US Politics: Donnie and the Mystery of the Anonymous Op-Ed

[IheartIheartTesla]

The House forecast is looking good for the Democrats right now - maybe too good. I worry that we have peaked too soon, and the next two months will be a long, dreary, painful regression to the mean where the outcome is never certain and we inch towards the Democrats getting close but not getting an outright majority.  Or maybe it just gets better.

On the Senate side, I only hope Beto beats Cruz. In such a tough map for the Dems, that would take away some of the pain of a 51-49 or 50-50 split. Make it happen, Texans.

[IheartIheartTesla]

By the way, I had to google this whole Thomas the Tank engine kerfuffle with the NRA and their Ku Klux Klan inspired response, because it just seemed so inane....and its true, all of it. Goddamn conservative NRA snowflakes triggered by small token efforts towards diversity...particularly by a big corporation (not the government)

[Zorral]

This is interesting, regarding the NY Dem primary for governor yesterday -- voter turnout:

https://newrepublic.com/minutes/151234/cynthia-nixon-loses-wins

Quote

Nearly three times as many voters showed up to the polls in 2018 (1,455,028)as against the last gubernatorial primaries in 2014 (574,260). Because of the huge turnout, Nixon actually got 100,00 more votes this year than Cuomo got in the last primary he won in 2014.

 

[Maithanet]

21 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

The House forecast is looking good for the Democrats right now - maybe too good. I worry that we have peaked too soon, and the next two months will be a long, dreary, painful regression to the mean where the outcome is never certain and we inch towards the Democrats getting close but not getting an outright majority.  Or maybe it just gets better.

On the Senate side, I only hope Beto beats Cruz. In such a tough map for the Dems, that would take away some of the pain of a 51-49 or 50-50 split. Make it happen, Texans.

Anything is possible, but it's hard to see why that scenario would be particularly likely.  Generally the overall picture from 8 weeks out is pretty clear, and based on the small sample size of recent wave elections, the party trying to hold back the tide only finds new problems in seats that previously were considered reasonably safe. 

In addition, Trump is almost uniquely unsuited to help other Republicans win elections.  Everything has to be Trump Trump Trump all the time, which sucks the oxygen out of the room for Republicans who want to talk about low unemployment, rising wages and border security.  The message "vote for Republicans to protect me from oversight" is really unpopular, even with many Republicans. 

I'm not counting my chickens just yet, but I think that Republicans righting the ship and pulling the House odds to anything near 50/50 before election day seems unlikely.  I'm more worried about the generic ballot going down (slightly), Republicans are ~25% of so to win the House, and then on election day the breaks go their way and they somehow only lose 20 seats and cling to the tiniest of majorities.  Because if the next Congress is run by Republicans, it will be even more beholden to Trump than the last one. 

[Martell Spy]

A Sexual-Misconduct Allegation Against the Supreme Court Nominee Brett Kavanaugh Stirs Tension Among Democrats in Congress

https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/a-sexual-misconduct-allegation-against-the-supreme-court-nominee-brett-kavanaugh-stirs-tension-among-democrats-in-congress

Quote

On Thursday, Senate Democrats disclosed that they had referred a complaint regarding President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Judge Brett Kavanaugh, to the F.B.I. for investigation. The complaint came from a woman who accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct when they were both in high school, more than thirty years ago.

 

[lokisnow]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

The House forecast is looking good for the Democrats right now - maybe too good. I worry that we have peaked too soon, and the next two months will be a long, dreary, painful regression to the mean where the outcome is never certain and we inch towards the Democrats getting close but not getting an outright majority.  Or maybe it just gets better.

On the Senate side, I only hope Beto beats Cruz. In such a tough map for the Dems, that would take away some of the pain of a 51-49 or 50-50 split. Make it happen, Texans.

yup this is a fizzly wave that will turn out non existent. democrats won't win either chamber.

republicans are highly motivated to vote this midterm, vastly moreso than in 2006, and vastly moreso than the feckless democrats that created our current nightmare because they didn't vote in 2010 or 2014.

democrats will win about 12 seats in the house and republicans will have a great night and come out with about 54 senate seats.

 

[lokisnow]

So Grassley had a letter signed by 65 of Kavanaugh's republican indoctrination camp prep school classmates ready to go and immediately released it (Gorsuch is also a graduate of this indoctrination cult). That means republicans knew about this sexual assault allegation and were ready and waiting for it to come out.

And it means that Feinstein is utterly complicit with Grassley and is working to get Kavanaugh confirmed because she sat on the letter until it was too late and then Feinstein cynically released it into a weekend/hurricane newscycle to help to bury the story.

with friends like Feinstein, who needs republicans?

[S John]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

The House forecast is looking good for the Democrats right now - maybe too good. I worry that we have peaked too soon, and the next two months will be a long, dreary, painful regression to the mean where the outcome is never certain and we inch towards the Democrats getting close but not getting an outright majority.  Or maybe it just gets better.

On the Senate side, I only hope Beto beats Cruz. In such a tough map for the Dems, that would take away some of the pain of a 51-49 or 50-50 split. Make it happen, Texans.

I think it'll be alright as long as enthusiasm remains high and I do think there are a lot of people who don't want an unrestrained Trump.  Maybe fatigue is starting to set in.  Is Trump's base still as riled up as they were in 2016?  Are they as riled up as everyone else is against Trump?  I don't think so, but we'll see.

I'm curious to see, if the Dems win the House, if that will be the thing that pushes some of these Republicans who supposedly loathe Trump behind closed doors into more active resistance.  If you hate the guy but you are getting the things you want policy-wise you might hedge your bets for 2 years while your party controls everything.  But once the other party has control of part of the legislature until the next presidential election you can say goodbye to major legislative victories, and perhaps you don't have to sit on your hands when it comes to the president anymore - and also maybe you fear which way the political wind is blowing.  I know it's asking a lot for R's to grow a spine, but it's one of the things I'm looking for if the Dems manage to take the House.

[Zorral]

10 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

So Grassley had a letter signed by 65 of Kavanaugh's republican indoctrination camp prep school classmates ready to go and immediately released it (Gorsuch is also a graduate of this indoctrination cult). That means republicans knew about this sexual assault allegation and were ready and waiting for it to come out.

And it means that Feinstein is utterly complicit with Grassley and is working to get Kavanaugh confirmed because she sat on the letter until it was too late and then Feinstein cynically released it into a weekend/hurricane newscycle to help to bury the story.

with friends like Feinstein, who needs republicans?

Feinstein must go!  Why make this stupid move if she's not complicit?  Because what they should be hitting on 100% of the time is that Kavanaugh has lied more than once under oath.  

[Zorral]

2 minutes ago, S John said:

I think it'll be alright as long as enthusiasm remains high and I do think there are a lot of people who don't want an unrestrained Trump.  Maybe fatigue is starting to set in.  Is Trump's base still as riled up as they were in 2016?  Are they as riled up as everyone else is against Trump?  I don't think so, but we'll see.

I'm curious to see, if the Dems win the House, if that will be the thing that pushes some of these Republicans who supposedly loathe Trump behind closed doors into more active resistance.  If you hate the guy but you are getting the things you want policy-wise you might hedge your bets for 2 years while your party controls everything.  But once the other party has control of part of the legislature until the next presidential election you can say goodbye to major legislative victories, and perhaps you don't have to sit on your hands when it comes to the president anymore - and also maybe you fear which way the political wind is blowing.  I know it's asking a lot for R's to grow a spine, but it's one of the things I'm looking for if the Dems manage to take the House.

By odd coincidence last night I received a catch-up phone call from someone in North Dakota, who spends winters in AZ.

We have been dropping out of contact because, as the POTUS election campaign went on, this person revealed, for the first time in all the years we'd been friends, both racism, and contempt for the poor.  Also a great deal contempt and blame was being cast on other women, always blaming the wife and mother for all her problems, but never the men who just walk off from the families they created -- and even pressured the women into having -- yet, somehow all the blame according to this friend accrues to the woman.  This person never used to be like this -- at least in my company -- until the orange nazi emerged.

There was shock and incomprehension on that side of the phone when I revealed that I disagreed, and vehemently -- and also believe there is such a thing as climate change.  The true shock came in after a long rant about women having no jobs, children by six different men (and no, not black at this point, because these are women standing begging by the side of the street, and the population there is all white), and have cell phones and nail jobs.  My response was why could men who insist they can't afford child support or to have a family, keep getting the women pregnant and have multiple very expensive guns and drive nice trucks?

It's clear this old friend of the past never hears any opinion other than those opposite from mine.  We remained friendly but I have no interest in ever being in company with this person again.  The racism and contempt for the poor literally made me so sick to my stomach I just sat thinking and doing nothing after we signed off.

So those people who support him?  They ain't moving, not one bit.  And they're damned ignorant and mean.  I never thought of 'mean' in connection with this person before. But if not before, mean has taken over now.

[Maithanet]

28 minutes ago, S John said:

I'm curious to see, if the Dems win the House, if that will be the thing that pushes some of these Republicans who supposedly loathe Trump behind closed doors into more active resistance.  If you hate the guy but you are getting the things you want policy-wise you might hedge your bets for 2 years while your party controls everything.  But once the other party has control of part of the legislature until the next presidential election you can say goodbye to major legislative victories, and perhaps you don't have to sit on your hands when it comes to the president anymore - and also maybe you fear which way the political wind is blowing.  I know it's asking a lot for R's to grow a spine, but it's one of the things I'm looking for if the Dems manage to take the House.

Republicans in Congress won't stand up to Trump unless Trump's popularity with Republican primary voters falls apart.  I don't expect that to happen even if Republicans take a shellacking in 2018, because introspection is not the Republican way.  Right now Trump can give the Kiss of Death to any Republican officeholder by endorsing a primary opponent, and they all know it. 

I fully expect that regardless of how the 2018 elections go, the Republican congress will be more, rather than less, subservient to Trump than what we've seen thus far.  We all complain that Senators like Flake and McCain and Representatives like Comstock and Fitzpatrick often tut-tut at Trump's transgressions, they never actually DO anything.  Well a good portion of those alleged "moderates" are going to be gone after 2018, replaced with either Democrats or Trumpists.  Either way, those Republicans that remain will be more spineless than ever. 

EDIT: Removed typo

[lokisnow]

donnie imposed his 200 billion in tariffs on china.

from the recent apple announcement, I saw that china makes $8 on every smart phone and all the global smart phone manufacturing is in china and no one can scale up to a comparable level of smartphone manufacturing without years building out factories.

So why not just retaliate on smart phones? a hundred dollar tariff per phone? why not make $108 on every smart phone? westerners will still pay for their overpriced buttonless fruit phones, so it probably wouldn't impinge manufacturing in any way.

but if you wanted to kill the tariffs, just levy a $1000 per phone tariff on every phone. now westerners probably can't get their phones and not having phones makes westerners all angry and they then try to get washington to lift the tariffs.

if its not happening fast enough, make it $2000 per phone tariff to really get the consumer pressure and rage levied at washington.

I mean this seems easy to defeat, people cannot survive without their smartphone, so go after the object people treasure more than their children, and they'll quickly do the work of undoing the tariffs for you to protect their precious.

[Corvinus85]

3 hours ago, Morpheus said:

A hunt in which the witches voluntarily drown themselves.

Silly duck, witches float.

[Morpheus]

 

5 minutes ago, Corvinus said:

Silly duck, witches float.

I saw my error but was already quoted 

[Morpheus]

Michael Cohen is  also talking with Mueller though it is unclear what could come of it

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/09/michael-cohen-mueller

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

This person never used to be like this -- at least in my company -- until the orange nazi emerged.

And this is the crux of the direction of our country: how do we put Trumpism back in its bottle after he’s gone?

1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Republicans in Congress won't stand up to Trump unless Trump's popularity with Republican primary voters falls apart.  I don't expect that to happen even if Republicans take a shellacking in 2018, because introspection is not the Republican way.  Right now Trump can give the Kiss of Death to any Republican officeholder by endorsing a primary opponent, and they all know it. 

I fully expect that regardless of how the 2018 elections go, the Republican congress will be more, rather than less, subservient to Trump than what we've seen thus far.  We all complain that Senators like Flake and McCain and Representatives like Comstock and Fitzpatrick often tut-tut at Trump's transgressions, they never actually DO anything.  Well a good portion of those alleged "moderates" are going to be gone after 2018, replaced with either Democrats or Trumpists.  Either way, those Republicans that remain will be more spineless than ever. 

EDIT: Removed typo

This. Times a thousand. Well Said.

[Zorral]

Manafort played the White House?  Josh Marshall thinks so:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/paulie-runs-one-last-disinformation-op-against-trump

 

Quote

The really relevant point wasn’t news media coverage per se. It was what the President and his lawyers knew. It seems pretty clear they were duped too. They did not see it coming. There were many bad things that could have happened if this were telegraphed far in advance, as Michael Cohen – with a very different set of facts – was doing. In the end, Trump was like Tony in the final episode of The Sopranos. He never saw it coming.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

5 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Update:  Prosecutor has announced Manafort is now cooperating with Robert Mueller. 

  I didn't expect that.  Perhaps the pardon wasn't going to solve all his problems after all?

Yep, I was also surprised.

I thought the prospect of a "London Litvinenko on the rocks" was enough to scare him to never work with Mueller. Seriously, I didn't think he wouldn't cooperate because of some pardon, but rather out of fear that the guys from the FSB would off him.

[Guest]

59 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Manafort played the White House?  Josh Marshall thinks so:

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/paulie-runs-one-last-disinformation-op-against-trump

 

 

"Et tu Paulie?"

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

So in today's Fox News isn't actually news post, I found their online headline a bit shocking. When you Google "Trump" under the news section, normal news sources like, NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN, BBC, The Hill, The Guardian, and so many more are all talking about the same things, Hurricane Floyd, Trump's comments on Puerto Rico, Manafort flipping, the midterms, Trump's polling and the economy. Fox News, OTOH, is religiously covering the real major story of the day: Jemele Hill and ESPN part ways. That's what you get from Fox when Google Trump's name. For those who don't know who she is, Hill is an outspoken black woman who used her platform to go after Trump, and it's pretty telling why Fox is covering this nothing story when there are major events taking place.