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A dark horse for the perfumed seneschal

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2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Varys and Illyrio are however pragmatic people and they see the advantage of Dany and her dragons for Aegon's conquest and legitimacy. So, they need her... now, however...

Dany needs them if she wants a Targaryen restoration with a male "Targ." I dont think he marries Arienne. I think he may crush on her but its important for Aegon to be willing to offer marriage to Dany, because Jon wouldn't.

I don't see Varys and Illyrio going against her until she shoots first.

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On 10/15/2018 at 6:50 PM, Keep Shelly in Athens said:
On 10/13/2018 at 6:33 PM, Megorova said:

I think, that Quaithe's warning about those people, is a reference to Dany's time still in Essos, so Jon and Varys could be crossed out of that list.

 

On 10/13/2018 at 12:58 AM, Kandrax said:

Also, Quaithe's prophecy isn't 100% correct because griffin and mummer's dragon(unless you believe that he is Tattered) aren't coming to her.

What is the evidence that it's only about her time in Essos or Meereen, so some people can be crossed off? Is that wise? Crossing off people and letting down her guard just because she meets them under different circumstances? 

That prophecy, about Dany's future visitors, wasn't based on some kind of premonition ability, or ability to predict future, it was result of Quaithe's observations thru usage of glass candle. At the time, when Quaithe gave that warning to Dany, all those people were intending to go to Dany. At that time Tyrion was with JonCon and fAegon. So that prediction indeed was only about Dany's time in Essos. And presence of griffin and mummer's dragon in that warning at that time, is a prove, that it was a warning based on current information of that time, and not an actual prediction, of what will happen in the future.

Quaithe's other prophecy, the one about going east to reach west, was indeed a real prophecy, based on Quiathe's dragondreams (because she is one of dragonseeds - Shiera Seastar, so the same as Daenys the Dreamer, and Daemon the Drunkard Targaryen, Shiera/Quaithe can actually predict future. Which doesn't mean, that all her warnings are actual prophecies, and not based on her knowledge, gained thru glass candle spying technology.

Thus perfumed seneschal is definitely someone in Essos. Furthermore, at that time the ship with the same name wasn't going to sail to Meereen. Thus we can cross out the possibility, that in her warning about perfumed seneschal, Quaithe meant that ship, or anyone who may come to Dany by that ship.

And that leaves only Illyrio.

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4 hours ago, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

Dany needs them if she wants a Targaryen restoration with a male "Targ." I dont think he marries Arienne. I think he may crush on her but its important for Aegon to be willing to offer marriage to Dany, because Jon wouldn't.

I don't see Varys and Illyrio going against her until she shoots first.

Daenerys doesn't need a specific male for her Targaryen Restoration.  She is the head of the dragon, the most important among all of the dragons, and therefore, whoever she marries, will simply be a consort.  The children will carry the Targaryen name.  Or whatever name she chooses for them to carry.  She can choose Zo Loraq if she wants to.  

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On 10/12/2018 at 5:30 PM, Lady Barbrey said:

Nicely argued and perhaps another dark horse as you say.

This post also made me refocus on Quaithe, in light of Aaron's dying words about a sphinx - that the riddler not the riddle is important.  Because if anyone in the series can be construed as a riddler, that's Quaithe.

But then we have Alleras the Sphinx, Sarella Sand, who seems to have been connected to dying Aemon in some way, because she actually echoes a number of his words about unlit candles and unmatched eggs.  She appears to have been reading flames or has some kind of seer-like ability.  Sarella has been involved in some sort of "Great Game" of her own, according to Doran.

I guess I'm wondering if Sarella and Quaithe could be the same person, or somehow related to each other, given their descriptions as 'sphinxes/riddlers'. 

Anyway, I'm off on a tangent, but thank you for giving me something else to ponder with your own theory and a new line of inquiry for myself!  I will have to re-read the relevant sections and see if this has already been hashed out on the forums previously.

I have posited this before. The main issue is timeline and travel. But I am intrigued by this as well

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I don't think Jon is the perfumed seneschal (although I do think it quite likely Jon and Daenerys eventually come into conflict) mentioned in that passage. Prophetic riddles are written into this story as a clue to what is likely to happen. They can be tricky to figure out, but once you see the result it is meant to be a good fit. I don't feel the description of perfumed seneschal is a good fit as a description for Jon, rather it is a stretch and fits significantly worse than every other instance in that passage. If it was Jon it could be so much better, alluding to wolf or dragon or king hiding etc. Further I don't think Varys is named by "the mummer's dragon".  That is one person, young Griff. And I would say he is more Illyrio's than Varys's. 

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10 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Illyrio is anything but pro-Dany, he is hands-full behind Aegon's conspiracy. Varys and Illyrio are however pragmatic people and they see the advantage of Dany and her dragons for Aegon's conquest and legitimacy. So, they need her... now, however...

 

Once Aegon sits in the IT and marries Arianne (most likely), the mere existence of someone called Daenerys Targaryen is a threat to Aegon reign, more so if she has dragons and is rallying huge Esssosi armies behind her cause. So, that speculation is probably quite spot on. But, it won't be the only thing they will try against her.

  So, my conclusion is that the perfumed seneschal is Illyrio.

 

 

 

I concur that it's Illyrio, although I'd say that he is the steward for the Blackfyre Restoration. It also makes the most sense thematically as the last one on the list that gets the most warnings: He helped sell her to Khal Drogo as part of a plot for propping up Aegon, and later confesses that he was expecting that she would die in the process. He offered three ships to her reluctantly once he found out about the dragons. With Aegon in Westeros and Dany now a threat, he's once again no longer on her side. Plus, every other character warned about has reached Daenerys or is shortly on their way. Illyrio in Pentos (and Ser Barristan seems to be aiming her armies towards there) would be the last stop before arriving at Westeros.

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I also seriously don't think it's the ship, but that the reference is just a deliberate joke by GRRM to get people speculating. Several of the people on the ship are already referenced, the ship sinks before arriving to her, and it's just an object. That's like Ned Stark receiving a warning about not trusting the Eunuch, the Lioness, the Butcher's Son, the Mockingbird, the Son/Nephew, and above all else, watch out for the Kingsroad.

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It's neat, the  Wolf howl in the distance.   Jon is nice and would accept the role of perfumed seneschal if you asked him politely and told him it was for a good cause.   (Propping up the lives of millions of readers! )     

 

 why he will be perfumed, though, is a bit of a snag.   Let's say it's because he comes back from the dead a bit stinky.    Tiny bit of rot.   No more than the average case of athlete's foot.   Only it's on his back, in place of the usual objectionable backhair he'll have a patch of stink rot.   Cover it with some potpourri and you're good to go.  Now one just has to make him a seneschal, which- -

[Lunch time]

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6 hours ago, Widowmaker 811 said:

Daenerys doesn't need a specific male for her Targaryen Restoration.  She is the head of the dragon, the most important among all of the dragons, and therefore, whoever she marries, will simply be a consort.  The children will carry the Targaryen name.  Or whatever name she chooses for them to carry.  She can choose Zo Loraq if she wants to.  

I'm talking about a very specific version of the restoration that revives the Targaryen practice of incest. So it depends on if she values keeping the "blood of the dragon" pure if presented with the opportunity. I think she would try to achieve this with Jon, but he's not raised that way and I dont think he would enjoy being a consort.

 

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11 hours ago, Lluewhyn said:

I also seriously don't think it's the ship, but that the reference is just a deliberate joke by GRRM to get people speculating. Several of the people on the ship are already referenced, the ship sinks before arriving to her, and it's just an object. That's like Ned Stark receiving a warning about not trusting the Eunuch, the Lioness, the Butcher's Son, the Mockingbird, the Son/Nephew, and above all else, watch out for the Kingsroad.

The ship's name is there to give us a hint about how things can be lost in translation (we got some of this in AFFC with Aemon and TPTWP), so what Quaithe likely saw/heard with her glass candle (?) was the Valyrian words "Selaesori Qhoran" which Moqorro kindly translated to us as perfumed/fragrant steward/magister/seneschal and Tyrion jokes with "stinky" (another hint).  The ship's name is just GRRM teasing us.

I wonder what (if any) the translation problems would mean for "the Valonqar".

 

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On 10/15/2018 at 11:50 AM, Keep Shelly in Athens said:

I kind of see it the same as the grey girl prophecy, because that's how it comes across to Dany - as a future event, one of which came true (the sun's son) - but with a warning attached.

Huge difference in the way Daenerys handled the prophecy compared to Jon.  Daenerys handled the situation better.  Jon jumped the gun and ended up betraying the watch over the vision given to him over the grey girl on a dying horse.  Daenerys has better judgment than Jon and Qaithe is better than Mellissandre.  

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If this was an A-Team episode where stuff blows up, maybe the Perfumed Ship was destined to arrive in Daenerys' ports, but then Quaithe put her on guard against the passengers of that ship, so somebody with the power to magically scuttle the ship decided to call down the waves on it so it never got to port, so Daenerys could once again be caught off guard by her Perfumed Seneschal buddy Moqorro, who just hung out in the ocean for a while after his ship blew up until he got "saved" by amazing coincidence.  No harm Mo foul.

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2 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Huge difference in the way Daenerys handled the prophecy compared to Jon.  Daenerys handled the situation better.  Jon jumped the gun and ended up betraying the watch over the vision given to him over the grey girl on a dying horse.  Daenerys has better judgment than Jon and Qaithe is better than Mellissandre.  

I'm not entirely sure what you mean. Jon's actions in terms of his intention to lead the wildlings down upon the Bolton's had nothing to do with prophecy or visions. It was because he received a letter from a sadistic psychopath that led him to believe Arya was somewhere out in the wilderness.

Unless you mean he ignored the visions when he should have done something else?

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4 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Huge difference in the way Daenerys handled the prophecy compared to Jon.  Daenerys handled the situation better.  Jon jumped the gun and ended up betraying the watch over the vision given to him over the grey girl on a dying horse.  Daenerys has better judgment than Jon and Qaithe is better than Mellissandre.  

I wouldn’t classify Mel’s words as prophecy’s. It doesn’t help that she can’t even properly comprehend what she sees in the flames also.  Jon didn’t really betray the NW because of her vision, Jon sent Mance out to to find “Arya” where Mel said she would be and Mance ended up going off on his own volition. 

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14 hours ago, Here's Looking At You, Kid said:

Huge difference in the way Daenerys handled the prophecy compared to Jon.  Daenerys handled the situation better.  Jon jumped the gun and ended up betraying the watch over the vision given to him over the grey girl on a dying horse.  Daenerys has better judgment than Jon and Qaithe is better than Mellissandre.  

Two completely different things. Qaithe’s prophesy is basically a riddle, which Dany can just chew over but not act with any certainty on. Mel’s vision (not prophesy) is of a girl on a horse, and Jon suspects it’s Arya. Even though Melisandre’s visions often turn out to be not what you’d think, it would be remiss of Jon not to investigate it.

I don’t think the more sensible reaction would be for Jon to go, “Girl on a horse eh? Could be Arya, could not. Anyway, I won’t jump the gun, in case it’s not her. Best wait and see.”

And it wasn’t an act of betrayal. Did Jon betray the Nights Watch by sending Aemon and Mance’s son away? Or did Yoren by helping Arya? Just because they vow to take no part in conflicts in the realm, it doesn’t mean that they vow never to help vulnerable people in trouble.

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