Do the Mountain Clans Abandon Stannis?

[StarkofWinterfell]

I am so incredibly surprised that this sparked 9 pages of discussion so far! I am glad that this is such a hot topic. I do agree with most that the Northerners are Stannis' allies right now and could choose to not go with him south if he ever turns that way but Mithras brings up a valid point.

 

 

 

“Winter is almost upon us, boy. And winter is death. I would sooner my men die fighting for the Ned’s little girl than alone and hungry in the snow, weeping tears that freeze upon their cheeks. No one sings songs of men who die like that. As for me, I am old. This will be my last winter. Let me bathe in Bolton blood before I die. I want to feel it spatter across my face when my axe bites deep into a Bolton skull. I want to lick it off my lips and die with the taste of it on my tongue.”

 

fArya or Arya, there are still Boltons.

 

The Northerners want Bolton blood; however, if they know Arya is fake, I refuse to believe they'll just shrug their shoulders and go on fighting. There might be some internal quarrels between the clans on what to do.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

This talk of independence is... well... where we got this idea? :dunno: Can we please not ignore the context in which this was discussed? They talked about severing the link with the crown after Joffrey ordered Ned to be killed and wanted Robb to bend the knee. This is pretty much a war declaration. And, this is not different from when Aerys asked for Ned's and Robert's heads. Did the Stormlands or the North declared independence? They rebelled, though. They rebelled by pretty much telling the King to go and fuck himself or they would do it for him.

And, after the Rebellion, everything remained the same.

During Robb's council it was also mentioned that "it was the dragons we kneel too" (paraphrasing), meaning that their allegiances were to the Targaryens because Torrhen Stark so wanted. And then, Ned Stark swore fealty to Robert Baratheon. They never swore anything to Joffrey Baratheon and less after what he did to them. The "it was the dragons we kneel for" quote is an indication that they have no problems with bending the knee for a convenient fair King. They were ok. under the rule of the Targaryens, and later, under Robert's. They are against Joffrey and the current crown not because "oh, we want to be free!" but because their ruling is not beneficial for them.

[Sullen]

How do you know his plan with out his PoV? Please give me some evidence not a baseless argument around how things turn out.

 

I judge people by their actions, and from his actions, his plan was to wait for Robert to die.

 

He can't find evidence holed up on Dragonstone, he doesn't send word to either Ned (known to dislike the Lannisters and love Robert as a brother), Renly (known to dislike and plot against the Lannisters, and a brother to Robert), or Robert (his liege, who the law said he had to warn and serve, which he didn't), and a witch shows up on Dragonstone telling him he'll be King and will save the world, which requires Robert to die.

 

I can't see how anyone can argue that Stannis wasn't waiting for Robert to die, with no one being able to find a good explanation as to why Stannis did nothing during the whole year when he thought he (and therefore his brother) was in danger.

[Stannis broatheon]

 
I judge people by their actions, and from his actions, his plan was to wait for Robert to die.
 
He can't find evidence holed up on Dragonstone, he doesn't send word to either Ned (known to dislike the Lannisters and love Robert as a brother), Renly (known to dislike and plot against the Lannisters, and a brother to Robert), or Robert (his liege, who the law said he had to warn and serve, which he didn't), and a witch shows up on Dragonstone telling him he'll be King and will save the world, which requires Robert to die.
 
I can't see how anyone can argue that Stannis wasn't waiting for Robert to die, with no one being able to find a good explanation as to why Stannis did nothing during the whole year when he thought he (and therefore his brother) was in danger.

So no evidence, thank you.

[Ser Pounce FTW]

I remember he was also thinking on visiting Stannis in Dragonstone. I'll have to check but I don't have books at hand.

 

Ned always acted bravely and with honor. No other man in the series can say that. He was not abandoning Robert. Here is the rest of it:

 

Tom looked apprehensive. "To Dragonstone, m'lord?" The island fortress of House Targaryen had a sinister repute.

 

"Tell Captain Qos to hoist my banner as soon as he comes in sight of the island. They may be wary of unexpected visitors. If he is reluctant, offer him whatever it takes. I will give you a letter to place into the hand of Lord Stannis Baratheon. No one else. Not his steward, nor the captain of his guard, nor his lady wife, but only Lord Stannis himself."

 

"As you command, m'lord."

 

The letters seemed to writhe and twist on the paper as his hand trailed to a stop. Lord Tywin and Ser Jaime were not men to suffer disgrace meekly; they would fight rather than flee. No doubt Lord Stannis was wary, after the murder of Jon Arryn, but it was imperative that he sail for King's Landing at once with all his power, before the Lannisters could march.

 

Ned chose each word with care. When he was done, he signed the letter Eddard Stark, Lord of Winterfell, Hand of the King, and Protector of the Realm, blotted the paper, folded it twice, and melted the sealing wax over the candle flame.

 

His regency would be a short one, he reflected as the wax softened. The new king would choose his own Hand. Ned would be free to go home. 

[Sullen]

So no evidence, thank you.

 

Circumstantial evidence is better than nothing, which is what people claiming Stannis wasn't waiting for Robert to die have.

[Tijgy]

Yes. So? He's now fighting a new war with new interests, one he has better chances to be successful. :dunno:

Honestly, I cannot imagine the Northeners saying "hey, this Stannis guy is offering us to put back the Starks in Winterfell, remove the Boltons, defeat the Others, solve the Wildlings problems... but we will say not because he lost Blackwater". LOL.

 

:lmao: Indeed LOL

 

To be honest, why are you all discussing who is not a good commander. It is actually said by a lot op people Stannis is a good commander, Tywin had to assassinate Robb and especially for a 15 year old Robb achieved a lot on the battlefield and Ned did win a number of large battles.

 

And to be short, it would not be because Stannis lost Blackwater that the Northerners would not follow Stannis. Actually, Stannis actually lost because the appearance of Tywin's and the Tyrells: Tywin because he lost from Edmure (the irony) and the Tyrells because LF's negotions.

And I think you cannot really blame Stannis' military abilities that he lost.

 

 

Read above. The only time they talked about independence was after the Crown murdered their liege, insulting them. They are ok. with bending the knee and obeying a fair King. They did with Aegon, they did when Ned supported Robert as King. If Jon, Sansa, Rickon, Arya or whoever Stark they get bends the knee for Stannis, they would be ok.

 

I think the Northmen actually never cared about the fact they were part of the 7K. It is not actually they were bothered much, except for the few times they needed to aid the Throne. And as a result of the IT, they didn't need to fight the Arryns or somebody else from Westeros attacking there lands. 

But they are actually, I think, not a real fan of the IT. Which Northmen actually went to Winterfell, when the Robert came to Winterfell? I think it has been hundreds of years since the last King went there. The Wall has been declining since the 7 K were united. 

 

But during the last twenty years, the Iron Throne is however responsible for the death of 4 Starks (and 5 if you count Lyanna and 6 if you count Cat). If they actually find the Lannisters responsible for the RW, the IT will not only responsible for the death of their liege lords but also for the death of a large number of family members. So will they really be very willingly to bow again for the IT, an institution responsible for the death of so many Northmen. They will maybe do it to avoid war, but I think the Northmen are not going to think it is the best thing that could have happened 

 

(I must admit I actually want the North to be independent, so I am little biased.)

 

However I don't think they will stab Stannis in his back, except if they found out about the leeches  ;). 

[Barty]

Read above. The only time they talked about independence was after the Crown murdered their liege, insulting them. They are ok. with bending the knee and obeying a fair King. They did with Aegon, they did when Ned supported Robert as King. If Jon, Sansa, Rickon, Arya or whoever Stark they get bends the knee for Stannis, they would be ok.

Robett Glover broke in to add, “Your loyalty does you honor, my lord, but Stannis Baratheon remains your king, not our own.”

 

The mountain clans know Bran is alive. They dont tell Stannis and they still put up the charade of calling Theon a kinslayer. Wyman made a promise to Davos yet it seems more and more clear that Wyman is on a suicide mission. There is no way that Mors Umber who recognizes Theon in his tortured state and know Winterfell so well that he even remembers the names of Ned Stark's servants does not know that Jeyne is not Arya. Mormont ladies are missing. Why is only Alysanne with Stannis? Where is Maege? Alysane's sisters went to join her - so Alysane knows where she is. She doesnt tell Stannis. Bear Island's letter to Stannis is a clue. A maester is needed to send a letter. Why is a maester taking orders from a 7 year old Lyanna Mormont when Alysane is still at Bear Island. Where is Robett Glover? Where is Robb's will?? Why are the clan chiefs still at the wall after Alys Karstark's wedding?? Why did they bring wetnurses for a child of a traitor and a wildling? Mors Umber was at the Dreadfort (or was it Whoresbane??) when Karstark was there. He knows Arnolf is loyal to the Boltons. No one tells Stannis. 

 

There are too many secrets being kept from Stannis for me to believe the Northmen are truly his. Of course if a Stark comes to WF and decides to bend the knee they will all do the same. But until then it seems the Northerners are true to their Old King. 

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Circumstantial evidence is better than nothing, which is what people claiming Stannis wasn't waiting for Robert to die have.

We cannot prove either of them. This is the thing we debate, not the things we use for debate.

[Stannis broatheon]

 
Circumstantial evidence is better than nothing, which is what people claiming Stannis wasn't waiting for Robert to die have.

Using your logic, how would Stannis know that he could trust Ned?
How would he know that Robert would die so soon and without an evidence of his killers?
How do you know that he was not gathering forces to make a coup?
Or waiting Cercei to leave KL, so Lannister influence would be lower?
Again your argument is rubbish and you have no evidence that Stannis was waiting Robert to die.

[Sullen]

We cannot prove either of them. This is the thing we debate, not the things we use for debate.

 

I agree that we can't prove any of it, but the evidence point pretty much all in the direction of Stannis letting his brother die.

[Stannis broatheon]

 
I agree that we can't prove any of it, but the evidence point pretty much all in the direction of Stannis letting his brother die.

Sorry you have no evidence, so your argument is not valid.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Robett Glover broke in to add, “Your loyalty does you honor, my lord, but Stannis Baratheon remains your king, not our own.”
 
The mountain clans know Bran is alive. They dont tell Stannis and they still put up the charade of calling Theon a kinslayer. Wyman made a promise to Davos yet it seems more and more clear that Wyman is on a suicide mission. There is no way that Mors Umber who recognizes Theon in his tortured state and know Winterfell so well that he even remembers the names of Ned Stark's servants does not know that Jeyne is not Arya. Mormont ladies are missing. Why is only Alysanne with Stannis? Where is Maege? Alysane's sisters went to join her - so Alysane knows where she is. She doesnt tell Stannis. Bear Island's letter to Stannis is a clue. A maester is needed to send a letter. Why is a maester taking orders from a 7 year old Lyanna Mormont when Alysane is still at Bear Island. Where is Robett Glover? Where is Robb's will?? Why are the clan chiefs still at the wall after Alys Karstark's wedding?? Why did they bring wetnurses for a child of a traitor and a wildling? Mors Umber was at the Dreadfort (or was it Whoresbane??) when Karstark was there. He knows Arnolf is loyal to the Boltons. No one tells Stannis. 
 
There are too many secrets being kept from Stannis for me to believe the Northmen are truly his. Of course if a Stark comes to WF and decides to bend the knee they will all do the same. But until then it seems the Northerners are true to their Old King.

Yes, is very easy to put quotes without the context to prove weak arguments.

There is a whole conversation happening before and after that quote.

Manderly: I have plans for justice
Davos: Stannis is just.
Glove: Yes, but he's your man, not ours.

They are talking about them having or knowing where Rickon Stark is. A Stark is the one they will follow. That doesn't mean they won't negotiate later to rejoin the Realm with Rickon as Lord instead of King, which is what Manderly says.

If anything, Manderly and Glover are not aware of Stannis offering Winterfell to a Stark: Jon. They don't know Stannis is fine with having the Starks back on ruling the North. They probably believe Stannis wants a men of his own to rule them, hence, their need to negotiate with Rickon in order to give help.

[Tijgy]

 

I judge people by their actions, and from his actions, his plan was to wait for Robert to die.

 

He can't find evidence holed up on Dragonstone, he doesn't send word to either Ned (known to dislike the Lannisters and love Robert as a brother), Renly (known to dislike and plot against the Lannisters, and a brother to Robert), or Robert (his liege, who the law said he had to warn and serve, which he didn't), and a witch shows up on Dragonstone telling him he'll be King and will save the world, which requires Robert to die.

 

I can't see how anyone can argue that Stannis wasn't waiting for Robert to die, with no one being able to find a good explanation as to why Stannis did nothing during the whole year when he thought he (and therefore his brother) was in danger.

 

Ironically, in Winterfell there is actually a witness to the fact Jaime and Cersei committed incest. Bran remembered the fact he saw them together in CoK or maybe even sooner (I don't remember exactly which chapter). And the reason why he did remembered it sooner, was because he was traumatized. 

[Sullen]

Using your logic, how would Stannis know that he could trust Ned?

 

Ned is Robert's best friend, he was raised by Jon Arryn as well, he hates the Lannisters. Suffice to say, excellent potential ally.

 

 

How would he know that Robert would die so soon and without an evidence of his killers?

 

1. He's got a witch who can see the future with him.

2. If the Lannisters know that he (Stannis) knows and can't be taken out, they need to off Robert as soon as possible to solidify Joffrey's grip on the throne before word of the incest comes out.

 

 

How do you know that he was not gathering forces to make a coup?

 

Because he only recruits Sallador Sahn after Robert is dead and doesn't have mercenaries in his employ until ACoK, after Robert is dead. Renly is able to raise his banners before Stannis, and Renly has way more of them, and does so after Robert's death.

 

If Stannis can't gather his forces in a year, then he is an incompetent.

 

 

Or waiting Cercei to leave KL, so Lannister influence would be lower?

 

Then he would have acted at the beginning of AGoT, when Cersei and Robert were out of King's Landing for most of the year.

[Stannis broatheon]

 
Ned is Robert's best friend, he was raised by Jon Arryn as well, he hates the Lannisters. Suffice to say, excellent potential ally.
 
 
 
1. He's got a witch who can see the future with him.
2. If the Lannisters know that he (Stannis) knows and can't be taken out, they need to off Robert as soon as possible to solidify Joffrey's grip on the throne before word of the incest comes out.
 
 
 
Because he only recruits Sallador Sahn after Robert is dead and doesn't have mercenaries in his employ until ACoK, after Robert is dead. Renly is able to raise his banners before Stannis, and Renly has way more of them, and does so after Robert's death.
 
If Stannis can't gather his forces in a year, then he is an incompetent.
 
 
 
Then he would have acted at the beginning of AGoT, when Cersei and Robert were out of King's Landing for most of the year.

Calling your best friend's wife and incestous bitch is not a great idea, just informing you.
Melisandre seeing Robert's death maybe possible, but again, he was gathering resources at Dragonstone all the time, and hired pirates with ships, so taking kings Landing via a coup could have been another possibility. During the middle ages, calling your banners and hiring mercenaries was not fast, and he may have to convince people,that he could afford the expenses, Stannis at aGoT was just a minor Lord withno claim and few resources.
At the begging of AGoT was too close to Jon Arryn's death, so he may feel more comfortable gathering resources and plotting in his fortress.
With out evidence my theory is as valod as yours, even if I had no evidence about the coup.

[Barty]

Yes, is very easy to put quotes without the context to prove weak arguments.

There is a whole conversation happening before and after that quote.

Manderly: I have plans for justice
Davos: Stannis is just.
Glove: Yes, but he's your man, not ours.

They are talking about them having or knowing where Rickon Stark is. A Stark is the one they will follow. That doesn't mean they won't negotiate later to rejoin the Realm with Rickon as Lord instead of King, which is what Manderly says.

If anything, Manderly and Glover are not aware of Stannis offering Winterfell to a Stark: Jon. They don't know Stannis is fine with having the Starks back on ruling the North. They probably believe Stannis wants a men of his own to rule them, hence, their need to negotiate with Rickon in order to give help.

And you ignore pretty much my entire post. My point was that the Northerners are clearly keeping things from Stannis (important things - things that can get him the entire North, things that can keep him alive) 

First of all they dont need to negotiate with Stannis. They can pretty much dictate terms. Stannis needs them a hell of a lot more than they need Stannis. Or do you think that Stannis stands a chance of taking the North with 1500 southerners in the middle of winter? Manderly is the key to the North -  He has the most men, he has the most gold and most importantly he knows it. What good does bending to Stannis do the North anyways - yes he gets rid of the Boltons and installs a Stark in WF. But after that?? He wants their sons and husbands to march down south again. What does declaring independence give the North?? They can sit back and laugh their asses off as some southerner tries to reclaim the North (If some southerner even manages to unite the south - which doesnt seem likely).

[Sullen]

Calling your best friend's wife and incestous bitch is not a great idea, just informing you.

 

Not good reasoning against Stannis telling Ned, and Ned was planning to Robert exactly that anyways.

 

 

Melisandre seeing Robert's death maybe possible, but again, he was gathering resources at Dragonstone all the time, and hired pirates with ships, so taking kings Landing via a coup could have been another possibility. During the middle ages, calling your banners and hiring mercenaries was not fast, and he may have to convince people,that he could afford the expenses, Stannis at aGoT was just a minor Lord withno claim and few resources.

 

Stannis was not a minor lord, he was a high lord. Not a lord paramount, but he still had several lords under him. And yeah, preparation takes time, but not that much, just look at how fast Renly amassed his 100k host. Also, you're overstating Dragonstone's poverty, he still has means to pay mercenaries.

 

Davos was still visiting Stannis's bannermen during ACoK's prologue too, which likely means Stannis had just begun reaching out for his personal forces.

 

 

With out evidence my theory is as valod as yours, even if I had no evidence about the coup.

 

It's not though, we know Stannis is with a witch who can see the future, and who constantly tells him he will be king, which requires Robert to die. That alone is enough to judge his inaction as treason.

[Stannis broatheon]

 
Not good reasoning against Stannis telling Ned, and Ned was planning to Robert exactly that anyways.
 
 
 
Stannis was not a minor lord, he was a high lord. Not a lord paramount, but he still had several lords under him. And yeah, preparation takes time, but not that much, just look at how fast Renly amassed his 100k host. Also, you're overstating Dragonstone's poverty, he still has means to pay mercenaries.
 
Davos was still visiting Stannis's bannermen during ACoK's prologue too, which likely means Stannis had just begun reaching out for his personal forces.
 
 
 
It's not though, we know Stannis is with a witch who can see the future, and who constantly tells him he will be king, which requires Robert to die. That alone is enough to judge his inaction as treason.

Stannis cant read Ned's PoV like you can, so he does not know that he would have his support. Renly got 100k man in theory, but most of them were bannerman, not mercenaries from Essos, big difference there. Dragonstone seems to be infertile, and only has dragonstone as a mineral. So it would not be relaible source for expensive mercs. After Robert's death he has a claim to the throne so he would have a better chance of hiring mercs.

[Truly Just Man]

 

Which battle did the Starks lose? 

A Stark lost Winterfell, if that counts for something.