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Why Daenerys Dayne may not be a ridiculous idea.


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49 minutes ago, Sigella said:

I don't think the emphasis should lay in "army" but "midwives".

If you read "Grand Maester Pycelle and an army of midwives" and think "privacy", that's on you.

49 minutes ago, Sigella said:

So it doesn't bug you that Barristan finds Dany's eyes hauntingly like Asharas? Or the rumor of her stillborn daughter and suicide?

It smells fishy to me. Sorry for pissing you guys off by voicing it.

I've asked the question before, I'll ask it again: logistics. How, by what means, and why, did Ashara Dayne's daughter get swapped for Daenerys Targaryen. And how did they manage to keep it a secret.

Sorry if I pissed you off with that question. ;)

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1 hour ago, Sigella said:

So it doesn't bug you that Barristan finds Dany's eyes hauntingly like Asharas? Or the rumor of her stillborn daughter and suicide? 

Amen! Something is up there. There is literally no reason whatsoever to keep bringing up Ashara--unless she matters. And of all the things Barristan could have said about how much he misses the one that got away, comparing her to Dany is unnecessary. Seems like something's up.

Not to mention Quaithe--why her eyes are bright when she talks to Dany, why she actually seems to care about Dany, why her mask is made of stars, and why she keeps showing up--the idea that Ashara could be Quaithe is at least a possibility.

And if she's Dany's mother, that would be one possible explanation as to why Quaithe seems to want to help Dany, vs. getting something from her. And why she can even enter Dany's consciousness.

21 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

The point being witnesses to a birth, particularly a royal birth like Dany's is a small number of people. In addition there are all the people who had to deal with a newborn child for the period from the birth to the escape from Dragonstone. Add to this all the people who would have dealt with Rhaella as she died from complications from the birth and dealt with the funeral of a queen after here death. Lots of folks. All telling the same story.

True--and there were multiple witnesses to the birth of Dalla's baby.

And Jon still pulled off that swap. Multiple people--all telling the same story.

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24 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

I've asked the question before, I'll ask it again: logistics. How, by what means, and why, did Ashara Dayne's daughter get swapped for Daenerys Targaryen. And how did they manage to keep it a secret.

Well, this would be the realm of BIG hypotheticals, but in that vein:

If Rhaella's baby eventually died, getting Viserys on the throne might be easier if whoever took him in hand also had the potential leverage of marrying his "sister" to someone important.

And a true born sister-princess would arguably have more "value" on the marriage market than a hypothetical Targaryen bastard, fathered on Ashara Dayne.

So, replacing the dead child with a living one might be seen as maintaining the potential marriage value of Viserys' dead little sister.

Maybe. . . 

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27 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

I've asked the question before, I'll ask it again: logistics. How, by what means, and why, did Ashara Dayne's daughter get swapped for Daenerys Targaryen. And how did they manage to keep it a secret.

Not to mention we have a perfect place for Illyrio to buy such a baby for Viserys - Lys. The place is just filled with Valyrian looking people and slaves where even smallfolk look beautiful.

And Lys is not that far from Dorne.

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1 hour ago, Sigella said:

So it doesn't bug you that Barristan finds Dany's eyes hauntingly like Asharas? Or the rumor of her stillborn daughter and suicide? 

Not nearly as much as the issues with logistics and motives do.  Both Dany and Ashara have violet eyes, relatively rare but a characteristic of both of their families.  That fact is probably why he notices it.  And he was clearly obsessed with Ashara.  

I have always assumed the child was the product of either Brandon or Ned.  Either the stillbirth happened or, if the child lived, it is most likely Allyria Dayne, Edric's aunt and Beric Dondarrion's betrothed.  

18 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Amen! Something is up there. There is literally no reason whatsoever to keep bringing up Ashara--unless she matters. And of all the things Barristan could have said about how much he misses the one that got away, comparing her to Dany is unnecessary. Seems like something's up.

I am firmly of the belief that Ashara matters.  I believe that she was involved with the Tower of Joy, and may have been Ned's source as to Lyanna's location.  She may also have had an affair with either Brandon or Ned.  I also believe she is still alive, probably as either Septa Lemore or Quaithe (her suicide is extremely suspicious).  But that doesn't mean she is Dany's mother.

21 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Not to mention Quaithe--why her eyes are bright when she talks to Dany, why she actually seems to care about Dany, why her mask is made of stars, and why she keeps showing up--the idea that Ashara could be Quaithe is at least a possibility.

And if she's Dany's mother, that would be one possible explanation as to why Quaithe seems to want to help Dany, vs. getting something from her. And why she can even enter Dany's consciousness.

Given that, iirc, the Daynes were big Targ loyalists, I would expect Ashara to have an interest in the last remaining trueborn Targaryen.

 

23 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

True--and there were multiple witnesses to the birth of Dalla's baby.

And Jon still pulled off that swap. Multiple people--all telling the same story.

And anyone who is familiar with Dalla's baby is going to know the difference.  The purpose of the swap was to get Dalla's baby away from Mel for long enough that she couldn't do anything about it, not to keep it a secret forever.  In fact, keeping it a secret permanently would defeat the purpose, which was to save the lives of both babies.

24 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Well, this would be the realm of BIG hypotheticals, but in that vein:

If Rhaella's baby eventually died, getting Viserys on the throne might be easier if whoever took him in hand also had the potential leverage of marrying his "sister" to someone important.

And a true born sister-princess would arguably have more "value" on the marriage market than a hypothetical Targaryen bastard, fathered on Ashara Dayne.

So, replacing the dead child with a living one might be seen as maintaining the potential marriage value of Viserys' dead little sister.

Maybe. . . 

That's an awful lot of trouble to go to for a very speculative and relatively minimal return.  The fact is that at any time that a switch would be reasonable Daenerys is much more of a millstone for Viserys and Lord Darry than she is an asset.

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40 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Something is up there. There is literally no reason whatsoever to keep bringing up Ashara--unless she matters.

Not true. It could also mean that Barristan has started to have other kind of feelings for Dany.

40 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

And Jon still pulled off that swap.

Yet Jon hasn't fooled Mel who is the one who matters in the end.

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4 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Yet Jon hasn't fooled Mel who is the one who matters in the end.

Actually, Jon wants Mel to find out it's Gilly's baby.  Just not until it's too late to do anything about it.  That way, neither baby gets burned.

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re: Ashara's eyes and Dany's: we know from other sources that Ashara Dayne was once one of the greatest beauties of Westeros (and his crush), and many, many sources attest that Daenerys is a beautiful woman. Barristan's thoughts might be a way for George to show us that this isn't like Joffrey's martial skills - exaggerated because who can be honest about the King - and that Dany really is a remarkably attractive. This might tie Dany back into Maggy's prophecy about the younger, more beautiful queen.

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41 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I am firmly of the belief that Ashara matters.

Agreed.

41 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I believe that she was involved with the Tower of Joy, and may have been Ned's source as to Lyanna's location.

Or at Lyanna's location. And, given how the Knight of the Laughing Tree story takes the time to tell us that she danced with some key figures--sounds like Ashara may have been in the thick of things with Arthur and Rhaegar.

41 minutes ago, Nevets said:

She may also have had an affair with either Brandon or Ned.

Maybe. But she's mentioned directly in every book but one, and her suicide-by-tower is brought up multiple times. The only book she's not mentioned by name in has this:

Quote

He is a man of the Night's Watch, she thought, as he sang about some stupid lady throwing herself off some stupid tower because her stupid prince was dead. The lady should go kill the ones who killed her prince. And the singer should be on the Wall. Feast, Cat of the Canals

The idea that Ashara might have been the source of Rhaegar's third dragon head has been brought up multiple times. Makes sense of all the Rhaegar stuff around Dany--while Jon is Targ-Symbolism free. So, maybe she had an affair with Ned of Brandon--or maybe she had Rhaegar's child--and Ned's protecting both kids.

41 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I also believe she is still alive, probably as either Septa Lemore or Quaithe (her suicide is extremely suspicious).  But that doesn't mean she is Dany's mother.

Agreed--but Quaithe's interest in Dany--so far, it's unexplained. Especially the visions. Something big is up there.

46 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Given that, iirc, the Daynes were big Targ loyalists, I would expect Ashara to have an interest in the last remaining trueborn Targaryen.

A fair point. Still, her being in Dany's mind seems a bit much.

47 minutes ago, Nevets said:

And anyone who is familiar with Dalla's baby is going to know the difference.  The purpose of the swap was to get Dalla's baby away from Mel for long enough that she couldn't do anything about it, not to keep it a secret forever.  In fact, keeping it a secret permanently would defeat the purpose, which was to save the lives of both babies.

Agreed--and I could easily see that hiding Dany in place of a hypothetically dead baby wasn't meant to be permanent, either. After all, Quaithe keeps telling her to remember who she is. And Dany's big vision in Game is of herself in Rhaegar's armor--not on Aerys' throne. In Rhaegar's armor. 

49 minutes ago, Nevets said:

That's an awful lot of trouble to go to for a very speculative and relatively minimal return.  The fact is that at any time that a switch would be reasonable Daenerys is much more of a millstone for Viserys and Lord Darry than she is an asset.

Why? If there's only one remaining royal Targ, that makes it harder to make deals, marriages, support, etc. With two, you'd have more options, no?

And if Dany is Ashara's--hiding her might have become a necessity. Dany looks as Targaryen as it gets. And Ashara was Elia's attendant. Keeping that child around could potentially bring dangerous questions.

Hiding her as a replacement child in the Free Cities. . . . might keep the Daynes safer. Even if it broke Ashara.

43 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Not true. It could also mean that Barristan has started to have other kind of feelings for Dany.

But unless I'm misremembering, Barristan only mentions loving Ashara in this moment. If it's to show he was in love with someone and might be with Dany, any pretty woman from his past would do. But Martin has Barristan crushing on the woman we've been hearing about throughout the novels--without yet explaining why Ashara matters.

37 minutes ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

Yet we know that she already knows it hence the swap hasn't worked.

But a lot of other people are clueless. And the secret is being kept. That's the point.

17 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

re: Ashara's eyes and Dany's: we know from other sources that Ashara Dayne was once one of the greatest beauties of Westeros (and his crush), and many, many sources attest that Daenerys is a beautiful woman. Barristan's thoughts might be a way for George to show us that this isn't like Joffrey's martial skills - exaggerated because who can be honest about the King - and that Dany really is a remarkably attractive.

But by the time Barristan says this in Dance, does anyone doubt that Dany's gorgeous?

17 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

This might tie Dany back into Maggy's prophecy about the younger, more beautiful queen.

Maybe. But then why say she looks like Ashara's daughter, bringing up the miscarriage? He could just say, "At times he thought he was looking at Ashara again" or "Ashara, risen from the dead"--all sorts of options.

One way or another, Barristan's thoughts re: Ashara and Dany seem to hold little purpose other than to connect them for the reader.

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2 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

But a lot of other people are clueless. And the secret is being kept. That's the point.

By a lot you mean Stannis?

3 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

But unless I'm misremembering, Barristan only mentions loving Ashara in this moment. If it's to show he was in love with someone and might be with Dany, any pretty woman from his past would do. But Martin has Barristan crushing on the woman we've been hearing about throughout the novels--without yet explaining why Ashara matters.

Not all the women had purple eyes and needed his help.

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1 hour ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

By a lot you mean Stannis?

And all the people around him.

And presumably a fair amount of the Watch.

Point is--the people who could be a danger to Mance's son are kept in the dark. And if they do find out, the boy is far enough away to not be an issue.

ETA: And all those who do know don't go blabbing to those who don't. A potentially big secret kept by a lot of people.

Quote

Not all the women had purple eyes and needed his help.

Right--but any woman who needed his help would do for the reveal that was suggested: the reveal that Barristan might be falling for Dany.

If that's all this means, Martin could have had Barristan long for, or at some point long to help, or wish he had crowned--any woman at Harrenhal. We don't find out about any of his longings until he brings it up. Which means--any woman could be inserted.

But Martin picked the woman who keeps being brought up without yet telling us why. And he chooses to have Baristan connect Dany to Ashara's daughter--again, there's a lot of other ways he could have had Barristan reflect his interest. This is the one he chose.

And it's in this moment that we hear the rumor that Ashara had a daughter--since Game, the rumor was that she'd had a son. 

The info all comes out of nowhere. And, as I said, if all it means is that Barristan's got a crush on Dany, there are other ways Martin could have accomplished this--without bringing in Ashara's hypothetical daughter out of the blue.

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4 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Point is--the people who could be a danger to Mance's son are kept in the dark. And if they do find out, the boy is far enough away to not be an issue.

Which is easy enough to accomplish in the short term. It's a harder sell to say that nobody ever talked, not to anyone, for 15+ years.

4 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Right--but any woman who needed his help would do for the reveal that was suggested: the reveal that Barristan might be falling for Dany.

Why would he think of another woman who didn't look like Dany + Ashara, but did need his help, when both Dany and Ashara did need his help, and have a similar appearance? Given the physical element of attraction, it makes sense that he'd compare these who, who happen to share a relatively rare character trait.

4 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

The info all comes out of nowhere. And, as I said, if all it means is that Barristan's got a crush on Dany, there are other ways Martin could have accomplished this--without bringing in Ashara's hypothetical daughter out of the blue.

Again, I feel strongly that this might just be an indication of similar levels of beauty, possession of rare traits. 

Beyond that, two other ideas spring to mind for me:

  1. this is meant to be some sort of hint to the Ashara Dayne tragedy that will be further expounded on in TWOW and which we don't yet have enough information to make sense of;
  2. this is a further red herring from George, a way for George to further muddy the waters of Harrenhal and final days of Lyanna, Ashara, and the true parentage of Jon.

I definitely agree there's more to learn here. I just don't see it supporting the idea of any parents for Dany other than Aerys II and Rhaella; or supporting any parents for Jon other than Rhaegar and Lyanna.

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43 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

Which is easy enough to accomplish in the short term. It's a harder sell to say that nobody ever talked, not to anyone, for 15+ years.

A fair point. No way to know how well the Gilly-baby-swap will hold up as a secret over the years.

But the "king" is kept in the dark. Along with his people.

And if the hypothetical about Dany's being Ashara's daughter holds up--there are traces of a potential lie in the stories about Ashara's potential baby: some have heard it might be Ned's and a boy (both Cersei and Cat have heard this). But Barristan has heard it was a stillborn girl--why the discrepancy? At least one options (admittedly among others) is that people have lied about Ashara and her baby. For some reason.

43 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

Why would he think of another woman who didn't look like Dany + Ashara, but did need his help, when both Dany and Ashara did need his help, and have a similar appearance? Given the physical element of attraction, it makes sense that he'd compare these who, who happen to share a relatively rare character trait.

My apologies--I didn't explain myself well.

My point: we know nothing about Barristan feeling like Ashara needed him, or crushing on anyone until he brings it up.

Therefore, Martin could have had any woman be the one who needed Barristan (in his thoughts). Any woman could be the one he's crushing on. And could have had any point of comparison with said woman. He could have been crushing on Lynesse, etc.

But Martin chooses the woman he's been bringing up since Game--for no clear reason as of yet. 

43 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

Again, I feel strongly that this might just be an indication of similar levels of beauty, possession of rare traits. 

Possible--but again: since we know nothing of this until we get Barristan's thoughts, any woman could suffice. But Martin chooses the woman he's been bringing up for a while.

AND brings up that the rumor that Ashara had a boy may very well be wrong.

43 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

Beyond that, two other ideas spring to mind for me:

  1. this is meant to be some sort of hint to the Ashara Dayne tragedy that will be further expounded on in TWOW and which we don't yet have enough information to make sense of;

Agreed--and one possibility for that tragedy?

Quote

"He is a man of the Night's Watch, she thought, as he sang about some stupid lady throwing herself off some stupid tower because her stupid prince was dead. The lady should go kill the ones who killed her prince. Feast, Cat of the Canals.

That Ashara lost her love and the father of her child--a prince.

43 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

 

  1. this is a further red herring from George, a way for George to further muddy the waters of Harrenhal and final days of Lyanna, Ashara, and the true parentage of Jon.

Maybe. . . but Barristan's statement about a daughter seems to deal yet another blow to Ashara's being Jon's mother.

So, does it muddy that debate, or clarify it a bit by eliminating/undermining one of the options?

43 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

I definitely agree there's more to learn here. I just don't see it supporting the idea of any parents for Dany other than Aerys II and Rhaella;

My apologies--Idid not mean to infer that Barristan's statements alone are enough to doubt Dany's origins.

But in context with other elements of her story and the imagery around her and her reactions to things. . . . in that context, seems like we're being given reason to ask who Dany is.  Quaithe tells Dany to remember who she is. So, what has Dany forgotten?

43 minutes ago, velo-knight said:

or supporting any parents for Jon other than Rhaegar and Lyanna.

On this point: I shouldn't have brought it up on this thread. But I agree: this alone is not enough to establish Jon's parentage one way or another.

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5 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

True--and there were multiple witnesses to the birth of Dalla's baby.

And Jon still pulled off that swap. Multiple people--all telling the same story.

We are talking about two very different things, Sly Wren.

With the swap of Dalla's baby, Gilly and Val know, and Maester Aemon knows, but even Sam doesn't know until half way through the voyage to Braavos.This is not a lot of people to manage a secret, especially because the people they are keeping a secret from only have to believe it for a while and most of those who know have sailed away. Basically, Jon and Val have to be silent until Sam, Gilly, and the Dalla's boy sail away from Eastwatch.

Now, correct me if I'm wrong, because I know you don't always agree with Wolfmaid in all details, but this idea fancies that a pretend Rhaella faked the pregnancy, faked the birth including the storm that destroys the fleet, and Rhaella's death. Then they fake taking care of a nonexistent child until Ser Willem runs off with Viserys.This masquerade goes on for over nine months, if we include someone disguised as Rhaella leaving King's Landing. This conspiracy is vast. It has to include the people of Dragonstone and the men of the Royal Navy - basically all of them to be safe. And it has to last 17 years. Please!

For what do they do this?

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10 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

And all the people around him.

And presumably a fair amount of the Watch.

Point is--the people who could be a danger to Mance's son are kept in the dark. And if they do find out, the boy is far enough away to not be an issue.

ETA: And all those who do know don't go blabbing to those who don't. A potentially big secret kept by a lot of people.

How do you know that? How do you know that the people close to Stannis don't know about Monster because the closest person to Stannis and the one who wants to use Dalla's baby knows the truth. So it seems that the only person who mattered knew th truth.

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43 minutes ago, ShadowCat Rivers said:

What problem does it solve?

...is the first question that every theory must answer.

QFT.  All the *theories* might have some circumstantial clues but they don't have a logical reason why they have to happen. How they help the overall story and so on.

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Why would Willam Darry or Viserys or Rhaelle do this? It makes no sense. Why would they take the bastard daughter of their sworn enemy and protect her? It simply does not add up, at all. Sorry. In order for a theory to make sense, I think you need at least the beginnings of a sensible argument about why someone would do something. Ned protecting his sister's child makes sense. This does not. 

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15 hours ago, The Ned's Little Girl said:

Now, now. There's no need to be snide. I can't speak for the others, but I'm not pissed off - just seeing it differently than you. Anyone participating in a public discussion board ought to be prepared for people to disagree and say so.

Sure.

14 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I take by that you are trying to point to a sexual segregation of those who attend the birth? I have no problem with that other than a maester attending and possibly the father. We know male maesters (the only kind, officially anyways) attend births. Pycelle and Luwin are both said to have been in attendance at Cersei and Catelyn's children's births respectively. That's part of their job. It also appears by Cersei's remarks that Robert could have attended if he wanted. Whether that's because of his role as father or king isn't quite clear. And we know Jaime makes his attendance possible by threats of force.

My point wasn't against custom stopping most men from attending - I don't think we have any proof of that - but that by speaking of an "army" attending her, Cersei tells us there are many witnesses to a royal birth. I'd suggest she is using "midwives" as general term to mean a lot of women who are helping the birth. That likely means actual trained midwives, a wet-nurse or two for after the birth, and various servants for general running and getting whatever is needed. All under the direction of a maester, who may or may not know what the hell he is doing. For births outside nobility and outside a castle, it probably means no maester, and quite a bit fewer women, but it still is often a cooperative effort to help.

The point being witnesses to a birth, particularly a royal birth like Dany's is a small number of people. In addition there are all the people who had to deal with a newborn child for the period from the birth to the escape from Dragonstone. Add to this all the people who would have dealt with Rhaella as she died from complications from the birth and dealt with the funeral of a queen after here death. Lots of folks. All telling the same story.

No, it doesn't bug me that both Dany's eyes, the eyes of a Targaryen princess, and those of Ashara Dayne are similar. Martin has made it clear for a very long time that the "purple" eye coloring is not exclusive to the Daynes or the Targaryens. I am very intrigued by both the still born daughter and the "suicide." The suicide mostly because Martin tells us no body was ever found. The stillborn daughter because it likely is a child from the scandal at Harrenhall and that opens up questions about who would be the child's father. I just come to a very different conclusion than you do. I don't see a connection between Ashara's stillborn daughter, probably born in the early stages of the rebellion, and Dany who is born well over a year, possibly two years later.

Don't mistake skepticism or disbelief for being pissed off. There is lots of evidence to say this theory is wrong. Saying so, doesn't mean people are mad at you for thinking differently.

Not sexual segregation but rather a socio-economic one. Apart from the maester its all low working-class women. And if their stories spread upwards (like it did with Cat) we all know how easily those are silenced.

14 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

If you read "Grand Maester Pycelle and an army of midwives" and think "privacy", that's on you.

I've asked the question before, I'll ask it again: logistics. How, by what means, and why, did Ashara Dayne's daughter get swapped for Daenerys Targaryen. And how did they manage to keep it a secret.

Sorry if I pissed you off with that question. ;)

Again Ned pretty much proved to us what midwives stories are worth. :P

And also, me saying "this smells fishy" does not mean I owe you a logistical explanation. There might not really be one until GRRM writes it.

 

13 hours ago, Nevets said:

Not nearly as much as the issues with logistics and motives do.  Both Dany and Ashara have violet eyes, relatively rare but a characteristic of both of their families.  That fact is probably why he notices it.  And he was clearly obsessed with Ashara.  

I have always assumed the child was the product of either Brandon or Ned.  Either the stillbirth happened or, if the child lived, it is most likely Allyria Dayne, Edric's aunt and Beric Dondarrion's betrothed.  

I am firmly of the belief that Ashara matters.  I believe that she was involved with the Tower of Joy, and may have been Ned's source as to Lyanna's location.  She may also have had an affair with either Brandon or Ned.  I also believe she is still alive, probably as either Septa Lemore or Quaithe (her suicide is extremely suspicious).  But that doesn't mean she is Dany's mother.

Given that, iirc, the Daynes were big Targ loyalists, I would expect Ashara to have an interest in the last remaining trueborn Targaryen.

 

And anyone who is familiar with Dalla's baby is going to know the difference.  The purpose of the swap was to get Dalla's baby away from Mel for long enough that she couldn't do anything about it, not to keep it a secret forever.  In fact, keeping it a secret permanently would defeat the purpose, which was to save the lives of both babies.

That's an awful lot of trouble to go to for a very speculative and relatively minimal return.  The fact is that at any time that a switch would be reasonable Daenerys is much more of a millstone for Viserys and Lord Darry than she is an asset.

For me its also where its dropped, right in-between other more dramatic stuff, which to me is certainly suspicious.

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