What led Brandon to believe Rhaegar would be at the Red Keep?

[The Map Guy]

...just going back to OP, sorry to interrupt

 

Have you guys ever consider the Brandon/Ashara rumors playing a factor here?

What if Brandon was the 'Stark' that dishonored Ashara at the Tourney?

He knew Ashara was at King's Landing as Elia Martell's companions, perhaps it may be another reason for him to go to KL.

Perhaps Ashara was at the Red Keep when Brandon was puffing his chest trying to show off, announcing to everyone in the room and to the world that he has the balls to confront Rhaegar.

After showing off, Brandon hoped to get an answer to Lyanna's whereabouts, and leave King's Landing to go fetch his sister.

But before he leaves, he plans to sleep with Ashara one more time before he goes back to his wedding to Catelyn. (Catelyn is not a hottie like Ashara)

Unfortunately, he never thought he would get arrested for his stint at the Red Keep....hot wolf blood.

[Bael's Bastard]

2 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

...just going back to OP, sorry to interrupt

@The Map Guy

Thanks for commenting, nothing to be sorry about.

6 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

Have you guys ever consider the Brandon/Ashara rumors playing a factor here?

What if Brandon was the 'Stark' that dishonored Ashara at the Tourney?

In ADWD: The Kingbreaker, Barristan Selmy's POV narrator states:

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

So Barristan believes:

     1. Ashara was "dishonored" by a man at Harrenhal
     2. Ashara "looked to" a Stark after Rhaegar defeated Barristan and crowned Lyanna the Queen of Love and Beauty

But what we don't know is:

     1. If Barristan thinks Ashara was "dishonored" by and "looked to" the same person, or two different people
     2. If the man Barristan thinks "dishonored" Ashara was Brandon
     3. If Ashara actually was "dishonored," and if so, if the person who "dishonored" Ashara actually was Brandon
     4. If the Stark Barristan thinks Ashara "looked to" was Brandon
     5. If Ashara actually did "look to" a Stark, and if so, if the Stark Ashara "looked to" actually was Brandon

The statement by Barristan's POV narrator raises a lot of questions and possibilities, but doesn't give us clear answers.

Was Ashara ever pregnant? Was Brandon the father? Did Brandon "dishonor" Ashara at Harrenhal, or have any sexual relationship with Ashara at any time? Was Brandon the Stark Ashara "turned to"? Maybe yes to all. Maybe no to all. Maybe yes to some and no to some.

38 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

He knew Ashara was at King's Landing as Elia Martell's companions, perhaps it may be another reason for him to go to KL.

But Brandon didn't know that Ashara was at King's Landing.

Because Elia lived on Dragonstone with her husband Rhaegar, where they had taken up residency after their wedding in 280 AC.

Quote

When Prince Rhaegar and his new wife chose to take up residence on Dragonstone instead of the Red Keep, rumors flew thick and fast across the Seven Kingdoms. Some claimed that the crown prince was planning to depose his father and seize the Iron Throne for himself, whilst others said that King Aerys meant to disinherit Rhaegar and name Viserys heir in his place. Nor did the birth of King Aerys's first grandchild, a girl named Rhaenys, born on Dragonstone in 280 AC, do aught to reconcile father and son. When Prince Rhaegar returned to the Red Keep to present his daughter to his own mother and father, Queen Rhaella embraced the babe warmly, but King Aerys refused to touch or hold the child and complained that she "smells Dornish." (TWOIAF: Aerys II)

And Elia was on Dragonstone with her newborn baby Aegon at the coming of the year 282 AC, when Rhaegar set off on the journey on which he would abduct Lyanna.

Quote

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides. (TWOIAF: The Year of the False Spring)

So whether or not Ashara was ever actually in King's Landing after the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, Brandon had no reason to just assume that either Rhaegar, who lived on Dragonstone, or Ashara, who was companion to Elia, who lived on Dragonstone with her husband, would be there after Rhaegar abducted Lyanna. There must be some information he received to make him assume, as he does, that Rhaegar is in the Red Keep.

55 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

Perhaps Ashara was at the Red Keep when Brandon was puffing his chest trying to show off, announcing to everyone in the room and to the world that he has the balls to confront Rhaegar.

After showing off, Brandon hoped to get an answer to Lyanna's whereabouts, and leave King's Landing to go fetch his sister.

But before he leaves, he plans to sleep with Ashara one more time before he goes back to his wedding to Catelyn. (Catelyn is not a hottie like Ashara)

Unfortunately, he never thought he would get arrested for his stint at the Red Keep....hot wolf blood.

Brandon assumes Rhaegar is at the Red Keep, which indicates he believes Lyanna to be there. The problem is, these assumptions don't make sense, and there's no reason Brandon would have made them without more information. Therefore, he must have been told something by someone to lead him to believe that Rhaegar was going to the Red Keep. 

Not sure where the Ashara stuff is coming from, but there is no indication she was in King's Landing when Brandon was there, and no reason for Brandon to have assume she was there. And as of yet, we have nothing between Brandon and Ashara except Brandon asking her to dance with Ned. No proof of a sexual relation, not to say there won't turn out to have been one.

[SFDanny]

13 hours ago, Ygrain said:

If she travelled officially and not Alys Karstark style, then she certainly would have been accompanied, but even so: the parallels with Ned's journey south and the complete mess it was still offers plenty of opportunity.

I agree. There is certainly the possibility that Lyanna has runaway before Rhaegar finds her. I find it unlikely, not because she isn't independent and willful and willing to take risks that other highborn women would not, but because of her history at Harrenhal. She travels there with her three brothers and likely with Winterfell retainers as well. They all know the events there and the interest shown her by Rhaegar, and the brothers, at least, likely know her own feelings in the matter. Lyanna does not seem the person to be unable to speak her mind or to just be silent and take whatever her father and  brothers tell her to do.

As such, I think it highly unlikely Lyanna would be allowed to travel unaccompanied if there is anything the brothers could do about it. She is pledged to Robert, and it is their duty that she is protected and delivered safely to her own marriage a maiden. That doesn't mean the brothers would not wish to protect her regardless of her status, but a Stark's word is a honor bound promise to do as pledged.

I just don't see the likelihood that Lyanna wasn't traveling without escort with all of this history. Especially if the marriage to Robert is being moved up to take place shortly. To me, that means Winterfell guards, and a Septa Mordane-like figure to travel with her wherever she goes. Perhaps others including young women of her own age. I think this is what we should expect.

13 hours ago, Ygrain said:

However: the swordpoint version comes from Dany's chapters, hence has to be taken with a grain of salt as a potential romantic embellishment. It could even be a coverup protecting Lyanna's honour in case of mutual elopement, either as a rumour or a staged abduction. I think I have brought this up before - there is such a staged abduction in G.G. Kay's A Song for Arbonne. I'm not saying GRRM must have read, or taken inspiration from this, I'm merely pointing out that such a scenario is not out of realm of possibility.

It seems likely that Dany's version comes from Viserys. The Targaryen "official" view of history, if you will. That doesn't mean there isn't truth in it, but I agree all versions should be taken with a grain or two of salt. But because I find it highly likely Lyanna would be traveling with an escort, the "swordpoint" version of the abduction seems entirely logical to me. Nor is it in contradiction to Robert's own view that this was a "kidnapping." Both indicate at least the threat of force. The question is, of course, against whom? What I find fascinating in Dany's/Viserys's story is how this version is compared to a hoped for rescue from another unwanted marriage. Combined with other clues like Lyanna's word to Ned about Robert's "nature" and others, I think we have some strong hints this is a rescue from an upcoming marriage to Robert. 

About Martin borrowing from Kay, all I can say is he borrows from lots and lots of authors and history. It's possible. I will say I think Robert would think this a kidnapping and rape regardless of what Lyanna's views are on the subject. He makes it pretty clear that he thinks Lyanna was his, and that means Rhaegar's attentions to her are akin to a trespasser violating the landlord's rights, regardless of what Lyanna (aka his property) wanted

 Does disguising an elopement as a kidnapping help Lyanna in anyway? I don't know, but it sure doesn't help Rhaegar.

13 hours ago, Ygrain said:

ETA: @SFDanny, why do you think Lyanna might have been in the Vale? To my best knowledge, this is indicated nowhere in the text, and the fact that Ned and Robert are still in the Vale when the summons from Aerys come, IMHO, speaks against it. If Lyanna was in the Vale, those three would have been travelling for the wedding together and Lyanna snatched from under Robert's nose would have been something worth mentioning. Had that happened, I don't see how Robert could have been convinced not to pull a Brandon or something else similarly stupid. Also, I don't see why, in the aftermath of Lyanna's abduction, both of them would travel back to the Vale - with Brandon imprisoned and Rickard having to deal with this blow, Ned would have been instrumental in coordinating House Stark's powers, and a message to Jon Arryn could have been relayed via Robert alone.

There is too little to make anything sure here, but I'll gladly tell you why I think this the most likely scenario.

First, I don't think it at all likely that given House Whent's ties to Rhaegar that Lyanna would have been allowed to stay in Harrenhal after the tourney. It seems much more likely that given Rhaegar's declaration of his interest in Lyanna and therefore his opposition to her marriage to Robert that the Starks would do everything they can do to keep Lyanna away for Targaryen loyalists, especially Rhaegar loyalists. 

Second, It also seems to me the likely response of the Starks to the events in Harrenhal is to go to the Vale and communicate with both Jon Arryn and Lord Rickard. This would entail getting Benjen back to Winterfell ("there must always be a Stark in Winterfell") and beginning Lord Rickard's march south to Riverrun. The make up of Brandon's party to include both Elbert Arryn and Royce may be an indication of this. I also think Brandon's journey to Riverrun is part of the finalization of the marriage plans. Robert likely goes with the Starks to the Eyrie to make the joint response.

Third, I think that if Lyanna was traveling with her father and his 200 men, or if she was traveling with Robert, Brandon, or Ned there would be zero chance of a confrontation at "swordpoint" would come off peacefully. Yet we have no indication there is any blood shed. The app tells us that Rhaegar's party consists of himself, Ser Arthur, and Ser Oswell. Which tells me the Winterfell side had not the great overwhelming numbers of Lord Rickard's party or the hotheads of a party including Brandon or Robert.

This tells me that Lyanna was likely traveling to Riverrun from the Vale and escorted by what would normally be considered a party sufficient to deter outlaws and keep Lyanna's reputation intact. The reason she would be sent seems to be both to be part of the preparation of Brandon and Catelyn's wedding, and to possibly help plan her own.

Of course, none of this is certain. It is rather a process of looking at all the possibilities and weighing which I think is the most likely.

13 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Also, sorry but I'm currently unable to adress all the points I'd like to, and I don't know if and when this might be possible, so I apologize for the brevity.

I always enjoy reading your thoughts, Ygrain. No apologies are necessary. After eleven years on this forum I have grown to appreciate and enjoy well thought out discussion, and I can always count on you to bring such thoughts to the threads.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 10/30/2018 at 2:15 AM, wia said:

So it was a fake prophecy? O_o

Or Rhaegar interpreted incorrectly. At one time he believed that he himself was The Prince That Was Promised*, but then decided he was wrong and it was his son Aegon. If that really was Aegon's brains smashed by Gregor, then Rhaegar was wrong again.

*If I never encounter another chosen one narrative, it will be too late.

On 10/30/2018 at 1:56 PM, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't think that explains why Brandon appears to believe Rhaegar is at the Red Keep. I don't know Brandon's plan, but wounding Rhaegar's pride doesn't strike me as a likely reason for going to the Red Keep and threatening Rhaegar. It would be one thing if Brandon rode in there demanding to know where Rhaegar was, or calling for Aerys to summon Rhaegar. But the lone statement we have to go by indicates he believed Rhaegar was present at the Red Keep then and there.

The point isn't just to "wound Rhaegar's pride". It's to force a redress for an injustice by demanding satisfaction in as public a way as possible. This isn't a modern bureaucratic state that Max Weber would term "rational-legal", but instead one based on tradition & charismatic personalities, ruled by an elite warrior caste of nobility and with power depending on the loyalty granted by such nobles. Such an authority isn't viable when the heir of one of the most powerful noble families is publicly challenging the heir of the pre-eminent family right in the center of power over the violation of a patriarch's traditional authority over his children.

[bent branch]

On 10/31/2018 at 1:25 AM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

I doubt Rhaegar was happy that Aerys was using his wife and prophecy kids as hostages. At any rate Aerys most likely needed a Targaryen to fight in the war and lead the loyalist army at the Trident for the sake of morale and to not have the royal House look weak and divided. Even before the Trident Robert was fighting and winning all but one battle, gaining allies, glory and boosting his reputation as a leader. All while Rhaegar was missing in action and Aerys was punishing loyalist lords that were unlucky enough to be blamed for the Crown army defeats. Had the Crown won the war without Rhaegar ever being seen or heard from during the conflict it would look as if Rhaegar did not support his House or was too scared to fight for it. Aerys and Rhaegar were very much stuck with each other even if they didn't want to be because of how the whole rebellion started. Rhaegar can't call a council meeting and make changes until after the war was won as he told Jaime before he left.

Yes, I'm sure Rhaegar wasn't happy about Aerys using his wife and children as hostages. I didn't say that that Aerys and Rhaegar had a lovely relationship, I said they remained united about threats against the family.

[Ralphis Baratheon]

1 hour ago, bent branch said:

es, I'm sure Rhaegar wasn't happy about Aerys using his wife and children as hostages. I didn't say that that Aerys and Rhaegar had a lovely relationship, I said they remained united about threats against the family.

You said that them being at odds was only a rumor and their relationship was "intact but stormy" which is kind of vague. I believe their is evidence of them being at odds, with the Jaime quote from Rhaegar about councils and changes to be made for example. As I said before, because of how Robert's Rebellion went down they had little choice but to stand together as they were both seen as being responsible for acts that were deemed unjust by the rebels. It appears to me at least, they were united by circumstance more so than choice.

Also, Rhaegar had not been seen for most of the rebellion and all except one battle had already been fought. It's not like Rhaegar was standing by Aerys' side in KL the whole time strategizing the war as one would expect out of the Crown Prince, if he was not already off fighting in the war.  Finally as @SFDannyalluded to, Aerys taking Rhaegar's wife and children may have been used as leverage against Rhaegar as well as Dorne. 

 

[Ygrain]

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

What I find fascinating in Dany's/Viserys's story is how this version is compared to a hoped for rescue from another unwanted marriage. Combined with other clues like Lyanna's word to Ned about Robert's "nature" and others, I think we have some strong hints this is a rescue from an upcoming marriage to Robert. 

Yes, that's the way I'm reading it, as well. 

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Does disguising an elopement as a kidnapping help Lyanna in anyway? I don't know, but it sure doesn't help Rhaegar.

She would be perceived as blameless, and Rhaegar would take the blame on himself - he would place Lyanna's honour above his own. Which is what Robb does for Jeyne, regardless the personal cost to himself. We could even say, with similarly tragic consequences.

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

First, I don't think it at all likely that given House Whent's ties to Rhaegar that Lyanna would have been allowed to stay in Harrenhal after the tourney. It seems much more likely that given Rhaegar's declaration of his interest in Lyanna and therefore his opposition to her marriage to Robert that the Starks would do everything they can do to keep Lyanna away for Targaryen loyalists, especially Rhaegar loyalists. 

I agree that post-tourney, the Starks wouldn't be inclined to allow this. However, if Lyanna's stay had been arranged pre-tourney, cancelling the arrangement would mean, besides breaking a Stark word, implying that Lord Whent would be unable, or unwilling, to protect Lyanna's honour like his own daughter's. I think Lord When would be mightily offended. Would the Starks want to offend him like that? Could they even afford to? 

Not to mention, would Lyanna comply? Was there a way she coud be bodily dragged away without causing yet another scandal?

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Second, It also seems to me the likely response of the Starks to the events in Harrenhal is to go to the Vale and communicate with both Jon Arryn and Lord Rickard. This would entail getting Benjen back to Winterfell ("there must always be a Stark in Winterfell") and beginning Lord Rickard's march south to Riverrun. The make up of Brandon's party to include both Elbert Arryn and Royce may be an indication of this. I also think Brandon's journey to Riverrun is part of the finalization of the marriage plans. Robert likely goes with the Starks to the Eyrie to make the joint response.

I'm not sure I fully grasp what you have in mind here. Why do you think the HH events would require talking to Jon Arryn?

A good point about Ebert Arryn and Royce as Brandon's companions. How did they end up with him? Was Brandon visiting the Vale during Ned's time there, or did they become acquainted at HH? I find it hard to imagine that they would choose to accompany a guy that had only met.

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Third, I think that if Lyanna was traveling with her father and his 200 men, or if she was traveling with Robert, Brandon, or Ned there would be zero chance of a confrontation at "swordpoint" would come off peacefully. Yet we have no indication there is any blood shed. The app tells us that Rhaegar's party consists of himself, Ser Arthur, and Ser Oswell. Which tells me the Winterfell side had not the great overwhelming numbers of Lord Rickard's party or the hotheads of a party including Brandon or Robert.

Or they did not dare to engage the Crown Prince at swordpoint? But Robert was definitely absent, I agree.

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I always enjoy reading your thoughts, Ygrain. No apologies are necessary. After eleven years on this forum I have grown to appreciate and enjoy well thought out discussion, and I can always count on you to bring such thoughts to the threads.

You are always so nice

[wia]

16 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Or Rhaegar interpreted incorrectly. At one time he believed that he himself was The Prince That Was Promised*, but then decided he was wrong and it was his son Aegon. If that really was Aegon's brains smashed by Gregor, then Rhaegar was wrong again.

*If I never encounter another chosen one narrative, it will be too late.

The way I understood it is that there is a certain prophecy that goes roughly like this
There will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him.

And then a prophecy, made by a woods witch, which had been interpreted to mean that the prince that was promised would be born of the line of Aerys and Rhaella.

I don't see how any of that could be interpreted as 'go ahead and kidnap/elope with a Lord Paramount's daughter and ignore a war that you're losing 'cause your son is the prince that was promised and therefore you can't lose this war and he can't die no matter what and your daughter gets by because... well just because' no matter how you look at it, 

Unless there was a prophecy that mentioned something about wars that have to happen while the prince that was promised is a little baby, I don't see why would Rhaegar start one and be sure he'd win it it. Normally one would try to avoid wars and unite the kingdoms as much as possible to support their future hero son, would they not? And after already being wrong about the prophecy once, one would be careful of not being so very sure that they're right about it the second time.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On ‎10‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 11:54 AM, Bael's Bastard said:

It's not a logical place to look, as Rhaegar hadn't lived there for two years, and had a troubled relationship with Aerys. And we can be reasonably certain that Rhaegar wasn't there. He would have had no need to flee from KL, as there was no chance of Brandon and his little party, or even Rickard's elite but small group of 200 taking Rhaegar or the city. It is Jaime, not Aerys, that tells us that Brandon came to the Red Keep shouting for Rhaegar to come out and die. And he has no reason to lie about that at that point.

A funny visual, might make for a good mummers show, but has no resemblance to the events of the story we are reading.

OK ,Let's play a game we are pursuing Lyanna kidnappers and the only thing you know that the troop was flying the royal banner a three-headed red dragon. We know little about Aerys and Rhaegar 's issues , but we do know Rhaegar crowned Lyanna queen of love and beauty, and that Rhaegar is still his heir .So where do go first before the kidnappers slip away?

[FictionIsntReal]

12 hours ago, wia said:

The way I understood it is that there is a certain prophecy that goes roughly like this
There will come a day after a long summer when the stars bleed and the cold breath of darkness falls heavy on the world. In this dread hour a warrior shall draw from the fire a burning sword. And that sword shall be Lightbringer, the Red Sword of Heroes, and he who clasps it shall be Azor Ahai come again, and the darkness shall flee before him.

That prophecy doesn't mention a "prince" at all. The "prince that was promised" seems to be a Targaryen specific thing from a scroll we don't know about. Notice the Azor Ahai prophecy doesn't mention anything about three heads of a dragon.

[SFDanny]

On 11/2/2018 at 11:37 PM, Ygrain said:

Yes, that's the way I'm reading it, as well.

On 11/2/2018 at 11:37 PM, Ygrain said:

She would be perceived as blameless, and Rhaegar would take the blame on himself - he would place Lyanna's honour above his own. Which is what Robb does for Jeyne, regardless the personal cost to himself. We could even say, with similarly tragic consequences.

Blameless? Yes, but still regrettably "soiled." At least so without a marriage to the prince. Of course, that may have been the plan all along. The marriage could have taken place quite early after the "kidnapping." It just seems to me that if that's the case, we are missing a lot about how their relationship got to marriage. Of course, I'm just stating the obvious here. We ARE missing a lot of information on their relationship.

On 11/2/2018 at 11:37 PM, Ygrain said:

I agree that post-tourney, the Starks wouldn't be inclined to allow this. However, if Lyanna's stay had been arranged pre-tourney, cancelling the arrangement would mean, besides breaking a Stark word, implying that Lord Whent would be unable, or unwilling, to protect Lyanna's honour like his own daughter's. I think Lord When would be mightily offended. Would the Starks want to offend him like that? Could they even afford to?

Not to mention, would Lyanna comply? Was there a way she coud be bodily dragged away without causing yet another scandal?

A very valid point. But do we know of any ties to House Whent that would hint this is the case? We know Catelyn's mother is from House Whent, but it seems a feeble tie between them before Catelyn's marriage to Ned takes place. I could easily see Sansa sent to House Whent if they had not been a loyalist house during the rebellion. Lyanna being sent there seems much more unlikely, especially after the tourney. Still your point is well taken and it is a possibility.

On 11/2/2018 at 11:37 PM, Ygrain said:

I'm not sure I fully grasp what you have in mind here. Why do you think the HH events would require talking to Jon Arryn?

Because the heart of Lord Rickard's alliances start with Lord Jon. My read of the the events at Harrenhal put the Starks front and center of a confrontation with the royal house. The expansion of their alliances to include the Lannisters is exploded with Jaime's honoring by Aerys with his naming to be a member of the Kingsguard. The marriage pact between House Baratheon and the Starks is threatened by Rhaegar's naming of Lyanna his queen of love and beauty. In between we have a Stark (likely Brandon in my opinion) dishonoring one of the ladies in waiting to Princess Elia - who just happens to be the sister of Rhaegar's sworn shield and Kingsguard protector, and best friend. As I see it all Stark plans are challenged at Harrenhal and they are placed at odds with the royal house as a whole. That means to me, they have to consider the events and plans with their closest confidantes - starting with Jon Arryn. Or so I see it.

On 11/2/2018 at 11:37 PM, Ygrain said:

A good point about Ebert Arryn and Royce as Brandon's companions. How did they end up with him? Was Brandon visiting the Vale during Ned's time there, or did they become acquainted at HH? I find it hard to imagine that they would choose to accompany a guy that had only met.

It's not my point, but I think it important. The why of Elbert Arryn and Kyle Royce inclusion among Brandon's companions, and its ramifications, has been debated before the 11 years I've been here. I think it might have been @Ran who brought this up, but if not he can correct me. I also tend towards Steffan Stasse's idea that what we might be seeing in the party is more than friends and a squire, but friends who might have been foster brothers. Did Elbert and Kyle go north to foster with Brandon in Barrowton to be taught by House Dustin's famous veteran of the War of the Sevenpenny Kings? Or to Winterfell? I think it would make sense. It would explain why these men would follow Brandon to their deaths in King's Landing.

On 11/2/2018 at 11:37 PM, Ygrain said:

Or they did not dare to engage the Crown Prince at swordpoint? But Robert was definitely absent, I agree.

I think we also know Brandon wasn't present because Catelyn says he heard the news of Lyanna's abduction, not that he witnessed it.

Quote

"He was on his way to Riverrun when . . ." Strange, how telling it still made her throat grow tight, after all these years. ". . . when he heard about Lyanna, and went to King's Landing instead. (ACoK 599)

I highly doubt Ned was there or we would have had some indication of it in his thoughts in AGoT. And as I said, if Lyanna was traveling with her father and his 200 men, I don't think a confrontation at swordpoint would have ended with Rhaegar and his party leaving with Lyanna. Perhaps they could have snuck into camp and stole her before raising an alarm, but not if they were discovered.

Which makes me think Lyanna would most likely have been traveling under a much smaller escort of guards and companions when she meets up with Rhaegar's party.

On 11/2/2018 at 11:37 PM, Ygrain said:

You are always so nice

You are as well, but I have to say although I TRY to be nice, especially to those posters I respect for their informed opinions, but even there I have been less than nice on occasion. I think @Lord Varys can testify to my less than nice responses at times, although I like him and certainly respect him as well.

Anyway, I will try my best to not explode at the next thread that starts with calling Catelyn or Sansa horrible names. It is not always easy.

[wia]

3 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

That prophecy doesn't mention a "prince" at all. The "prince that was promised" seems to be a Targaryen specific thing from a scroll we don't know about. Notice the Azor Ahai prophecy doesn't mention anything about three heads of a dragon.

Well I figured that the point oif the prophecy would be the same no matter how you call the person, but whatever, I guess.
So that prophecy would've mentioned that Rhaegar needs to go and do stupid things then? - What a lovely scroll.

[bent branch]

On 10/31/2018 at 5:18 AM, SFDanny said:

I agree absolutely.

That's one hell of a rumor. It keeps coming up over, and over, and over again in the books. Martin tells us not all is well between Father and Son. No, I'm afraid this has gone well beyond rumor and has become the established fact. Rhaegar didn't admit to trying to call a council to jaime because he thought Aerys's rule was going along swimmingly. Yandel's description comparing the factional dispute between Aerys and Rhaegar to the time of the Dance of the Dragons kind of nails the coffin lid shut on all being well between father and son. And Rhaegar didn't hide where his father couldn't find him because he was supporting Aerys's actions. No, this doesn't pass the laugh test anymore, if it ever did.

What is true is that the relationship is not static. It changes over time. We do see periods where Father and Son work together. Periods where their interests in saving Targaryen rule align. Of course, @Ralphis Baratheon's point is also true. Holding Rhaegar's family hostage changes one's view of the closeness of Rhaegar and the king. I've long argued this is not just an act against Dorne, but is also the basis for which Rhaegar finally comes north to help with the war. Whatever the nature of Rhaegar's and Elia's relationship, the fact Aerys is willing to hold Rhaegar's children as hostages is a fundamental change in their relationship. You can't hold a knife to Rhaenys and Aegon's throats and not expect Rhaegar to finally understand the depths of Aerys's madness. Which is basically what Lord Jon tells us. 

Here we agree.

 

On 11/2/2018 at 10:19 PM, Ralphis Baratheon said:

You said that them being at odds was only a rumor and their relationship was "intact but stormy" which is kind of vague. I believe their is evidence of them being at odds, with the Jaime quote from Rhaegar about councils and changes to be made for example. As I said before, because of how Robert's Rebellion went down they had little choice but to stand together as they were both seen as being responsible for acts that were deemed unjust by the rebels. It appears to me at least, they were united by circumstance more so than choice.

Also, Rhaegar had not been seen for most of the rebellion and all except one battle had already been fought. It's not like Rhaegar was standing by Aerys' side in KL the whole time strategizing the war as one would expect out of the Crown Prince, if he was not already off fighting in the war.  Finally as @SFDannyalluded to, Aerys taking Rhaegar's wife and children may have been used as leverage against Rhaegar as well as Dorne. 

 

Rumors that the Crown Prince is conspiring to usurp the king is a common theme in stories. There are so many variables on the story that just because you heard one story doesn't mean you've heard them all. For instance, one variable in the story could be that it is true the Crown Prince is conspiring against the king or it could be a lie. Additionally, the king can believe or disbelieve the rumor. Another variation is that the rumor could have been started by someone friendly to the king, friendly to the prince or an enemy of both (someone who is a friend to both wouldn't be spreading stories of this type).  There are numerous other variables. Recently I finished watching a Chinese drama called "Nirvana in Fire" from 2015. The fulcrum upon which this story rests is a rumor that the crown prince intended to overthrow his father the Emperor. I want to compare these two stories to explain why I think Rhaegar wasn't conspiring against Aerys, why I think Aerys didn't believe Rhaegar was conspiring against him, and why I think the rumor was started by a third party (Tywin and Pycelle) hostile to the Targaryen Dynasty. I am not really trying to convince either of you, but hope only to make you understand why I think what I think. As a side issue it will also partially explains why I think Varys was loyal to both Aerys and Rhaegar. I am taking the rest of the post under spoiler tags in case anyone wants to watch "Nirvana in Fire".

Spoiler

 

The emperor in "Nirvana in Fire" had taken the throne from his father by force. This made the emperor very paranoid and he reacted with overkill to any perceived threat. Aerys would have seemed almost gentle next to this guy. However, the emperor was very careful about appearances, so he tried to keep his public persona as clean as possible. So the similarity between Aerys and the Emperor are that they are paranoid, their paranoia stems from an event in their lives, and they over react to perceived threats. The differences between them is that Aerys came to the throne peacefully and the Emperor didn't. Additionally, Aerys has lost the ability and/or willingness to see how his behavior was viewed publicly while the Emperor was extremely concerned about appearances.

The two crown princes are very similar in that they are very idealize versions of what a crown prince should be. Honest, intellegent, compassionate, etc. The biggest difference between them is that "Nirvana in Fire" spends no time talking about women swooning over the the crown prince.

So what action does Aerys take when he hears the rumors about Rhaegar? He hires Varys to help him figure out the truth of the rumors. From the actions that Aerys takes we can surmise that Varys had assuaged Aerys fears about Rhaegar, because there are no actions taken against Rhaegar. When Elia and the children are brought to KL it is clear that they are being held hostage against Dorne, not Rhaegar. This action that everyone agrees was not taken as a measure against Rhaegar is often used as proof Aerys doubts Rhaegar because no other proof exists. The emperor in "Nirvana in Fire" does believe the rumors about the crown prince. What actions does he take? First, he sends the 70,000 troops the crown prince commands to the border to respond to an issue there and after they are returning exhausted from the war, the emperor has two other military units attack them, burning them to death in their tents and killing anyone who tries to get away (it is this event from which the story gets its name). Once his son's potential military support is gone, the emperor then holds trials whereby the nobles and ministers who "support the crown prince's rebellion" are convicted and executed or put into slavery. The crown prince is convicted and the crown prince's family is put in slavery while the crown prince is ordered to drink poison. All of this is based on a forged letter attributed to one of the generals killed in the massacre. This is the reason I don't believe that Aerys believed Rhaegar was plotting against him. The wishy-washy evidence put forth to show that Aerys believed the stories against Rhaegar don't fit with an Aerys who was completely willing to take vicious and cruel action against anyone he perceived as his enemy, including his son.

In "Nirvana in Fire" the crown prince's innocence shows in the fact he had no defense against his father's actions, because he was not plotting anything. The crown prince's words before taking the poison was, "The father cannot see the son and the son cannot see the father." Of course this means his father couldn't see he would never rebel and he didn't see that his father could be that ruthless. Part of the reason I believe Rhaegar wasn't plotting against his father was that he hadn't done anything to protect himself or his family against any action that Aerys might take and this is why Elia and children end up in KL.

 

I really don't want to say too much about where the rumor about the crown prince comes from because that actually would spoil too much if someone wants to watch "Nirvana in Fire". I will say that I believe the rumor about Rhaegar started from this incident (AWOIAF: The Targaryen Kings: Aerys II):

Quote

Most of the small council were with the Hand outside Duskendale at this juncture, and several of them argued against Lord Tywin's plan on the grounds that such an attack would almost certainly goad Lord Darklyn into putting King Aerys to death. "He may or may not," Tywin Lannister reportedly replied, "but if he does, we have a better king right here." Whereupon he raised his hand to indicate Prince Rhaegar.

I have no doubt that the purpose of this statement was to drive a wedge between father and son, but over time it became a way to damage both father and son in ways conducive to bringing down the Targaryens. One of the reasons I believe that Varys was behaving in an honest way with both Aerys and Rhaegar is because the rumors didn't actually break them apart.