When did Roose Turn Against the Starks?

[BryndenBFish]

I am going to watch for this the next time I read the second half of Game. But I don't believe Roose was purposefully killing his own men. This kind of thing is all too common in battle. Anybody recall this scene from Platoon...

You ignorant asshole! What the fuck coordinates you giving? You wasted a lot of people up there with your fucked-up fire mission! You know that? You know that? Ah, shit!

That scene from Platoon always reminded me of one of my favorite maxims learned from NCOs from my past. Friendly fire isn't. That said, in Roose's eyes, he isn't killing his own men; he's killing loyalist Stark soldiers - Glovers, Manderlys, Tallharts and Karstarks (who would still be loyal to Robb as Rickard Karstark hasn't committed his murders yet). It's a pattern of Roose's command to send Stark loyalists to endanger loyalist Stark bannermen and expendable soldiers: Harrenhal, Second Sack of Darry, Duskendale, Ruby Ford, upcoming battle of Winterfell. I think that Roose took on a more active role at the Battle of the Green Fork in showering friend and foe alike with arrows. He needed his own position to rise at the expense of dead Lannister and Northmen.

[BryndenBFish]

6000? IIRC when he passed the Moat he had somewhere between 3500-4000, a number of them being Karstark men.

In any case I can easily see Roose leaving Ramsay in the lurch. It's my personal opinion though that Roose is colluding with the Others, plenty of threads on this theory if you wanna have a look but gotta remember it's also a fantasy story with dragons, magic etc etc.

Ah, you're right. Confused the total # of soldiers that passed through the Neck from the Twins. (4000 Dreadfort men, 2000 Freys according to ADWD, Reek II). I do see some evidence of Roose's work with the Others -- the continual reminders of Roose's pale, cold, dead eyes being the most prominent. I tend to shy away from the magical parts of the story in doing character analysis, but it's certainly something that I'd like to become more knowledgeable of.

[Darkbringer]

Basically Roose knew that if he betrayed Robb while Robb was powerful, his head would decorate a spike. Roose would not be totally indisposed to a victory by Robb, he would definitely benefit under such a scenario. But he is ultimately the same as Tywin, perhaps even more predatory. As soon as Robb screwed up, he was looking for a profitable exit strategy. He never fully committed to battles under Robb, but neither were his actions immediately traitorous. The ancient vendetta between Stark and Bolton only underscores the difference in philosophy of the two houses, if the current generation is anything to go by.

[Waylin Stark]

Roose was never a diehard Stark loyalist. Surely he saw them as soft, honorable, and fated to make wrong choices from the start.

But once the war started, he saw an opportunity to become the Warden of the North, and no longer have to bend the knee to the Starks. Also, Robb's ignoring of his advice probably led him to switch sides anyways when he started seeing them as a doomed cause.

[Lost Melnibonean]

Roose wouldn't kill his own men but he most definitely got his rival lords and their men killed as often as possible

Even though it's true arrows could be fired at allies and enemies alike

It could be that Roose saw the Karstark spears about to go down and ordered those arrows in to prevent the enemy from coming through the line or flanking around until he could move up reserves or pull other forward elements back. That's maneuvering. Think about Tyrion's plan. He hoped that Tyrion's (and Gregor's?) troops would get decimated or routed and that an inexperienced battle commander would overreact sending additional elements to get around Tywin's left. Then Tywin could have sprung the trap by wheeling left and driving the enemy into the river. Both plans involved sacrifice.

[Frey Pie]

Ah, you're right. Confused the total # of soldiers that passed through the Neck from the Twins. (4000 Dreadfort men, 2000 Freys according to ADWD, Reek II). I do see some evidence of Roose's work with the Others -- the continual reminders of Roose's pale, cold, dead eyes being the most prominent. I tend to shy away from the magical parts of the story in doing character analysis, but it's certainly something that I'd like to become more knowledgeable of.

2000 Freys? Jeez that's pretty much half their total strength. Freys are dead in the water

What really stands out is a Theon chapter in Dance where Rooses eyes are described as dirty chips of ice, like the Others but dirtied to me. I personally believe the Night King had a child, which was likely seen as an abomination, and that child either started the Bolton line or married into it. Hence the enmity with the Starks. It also stands to reason that over the course of the three (??) or so years between when we first see them and now, they would be doing something. Having agents disrupting the structure south of the wall makes sense and would add a touch of realism

[Lost Melnibonean]

That scene from Platoon always reminded me of one of my favorite maxims learned from NCOs from my past. Friendly fire isn't. That said, in Roose's eyes, he isn't killing his own men; he's killing loyalist Stark soldiers - Glovers, Manderlys, Tallharts and Karstarks (who would still be loyal to Robb as Rickard Karstark hasn't committed his murders yet). It's a pattern of Roose's command to send Stark loyalists to endanger loyalist Stark bannermen and expendable soldiers: Harrenhal, Second Sack of Darry, Duskendale, Ruby Ford, upcoming battle of Winterfell. I think that Roose took on a more active role at the Battle of the Green Fork in showering friend and foe alike with arrows. He needed his own position to rise at the expense of dead Lannister and Northmen.

Yeah, that's what I'm going to watch for.

[Frey Pie]

It could be that Roose saw the Karstark spears about to go down and ordered those arrows in to prevent the enemy from coming through the line or flanking around until he could move up reserves or pull other forward elements back. That's maneuvering. Think about Tyrion's plan. He hoped that Tyrion's (and Gregor's?) troops would get decimated or routed and that an inexperienced battle commander would overreact sending additional elements to get around Tywin's left. Then Tywin could have sprung the trap by wheeling left and driving the enemy into the river. Both plans involved sacrifice.

Granted this is a very real possibility. However, we don't know if the Karstarks men were buckling or not. What we do know is that Roose got rival lords killed on purpose at the Ruby Ford, Duskendale and Darry. To me the GF is no different, although it isn't spelled out for us. With this in mind I tend towards agreeing with the Blackfish here

To be honest we might both be right. Roose is cold and calculating. I could easily see him killing some of his own men while attempting to hold the line, with the added bonus of rivals also being cut down

[thelittledragonthatcould]

2000 Freys? Jeez that's pretty much half their total strength. Freys are dead in the water

They've inherited the Riverrun and Darry lands so would also get additional soldiers from those 2 settlements.

[Frey Pie]

They've inherited the Riverrun and Darry lands so would also get additional soldiers from those 2 settlements.

True but Darry is pretty much now Lannister lands. In addition it's people have been decimated by the war, and as late as Dance they are continually troubled by bandits. Riverrun is in better condition (still not great) but the Freys will get very few men from here after what they did in the RW.

Look at the Siege of RR-after summoning all the Riverlords Daven has something like 1500 men

[BryndenBFish]

2000 Freys? Jeez that's pretty much half their total strength. Freys are dead in the water

What really stands out is a Theon chapter in Dance where Rooses eyes are described as dirty chips of ice, like the Others but dirtied to me. I personally believe the Night King had a child, which was likely seen as an abomination, and that child either started the Bolton line or married into it. Hence the enmity with the Starks. It also stands to reason that over the course of the three (??) or so years between when we first see them and now, they would be doing something. Having agents disrupting the structure south of the wall makes sense and would add a touch of realism

You might specify and say that the Freys are dead in the... lakes :smoking: , but I'll forego further puns. We know from the first book that wights can pass through the Wall, but I don't think there's evidence the Others can yet. However, I think Roose may become a collaborator with the Others to save his own... skin (okay, now I promise I'm done with puns). That's my pet theory anyhow.

[Mr Fixit]

Yeah, Roose brought 4,000 men max through Moat Cailin. Of those, I'd say at least a thousand are Karstark men and around 600 the guys he left to guard the Fords in ASoS under Kyle Condon and Ronnel Stout. Adding Ramsey's 600 Dreadfort garrison, it seems Boltons have no more than 3,000 men directly sworn to them.

As for Freys, Theon's ADwD chapter gives us a pretty precise number of some 1,400 men.

[BryndenBFish]

Yeah, Roose brought 4,000 men max through Moat Cailin. Of those, I'd say at least a thousand are Karstark men and around 600 the guys he left to guard the Fords in ASoS under Kyle Condon and Ronnel Stout. Adding Ramsey's 600 Dreadfort garrison, it seems Boltons have no more than 3,000 men directly sworn to them.

As for Freys, Theon's ADwD chapter gives us a pretty precise number of some 1,400 men.

I think 1400 Freys is lowballing their figures as Theon sees a group of 400 pass and then estimates a second group of a thousand or more. And those are the groups that Theon observes at Moat Cailin. I'd say the figure is closer to 2000.

[Mourneblade]

6000? IIRC when he passed the Moat he had somewhere between 3500-4000, a number of them being Karstark men.

In any case I can easily see Roose leaving Ramsay in the lurch. It's my personal opinion though that Roose is colluding with the Others, plenty of threads on this theory if you wanna have a look but gotta remember it's also a fantasy story with dragons, magic etc etc.

I am not yet sold on the collusion with the others idea. GRRM has already hinted that Roose does not fit with the type of Antagonist he needs to finish the series, commenting that Roose is not evil enough. Roose is extremely educated, and it is not impossible that he could have a supernatural side, given his thurst for knowledge and making sure no one else can gain the same knowledge by burning the books after, however I think it would lessen the impact of the events as they have unfolded.

Robb is undone by his choices and his youth, especially the oathbreaking which was foreshadowed at the beginning of the story. If Roose is immortal, or has super human powers, then Robb's choices become trivial, as he could never have been able to beat a "Super Villain".

[Mr Fixit]

I think 1400 Freys is lowballing their figures as Theon sees a group of 400 pass and then estimates a second group of a thousand or more. And those are the groups that Theon observes at Moat Cailin. I'd say the figure is closer to 2000.

Maybe. But 1,400 is the only figure we have; anything else is speculation. Even as is, Freys seem to have dubiously big numbers. We're told in AGoT they have a little less than 4,000. Even with losing some 1,000 men in the war (I'd say pretty reliable guesstimate; can elaborate if needed), they're besieging Riverrun and Seagard *and* sending at least 1,400 north.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Maybe. But 1,400 is the only figure we have; anything else is speculation. Even as is, Freys seem to have dubiously big numbers. We're told in AGoT they have a little less than 4,000. Even with losing some 1,000 men in the war (I'd say pretty reliable guesstimate; can elaborate if needed), they're besieging Riverrun and Seagard *and* sending at least 1,400 north.

They would be in a similar position to the Manderly's in the North. It has been speculated that White Harbors numbers have increased because of the amount of refugee's in the North, a similar situation could of happened in the Riverlands with refugee's gravitating towards the Twins(pretty much untouched during the war) and the Freys riches hiring more soldiers.

[Chaircat Meow]

Frey raised 4,000 at first so could have raised 2,000 more at a big push. Remember, the Umbrs raise 2,000 or so at first and between Mors and Crowfood have another 1,000 in DwD.

[The Broke Howard Hughes]

While I think that Roose had an opportunist streak to him, I also think the long history of animosity between Stark and Bolton played a part in Roose's decision to betray his liege lord and king. That said, I don't recall textual evidence of Roose wanting to become King in the North. Can you point me to a passage where this is mentioned?

I cannot. Sheer speculation on my part.

[Frances Bean Corbray]

I cannot. Sheer speculation on my part.

Yours and Lady Dustin's. Lady Dustin speculates that Roose might aspire to King in the North, but we have no indication from Roose himself that he sets his sights this far.

But then, that's exactly the sort of thing he would keep on the down low if he did want it. :)

[Mithras]

Roose said the Bloody Mummers died at Blackwater although they never fought there. He was implying that Tywin would soon punish them for betrayal (which he did). That should be an important point of return for Roose. Even Freys were arguing Robb should bend the knee to Tywin and that was before than they got the news of Robb broke his agreement and married Jeyne.