Football: International Break-Up

[mormont]

33 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

Valencia is good at getting up and down the line but his delivery is woeful. The vast majority of his crosses fail to get past the first defender at the near post. I've said this before, his crossing strategy seems to be "kick the ball as hard as I can and hope for the best". Eventually we will need to sort out our fullback positions especially left back. Imagine how much more effective Martial and Rashford could be if they had an attacking left back of Mendy's quality on the outside supporting them.

Premier league statistics on crossing accuracy:

Benjamin Mendy - 17%

Antonio Valencia - 26%.

https://www.premierleague.com/players/5575/Benjamin-Mendy/stats

https://www.premierleague.com/players/3285/Antonio-Valencia/stats

 

[Jordan La Cabra]

2 hours ago, Calibandar said:

However the fact that Conte is suddenly benching Willian is a worrying sign that the manager is losing confidence and is being more conservative; this guy should always play especially after they already let Oscar go.

I know he scored last night, but Willian hasn't been great this season. If we play 3 forwards, Hazard is always going to be one our wide forwards and then it will be between Willian and Pedro. And for me, Pedro is the more effective player. He may not always play well, but in Pedro, you know he can get a goal from anywhere and out of nothing. Willian needs to step his game up if he wants to win a spot ahead of Pedro.

As for Oscar, he had decent spells at Chelsea, but always faded as the season went on. When Conte changed from 4141 to 343, Oscar's Chelsea career effectively ended. He was a decent player, but we don't miss him and he certainly doesn't compare to Hazard, Pedro or Willian.

[Consigliere]

13 minutes ago, mormont said:

Premier league statistics on crossing accuracy:

Benjamin Mendy - 17%

Antonio Valencia - 26%.

https://www.premierleague.com/players/5575/Benjamin-Mendy/stats

https://www.premierleague.com/players/3285/Antonio-Valencia/stats

 

I'd still say that Mendy is the better crosser - he consistently puts the ball into a dangerous area rather than consistently hitting the first man. Also, since it looks like these stats include Valencia's entire premier league career, I think it should be noted that his delivery used to be better back when he played as a winger for Wigan and United, which is why I'm sometimes harsh on him. Also wonder whether Mendy's % would be higher if he had big targets like Lukaku, Fellaini and Zlatan - these players can still win a header even if the cross is not particularly good which, I think, inflates Valencia's stats.

[Jordan La Cabra]

Also, crossing accuracy only tells half the story. Prior to his injury, Mendy had played some brilliant crosses this season that no one got on the end of. I'm sure that is true of Valencia, also, though.

[baxus]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

Premier league statistics on crossing accuracy:

Benjamin Mendy - 17%

Antonio Valencia - 26%.

https://www.premierleague.com/players/5575/Benjamin-Mendy/stats

https://www.premierleague.com/players/3285/Antonio-Valencia/stats

 

Way to ruin a discussion by bringing facts into it!  

[Calibandar]

1 hour ago, JordanJH1993 said:

I know he scored last night, but Willian hasn't been great this season. If we play 3 forwards, Hazard is always going to be one our wide forwards and then it will be between Willian and Pedro. And for me, Pedro is the more effective player. He may not always play well, but in Pedro, you know he can get a goal from anywhere and out of nothing. Willian needs to step his game up if he wants to win a spot ahead of Pedro.

 

But can't Willian play instead of Victor Moses? I've always found Moses such an average player and thought it remarkable that he attained a starting spot in a squad such as Chelsea's. I'm not saying I would insist on Pedro's starting , but I do wonder if, when Hazard-Morata and Pedro all have to play according to Conte, can't you put Willian in for Moses? Especially if my midfield already has Bakayoko and Kante doing so much defensive work, and Alonso on the left being versatile as well.

[mormont]

57 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

I'd still say that Mendy is the better crosser - he consistently puts the ball into a dangerous area rather than consistently hitting the first man. Also, since it looks like these stats include Valencia's entire premier league career, I think it should be noted that his delivery used to be better back when he played as a winger for Wigan and United, which is why I'm sometimes harsh on him. Also wonder whether Mendy's % would be higher if he had big targets like Lukaku, Fellaini and Zlatan - these players can still win a header even if the cross is not particularly good which, I think, inflates Valencia's stats.

Maybe, maybe not. The sample size for Mendy is admittedly low. But 26% is objectively a very successful crossing rate and not that of a guy who 'consistently hits the first man'. Nor can I see a reasonable explanation for why Valencia might be a better crosser as a winger than as a full-back, and his stats for last season back that up, I believe. They were some of the best in the league.

Sometimes stats don't tell the whole story, but equally, sometimes our eyes don't either. We have all sorts of biases that cause us to remember and over-emphasise poor crosses from one player and good crosses from another.

[Jordan La Cabra]

19 minutes ago, Calibandar said:

But can't Willian play instead of Victor Moses? I've always found Moses such an average player and thought it remarkable that he attained a starting spot in a squad such as Chelsea's. I'm not saying I would insist on Pedro's starting , but I do wonder if, when Hazard-Morata and Pedro all have to play according to Conte, can't you put Willian in for Moses? Especially if my midfield already has Bakayoko and Kante doing so much defensive work, and Alonso on the left being versatile as well.

Willian doesn't have the defensive capabilities or work rate that Moses has. To play in that wing back role for Chelsea, sometimes you have to become more of a defender than an attacker when we switch to a back 5, and Willian just couldn't do that.

I actually think Chelsea have missed Moses quite a bit since he got injured, as we have been playing Azpilicueta at RWB in the PL instead of Zappacosta. Azpilicueta is a brilliant defender, but he's not anywhere near as threatening in the final third as Moses. I think Conte should give Zappacosta a chance in the league, as he seems to be good at getting up and down and is a threat with crosses.

[Consigliere]

13 minutes ago, mormont said:

Maybe, maybe not. The sample size for Mendy is admittedly low. But 26% is objectively a very successful crossing rate and not that of a guy who 'consistently hits the first man'.

Sometimes stats don't tell the whole story, but equally, sometimes our eyes don't either. We have all sorts of biases that cause us to remember and over-emphasise poor crosses from one player and good crosses from another.

I think it is a fair assessment to say that Valencia consistently hits the first man, having actually watched most of United's games. I can only trust my eyes and what I've seen for a while now is Valencia doing alot of good work up and down the line but, time and again, lets himself down with poor delivery. It's quite frustrating to watch. Furthermore, this cross completion %, much like passing accuracy %, doesn't actually speak to quality when looked at in isolation. As I said, I suspect his cross completion stats are inflated due to having big fellas like Zlatan, Fellaini and Lukaku who can get their heads to even a poor quality cross.

 

Quote

Nor can I see a reasonable explanation for why Valencia might be a better crosser as a winger than as a full-back, and his stats for last season back that up, I believe. They were some of the best in the league.

I didn't mean to imply that Valencia is a better crosser if he plays as a winger. What I meant is that Valencia used to be a better crosser in years gone by than he is now.

[mormont]

20 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

I think it is a fair assessment to say that Valencia consistently hits the first man, having actually watched most of United's games. I can only trust my eyes and what I've seen for a while now is Valencia doing alot of good work up and down the line but, time and again, lets himself down with poor delivery. It's quite frustrating to watch. Furthermore, this cross completion %, much like passing accuracy %, doesn't actually speak to quality when looked at in isolation. As I said, I suspect his cross completion stats are inflated due to having big fellas like Zlatan, Fellaini and Lukaku who can get their heads to even a poor quality cross.

Your eyes (and your memory) are subject to bias: the stats aren't.

Having a big guy in the box can help only marginally - a poor cross that 'hits the first man' isn't going to reach a striker, however big they are. Others, playing with the same strikers, have poorer hit rates. And Valencia's stats don't just include times when he had a big man to hit anyway.

20 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

I didn't mean to imply that Valencia is a better crosser if he plays as a winger. What I meant is that Valencia used to be a better crosser in years gone by than he is now.

Maybe, but his completion stats last season were 29%: the season before, 26%. That's still, objectively, good figures: among the best in the league, in fact.

There are two hypotheses here. One is that Valencia consistently gets great cross completion stats for years on end despite actually being a shit crosser of the ball, and this is down to luck, or team tactics, or the strikers he's worked with, or some combination of these factors. The other is that you've been frustrated when you see him hit the first man, and are now convinced he's shit because you're subject to the same psychological biases as everyone else and notice every time he does that and forget most of the times he puts in a good cross.

[Consigliere]

36 minutes ago, mormont said:

Your eyes (and your memory) are subject to bias: the stats aren't.

Having a big guy in the box can help only marginally - a poor cross that 'hits the first man' isn't going to reach a striker, however big they are. Others, playing with the same strikers, have poorer hit rates. And Valencia's stats don't just include times when he had a big man to hit anyway.

Maybe, but his completion stats last season were 29%: the season before, 26%. That's still, objectively, good figures: among the best in the league, in fact.

There are two hypotheses here. One is that Valencia consistently gets great cross completion stats for years on end despite actually being a shit crosser of the ball, and this is down to luck, or team tactics, or the strikers he's worked with, or some combination of these factors. The other is that you've been frustrated when you see him hit the first man, and are now convinced he's shit because you're subject to the same psychological biases as everyone else and notice every time he does that and forget most of the times he puts in a good cross.

Hypothesis #1 is correct. I've watched more than enough of Valencia over the past few years to confidently say that his delivery is poor. Since we are throwing stats about, Mendy has more than double the number of assists since last season. So while Valencia has a higher cross completion %, Mendy puts in testing crosses into dangerous areas more consistently than Valencia does. Cross completion % does not necessarily equal good crosser just like pass accuracy % does not necessarily mean good passer - the player could also be a backwards and sideways merchant which inflates his stats.

[mormont]

33 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

Hypothesis #1 is correct.

I haven't watched as much of Valencia as you have, but the case you've put forward would account for a temporary inflation of maybe a couple of percentage points in his stats, not for him consistently being statistically one of the best crossers in the league.

In any case your first and seemingly most major criticism (hitting the first man and therefore not completing the cross) is clearly invalidated by the stats whether or not the crosses are going to a big guy, whether or not they're going to dangerous areas, and whether or not they're resulting in goals. Those things can only have an effect after the cross gets past the first man...

ETA - on another note, Rangers have sacked Pedro Caixinha:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41762385

He's actually managed to beat Paul LeGuen's record as the shortest Rangers managerial appointment.

[Jordan La Cabra]

30 minutes ago, mormont said:

ETA - on another note, Rangers have sacked Pedro Caixinha:

I'll miss him. His reign his given me so many hilarious moments to laugh at the Rangers supporters I know about.

 

ETA: Let's open up a can of worms, @mormont. Big Sam or Neil Lennon for the job?

[Consigliere]

42 minutes ago, mormont said:

I haven't watched as much of Valencia as you have, but the case you've put forward would account for a temporary inflation of maybe a couple of percentage points in his stats, not for him consistently being statistically one of the best crossers in the league.

In any case your first and seemingly most major criticism (hitting the first man and therefore not completing the cross) is clearly invalidated by the stats whether or not the crosses are going to a big guy, whether or not they're going to dangerous areas, and whether or not they're resulting in goals. Those things can only have an effect after the cross gets past the first man...

The stats don't invalidate my point though. Valencia attempts alot of crosses as well - I'd expect him to be up near the top of the attempted crosses stats too. Some get through, some are even good/decent crosses, most are not but he then has a big fella or two who can get their heads to it which inflates his cross completion numbers but still most of his crossing attempts fail to get past the first defender. This is blatantly apparent if you watch a decent amount of him and is the most frustrating thing about Valencia's game.

And once again, cross completion % does not necessarily mean good/one of the best crossers. This is most certainly a case of a single stat not giving the full picture.

[ljkeane]

2 hours ago, mormont said:

There are two hypotheses here. One is that Valencia consistently gets great cross completion stats for years on end despite actually being a shit crosser of the ball, and this is down to luck, or team tactics, or the strikers he's worked with, or some combination of these factors.

The new stats everyone seems to like are expected goals and assists, I think it's a little more subjective than just pass completion statistics but this site which has their xA stats freely available have Mendy with an xA per 90 of 0.23 compared to Valencia at 0.02. So there is some statistical evidence to support Valencia not being the creative influence Mendy is.

[polishgenius]

The thing about Valencia is that he never aims his crosses, just lamps them as low and hard as he can across the box. This causes a certain amount of chaos but it does mean he just boots it off the first man a lot, and also means that even if one of our players gets a touch on it, he hasn't picked them out, and they're often just scrambling to get anything on it. I'm not as frustrated by it as Consigliere, especially this season when the bouncing around suits the strengths of Lukaku and Rashford, but Mendy and Trippier are far better crossers.

It's not moving to RB that made his crossing worse, for some reason his injury a few years ago did it. He was fucking blistering in 2012/13 where he got 13 assists, most of which came in six months when he came back into the team from the December when Nani was out. Then he got injured for most of 13/14 and when he came back he couldn't cross. It's why he got moved to RB in the first place.

[Consigliere]

12 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

It's not moving to RB that made his crossing worse, for some reason his injury a few years ago did it. He was fucking blistering in 2012/13 where he got 13 assists, most of which came in six months when he came back into the team from the December when Nani was out. Then he got injured for most of 13/14 and when he came back he couldn't cross. It's why he got moved to RB in the first place.

Yes, exactly. Which is why, I guess, my criticism can sometimes come across as harsh. It's because I remember what he used to be capable of. If only he could reproduce that same quality of delivery he used to, he wouldn't merely be a good, solid right-back; he'd be outstanding. In addition, Mourinho has Valencia as the FB with license to attack so his wastefulness does grate on me a bit and it puts a damper on all the other good work he does. Defensively he's improved massively compared to when he first moved to RB. He rarely makes a defensive error these days.

[mormont]

15 hours ago, JordanJH1993 said:

I'll miss him. His reign his given me so many hilarious moments to laugh at the Rangers supporters I know about.

 

ETA: Let's open up a can of worms, @mormont. Big Sam or Neil Lennon for the job?

Hey, McCoist wants them to get Smith and Souness back. Next to that genius idea, those look like reasonable suggestions.

14 hours ago, Consigliere said:

The stats don't invalidate my point though.

Er... they absolutely do. If 26% of Valencia's crosses are completed, then 26% of them (at least) are not hitting the first defender. Since that's a percentage figure, whether he attempts lots of crosses is irrelevant*. Since the percentage he's completing is higher than average, he's hitting the first defender (or equivalent) less than other players. Since your point was that he hits the first defender too often, your point is in fact disproved by these statistics. That's not even in question.

Now, whether those completed crosses result in goals is another question, and a fair one.

ETA - to be fair, that's not quite true: if he's attempting lots of crosses then the absolute figure of how often he hits the first defender would be higher, but that's not a question of quality but a side effect of quantity. The absolute number that reach their man would also be higher, as well as the proportionate number.

[Jordan La Cabra]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

Hey, McCoist wants them to get Smith and Souness back. Next to that genius idea, those look like reasonable suggestions.

Seeing the early favourites are McLeish (again) and Billy Davies (LOL) and McInnes. They should be pulling out all the stops to get McInnes in. Aberdeen is a better team and in a better position than Rangers, but Rangers is a big club and surely they could tempt him.

Wildcard could be de Boer? We can't say his poor showing at Palace or Inter would put them off if they're considering Davies and McLeish. Salary demands might be a bit of a sticking point with that one, though.

[mormont]

McInnes is the obvious choice but the question is, why would he accept? He's a Rangers man, OK, but the club is a mess, it's doubtful how much money there is to spend after Caixinha spent a ton (and more will need to be spent to move his players on), and McInnes already turned down Sunderland - who probably offered a bigger salary than Rangers can.

I feel like if he stays at Aberdeen and keeps overachieving, McInnes will get a bigger job than Rangers. But if he takes the Rangers job, he'd need to win the league (at least) to keep attracting notice from clubs outside of Scotland. That's a bad choice.