Roose knew Arya was highborn/maybe true identity?

[Pod The Impaler]

The girl was involved in the freaking weasel soup. If anything, he should have considered that the possibility of an escape was fairly greater than zero. Actually, she did escape. The notoriously calculating man failed in calculating probabilities.

True enough, although I think he doubted she was a mastermind or anything. As far as she knew, she made the soup. There's nothing that marks her as the initiator of Harrenhal's overthrow. Even if he did think that, he would put it down to being a Young Wolf sympathizer among the captured peasants, not that this scruffy stair-scubber was someone important. Maybe she's a little smarter and bolder than the rest, so he rewards her with less grueling work.

[JaegrM]

True enough, although I think he doubted she was a mastermind or anything. As far as she knew, she made the soup. There's nothing that marks her as the initiator of Harrenhal's overthrow. Even if he did think that, he would put it down to being a Young Wolf sympathizer among the captured peasants, not that this scruffy stair-scubber was someone important. Maybe she's a little smarter and bolder than the rest, so he rewards her with less grueling work.

kind of the point I was making, she's obviously a northern sympathizer, if anything she gained Roose's trust by doing this.

[Pod The Impaler]

Plus she had no fear of leeches, which means more points in her favour.

[King Pellinore]

"I have no further need for a cup bearer but Lady Dustin may have need of a scullery maid" would be the response I would expect if Roose had any idea who Arya was. If she were a chip he wanted to tuck away for later, Harrenhal was not the place to keep her and I still don't think he would leave it up to chance for her to die at the Goat's hands. His telling her she'll remain was the final clue to me that he had no idea who she was.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

First, I think that if Roose suspected that she was highborn, it would be easy to deduct that she's Arya Stark. A highborn who hides her identity among smallfolk and doesn't like lions and prefers the treatment that the peasants get in war times (which is beyond awful) than to reveal herself, must surely have very good reasons to hide. As it happens, there is a Stark girl around her age who's missing and wanted. He would have to be really stupid not to make the connection.

So, let's assume for a moment that Roose knows who she is.

I mentioned the weasel soup as a means to say that the girl has a proven capacity to cause trouble. It doesn't matter what was her exact contribution, what it matters is that she was part of it. You just don't leave such a person unsupervised, especially when said person does not trust you. She didn't reveal her identity to him when this would be the most logical thing to do, shouldn't this be an alarm? Instead, he leaves her run around the castle, reading his letters and carrying his messages and overhearing potentially inculpatory conversations. It doesn't make any sense.

Gregor Clegane and Amory Lorch are not really known as softies, but not only has she survived captivity under them, she has also had the guts to conspire and act against them. Since she doesn't trust him, why wouldn't she attempt anything of the like against him as well, especially when he tells her he's leaving her behind? Again, no one to keep an eye on her. Just rely on the possibilities? Yet, Arya Stark has defied all odds - she has escaped Kings Landing and has survived thus far. Roose should have used his so excellent observation capacity to notice that this particulat girl has better survival skills than most. But even if he attributes her survival and successful hiding to sheer luck, then it should be a cautionary tale against relying on odds. But no, he just does nothing and leaves her to her fate. So much for the cautious Roose...

Verdict: He either doesn't know nor suspects anything, or he's dumber than Victarion.

As he has proven himself to be quite competent, I suppose it's the first.

[ARYa_Nym]

Regarding this part, I always thought that Arya was deliberately downplaying her highborn speech to enhance her deception; she knows all this stuff, but wants to feign being someone more ignorant than she actually is.

She used proper grammar and without hesitation in AGoT so he didn't really need to teach her.

"She managed a stiff little bow to Myrcella. "By your leave, my lady."

[evita mgfs]

Very good discussions. Whereas I did not "feel" that Roose recognized Arya as a Stark, I did think he found her an "amusing" enigma among the captives. I did and still do see Arya's preparation in playing a "part" beginning early on, and she plays a role as cupbearer here, which is a part she will play in the HoB&W. It is a role she plays several times: providing drink to others.

[Thucydides]

It seems that the dispute seems to be over whether people think that Roose would leave her to die in Harrenhal or whether he would preserve her to use later, or kill later if she proves not to be useful.

I think it has been established that Roose has a motive to leave her behind to die (fArya is less troublesome than Arya, Arya could be a liability for people who rally around "Ned's girl," and with fArya as part of the current deal with the Lannisters, Arya being alive my muck things up because Arya could be too valuable to the Lannisters to marry off to a Bolton).

So now all you have on the other side is a bunch of people insisting that there's no way that Roose would do that, because he's obviously too smart to entrust her fate to accident. That's fine and all, but if that's the sum of your argument, than all your really doing is flexing your Roose fanboy muscles.

[The Mother of The Others]

So, what if he sensed she had darkness in her like he does? And he wanted to briefly mentor her along whatever path to future evil his cupbearer was on? (Thinking awww, how cute.)

Or what if his investigation of the weasel soup told him she had to have capable help, and he hadn't identified that helper yet, so was loathe to cross her for fear the phantom helper would again capsize Harrenhal (not knowing her FM backup was gone).

[Ramsay Gimp]

He had no clue. Roose barely notices her, let alone takes interest in her, after he chooses her to serve him. She may as well be part of the furniture.

Hence his shock when she questions him about her future, which wouldn't be out of line if she were Arya Stark - but she's not, she's just a cupbearer.

[complexphoenix]

I think he had enough clues to figure it out. He knows that her speech style is highborn, he knows she is ten years old, he knows that Starks typically have brown hair, gray eyes and long faces, he was familiar with Ned and his look, and he knows that she favors wolves over lions and is willing to take personal risks to aid the Northern cause. That's enough information to conclude that "Nan" is actually Arya Stark.

If he did figure it out, it would make sense for him to play along with her ruse in order to conceal her identity from other lords who were more loyal to the Starks; but telling her that he didn't plan on taking her North with him, but on leaving her to the Brave Companions, was really dumb unless he was actually hoping that she'd do something stupid and get herself killed. As it was, men from the Brave Companions were sent to hunt her after she fled and were killed by Nymeria. I seriously doubt Roose anticipated the direwolf's actions. It may be that he actually preferred a fake Stark to a real one, because he knows that a fake Stark is dependent on him and no threat if she escapes, whereas a real Stark can raise the North against him if she gets away.

[Mithras]

Robett Glover didnot recognize her Stark appearance either. And Satin says my lord all the time. He is an educated whore, not a highborn.

[IRON BANK]

no roose did not know.

[shearstone]

If he did recognise her what could he have done about it? At the time he meets her the castle is still full of Stark loyalists who would be quick to escort Arya back to Riverrun so he can't exactly imprison her without someone asking questions. If anything Arya revealing herself to the northmen would have been a problem for Roose as it gives Robb a living heir. Now if she had revealed herself after Duskendale it would have been a different story as there were few loyalists left so he could have taken her with him to the twins and made her a hostage once the RW goes down but after the Sack of Winterfell and the RW a fake Arya is just as useful as the real one.

[conon394]

I think he had enough clues to figure it out. He knows that her speech style is highborn, he knows she is ten years old, he knows that Starks typically have brown hair, gray eyes and long faces, he was familiar with Ned and his look, and he knows that she favors wolves over lions and is willing to take personal risks to aid the Northern cause. That's enough information to conclude that "Nan" is actually Arya Stark.

If he did figure it out, it would make sense for him to play along with her ruse in order to conceal her identity from other lords who were more loyal to the Starks; but telling her that he didn't plan on taking her North with him, but on leaving her to the Brave Companions, was really dumb unless he was actually hoping that she'd do something stupid and get herself killed. As it was, men from the Brave Companions were sent to hunt her after she fled and were killed by Nymeria. I seriously doubt Roose anticipated the direwolf's actions. It may be that he actually preferred a fake Stark to a real one, because he knows that a fake Stark is dependent on him and no threat if she escapes, whereas a real Stark can raise the North against him if she gets away.

Only if you are looking for or expect to find her and even then its thin. In retrospect things add up but without any such expectations and no pictures and every reason to expect she was dead they are not real decent clues. Of the many people who have seen her briefly only Yoren in fact recognizes who she is and event would be a big clue at that. Not to mention its very likely Yoren has seen her many times. It's one thing to suspect or recognize Jamie when you know where he is on the run at but quite another to recognize a girl who is dead.

[Nucky Thompson]

Someone above pointed out that Roose should have known because there was a missing Stark girl about the same age in the capital. That's incorrect. The Lannisters kept Arya's disappearance a secret - to keep their good bargaining position when exchanging hostages. Sure, Tywin could have told Roose via raven, but why would he do so? The Lannisters can't be sure that Roose will keep up his end of the deal, and even if they were, why put themselves at a disadvantage instead of paying with false coin (fake Arya)?

And back on topic, I don't think that Roose knew. He has no way of recognizing this particular noble. And even though he surmised that she isn't as lowborn as advertised, his interest in a cupbearer was rather trivial at best, he had bigger fish to fry at that particular moment. And as already stated above, it shouldn't be kept against him, the odds of Arya Stark escaping from the capital and ending up as a servant in Harrenhall, are rather slim. What is more, her survival under Clegane and Lorch wasn't due to courage or anything, as speculated above, it was pure luck, so her promotion to a cupbearer might have been an appropriate reward from Roose's point of view. After all, I think that this particular aspect of her adventure was because we had to evidence through a POV character how Roose burned that book. It will probably prove very important later on, Qyburn should have been really useful to be regarded with such high status under Bolton.

[The Weirwoods Eyes]

I can't say I particularily believe he realised who she was or not, But one reason he'd prefer fArya over real Arya is the fact that Jeyne is far more likely to bear Ramsey a child quickly. She is a couple of years older than real Arya who has yet to begin her periods. Jeyne more than likely is already menstruating and thus he can assume she is likely to get pregnant relatively quickly post wedding, Sansa is thus far refusing to sleep with Tyrion and Tyrion is not pushing it. I imagine that its a race to see which son can impregnate a Stark fastest, in terms of securing their individual claim on Winterfell. Roose doesn't necessarily know he has a good chance of beating Tywin in that little race with Real Arya, as we don't know if the rumours of Tyrion & Sansa's non consummation have spread ( I doubt it though, local gossip in KL wouldn't leak out without an insider sending raven mail.) So the older presumably fertile fArya would to him seem a better probability than 10 year old not yet menstruating Arya, she might begin her moonblood within the year it might be 3 or 4 years though, Roose has no way of knowing but Jeyne who is older either will already be there or won't take as long to reach womanhood. She's the safer bet in regard to this element of the Winterfell claim.

Not that I'm for this theory I'm not against it just struck me that no one had considered this when weighing up why Roose might not be so quick to make a grab for real Arya.

[Iona]

With regards to Arya's speech, it's important to keep in mind that she was never the "proper lady" to begin with. Ever since the journey from WF to KL we've been told that Arya makes friends and talks with potboys, stablehands and butchers' boys. Add to that the fact that she had spend quite a fair amount of time with the men bound for the Wall, so her speech has most certainly changed quite a bit. I bet she got rid of her "ladyspeech", if there was any left, when she was introduced to the robbers and rapists.

[Faceless Man Friday]

Very good discussions. Whereas I did not "feel" that Roose recognized Arya as a Stark, I did think he found her an "amusing" enigma among the captives. I did and still do see Arya's preparation in playing a "part" beginning early on, and she plays a role as cupbearer here, which is a part she will play in the HoB&W. It is a role she plays several times: providing drink to others.

I agree and believe that this is the most that can be said as to Roose recognizing Arya. The true revelation is this post, however, is the observation of Arya providing drink to others. She does do that a lot. I wonder how that is going to play out. Any ideas?

[Umberhulk]

The largest error being made here is probably "the Stark look". Since photographs are kinda rare in Westeros, and I don't think the entire North has a bunch of paintings hanging around their houses and castles, the Stark Look isn't something everyone is familiar with. Now, I know you're going to say Roose has been around Ned and whoever else, because he's their bannerman. That's true, but if I we're to show you prince william and prince charles in the middle of a war. And you've only seen prince Charles now and then, you're not going to recognize William instantly as being his son, especially when he's 10.

Also, regarding this "Stark Look", starks are first men, so it's reasonable to assume the entire North looks somewhat alike. Then, there's the point that, being the Powerhouse for 8.000 years orm so there's gonna be a lot of Stark blood in the North. Most noble houses have Stark blood, and there are bound to have been lots and lots of bastards all over the place. And don't bring up any crap about, they're all gonna be named Snow. Some whore in a brothel with a Stark bastard won't name her son Snow.

Now then, Roose finds a little girl who speaks proper, just as it is possible in todays age to speak proper while being born in some ghetto in NYC, it's going to be possible to speak proper in Westeros while being a commoner. Perhaps she grew up in a castle and by speaking with the nobles she picked up on that way of speaking.

Which is still besides the point. The entire North is waging war to get Sansa and Arya back. So if anyone who would or could recognize any of them and had the chance to capture them. They would, just like the BwB took her along and the Hound took her along. A man like Roose would've had quite a few options if he had her, and so would Tywin or Walder Frey. If you expect a goose to lay golden eggs, you're going to keep it around, not take a chance with losing her.