Mathis Rowan is the Betrayer

[LucionLannister]

So I know it's very popular to assume that Randyll Tarly will betray House Tyrell (despite the fact that he is actively going out of his way to support their interests), but I think Lord Mathis Rowan of Goldengrove is more likely to lead an exodus of Reach lords to House Targaryen (fAegon/Aegon).

First, a few things to point out about Mathis Rowan: He's well liked, capable (Kevan and Jaime Lannister think he would make an able Hand), and loyal. But most importantly, in A Storm of Swords, Rowan is the only one to display physical disgust at the treatment of Elia Martell and her children during Robert's Rebellion at the hands of Tywin Lannister. 

Second, I feel like he may be one of the most underappreciated of Highgarden's strongest bannerman. I mean, Mace Tyrell married Lord Hightower's daughter; is a close friend, cousin and in-law to Lord Redwyne; and is (perhaps unwittingly) very reliant on Lord Tarly in times of war. Whereas Mathis Rowan, Lord of Goldengrove and Warden of the Northmarch, is just kind of there. Unlike Redwyne and Tarly, he never gets his own command during the War of the Five Kings, other than leading a token force at Storm's End when Mace Tyrell rushes back to King's Landing. At the same time, Randyll Tarly is basically in charge of putting the southern Riverlands and northern Crownlands back together, and Paxter Redwyne is charge of all Reach naval operations (besieging Dragonstone until Loras arrives and going to fight the Ironborn).

So we have a loyal, powerful, popular, able and undervalued lord of the Reach, with possibly confirmed Targaryen sympathies, who just happens to be besieging  a castle that (f)Aegon is heading to? All the pieces seem to be in place.

[SurfKook]

sound's good, but what motive does he have to risk everything by backing fAegon?  if fA is proven fake, or looses he will no doubt be crushed by the victor in the race for the iron throne

[LucionLannister]

2 minutes ago, SurfKook said:

sound's good, but what motive does he have to risk everything by backing fAegon?  if fA is proven fake, or looses he will no doubt be crushed by the victor in the race for the iron throne

I think his motivation is just general Targaryen sympathies (being "fit to gag" when talking about Elia's children), and being undervalued by his liege lord.

And with Lord Tywin dead, he might not think he has much to worry about even if he fails. Look at all the lords who rose up against House Baratheon/Lannister and got to keep their heads and (most) of their lands; Blackwood, Bracken, Mallister, Piper, Umber, Dustin, Manderly, etc.

[Lord Varys]

I think I've first put forth this idea ages ago, shortly after ADwD came out.

We have since also learned that Rowan is actually back at Storm's End, commanding the Reach forces there who keep Stannis' men in the castle.

It is therefore not likely that Rown will betray Mace Tyrell, he'll rather join Aegon after the Golden Company surprises him and his forces and takes them prisoner.

That - in combination with the fact that he is a genuine Targaryen loyalist who is really pissed over the murder of Elia and the children should do the trick. Especially after he meets with Jon Connington and Prince Aegon himself.

And Rowan certainly has the prominence and the reputation to draw many a lord and knight (not only in the Reach) to Aegon's cause. He is the most respected man in Mace's entourage along with Tarly.

Tarly will likely stick to Tommen/Mace till the end considering he now has a lot of power at Tommen's court he would likely not (immediately) get at Aegon's. Aegon has other men to reward first.

However, I don't think it likely that Mace will stick with Tommen till the end. He might switch camps again, if he lives long enough. And where he to die then a Lord Willas is likely going to join Aegon, too.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I can very easily see Mathis Rowan defecting to Aegon's side. He is outside of Storm's End. I think he might even have an emotional reaction to the news of Aegon. 

I have to say that after a lot of trouble with Mace's general attitude after having read the prologue of AFFC for the millionth time and the epilogue of ADWD. There is information that he should have had in hand as early as the prologue of Feast that he seems to either have not taken seriously or that he didn't care about because he can't see further than the tip of his nose.

[Ckram]

On 8/8/2018 at 3:24 AM, LucionLannister said:

happens to be besieging  a castle that (f)Aegon is heading to

If we can trust that Ariane II, TWOW, will not be different from the excerpt released in GRRM's website, then

Spoiler

Mathis have either already betrayed the crown or lost the battle against the Golden Company.

When I read the excerpt I was impressed by how fast Aegon took Storm's End, and this theory shed some light in the mistery.

However, Mathis was just one obstacle. If Aegon really holds Storm's End, then he must have dealt with Gilbert Farring too.

Regarding Farring, I suspect that he wasn't willing to surrender the castle but since Estermont's castle is accidentally under siege of 500 golden company men (which conviently hadn't any archer with them in order to put down any of Estermont's ravens), Ser Lomas Estermont must have made Lord Elwood Meadows, the second in command of SE, open the gates to Aegon, dispite Farrings orders.

Even Stannis heard of Elwood's Fossoway cousins that he would surrender the castle if he became the first in command (ACOK, Davos II), so taking down Farring must be a relativelly easy move for a desperate Estermont (of whom Stannis may be nephew or cousin, depending on the appendix you check).

Thus, if the OP is right, then both the betrayals of Mathis and Lomas were needed in order to take over Storm's End.

 

On 8/8/2018 at 9:16 AM, Lord Varys said:

he'll rather join Aegon after the Golden Company surprises him and his forces and takes them prisoner.

Agreed, that's really much more likely.

 

[Lord Varys]

39 minutes ago, Ckram said:

Agreed, that's really much more likely.

The way I see they are likely going to pretend Stannis has hired the Golden Company which has come to end the siege of Storm's End. After the Golden Company makes short work of the Reach forces they'll open the gates, the Golden Company are going to enter the castle and take matters in hand there.

That shouldn't be much of a difficulty. I don't even think there will be much fighting considering that they don't really have a reason to harm Stannis' people there. Some blood will be spilled when they surprise Rowan's troops, and a little bit more, perhaps, when they disarm Stannis' garrison. But it should all go very smoothly.

[Lost Melnibonean]

I don't see much reason to assume that Lord Matthis of House Rowan would turn against Mace Tyrell and join Aegon, but as others have noted, Mathis was left in command of the force laying siege to Stannis’s garrison at Storm’s End, which Jon Connington intended to take by guile. Mathis, then, may already be in Aegon’s camp, willing or not. 

As to Randyll, well... I suspect that House Tarly will soon be under new management. 

[The Sleeper]

Agreed, it he sense that if there is a betrayer among Mace's inner circle it makes much more sense for him to be Rowan than Tarly, which is far as I can tell is based on literally nothing. 

I do however take the statement from the Golden Company about friends in the Reach with a vat of salt. The friends the sellswords will have will be disaffected losers descended from houses that were cracked down in the aftermath of the Blackfyre rebellions.

Rowan may well be a hostage. Still, being described as a prudent and intelligent fellow I doubt he will be taken in by opportunists making unsubstantiated claims. It depends on what regard he holds Connington in. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

5 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

Agreed, it he sense that if there is a betrayer among Mace's inner circle it makes much more sense for him to be Rowan than Tarly, which is far as I can tell is based on literally nothing. 

I do however take the statement from the Golden Company about friends in the Reach with a vat of salt. The friends the sellswords will have will be disaffected losers descended from houses that were cracked down in the aftermath of the Blackfyre rebellions.

Rowan may well be a hostage. Still, being described as a prudent and intelligent fellow I doubt he will be taken in by opportunists making unsubstantiated claims. It depends on what regard he holds Connington in. 

Assuming Aegon et al. captured Matthis Rowan when he

Spoiler

captured Storm's End, 

Jon Connington will likely make him an offer he cannot refuse, support Aegon and be confirmed in your lands and honors or die screaming, in which case Aegon will still take command of the men you have here. 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

So we know Mace and Paxter Redwyne were at the siege of Storm's end during the Battle of the Trident. But I wonder if Mathis Rowan and Randyll Tarly weren't actually present and fighting at the Trident. I'm assuming they would have been and that might hold some importance.

Quote

I do however take the statement from the Golden Company about friends in the Reach with a vat of salt. The friends the sellswords will have will be disaffected losers descended from houses that were cracked down in the aftermath of the Blackfyre rebellions.

I do take that statement with a vat of salt as well. Titus Peake was introduced in the appendix of AFFC, so I imagine he will enter the story in WoW.

That said, I think between the ironborn attacking the Reach and Mace's mess with Margaery, it's very possible that there will be a breakdown in the Reach. 

[Lost Melnibonean]

8 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

So we know Mace and Paxter Redwyne were at the siege of Storm's end during the Battle of the Trident. But I wonder if Mathis Rowan and Randyll Tarly weren't actually present and fighting at the Trident. I'm assuming they would have been and that might hold some importance.

I do take that statement with a vat of salt as well. Titus Peake was introduced in the appendix of AFFC, so I imagine he will enter the story in WoW.

That said, I think between the ironborn attacking the Reach and Mace's mess with Margaery, it's very possible that there will be a breakdown in the Reach. 

Why would you assume that Mathis and Randyll were at the Trident? 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

7 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Why would you assume that Mathis and Randyll were at the Trident? 

Why wouldn't I assume they might have been there? Isn't everything in this thread people assuming things?

It's war. Wouldn't Mace at the very least want his most capable soldier to fight at the big battle while he sat his ass at a siege?

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

Why wouldn't I assume they might have been there? Isn't everything in this thread people assuming things?

It's war. Wouldn't Mace at the very least want his most capable soldier to fight at the big battle while he sat his ass at a siege?

Never thought about that. But it is a possibility. There were some men from the Reach with Rhaegar. And especially Rowan - a true Targaryen loyalist - may have been at the Trident.

If any lords from the Reach were there and they did not just send some knights and levies.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Never thought about that. But it is a possibility. There were some men from the Reach with Rhaegar. And especially Rowan - a true Targaryen loyalist - may have been at the Trident.

If any lords from the Reach were there and they did not just send some knights and levies.

Actually, I just realized that Mathis Rowan was at Storm's End with Mace, because apparently, it three lords are needed to lay siege to a castle (Catelyn IV, ACoK 33). He talks about not remembering Stannis flinging people from the walls and that he would have remembered if that had been the case.

So that leaves Randyll Tarly. 

It's interesting that there is a repeat of history going on here. 

[Lord Varys]

16 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

So that leaves Randyll Tarly. 

It's interesting that there is a repeat of history going on here. 

Well, Tarly was definitely at Ashford, so chances are very high he, too, accompanied Mace to Storm's End.

I recall tossing around the idea that some of the Lords of the northern Reach and their knights and levies may have been at the Trident, men who were not part of Mace Tyrell's army crushing Robert at Ashford.

But as I said - there were Crownlanders, Riverlanders, and Dornishmen at the Trident. For all we know Rhaegar could have had 25,000 men from the Riverlands and the Crownlands, leaving only about 5,000 Reach men to get to the about 40,000 the Targaryens had at the Trident.

[Lost Melnibonean]

3 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Why wouldn't I assume they might have been there? Isn't everything in this thread people assuming things?

It's war. Wouldn't Mace at the very least want his most capable soldier to fight at the big battle while he sat his ass at a siege?

I was wondering whether you had seen some hint or something to suggest they were there. 

[Lord of Oldstones]

Lord Rowan isn’t left out from other prominent Reach powers in terms of marital connections.He is married to Bethany Redwyne,who is probably Olenna’s  or Paxter’s sister.And there is Rhonda Rowan married to Baelor Hightower.Its just that Tarly is better commander and Redwyne owns largest fleet in whole of Westeros.

 

 

 

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[Alexis-something-Rose]

47 minutes ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

I was wondering whether you had seen some hint or something to suggest they were there. 

I did correct my earlier assumption when I remembered him stating that he was in fact at the siege of Storm's End. Usually if I see a hint of something I'll put down the quote.

But it does make things interesting with the character.

When Ned went to Storm's End, Mace and his lords dipped their banners and bent the knee.

His decision will be an interesting one.

But I have wondered what was Mace planning on doing by staying at Storm's End after the Battle of the Trident was lost, after King's Landing was sacked, after Aerys was killed. Were they not getting news of what was happening? It's not like Storm's End is all that far away from King's Landing. Or were they just waiting for someone to come lift the siege so that they could say that they followed orders?

[Endymion I Targaryen]

Mathis is the most possible to jump to Aegon's side. He got the less reward comparing to Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly, he is a Targaryen loyalist and the Lannister-Tyrell alliance is falling apart.

Whatever doubts he has about Aegon's identity will be removed when he sees Arianne (Elia's niece) supporting Aegon. Given the Winds sample chapter 

Spoiler

Aegon has taken Storm's End so he seems the winning side now.