R+L=J v.153

[Ser Naufragus]

OK yall are to hung up on the summer chill - its irrelevant -

How was Lyanna's death explained - to the family, Robert, the realm.

How were the KG's demise explained?

What is the cover story that somehow is supposed to not make anyone think about the bastard, the KG being dead and Lyanna's death. What did they write in the White Book about Arthur Dayne's death.

Do the Hightowers not ever wonder why Ned killed their kin?

[Consigliere]

We are all waiting for answers to those questions, and more.

[Lord Varys]

I'd not be surprised if the official story was that she died in childbirth giving birth to a stillborn child. The general rule is to hide a lie within the truth. Some elaborate story about a non-existing plague or sickness wherever Lyanna was would have raised questions. There clearly is an official story since Ned would have been forced to give Robert a full account on what had transpired, and I'm not really inclined to believe that Ned would have wanted to perpetuate any misconceptions Robert may have had about Lyanna and Rhaegar (rape story) if he had learned the truth.

 

Ned/Robert's claim:

 

One could speculate whether the Starks have a drop of Targaryen blood through one of Bloodraven's sisters if one of them ended up marrying into the main Blackwood line, who then became the ancestors of Melantha Blackwood Stark. Or both the Starks and the Arryns descend from one of the daughters of Garmund Hightower and Rhaena Targaryen.

[Ygrain]

OK yall are to hung up on the summer chill - its irrelevant -

How was Lyanna's death explained - to the family, Robert, the realm.

How were the KG's demise explained?

What is the cover story that somehow is supposed to not make anyone think about the bastard, the KG being dead and Lyanna's death. What did they write in the White Book about Arthur Dayne's death.

Do the Hightowers not ever wonder why Ned killed their kin?

It is not irrelevant, the wiki cannot state incorrect information.

[Mithras]

Ned/Robert's claim:

 

One could speculate whether the Starks have a drop of Targaryen blood through one of Bloodraven's sisters if one of them ended up marrying into the main Blackwood line, who then became the ancestors of Melantha Blackwood Stark. Or both the Starks and the Arryns descend from one of the daughters of Garmund Hightower and Rhaena Targaryen.

 

This reminds me of possible Plumm ancestry of the Lannisters, which you fiercely reject.

 

:kiss:

[Ser Naufragus]

It is not irrelevant, the wiki cannot state incorrect information.

the

I'd not be surprised if the official story was that she died in childbirth giving birth to a stillborn child. The general rule is to hide a lie within the truth. Some elaborate story about a non-existing plague or sickness wherever Lyanna was would have raised questions. There clearly is an official story since Ned would have been forced to give Robert a full account on what had transpired, and I'm not really inclined to believe that Ned would have wanted to perpetuate any misconceptions Robert may have had about Lyanna and Rhaegar (rape story) if he had learned the truth.
 
Ned/Robert's claim:
 
One could speculate whether the Starks have a drop of Targaryen blood through one of Bloodraven's sisters if one of them ended up marrying into the main Blackwood line, who then became the ancestors of Melantha Blackwood Stark. Or both the Starks and the Arryns descend from one of the daughters of Garmund Hightower and Rhaena Targaryen.

so if she died in childbirth then Rhaegar is the likely father for anyone causually following current events and makes the mysterious bastard not so mysterious.

So even if "she died" in childbirth why did Ned kill 3 of the most famous and badass KG.

I just don't see a believable cover story, yet no one in the realm seems to give these events any thought at all. If I am the Lord of Starfall, I want to know how and why my brother died.

If you are Barriston Selmy what exactly do you write in the White Book. Arthur Dayne went off with Rhaegar never to be seen again. Except his sword that was returned. Because Ned Stark killed him for some inexplicable reason but no one should hold it against Stark. But since no one was there no one really knows it was Stark.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Lord Varys,

The SSM linked earlier states that Robert's claim was better than Ned's or Jon's due to blood ties. That strongly suggests that there is no Targaryen blood in both House Stark, as well as House Arryn.

Here's the SSM in question again.
http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/1384

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

OK yall are to hung up on the summer chill - its irrelevant -

You say you think you read an incorrect statement on the wiki. The goal is to get such incorrect statements corrected.

And that is why we ask for the specific page you read the statement on.

[Ser Naufragus]

You say you think you read an incorrect statement on the wiki. The goal is to get such incorrect statements corrected.

And that is why we ask for the specific page you read the statement on.

I'm not clear where I got it, wiki, and analysis essay, a video....

Regardless, what explanation was given to Robert who would probably have wondered where the F his queen was. What do you tell Benjen. Barbie Dustin?

The entire cause of the war is Lyanna.

This is the equivalent of after the Trojan War, no one really gives two shakes what became of Helen.

[Ygrain]

The entire cause of the war is Lyanna.

This is the equivalent of after the Trojan War, no one really gives two shakes what became of Helen.

This is not entirely correct. Lyanna's disappearance led to a shitstorm but the whole war started only when Aerys demanded the heads of Ned and Robert, Jon Arryn defied him and the three started to fight to keep their heads on their shoulders.

[Lord Varys]

Rhaenys,

 

the strength of Robert's claim is discussed in the books, is it not? It was always known that Robert's claim was stronger than Jon's or Ned's. I tend to interpret this also as them having no drop of Targaryen blood but I'm not sure if this truly is the case. If Jon and Ned had no legal claim through blood they - as co-leaders of the rebels - could have a weaker claim than Robert due to the 'right of conquest' stuff. I imagine Pycelle's hope that Tywin might become King after the Sack had nothing to do with his heritage but only with his competence and the fact that he may have been able to take and hold the Iron Throne by force. But still, if they were just discussing blood claims there one would expect that there might be some form of distant kinship there.

 

If we want to assume the Arryns and Starks have to have a little bit of Targaryen blood you have to go through convoluted claims through the female, possibly going through multiple houses down the maternal line (say, Targaryen -> Penrose -> Corbray ->Arryn or something like that). I don't like that very much, just as I resent the fact that Renly's claim about Targaryen-Baratheon marriages doesn't make much sense now.

 

Mithras,

 

the difference there is that there is textual evidence that the Arryns and Starks may have Targaryen blood for the claim discussion to make sense. But the text gives us no reason at all to assume the Lannisters have any drop of legitimate Targaryen blood.

[SFDanny]

SFDanny,

 

I really don't by this 'independence pact'. Why would any great lord be content with a small crown if he could have the big one? Not to mention that there were people not in this pact, most notably Tywin, Mace, and Doran. If they then remained a united kingdom they could easily subdue the others as soon as the secessionists no longer formed a united bloc, right? And to remain such a bloc they would fare better if they remained united - not to mention that no great lord had any claim to the Crownlands or the KL/the Iron Throne so what would the secessionists do with them. Treat it like Berlin after the World War II?

 

LV, 

 

I know we don't agree on this, and one of these days - if they ever do the transition to update to the new boards and all of this won't be lost - I will post a thread on the topic which I hope you will help with your critiques of my theory. I will add this partial response, and go no further in the derailing of the thread: Tywin was on board with the Stark, Tully, Arryn, and Baratheon alliance, So much so he was on the point of negotiating a dowry with Hoster before Aerys destroyed it by placing Jaime in the Kingsguard. The Redwynes and the Tullys had an understanding that Brynden and Lady Bethany were to be married. Who do you think Ned and Cersei would soon be betrothed to? Each other perhaps? Who would marry Elbert Arryn? Or Edmure Tully? Or Benjen Stark? The web of marriage alliances was bringing all the great houses, excepting the Martells, into opposition to Targaryen rule. What do they have to offer all of them? A new King Rickard? I don't think so. We know it wasn't a new King Robert because that wasn't settled upon until around the time of the Trident. Do they put Tywin on the throne? No, that wasn't the plan because then Tywin would have been aboard much earlier than he was. The only thing they can really give them all would be independence. 

[Consigliere]

I know we don't agree on this, and one of these days - if they ever do the transition to update to the new boards and all of this won't be lost - I will post a thread on the topic which I hope you will help with your critiques of my theory.

FYI, posts will not be lost per last update from Ran:

 

Just a quick update: as we're not going to be able to try to upgrade until later in August, all posts between now and that point in time will be included in the upgrade database -- we'll take a fresh backup of the forum as it stands then, and use that to perform the upgrade on on a separate server.

When we do that backup, there will be a roughly one week period in which posts here will not carry over to the new server, but we'll announce when that happens.

TL;DR: Don't worry, all posts up to now and into mid-August will not disappear when we upgrade.

[Mithras]

Mithras,

 

the difference there is that there is textual evidence that the Arryns and Starks may have Targaryen blood for the claim discussion to make sense. But the text gives us no reason at all to assume the Lannisters have any drop of legitimate Targaryen blood.

 

There is this fact that Tywin realistically considered Cersei as an acceptable match for Rhaegar. It might be because they had a drop of Targ blood through the Plumms. So, the text gives us reason to assume that Lannisters might have Targaryen blood.

[Alia of the knife]

LV,

If I read your post correctly, are you speculating that perhaps Ned did tell Robert there had been a child but it died?

Never thought of that, but it does make sense in terms of a society that fully expected the bride to get with child on the wedding night.
Perhaps they were more prepared to believe there had been a child that died than no child at all.

It would Also make Rhaegar directly responsible for Lyannas death in Roberts mind.

[Lord Varys]

Mithras,

 

come on, don't annoy people with stuff like that - Ceryse and Alicent Hightower, Mariah Martell, Celia Tully, and Olenna Redwyne were perfectly fine brides for Targaryen princes and kings - without so much as a single drop of Targaryen blood.

 

Alia,

 

yes, that would be my guess. If I wanted to pull off the Jon Snow thing I'd stick to the truth as much as I could and insert only lies when necessary. The easiest way would be to have Lyanna die in the aftermath of a miscarriage rather than a stillbirth but both should work fine. Ned would say that he arrived only at the tower after the knights had already cremated the remains of Rhaegar's dead daughter (which would be why Ned could not take her remains back to Winterfell) - to change the gender should also get people help to get people off track.

 

But the more crucial thing would be to obfuscate Jon Snow's age as much as possible by making him much younger than he actually is - and perhaps 'Rhaegar's daughter' much older by setting the conception date farther into the past than it actually was - say, around the time of her abduction. Lyanna could easily have died a slow death in the aftermath of the miscarriage/stillbirth. That way, people who may have been on the right track may have changed their minds once they realized that the math didn't add up.

 

Another part of keeping things secret would be to keep Jon out of anyone's sight as good as possible. Have him to go directly to Winterfell without being presented to any of Ned's friends or family. Considering that they would have gone to Starfall one wonders whether Wylla caught a ship there and traveled to Winterfell either by way of the Sunset or the Narrow Sea. Had Ned Stark's bastard crossed all of Westeros on the Kingsroad this might have caught the attention of the wrong people.

 

Ned would have had a story about Wylla and his bastard in the ready, though. Where he met her, how her fell for her, how she looked, etc. Even if the average guy or friend would never ask him about his bastard because he was a great lord, the best friend of the king, and the whole thing no topic for a polite conversation, he'd have to be prepared should Robert ever confront him or ask him about that. The tricky thing about that is that it would be rather difficult to include such an episode during the time of the war during which Ned and Robert were together (i.e. up until Gulltown and then again after the Battle of the Bells). The fisherman's daughter story works fine there, but I imagine Ned could not possibly insert such a short-lived affair during his time in the North (which he most likely spent at the side of his friends and lords - people Robert knew, too).

 

Thus only his time in the South remains, although that causes additional problems since it makes Ned an adulterer. But for some reason he chose to take that road.

 

SFDanny,

 

well, my may criticism with that theory simply is that I can't see how a great lord would want to profit from such an endeavor. Certainly not Tywin or Steffon/Robert Baratheon who were Aerys' friends and kin, and also not Rickard Stark - whose 'Southron ambitions' in my opinion have a much better chance to be about influence with the Crown rather than topple it. What we know about Tywin also suggests that he wasn't exactly a favorite among his peers, having become overly proud and haughty due to his long tenure as Hand. Would anyone trust him with any plot against the king? Not to mention that under Aerys/Tywin everything was going fine. The reforms of Aegon V were dead, the Blackfyres were destroyed, and everybody seemed to prosper. While I can see the old royal lines - the Arryns, the Starks, and the Lannisters - preserve a little dream of independence and kingship in their minds, the Tullys and Baratheons don't play in the same league. There male forebears never ruled as kings over their ancient kingdoms for centuries in (presumably) unbroken male lines. And the Tyrells are clearly upstarts.

 

I really see the 'Rebel Alliance' as an outgrowth Aerys' madness, and Robert's charisma. Rickard Stark tried to make some powerful friends, but there was no secret motive to that - at least none in Rickard's mind. I cannot rule out the Walys Flowers had some plan, but unless the Citadel was also urging Hoster to accept the match/helping the Jaime-Lysa match along I really don't anything fishy going on there. And the fostering friendship was utter coincidence. Had Jon had children of his own, there wouldn't have been such a strong bond between these three, nor would that have happened if Robert hadn't been such a charismatic guy. Ned and he virtually have nothing in common yet they still became great friends. That is really an achievement, and nobody could have foreseen that.

[The Tragedy at Summerhall]

 
As to why GRRM drew it up that way, that's a question for him to answer. Imo, either scenario can make sense. Assuming Robert did in fact wait until just after the Trident to declare himself king, or at least his intent to take the throne, I'd say that had to do with killing Rhaegar. Once he was gone, the Targaryens were a lost cause. Aerys had to go, and Viserys and Aegon were too young to be kings in such an unstable time. Also, I wouldn't say that Robert's public declaration just after the Trident is necessarily mutually exclusive from earlier behind the scenes discussions about putting Robert on the throne. Hoster Tully and Jon Arryn could have well known that was the endgame, maybe Robert too, without making it public knowledge.

Do you think putting Robert on the throne was a cohesive plan set in stone? Because when Jaime kills Aerys, he's approached and asked who the next king should be...and Maester Pycelle seems to have been hoping for Tywin when he convinced Aerys to open the gates.

[J. Stargaryen]

Do you think putting Robert on the throne was a cohesive plan set in stone? Because when Jaime kills Aerys, he's approached and asked who the next king should be...and Maester Pycelle seems to have been hoping for Tywin when he convinced Aerys to open the gates.

 

Honestly, I'm just not sure. I could see it working either way. There is a line of thought that the idea of placing Robert on the IT predates the rebellion, and was dreamed up by the soutron ambitions alliance of the Starks, Baratheons, Arryns, and Tullys. (ETA: Or possibly some of their maesters.) I wouldn't say it's the most likely scenario by any means, but it's probably viable.

 

Btw, welcome to the forums! :cheers:

[The Tragedy at Summerhall]

Honestly, I'm just not sure. I could see it working either way. There is a line of thought that the idea of placing Robert on the IT predates the rebellion, and was dreamed up by the soutron ambitions alliance of the Starks, Baratheons, Arryns, and Tullys. (ETA: Or possibly some of their maesters.) I wouldn't say it's the most likely scenario by any means, but it's probably viable.
 
Btw, welcome to the forums! :cheers:

As in Rickard's Southron ambitions? Doesn't the Queen of Thorns talk about Rickard's ambitions to Sansa? I've heard the theory, too, but I guess Southron is relative to where you're standing, since in the Deep South they supported the Targs.

And thanks for the welcome, hoping there will be something to see here

[Alia of the knife]

Mithras,
 
come on, don't annoy people with stuff like that - Ceryse and Alicent Hightower, Mariah Martell, Celia Tully, and Olenna Redwyne were perfectly fine brides for Targaryen princes and kings - without so much as a single drop of Targaryen blood.
 
Alia,
 
yes, that would be my guess. If I wanted to pull off the Jon Snow thing I'd stick to the truth as much as I could and insert only lies when necessary. The easiest way would be to have Lyanna die in the aftermath of a miscarriage rather than a stillbirth but both should work fine. Ned would say that he arrived only at the tower after the knights had already cremated the remains of Rhaegar's dead daughter (which would be why Ned could not take her remains back to Winterfell) - to change the gender should also get people help to get people off track.
 
But the more crucial thing would be to obfuscate Jon Snow's age as much as possible by making him much younger than he actually is - and perhaps 'Rhaegar's daughter' much older by setting the conception date farther into the past than it actually was - say, around the time of her abduction. Lyanna could easily have died a slow death in the aftermath of the miscarriage/stillbirth. That way, people who may have been on the right track may have changed their minds once they realized that the math didn't add up.
 
Another part of keeping things secret would be to keep Jon out of anyone's sight as good as possible. Have him to go directly to Winterfell without being presented to any of Ned's friends or family. Considering that they would have gone to Starfall one wonders whether Wylla caught a ship there and traveled to Winterfell either by way of the Sunset or the Narrow Sea. Had Ned Stark's bastard crossed all of Westeros on the Kingsroad this might have caught the attention of the wrong people.
 
Ned would have had a story about Wylla and his bastard in the ready, though. Where he met her, how her fell for her, how she looked, etc. Even if the average guy or friend would never ask him about his bastard because he was a great lord, the best friend of the king, and the whole thing no topic for a polite conversation, he'd have to be prepared should Robert ever confront him or ask him about that. The tricky thing about that is that it would be rather difficult to include such an episode during the time of the war during which Ned and Robert were together (i.e. up until Gulltown and then again after the Battle of the Bells). The fisherman's daughter story works fine there, but I imagine Ned could not possibly insert such a short-lived affair during his time in the North (which he most likely spent at the side of his friends and lords - people Robert knew, too).
 
Thus only his time in the South remains, although that causes additional problems since it makes Ned an adulterer. But for some reason he chose to take that road.
 
SFDanny,
 
well, my may criticism with that theory simply is that I can't see how a great lord would want to profit from such an endeavor. Certainly not Tywin or Steffon/Robert Baratheon who were Aerys' friends and kin, and also not Rickard Stark - whose 'Southron ambitions' in my opinion have a much better chance to be about influence with the Crown rather than topple it. What we know about Tywin also suggests that he wasn't exactly a favorite among his peers, having become overly proud and haughty due to his long tenure as Hand. Would anyone trust him with any plot against the king? Not to mention that under Aerys/Tywin everything was going fine. The reforms of Aegon V were dead, the Blackfyres were destroyed, and everybody seemed to prosper. While I can see the old royal lines - the Arryns, the Starks, and the Lannisters - preserve a little dream of independence and kingship in their minds, the Tullys and Baratheons don't play in the same league. There male forebears never ruled as kings over their ancient kingdoms for centuries in (presumably) unbroken male lines. And the Tyrells are clearly upstarts.
 
I really see the 'Rebel Alliance' as an outgrowth Aerys' madness, and Robert's charisma. Rickard Stark tried to make some powerful friends, but there was no secret motive to that - at least none in Rickard's mind. I cannot rule out the Walys Flowers had some plan, but unless the Citadel was also urging Hoster to accept the match/helping the Jaime-Lysa match along I really don't anything fishy going on there. And the fostering friendship was utter coincidence. Had Jon had children of his own, there wouldn't have been such a strong bond between these three, nor would that have happened if Robert hadn't been such a charismatic guy. Ned and he virtually have nothing in common yet they still became great friends. That is really an achievement, and nobody could have foreseen that.

Clever too considering those Westerosi speculating on this might presume and assume that with Lyanna Stark, the Targaryen seed could be stronger and expect a silver-haired child.