Would Balon have attacked if Robb had kept Theon at his side?

[Lee-Sensei]

Balon wouldn't kill him. He'd just sacrifice him. To Ironborn morals, that's a difference.

Oh. While it's true that hr had some support on the Islands, he'd probablyloseit if they see him as a Stark puppet.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Oh. While it's true that hr had some support on the Islands, he'd probablyloseit if they see him as a Stark puppet.

Might be. But whether Balon or Theon wins that struggle, the Starks win.

[Bryanfury]

Mock away, but we also know that Balon was aware that Theon was on his way home. How else would Aeron be waiting for him?

So? What takes more time? Sending an uncle to meet a son, or stopping every single ship, commercial or military, from leaving harbour while planning an invasion of a specific area?

Like, why even deny what Balon was doing? Its the essence of his character dude. What purpose is there for lying to yourself about what the text says?

[Light a wight tonight]

Im more curious what Robb would have done with Theon.

Greatjon, fetch me a block.

[Headless Wolf]

Yes, but the ironmen wouldn't be nearly as successful without Theon. Of the four castles they captured in ACOK, they would only hold two, and Deepwood was easily taken since its defenses are so weak, while Robb and Rodrik would have descended on Moat Cailin from north and south, easily removing Victarion while the crannogmen kept his men from reaching the Iron Fleet on the Fever River.

[Winterfell is Burning]

We know that the Ironborn have conquered parts of the Northern coast and Bear Island before. This suggests to me that the war between Balon and Robb (who would be trapped fighting other enemies in the South, with a significant amount of the North's strength) would not be as one-sided as you claim.

The North would eventually win out like they have in the past, but I don't see it being a "curbstomping."

We don't know the circumstances or how united was the North back then.

But we do know they didn't had the Riverlands.

[Ramsay Gimp]

We don't know the circumstances or how united was the North back then.

But we do know they didn't had the Riverlands.

The Riverlands would be a disadvantage for Robb.

[Lord Lannister]

Given we see how much Balon loves Theon, I don't think he'd hesitate for a second. A more interesting question is would Robb execute Theon in this scenario.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Yes, but the ironmen wouldn't be nearly as successful without Theon. Of the four castles they captured in ACOK, they would only hold two, and Deepwood was easily taken since its defenses are so weak, while Robb and Rodrik would have descended on Moat Cailin from north and south, easily removing Victarion while the crannogmen kept his men from reaching the Iron Fleet on the Fever River.

They wouldn't even take Deepwood Motte. If he didn't need to march to Deepwood Motte and then back to Winterfell to die, Ser Rodrik Cassel would have relieved it in time.

Robb wouldn't even need to return. Ser Rodrik could have handled everything. Of course he would have done that anyway without Ramsay...

We don't know the circumstances or how united was the North back then.

But we do know they didn't had the Riverlands.

We know that the North lacked Bear Island. An island base close to the North? That's a tremendous advantage. For the ten or twenty years they had it.

Balon didn't even plan to attack it. No, he wanted to go up and close with the North's superior army, a thousand miles from the Iron Islands, in the North itself.

[Winterfell is Burning]

The Riverlands would be a disadvantage for Robb.

Against Tywin? Sure. Against Balon? Not really.

[Pikachu101]

Yes, Balon had no interest in Theon

His plan was ridiculous though, the North is barren, cold and their castles are too far away from the sea. He should have allied with Robb to attack the prosperous South.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Nope

Theon sends a raven to Balon in advance, from Seagard. That's why he hoped an Ironborn longship would be expecting him there instead of the Myraham, that's why Aeron knows to go and pick up Theon when he arrives at Lordsport, because Balon knew he'd come

Say what you will about Balon, but the evidence suggests he started getting ready for war and calling his bannermen after he was told Theon was already on his way

[In A Coat of Gold]

He'd still attack. He'd still get Moat Cailin, and Robb still loses the war.

What is a more interesting hypothetical is, what if Balon doesn't die and Victarion doesn't go home to press his claim?

[Ramsay Gimp]

He'd still attack. He'd still get Moat Cailin, and Robb still loses the war.

What is a more interesting hypothetical is, what if Balon doesn't die and Victarion doesn't go home to press his claim?

Roose would have a shitty time retaking the North

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Where do they get the men or ships to launch this invasion, considering the need of supplies down south, white harbour being on the other side of the country and the coming winter demanding immediate attention?

On Harlaw. Probably a couple other islands as well.

The trick is to give Theon a little initial support and let him and dissatisfied Ironborn do the work.

[Lion of the West]

As mentioned the invasion would have happened anyway because Balon didn't care for Theon.

[Winterfell is Burning]

On Harlaw. Probably a couple other islands as well.

The trick is to give Theon a little initial support and let him and dissatisfied Ironborn do the work.

Baelor Blacktyde also converted to the Faith of the Seven, so he could be useful. Rodrik certainly would pick his nephew over his father in law as well.

[Crazy Joe Wilson]

The biggest difference not sending Theon makes is stopping Winterfell from being captured. With Winterfell still in Stark hands, you have;

~Rodrick Cassel able to more effectively deal with the Ironborn invasion elsewhere, along wit hthe mini-civil war in the North over the Hornwood Lands.

~Robb's presitge does not collapse and he does become known as "The King who Lost the North", Freys might not jump ship even if Robb stillbreaks the wedding pact.

~Actually, on that, since Robb is distraught during the capture of the Crag over Bran and Rickon's supposed deaths, maybe he never needs Jeyne to comfort him and thereby avoids the previous point altogether.

So most likely no Wed Redding, no need for Robb to retreat back North, and instead he probably stays in the Westerlands tearing things up. Whether Tywin tries to race back on the Gold Road following the Battle of the Blackwater (Since Edmure would still mostly like have stopped in at the Battle of the Fords) is another question, although he most probably will, along with some Tyrell support. THAT would force Robb back to Riverrun, and maybe in the meantime while he's planning a new campaign strategy, Robb has a legit wedding to Roslin Frey, further tying the Riverlords to him.

[Good Guy Garlan]

Again, people, re-read aCoK. Balon started getting ready to attack AFTER he learned Theon was on his way to Pyke. Theon hoped an Ironborn longship was gonna be waiting for him at Seagard, which means he let Balon know he was coming as soon as he took off

(Never thought I'd write 2 posts in a row defending freaking Balon, but here we are)

[sifth]

Pretty sure he'd still attack the North. The guy had already called his banners when Theon arrived home and we all know Balon wanted Asha to be his heir.