A+J=T v. 4

[Suzanna Stormborn]

I have to disagree... If Aerys cared about the blood only, Elia would have been the perfect candidate. The right age, the right blood, highborn enough...

Aerys send Steffon to Volantis to find a suitable bride, specifically "a maid of noble birth from an old Valyrian bloodline". Nowhere is it suggested Aerys was looking for a Blackfyre descendant, or any descendant from Aerion/Maegor. Definitly not a sexworker...

Aerys wanted someone of Valyrian blood, most likely with the right appearance (classical Valyrian looks), but he wouldn't simply accept anyone.. "suitable", "noble birth", and "maid" are the terms he gave, and those, Steffon simply couldn't meet. Neither could Cersei... And Elia could meet only the blood-criterium, which is why he eventually accepted her, it seems (that, and the added bonus of annoying Tywin a great amount).

He said a 'maid of noble birth from an old valyrian bloodline'....... You dont think that would include someone like Serra who worked in a Lysene pillow house? She is most likely a brightflame descendant kin to the Targaryens, white blonde hair, fits the bill that Aerys was looking for except that she was not of noble birth. I bet if it came down to it, Aerys would prefer someone with BOTD over a title. And yes he chose Elia, but she was not even close to his first choice, she is what he settled for when he could not find a lost Valyrian girl in Essos. My personal theory is that Serra is exactly who he was looking for, but Illyrio found her first.

Rhaenys,

yes, the idea that Aerys - or any Targaryen king - actually cared about the ill-begotten offspring of the Blackfyres, Prince Aerion during his short-term exile, or any descendants the brothel-proprietor Saera Targaryen may have had in Volantis is very unlikely. Nobody ever wanted to marry a Targaryen prince to a Black Pearl, either. I can see Daeron II choosing close legitimate Targaryen cousin through the female line as brides for Baelor and Aerys but back then they would have been the closest female kin the Targaryens had. Those houses - even if they still carried Targaryen blood after a century - are no longer close enough to the throne to justify choosing a future queen from their ranks.

But the decision for Elia wasn't smart, either - which is why I think Aerys was partially manipulated into this. She was always sickly and would have trouble giving birth. On the other hand, Aerys may have settled on a sickly bride for Rhaegar to ensure that he would not have (m)any descendants. If the public announcement of the betrothal occurred around the same time it was actually made then Aerys reached an understanding with the Princess of Dorne after Duskendale.

Yeah but I am saying with the lack of any other Valyrian girls still around, someone like Serra is the only option. Whom do you think Aerys sent Baratheon to find if not a blackfyre/brightflame? If all he wanted was nobility then Elia would have been his first choice, or he could have gotten someone from the ruling families in Volantis....no no, since Stephon came back empty-handed that tells me he was looking for someone in particular and could not find her. There are a ton of people in Volantis that are of Valyrian decent.

And this was well before the Black Pearl's times, plus she does not have the 'look' Aerys wanted.

[Maia]

. But my theory is that Tywin has an inkling of the truth (and "really" knows) but suppresses the knowledge.

I can't agree with this. A lot of people say that Tywin would have had to be willfully blind to not know about J&C. However, not only had he been largely absent during their childhoods, they didn't all 3 live in the same place afterwards either. And from both twins' PoVs we know that they have always been very careful around their father. All 3 of Tywin's children have seriously underestimated Kevan, however, so he would have been in position to notice more and thus to become convinced once the accusations became public. Also, the 3 children favoring one parent, while unusual, is not impossible.

I am sure that it flattered Tywin's vanity that his grandchildren had Lannister look, but his intention of marrying Cersei off again in ASoS and having her disprove the rumors by producing yet another Lannister-looking child shows that he didn't believe that their appearance was due to incest. Nor is the any reason to think that he would have in any way approved of suicidally (and potentially House-ending) dangerous idiocy of the twincest.

OTOH, Tywin would have had to be blind not to suspect Tyrion's parentage from the start - when the latter had been born with _black_ hair and eye that none of his parents or immediate ancestors could have supplied. I have always wondered about Tywin's willingness to imply that Tyrion was a bastard - when it was also a serious slander of his beloved wife.

And of his going out of his way to insult her dear friend the Princess of Dorne so soon after Joanna's death. It always seemed to me that he was grieving, yes, but also angry at his dead wife, more so than merely dying on him would have warranted. I mean, the Dornish alliance may not have been as advantagious as he may have wished, but it was Joanna's last wish, as it were, and not completely out there either. There was no reason to snub the Martells so harshly.

Particularly since we now know that Tywin's relationship with Aerys had already been quite strained at the time, so destroying an already existing friendly relationship with another Great House was especially counter-productive.

But if Tywin thought that Joanna had cuckolded him, then his lashing out against her friend, the Dornish one, who may have been seen as the one who had encouraged Joanna's libertine behavior back when she was young in the first place, makes perfect emotional, if not political sense.

If Tywin knew on a more conscious level, I don't think Tywin would have waited to send Tyrion to the Wall for an opportunity that basically fell into Tywin's lap. Tywin could have done what was done to Samwell and force Tyrion to the Wall at a relatively young age.

Not necessarily the Wall, but Tywin should have put Tyrion in one of the celibate Orders regardless of his parentage. Tyrion, unlike Sam even gave his father the cause to disown him, with his unsanctioned marriage to a commoner. And no, Tywin didn't think that joining the Faith was beneath a Lannister, as he didn't forbid it when Tyrion was openly preparing to do so.

Why Tywin didn't force Tyrion to follow through post-Tysha is pretty incomprehensible to me. For that matter, making Tysha join the silent sisters would have made so much more sense than a gang rape that made Tyrion's blunder publicly known...

So, yea. Maybe Tywin enjoyed having Tyrion as his punching bag and enacting on him humiliations that he himself had to suffer from Aerys. Certainly, for somebody who allegedly hated the Lannisters being laughed at, he seemed to go out of his way to encourage his vassals to openly mock his youngest son.

Or maybe there was something else.

Something along the lines of "naked is a back without a brother" and Jaime's cousins being too young/not measuring up to the role, while Jaime was very fond of Tyrion and Tyrion had qualities that would be useful to Jaime.

But IMHO, Tywin felt safe not doing anything decisive because Tyrion was a dwarf, who at first wasn't expected to live to adulthood and later was never seen as a possible Lannister heir due to his disability. It is only once Tyrion had publicly proven his mettle during his stint as an acting Hand, that he got a real shot at enforcing his inheritance rights. And Tywin moved to forestall that, first one way, then another.

But when Tywin needed to deal with a situation where the evidence pointed toward Tyrion as Joffrey's killer, the opportunity fed into Tywin's underlying feelings toward Tyrion.

I am not even sure that Tywin didn't believe that Tyrion was guilty. Certainly, his history with Aerys's treachery and general anti-bastard prejudices may have primed him to believe in Tyrion's guilt in the ways that the latter couldn't anticipate. Basically, Cersei's meddling or not, case against Tyrion was quite solid. Kevan, no dummy despite Tyrion's belittling of him, was reasonably convinced.

After all, Tyrion is not stupid. Tywin would have realized that, his maester would have told him about his talents, etc. One should expect him to accept Tyrion as his heir - what better way to show the greatness of House Lannister if a smart dwarf lord takes over the reins from Tywin.

I completely disagree with this. Not only would have Tyrion needed to be a brilliant politician to make a go of it - which couldn't be predicted in advance, despite him being an intelligent child - historically some otherwise gifted and highly educated people have often made a terrible hash of politics, but maesters would have told Tywin that chances were high that some of Tyrion's children would also be dwarfs.

So, no, not only Tywin if he believed Tyrion to be trueborn, but even a loving noble parent such as Ned should and would have never made a dwarf their heir.

However, I agree that Tywin would have treated Tyrion differently if he believed him to be his.

He said a 'maid of noble birth from an old valyrian bloodline'....... You dont think that would include someone like Serra who worked in a Lysene pillow house? .

Not a maid by definition, no? Of course, I don't see why we should believe anything that Illyrio told Tyrion about Serra. IMHO, it was all a crock of sh*t intended to throw Tyrion off the scent.

[Lord Varys]

Maia,

I'm not sure Tywin knew that Tyrion was contemplating to become a septon. In fact, it may be that Tyrion never actually talked about that openly as he would have realized that sex with himself was interesting quite some time before he met Tysha.

I think if Tywin had been convinced that Tyrion was his - and if he had been Joanna's only son (Jaime either not existing or being dead for quite some time) he may have put his effort behind making Tyrion his heir. The heir thing could have been circumvented by marrying Tyrion to another Lannister girl - say Myrielle or Cerenna - and having another Lannister (say, himself) father children on her. Or having Tyrion first father a bunch of bastards to find out whether his children had a tendency to become dwarfs. Tywin could die at a time when Tyrion's children were adults, ensuring the succession for the next two generations.

But this would have to be a very different Tywin - one who would have to be convinced that Tyrion was his son, and one who had the grace/character to overlook or accept Tyrion's flaws. But the Starks think crippled Brandon can become a lord - if that can work, then a dwarf could also become a lord - especially if a man like Tywin put his full support behind his efforts. And is not as if Tywin had not treated Tyrion as his son in front of outsiders and his bannermen. He was always a Lannister of Casterly Rock and enjoyed any advantage that came with his birth. Tyrion wasn't raised as a dwarf version of Cinderella at Casterly Rock - he did not lack money and prestige, only the support, acceptance, and love of his father.

I agree with the Serra thing. We have no proof that Serra even existed - the picture Illyrio showed Tyrion could actually have been a miniature of Daenerys. Illyrio would have been given intelligence on Tyrion's history and character by Varys, and Illyrio clearly uses the Serra story as means to get to Tyrion and to connect to him - it is a sad story about a lost love, and Tyrion happened to have lost both Tysha (in a sense) as well as Shae. There may have been a woman named Serra who was Aegon's mother (or not) but the stuff about her being a whore (connection to both Tysha and Shae) as well as her death may be complete nonsense.

I'd not be surprised one bit if Lemore turned out to be Aegon's mother. If I was Illyrio/Varys I'd put at least one of the core players of my conspiracy close to the golden boy. And it is clear that Lemore is very much involved in the whole plot...

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Not a maid by definition, no? Of course, I don't see why we should believe anything that Illyrio told Tyrion about Serra. IMHO, it was all a crock of sh*t intended to throw Tyrion off the scent.

Well yeah she's not a maid, idk, it seems like Aerys was reaching for the stars with his request for this fabled girl who could actually meet this criteria. But I still think if Stephon had made it to the dock with Serra, Aerys would have been ok with it. Aerys strikes me as one of those mad Targs like Aemond one-eye, I imagine Aeyrs thinks there is nothing better than sharing blood with him personally and possibly having BOTD. But I am still confused why Stephon would come back empty handed after this discussion, like I said. Every noble family in Volantis originates from Valyria (or they have to claim it to be considered a voter or whatever). So it seems like there would have been a girl out there that would fit the bill..........I think GRRM is stressing the fact that there really are very very few true Valyrians left.

And yes I agree Illyrio is full of it in some cases, but I see no reason for him to lie about his beloved wife and how they came to be together or how she died. I mean Tyrion could easily check the facts on that plague that swept through Pentos and killed Serra. Plus, idk if you believe the Brightfyre theory about fAegon, but I certainly do, and Illyrio's info on Serra lines up perfectly with that theory, so I do believe that part of what he says.

ETA: LV,

Even if Illyrio did lie about Serra dying, and Lemore is Serra it's still likely that he found her in the Lysene Pillow house. The App on Illyrio and Varys says that's where they found her and that she did die. But I concede we dont know for sure as the App also says Jon Snow is dead, but the Pillow House thing is most likely true We'll have to put a pin in this til WoW :(

[Chinoiserie]

Maia your post was really great.

OTOH, Tywin would have had to be blind not to suspect Tyrion's parentage from the start - when the latter had been born with _black_ hair and eye that none of his parents or immediate ancestors could have supplied. I have always wondered about Tywin's willingness to imply that Tyrion was a bastard - when it was also a serious slander of his beloved wife.
And of his going out of his way to insult her dear friend the Princess of Dorne so soon after Joanna's death. It always seemed to me that he was grieving, yes, but also angry at his dead wife, more so than merely dying on him would have warranted. I mean, the Dornish alliance may not have been as advantagious as he may have wished, but it was Joanna's last wish, as it were, and not completely out there either. There was no reason to snub the Martells so harshly.
Particularly since we now know that Tywin's relationship with Aerys had already been quite strained at the time, so destroying an already existing friendly relationship with another Great House was especially counter-productive.

But if Tywin thought that Joanna had cuckolded him, then his lashing out against her friend, the Dornish one, who may have been seen as the one who had encouraged Joanna's libertine behavior back when she was young in the first place, makes perfect emotional, if not political sense.

You know interesting idea that the Dornish princess was the one responsible for Joanna's liberal ways. Tywin's behavior seems to have been very emotional. If was very much grieving or he wanted someone to blame for her death and Tyrion or he was just mad at Joanna in general. If Aerys and Joanna had an affair before her marriage I would think the Dornish princess might have encouraged her or at least that it what Tywin would think. Tywin did blame on couple of occasions of Tyrion killing his mother so Tywin must have some feelings for her still but his behavior after her death could also be explained by feeling betrayed and bitter.

And speaning of the Dornish princess, I have wondered about this quote by Oberyn:

“And there was an empty cabin on our ship, a very nice cabin, such as might be kept for a person of high birth. As if it were intended that we take someone back to Sunspear. A young page, perhaps. Or a companion for Elia. Your lady mother meant to betroth Jaime to my sister, or Cersei to me.”

I wonder if the empty cabin was not meant for Jaime or Cersei but for Tyrion. If Joanna suspected she might be having Aerys's child she might have wanted her friend to take the baby away is Tyrion had had Targaryen looks. The marriages could have also been planned but Oberyn does not know who the cabin is for.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Lord Varys,

That the decision eventually fell on a woman who had always been sickly, even though it was essential Rhaegar would have a soon, is a remarkable one, and surely, there was more behind it than her blood... Which makes me wonder how much Doran had to do with it, and whether or not he had been against it (despite there nothing he could have done about it).

Duskendale ended in 277 AC, Steffon died during an unknown moment in 278 AC, the betrothal was announced in early 279 AC. If agreement and announcement came around the same time, it suggests to me that at least a few months had passed since Steffon's death. With Aerys sending out Steffon a year before the announcement of betrothal, I see no reason to consider that the agreement had come before Duskendale, or even in early 278 AC, before Steffons mission..

He said a 'maid of noble birth from an old valyrian bloodline'....... You dont think that would include someone like Serra who worked in a Lysene pillow house? She is most likely a brightflame descendant kin to the Targaryens, white blonde hair, fits the bill that Aerys was looking for except that she was not of noble birth. I bet if it came down to it, Aerys would prefer someone with BOTD over a title. And yes he chose Elia, but she was not even close to his first choice, she is what he settled for when he could not find a lost Valyrian girl in Essos. My personal theory is that Serra is exactly who he was looking for, but Illyrio found her first.

Yeah but I am saying with the lack of any other Valyrian girls still around, someone like Serra is the only option. Whom do you think Aerys sent Baratheon to find if not a blackfyre/brightflame? If all he wanted was nobility then Elia would have been his first choice, or he could have gotten someone from the ruling families in Volantis....no no, since Stephon came back empty-handed that tells me he was looking for someone in particular and could not find her. There are a ton of people in Volantis that are of Valyrian decent.

And this was well before the Black Pearl's times, plus she does not have the 'look' Aerys wanted.

A girl from a pillow house indeed does not count as 'noble birth'. Especially not if we should believe the theories about Serra and Varys having been siblings, as that would indicate Serra was born in slavery (which she very well might have been, regardless of Varys' relations).

If Aerys had been looking for Aerion or Maegors descendants, he wouldn't have gone looking in Volantis, now would he? Westeros was the last location of Maegor that we know of, and Aerions potential bastards (which have never been confirmed to have existed) would have been in Lys. Steffon and Cassana went to Volantis. Way further than Lys, showing Lys was not their location.

Aerys wasn't necessarily looking for someone with blood of the dragon, but blood of Valyria (there were only forty dragonriding families, and only one survived the Doom). Aerys wanted ancient blood, as House Velaryon (which fits the bill of looks, dragonsblood, and enjoying the royal trust of the king) wasn't good enough. It seems that the Velaryons weren't good enough for Aerys, so why would a girl working in a pillow house be?

As to Steffon returning empty-handed, it appears that Aerys wanted the best of the best, and those would only be a few families in Volantis, and if none had a daughter fitting the criteria who was still unwed/unpromised, or, if there was no family interested in wedding their daughter to the crown prince of a Kingdoms quite far away, there was nothing much that Steffon could do.

There have been Black Pearls since Bellegere, so there surely would have been one available, though possibly somewhat older than Rhaegar.

[Lord Varys]

I've been thinking about this. The best guess I could come up with is that Aerys tried to repeat the Varys experiment with Rhaegar's bride - get an outsider in with no connections to Westerosi families who would be unable to provide Rhaegar with new allies to scheme against his father. Something around those lines. Lys possibly could have offered what Aerys sought as Valyrian blood is still strong - although we don't know how many families are left there who can trace their ancestry back to the dragonlords and don't have also unworthy blood among their ancestors. The Saans clearly are a powerful and wealthy family, but we don't know if they are dragonlord relations. But we know that the Rogares and Serenei's family - she could have been the last Rogare, come to think of it, and Aegon the Unworthy may have had an affair with his own maternal aunt or cousin - are no longer there, and this may have happened to other ancient families in recent years.

However, it is clear that at least some of the founding families of Old Volantis are still there, and are continuously doing everything in their power to keep their bloodlines pure, so if Aerys wanted noble and ancient Valyrian blood with ties to the dragonlords of old Volantis was the place to look for it. I doubt that there weren't any prospective brides in Volantis who fit Aerys' criteria - which should suggest that no family of the Volentene elite wanted to marry his daughter to the Crown Prince of Westeros - either because this wouldn't give them much prestige and they had little to gain from such a match, or because Aerys' reputation as the mad king had already reached Volantis.

When that failed Aerys chose Elia whose family didn't have much/any influence at court at that time (and he may have been somewhat close to the Princess of Dorne). His hatred would only have begun after the Dornish courtiers swarmed around Rhaegar and began to form his party. If Arthur Dayne was near Rhaegar's age I imagine he joined the KG around that time. If Aerys intended that Rhaegar doesn't get any political gain/support from his marriage then he would have been very pissed that this didn't work.

[Maia]

I'm not sure Tywin knew that Tyrion was contemplating to become a septon.

I really don't see why Tyrion wouldn't have talked about it openly - we never saw any disdain for learning and religion from the Lannisters, apart from Cersei/Joff. He also remembered "wearing his knees out" in his devotions, so there was his public behavior, too.

But the Starks think crippled Brandon can become a lord - if that can work, then a dwarf could also become a lord - especially if a man like Tywin put his full support behind his efforts.

But Brandon wasn't likely to produce dwarf offspring and/or taint the bloodline! He would have either been unable to sire a child, or he would have had as much a chance of producing a healthy one as any other man. I am also not sure that the Starks wouldn't have encouraged Bran to pursue alternative careers in the future. Situation with Tyrion is very different in that his offspring could seriously endanger House Lannister, even if he himself is brilliant enough to overcome his handicaps in Westerosi society. And trying to circumvent this danger by having his official children be bastards of healthy Lannisters, etc. would only introduce further weak links. Nor would any number of healthy bastards guarantee anything, while even one dwarf one would make matters even worse. So, yea, I don't see Tywin confirming Tyrion as his heir even if he had been 100% sure of his parentage, nor do I see anybody in Westeros doing so either in his shoes.

And is not as if Tywin had not treated Tyrion as his son in front of outsiders and his bannermen.

No, he hadn't. He encouraged his bannermen to publicly mock Tyrion and laugh at him, as seen in AGoT. This, despite his stated hatred of the disrespect to the Lannister name. Also, we have seen that Tyrion is somebody who easily bonds with people even in most adverse circumstances, yet he had no friends at CR and in the West apart from Jaime and his younger uncles. I am sure that Tywin created this situation too.

I wonder if the empty cabin was not meant for Jaime or Cersei but for Tyrion. If Joanna suspected she might be having Aerys's child she might have wanted her friend to take the baby away is Tyrion had had Targaryen looks. The marriages could have also been planned but Oberyn does not know who the cabin is for.

This is a very interesting and original idea. Personally, I am sure that the Dornish were absolutely supposed to take one of the twins away for fosterage, as Joanna saw immediate need to separate them*, but it makes sense that she could have used this visit as a fallback if Tyrion proved to have embarrassing looks. As to Tywin blaming the Princess of Dorne for Joanna's cuckolding him, we have seen the prejudices against the Dornish through Arys Oakheart's PoV. It would make sense for grief-stricken, angry Tywin to blame Joanna's misbehavior on bad Dornish influence.

The best guess I could come up with is that Aerys tried to repeat the Varys experiment with Rhaegar's bride - get an outsider in with no connections to Westerosi families who would be unable to provide Rhaegar with new allies to scheme against his father.

This makes sense. OTOH, I imagine that Aerys also clang to the prophecy because it gave his own unhappy marriage meaning, so he didn't want to jeopardize it by the diluting the blood again. That Steffon failed to find a suitable candidate suggests some very specific requirements, being a verified descendant of a cadet branch of a dragonlord family being one of them, I imagine. I don't think that many families with eligible daughters would have refused the opportunity to provide a queen to huge and powerful (though barbaric) Westeros, so either nobody suitable had been available at the time, or Varys & Illyrio managed to carefully sabotage the mission. I used to think that Steffon had been looking for a Blackfyre descendant, but now that we know that he just went to Volantis, rather than touring several Free Cities, this seems much less likely. It now also seems probable that Lys was ignored as a source for a possible bride because Tywin had visited there, and in Aerys's paranoid imagination, had probably gotten to everybody of importance. So, yea, I used to think that Serra was who Steffon had been looking for and had been whisked away by Varys and Illyrio, but I am no longer convinced of it. I am reasonably certain that she was of Blackfyre descent and neither a slave nor a whore, though.

Re: Dornish not having any influence at court prior to Rhaegar's marriage, I dunno. Doran's mother (and her consort?) had been at court for some time and Arthur Dayne too, IIRC. It may be that Aerys had been so determined to forestall a Lannister marriage, that he didn't contemplate the likely implications of a Dornish one.

[Suzanna Stormborn]

Hey! Do you guys think Varys and Ilyrio have an idea about AJT? Does anyone else think that this is the reason they took so much trouble to get Tyrion to Dany and her riderless dragons?

And if not, then does anyone have an alternative explanation as to Illyrio giving a shit about Tyrion to this extent?

I am just thinking aloud and trying to blow these last 40 minutes of the work week :D

[RumHam]

I'm not sure that Varys knows, but he and Aerys Kingsguard at the time would be the most likely people to know.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Given that I tend to support the theory that fAegon is a Blackfyre/Brightflame descendant, and that V&I are supporting fAegon but NOT Dany, I am not sure why they would knowingly send Dany someone who could bond with a dragon and help Dany to defeat fAegon. V&I must know that Dany is a potential threat to fAegon at this point. Anything that helps her, hurts their cause. Or am I missing something in this analysis?

[Suzanna Stormborn]

yeah that's true. But then why send Tyrion to her at all?

No matter what we gotta get those dragons to Westeros, and they are not moving without riders......

Also V and I could possibly believe that fAegon will be able to ride a dragon with his BF blood.......

I am really looking for the motive of helping Tyrion get to Dany......

[Gibzit]

Given that I tend to support the theory that fAegon is a Blackfyre/Brightflame descendant, and that V&I are supporting fAegon but NOT Dany, I am not sure why they would knowingly send Dany someone who could bond with a dragon and help Dany to defeat fAegon. V&I must know that Dany is a potential threat to fAegon at this point. Anything that helps her, hurts their cause. Or am I missing something in this analysis?

Well, they still planned to have Aegon married to Dany when they sent Tyrion to Danaerys, so to V&I anyone on TeamDany is also on TeamAegon.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Well, they still planned to have Aegon married to Dany when they sent Tyrion to Danaerys, so to V&I anyone on TeamDany is also on TeamAegon.

OK. That is possible. So Dany gets one, Tyrion gets one and then they just need to get the third dragon to Westeros for fAegon to get his. And when he bonds, then everyone assumes he is "real" when he really has Targ blood from a completely different Targ line. That actually makes some sense -- if they are confident that can convince Dany to marry fAegon rather than be his rival (as those of us who expect DoD 2.0 think will happen). But I kind of like the theory from the point of view of V&I -- but they better be pretty confident that they can convince Dany to marry fAegon if that plan has a chance to work. Giving Dany another potentially loyal dragon rider is pretty dangerous -- and seems likely that if that was there plan, it will backfire big time.

As to whether there might be a different motive to get Tyrion to Dany -- I don't know. The more I think about it -- as long as we assume that V&I are confident they can get Dany to marry fAegon -- it makes perfect sense. I just am not sure why they would be so confident they could arrange such a marriage.

[Gibzit]

OK. That is possible. So Dany gets one, Tyrion gets one and then they just need to get the third dragon to Westeros for fAegon to get his. And when he bonds, then everyone assumes he is "real" when he really has Targ blood from a completely different Targ line. That actually makes some sense -- if they are confident that can convince Dany to marry fAegon rather than be his rival (as those of us who expect DoD 2.0 think will happen). But I kind of like the theory from the point of view of V&I -- but they better be pretty confident that they can convince Dany to marry fAegon if that plan has a chance to work. Giving Dany another potentially loyal dragon rider is pretty dangerous -- and seems likely that if that was there plan, it will backfire big time.

As to whether there might be a different motive to get Tyrion to Dany -- I don't know. The more I think about it -- as long as we assume that V&I are confident they can get Dany to marry fAegon -- it makes perfect sense. I just am not sure why they would be so confident they could arrange such a marriage.

The marriage makes a lot of sense for Dany, not only does she get 10k men (something she needs real bad) but she also gets a dragonrider, which is a really good deal.

She also gets to continue the Targ dynasty without risk of her kids taking on another name.

A really good marriage for Dany and for Aegon.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

yeah that's true. But then why send Tyrion to her at all?

Because Aegon was supposed to meet up with Dany, so he'd be their great political mind with insight into Lannister tactics?

[Weirdo]

They have never been anti-Dany - they just didn't see her coming. They thought they were building up Viserys by marrying her off. Who knows whether Viserys or Aegon was Plan A at that time; they would have supported either if needed - or even Moonboy, for all we know. They just wanted a winner.

After Viserys dies and Dany rises, Plan A was get Aegon to Dany, and they threw in Tyrion because he was available, and useful for his knowledge, wits, and hatred of his sister - but that might mean they know his heritage as well, and want him for a dragon.

Now that Aegon is in Westeros, I don't think V&I see Dany as a threat; she is now Plan B. Aegon could easily get himself killed on this campaign even before Dany arrives; she would presumably continue with her conquest plans, and Tyrion would be a help for the same reasons as before. So, consistent with them knowing OR not knowing A+J=T.

If Aegon prevails, or is close to prevailing, Dany might be cajoled into an alliance by marriage, and maybe they think Tyrion would help arrange that. They don't know him as well as they think they do, though. They have already underestimated Dany once, and they never would have foreseen Tyrion's redirection of Aegon to Westeros. Tyrion might be the very seed of DoD 2.0.

I think it's probable that IF A+J=T, THEN V&I have some knowledge of it. Sending Tyrion along is consistent with that. And assuming that he will back their plan is consistent with their blind spots around Tyrion and Dany - they don't understand irrational behavior. Tyrion is a trickster, and Dany is a mystic, and such people act according to their idiosyncrasies.

[Chinoiserie]

Well, they still planned to have Aegon married to Dany when they sent Tyrion to Danaerys, so to V&I anyone on TeamDany is also on TeamAegon.

Yes, Illyrio and Varys might have intended to test if Tyrion could be a suitable third head of the dragon.

[Consigliere]

UL,

It might be possible that V&I are still holding out for an alliance with Dany. If they do know/suspect AJT then helping Tyrion in his moment of need might ensure his loyalty to them and a third dragon rider is still needed. An Aegon/Arianne union and alliance with Dorne however will scupper these plans and bring about a Dany/Aegon conflict rather than alliance. I don't think that Aegon is as pliable as V&I think. Connington comes to this conclusion as well in his last chapter in Dance.

I just am not sure why they would be so confident they could arrange such a marriage.

Aegon's claim to be Rhaegar's son gives him a better claim to the throne than Dany. JonCon (a former Hand, Rhaegars former squire and companion) vouching for him lends credibility to this claim. Dany would no longer be the last of her line. Aegon brings with him an army 10,000 strong. It seems to me that V&I have every reason to be confident of arranging this mutually beneficial marriage.

[UnmaskedLurker]

Weirdo and Consigliere--

You (and Gibitz and SS) have shown me that I did not give this issue enough thought before. My thinking was greatly colored by my presumption that DoD 2.0 is inevitable -- but of course, V&I would not know that. I just never really thought about this issue too hard before.

So while this analysis is persuasive to me, I think that it is interesting that someone as smart as Varys appears to be would so miscalculate how Dany would likely respond to fAegon. And giving her Tyrion could make her even more dangerous -- but I understand that they thought fAegon would be with Tyrion and thus would be perceived as fAegon's ally and not Dany's ally against fAegon. So from that point of view, it would make sense that they would see Tyrion as a potential third dragon rider who would help his long-lost sister and nephew re-take Westeros.

I can see from V&I's point of view, how they would think that Dany would see fAegon as having the superior claim to the throne and should be eager to marry him and rule with him as his Queen and him as King. I get why they would want that to be true. I am just amused that Varys would not consider the great possibility that the person who already has the dragons might not be so eager to turn power over to someone who claims to be her long-lost nephew that she has been told was killed about 15 or more years ago -- and just accept JonCon's word for it (who cannot even verify that he was part of the "baby swap" plan but only met this boy when he was already 5 or so).

But if everyone in Westeros (and Essos) never made any mistakes in judgment, then GRRM would not have a story.