Apocalypse - What's the end game?

[Solmyr]

I see nobody addressing the growing threat of Zombie Beavers.

[Happy Ent]

Global Warming,

Ice Age,

Mega-Earthquakes,

Plague / Disease,

Bio-Weapons released by terrorists,

None of the above is a threat to our species. Millions might die, and even with billions dead, homo sapiens will continue. We’re pretty resilient and extremely advanced. Global warming is quite harmless on this scale—bioengineered superweapons are more scary, but it seems to be very hard to to construct something that actually wipes out everybody.

Alien Invasion

AI takeover

These two events could plausibly end us, and are within the laws of physics, but I don’t think either is going to happen. I just wrote about the latter for a Swedish philosophy journal, you can see the English translation here: http://thorehusfeldt.net/2015/04/10/the-monster-in-the-library-of-turing/ .

Shark-Nados

Zombies,

Not consistent with our understanding of how life and cartilaginous climate works, so not worth debating.

Asteroids,

Nuclear Winter,

Anything that shuts off the sun for years would be very bad for us. I’m not sure we sufficiently many nukes to make this happen (but am open to being corrected). But a good-sized asteroid would be a big problem. Very unlikely, though.

[The Marquis de Leech]

There's also Fritz Leiber's A Pail of Air scenario: Earth is ripped away from the Sun and flies off into space.

[BormonReborn]

These two events could plausibly end us, and are within the laws of physics, but I don’t think either is going to happen. I just wrote about the latter for a Swedish philosophy journal, you can see the English translation here: http://thorehusfeldt.net/2015/04/10/the-monster-in-the-library-of-turing/ .

Great article! True AI fascinates me. I truly believe its possible (kind of surprised it hasn't been created yet) As far as it being the end of us, that I don't think will happen. I would like to believe we can coexist with an AI intelligence. In the end though, an AI would have to be able to procreate to be any real threat to our species. I just can't see that happening without us (unless something like the Stargate Replicators happens.... then we are screwed!)

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

If true strong AI is created without the ability to replicate itself I suspect that could be cause for such AI to rebel against any human placed controls.

[Mitbert Strangejoy]

People have this absurd notion that we're beyond the threat of nuclear holocaust because we've survived -- barely, given several close calls -- for about 60 years with them. 60 years is the blink of an eye. If hundreds let alone thousands of modern nuclear warheads detonated in close succession, we have no idea what would happen. Assuming long-term nuclear winter is implausible (per recent studies), we may face dramatic post-short winter global warming due to the destruction of plant life, long term CO2 release from burning cities, and subsequent methane-generating plant decay. Think end-Permian extinction.

If there is a Great Filter (fermi paradox), I don't view AI as a good candidate, because that wouldn't explain the absence of AI civilizations.

[Jo498]

The AI threat is different from the (nano)replicators threat. The latter do not need to be intelligent. I think both are wildly exaggerated. (Not only because I think that many people are far to optimist about both technologies. If the optimist predictions I read almost 20 years ago we would already have nanobots cleaning our arteries, specifically attacking cancer cells etc.

Very good points in Happy Ent's review/comment of Bostrom's book. My impression is that Bostrom and Co are very fond of "in principle" argumentation and it's good to see someone from "practical" computer science showing some hard limits. There are also general points. I do not buy functionalism anyway but even granted this, nothing could be called intelligent without symbolic representation. So if current AI has largely abolished this field (or did I misread this?) in favor of different approaches, nothing close to human intelligence/rationality will be built.

For the whole species to die out there is not much besides some extremely unlikely and extremely unfavorable cosmic events (like asteroid strikes, gamma ray burst and similar things). Even if a virus eliminates 90% of the human population, the species will very probably survive. As for ice ages and similar things we have survived them several times with ice age technology.

I think similar considerations would probably apply to a nuclear holocaust/winter.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Mitbert,

The Permian/Triassic extiction was the result of millions of years of vulcanism and creation of the "Siberian Traps" that cover a third of Siberia today, 250 million years after their creation. I somehow doubt that a full nuclear exchange, while terribly devistating in its own right, would match "the Great Dying" of 250 milion years ago.

[Mitbert Strangejoy]

Mitbert,

The Permian/Triassic extiction was the result of millions of years of vulcanism and creation of the "Siberian Traps" that cover a third of Siberia today, 500 million years after their creation. I somehow doubt that a full nuclear exchange, while terribly devistating in its own right, would match "the Great Dying" of 500 milion years ago.

Perhaps. Methane release from plant decay may have been the proximate cause for much of the Great Dying. http://www.nature.com/news/archaeageddon-how-gas-belching-microbes-could-have-caused-mass-extinction-1.14958

The point is that we don't really know what would happen. Even a relatively short period of darkness covering the globe could have dramatic consequences, not to mention the immediate impact of nuclear detonations.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Mitbert,

No argument. It would be very bad. My point is that a million years of sustained Vulcanism on the scale of the Siberian Traps (2 kilometers thick at some points) would be several orders of magnitude worse than your secenario because it lasted for at least a million years.

[Myrddin]

Gamma ray burst within a few hundred light years from Earth will sterilize the planet. Any other scenario just makes for tough sledding for the human race.

Or turn us into large angry green people.

[DireWolfSpirit]

I think Mother Earth will well outlast the current human species.

Evolution: Library: The Current Mass Extinction - PBS

www.pbs.org/wgbh/evolution/library/03/2/l_032_04.html

Mammals, for instance, have an average species "lifespan" from origination to extinction of about 1 million years, although some species persist for as long as 10 million years. There are about 5,000 known mammalian species alive at present.

My guess for the Earths endgame would entail something involving the Sun consuming its mass.

[Trebla]

I would look to the Yellowstone super-volcano as the most likely lurking Apocalypse. http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/325805

I agree that a pandemic probably wouldn't kill us all but from that list I think it's the one that will happen much sooner than later. It's been nearly a 100 years since the Spanish Flu killed upwards to 75,000,000 people. Since then we've had a few epidemics like the Hong Kong Flu and the 2009 Flu that have killed thousands. Some scientists think we are overdue for a large flu pandemic. http://www.health24.com/Medical/Flu/News/WHO-warns-of-possible-flu-pandemic-20150302

[Mitbert Strangejoy]

Mitbert,

No argument. It would be very bad. My point is that a million years of sustained Vulcanism on the scale of the Siberian Traps (2 kilometers thick at some points) would be several orders of magnitude worse than your secenario because it lasted for at least a million years.

Yes and no. A slow release may allow some degree of adjustment and evolution (although a million years clearly isn't enough for much), while a sudden jolt doesn't. Also, solar radiation is stronger now than in the Permian, so I don't think we have much of a buffer if sudden methane release occurs.

A large scale nuclear war could involve as many as 3,000 or more nuclear weapons today, and maybe more (or hopefully fewer) in the future. Many of these weapons would be 1Mt. This could create unprecedented firestorms after impact in a very short period of time. Debris release and CO2 release would be the immediate consequence. Assuming no long-term nuclear winter due to debris release, we would have still lost a huge percentage of our atmospheric CO2 fixing capacity, added a great deal of CO2 to an already high CO2 atmosphere (although not as high as some times in our past; all of those periods had significantly lower solar radiation), and potentially set up conditions for massive CH4 release due to plant decay.

Of course, none of the impacts alone would have the impact of even the K-T asteroid, and the combined energy release would also be significantly less. But the impact in terms of fallout and resulting fires would be unprecedented for the planet.

[BormonReborn]

I think Mother Earth will well outlast the current human species.

My guess for the Earths endgame would entail something involving the Sun consuming its mass.

Well I don't think anyone doubts that will happen eventually.... but what is going to be around to see it? Will the human race be around in some way to witness it?

[DireWolfSpirit]

Well I don't think anyone doubts that will happen eventually.... but what is going to be around to see it? Will the human race be around in some way to witness it?

No we will go extinct in time just like most mammals do. There's no reason for me to believe we will get a pass from the evolutionary fate other species experience. From rise to extinction your on the clock in my view.

As mammals it looks like our range should be 1 to 10 million years. Earth itself will likely outlast our species for hundreds of millions of years. Perhaps we will be be a common ancestor to a new evolved species that will be around that long, but I doubt humans will come even close to the Earth's endgame imo.

[Talleyrand]

A Greco-Belgian War that gets a bit out of hand.

[HexMachina]

Apes all ready took over, and are the ones currently fucking it all up :P

Well played, well played. It's the beginning of the end then.

[maarsen]

If true strong AI is created without the ability to replicate itself I suspect that could be cause for such AI to rebel against any human placed controls.

To replicate all it would have to do is mate with a lathe.

Just ignore the images that come to mind.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Maarsen,

I think you need a bit more than a lathe to create a microcircuit.

:)