R+L=J v.128

[markg171]

Part of the reason I think the comet is a red herring. Too many people are using it to "make" things happen. But I could totally see Martin using a bloody sigil as the real meaning of the prophecy instead- it fits the story he told about a guy avoiding something, only to die underneath a picture of it. Everyone thinks this comet is important, and it turns out to be the bloody clothes of a dead knight.

I think if he was going to go for the "joke" version, he'd use the show's "Born amidst salt and smoke? Is he a ham?" thing being fulfilled when his body gets thrown in an ice cellar with the food

Well, I think the root issue of the comet is, people see what they want to and use it to validate their decisions. It's the folly of omens and superstition.

I think the biggest issue for me is that the comet was ALREADY IN THE GODDAMN SKY before the dragons hatched. I don't see how it can be used as a causal omen for dragons when it would have already been in the sky regardless of whether Dany lit the pyre. She takes it as a "sign" to validate the decision she had already made, and that's it. The comet being in the sky did not cause the dragons to hatch (unless you think Dany wouldn't have otherwise lit the pyre, which isn't implied at all), and dragons hatching did not cause the comet. They correlate with each other and that's it. But correlation is not causation.

Agreed. Prophecy being fulfilled in a mundane, ironic way while the loud, flashy stuff ends up being meaningless and/or red herrings. That sounds like something GRRM would write. That's basically what the king and the castle prophecy was, a prophecy being fulfilled in an unexpected and kind of boring way.

The bleeding star comes before the rebirth. So the comet coming before the dragons, is consistent.

I think Melisandre and Ned are both right. Ned says that a leader needs to get to know the men and let them know him. But he also says there needs to be some distance -- your men are not your friends.

One way to create this distance, while still mingling, is through using the trappings of power. This is the whole point of Cersei's walk of shame. Before that, people looked at her like she was a goddess. After, she is just a person.

Or what about Blackfyre. Daemon was the "king with the sword." But all of the air went out of Daemon II's rebellion when people started asking "where is the sword?"

And personal bodyguards. The KG are the best example (recall Renly hoping that Barristan will join him, and worries that he will join Robb or someone else). Ned has them too, but Jon doesn't.

Jon is playing it exactly wrong. He isolates himself -- stops mingling -- but doesn't cultivate the image of a leader.

Ned knew the value of trappings of power

- ate dinner with his men, but sat above them

- enacted justice with Ice, the ancestral sword that proclaimed him Stark and ruler (Jorah even mentioned that Ice would be the one coming for him)

- brought Ice south with him when he became Hand

- called his banners for Robert's Rebellion from Winterfell instead of just sending messages from the Vale

[markg171]

And you know the worst thing? Aemon knows this. And Aemon is blind. So, not only Rhaegar wrote him about his private sex life but people HAD TO READ him about this.

"'Dear grand-grand-grand uncle. That night, there was a comet. I thought "maybe, it's a sign!" So, I took Elia to our bedroom and I---'... ok, Sorry, Maester Aemon... but I didn't take the black for this... emo tween porno!".

Already pointed this out, but Rhaegar found out about the comet AFTER he fucked Elia. Not before.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Already pointed this out, but Rhaegar found out about the comet AFTER he fucked Elia. Not before.

Sure? A comet is a big event. I doubt it went unnoticed unless they were living inside a cave.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

And you know the worst thing? Aemon knows this. And Aemon is blind. So, not only Rhaegar wrote him about his private sex life but people HAD TO READ him about this.

"'Dear grand-grand-grand uncle. That night, there was a comet. I thought "maybe, it's a sign!" So, I took Elia to our bedroom and I---'... ok, Sorry, Maester Aemon... but I didn't take the black for this... emo tween porno!".

Had Aemons eyes already gone in 281 AC?

Already pointed this out, but Rhaegar found out about the comet AFTER he fucked Elia. Not before.

Where is this stated?

[markg171]

"No one ever looked for a girl ... It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar I thought... the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above Kings Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet."

Rhaegar lived on Dragonstone. Yet the comet was seen over King's Landing. So someone would have had to have told him about the comet, and he did the math and realized it was the same day.

[Mithras]

I do not think that the red comet was a red herring. The comet appeared after Ned was beheaded with Ice. I think that event somehow had a magical consequence, maybe fulfillment of a part of prophecies. That is because Ned's spirit is in the crypts now and he will tell Jon about his parentage (which is the waking of the stone dragon).

The magical nature of that event can be seen in Oathbreaker and WW too. If you reread the chapter where Tobho introduced the swords to Tyrion and Tywin, you can see that those swords became extraordinary even for a VS blade.

I also believe that the red comet will return, soon after the assassination of Jon. If we believe in Ides of Marsh, why should we not believe in Caesar’s Jon’s comet too?

I think the comet will have another very important part to play.

Most people think that the fall of the Wall will initiate the Others invasion.

But I think the crash of the red comet might be the real cause. The dust cloud after the impact will block the sunlight. So, every magic that draws power from the sun will be weakened and the Others will become very strong. Perhaps they will be able to penetrate the ward at the cave or the Wall. In TWOIAF, there are several accounts of the blockage of sun during the LN.

A possible clue for this scenario might be this quote: The brightest flame casts the darkest shadows.

Meteorites emit tremendous amount of light as they fall while they are burning out in the atmosphere. In night time, it blazes so bright. You can see it

or

or

or here or the famous one in Russia

.Of course the red comet's fall will be significantly brighter.

This scenario might also be related to the sacrificial burning of someone by Mel in TWoW. If the comet appears after a person is burned and fills the world with light as it descends down, the red choir will probably weep with joy. But after the crash, the dust will cover the sky and the dawn will not come. The false light will lead men deeper into darkness as Aemon said.

[Ygrain]

And you know the worst thing? Aemon knows this. And Aemon is blind. So, not only Rhaegar wrote him about his private sex life but people HAD TO READ him about this.

"'Dear grand-grand-grand uncle. That night, there was a comet. I thought "maybe, it's a sign!" So, I took Elia to our bedroom and I---'... ok, Sorry, Maester Aemon... but I didn't take the black for this... emo tween porno!".

:lmao: :lmao: :lmao:

Given that Rhaegar was such a literary mind, I have little doubt that his writing style was eloquent and, hm, colourful.

[Ser Yolo Swaggins]

I think the red comet was put there in case GRRM got sick of all this and decided **** it, Genocide.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

"No one ever looked for a girl ... It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar I thought... the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above Kings Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet."

Rhaegar lived on Dragonstone. Yet the comet was seen over King's Landing. So someone would have had to have told him about the comet, and he did the math and realized it was the same day.

That doesn't really necessarily say anything about when Rhaegar learned about the comet. First of all, King's Landing and Dragonstone are reasonably close together. Why wouldn't they be able to see such a comet on Dragonstone, while it is clearly visible in King's Landing.

Second, look at the timeline. Rhaegar and Elia got married in 280 AC, and Rhaenys was born that same year. Following Rhaenys' birth, Elia went on bedrest for some 6 months. Aegon was born by the time Rhaegar left for the Riverlands, very early in 282 AC.

9 months pregnancy (Rhaenys) + 6 months bedrest + 9 months pregnancy (Aegon) = 24 months = 2 years, otherwise known as that moment where Rhaegar left for the Riverlands (and would eventually disappear with Lyanna an unknown amount of time later).

So we can place when Aegon's conception would have taken place, slightly (but not exactly). We also know that Rhaegar presented Rhaenys at court. When? Where was Elia? I'll get back to this.

The Tourney at Harrenhal. It was a scandal that Rhaegar crowned Lyanna and not Elia, but no one ever mentions that Elia was multiple months pregnant. The tourney obviously took place while Elia was already pregnant (timeline). The only question that remains is, how long? That it is only said that it was a scandal because Rhaegar was already married, and not that it was a scandal because Rhaegar was already married, and his wife was pregnant besides, would suggest that Elia's pregnancy wasn't known to Westeros by then. So she would have been only a few months pregnant. Did only she and Rhaegar know?

So if the tourney took place when Elia was only a few months pregnant (2-3? 4?), the place of conception comes into play. Elia, we should not forget, was attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood. It is nowhere specified when this occured (I had really hoped the world book would say something about this), but there are only a few options. Before her wedding to Rhaegar, in between her wedding and her move to Dragonstone, after her 6-month bedrest period was over, but before Harrenhal. Before her wedding to Rhaegar seems impossible, because that would mean that the KG would have been chasing the bad guys for more than a year. In between her wedding and her move to Dragonstone would also seem highly unlikely, because that would require the KG to have spend roughly a year chasing the b ad guys. And in addition, Oswell Whent would have been occupied, and not have the time to visit his brother (the tourney was announced shortly after Oswell had visited Walter). So after the bedrest period has ended seems to be the only option that remains.

Which would place Elia on the mainland of Westeros, and could easily have been around the same time as Rhaegar presenting Rhaenys to court. Perhaps they went together.. Perhaps Rhaegar and Rhaenys went first, and Elia followed a few weeks later. It would seem likely that they remained at King's Landing in between this event and the tourney.. Why make such a crossing multiple times in only a short period of time? It would be easier, especially for the only recently recovered Elia, to remain at one place, and travel together with court to Harrenhal. If the attack on Elia occured after she had just arrived (an attack on his daughter-in-law and LC of his KG sounds like the most likely motivation of Aerys to have finally send his KG out against the brotherhood, and we know that Hightower did not lead the group, which sounds like it happened shortly after he got an arrow through his hand) then there would be a few months to fight and defeat the brotherhood, have Jaime travel from KL to CR (a month after he left KL, a letter arrived telling him to present himself to the King at Harrenhal), and have everyone then travel to Harrenhal, where it all happened.

Which could thus easily mean that Rhaegar and Elia were in KL during Aegon's conception. And it doesn't have been the order of `Rhaegar saw comet´ and ´Rhaegar decided to have sex with Elia´. It could also be the order of ´Rhaegar had sex with Elia´ and ´Rhaegar next saw the comet through the window´, leading him to suspect that Elia had been impregnated.

If Elia would, within a month or two, discover she was indeed pregnant, Rhaegar´s believes that Elia was pregnant with the promised prince would have been increased, and the eventual birth of a boy would be the thing to sway Rhaegar from believing he was the promised prince, to believing it was Aegon. Nowhere is it stated when Rhaegar changed his mind, only when he wrote about it in a letter, after all.

[Greymoon]

BC posted this on another thread, here's the link: http://www.adriasnews.com/2012/10/george-r-r-martin-interview.html?spref=tw

Another curious thing of your books is that you give us a lot of hints through the Red God flames, the words of the Ghost of the High Heart or through the visions of the House of the Undying…

[Laughs] Well, are they spoilers? You have to look them very carefully to figure out what they mean. Not all of them mean what they seem to mean...

Surely the plot is very unpredictable despite all the prophecies you give to help us...

[Laughs] Prophecies are, you know, a double edge sword. You have to handle them very carefully; I mean, they can add depth and interest to a book, but you don’t want to be too literal or too easy... In the Wars of the Roses, that you mentioned, there was one Lord who had been prophesied he would die beneath the walls of a certain castle and he was superstitious at that sort of walls, so he never came anyway near that castle. He stayed thousands of leagues away from that particular castle because of the prophecy. However, he was killed in the first battle of St. Paul de Vence and when they found him dead he was outside of an inn whose sign was the picture of that castle! [Laughs] So you know? That’s the way prophecies come true in unexpected ways. The more you try to avoid them, the more you are making them true, and I make a little fun with that.

So the bleeding star, is most likely not a comet. The place of salt and smoke is most likely not Dragonstone, either.

[BearQueen87]

And personal bodyguards. The KG are the best example (recall Renly hoping that Barristan will join him, and worries that he will join Robb or someone else). Ned has them too, but Jon doesn't.

\

Jon has his own body guard/KG. It's Ghost....another "white shadow"

[Ygrain]

BC posted this on another thread, here's the link: http://www.adriasnews.com/2012/10/george-r-r-martin-interview.html?spref=tw

So the bleeding star, is most likely not a comet. The place of salt and smoke is most likely not Dragonstone, either.

Ahaha, I knew it! Jon will be revived among salted meat and smoked ham! (an old one but I couldn't resist)

- Was it tze who suggested that salt and smoke are actually snow and mist described by someone from hot climate? I like the idea best.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

How do blue winter roses signify Jon Snow?
Blue rose(s) or flowers or just roses are patterns strewn all over the series. In short, we learn of the garland of blue winter roses that Rhaegar uses to crown Lyanna Queen of Love and Beauty at the Grand Tourney at Harrenhal ... by laying it in her lap. Rose petals spilling from Lyanna's palm are seen in Ned's dream at the time of her death. In ACoK we learn the story of Bael the Bard asking the fairest blue winter rose in Winterfell. When that has been granted he steals the Stark's maiden daughter who, a year later, returns from the crypts with their son, the new Stark. Dany then sees in a vision A blue flower grew from a chink in a wall of ice. Read more in Jon Snow and the Blue Rosetta Stone by J.Stargaryen.

eta: updated with literals quotations (from Eddard and Dany chapters) as per @Ygrain's and J.Scorrections.

[Ygrain]

How do blue winter roses signify Jon Snow?

Blue rose(s) or flowers or just roses are patterns strewn all over the series. If you like podcasts, lend an ear to Lady Gwyn and yolkboy's Radio Westeros episoce "RLJ - A Dragon, a Wolf and a Rose". In short, we learn of the garland of blue winter roses that Rhaegar uses to crown Lyanna Queen of Love and Beauty at the Grand Tourney at Harrenhal. At the time of her death she is seen still clutching it in Ned's dream. In ACoK we learn the story of Bael the Bard asking the fairest blue winter rose in Winterfell. When that has been granted he steals the Stark's maiden daughter who, a year later, returns from the crypts with their son, the new Stark. Dany then sees it in a vision growing from a chink in The Wall. Read more in Jon Snow and the Blue Rosetta Stone by J.Stargaryen.

Er... it might sound weird from me but for the sake of academic honesty, she is not. She is holding some roses which were apparently dear to her and were so old that they were dry, but I am not sure we should claim as fact that it was indeed the wreath.

[addicted to snow]

Part of the reason I think the comet is a red herring. Too many people are using it to "make" things happen. But I could totally see Martin using a bloody sigil as the real meaning of the prophecy instead- it fits the story he told about a guy avoiding something, only to die underneath a picture of it. Everyone thinks this comet is important, and it turns out to be the bloody clothes of a dead knight.

I think that the Red Comet is more plot-central than most readers can possibly imagine... We've only been told 1/2 of the story thus far...

[BearQueen87]

I think that the Red Comet is more plot-central than most readers can possibly imagine... We've only been told 1/2 of the story thus far...

5/7 = / = 1/2

(I will grand possibly 5/8)

[imaginepageant]

The place of salt and smoke is most likely not Dragonstone, either.

This is sort of off-topic and really a reach and not even close to being any sort of theory, BUT... in my re-read of the ironborn arc, I found it curious that Aeron gives driftwood cudgels to the men he drowns and revives, to use against "the enemies of their god." I did a bit of research on it, as I'm brewing a theory that the Drowned God is the Great Other, and using wooden weapons against a god of fire seemed kind of pointless. Turns out it's toxic to burn driftwood, because when the salt within combusts, it releases carcinogenic dioxins in the smoke. I saw this and my mind went "HANG ON SALT AND SMOKE?" Again, this is in no way a theory of anything, but I thought it was really interesting that followers of the Drowned God battling followers of R'hllor might result in salt and smoke.

[Jon Weirgaryen]

Er... it might sound weird from me but for the sake of academic honesty, she is not. She is holding some roses which were apparently dear to her and were so old that they were dry, but I am not sure we should claim as fact that it was indeed the wreath.

You may have hit the nail there, so I'll put it like this

she is seen clutching a garland of roses

Rose petals spilling from her palm are seen in Ned's dream at the time of her death

and update my post above. Will also had to check the text for the exact words (crown/garland/wreath of) and updated that too, if necessary.

[Ygrain]

You may have hit the nail there, so I'll put it like this

and update my post above. Will also had to check the text for the exact words (crown/garland/wreath of) and updated that too, if necessary.

Here's all the usage:

“Promise me, Ned,” Lyanna’s statue whispered. She wore a garland of pale blue roses, and her eyes wept blood.

Ned remembered the moment when all the smiles died, when Prince Rhaegar Targaryen urged his horse past his own wife, the Dornish princess Elia Martell, to lay the queen of beauty’s laurel in Lyanna’s lap. He could see it still: a crown of winter roses, blue as

frost.

Ned Stark reached out his hand to grasp the flowery crown, but beneath the pale blue petals the thorns lay hidden. He felt them clawing at his skin, sharp and cruel, saw the slow trickle of blood run down his fingers, and woke, trembling, in the dark.

Promise me, Ned, his sister had whispered from her bed of blood. She had loved the scent of winter roses.

But there were others with faces he had never known in life, faces he had seen only in stone. The slim, sad girl who wore a crown of pale blue roses and a white gown spattered with gore could only be Lyanna.

[ReleaseTheHound]

The slim, sad girl who wore a crown of pale blue roses and a white gown spattered with gore could only be Lyanna.

Did they have a specific colour for wedding gowns back then? I think it's interesting lyannas wearing a white gown which is usually linked to marriage