DanteGabriel Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Never thought I'd say this, but I would like to have Megyn Kelly moderate one of those debates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 this is a map of Trump over performing his current polling by 2%This is a map of Clinton over performing her current polling by 2%Here is sam wang's current state of the EC based on median polling. cone graph of November probabilities based on current polling: Histogram of all possible outcomes based on current polling *** What sort of hissy fit does Trump throw if he loses, even if it's a landslide. Does he allege fraud and refuse to concede? How long can he draw it out? I cannot imagine Trump accepting reality if reality is an electoral defeat. It will be very interesting how he (and his inevitably rioting supporters) will react if he does lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 1 hour ago, Fez said: There's an argument to be made that the first debate in 2012 helped Romney a great deal. Pre-debate he was down almost as much as Trump is now in the polls, post-debate he basically pulled even and then eventually settled back to the basically the margin he ended up losing at. This could've been regression to the mean that was happening anyway, or it could be that Obama was so bad in that debate and that it was the first look a lot of people had at Romney that it dispelled misgivings for a pretty large chunk of people. Obviously it wasn't enough for him to win, but that could be chalked up to Obama correcting course and the Romney campaign not doing enough to capitalize on it. I think the best way to look at the 2012 debates is that Obama was really flat during the first debate while Romney had time to prep from the primary. Obama got drubbed in the first debate, but he made up all the lost ground and then some with the "Please proceed Governor" moment. And then in the final debate the "We don't use horses and bayonets anymore" moment place Obama firmly as the victor of the three debates. The thing that blew my mind about 2012 is I was expecting a long night and I was the DFL campaign party and the election was called like an hour after the party started. Wasn't expecting that at all. 1 hour ago, Fez said: I don't see that happening again though. Clinton's a very good debater (Obama is too; that was just an historically bad fluke performance) and Trump is Trump; his fans will love whatever he does, everyone else will hate it. This. Debates are Clinton's best strength while Trump has always been terrible in them. He just screams and insults people and barely talks about anything of substance. That didn't matter that much in the primary, but it will in the general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted June 16, 2016 Author Share Posted June 16, 2016 1 hour ago, DanteGabriel said: Never thought I'd say this, but I would like to have Megyn Kelly moderate one of those debates. This has nothing to do with politics, but as I watched the O.J.: Made in America documentary I couldn't stop noticing how Nicole Simpson looked EXACTLY like Megyn Kelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 35 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: This has nothing to do with politics, but as I watched the O.J.: Made in America documentary I couldn't stop noticing how Nicole Simpson looked EXACTLY like Megyn Kelly. “You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever.” /I know, I know. Express elevator to hell, going down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaxom 1974 Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 5 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said: “You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever.” /I know, I know. Express elevator to hell, going down. At least you didn't add a meme! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Just now, Nacho 1974 said: At least you didn't add a meme! I have serious impulse control issues. Please forgive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MerenthaClone Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 3 hours ago, Guess who's back said: Easily, just wait for the debates Please post a hypothetical electoral college map that leads to Trump winning, thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
James Arryn Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 Just now, Manhole Eunuchsbane said: I have serious impulse control issues. Please forgive me. You're good people, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 John McCain pulls an apology out of his ass for a statement that he pulled out of his ass earlier. http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/mccain-i-misspoke-obama-orlando?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link “I misspoke. I did not mean to imply that the President was personally responsible. I was referring to President Obama’s national security decisions, not the President himself. As I have said, President Obama’s decision to completely withdraw U.S. troops from Iraq in 2011 led to the rise of ISIL. I and others have long warned that the failure of the President’s policy to deny ISIL safe haven would allow the terrorist organization to inspire, plan, direct or conduct attacks on the United States and Europe as they have done in Paris, Brussels, San Bernardino and now Orlando.” /But...but this guy wasn't ISIL. There's no real connection to ISIL and the shooter. Bad Senator, no biscuit. //Oh yeah, and that 2011 pullout date was set in place by Dubya, so kindly go take a nap and shut up now please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 16, 2016 Share Posted June 16, 2016 2 hours ago, lokisnow said: this is a map of Trump over performing his current polling by 2%This is a map of Clinton over performing her current polling by 2%Here is sam wang's current state of the EC based on median polling. cone graph of November probabilities based on current polling: Histogram of all possible outcomes based on current polling *** What sort of hissy fit does Trump throw if he loses, even if it's a landslide. Does he allege fraud and refuse to concede? How long can he draw it out? I cannot imagine Trump accepting reality if reality is an electoral defeat. It will be very interesting how he (and his inevitably rioting supporters) will react if he does lose. Gawd, I can't wait to see this. It's either gonna be allegations of evil conspiracy or he's gonna jump in a hole and hide. Either will be great, he'll never be able to go outside again without a thousand reporters hounding for a shot of the fucking clown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 4 hours ago, Kalbear said: Debates also haven't been a particular game changer in elections for a while now. Probably the last big changer was Reagan/Carter. You forgot Dukakis and the Death Penalty. But, yes, it's been a long time since the debates meant anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Just now, Roose Boltons Pet Leech said: You forgot Dukakis and the Death Penalty. But, yes, it's been a long time since the debates meant anything. Was that a big changer, though? I thought the driving around in the tank was a lot more ridiculously stupid and harmful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manhole Eunuchsbane Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 2 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Was that a big changer, though? I thought the driving around in the tank was a lot more ridiculously stupid and harmful. I guess only history knows for sure, but the Willie Horton ad gets all the credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 If ever there were a better name for a president... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkynJay Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 The first Romney debate was where a bunch of us learned what a Gish Gallup was, right? I do remember many of my coworkers being pleased the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Here's the short list of VP candidates for Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 19 minutes ago, Kalbear said: Here's the short list of VP candidates for Clinton. I've been doing some research into the likely options for about a week now and I kinda dig Castro, inexperience aside, but that Texas home state disqualifies him in my mind. Too many senators on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Marquis de Leech Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 Based off that list? Perez. But, yes, too many Senators. Senate seats are like gold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lokisnow Posted June 17, 2016 Share Posted June 17, 2016 I like Perez or Garcetti, senators are too valuable to waste on the veep slot. Particularly as DWS democrats are plotting to lose ten-fifteen senate seats in 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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