Post show Battle analysis

[Jarl Halstein]

16 hours ago, bfin said:

He killed his brother. Pretty tough to stay level headed. Crappy battle commander? He had a solid plan vs a much bigger army but the story needed him to charge. Heroes don't sit back and try to win, they go get it. Have you ever watched tv or movies? This isn't the books where you can spend 59 days reading POVs from characters nobody gives a fuck about. Shit has to happen fast. In 15-20 years you guys will get the last two books and I'm sure it will be "better"

"Have you ever watched tv or movies?" Shit comment. Hey bfin, have you ever noticed that this thread is called Post show Battle analysis? That means people get to analyze.

"He had a solid plan" Too bad he dropped it before the battle even started because brother. (Who could EVER have imagined the enemy would kill the captured brother who they wanted dead? Best ruin things for your whole army when the enemy does that. It's not like you brought them all there and they trusted you when they went along.)

[Jarl Halstein]

18 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

It took riping off Tolkien to get him out of the jam he had created.

Yeah, because never in history has there been more than one army fighting an enemy army in battle. Gotta be a Tolkien rip-off.

Though someone who calls himself a "proud" left-wing extremist in his description AND his tag for good effect, and who seems to live in this forum, probably doesn't know much about history. So references for you mean Tolkien and the glorious success in Venezuela I guess.

[bfin]

15 minutes ago, Jarl Halstein said:

"Have you ever watched tv or movies?" Shit comment. Hey bfin, have you ever noticed that this thread is called Post show Battle analysis? That means people get to analyze.

"He had a solid plan" Too bad he dropped it before the battle even started because brother. (Who could EVER have imagined the enemy would kill the captured brother who they wanted dead? Best ruin things for your whole army when the enemy does that. It's not like you brought them all there and they trusted you when they went along.)

It was a fantasy tv drama battle for fucks sake. It wasn't the Revolutionary War. Jesus bro. What needs to be broken down?  

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

58 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

So what choice did he have???  Ramsey was not gonna mount a full on attack at Jon.  Jon led from the front which got Ramsey to play his hand and send in his cavalry and infantry. If Jon didn't charge in, Ramsey would have stayed put. His men were gonna get killed one way or another.  It was actually unrealistic for them to allow the shield wall to surround them. But I guess they had to "allow" that for dramatic purposes.  Now if Jon had the Vale forces in reserve to attack Ramsey's rear and flanks after he sent in his cavalry, he wouldn't have lost as many men vs the shield wall.  Sansa left Jon in a fucked up position by withholding information and an army. 

Actually, had Jon attempted to flee back to his lines he might have drawn Ramsey in.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

12 minutes ago, Jarl Halstein said:

Yeah, because never in history has there been more than one army fighting an enemy army in battle. Gotta be a Tolkien rip-off.

Though someone who calls himself a "proud" left-wing extremist in his description AND his tag for good effect, and who seems to live in this forum, probably doesn't know much about history. So references for you mean Tolkien and the glorious success in Venezuela I guess.

Hahahahahahabahahahhahabahahaha

ahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahah

hahahaahahahahabhahahabahhahahahha

:gasp:

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhaha

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahahaha

You've got me.  I'm "Mr. Proud Left Wing Extremist".  I loved Hugo Chavez just loved him.  

[JGP]

I commented on it in another thread, and I know it's kind of coming from a historical [RL] and book-purist point of view, but I'd be lying if I said that Ramsay's adoption of arms and techniques from the Old World didn't bother me a bit. There's no precedent that I'm aware of, of Westerosi using long-shields and sarissa type weapons. Maybe Dorne, back in the day. Maybe.

Anyway, my first thought was, Ramsay hired some fighting group from across the Narrow Sea similar to the Unsullied, but immediately dismissed it. Which left me with what, Ramsay couldn't have had even one of his conversations with the Karstarks or whoever around the forge where his smiths could be shown to be crafting shields quite different to northern type? Or sarissas? No drilling at all, when ancient and medieval warfare are so different?

Then of course I saw DnDs' bit on Cannae and it all made sense. That it didn't make sense, I mean. Just cribbed whatever they wanted form the classical world, and didn't even try to shoehorn it in at best. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

4 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

I commented on it in another thread, and I know it's kind of coming from a historical [RL] and book-purist point of view, but I'd be lying if I said that Ramsay's adoption of arms and techniques from the Old World didn't bother me a bit. There's no precedent that I'm aware of, of Westerosi using long-shields and sarissa type weapons. Maybe Dorne, back in the day. Maybe.

Anyway, my first thought was, Ramsay hired some fighting group from across the Narrow Sea similar to the Unsullied, but immediately dismissed it. Which left me with what, Ramsay couldn't have had even one of his conversations around the forge where his smiths were crafting shields quite different to northern type, or sarissas, no drilling at all?

Then of course I saw DnDs' bit on Cannae and it all made sense. That it didn't make sense, I mean. Just cribbed whatever they wanted form the classical world, and didn't even try to shoehorn it in at best. 

Those were the lenght of spears used in the Macedonian phalanx, weren't they?

[JGP]

Yeah. Pretty much analogous to those depicted in Ep9.

[Smoke317]

22 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Actually, had Jon attempted to flee back to his lines he might have drawn Ramsey in.

You just said Jon was dumb. And thus Ramsey is smarter right?  Why would he do that?  He had all of the advantages. He wasn't going to give them up. Jon had to draw him out which is exactly what he did. He made Ramsey waste his cavalry.  The whole battle was devised to make Sansa appear as wise and some sort of heroine. I see her as neither. All she's done this season is lessen the growth of Jon's character.  They should have kept her in the Vale and followed the books. Jon, Umbers, Manderlys, Mormonts and the rest of the North vs Boltons, Karstarks, and Freys.  With the Manderly's switching sides during the battle. This would have been much better than trying to make Sansa something that she's not. 

[chasing the dragons]

19 hours ago, StuSeaworth said:

Why wouldn't ramsay just shoot Jon if he can hit Rickon through the heart at that distance. 

I kept telling Rickon to hide behind one of the burning flayed men until jon arrived. He didn't hear me though.

 

[princess_snow]

6 hours ago, TickTak7 said:

You watch a show that has dragons, vagina monsters, vision trees, time travel, and magic, and you want to moan about realism? 

Haha .... vagina monsters too funny. Yeah I am sick of the complaints about teleporting and time travel on a tv show that only has ten eps per season.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

You just said Jon was dumb. And thus Ramsey is smarter right?  Why would he do that?  He had all of the advantages. He wasn't going to give them up. Jon had to draw him out which is exactly what he did. He made Ramsey waste his cavalry.  The whole battle was devised to make Sansa appear as wise and some sort of heroine. I see her as neither. All she's done this season is lessen the growth of Jon's character.  They should have kept her in the Vale and followed the books. Jon, Umbers, Manderlys, Mormonts and the rest of the North vs Boltons, Karstarks, and Freys.  With the Manderly's switching sides during the battle. This would have been much better than trying to make Sansa something that she's not. 

I'm saying Jon's choices were poor.  He, quite understandably allowed himself to be played.  Much would depend upon what Ramsey wanted.  If he wanted to destroy the smaller force he'd have followed.  If he just wanted a chance to tempt Jon into a trap he may have retired with his forces unbloodied to Winterfell.  I don't know.  But if his goal was to kill Jon he'd have to come after him... that or use his magic bow.

[JGP]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I'm saying Jon's choices were poor.  He, quite understandably allowed himself to be played.  Much would depend upon what Ramsey wanted.  If he wanted to destroy the smaller force he'd have followed.  If he just wanted a chance to tempt Jon into a trap he may have retired with his forces unbloodied to Winterfell.  I don't know.  But if his goal was to kill Jon he'd have to come after him... that or use his magic bow.

Maybe Ramsay was aiming at Jon when he shot Wun Wun in the eye?

[grufolo]

They, Sansa, Jon, Ramsey, all played into littlefinger's hands.

He sent the pink letter (see the relative thread in previous posts in the thread of the episode when the letter is delivered). He talked Sansa into asking his help, she bit into the trap and now he's the only force to be reckoned with in the Vale AND the North.

He is the best at playing humans, the WW will be his undoing, not Sansa

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 minutes ago, grufolo said:

They, Sansa, Jon, Ramsey, all played into littlefinger's hands.

He sent the pink letter (see the relative thread in previous posts in the thread of the episode when the letter is delivered). He talked Sansa into asking his help, she bit into the trap and now he's the only force to be reckoned with in the Vale AND the North.

He is the best at playing humans, the WW will be his undoing, not Sansa

That... I can believe.  My first question last night was "what does Littlefinger want for the use of those troops?"

[grufolo]

Just now, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

That... I can believe.  My first question last night was "what does Littlefinger want for the use of those troops?"

I think littlefinger 's undoing will simply be that he believes the North border to be safe.... i mean, the wall, who could ever breach that?

[Smoke317]

9 minutes ago, grufolo said:

I think littlefinger 's undoing will simply be that he believes the North border to be safe.... i mean, the wall, who could ever breach that?

Littlefinger's undoing is that he fucked up and set foot in the North, the land of his "true" enemies.  He had Lysa write the letter that started the Stark destruction.  He betrayed Ned and the Hound who's heading North knows it.  Arya was in the room at Harrenhal when he conspired with Tywin. She's heading North too.  Only Sansa the fool relies on LF.  He should have kept his shady ass in the South. The North remembers and Winter is Coming. Not even the Vale will be able to save him now...  Sansa better wise up and abandon the LF ship while she can.  I'll be surprised if he ever leaves the North alive. 

[grufolo]

2 minutes ago, Smoke317 said:

Littlefinger's undoing is that he fucked up and set foot in the North, the land of his "true" enemies.  He had Lysa write the letter that started the Stark destruction.  He betrayed Ned and the Hound who's heading North knows it.  Arya was in the room at Harrenhal when he conspired with Tywin. She's heading North too.  Only Sansa the fool relies on LF.  He should have kept his shady ass in the South. The North remembers and Winter is Coming. Not even the Vale will be able to save him now...  Sansa better wise up and abandon the LF ship while she can.  I'll be surprised if he ever leaves the North alive. 

Arya, Sandor, they're a small bunch.

He's got a few thousand knights. that's still the only force to be reckoned with the North.

[TwiceBorn]

Analysis:

The eve of battle:

Since the Starks have failed to rally the North, neither of participants had a good reason for an immediate battle. The Boltons could have stayed in Winterfell waiting for the Starks to die out of hunger and cold. Starks on the other hand would risk less by using underdog tactics like guerilla warfare. The reason for battle was of personal nature: Ramsey Bolton needed to satisfy his sadistic urge to immediately crush any opposition. Jon Snow was desperate to retake Winterfell and even more to die again.

The battlegrounds:

The Stark forces fortified the low grounds on the edge of the woods. The Boltons had the high grounds with the keep to their backs.

The battle plan:

Jon hoped to lure Ramsey into charging downhill straight into his weak and thin formation. The idea was to trap his forces between the fortified flanks and hope for the best. Ramsey hoped to lure Jon into attacking head on and uphill, then to slaughter his charging forces with arrow volleys, then to surround him using superior numbers and utterly destroy the opponents.

The battle:

At the very beginning of the battle the Stark forces lost their hot-headed general who charged alone against whole Bolton army and was cut off by arrow fire. His second Davos assumed the command and even though he realized the consequence of his actions, ordered the full frontal assault. Thus he repeated the error of Jon Snow and committed to Ramsey's victory. Soon the Stark cavalry got separated and cut off from the infantry by arrow fire and thus failed to retrieve Jon Snow. The incoming relief force of infantry led by Tormund came too late: neither breakthrough nor flight was possible.

At this point the Braveheart rip-off turned into Cold Mountain rip-off:

Only that there was no crater. At this point Davos committed the last of his men and led them personally to mêlée. Fully knowing there is no longer threat from the archers Ramsey completed the execution of his plan by double encirclement of Starks forces. Unfortunately for him the Vale knights appeared and destroyed his army in a surprise attack.

The outcome:

Nearly complete annihilation of both Stark and Bolton forces, near or total extinction of most northern houses and a Pyrrhic victory for Jon Snow. Considering the excruciating life loss during the War of Five Kings the North is no longer capable of defending itself from any threat and has effectively lost its independence to the Littlefinger.

[Smoke317]

7 minutes ago, grufolo said:

Arya, Sandor, they're a small bunch.

He's got a few thousand knights. that's still the only force to be reckoned with the North.

The Manderly's will show up next episode. They'll pledge loyalty to Jon.  The North is far from done. LF, Sansa, and the Vale will never lead the North. Plus Royce is looking for a reason to off LF...  If he remains in the North, his days are numbered.