Balon's plan was truly stupid without Theon

[Floki of the Ironborn]

We're supposed to believe that Balon isn't the smartest man in Westeros, but the more I think of it the more I realize that he's truly crazy if he thinks his strategy to conquer the North will work. He seized Moat Cailin to prevent Robb from returning north, but that doesn't stop Bran from rallying the North against his forces. He had no intention of taking Winterfell or even Torrhen's Square. All he did was plan to take Moat Cailin and Deepwood Motte, as though that would be sufficient. Even without Robb and his army, the North had enough troops to drive Balon out.

Theon's decision to take Winterfell is regarded as dumb and unlike the Ironborn way, but it saves the Ironborn from instant defeat. Bran and Rickon being alive and safe ensured that Ramsay is unable to conquer Winterfell or really do anything after his capture by Rodrik Cassel. And it would also ensure that the North would rally and drive the Ironborn back into the sea.

[Canon Claude]

Balon and Ramsay's storylines both depended on Theon taking Winterfell.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

2 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

We're supposed to believe that Balon isn't the smartest man in Westeros, but the more I think of it the more I realize that he's truly crazy if he thinks his strategy to conquer the North will work. He seized Moat Cailin to prevent Robb from returning north, but that doesn't stop Bran from rallying the North against his forces.

What forces?

Lord Balon rode over him. "The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys."

We really have not seen much evidence from the books that he was wrong on this. The fact that Deepwood Motte was only won back by Stannis and Moat Cailin only because Theon convinced the (severely depleted) Ironborn to abandon it.

The Ironborn land in ACOK, it is not till ADWD, after Euron has long set his sights on the Reach, that the Ironborn begin to lose their holdings.

[The Golden Wolf]

While robb went south with the cream of the crop of the North's might he only took 18k, if that. There are conservatively another 10k, more or less, that could have been called to fight the Ironborn. With Ramsey locked away they could possibly rely on the Bolton men especially since Theon would not be a traitor in this scenario.

 

 

[James Steller]

1 hour ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

What forces?

Lord Balon rode over him. "The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys."

We really have not seen much evidence from the books that he was wrong on this. The fact that Deepwood Motte was only won back by Stannis and Moat Cailin only because Theon convinced the (severely depleted) Ironborn to abandon it.

The Ironborn land in ACOK, it is not till ADWD, after Euron has long set his sights on the Reach, that the Ironborn begin to lose their holdings.

The Flints, Lockes, Cerwyns, Umbers, Karstarks, Reeds, Tallharts, Manderlys, Dustins, Ryswells were all available to provide lordly leadership, and they all had forces under their control. The Dustins and Ryswells had most of their forces still in the North, Rodrik Cassel could raise 2000 men from the Winterfell/Torrhen's Square/Cerwyn area. The Karstarks, Umbers, and Manderlys all had forces of their own left behind, and there's the 600 Boltons who would have been leaderless with the imprisonment of Ramsay.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

12 minutes ago, James Steller said:

The Flints, Lockes, Cerwyns, Umbers, Karstarks, Reeds, Tallharts, Manderlys, Dustins, Ryswells were all available to provide lordly leadership, and they all had forces under their control. The Dustins and Ryswells had most of their forces still in the North, Rodrik Cassel could raise 2000 men from the Winterfell/Torrhen's Square/Cerwyn area. The Karstarks, Umbers, and Manderlys all had forces of their own left behind, and there's the 600 Boltons who would have been leaderless with the imprisonment of Ramsay.

There is no real evidence that the 2k Rodrik raised were anything more than green boys and old men like Balon mentioned. The fact that they were so easily beaten by Ramsay shows they lacked training that the solidiers who left with Robb would have had.

The Houses and leadership you mention did nothing to stop the Ironborb while Robb and his army was away, nor did they do anything to help the Wall in their desperation. Balon's theory was proven correct in the books.

[Duranaparthur]

Baelon's plan makes no sense if his strategic objective is to conquer the entirety of the North, but becomes far more reasonable of his plan so to merely carve out a smaller new fiefdom under the Seastone chair on Greenlander's territory... provided he chooses an appropriate place to garrison and is smart enough to play some politics in the area. The Ironborn have a tiny amount of resources and a much smaller population than the North, and the North is by far the largest landmass while also being victimized by the winters more than any other kingdom. An Ironborn invasion deep into the heart of the North is going to eventually overreach itself, much like what happened to Theon, and the speed with which they are ousted by the returning remnant of North under an untrusted new Great House exposes their overall weak positions. And of course, even if they take significant gains in the north, "Winter is coming," and will inevitably weaken their hold as much as the Northmen, if not more so, since they lack the ancient feudal infrastructure designed to survive the cold and hungry months.

There's a reason why even the most powerful Ironborn Kings tended to attack below the Neck; any territory seized there, particularly in the Riverlands, is basically a two point swing for resources, and in an area where you can make deals or threats towards some of your neighbors because they are not united under a single banner; you can have a beachhead in the Riverlands by not provoking the Westerlands until you've consolidated your strength, but any move on the North is going to leave you surrounded by Northmen.

Theon was thinking stupid, but he was trying to impress a father with very ill defined strategic goals. He made a stupid decision already likely to fall apart at some point accelerate through his actions.

 

[Abdallah]

2 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

There is no real evidence that the 2k Rodrik raised were anything more than green boys and old men like Balon mentioned. The fact that they were so easily beaten by Ramsay shows they lacked training that the solidiers who left with Robb would have had.

The Houses and leadership you mention did nothing to stop the Ironborb while Robb and his army was away, nor did they do anything to help the Wall in their desperation. Balon's theory was proven correct in the books.

Green Boys can still be trained. I have to agree with James. Let's say Ramsay wasn't a psychopath and was loyal, none of that Hornwood incident. Besides Rodrick's 2000 men (who can be trained)

2500-3000 Clansmen

450 Karstarks

300 heavy cav from House Manderly

600 Boltons

400 Umbers

Thousands of Ryswells and Dustins. 

Had Rodrik not been killed he could have rallied them. Asha might of been captured in a counterattack. They could have besieged Moat Cailin from the North while the Stark forces in the riverlands besiege them from the south. Eventually Victorian's army would starve (as large armies don't do well in sieges as supplies would run out. If 500 men ran out of food in a year, imagine 3/5th of the Iron Fleet would last). 

 

[Abdallah]

7 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

We're supposed to believe that Balon isn't the smartest man in Westeros, but the more I think of it the more I realize that he's truly crazy if he thinks his strategy to conquer the North will work. He seized Moat Cailin to prevent Robb from returning north, but that doesn't stop Bran from rallying the North against his forces. He had no intention of taking Winterfell or even Torrhen's Square. All he did was plan to take Moat Cailin and Deepwood Motte, as though that would be sufficient. Even without Robb and his army, the North had enough troops to drive Balon out.

Theon's decision to take Winterfell is regarded as dumb and unlike the Ironborn way, but it saves the Ironborn from instant defeat. Bran and Rickon being alive and safe ensured that Ramsay is unable to conquer Winterfell or really do anything after his capture by Rodrik Cassel. And it would also ensure that the North would rally and drive the Ironborn back into the sea.

Had Theon been given the men he would have been able to capture the North in my opinion. Think about it like this, Balon sent 3/5ths of his army to Moat Cailin and just stays there. Sure I could understand capturing it with that many men but he should have recalled most of them. All one would need is 500 men to hold it and a large amount of supplies. Had those forces then be given to Theon he probably could have defeated Rodrick, heck if he had enough men he could have ambushed Rodrick before he was able to reinforce Torrhen Square. He wouldn't need ramsay, heck he could of executed him thinking he's useless. Then he could have picked off northern castles one by one. But instead Balon wished for Theon to die so Asha could take his throne. Asha is partly to blame too as she basically kept humiliating Theon which made him stay. She did feel guilty though which is why she's always sad when she sees him now. 

[YOVMO]

5 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

What forces?

Lord Balon rode over him. "The lords are gone south with the pup. Those who remained behind are the cravens, old men, and green boys."

We really have not seen much evidence from the books that he was wrong on this. The fact that Deepwood Motte was only won back by Stannis and Moat Cailin only because Theon convinced the (severely depleted) Ironborn to abandon it.

The Ironborn land in ACOK, it is not till ADWD, after Euron has long set his sights on the Reach, that the Ironborn begin to lose their holdings.

Exactly this. Balon knew that the north was lightly held because everyone went south with Robb and no one had any reason to fear that the north would be attacked. Further, Balon took MC and DM but not to hold them. This was basically a very large reaving mission, not one of conquest. With the fighting men south there is no reason to assume he couldn't have pulled off the largest reaving the north had ever seen and suffered zero consequences despite anything Theon would have done

[GallowsKnight]

8 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

Theon's decision to take Winterfell is regarded as dumb and unlike the Ironborn way, but it saves the Ironborn from instant defeat. Bran and Rickon being alive and safe ensured that Ramsay is unable to conquer Winterfell or really do anything after his capture by Rodrik Cassel. And it would also ensure that the North would rally and drive the Ironborn back into the sea.

Taking Winterfell wasn't dumb. Well it was dumb in that it shouldn't have ever worked but having pulled off that fluke, it was staying in Winterfell that was stupid.

Had Theon taken Bran and Rickon, Meera and Jojen, Big and Little Walder and Beth Cassel back to the Iron Islands as hostages he'd have become an Ironborn legend and proved his worth in his father's eyes. With those he could blackmailed/ransomed Robb, the Freys and the Reeds to the Ironborn advantage. Beth Cassel you can send back as a sign of good faith or dead to show you're not bluffing (which would be evil to do but hey you could).

[Oakhearts head]

1 hour ago, GallowsKnight said:

Taking Winterfell wasn't dumb. Well it was dumb in that it shouldn't have ever worked but having pulled off that fluke, it was staying in Winterfell that was stupid.

Had Theon taken Bran and Rickon, Meera and Jojen, Big and Little Walder and Beth Cassel back to the Iron Islands as hostages he'd have become an Ironborn legend and proved his worth in his father's eyes. With those he could blackmailed/ransomed Robb, the Freys and the Reeds to the Ironborn advantage. Beth Cassel you can send back as a sign of good faith or dead to show you're not bluffing (which would be evil to do but hey you could).

How was taking Winterfell a fluke? It was a calculated risk that paid off.

Agreed about the hostages though.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Green Boys can still be trained. I have to agree with James. Let's say Ramsay wasn't a psychopath and was loyal, none of that Hornwood incident. Besides Rodrick's 2000 men (who can be trained)

2500-3000 Clansmen

450 Karstarks

300 heavy cav from House Manderly

600 Boltons

400 Umbers

Thousands of Ryswells and Dustins. 

Had Rodrik not been killed he could have rallied them. Asha might of been captured in a counterattack. They could have besieged Moat Cailin from the North while the Stark forces in the riverlands besiege them from the south. Eventually Victorian's army would starve (as large armies don't do well in sieges as supplies would run out. If 500 men ran out of food in a year, imagine 3/5th of the Iron Fleet would last). 

 

All correct, except the text clearly states that Manderly has more than Bolton, even with a very conservative estimate Bolton should still have 5-600, this could likely be as high as 1,000 if you assume all 500 at the Twins were Boltons and the majority of Ramsay's 600 were not just cavalry but heavy cavalry.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Green Boys can still be trained. I have to agree with James. Let's say Ramsay wasn't a psychopath and was loyal, none of that Hornwood incident. Besides Rodrick's 2000 men (who can be trained)

Sure, but from we had seen they were not and in that respect the actual books show that Balon's plan had merit.

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

2500-3000 Clansmen

A bunch of, mostly, poorly trained and poorly armed men. Stannis and the Mountain clans outnumber the fleeing Ironborn with Asha at least 20-1 yet look how many of he Clan members were killed in that fight.

And again, Balon is correct as they gave no help to Winterfell or the Wall when they were attacked, only when Stannis and his professional army arrived.

There is a real difference between being a properly armed and trained soldier and being a male old enough and willing to fight. Balon recognizes this distinction.

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

450 Karstarks

Who again seem pretty ineffective. Alys Karstark points out how depleted they are, there is no reason to think their reserves are any different to those of the Umbers.

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

300 heavy cav from House Manderly

100 "I do not claim Lord Wyman does the deeds himself. He brought three hundred men with him. A hundred knights. Any of them might have—"

Obviously I imagine he has far more at home, but clearly not enough to assault the Ironborn under Victarion

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

600 Boltons

This seems to be the anomaly, but 600 might be enough to defeat a poorly trained 2k army under Rodrik but may not stand a chance against a similar sized Ironborn army.

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

400 Umbers

Greybeards and green boys according to the book.

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Thousands of Ryswells and Dustins. 

Had Rodrik not been killed he could have rallied them.

He did rally them. There was months between Winterfell being captured and and Rodrik attacking and all he raised was a pretty poor 2k.

Rodrik even comments that he did not have to wait for Robb to return to take the pathetically numbered Ironborn at Winterfell

"You hold three castles," replied Ser Rodrik, "and this one I mean to take back, Turncloak."..."Do not imagine that I need wait for Robb to fight his way up the Neck to deal with the likes of you. I have near two thousand men with me . . . and if the tales be true, you have no more than fifty."

But the implication is that he did have to wait for Robb to return for Moat Cailin.

 

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

 

Asha might of been captured in a counterattack. They could have besieged Moat Cailin from the North while the Stark forces in the riverlands besiege them from the south.

Sure, these are possibilities, not certainties. I am not debating whether Balon's plan was 100% certain of success, no plan is, but that it was not 'truly stupid'. The books actually back Balon up on his plan.

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Eventually Victorian's army would starve (as large armies don't do well in sieges as supplies would run out. If 500 men ran out of food in a year, imagine 3/5th of the Iron Fleet would last). 

So why didnt they? Either you are smarter and more aware of the Northern capabilities than every Northern Lord in the North as well as Robb who was returning North to deal with the Ironborn (and I'm guessing the author) or Balon was correct in his assessment.

The Ironborn had supply lines from Moat Cailin to the Fever River, it is only after Balon dies and the vast majority of the army leave do the Northern attempt to cut these supply lines.

And to reiterate, Balon is not saying the North is without numbers, he is saying those numbers are not worth much as they are old, young or not meant for war (cowards). Nothing in ACOK and ASOS suggests he was wrong on this assessment. The North only rallying being successful against them come ADWD when professional armies return North kind of shows that he was right,

4 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Had Theon been given the men he would have been able to capture the North in my opinion. Think about it like this, Balon sent 3/5ths of his army to Moat Cailin and just stays there. Sure I could understand capturing it with that many men but he should have recalled most of them. All one would need is 500 men to hold it

No, he needed that army to defeat Robb completely. The rest of the North is not important at that point, defeating the military of the North was. Dividing the Ironborn under Victarion is only going to make it easier for smaller Northern armies to stand a chance against them. 

Though this point contradicts what you earlier said about the Northmen having the numbers to take Moat Cailin from the South. Balon recognizes the importance in keeping it, Winterfell and the other Northern settlements are entirely pointless if Robb and his army are able to return as they will quickly lose possession, the Ironborn's best chance is Robb dying on the causeway.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

12 hours ago, Floki of the Ironborn said:

We're supposed to believe that Balon isn't the smartest man in Westeros, but the more I think of it the more I realize that he's truly crazy if he thinks his strategy to conquer the North will work. He seized Moat Cailin to prevent Robb from returning north, but that doesn't stop Bran from rallying the North against his forces. He had no intention of taking Winterfell or even Torrhen's Square. All he did was plan to take Moat Cailin and Deepwood Motte, as though that would be sufficient. Even without Robb and his army, the North had enough troops to drive Balon out.

Theon's decision to take Winterfell is regarded as dumb and unlike the Ironborn way, but it saves the Ironborn from instant defeat. Bran and Rickon being alive and safe ensured that Ramsay is unable to conquer Winterfell or really do anything after his capture by Rodrik Cassel. And it would also ensure that the North would rally and drive the Ironborn back into the sea.

Pretty much what I've always believed.

The larger point has to be how dumb a strategic move it is, he wants a crown, which eventually guarantees him fighting ¾ of the Kings currently fighting in the mainland if they win, so his brilliant move is to attack the ¼ who has no reason to go on the offensive with him.

Attacking the North might have been a decent move, if done without a declaration of independence and whilst pledging loyalty to one of the kings, as it could have got them some land from the North, though ultimately I think the Iron Throne would have turned on them, as I can't see the IT valuing the IB over the Northern lords long term.

[GallowsKnight]

3 hours ago, Oakhearts head said:

How was taking Winterfell a fluke? It was a calculated risk that paid off.

Agreed about the hostages though.

Some one else summed it better in another thread. But basically the amount of time Theon and his men had to spend scaling multiple sets of walls without getting caught and that Rodrik would leave so few men it was possible to do so. He got really really lucky. In reality some guy would have found them, cut the rope and raised the alarm.

But my key point was the hostage thing. He really screwed the pooch there.

[Viking]

If Balon's plan absolutely has to make sense then it can. It doesn't have to since it's primary purpose is to break with the normal narrative as a silly deus ex machina to drive the plot forward rather than be the purely self motivated "Balon as his own protagonist" that George likes to strive for. 

To force Balon's plan to make sense you have to send logic out the window and stick to Iron Born reasoning. The center point of that Iron Born reasoning is that Ned Stak paid the Iron Price for the Seastone Chair, Ned Stark paid the Iron Price for Theon Greyjoy and Ned Stark paid the Iron Price for Balon Greyjoy's self esteem. 

When Balon bent the knee after the revolt he proved himself a failure as Iron Born. Compare him to Dagmer Cleftjaw who when faced with impending defeat mused on how this might be a good death. To become King again Balon not only had to gain physical independence (the easy bit) but also redeem his failure during his rebellion. He had to pay the Iron Price to take his Throne, he had to pay the Iron Price to take his son and he had to pay the Iron Price to take back his self esteem. 

What does Robb do? He gives him his son, he offers to give him his Kingdom and denies Balon the chance to take them back. Balon has to attack the Starks because Ned Stark paid the Iron Price proving himself true Iron Born while Balon bent the knee proving he wasn't true Iron Born. 

[dariopatke]

8 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

The fact that they were so easily beaten by Ramsay shows they lacked training that the solidiers who left with Robb would have had.

The fact that Jaime was easily beaten by Robb show Lannister men lacked training if you are going with that logic. It was surprise attack and commander was just killed. Some of them were certainly in their prime, however I think at least 1500 were not trained properly or too old to put ut a good fight, but do not forget that this is enough to retake WF and with help of Mountain clans, Karstarks and maybe Umbers should be enough to retake Deepwood Motte. And Moat Caillin can wait, it is better to have every castle as fortified and manned as it can be and wait for Robb.

Had Ramsay stayed loyal... or neutral at least (and yes, I can discuss this because we are talking about Balons planning, he has no idea about him) Rodrick would outnumber Asha 6 to 1 which should be enough, he will have heavy casualtis but he should be able to take her with some good tactics.

[The Drunkard]

5 hours ago, Abdallah said:

Green Boys can still be trained. I have to agree with James. Let's say Ramsay wasn't a psychopath and was loyal, none of that Hornwood incident. Besides Rodrick's 2000 men (who can be trained)

2500-3000 Clansmen

450 Karstarks

300 heavy cav from House Manderly

600 Boltons

400 Umbers

Thousands of Ryswells and Dustins. 

Had Rodrik not been killed he could have rallied them. Asha might of been captured in a counterattack. They could have besieged Moat Cailin from the North while the Stark forces in the riverlands besiege them from the south. Eventually Victorian's army would starve (as large armies don't do well in sieges as supplies would run out. If 500 men ran out of food in a year, imagine 3/5th of the Iron Fleet would last). 

Eventually this would happen, but until it does you've got Robb trapped in the south, his supply lines cut, route north blocked, and facing Tywin Lannister. He may have been hoping that Robb surrender or strike a favourable deal in order to continue the war against Tywin (whom Balon thought would definitely win).

[Abdallah]

4 hours ago, The Drunkard said:

Eventually this would happen, but until it does you've got Robb trapped in the south, his supply lines cut, route north blocked, and facing Tywin Lannister. He may have been hoping that Robb surrender or strike a favourable deal in order to continue the war against Tywin (whom Balon thought would definitely win).

U gotta plan for that u can't rely on ur enemies surrendering. Also so Robb would give up the North to fight the Lannisters? the more likely scenario is him making peace with the lannisters and regathering to take the North. Balon should have had a plan to strike in the heart of the North, to take castles like Winterfell, Cerwyn, Torrehn Square etc.