U.S. Politics: Girthers Vs. Anti-Girthers

[Martell Spy]

17 minutes ago, WinterFox said:

I am not at all concerned about Too Tang's approval rating until it cracks 43%. People aren't ashamed to admit they like him at this point, and quite frankly it has been a credible theory that 1/4 of any society responds positively to demagogues and strongmen. 

So I find it not at all difficult to chalk Trump's 35 to 45 percent approval up to simpletons that like strongmen combined with a nice 10 to 20 percent of racists, moral cravens, opportunists, and the blind. 

That's not tongue in cheek. Donald is not going to win the presidency with 40 percent of the vote, not 43 percent, and I strongly doubt he skates away with the gold with 46% this time. 

Ms. Stein might not want to throw her hat into the 2020 ring, because something tells me that a couple of those 'protests votes' are coming back into the fold. 

I'm very optimistic. We weathered the hardest part guys. They got the tax scam through, but the institutions have held (if barely) and now we get to go on the offensive. 

As for the current crises, unless there's a really poison pill in this CBR I think Democrats should take CHIP for 6 years and call this one a win. That being said, I won't blame them in the slightest if they hold firm on DACA. And maybe Chuck should call up the Great Debater himself and make a 'deal' that outlines sitting down with him, Graham, Durbin, Pelosi, Ryan, McConnell and whoever else might be ABSOLUTELY necessary. No Stephen Miller, no Flynn. 

And then we could see the fastest bipartisan passage of a series of funding bills and reasonable immigration measures (Like expanding DACA) in human history as the cellphones of Trump's psychotic enablers mysteriously have the batteries removed. 

Or something unforeseeable and horrific will rise like a Russian submarine into a confused Turk's backyard pond to throw everything into chaos again.

Regarding the tax scam. Awful as it was, we basically have to just admit that the Republicans will decide to give away around 2 to 3 trillion to the rich every ten years. That's if they don't decide to spend a ton on some war of choice as well. That's about how often they gain full control of Washington and they always do something like this now. If Americans won't wake up and put a stop to it, well it's just a part of life. We've done fairly well with keeping most of Obamacare intact.

We are not fully out of the woods yet either, although I share your electoral optimism. There could be a Korean War for example.

[Sivin]

5 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Dems in the Senate might buy a few day CR, but it would drive the Defense hawks crazy, so not sure that's going to fly...

That's actually ideal, because that's completely returning serve and Democrats in the House can be persuaded to take such an opportunity. So literally turning the tables in other words. Getting a win by presumably returning to good faith negotiations if Lindsay Graham keeps his word and exposing the HFC as either the cowards that they are if they vote with the short bill or as the fucking hypocrites they are if they don't vote on it. 

[DMC]

8 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Dems in the Senate might buy a few day CR, but it would drive the Defense hawks crazy, so not sure that's going to fly...

Meh, there's not many defense hawks in the Senate at this point.  One is home sick and another keeps on saying he's gonna vote against any short-term CR anyway.

[Sivin]

4 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Regarding the tax scam. Awful as it was, we basically have to just admit that the Republicans will decide to give away around 2 to 3 trillion to the rich every ten years. That's if they don't decide to spend a ton on some war of choice as well. That's about how often they gain full control of Washington and they always do something like this now. If Americans won't wake up and put a stop to it, well it's just a part of life. We've done fairly well with keeping most of Obamacare intact.

We are not fully out of the woods yet either, although I share your electoral optimism. There could be a Korean War for example.

Oh, yeah. I check my hope at the door every time I step into my apartment in preparation for the latest nightmare. 

But I stand by what I said. We're not out of the woods, yeah, but we did come through the worst of the thick and the trees are thinning. 

And if you think that a Korean War is going to boost his popularity more than it's going to potentially increase voter turnout to get the madman out of office then you need TICKLES!!!!! 

Tickle yourself a bit, you left the window locked and I can't get in.  

[all swedes are racist]

this is (mostly) extremely good news

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/j20-trump-protests-latest-trial-charges-dropped-justice-department-a8167011.html

charges dropped against 129 inauguration protestors, though 59 individuals still face potential felony charges and several decades in jail if convicted

 

[Martell Spy]

House GOP Passes Stopgap Spending Bill Aimed at Shifting Shutdown Blame to Democrats

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2018/01/house-passes-spending-bill-to-shift-shutdown-blame-to-dems.html

Quote

The long-standing wrangle over the provisions that need to accompany measures to keep the federal government functioning morphed from negotiations to pure Kabuki theater today. Ironically, the House conservatives who used their leverage to kill the possibility of an immigration deal that could have resolved the entire crisis helped pass a bill on a party-line vote (230-197) that they knew the Senate would not approve. It’s pretty obvious the point was to shift blame to the upper chamber, and especially its Democrats, for the shutdown that is very likely to begin tomorrow night.

This is really the height of privilege, to own all the halls of power and to blame another party for a shutdown of your very own government. It's kind of like Mitt Romney and his nifty car collection complaining about Walmart workers not paying taxes.

[ants]

31 minutes ago, dr. thicc president said:

this is (mostly) extremely good news

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/j20-trump-protests-latest-trial-charges-dropped-justice-department-a8167011.html

charges dropped against 129 inauguration protestors, though 59 individuals still face potential felony charges and several decades in jail if convicted

 

To be honest, if the state can prove those remaining did cause damage, I'm fine with them being prosecuted.  It was always the aresting and charging of people who simply chose to protest that was wrong and evil. 

[all swedes are racist]

1 minute ago, ants said:

To be honest, if the state can prove those remaining did cause damage, I'm fine with them being prosecuted.  It was always the aresting and charging of people who simply chose to protest that was wrong and evil. 

absolutely nothing that happened at that protest deserves any jail time at all, let alone decades worth

[Martell Spy]

1 hour ago, WinterFox said:

Oh, yeah. I check my hope at the door every time I step into my apartment in preparation for the latest nightmare. 

But I stand by what I said. We're not out of the woods, yeah, but we did come through the worst of the thick and the trees are thinning. 

And if you think that a Korean War is going to boost his popularity more than it's going to potentially increase voter turnout to get the madman out of office then you need TICKLES!!!!! 

Tickle yourself a bit, you left the window locked and I can't get in.  

That's very unprofessional, telling other analysts on the political commentary panel to tickle themselves.

No, I don't really have a nightmare scenario of Trump gaining popularity from a Korean War. That scenario seems more likely from a large terror attack on U.S. shores. But if nukes, conventional weapons, whatever breaks out over there, we just don't know what will happen next or even what the world will look like. For example, how would the world respond if a through the actions of a stupid President, hundreds of thousands of South Koreans died from rockets, artillery, etc. shot from NK? And that's just a somewhat limited scenario, where no nukes came into play, and somehow things stopped there with no further casualties.

[The Anti-Targ]

I think the one thing the Dems should never do (or rather only do when there is a major threat of severe systemic damage to the country) is cause a govt shut down. Even with it's rightward drift, the core of Democratic party ideology is that the work of the federal govt is important and good for the country. And sending 10s (or 100s) of thousands of people home with no pay for an indefinite period of time also strikes at the heart of Democratic party ideals. 

Use all manner of blocking tactics you can, but don't cause millions of innocent people (most of whom probably did not vote for Trump or the Republicans) to suffer, even for a day. One day of lost income can be a big struggle for some people. One day of not being able to access an important govt service can cause harm to someone who is right at the bottom of the social heap.

DACA is not something that should precipitate a govt shut down. I don't know all the intricacies of this round of govt shut down threat and whether there are some really big fish to fry, but if the biggest fish is DACA, as much as I have sympathy for the 7-800,000 dreamers, I don;t think it justifies the shut down.

Also, a US govt shut down affects my ability to do my job, though I will still come to work and get paid, so it's an annoyance rather than being a material personal concern.

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, WinterFox said:

 

Tickle yourself a bit, 

Is that actually possible? I thought one oddity about tickling is that you can't tickle yourself. I know I can't and I'm a very ticklish person.

[LongRider]

Shark Week?  Forbes magazine? Spanking?

Hilarity enthuses.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/01/stormy-daniels-once-claimed-she-spanked-donald-trump-with-a-forbes-magazine/

Quote

[Stormy] Daniels was serious enough about running that she embarked on a May 2009 “listening tour” of the state and held discussions with local political consultants. Those conversations included coming up with possible campaign contributors. According to a May 8, 2009, email written by an operative advising Daniels, who asked not to be identified, Daniels at one point scrolled through her cellphone contacts to provide her consultants with a list of names. The email noted that the potential donors included Steve Hirsch, the founder of an adult entertainment company; Theresa Flynt, the daughter of Hustler’s Larry Flynt; Frazier Boyd, the owner of a strip club chain; and Jenna Jameson, the so-called “Queen of Porn.” Also on the list: Donald Trump.

This email was sent to Andrea Dubé, a Democratic political consultant based in New Orleans. In response, Dubé expressed surprise that Daniels was friendly with Trump. “Donald Trump?” she wrote. “In her cell phone?” 

“Yep,” the other consultant replied. “She says one time he made her sit with him for three hours watching ‘shark week.’ Another time he had her spank him with a Forbes magazine.” 

I know it's lurid and not really important, but it's just, so, so........Donald. 

[all swedes are racist]

24 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I think the one thing the Dems should never do (or rather only do when there is a major threat of severe systemic damage to the country) is cause a govt shut down. Even with it's rightward drift, the core of Democratic party ideology is that the work of the federal govt is important and good for the country. And sending 10s (or 100s) of thousands of people home with no pay for an indefinite period of time also strikes at the heart of Democratic party ideals. 

Use all manner of blocking tactics you can, but don't cause millions of innocent people (most of whom probably did not vote for Trump or the Republicans) to suffer, even for a day. One day of lost income can be a big struggle for some people. One day of not being able to access an important govt service can cause harm to someone who is right at the bottom of the social heap.

DACA is not something that should precipitate a govt shut down. I don't know all the intricacies of this round of govt shut down threat and whether there are some really big fish to fry, but if the biggest fish is DACA, as much as I have sympathy for the 7-800,000 dreamers, I don;t think it justifies the shut down.

whoa whoa whoa, wait... now i was pretty much on board with you for most of that, until you got towards d’s the bolded— people missing a few days work is the bigger outrage than uprooting folks entire fucking lives, separating families, and ejecting then from the damn country? wtf?

24 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Also, a US govt shut down affects my ability to do my job, though I will still come to work and get paid, so it's an annoyance rather than being a material personal concern.

ah, nevermind, makes sense now

[DMC]

11 minutes ago, dr. thicc president said:

whoa whoa whoa, wait... now i was pretty much on board with you for most of that, until you got towards d’s the bolded— people missing a few days work is the bigger outrage than uprooting folks entire fucking lives, separating families, and ejecting then from the damn country? wtf?

Yeah the fact is the only leverage the Dems have on DACA is by "forcing" a shutdown (I don't like using that word because we should be clear who's to blame - the party enjoying unified government).  Could they wait until next month?  I suppose, but after the shithole statements the pressure and politics are especially ripe to make their stand now. 

And let's keep it real, nothing's gonna change by Feb 16 anyway, so really it's just a matter if you think holding the line on DACA is worth non-essential employees losing a few weeks of pay.  Also - very importantly - furloughed employees usually receive back pay after the shutdown ends.

[James Arryn]

4 hours ago, WinterFox said:

Oh, yeah. I check my hope at the door every time I step into my apartment in preparation for the latest nightmare. 

But I stand by what I said. We're not out of the woods, yeah, but we did come through the worst of the thick and the trees are thinning. 

And if you think that a Korean War is going to boost his popularity more than it's going to potentially increase voter turnout to get the madman out of office then you need TICKLES!!!!! 

Tickle yourself a bit, you left the window locked and I can't get in.  

I don’t get the argument re: war. I think an argument can be made that the US will react differently to War THIS time than it has in almost every other time in modern history, but to argue that a change in the clear pattern is so inevitable that those who think otherwise are fooling themselves is a pretty audacious argument to make. And that’s without accounting for the fact that like half the country have seen what Trump does and approves even without the rally-round-the-flag bit. 

I like that you’re (at times) trying to get pro-actively positive in your outlook, I really do, but there’s some real hubris creeping in there at the same time, especially when you’re lecturing people on what will/won’t happen because of the inherent greatness of the US of A. When it comes to US politics, a dose of self-affirmation is often like adding a match to an already-raging forest fire; it may be important for you in your particular situation, but like 99.999% of American evils have been perpetuated out of extreme egocentricity/belief in own greatness/hubris rather than, lol, lacking in self-confidence. 

[TheKitttenGuard]

Does anyone know the extent that Escrow can be used in Government. Just thinking if the Democrats can offer the money for the wall in Escrow and the money can be used when Mexico makes a deposit. So the money there and for use once Mexico is paying for it.

I do not think realistic yet will be fun talking up how great an negoitator Trump this should be a very neglible and minor matter. No reason to oppose since Trump is the best negotiator. Also it just helping to keep a key promise.

[DMC]

5 minutes ago, TheKitttenGuard said:

Does anyone know the extent that Escrow can be used in Government. Just thinking if the Democrats can offer the money for the wall in Escrow and the money can be used when Mexico makes a deposit. So the money there and for use once Mexico is paying for it.

I do not think realistic yet will be fun talking up how great an negoitator Trump this should be a very neglible and minor matter. No reason to oppose since Trump is the best negotiator. Also it just helping to keep a key promise.

Ha, fun idea.  I don't believe escrow is used in any federal government program, but trust funds certainly are (e.g. social security, medicare).  I'd imagine they could set up something like what you're talking about - and I base this on my absolute zero amount of financial expertise - but I think there'd be considerable political objection to having a bunch of federal dollars just sitting in an account in a futile wait for Mexico.

[ThinkerX]

A glimmer of sanity among (some) Conservatives?  (acknowledging human caused climate change)

 

http://grist.org/article/climate-change-isnt-just-for-democrats-anymore-meet-the-eco-right-republicans/

[Sivin]

54 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

I don’t get the argument re: war. I think an argument can be made that the US will react differently to War THIS time than it has in almost every other time in modern history, but to argue that a change in the clear pattern is so inevitable that those who think otherwise are fooling themselves is a pretty audacious argument to make. And that’s without accounting for the fact that like half the country have seen what Trump does and approves even without the rally-round-the-flag bit. 

I like that you’re (at times) trying to get pro-actively positive in your outlook, I really do, but there’s some real hubris creeping in there at the same time, especially when you’re lecturing people on what will/won’t happen because of the inherent greatness of the US of A. When it comes to US politics, a dose of self-affirmation is often like adding a match to an already-raging forest fire; it may be important for you in your particular situation, but like 99.999% of American evils have been perpetuated out of extreme egocentricity/belief in own greatness/hubris rather than, lol, lacking in self-confidence. 

Hubris? Me? Listen to me. I'm the least hubris! I'm the least hubris person you've ever met! 

Thank you for bringing that to my attention, I will adjust fire accordingly. I'm sure there are other examples than what you quoted, but in that particular instance I was just trying to be whimsical. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 

I guess for US folks who don't like what's going on at all, they can be comforted, if that's the right word to use, in knowing that the whole world is just as proportionately crazy as the USA.

Geezus that is depressing. Here I had been convinced that it was just my country that had shamelessly abandoned its sanity, only to see the nuttery is worldwide! Mankind is doomed.