Jon Snow ReRead Project! Part 5! (DwD)

[Ibbison from Ibben]

on Jon being difficult to read -

I would suggest that the reason that Mel and Sam (and others) have difficulty perceiving what Jon is thinking is that Jon himself is conflicted. This might be an opportune time to check back with the Duty vs Love/"LC Snow" vs "Jon" comparisons we looked at earlier in aDwD.

Ever since the Slynt incident, "LC Snow" has been absolutely dominating Jon's personality. He has immersed himself in Duty. The reappearance of Mance seems to have prompted a resurfacing of "Jon". Even though Jon was perpetrating a deception at the time, his association with Mance, Ygritte, and the wildings in aSoS appealed to his "Jon" side. There were many aspects of wilding culture and Mance's worldview that Jon admired, but they also were in direct opposition to his Duty. Mance himself betrayed his Duty. And yet, Jon saw a certain nobility in Mance's cause - saving the wildings from the Others.

Then we have the fight in the yard between Jon and GlamMance. I suppose we should look at this as symbolizing Jon's internal struggle between "Jon" and "LC Snow", with Mance representing the "Jon" side. The fact that Mance is disguised would seem to indicate that Jon isn't fully recognizing that he is still struggling with this. He thought "Jon" had been safely stowed away in favor of "LC Snow". The fact that "Jon" (Mance) defeated "LC Snow" (Jon) foreshadows Jon's choice at the end of aDwD.

And then we have Jon in the room with Mel and Mance. Mance is still representing the side of Jon he thought he had put away, but now he's back, and as strong as ever. Jon is being tempted here, but who's doing the tempting, Mel or Mance? Mel offers a chance to save Arya. Mance, simply by being present, offers ... what? An example of someone who lived a life of freedom. An example of a free agent, who can exercise his talent in a good cause without being saddled with archaic restrictions and useless subordinates. (Of course, Jon knows very well that Mance had to deal with subordinates when he led the wildings, and now Mance is not really free at all - he's a prisoner of Stannis and is bound magically to Mel.) "Jon" desperately wants to be free to do himself what Mance is offering to do for him. Jon can't do that; "LC Snow" won't let him. So now, instead of merely representing "Jon" symbolically, Mance will actually take "Jon's" place physically and become "Jon's surrogate.

If Mance represents the "Jon" side of Jon, who represents the "LC Snow" side? Ned, of course. And Ned's dead. Some day Jon may realize that Ned struggled with the conflict between Duty and Love the same way Jon is. Maybe.

[butterbumps!]

Though I dont disagree with you about Mel being short sighted and the manner in which the mission was presented, I gotta ask, given the current situation how do you imagine that the Arya mission could have been rationalized as part of Jons- and by extension the NW- strategy? Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but it seems to me this could only have been possible had Jon taken a more active and public role in Stannis support since the beginning. But Jon did no such thing in an effort to maintain the appearance of neutrality. Presenting the rescue in service of Stannis cause is one thing, but presenting it aligned in the interest of the Watch and the bigger picture (keeping in mind that so far they have tried to keep themselves apart from Stannis actions, at least publically) is highly implausible IMO.

Given the state of affairs between Stannis, the Watch and the IT staying put was really the best option for Jon and the Watch, with the only other viable option was getting his hands dirty and involving himself fully in at least the planning of the mission. Jon ended up doing the worst, which is keeping on the sidelines while letting others run the show in an effort to keep his hands clean, to borrow Ragnoraks expression.

I don't mean it's good strategically for the Watch as a one-to-one, but good for them via its benefit to Stannis. As in it undermines Bolton authority, which helps Stannis' cause, and Stannis' success insulates the Watch from Bolton-Lannister retaliation, and ostensibly adds more power to stand against the Others. So what I was speaking to was just connecting those pieces-- taking Arya away from Boltons serves Stannis' purpose, and his purpose aligns with Watch interests.

I think Shadowcat is right, though-- Jon is explicitly not recognizing her as a political entity because he wants her removed from the political game entirely.

One other thing that bothers me about this is that we don't know what the 3 of them understood the parameters of the mission to be exactly. Mance and Mel's discussion of her Long Lake vision makes the operation seem pretty small and not terribly involved. That is, their discussion made this sound like a simple interception of a girl who's already escaped, heading to the Wall and in Umber land. I think interception of a fleeing party heading to the Wall wouldn't be a problem for a Watchman to do if the fleeing party was already in Watch territory of the Gift; I think the issue here is that the interception would occur in private lands.

So even if we're looking at this from Jon's POV such that Arya isn't seen as a political entity, the Mel-Mance conversation about this makes it seem only marginally taboo in the first place-- the technicality would be that they'd intercept her outside of Watch lands, but not in Bolton territory.

I've always read this as Jon's believing he allowed Mance to go on an interception mission-- that is, I thought Jon was told the parameters Mel and Mance discuss, which have nothing to do with Winterfell, and everything to do with a simple interception south of the Gift. But what do Mel and Mance understand of the mission? Mance says he has a "certain ploy [he] has in mind," which, in the context of the discussion, comes across as though his "ploy" is to get Arya to trust him and trick their pursuers. Jon knew at least something about this, because we'll see him procure Mance his requested spearwives. But does this imply that Mance has a different end in mind at the outset? If so, did Mel know and want him to infiltrate Winterfell? I guess I'm asking if Mel and Mance together duped Jon, or if Mance duped Mel and Jon?

[ArabellaVidal]

on Jon being difficult to read -

If Mance represents the "Jon" side of Jon, who represents the "LC Snow" side? Ned, of course. And Ned's dead. Some day Jon may realize that Ned struggled with the conflict between Duty and Love the same way Jon is. Maybe.

His "Lord's face"?

[Lykos]

ArabellaVidal, yes I think that´s what made Ned special in this story. He was a loving and kind father, but donned his "Lord´s face" to do his duty.

This is quite uncommon in the story. Tywin and Stannis seem to never take off their "Lord´s face", maybe that´s why their human "weaknesses" and ambitions interfere with their duty?

I think there is more that sets Jon apart. I had done some research on the citadel´s white ravens that Bran Vras had connected with Mormont´s Raven. I came across a greek proverb in the German wiki.

Thatton eēn leukous korakas ptēnas te chelōnas. Raven´s will rather be white, turtles winged.

Erasmus of Rotterdam mentions in his Adagia the ancient greek physician and philosopher Galen, (who is quite interesting for his views on the inseperability of body and mind, and his work on the circulatory system - bloodletting-.)

Galen comments disparagingly on a certain Lykos, who neither agreed with Erasistratos, nor said the correct thing (das Richtige) himself.

"Lykos resembles the well known White Raven, who cannot be with the ravens for his colour and for his size not with the doves."

Calling to mind maester Aemon´s speech on doves and ravens - love and duty of course.

Erasmus posits that the expression "White Raven" applies to individualists that won´t conform to the general view.

Jon as a bastard, as a "traitor" to two (or more) sides is neither here nor there and the thing I like about him, is that he doesn´t try to integrate into one of the sides but to integrate the sides themselves, a concept alien to most of the characters.

ETA: With the exception of the Reeds of course, who are one step ahead with their - we are one but different - approach.

I hate these stupid mountains of yours, Prince Bran."
"Yesterday you said you loved them."
"Oh, I do. My lord father told me about mountains, but I never saw one till now. I love them more than I can say."
Bran made a face at her. "But you just said you hated them."
"Why can't it be both?" Meera reached up to pinch his nose.
"Because they're different," he insisted. "Like night and day, or ice and fire."
"If ice can burn," said Jojen in his solemn voice, "then love and hate can mate. Mountain or marsh, it makes no matter. The land is one."
"One," his sister agreed, "but over wrinkled."

[Maia]

On Mance:

If the King is allowed to absolve someone from NW vows, KG vows, or even pardon a KG who had killed the previous king,

Yea, I don't think that a king is supposed to have authority to absolve somebody from NW vows. NW was formed when there were many kings, who would have loved to use it in their interests, release enemies of their enemies, etc. That had to be nipped in the bud for NW as a neutral organization supported by whole Westeros to be able to exist for any length of time.

Obviously, by the time of Five Kings and now it's aftermath various claimants believed that current weakness of NW would allow them to get away with breaking laws governing it, but that's the case of might over right and/or possibly delusions of power.

KG is different - it was formed by a king on the Iron Throne, it's purpose is to guard the same and "serve his pleasure", there are precedents of people getting thrown out of KG for deriliction of duty and being forced to join the NW (Lucamore the Lusty and traditionalist Ned wanted the same for Jaime). There is no question that a king has abolute authority and jurisdiction over KG.

I mean, really, would the Watch have ever entertained negotiations with the wildlings in terms of offering protection without leverage of force?

I am not entirely sure why wildlings, unlike anybody else, who has supported NW for millenia, should be entitled to free lunch? Did _they_ offer to support NW in exchange for protection? Of course not. On the contrary, they have done everything they could to make NW's life miserable. It takes 2 to tango.

His ends were to save the wildlings, which put him into conflict with the Watch, who are the gatekeepers of safety, not to destroy the Watch.

Nope, Mance never claimed that he deserted to protect the wildlings. He said himself that he did it because he was sick of following rules. And I guess that his close brush with death made him want to experience and enjoy life to it's fullest.

Nor do we know at what point he started to attack the NW and raid over the Wall - was it only after he had learned about the danger of the Others, or was it initially just to bolster his social position among the wildlings?

Now, IMHO Mance is a tragic figure in certain respects - i.e. once he became aware of the true danger, he _might_ have been the ideal person to inform NW and broker an alliance with the wildlings... if he hadn't turned on NW first. A truly selfless person might have still tried it, even if price for getting NW and wildlings working together against the Others had been his head. But Mance is not that selfless.

Even though he had to know that chances of the wildlings breaking through the Wall, settling behind it and _not_ being subsequently slaughtered by the Northmen were slim, he still chose that route. His ego would allow nothing less.

And yes, I am sure that Mance could have rally some of the remaining wildlings and brought them over. The question is, would it have been a positive thing, if they had subsequently turned on and slaughtered the NW and it's closest neighbors? Not IMHO.

And nobody had any reason to think that Mance would not do it. He has done it before, oaths before the heart tree are nothing to him and "his kind of honour" clearly doesn't apply to non-wildlings.

In fact, I see strong analogy of the notion that Mance should have been spared and used to Robert pardoning Jaime Lannister and letting him remain in KG. IMHO, YMMV.

And, actually, speaking of Jon's alleged belief that he was _only_ sending Mance to fetch Arya from the New Gift, shouldn't the demand for half a dozen young and fair spearwives have rung alarm bells? I mean, Arya _might_ have trusted the women more after her supposed ordeals, but she never cared about people's appearance. Shouldn't it have been a huge, blinking warning sign to Jon that Mance intended to do more than just meet his sister on NW land and escort her safely to the Wall? I really don't think that he can claim complete ignorance about it, frankly.

It is exactly the kind of scenario that I have been bringing up re: Mance, BTW. He is untrustworthy where the "southeners" are concerned and has his own plans. Which might have huge negative reprecussions for NW.

However, I think Jon's doing this would be a complete moot point given who he is, if not something that calls attention to himself as another "Stark target" to finish the job of "Stark" extinguishing.

No, I can't agree with this. It is inconscionable on LC's part to gamble everything that NW had learned about the impending Long Night and everything he has so far achieved with the wildlings on Stannis winning.

Because if he loses and no dialog with the winners has been established beforehand, Jon would look like an oathbreaker who threw his lot with Stannis and all his works are going to be destroyed and whatever information about the Others he'd try to impart would look like like self-serving lies and discounted.

And Jon has no reason to think that he'd be a target for the Boltons - as far as he knows, he is out of political game of the North permanently, as all other people in similar situations have been for as long as NW existed (Black Harren's brother, maester Aemon, etc.)

I think the better criticism is to ask why Jon didn't think to write those letters of appeals to all the other Northern lords with Stannis, and frame it as a matter of urgency in terms of the Long Night rather than a Stannis-centric appeal for fealty.

This is an excellent point. Jon should have been doing it too - informing northeners about what was coming. Even though most of them would surely disregard his warnings, something might stick. In fact, he should have tasked his rangers with find another wight, so that it could be hacked apart and pieces sent to various northern lords, instead of to KL. _That_ would have gotten their attention to where it needs to be - impending apocalypse. Oh, well...

ETA: I don't think Thoros was actually ever "booted out."

Thoros said that he _would_ have been normally booted out, because he was such a neglectful acolyte and priest. But he wasn't, because of his rare talent of seeing future in the flames.

His mission to Westeros may have been a kind of exile too, or he may have gotten it because he was the only one in Myr to have any kind of demonstrated magical ability.

We know for sure that slaves aren't tatooed on the faces in most places, BTW, so I doubt that Myrish Red Priests who used to be slaves have tatoos either. If they even accept slaves into the priesthood there, that is.

And I remain by my point that if Red Priestresses had been unknown, some of Stannis's Essosi sellswords/sellsailes would have said something. Heck, Salador Saan told Davos that Lighbringer was fake, he certainly would have told him if he thought that Melisandre herself was, too.

It is even possible that women can _only_ become priestresses if they can demonstrate magical ability, so they would have been much more rare than male priests while the magic was weak.

Oh, and I absolutely agree that Melisandre's track record could have been substantially improved if she had drawn or even described her visions to other people. Moqorro did it for Tyrion, curiously enough. He didn't seem as desperate to assign all and every one of his visions a meaning ASAP.

Benerro and Moqorro are very precise about ship arrival and departure times but that does not necessarily make them experts on interpreting highly metaphorical visions about AAR or other deep subjects.

Well, they also foresaw that a ship headed _for Quarth_ would actually bring Moquorro, as well as as Jorah and Tyrion to _Meeren_ instead. That's some pretty accurate fortelling of the future there.

I see the R'hllorism as a term as broad as christianity - a common set of beliefs and rituals that constitute a core, but apart from that there are so many regional, institutional and other types of differentiations, that sometimes it can make it seem as a different religion alltogether.

That's my impression as well. And besides, much also depends on indvidual R'llorists themselves, how strongly they believe, etc. Thoros was practically an unbeliever, who became very familiar with Westerosi culture and chose to stay in Westeros.

So, he was always tolerant and "evidence" of R'llor performing miracles through such an unworthy vessel as him only made him more humble.

Melisandre, OTOH, was always a fervent believer and has been able to perform at least a little magic for a long time, so she sees herself as R'llor's Chosen Prophet and is consequently more arrogant and intolerant. Oh, and she also knows about the impending Long Night, while Thoros is still oblivious, IIRC.

BTW, it is interesting that Thoros didn't seem to have any kind of entourage either, at least by the time we met him. Yet he was sent on official mission to Westeros. So, maybe Melisandre not being accompagnied by servants and helpers when she came to Dragonstone doesn't mean much either?

So many things and so little time... One last thing: Jon does not want to relate Arya to the "big picture". In later chapters we have his thoughts about it. He wants to save his little sister from the Game of Thrones entirely, not to just free her from the Boltons. So I don't think that the argument of her value to Stannis' cause / big picture would be a very good one.

This is very true! After all, Stannis would only want to marry her to whomever he himself chooses, which might not be that much of an improvement. Well, as far as Jon knows before the pink letter anyway.

[Lummel]

...This is an excellent point. Jon should have been doing it too - informing northeners about what was coming. Even though most of them would surely disregard his warnings, something might stick. In fact, he should have tasked his rangers with find another wight, so that it could be hacked apart and pieces sent to various northern lords, instead of to KL. _That_ would have gotten their attention to where it needs to be - impending apocalypse. Oh, well...

Here I disagree with you and Butterbumps!

You are clearly both sure that there is going to be an apocalyptic attack by the White Walkers, however it is not clear what Jon thinks is going to happen. Here you two are in the position of Melisandre and Stannis assuming a narrative pattern which GRRM has neither confirmed or denied in this story so far. I mean as readers we're all so familiar with fantasy stories of horrible creatures usually coming from the east pouring over borders bringing death and destruction that many are inclined to impose that on this story.

The problem is that it is not clear what Jon thinks will happen, and I suspect one reason why he doesn't write "THE WHITE WALKERS ARE COMING!" to everybody is because he doesn't know what is happening, he only knows that they are powerful, dangerous and restive. Since he doesn't know what they will do, he can hardly have a plan of action of how to deal with them. Apparently Stannis and Melisandre have an idea of what to do - which includes opening all the castles and having nightfires burning before all the gates. Whether anybody else would be impressed by this plan of action would be doubtful.

Back in Sam I AFFC we learn that Jon is still trying to find out about the White walkers presumable not just to find out how to fight them but maybe also to get an idea of what they might or might not do, can and can not do.

Anyway this is all rather off the topic of Melisandre I!

[Mithras]

The last time it was life I [Davos] brought to Storm’s End, shaped to look like onions. This time it is death, in the shape of Melisandre of Asshai.

16 years ago Davos brought onions (life) to save the castellan (Stannis). This time he brought Mel (death) to kill the castellan (Cortnay). This is another dichotomy related to the previous discussion about onions vs. (red) apples. Mel thinks that she serves the Lord of Light, the god of life; yet she acts like an agent of the god of death.

[ShadowCat Rivers]

Here I disagree with you and Butterbumps!

You are clearly both sure that there is going to be an apocalyptic attack by the White Walkers, however it is not clear what Jon thinks is going to happen. Here you two are in the position of Melisandre and Stannis assuming a narrative pattern which GRRM has neither confirmed or denied in this story so far. I mean as readers we're all so familiar with fantasy stories of horrible creatures usually coming from the east pouring over borders bringing death and destruction that many are inclined to impose that on this story.

The problem is that it is not clear what Jon thinks will happen, and I suspect one reason why he doesn't write "THE WHITE WALKERS ARE COMING!" to everybody is because he doesn't know what is happening, he only knows that they are powerful, dangerous and restive. Since he doesn't know what they will do, he can hardly have a plan of action of how to deal with them. Apparently Stannis and Melisandre have an idea of what to do - which includes opening all the castles and having nightfires burning before all the gates. Whether anybody else would be impressed by this plan of action would be doubtful.

Back in Sam I AFFC we learn that Jon is still trying to find out about the White walkers presumable not just to find out how to fight them but maybe also to get an idea of what they might or might not do, can and can not do.

Anyway this is all rather off the topic of Melisandre I!

I agree, and I had in mind to add that Jon (or anyone) does not know when they are going to attack. Tommorow? Next month? In a few years? If the northerners react positively to his call but then, for a considerable amount of time nothing really happens, they are naturally going to dismiss the whole issue as nonesense.

[bemused]

Points to consider

Thoros..

It may not be terribly important , but Thoros may also owe the fact that he wasn't booted out to a simple case of out of sight out of mind..which may fit better with the idea of factions within the Red faith jockeying for position ( rather than simple regional differences ). Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think we hear of any reprimands or letters of disapproval being sent from his temple in regard to his behavour .. It's as if they had bigger fish to fry, or more pressing matters closer to home , or perhaps a change in hierarchy that caused him to be ignored or forgotten.

The Ploy

At this point , I tend to think that Mance has a plan of his own... but we haven't necessarily seen any of it yet. As noted upthread , Mel hasn't been everywhere in Westeros ,and so wouldn't make the same deductions as Mance from the surroundings she saw in her vision. Jon might , but we don't know if the topography in her vision was ever described to Jon.

“I saw water. Deep and blue and still, with a thin coat of ice just forming on it. It seemed to go

on and on forever.”

“Long Lake. What else did you see around this girl?”

“Hills. Fields. Trees. A deer, once. Stones. She is staying well away from villages. When she can

she rides along the bed of little streams, to throw hunters off her trail.”

He frowned. “That will make it difficult. She was coming north, you said. Was the lake to her

east or to her west?”

Melisandre closed her eyes, remembering. “West.”

“She is not coming up the kingsroad, then. Clever girl. There are fewer watchers on the other

side, and more cover. And some hidey-holes I have used myself from time—”

So - if Mel's vision was correct, Arya would be on the Umber side of Long Lake. Hold that thought..

Now ,going back to the "wedding announcement" , Jon reads out the gist of the letter to those present ( including Mance as Rattleshirt)

" Roose Bolton summons all leal lords to Barrowton, to affirm

their loyalty to the Iron Throne and celebrate his son’s wedding to …”

I can't consider this letter to be meant as an invitation .( Aside : I think this was actually meant to mislead Stannis ).... Firstly, the LC of the NW is not a bannerman of the Warden of the North , so he would not (could not ) be "summoned" anywhere. Secondly, we know Manderly tells Davos ...

" Even so, I must go to Winterfell. Roose Bolton wants me on my knees, and beneath the velvet courtesy he shows the iron mail....(Oooh,Cat..)

... Wyman is a bannerman and must comply. True, there is a rendezvous point at Barrowton, but he has been notified the wedding is to be at WF . Presumably the other "leal lords" not already in Barrowton would have been notified as well. ...Jon and Mance ( and to all appearances Mel ) do not know this.They think it's Barrowton.

Mance was in the room when Jon laid out for Stannis everything that was wrong with his Dreadfort plan ... He was not present when Jon went on the tell Stannis about the clans , though Mel was . But Mance would have a good understanding of how the clans worked , from his own experience.

Given all that, what could Mance be thinking ? If the girl was escaping from Barrowton, staying off the Kingsroad, you would think she'd be on the west side of the Kingsroad ( and lake) , but somewhere north of ruined WF, she'd have to cross over to detour around the east side of Long lake ( otherwise LL would be to her east)... Mance says she's a clever girl , and it would be much cleverer and safer to cross the Kingsroad north of WF, where the road is much smaller and less well used ( and to cross earlier and detour around WF would be dangerously close to Bolton territory ). ... Mance has just heard that the Umbers' loyalties are split , politically , so if he had to ask questions of anyone , it would be more risky on the Umber side. ( More risky , with less chance of information. )

He says ( in reverse) there are more watchers on the other side ( the Clan side ) of Long Lake, and we know from Bran's journey that the route is well watched, even quite far south of Long Lake .. so if there was no sign of "Arya" where she was expected , I think it would be to the Clan watchers , not Umbers, that Mance would look for information....( I'll hold it there ,or we'll be off into GNC theory and how Mance got into WF )

The point is, Mance need not have had any immediate WF plans when he left the Wall. He can only have learned that the wedding was to be at WF and that "Arya" was still in custody , somewhere along the way... And though Jon , Mel and presumably Mance know that Stannis means to take WF and deny it to the Boltons , I don't see what help Mel can think Mance would be to Stannis at WF.

One of the spearwives , Rowan , displays more reverence for "Lord Eddard" than would seem likely for a wildling and may have originally come from one of the northern houses. Mance may always have foreseen that he might have to seek information and she could have helped to break the ice , or engender trust and belief ( e.g. that they really are acting on behalf of Jon.) ..Besides - young, pretty spearwives can be useful in finding information in any northern hold , not just in WF.

One more side note on Mance.. We know that the reason Jon gave Mance for deserting the Watch held a grain of truth about his feelings about being a bastard, while not being honest about his motives. Why should we assume Mance was any more completely honest with Jon ? Why should he be ? ...Too many rules ? No red on his cloak ? That's always seemed a bit trivial , for a man who was considered among the best of the Watch ( before he came to be considered among the worst) ... trivial, or simplified to the extreme...Is it possible that he wanted to forge more friendly relations with the wildlings , but couldn't move the watch to see them as anything other than The enemy?.. I've always suspected there's a bit more to it.

Personal motives , but not politically unaware..

If we see Jon think of something in one place , but not another , we shouldn't assume he's forgotten it . ( e.g. his thoughts on strategies for defending the Wall from the south)... Or in this case , just because we don't see him think something specifically until later on, we shouldn't assume that's the first time he's thought of it. ...Without leaping ahead in depth... later, we'll see Jon think that the Boltons might not have the real Arya , but some other girl. I don't think we have to wait for that chapter to consider that he might be aware of this , because when he received the "wedding notice", he thinks about Arya... No, that is not possible. She died in King’s Landing, with Father. ...Yes, his personal feelings and hopes come to the fore, but I don't think we should forget that at the same time , he realizes she could equally well be dead. He knows Ned never trusted Roose , has obviously heard something of Ramsay's reputation and must be aware of " the long enmity between Stark and Bolton " that Roose refers to in his wedding speech at WF. You bet Jon wants his little sister out of their clutches , but he must also be well aware of many of the political implications.I think this becomes more apparent later..but it won't be a new thing.

Back to Mel

I too feel a hint of Mel wanting to be one with R'Hllor - a kind of "sitting on the right hand of the lord " kind of thing. As she is Stannis' aid in becoming Azor Ahai , his becoming AA will aid her path to glory with her Lord. I don't mean to say it's entirely calculated because I think her belief is sincere..but I think there's something a bit desperate about it. She must be right ...yes , for the common good , and for the glory of R'Hllor and her own glory and elevation....???...

[The Sleeper]

About Mance winding up in Winterfell.

We should remember that Mel's visions do not come time-stamped. Her vision of Arya concerned her whereabouts at some point in time ad Mel believes that the events she sees in her visions may be altered or averted entirely due to her intervention and presumably Mance takes her word for it. This allows for him to anticipate multiple scenarios up to reaching Winterfell before the expected escape takes place. The only thing the vision dictates with a degree of certainty is that Mance ad co should head to Winterfell going east of Long Lake just in case Arya has already escape. His choice of spear wives and carrying out his ruse on the road has it's usefulness as well. A group of six women ad one man are much less likely to be viewed as a threat and be attacked than a group of men that would be more obviously wildlings, while still being able to fight if it comes down to that. There is also the fact that, not only Arya would be more likely to trust women, Mance himself would be able to trust women with Arya, rather than with raiders who might be liable to rape or steal her.

I think it would also be a mistake to assume that Mance would be content being Mel and Jon's errand boy and may have his own agenda regarding Arya, which given his inspiration from Bael, might be to keep her for himself, either as a hostage to counter the leverage Jon has over him with his son (or so he thinks) or to marry her himself and lay claim to Winterfell, or anything in between. Though, being cut loose and gaining freedom to act might be reason enough for him to agree to this ploy.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

One more side note on Mance.. We know that the reason Jon gave Mance for deserting the Watch held a grain of truth about his feelings about being a bastard, while not being honest about his motives. Why should we assume Mance was any more completely honest with Jon ? Why should he be ? ...Too many rules ? No red on his cloak ? That's always seemed a bit trivial , for a man who was considered among the best of the Watch ( before he came to be considered among the worst) ... trivial, or simplified to the extreme...Is it possible that he wanted to forge more friendly relations with the wildlings , but couldn't move the watch to see them as anything other than The enemy?.. I've always suspected there's a bit more to it.

Mance is perhaps the most mysterious character in the whole story. All we know of his past is

He was wilding born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword.

(spoken by Qhorin Halfhand in aCoK)

Was he found guilty of a crime, and chose to take the black as an alternative to an imposed sentence? Or was he forced into the Watch even though he was considered innocent? What side of the Wall was he captured on? It may very well be that Mance considers his "induction" into the Watch to have been illegal, and thus his desertion justified. Or maybe not.

And then there's his name. Obviously some sort of assumed "nom de wild". I've played with acronyms, and can come up with all kinds of weird variations that don't really make complete sense. There's Reeds, Reynes, and Daynes, dancers and mancers, and enough a's and e's to fuel any number of Targ hunts. And Stannis says both Mance and his son have king's blood. Does Stannis know more than Jon (and us) about Mance?

GRRM is withholding data on Mance, just like he does about Summerhall. We should be careful to keep open minds regarding Mance's motivations.

[butterbumps!]

Yea, I don't think that a king is supposed to have authority to absolve somebody from NW vows. NW was formed when there were many kings, who would have loved to use it in their interests, release enemies of their enemies, etc. That had to be nipped in the bud for NW as a neutral organization supported by whole Westeros to be able to exist for any length of time.

Obviously, by the time of Five Kings and now it's aftermath various claimants believed that current weakness of NW would allow them to get away with breaking laws governing it, but that's the case of might over right and/or possibly delusions of power.

KG is different - it was formed by a king on the Iron Throne, it's purpose is to guard the same and "serve his pleasure", there are precedents of people getting thrown out of KG for deriliction of duty and being forced to join the NW (Lucamore the Lusty and traditionalist Ned wanted the same for Jaime). There is no question that a king has abolute authority and jurisdiction over KG.

Men make laws. For laws to be deterministic, people have to put stock in those laws. What matters is what men recognize. If someone that people recognize as an authority decrees someone is pardoned of something, then people will see that person as having been pardoned. Laws are only as meaningful and authoritative as the meaning and authority men give them. Whether this is about the Watch or the KG or deciding whether to outlaw prostitution.

I am not entirely sure why wildlings, unlike anybody else, who has supported NW for millenia, should be entitled to free lunch? Did _they_ offer to support NW in exchange for protection? Of course not. On the contrary, they have done everything they could to make NW's life miserable. It takes 2 to tango.

Nope, Mance never claimed that he deserted to protect the wildlings. He said himself that he did it because he was sick of following rules. And I guess that his close brush with death made him want to experience and enjoy life to it's fullest.

Nor do we know at what point he started to attack the NW and raid over the Wall - was it only after he had learned about the danger of the Others, or was it initially just to bolster his social position among the wildlings?

Now, IMHO Mance is a tragic figure in certain respects - i.e. once he became aware of the true danger, he _might_ have been the ideal person to inform NW and broker an alliance with the wildlings... if he hadn't turned on NW first. A truly selfless person might have still tried it, even if price for getting NW and wildlings working together against the Others had been his head. But Mance is not that selfless.

Even though he had to know that chances of the wildlings breaking through the Wall, settling behind it and _not_ being subsequently slaughtered by the Northmen were slim, he still chose that route. His ego would allow nothing less.

And yes, I am sure that Mance could have rally some of the remaining wildlings and brought them over. The question is, would it have been a positive thing, if they had subsequently turned on and slaughtered the NW and it's closest neighbors? Not IMHO.

And nobody had any reason to think that Mance would not do it. He has done it before, oaths before the heart tree are nothing to him and "his kind of honour" clearly doesn't apply to non-wildlings.

In fact, I see strong analogy of the notion that Mance should have been spared and used to Robert pardoning Jaime Lannister and letting him remain in KG. IMHO, YMMV.

I fear you may have misunderstood my objections. I'm purposely trying to keep the responses brief so that we don't get too sidetracked by a past chapter.

I was not trying to invalidate your previous criticisms of sparing Mance. I think the reasons you pointed out as negatives are valid. What I did disagree with was the idea that sparing Mance is "bad from every angle." There are positives and negatives to sparing him, and more angles to this than you had been considering. You seem to be very focused on viewing this from a justice lens, and from the POV of the recalcitrant Watchmen particularly, with an anti-wildling tinge. These angles are important, but by no means the full picture.

I didn't argue that Mance broke his vows for a higher purpose in the context of this exchange. I pointed out that the actions you called "violent attacks" to the Watch were in the context of a higher purpose, that higher purpose relating to their common enemy. I pointed to this-- that Mance was "violently attacking" the Watch not as an end, but as a means to his purpose of bringing the wildlings to safety-- as a reason to believe Mance would have investment in keeping his word if allowed beyond the Wall to rally the scattered wildlings. This was about the objective reality of Mance's trustworthiness if freed. That is, since he was looking for protection and not conquest, and therefore, not truly unaligned with the Watch's purpose, he'd have little incentive to return with an army and destroy the Watch.

This would be a "pro." The "con" would be whether the other Watchmen could be convinced to trust that this is his objective.

"Who" comes up with the idea to negotiate an emergency alliance between wildlings and Watch doesn't concern me. Just because Mance didn't offer this doesn't mean that he and the wildlings don't deserve the offer to be made. If a "fight along side us in exchange for sanctuary south of the Wall" deal is put on the table and they refuse, then yea, that's a problem. But dismissing them out of hand for not coming up with that offer feels like an anti-wildling excuse. In general, I understand the less tolerant Watchmen's POV about all this, and how difficult it is to change your mindset when things have become so ingrained. But I can't see looking at the whole situation exclusively from their view the way it seems like you are. I mean, condemning the wildlings for not having come up with that compromise, while strongly sympathizing with the intolerant view of some of the Watchmen who believe the wildlings should all go and die seems more than a little unfair and missing a lot of the points being made in these chapters, from both a humanitarian and pragmatic sense.

I get that you don't like the wildlings and prioritize the realm's POV in this. I don't think they're fluffy creampuffs free from sin by any means, but objectively, I struggle to see why the shit realm who's made such a point of neglecting the Watch is more deserving of the Watch's protection than these people.

And, actually, speaking of Jon's alleged belief that he was _only_ sending Mance to fetch Arya from the New Gift, shouldn't the demand for half a dozen young and fair spearwives have rung alarm bells? I mean, Arya _might_ have trusted the women more after her supposed ordeals, but she never cared about people's appearance. Shouldn't it have been a huge, blinking warning sign to Jon that Mance intended to do more than just meet his sister on NW land and escort her safely to the Wall? I really don't think that he can claim complete ignorance about it, frankly.

It is exactly the kind of scenario that I have been bringing up re: Mance, BTW. He is untrustworthy where the "southeners" are concerned and has his own plans. Which might have huge negative reprecussions for NW.

I don't think the spearwives would be a huge warning sign that more was concerned. Wouldn't anyone travelling in the North at this time need a bit of a cover of some sort? I'm not sure this is necessarily a huge "tell." It's not just about having a cover to get to Arya, but a cover to return without suspicion once they intercept her. I think the fact that they're "spearwives" instead of non-military women implies that Mance is adjacently thinking it could come to arms and that protection is needed. But beyond that, I don't know that this necessarily telegraphs something beyond an interception.

No, I can't agree with this. It is inconscionable on LC's part to gamble everything that NW had learned about the impending Long Night and everything he has so far achieved with the wildlings on Stannis winning.

Because if he loses and no dialog with the winners has been established beforehand, Jon would look like an oathbreaker who threw his lot with Stannis and all his works are going to be destroyed and whatever information about the Others he'd try to impart would look like like self-serving lies and discounted.

And Jon has no reason to think that he'd be a target for the Boltons - as far as he knows, he is out of political game of the North permanently, as all other people in similar situations have been for as long as NW existed (Black Harren's brother, maester Aemon, etc.)

This is an excellent point. Jon should have been doing it too - informing northeners about what was coming. Even though most of them would surely disregard his warnings, something might stick. In fact, he should have tasked his rangers with find another wight, so that it could be hacked apart and pieces sent to various northern lords, instead of to KL. _That_ would have gotten their attention to where it needs to be - impending apocalypse. Oh, well...

I agree with Lum that Jon isn't necessarily thinking "Long Night" with this. That said, I do think the issues of Others and wildlings are things that should be discussed between him and the other Northmen.

I don't want to get off-track with my beliefs about neutrality. Suffice it to say that I think it's meaningless, impossible, and that I only wish he'd have become more involved at an earlier stage.

Jon would have every reason to believe he'd be a Bolton target. The fact that they are Lannister men and that Stannis had just parked himself up at the Watch, and that he believes the Lannisters won't be swayed by his paper shield implies that Jon thought retaliation from the Boltons could be a possibility.

[Maia]

I think it would also be a mistake to assume that Mance would be content being Mel and Jon's errand boy and may have his own agenda regarding Arya

Very true. And not just Arya. But I have said enough on the subject - I can only reitirate that Mance's demand for young and pretty spearwives should have warned Jon that Mance had some additional plans, which could badly backfire on NW. Particularly, since, as Bemused astutely pointed out, Jon didn't even wholly believed that Boltons had the real Arya. IMHO, YMMV.

Re: Mance's background and possible reasons for defection - intriguing indeed. Particularly since, if Mance had been part of a raiding group taken south of the Wall, and had been spared and allowed to join NW only to turn on it, it may add to negative expectations as regards wildling members of NW and wildling integration in general.

As to Mance's reasons for defection - well, that frivolous story is all that Jon and other Watchmen have to judge him on. And we don't know that his initial reasons weren't completely selfish. He is only human, after all.

If someone that people recognize as an authority decrees someone is pardoned of something, then people will see that person as having been pardoned.

Let's wait and see if there is such authority that "people" would uniformly recognize where NW renegades are concerned. And what the reprecussions would be, if so.

This was about the objective reality of Mance's trustworthiness if freed. That is, since he was looking for protection and not conquest, and therefore, not truly unaligned with the Watch's purpose, he'd have little incentive to return with an army and destroy the Watch.

If Mance wasn't looking for conquest, he would have tried diplomacy first. He didn't. And when Jon suggested a peaceful agreement during their parley, Mance dismissed it out of hand, because it would have required concessions to the laws and customs of the North.

That's the objective reality of Mance's trustworthyness - he sought to save wildlings solely through conquest and him rallying superior numbers of wildlings under his leadership and bringing them through the Wall would allow him a second crack at it.

Nor did we ever see or hear about Mance regretting his choices in any way, so...

But dismissing them out of hand for not coming up with that offer feels like an anti-wildling excuse.

How so? Wildlings were the ones who were aware of the danger of the Others and they were the ones who wanted to hide under protection of the Wall. The offer _could_ have only come from them. Instead, they chose a violent attack on NW and intended to pillage the North.

And by these aggressive and violent actions, the wildlings have made a bad situation worse.

You like to speak about "common enemy", Butterbumps!, but wildlings certainly didn't see it that way. They weren't trying to make common cause with people south of the Wall. They were coming to kill them and take their place.

If they _had_ tried and been rebuffed, I would have seen them more sympathetically, of course. But they didn't.

I don't think they're fluffy creampuffs free from sin by any means, but objectively, I struggle to see why the shit realm who's made such a point of neglecting the Watch is more deserving of the Watch's protection than these people.

Objectively, the Wall was built through constant contributions of the realm, over centuries and millenia. The Watch, however sorry it's current state, has been supported by the realm. The food that they currently share with wildlings, has been donated by the realm. Ditto tools, weapons, etc. Even Jon's loan is only possible because of the realm's past (and presumed future?) support of NW.

What did wildlings contribute? Nothing. Not even a timely warning or useful information about the enemy. On the contrary, they have constantly attacked and weakened NW, they have depopulated the Gifts, etc.

And when they needed protection of Wall, they tried to violently take it.

That said, I do think the issues of Others and wildlings are things that should be discussed between him and the other Northmen.

Yes, that's what I meant. Long Night here or there, the important thing should have been to convince the other northmen that wights and Others are real and that they are in the process of overrunning everything beyond the Wall. Ditto, sharing tips what to do should wights show up, importance of obsidian versus the Others, etc.

This is purely my personal, unsupported opinion, but I expect that the Others and wights, already south of the Wall are going to reveal themselves during the Battle of Ice in TWoW. Or , maybe a "Dracula" scenario with one or more of the ships sent to Hardhome sailing into unsuspecting ports at night.

Jon would have every reason to believe he'd be a Bolton target.

I disagree, but all the more reason to try to establish dialog with them and do his best to convince them that wights and Others are real. Jon knows that there are far bigger things at stake than inter-family enmity and whoever owns the Iron Throne, but the Boltons don't.

Jon wants the NW and the North to embrace their traditional enemies the wildlings - he himself should at least try to do no less.

Survival of the North/humanity shouldn't depend solely on Stannis's military success.

Anyway, I feel that we are at impasse here - I see that I am repeating myself and there is going to be additional pertinent evidence on the subject for us to discuss in upcoming chapters.

[Mithras]

Does anybody think that there may be more to this certain ploy Mance has in mind?

[butterbumps!]

Let's wait and see if there is such authority that "people" would uniformly recognize where NW renegades are concerned. And what the reprecussions would be, if so.

If Mance wasn't looking for conquest, he would have tried diplomacy first. He didn't. And when Jon suggested a peaceful agreement during their parley, Mance dismissed it out of hand, because it would have required concessions to the laws and customs of the North.

That's the objective reality of Mance's trustworthyness - he sought to save wildlings solely through conquest and him rallying superior numbers of wildlings under his leadership and bringing them through the Wall would allow him a second crack at it.

Nor did we ever see or hear about Mance regretting his choices in any way, so...

How so? Wildlings were the ones who were aware of the danger of the Others and they were the ones who wanted to hide under protection of the Wall. The offer _could_ have only come from them. Instead, they chose a violent attack on NW and intended to pillage the North.

And by these aggressive and violent actions, the wildlings have made a bad situation worse.

You like to speak about "common enemy", Butterbumps!, but wildlings certainly didn't see it that way. They weren't trying to make common cause with people south of the Wall. They were coming to kill them and take their place.

If they _had_ tried and been rebuffed, I would have seen them more sympathetically, of course. But they didn't.

Objectively, the Wall was built through constant contributions of the realm, over centuries and millenia. The Watch, however sorry it's current state, has been supported by the realm. The food that they currently share with wildlings, has been donated by the realm. Ditto tools, weapons, etc. Even Jon's loan is only possible because of the realm's past (and presumed future?) support of NW.

What did wildlings contribute? Nothing. Not even a timely warning or useful information about the enemy. On the contrary, they have constantly attacked and weakened NW, they have depopulated the Gifts, etc.

And when they needed protection of Wall, they tried to violently take it.

Yes, that's what I meant. Long Night here or there, the important thing should have been to convince the other northmen that wights and Others are real and that they are in the process of overrunning everything beyond the Wall. Ditto, sharing tips what to do should wights show up, importance of obsidian versus the Others, etc.

This is purely my personal, unsupported opinion, but I expect that the Others and wights, already south of the Wall are going to reveal themselves during the Battle of Ice in TWoW. Or , maybe a "Dracula" scenario with one or more of the ships sent to Hardhome sailing into unsuspecting ports at night.

Maia, what I'm seeing is that you want to force the opinion that the wildlings are an undeserving, dangerous people who burnt their bridge for protection by not being the ones to make the offer, and that any POV that sees them and/ or Mance sympathetically here and worth a shot at trust is categorically incorrect.

First, Jon didn't suggest to Mance that Mance and the wildlings help him man the Wall. Jon was talking about seeing if Mance would be willing to govern the wildlings into obeying realm laws. That's what Mance refused. I'm not pleased with this in terms of the big picture. But it should be noted that at this point, Mance had no reason to obey-- he was in a position where he didn't need to offer concessions.

And we know Mance wasn't trying to destroy the Wall because we know he'd been fighting the Others as per Osha in aGoT, knew the enemy was too much for him, needed sanctuary, and the Wall is a major defensive barrier he wanted to get behind.

Secondly, I'm pretty sure that Jon and Stannis, potentially perhaps Qhorin, are the only individuals who'd even be responsive to any sort of wildling-Watch negotiation of this nature. Jon reflects that even Mormont would listen, but ultimately refuse to negotiate. I really think this is one of those situations were supposed to see as having so much bad history and mistrust on both sides that it takes some outside party who either bridges both worlds or is outside of them completely to come up with a reconciliation idea.

So I don't see Mance's attempting to take protection by force (as opposed to diplomacy) as indicative of his actually wanting conquest, because the years of history, not to mention Mance's particular role as an oathbreaker of this institution, would have rendered this a moot point. Without showing the Watch they could be overpowered to get them to listen, he'd have no way to get them to listen.

Third, I really think it's fundamentally skewed to appeal to history to assert that the realm is more worthy of the Watch's protection than the wildlings. Men are men. And when one starts bringing up a history of who's helped more, we run into a lot of problems. Like, for example, are we really sure beyond doubt that the Watch and the realm aren't the ones who began antagonizing or marginalizing the wildlings in the first place?

Cold wars have to end somehow. Sometimes it doesn't matter who was wrong first. The fact that you keep insisting that Jon put aside any personal feeling about the Lannister and Boltons to work toward something more important pretty much runs counter to your insistence that we should hold a grudge against the wildlings.

Look-- the negatives you have raised in terms of the messages it sends to the Watch and the miscarriages of justice and so forth are valid. Despite my belief that sparing Mance is a good thing-- in any one of the scenarios I posited-- I'm not insisting that sparing him is unilaterally good from every angle. On the contrary, there are some serious problems with sparing him, in any scenario.

I'm struggling with how you're trying to force this into being a unilateral wrong; you're prioritizing only one POV on this, villanizing the other, and automatically trying to invalidate the potential goods by placing critical importance on the cons.

Objectively, I do not know what the true net value of sparing Mance versus killing him would be. All I know is that there are pros and cons to any of the iterations that could play out. I personally side with the idea of sparing him; he's a man who can be reasoned with, has useful skills, and though this is speculative, my suspicion is that he's on the side of "good," and especially in the scenario of potentially rallying the wildlings peacefully to augment the Watch, I think this serves a really important pragmatic function provided it would work that way. I think that you or anyone else can make a reasonable case for seeing sparing Mance as a mistake, and you have. I think your initial post about this was sensible, and wouldn't have responded in disagreement had you not called it "bad from every angle." To make the case that sparing him is an inferior choice doesn't require one to blackwash Mance or the wildlings and insist that no good whatsoever is to be found in the alternative.

[Lummel]

Does anybody think that there may be more to this certain ploy Mance has in mind?

Ha! I do, but probably only because Mance is so obscure and that phrase so open ended. A certain ploy I have in mind, not a certain ploy that we have in mind.

I suppose he could have ended up in Winterfell thinking that he needed to do something that would allow Melisandre's vision to become true and travelling with a gang of women rather than men suggests peaceful intent to any watchers :dunno:

[Lummel]

...Then we have the fight in the yard between Jon and GlamMance. I suppose we should look at this as symbolizing Jon's internal struggle between "Jon" and "LC Snow", with Mance representing the "Jon" side. The fact that Mance is disguised would seem to indicate that Jon isn't fully recognizing that he is still struggling with this. He thought "Jon" had been safely stowed away in favor of "LC Snow". The fact that "Jon" (Mance) defeated "LC Snow" (Jon) foreshadows Jon's choice at the end of aDwD...

I think this is interesting in so far as Jon is still hidden from himself and unwilling to be explicit about the power of family ties that is obvious not only to us as readers but also to some characters in the book. The hidden mance is an appropriate symbol for what Jon is hiding from himself.

...I think Shadowcat is right, though-- Jon is explicitly not recognizing her as a political entity because he wants her removed from the political game entirely...

This seems quite a naive hope given the importance of marriage in politics - which Jon will may use of himself in a few chapters time. In a way even removing her from the marriage pool is itself a political action. But certainly for Jon Arya is still the little sister, an image from the past to be protected and cherished, not a piece on the game board.

ArabellaVidal, yes I think that´s what made Ned special in this story. He was a loving and kind father, but donned his "Lord´s face" to do his duty.

This is quite uncommon in the story. Tywin and Stannis seem to never take off their "Lord´s face", maybe that´s why their human "weaknesses" and ambitions interfere with their duty?...

Jon as a bastard, as a "traitor" to two (or more) sides is neither here nor there and the thing I like about him, is that he doesn´t try to integrate into one of the sides but to integrate the sides themselves, a concept alien to most of the characters...

That is interesting, it suggests the possibility of transcending the tensions between love and duty, between the individual and society.

It puts me in mind of this:

"The epic hero is rarely alone and separable from his community, whist the romance hero becomes a voluntary exile. The theme of romance is the discovery of identity within a world of adventitious happenings, the process of self-realisation through adventure (from ad-venire, 'to happen'). The hero pursues a solitary quest in which the presuppositions of the courtly world may act as beacons or decoys. His task, just like that of the reader, is thus one of orientation and discrimination, the search for pertinent and durable criteria (the epic hero simply tours an arena of familiar feudal loyalties"

Medieval Literature Part Two:The European Inheritance Ford et al 1984 p129

particularly the idea of orientation and discrimination - choosing what is useful and valuable from those different sides to integrate into himself maybe?

I agree, and I had in mind to add that Jon (or anyone) does not know when they are going to attack. Tommorow? Next month? In a few years? If the northerners react positively to his call but then, for a considerable amount of time nothing really happens, they are naturally going to dismiss the whole issue as nonesense.

Exactly, it is a threatening situation, but completely open too.

...I think it would also be a mistake to assume that Mance would be content being Mel and Jon's errand boy and may have his own agenda regarding Arya, which given his inspiration from Bael, might be to keep her for himself, either as a hostage to counter the leverage Jon has over him with his son (or so he thinks) or to marry her himself and lay claim to Winterfell, or anything in between. Though, being cut loose and gaining freedom to act might be reason enough for him to agree to this ploy.

Yes, there is that too, which I think plays into the thinking of Butterbumps! and others on Mance as potential author of the Pink Letter. Though there is also the Dornishman's wife aspect - looking for a worthy death perhaps if he feels that he's kissed the wife and is sated with life.

[bemused]

Yipes! Don't tempt me off into Mance theory. I think he's up to something re: Winterfell, alright ... I'm just not sure he can have realistically counted on getting there when he left the Wall.

ETA: Mance is having to react to changing circumstances just like Jon and Stannis . I think his heart is in the right place in terms of helping the most people survive. Now that there's a chance more of the free folk can be brought through the wall ... I don't think he wants to lead a horde south through winter fighting all the way. Whatever understanding he has with Stannis, he must know will be subject to whether Jon succeeds in his efforts , and how long Stannis stays in the North.

I can't say I really feel attracted to "Mance vs. Jon" representing "Jon vs LC" or that it foreshadows his "choice" at the end of ADWD. I don't think Jon truly hides his Jon side at all ( not from himself ), he just has felt , to one degree or another, that he doesn't have the right to satisfy his Jon self before or above or at the expense of the common good. And in his "choice" at the end of ADWD, I think he's still trying to find the third way, an integrated way , as Lykos suggests.

[The Sleeper]

Very true. And not just Arya. But I have said enough on the subject - I can only reitirate that Mance's demand for young and pretty spearwives should have warned Jon that Mance had some additional plans, which could badly backfire on NW. Particularly, since, as Bemused astutely pointed out, Jon didn't even wholly believed that Boltons had the real Arya. IMHO, YMMV.

Re: Mance's background and possible reasons for defection - intriguing indeed. Particularly since, if Mance had been part of a raiding group taken south of the Wall, and had been spared and allowed to join NW only to turn on it, it may add to negative expectations as regards wildling members of NW and wildling integration in general.

As to Mance's reasons for defection - well, that frivolous story is all that Jon and other Watchmen have to judge him on. And we don't know that his initial reasons weren't completely selfish. He is only human, after all.

I was thinking of designs of a political rather than of a sexual nature. He doesn't strike me as the type. It was also my understanding that he was a wildling orphan raised by the Watch, rather than a raider spared.

My point was that he was the one who managed to unify the wildlings and lead them. He is not the type to be turned into an underling. Other than that his knowledge of both the wildlings and the Others make executing him a waste of an irrepaceble asset at this juncture. Oathbreaker or not as a councilor, he would be invaluable. The problem would be getting him to cooperate.

[The Sleeper]

nevermind