R+L=J v.165

[Frey family reunion]

14 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Our Targaryens consistently speak of The Prince That Was Promised, never Azor Ahai, or Azor Ahai come again/reborn.

That's not completely accurate.  Aemon and Rhaegar seem to conflate the Prince that Was Promised prophecy with the prophecies concerning Azor Ahai reborn:

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"It was a prince that was promised, not a princess.  Rhaegar, I thought ... the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died.  He shared my belief when he was young, but later became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King's Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet.

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In ancient books of Asshai it is written that there will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy over the world.

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When the red star bleeds and darkness gathers, Azor Ahai shall be born again amidst smoke and salt to wake dragons out of stone.

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

It is an intriguing possibility... That Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree and that she was afraid Aerys would find out and sought Rhaegar's protection, or that Aerys had found out and ordered Rhaegar to bring her heart back in a box. 

I wouldn't go as far as bringing her heart in a box, but there could be something consistent here with whatever Viserys told Dany about the whole "carrying her off at sword point," and that's that Viserys never seemed to acknowledge his father's madness to his sister. He told Dany that he was called the Mad King, but he also told her it was a lie from the "usurper and his dogs." Dany starts finding out the truth about Aerys from Barristan. 

It's also easy for Viserys to choose the story he wants to believe before his life was thrown into chaos by all this.

He could have told her that Rhaegar carried Lyanna at sword point away from her marriage, but maybe he did it for a whole other reason that has to do with his father finding out that she was the mystery knight. 

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

It is an intriguing possibility... That Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree and that she was afraid Aerys would find out and sought Rhaegar's protection, or that Aerys had found out and ordered Rhaegar to bring her heart back in a box. 

I tend to favor a variation of the latter. That Aerys found out that Lyanna was TKOTLT, and that Rhaegar found out/was told that Aerys meant to have her arrested and do who knows what with her. I believe that Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna as QOLAB was single-handedly responsible for Aerys and his lickspittles turning their attention to House Stark as possible collaborators in Rhaegar's alleged conspiracy to depose him and place Rhaegar on the Iron Throne.

The way I see it as of now, Rhaegar discovered that Lyanna was TKOTLT, was impressed at what she had done, and attempted to honor her, but it was understandably taken wrong by pretty much everyone. To Aerys and his small council, it implicated House Stark in Rhaegar's alleged plots to gain the Iron Throne from Aerys, whether Rhaegar had already succeeded in bringing them on board, or was intending to bring them on board.

If Rhaegar already felt guilt for causing Aerys to associate House Stark with his own alleged plots, and then he found out that Aerys had discovered TKOTLT's identity and intended to have Lyanna arrested after putting the new information together with his existing suspicions of House Stark, I think that would go a long way towards explaining why Rhaegar suddenly up and decided to abduct Lyanna.

And I also think it would go towards explaining Rhaegar seemingly abducting Lyanna to whomever witnessed the scene. If he knew or believed that Aerys had sent or would soon be sending men to arrest Lyanna, and he rode up on her telling her that she was in danger and has to come with him, I could see Lyanna refusing to go willingly, and Rhaegar and his men taking her against her will.

Not that this need rule out prophecy or love playing a role in Rhaegar's intentions then or after the fact, but it would give Rhaegar other motivations to have urgently made off with Lyanna in the first place, which would include his own rule in putting her in danger at the hands of his father.

Interestingly, the word "perfidy" is used twice in Maester Yandel's TWOIAF, once when Aerys commanded his knights to defeat TKOTLT so that he might be unmasked and his perfidy exposed for all to see, and once when Rhaegar named Lyanna QOLAB and Aerys's lickspittle lords declared it further proof of his perfidy.

Furious, he commanded his own knights to defeat the Knight of the Laughing Tree when the jousts resumed the next morning, so that he might be unmasked and his perfidy exposed for all to see. But the mystery knight vanished during the night, never to be seen again. This too the king took ill, certain that someone close to him had given warning to "this traitor who will not show his face." (TWOIAF: The Fall of the Dragons - The Year of the False Spring)

And when the triumphant Prince of Dragonstone named Lyanna Stark, daughter of the Lord of Winterfell, the queen of love and beauty, placing a garland of blue roses in her lap with the tip of his lance, the lickspittle lords gathered around the king declared that further proof of his perfidy. Why would the prince have thus given insult to his own wife, the Princess Elia Martell of Dorne (who was present), unless it was to help him gain the Iron Throne? The crowning of the Stark girl, who was by all reports a wild and boyish young thing with none of the Princess Elia's delicate beauty, could only have been meant to win the allegiance of Winterfell to Prince Rhaegar's cause, Symond Staunton suggested to the king. (TWOIAF: The Fall of the Dragons - The Year of the False Spring)
 

[Bael's Bastard]

19 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

That's not completely accurate.  Aemon and Rhaegar seem to conflate the Prince that Was Promised prophecy with the prophecies concerning Azor Ahai reborn:

Wrong. It is completely accurate to the best of our knowledge. Aemon, Rhaegar, and the other Targaryens never speak of Azor Ahai or Azor Ahai reborn/come again, let alone associate those legends or prophecies with their own TPTWP prophecy. It is only through Melisandre that they are conflated, not through any of our Targaryens.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I wouldn't go as far as bringing her heart in a box, but there could be something consistent here with whatever Viserys told Dany about the whole "carrying her off at sword point," and that's that Viserys never seemed to acknowledge his father's madness to his sister. He told Dany that he was called the Mad King, but he also told her it was a lie from the "usurper and his dogs." Dany starts finding out the truth about Aerys from Barristan. 

It's also easy for Viserys to choose the story he wants to believe before his life was thrown into chaos by all this.

He could have told her that Rhaegar carried Lyanna at sword point away from her marriage, but maybe he did it for a whole other reason that has to do with his father finding out that she was the mystery knight. 

I was alluding to the huntsman in Snow White. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Wrong. It is completely accurate to the best of our knowledge. Aemon, Rhaegar, and the other Targaryens never speak of Azor Ahai or Azor Ahai reborn/come again, let alone associate those legends or prophecies with their own TPTWP prophecy. It is only through Melisandre that they are conflated, not through any of our Targaryens.

IIRC when Melisandre names Stannis Azor Ahai reborn at Castle Black, Aemon says she speaks of the Battle for Dawn, Lightbringer and the prince that was promised. 

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

IIRC when Melisandre names Stannis Azor Ahai reborn at Castle Black, Aemon says she speaks of the Battle for Dawn, Lightbringer and the prince that was promised. 

The overall issue with assuming Rhaegar the Moron had any clue what that meant is that the man apparently never visited either the North or the Wall during this life, not to mention neither he nor his royal father, grandfather, and great-grandfather were doing anything to prepare Westeros and the Wall for this War for the Dawn, despite that fact that Aegon V, Jaehaerys II, and Aerys II all knew about and/or believed in the prophecy.

This indicates they may have believed in some great war thing but not necessarily in something as ridiculous and nonsensical as the Others.

Maester Aemon has credible reports about the Others by the time he connects the dots. He has reason to believe he actually knows what this war is about. Rhaegar and his ancestors did not have the same knowledge.

[Bael's Bastard]

28 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

IIRC when Melisandre names Stannis Azor Ahai reborn at Castle Black, Aemon says she speaks of the Battle for Dawn, Lightbringer and the prince that was promised. 

It is after Maester Aemon asks "But where is the prince that was promised?" that Melisandre answers "He stands before you," then claims that Stannis is Azor Ahai come again, and so on, to which Aemon has no response.

Aemon, like the other Targaryens that speak of TPTWP, only ever speaks of TPTWP. He never speaks of the legendary Azor Ahai, nor or the Azor Ahai come again/reborn prophesied by the followers of R'llhor, nor corroborates that the TPTWP and Azor Ahai come again/reborn are one and the same prophecy or figure.

He is certainly aware of the legendary Azor Ahai, as he leaves Jon Colloquo Votar's book, and has Clydas mark the passage(s) about the legendary hero written of in the annals in Asshai, which the followers of R'hllor call Azor Ahai.

But Aemon never corroborates Melisandre's conflation of TPTWP and Azor Ahai come again/reborn.

"Nightfires?" Bowen Marsh gave Melisandre an uncertain look. "We're to light nightfires now?"
 
"You are." The woman rose in a swirl of scarlet silk, her long copper-bright hair tumbling about her shoulders. "Swords alone cannot hold this darkness back. Only the light of the Lord can do that. Make no mistake, good sers and valiant brothers, the war we've come to fight is no petty squabble over lands and honors. Ours is a war for life itself, and should we fail the world dies with us."
 
The officers did not know how to take that, Sam could see. Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwyck exchanged a doubtful look, Janos Slynt was fuming, and Three-Finger Hobb looked as though he would sooner be back chopping carrots. But all of them seemed surprised to hear Maester Aemon murmur, "It is the war for the dawn you speak of, my lady. But where is the prince that was promised?"
 
"He stands before you," Melisandre declared, "though you do not have the eyes to see. Stannis Baratheon is Azor Ahai come again, the warrior of fire. In him the prophecies are fulfilled. The red comet blazed across the sky to herald his coming, and he bears Lightbringer, the red sword of heroes."
 
Her words seemed to make the king desperately uncomfortable, Sam saw. Stannis ground his teeth, and said, "You called and I came, my lords. Now you must live with me, or die with me. Best get used to that." He made a brusque gesture. "That's all. Maester, stay a moment. And you, Tarly. The rest of you may go." (ASOS: Samwell V)

[Alexis-something-Rose]

45 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I was alluding to the huntsman in Snow White. 

I got the reference. I just wasn't sure if it was a tongue in cheek comment. 

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Wrong. It is completely accurate to the best of our knowledge. Aemon, Rhaegar, and the other Targaryens never speak of Azor Ahai or Azor Ahai reborn/come again, let alone associate those legends or prophecies with their own TPTWP prophecy. It is only through Melisandre that they are conflated, not through any of our Targaryens.

Then why do you think Aemon references his belief that Rhaegar was TPTWP because of the associations of salt and smoke at Summerhall?  Why does Aemon indicate that Rhaegar thought Aegon was TPTWP because he believed the comet over King's Landing the night of Aegon's conception was "the bleeding star"?

Is this just a coincidence?  Or does TPTWP prophecy just have the same salt, smoke, and bleeding star language to herald TPTWP  that the AAR prophecies do? 

[Lord Varys]

37 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Aemon, like the other Targaryens that speak of TPTWP, only ever speaks of TPTWP. He never speaks of the legendary Azor Ahai, nor or the Azor Ahai come again/reborn prophesied by the followers of R'llhor, nor corroborates that the TPTWP and Azor Ahai come again/reborn are one and the same prophecy or figure.

He implicitly treats the promised prince as if he is the same kind of savior the reborn Azor Ahai is supposed to be, and Melisandre does the same. She thinks Stannis is the savior because he is the Lord of Dragonstone, basically, which is the place of smoke and salt even in her view. Jon tries to tell her that Stannis wasn't born on the island, but she apparently doesn't care. He also has the dragon blood, which seems also the a prerequisite for the promised prince version of the prophecy.

But in the end the whole nonsense of 'promised prince' might actually be just the Targaryen name for the savior guy because they knew he would be of their blood and thus a prince.

37 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

He is certainly aware of the legendary Azor Ahai, as he leaves Jon Colloquo Votar's book, and has Clydas mark the passage(s) about the legendary hero written of in the annals in Asshai, which the followers of R'hllor call Azor Ahai.

Aemon could completely ignore all that if he thought the Lightbringer sword and Azor Ahai (historical or reborn) were irrelevant to the topic at hand. He thinks a *real Lightbringer* would have to be hot due to the story from the Jade Compendium.

37 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

But Aemon never corroborates Melisandre's conflation of TPTWP and Azor Ahai come again/reborn.

What he definitely does, though, is confirm that the promised prince has to fight in the War for the Dawn (whatever that is). And if those Azor Ahai reborn versions of the prophecy also mention that war, then it seems likely that, in the end, the Targaryen version of the prophecy and the version the red priests have all go back to one 'source prophecy'. Marwyn claims the thing is pretty old, and that means there would be various scrolls of it, done by different scribes in different contexts, etc. One assumes the original prophecy goes back to some Valyrian, perhaps even an ancient Targaryen. Else it would be odd that the family thinks this guy is going to come from their bloodline.

The difference is just that the R'hllorians and the Targaryens (and perhaps other dragonlords before them) have incorporated the prophecy to various degrees in their own cultural and religious framework.

The R'hllorians do believe in rebirth, a dualistic set of deities, etc. whereas the scholarly Targaryens don't ascribe to that.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

The overall issue with assuming Rhaegar the Moron had any clue what that meant is that the man apparently never visited either the North or the Wall during this life, not to mention neither he nor his royal father, grandfather, and great-grandfather were doing anything to prepare Westeros and the Wall for this War for the Dawn, despite that fact that Aegon V, Jaehaerys II, and Aerys II all knew about and/or believed in the prophecy.

Unless of course, that Summerhall was all about preparing for the War for the Dawn.  Aemon directly connects the War for the Dawn, the same thing that Melisandre is warning everyone about, with the arrival of the Prince that was Promised.  And its apparent that Aemon equates the events of Summerhall with the Prince that was Promised prophecy.

[Bael's Bastard]

16 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Then why do you think Aemon references his belief that Rhaegar was TPTWP because of the associations of salt and smoke at Summerhall?  Why does Aemon indicate that Rhaegar thought Aegon was TPTWP because he believed the comet over King's Landing the night of Aegon's conception was "the bleeding star"?

The Targaryens who believe in TPTWP and the three heads of the dragon see these as parts of the prophecy about TPTWP.

The followers of R'hllor who believe that the legendary ancient hero Azor Ahai will be reborn/come again see these as parts of the prophecy about Azor Ahai reborn/come again.

But that does not mean that the prophecies of TPTWP and the three heads of the dragon, and the prophecies of Azor Ahai reborn/come again, are one and the same, or all feature in one prophecy.

Azor Ahai is a legendary ancient hero from the past who the followers of R'hllor believe will be reborn/come again in the future.

TPTWP and the three heads of the dragon are, as far as we know, people/roles the Targaryens believe will come in the future.

25 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Is this just a coincidence?  Or does TPTWP prophecy just have the same salt, smoke, and bleeding star language to herald TPTWP  that the AAR prophecies do? 

No, and it is entirely possible that both beliefs are drawing from some of the same sources. But that does not mean that those who believe that TPTWP and three heads of the dragon will come necessarily believe that the legendary ancient hero Azor Ahai will be reborn/come again.

Melisandre could be syncretizing two distinct beliefs, whatever their common sources or overlaps, into one. Perhaps she is even cutting to the heart of the matter, and is correct to do so. But that is beside the point.

We have a handful of Targaryens on record about their beliefs in TPTWP to come, but none has said anything about this idea of the legendary ancient hero in ancient annals in Asshai, which the followers of R'hllor are apparently responsible for claiming is called Azor Ahai, or the rebirth/coming again that the followers of R'hllor prophesy.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

He implicitly treats the promised prince as if he is the same kind of savior the reborn Azor Ahai is supposed to be, and Melisandre does the same. She thinks Stannis is the savior because he is the Lord of Dragonstone, basically, which is the place of smoke and salt even in her view. Jon tries to tell her that Stannis wasn't born on the island, but she apparently doesn't care. He also has the dragon blood, which seems also the a prerequisite for the promised prince version of the prophecy.

Aemon makes no mention of or comment of the Azor Ahai reborn/come again prophecy Melisandre is selling, or her conflation of that with the PTWP prophecy he obviously believes in. He is clearly aware of the legendary Azor Ahai, and was likely already aware of the prophecy that Azor Ahai would be reborn/come again, but that is not the same as him affirming that the Azor Ahai reborn/come again thing is part of the PTWP prophecy he and other Targaryens believe in. As of now, Melisandre is the only one conflating these two figures, no matter how similar they may seem, no matter what common sources they may share, or overlaps they may have.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

But in the end the whole nonsense of 'promised prince' might actually be just the Targaryen name for the savior guy because they knew he would be of their blood and thus a prince.scribe to that.

Yes, it seems possible, perhaps even likely, that TPTWP is a uniquely Targaryen take on a prophesied hero to come.

Just as the name Azor Ahai and the belief in him being reborn/coming again, might be a uniquely R'hllorian take on an ancient hero who put darkness to route, and a prophesied hero to come. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Aemon could completely ignore all that if he thought the Lightbringer sword and Azor Ahai (historical or reborn) were irrelevant to the topic at hand. He thinks a *real Lightbringer* would have to be hot due to the story from the Jade Compendium.

Aemon merely tests the claim being made about the sword against its properties. Doesn't inherently mean any more or less than that. And as for Lightbringer in general, TWOIAF implies that the name of the sword, Lightbringer, is a constant across the different traditions of the legendary hero, unlike the different traditions of names for the hero himself. As of yet, TPTWP prophecy hasn't been linked to an ancient hero, or to an ancient sword, though it may yet.

How long the darkness endured no man can say, but all agree that it was only when a great warrior—known variously as Hyrkoon the Hero, Azor Ahai, Yin Tar, Neferion, and Eldric Shadowchaser—arose to give courage to the race of men and lead the virtuous into battle with his blazing sword Lightbringer that the darkness was put to rout, and light and love returned once more to the world.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

What he definitely does, though, is confirm that the promised prince has to fight in the War for the Dawn (whatever that is). And if those Azor Ahai reborn versions of the prophecy also mention that war, then it seems likely that, in the end, the Targaryen version of the prophecy and the version the red priests have all go back to one 'source prophecy'. Marwyn claims the thing is pretty old, and that means there would be various scrolls of it, done by different scribes in different contexts, etc. One assumes the original prophecy goes back to some Valyrian, perhaps even an ancient Targaryen. Else it would be odd that the family thinks this guy is going to come from their bloodline.

The difference is just that the R'hllorians and the Targaryens (and perhaps other dragonlords before them) have incorporated the prophecy to various degrees in their own cultural and religious framework.

The R'hllorians do believe in rebirth, a dualistic set of deities, etc. whereas the scholarly Targaryens don't ascribe to that.

It wouldn't be surprising if some elements of the PTWP prophecy believed by at least some Targaryens, and the Azor Ahai reborn/come again prophecy believed by the followers of R'hllor, go back to a common source. In fact, that seems highly likely to me. But TPTWP and Azor Ahai reborn/come again may yet be two distinct traditions that have developed quite differently. For all we know, TPTWP prophecy could have been a more Valyrian tradition, or perhaps even be an even more exclusive Targaryen take on things that developed after they were the only dragonlords left.

My whole point is just that the way Melisandre conflates TPTWP and Azor Ahai reborn/come again does not necessarily mean that they belong to the same tradition, and aren't distinct traditions. Perhaps we will find out that the name Azor Ahai and idea of Azor Ahai reborn/come again are also integral to the PTWP prophecy the Targaryens believe in. But for now, I think we have enough reason to think that they could be distinct traditions, since Targaryens have yet to show any care for this Azor Ahai stuff.

[Magnar, P.I.]

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

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Still, it seems clearly meant to lead us towards it being some kind of fairy tale romance. 

With a very non-fairy tale-like ending...

That's perfectly fair, that could be the subversion right there. I guess there's no reason to think there's going to be some big twist/reveal in the vein of "No, I am your father" but that seems to be the groupthink about it, and if true I think it has to be more than this. 

16 hours ago, Ygrain said:

That said, I do believe that Ned's thought provide veiled hints that Lyanna actually made her own choice and chose Rhaegar over Robert, but with no further corroborating information, the case is not as strong as for Rhaegar loving Lyanna.

Right, there's too much evidence for this as the accepted version either way, since the very first book, that if there is a twist to it coming then, again, it has to be more than this. Can't wait to (hopefully) find out what that is!

[SFDanny]

4 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

My whole point is just that the way Melisandre conflates TPTWP and Azor Ahai reborn/come again does not necessarily mean that they belong to the same tradition, and aren't distinct traditions. Perhaps we will find out that the name Azor Ahai and idea of Azor Ahai reborn/come again are also integral to the PTWP prophecy the Targaryens believe in. But for now, I think we have enough reason to think that they could be distinct traditions, since Targaryens have yet to show any care for this Azor Ahai stuff.

I think this is a fair caution on this topic. I would only add the obvious that the Targaryen tradition incorporates much newer influences. In particular, it includes the visions of Jenny's wood witch about the The Prince That Was Promised would be born of the Aerys and Rhella's line. I would say it is likely true as well that the part about incorporating the dragon having three heads comes from the same source. Melisandre has no access to this tradition and her view of Stannis as the promised prince reflects that fact.

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Ser Barristan went on. "I saw your father and your mother wed as well. Forgive me, but there was no fondness there, and the realm paid dearly for that, my queen."

"Why did they wed if they did not love each other?"

"Your grandsire commanded it. A woods witch had told him that the prince was promised would be born of their line."

"A woods witch?" Dany was astonished.

"She came to court with Jenny of Oldstones. A stunted thing, grotesque to look upon. A dwarf, most people said, though dear to Lady Jenny, who always claimed that she was one of the children of the forest." (ADwD 300-391) bold emphasis added

Daenerys's grandsire is Jahaerys II, not Aegon V whose daughter's line would include Stannis. So, it is highly unlikely Melisandre knows of this prophecy. It is certainly questionable that any of the Baratheon brothers knew of this prophecy or cared about it if they did.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Aemon makes no mention of or comment of the Azor Ahai reborn/come again prophecy Melisandre is selling, or her conflation of that with the PTWP prophecy he obviously believes in. He is clearly aware of the legendary Azor Ahai, and was likely already aware of the prophecy that Azor Ahai would be reborn/come again, but that is not the same as him affirming that the Azor Ahai reborn/come again thing is part of the PTWP prophecy he and other Targaryens believe in. As of now, Melisandre is the only one conflating these two figures, no matter how similar they may seem, no matter what common sources they may share, or overlaps they may have.

Aemon also gives no indication that these two things refer to two different people. No indication that he believes this is the case. Not when he talks to Stannis and Mel, and not when he talks to Sam after hearing about Dany.

If those concepts were supposed to be seen by the reader as different people then there would have been a lot of time to introduce that in those scenes.

I don't think Martin cares much about the prophecy as such. Else he would have long ago given us a version of it.

The message is that there will be a savior/powerful hero. Whether he is born of royal (Targaryen) blood, a reborn guy, or a horse mounting the world is, at this point, not all that important to him - or even the story. Else we would have long gotten some text, along with characters interpreting it this or that way.

I'd really like that, but George has yet to deliver. I'm not sure it would be of much use when we already know who the savior is - then the really interesting question is what he or she has to do. And that is apparently not part of any ancient prophecy.

5 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Yes, it seems possible, perhaps even likely, that TPTWP is a uniquely Targaryen take on a prophesied hero to come.

Only the phrase. Not the overall take on it. Else Marwyn would not claim to know the prophecy. And it seems the whole salt-and-stone and bleeding star part is part of any version of the prophecy. Mel knows it, Marwyn knows it, Aemon knew it, Rhaegar knew it, etc.

Whatever made the Targaryens believe this prophecy refers to their lineage is unclear at this point. I think this is a very crucial question because without a good reason that their blood is meant in the prophecy their obsession with this prophecy makes no sense at all.

It would make them all the raving, driveling lunatics only some of them are at this point. It would especially make Rhaegar look like the greatest Targaryen madman.

5 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Aemon merely tests the claim being made about the sword against its properties. Doesn't inherently mean any more or less than that. And as for Lightbringer in general, TWOIAF implies that the name of the sword, Lightbringer, is a constant across the different traditions of the legendary hero, unlike the different traditions of names for the hero himself. As of yet, TPTWP prophecy hasn't been linked to an ancient hero, or to an ancient sword, though it may yet.

This is hardly surprising. A circle of rebirth and reincarnation is not part of Westerosi mythology or religion. But Benerro makes it clear that this is part of the religious doctrine of R'hllorism - he promises the people dying in Dany's service to be reborn in a world of glory.

It is not surprising that a prophecy about a future hero doing sort of the same thing as the ancient hero is going to be seen as the reincarnation/rebirth of that guy. But that doesn't mean that rebirth was part of the original prophecy. That could be part of the religious tradition/interpretation of the prophecy.

5 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

It wouldn't be surprising if some elements of the PTWP prophecy believed by at least some Targaryens, and the Azor Ahai reborn/come again prophecy believed by the followers of R'hllor, go back to a common source. In fact, that seems highly likely to me. But TPTWP and Azor Ahai reborn/come again may yet be two distinct traditions that have developed quite differently. For all we know, TPTWP prophecy could have been a more Valyrian tradition, or perhaps even be an even more exclusive Targaryen take on things that developed after they were the only dragonlords left.

See above. I agree that if a version of the prophecy were to go back to, say, pre-Valyrian Asshai we would have to assume there are two different prophecy tradition - and then the prophecies could technically refer to different people/saviors (or not, it would depend on the details of the prophecy whether they can refer to the same person or not)..

But since we learned in TWoIaF that R'hllor was worshiped in Valyria and there were red temples there, it is possible that the original prophecy was made and entered into various traditions there.

How the Targaryens came to the conclusion that they were meant by the prophecy is a very tough nut to crack. It could be that one of their family - perhaps the original founder of the Valyrian dragonlord House Targaryen? - made the prophecy (they do have prophetic powers, after all), it could be a later addendum to the prophecy (like the one the Ghost made) which made the Targaryens this special bloodline from which the savior would come, it could be that the prophecy itself provided the criteria to identify the Targaryens as this special family (for example, a line could go like this 'from the line of the last dragonlord family will come...') making it clear the Targaryens are meant and not some descendants of other dragonlord families living in Volantis, Lys, Tyrosh, Myr, etc.

Melisandre and Benerro both seem to know the prophetic traditions enough to use the same criteria as the Targaryens (Aemon) use to identify the savior.

5 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

My whole point is just that the way Melisandre conflates TPTWP and Azor Ahai reborn/come again does not necessarily mean that they belong to the same tradition, and aren't distinct traditions. Perhaps we will find out that the name Azor Ahai and idea of Azor Ahai reborn/come again are also integral to the PTWP prophecy the Targaryens believe in. But for now, I think we have enough reason to think that they could be distinct traditions, since Targaryens have yet to show any care for this Azor Ahai stuff.

I don't think we can say it are traditions that did not influence each other. I mean, there could have been dragonlords - Targaryens, even! - among the followers of R'hllor in Valyria. Perhaps some of them did have prophetic visions/dreams relevant to this savior thing? We don't know.

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Unless of course, that Summerhall was all about preparing for the War for the Dawn.  Aemon directly connects the War for the Dawn, the same thing that Melisandre is warning everyone about, with the arrival of the Prince that was Promised.  And its apparent that Aemon equates the events of Summerhall with the Prince that was Promised prophecy.

From what we know about Summerhall it strongly implies this was *not* about this prophecy. It was about Aegon V bringing the dragons back for his own personal political agenda, nothing related to the promised prince.

It isn't even clear whether Aegon V believed in the prophecy about the promised prince - if he did he must have believed he was the guy himself since he was trying to wake dragons from stone. And that doesn't fit well with his son's belief Aerys and Rhaella would produce the promised prince (or their descendants).

And that belief is what causes people to believe Rhaegar might be the promised prince - after all, he is Rhaella's child by Aerys, and he was born amidst smoke and salt (in the mind of some).

[Geddus]

21 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

If Rhaegar already felt guilt for causing Aerys to associate House Stark with his own alleged plots, and then he found out that Aerys had discovered TKOTLT's identity and intended to have Lyanna arrested after putting the new information together with his existing suspicions of House Stark, I think that would go a long way towards explaining why Rhaegar suddenly up and decided to abduct Lyanna.

Maybe, but then we would need an explaination as to why Rhaegar didn't bring her to Winterfell, or just to her brother in Riverrun. Provided the prince wasn't just a colossal moron, of course; in that case no explaination would be required.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Geddus said:

Maybe, but then we would need an explaination as to why Rhaegar didn't bring her to Winterfell, or just to her brother in Riverrun. Provided the prince wasn't just a colossal moron, of course; in that case no explaination would be required.

If we follow the wonky timeline we are provided with, Catelyn says that Brandon had left Riverrun on some errand when he heard what happened to his sister and rode to King's Landing. We don't know if he found out about her before or after the "errand."

We don't know that Rhaegar wasn't planning on taking Lyanna to Riverrun and delivering her back to her father. To me, it always seemed that Brandon's decision to ride for King's Landing made everything go sideways. 

We can only really speculate on this at this point. I tend to fall outside the whole they ran away together, got married right away and went to Dorne where they remained, then Rhaegar went to war and Lyanna remained in the tower. I completely disagree with all of this.

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Geddus said:

Maybe, but then we would need an explaination as to why Rhaegar didn't bring her to Winterfell, or just to her brother in Riverrun. Provided the prince wasn't just a colossal moron, of course; in that case no explaination would be required.

I can only speculate.

I don't believe Rhaegar was a colossal moron, but with the benefit of hindsight, we already know the reactions his crowning Lyanna QOLAB caused, and the chain reactions and consequences his alleged abduction of Lyanna caused. No matter how strong a motive or explanation one comes up with, or how strong a motive or explanation the author eventually gives us, we already know that war soon broke out, Rhaegar died, Lyanna died, most of their families died, and Rhaegar's family lost the Iron Throne.

Even before Rhaegar's alleged abduction of Lyanna, in the QOLAB matter, there is reason to think that beyond his own intentions or motivations, he might not have given enough thought or been deterred by all of the ways his actions might be interpreted or responded to by different parties. I don't believe he was a colossal moron, but that doesn't mean he wasn't susceptible to blind spot, or disregarding all the ways a thing could unfold outside of the way he intended.

I suspect that Rhaegar's immediate intent was to keep Lyanna away from everybody for the time being, whether they might lead her to harm, or whether they might refuse to give her up to harm. Away from Aerys and his men so they could not arrest her. Away from any house that might send her on to Aerys. Away from any house that might refuse to send her on to Aerys if given an ultimatum. Perhaps he believed his way might prevent a confrontation or provocation until he could clear things up.

Immediately trying to escort Lyanna to Winterfell, whether by land or by sea, would have required them traveling large distances, through the lands and territories of houses that could intend harm to one or both, whether out of loyalty to Aerys, or out of loyalty to their own lords. That is also true of trying to escort her to Riverrun, or wherever her father was on his way to Riverrun.

And enlisting this or that house to aid him on the way to delivering Lyanna to Winterfell or Riverrun, aside from having no idea who any such house would decide their duty was to in the scenario, could lead to Aerys finally declaring and demanding action against Rhaegar, as well as against those houses that aided him. It also had the potential of setting some of his companions, such as Ser Oswell Whent and Myles Mooton, against their own houses in Harrenhal and Maidenpool.

Just because, in his mind, he was trying to protect Lyanna, assuming my speculation is on the right track, doesn't change that he was a Targaryen from House Targaryen.  Rhaegar had reportedly been suspected by Aerys and his small council of plotting to depose him and sit the Iron Throne in his place. There might even be pearls of truth to these suspicions. But I don't believe Rhaegar ever would have led or joined in outright war against his father. Nor do I believe he had any desire to war against the lords he expected to become king over when he succeeded Aerys.

So long as Rhaegar kept it a small mission under his control with few collaborators, he might be able to keep Lyanna out of harm's way long enough to clear things up before war broke out.

Of course, we know that whether his intentions were along these lines or far different, Brandon delivered himself to Aerys in King's Landing, and was killed along with Rickard, and all of their companions, and that the war that came took Rhaegar, Oswell, Myles, Arthur, Aerys, Aegon, Rhaenys, Elia, and so many others, and that Lyanna, Ashara, and Rhaella did not long survive it.

But even if he had intended to escort Lyanna to Riverrun, if Brandon got to King's Landing first, then that might have changed everything. 

Anyways, I can't say I have some well thought out idea of every aspect of it. Not saying that the above is the greatest speculation or explanation, but just throwing some stuff around based on the idea that Rhaegar found out that Lyanna was in danger at the hands of Aerys, and was attempting to keep her safe for the time being.