Winds of winter is "almost certainly years away".

[Hagen of Tronje]

Pretty much. Let's break it down, assuming (generously) a nine-season show, that GRRM is going to finish the series, and that GRRM can finish the series in seven books:

1. Scenario 1: Seasons 5 and 6 are only AFFC/ADWD, released in 2015 and 2016, Season 7 is TWOW and beyond. Season 7 is written in early 2016, aired in 2017. GRRM has until 2016 to get the writers plot points for TWOW, and until early 2017 to release TWOW to stay ahead of the show. GRRM has until 2018 to get the writers plot points for ADOS, and until early 2019 to release ADOS to stay ahead of the show.

2. Scenario 2: Season 6 substantially gets into TWOW material, released in 2016, written in early 2015. GRRM has until 2015 to get the writers plot points for TWOW, and until early 2016 to release TWOW to stay ahead of the show. GRRM has until 2017 to get the writers plot points for ADOS, and until early 2018 to release ADOS to stay ahead of the show.

One minor correction: The writing for the show starts in autumn.

I also think season 6 will cover the second half oft ADWD and the first half of TWOW. They won't stretch AFFC/ADWD over two seasons. So they will need TWOW material or plot points in autumn 2014.

[Cas Stark]

Again, they're generous estimates. GOT is incredibly expensive, but it's also HBO's flagship show at this point, and incredibly popular. That could change, granted, especially when the narrative starts to sag around AFFC and ADWD, and if viewers start deserting in droves then even Season 7 might be iffy. As it is, though, I'm comfortable with a nine-season guess, at least for the purposes of argument.

Wouldn't that make it HBOs longest running show by far? Sopranos went 6 years. I can't see 9 years, I don't think that is realistic unless the viewership jumps again by a large margin. This is year 4 and they have already stolen plot from Dance. Seven years seems the most likely to me, 8 the max. Books 5 and 6 are weak on plot and action to begin with.

[Newstar]

One minor correction: The writing for the show starts in autumn.

I also think season 6 will cover the second half oft ADWD and the first half of TWOW. They won't stretch AFFC/ADWD over two seasons. So they will need TWOW material or plot points in autumn 2014.

Huh, for some reason I thought they started in January of the year before airing. If the lead time's even longer than that, then yes, it's going to be a big problem.

Books 5 and 6 are weak on plot and action to begin with.

Agreed. It's funny when the books are adapted how their weaknesses and more problematic aspects are exposed. It will be interesting to see how ruthlessly the showrunners edit those books down for adaptation, and just how much fat they trim. :D

Seven years seems the most likely to me, 8 the max.

I think they'll be willing to go to eight, based on various interviews I've seen. Eight means TWOW material by Season 6 at the latest, I agree.

[Cas Stark]

Huh, for some reason I thought they started in January of the year before airing. If the lead time's even longer than that, then yes, it's going to be a big problem.

Agreed. It's funny when the books are adapted how their weaknesses and more problematic aspects are exposed. It will be interesting to see how ruthlessly the showrunners edit those books down for adaptation, and just how much fat they trim. :D

I think they'll be willing to go to eight, based on various interviews I've seen. Eight means TWOW material by Season 6 at the latest, I agree.

In a certain light, the last two books are better for TV for that reason....less happens so there is not the need to take a hacksaw to the action as there was in Clash and Swords...I would think it would be much easier to adapt the last two books for TV since there is not that much "action" to cut, they're certainly not going to have hours and hours of Brienne wandering around asking about the Sansa.

[Newstar]

In a certain light, the last two books are better for TV for that reason....less happens so there is not the need to take a hacksaw to the action as there was in Feast and Swords...I would think it would be much easier to adapt the last two books for TV since there is not that much "action" to cut, they're certainly not going to have hours and hours of Brienne wandering around asking about the Sansa.

(Spoilers for Season 4)

Brienne's quest starts in Season 4, although I don't know when exactly. There were some photographs of Brienne and Pod's actors in a grassy field, as well as that shot from the featurette of Brienne kitted out with new armour. It will be interesting to see just how far they get with her storyline in Season 4.

[Azor Ahoy!]

You guys can burn me to R'hllor if you want, but:

I really wouldn't mind all that much if the show passed the books. The major advantage of the books has always been the detail and lack of budgetary limits, neither of which will be 'ruined' if they are published after the show covers them. Also, it may be because I'm a fast reader and already afraid of finishing TWOW too fast once I get it, but I would like for once to watch an episode of GOT without knowing what's to come, and to actually gasp at shocking turns, and to have to wait a week to find out what's next. With the book, the temptation to turn the page would just be overwhelming.

At least we can be reasonably positive the show will give us some sort of ending. A season of the show isn't going to take 5 years to make.

[Cas Stark]

That trailer made me feel like I was going to have a seizure things were in and out so fast, LOL.

Yeah, the whole thing sucks, it seems unfair to say I'm disappointed in GRRM since the whole thing is his creation and there would be no books, better, best, less good, if not for him. But, I am disappointed, mostly because I keep seeing him do random stuff that is clearly showing he's not writing. And I am also very apprehensive that he's not going to return to books 1-3 form, but stay in the bloated 5-6 form.

It's hard to imagine him letting the show finish his story, but then, he has routinely been unrealistic about his writing schedule since he wrote himself into a corner in Essos...so it's hard to imagine now he can write himself out of it in time either. Quite the conundrum.

[mormont]

[mod] Can we get back to the topic, please?

The topic is not the writing for the show. That's a subject the show forums explore exhaustively. This thread should be kept solely to discussion of the news in the OP. [/mod]

[Hagen of Tronje]

I guess the thing is that the news affects both TWOW and the TV show. Maybe we need another thread in the GOT subforum, so we can focus on the implications for TWOW here.

[sifth]

All these side projects are bs, who needs twoiaf? Really, who needs it? It seems like that is just a way to make some money for nothing. The show is going to catch him and will do so in two or three years. Even if he got WoW out, he will never get AdOS out in time. In fact I doubt we will ever see a dream of spring.

been saying that for the past 5 months

too late now though, GRRM clearly feels the world needs Old Mars, Rogues, The World Book and all of the others more than the Winds of Winter. That or they're simply easier for him to write/edit, lol

guess we'll just have to wait until 2016 for The Winds of Winter and count ourselves lucky, lol

[Cas Stark]

been saying that for the past 5 months

too late now though, GRRM clearly feels the world needs Old Mars, Rogues, The World Book and all of the others more than the Winds of Winter. That or they're simply easier for him to write/edit, lol

guess we'll just have to wait until 2016 for The Winds of Winter and count ourselves lucky, lol

I think "easier" is the answer. He is distracting himself from the main project because he has NOT solved his writer's issues, whatever they are in reality. So, he procrastinates on these other side projects.

[Hagen of Tronje]

I don't know. They are more than sideprojects to him and his work goes beyond ASOIAF. Also, he has stated that the sideprojects weren't the cause for the delays of ADWD. TWOW might be another matter. At least he has finished them all apart from the new Wild Cards edition.

[Crimson King]

I don't know. They are more than sideprojects to him and his work goes beyond ASOIAF. Also, he has stated that the sideprojects weren't the cause for the delays oft ADWD. TWOW might be another matter. At least he has finished them all apart from the new Wild Cards edition.

I think GRRM has pretty well explained the cause of ADWD's slow speed in this blog post: http://grrm.livejournal.com/217066.html

It seems that the rewriting and revising take even more time than the writing itself.

[D-Shiznit]

HBO is going to make the best show possible, it's first priority is to it's audience, it's not gonna stretch out secondary story lines to cater to Martin and the readers. Season 8 is the max the show will go, Season 6 has to be at least 50% TWoW for that to work. It's only a matter of time before the TV audience gets sick of waiting for the Dany's invasion of Westeros and Jon/Whitewalkers showdown. D&D are going to have to start cashing those cheques soon and play out the main storylines.

[Cas Stark]

I think GRRM has pretty well explained the cause of ADWD's slow speed in this blog post: http://grrm.livejournal.com/217066.html

It seems that the rewriting and revising take even more time than the writing itself.

Eh, it doesn't really, because his first three books were done in half the time or less.

It's also quite alarming if he went through line by line and still thought that we needed a million "where do whores go" and half a million "nuncles" and paragraph length descriptions of food and decided to end the book on a fairly lame "cliffhanger" because it was too long.

The only glimmer of hope from that is that he already had a lot of the story written, but that has been the case also for the last several books and instead of making things faster, made them slower.

[Jake Chambers]

To be fair, if my fanbase was as rabid and demanding as ASOIAF fans, I'd be disclined to post status updates, too. However, I'd probably go the opposite route and post annoyingly detailed, hour-by-hour status updates of me going about my day, running errands, etc...doing everything but writing except for the occasional entry ("Wrote a paragraph describing a feast. Rewrote sequence of courses three times, taking into account lamb symbolism relative to boar symbolism. Omitted lamprey pie mention after careful consideration."). Pretty sure that would drive some fans to a nervous breakdown in short order. :D

Ooooh this would be AWESOME! Hahaha.

[SansaSeastar]

What did the women (Robin Hobb right?) say exactly? I can't open the link. & how does she know this? Sorry if this was already answered before but I couldn't find it in the post...

[PhoenixDark]

I was bored so I did some math.

If GRRM writes TWOW with the speed of ... it'll be ready around …:

ASOS: 1st quarter of 2014

ACOK: 4th quarter of 2014

AFFC: 4th quarter of 2017

ADWD: 2nd quarter of 2018

Counting by the statement in October 2012 "I have 400 pages ready" and assuming ... of those are from ADWD, TWOW will be ready around …:

0 pages: 1st quarter of 2015

100 pages: 1st quarter of 2016

200 pages: 1st quarter of 2018

Counting by his statement in April 2013 “I have a quarter ready” TWOW will be released around …:

2nd quarter of 2017

Counting by Ser Davos’ actor’s statement in April 2013 “GRRM told me he’s halfway through” TWOW will be released around …:

3rd quarter of 2014

Martin's statement of April 2013 is probably the most accurate. That would be around 0,78 pages a day, which is faster than either AFFC or ADWD. Yay! Counting from here we can assume that in October when Martin said he had "400 pages ready", around 230 of those were completely new and for TWOW.

Of course, Martin has been very busy during the last two years so he might speed up slightly now that all tours relating to ADWD are over. He also has a 5 month free gap now. If we assume he'd written on every other day up until April 2013 since starting TWOW, he'd be writing around 1,5 pages every day he does write. This would mean that he might get up to 225 pages written during that time.

I once heard him say that whenever he has a good flow, he gets to an average of 2,8 pages a day (This was during the ADWD period btw), which would mean he might get 420 pages written during these 5 months.

I don't think this is a fair assessment. This is better, and based on Martin's past comments on ADWD's progress as well as his schedule: http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/1ttc0e/no_spoilers_been_a_while_since_a_release_date_of/cebq6dd

Whoever is claiming Martin only writes "half a page" a day is incorrect, and has no evidence to back that up. Martin's progress on ADWD picked up in the later years, and got even faster once he solved the Knot issue. IF Martin doesn't have a similar huge conceptual/constructional problem like the Mereenese Knot in TWOW, I believe it's fair to assume he is at least writing 2.8 pages a day - which was one of his best paces during the ADWD writing process before solving the Knot.

[dog-days]

This is a bizarre turn of events, to be sure. It's tempting to try to surmise what we can from it, but a close reading of her Twitter post demonstrates three things that we can infer with reasonable certainty:

1. Arya will not complete her Faceless Man training

Jaime will not return to Kings Landing before Tommen dies

Melisandre will not abandon Stannis in favor of Jon, because Jon is now a direwolf, and he will never want to be a human again because he's discovered that he can lick himself.

Just discovered the precise noise that Merlot makes when spat at the computer screen. Thanks!

[Esa1996]

Although the question of when TWOW will be released certainly has a mathematical side, I think that there are simply too many variables at play to be able yo say that the math never lies. Especially when the statistics are so old; whe haven't had an actual update since April 2013, and no actual numbers since October 2012. This huge gaps in statistics makes this already highly hypothetical exercise even less reliable. I think we should wait and see.

The "math never lies" was a pun on Sirius from the HP series when he says "The map never lies", and I thought it fitted there although I do agree with you that there's too many variables to make an accurate estimation on when TWOW will be released. That's why I included so many different writing speeds and the date that they would get TWOW ready. Personally I think it'll be released in late 2015 or sometime around 2016.