US Politics: Four Days and Counting

[DMC]

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

So...do the pollsters bother calling cell numbers? I don't seem to recollect pollsters calling on cells.  If they do not call cells, that could indicate a demographic skew in the polls - possibly enough of one to tip some of the closer contests.

Yes, this has largely been accounted for by now.  538's pollster ratings have probably the most comprehensive list of the various methodologies used, but the vast majority of the polls you see use live cell phone calling as at least some part of their data collection these days.

[Darth Richard II]

I dunno about calling but they certainly text me all the time.

[Ser Reptitious]

12 hours ago, Zorral said:

Hi and Lois, among these other strips has been making more overt political statements in the last two years.  The strips post the 2016 election for instance, shows Lois very, very depressed.  Hi is commiserating and trying to comfort her.  The girl-baby, Trixie,  is on the floor, and her baby thought balloon says something like (I can't recall completely), "Cheer up, Mommy. When I grow up, I'll be President!"  People in comments went ballistic about that.

Interesting, didn't know that. 

[Fez]

I'm getting all jittery again about the election, the next 36 hours are going to be rough. The individual district and state polls are mostly looking as good as they ever have, but I don't like that both ABC and NBC have shown a slight decline in the generic ballot and, more importantly, an increase in Trump's approval rating.

I could be jumping at shadows, but I suspect I'm permanently scarred by 2016. If Democrats come up short in the House, things are going to get so much worse.

[Martell Spy]

Final polls point to narrow House majority for Democrats
The head of Senate Democrats' campaign arm, meanwhile, said the party has a 'narrow path' to taking the chamber.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/11/04/2018-elections-midterms-final-push-960498

Quote

 

Democrats’ marathon campaign to seize the House sped toward the finish line Sunday, with national indicators suggesting the party is on track to end Republicans’ eight-year majority in Tuesday’s elections.

New ABC News/Washington Post and NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls show Democrats with high-single-digit leads on the generic congressional ballot. That edge will likely translate into the 23-seat gain required to win control, but not necessarily enough to capture a more significant majority, given the GOP’s structural advantages in the way congressional districts have been drawn.

That was confirmed by CBS News’ “Battleground Tracker” — a data-based model that, as of Sunday, showed Democrats leading Republicans, 225 House seats to 210 seats, but with a majority-flipping margin of error of plus or minus 13 seats.

 

 

[Mexal]

13 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm getting all jittery again about the election, the next 36 hours are going to be rough. The individual district and state polls are mostly looking as good as they ever have, but I don't like that both ABC and NBC have shown a slight decline in the generic ballot and, more importantly, an increase in Trump's approval rating.

I could be jumping at shadows, but I suspect I'm permanently scarred by 2016. If Democrats come up short in the House, things are going to get so much worse.

I'm pretty nervous myself even though I feel decent after NYT's latest polls. It's really too close to call but I keep hoping that, like the VA Gov, the polling error is to underestimate Dem enthusiasm.

[Ormond]

11 minutes ago, Fez said:

I'm getting all jittery again about the election, the next 36 hours are going to be rough. The individual district and state polls are mostly looking as good as they ever have, but I don't like that both ABC and NBC have shown a slight decline in the generic ballot and, more importantly, an increase in Trump's approval rating.

I could be jumping at shadows, but I suspect I'm permanently scarred by 2016. If Democrats come up short in the House, things are going to get so much worse.

Well, while NBC's poll shows Trump's approval at 46%, an increase over their previous polling, CNN's, which was done over the same three days (Nov.1-3) shows him at only 39%, definitely the lowest they've had him in a while. 538's aggregate has him at 41.9% today, down from 43.1% on October 23, which I would think is probably closer to the truth than any individual poll. 

It was fascinating to be going back and forth between MSNBC and CNN this morning and to see both of them touting their Trump approval polls while making no mention of the fact that their latest polls are both "outliers", in opposite directions. 

[Martell Spy]

Quote

 

Though Kemp is receiving the most attention during this election cycle, his actions are far from unusual. Officials in Republican-led states have enacted a variety of restrictive voting measures over the past decade similar to the ones he’s pursued. They defend these measures as a prophylactic against voter fraud, which is virtually nonexistent. But in practical terms, the greatest effect is to make it harder for thousands of Americans, particularly from disadvantaged communities, to vote. No small share of credit goes to the Roberts Court.

The Voting Rights Act is no ordinary piece of legislation. People died for it. Civil-rights activists in the 1950s and 1960s were beaten, bloodied, and even murdered in the campaign to guarantee black Americans ballot access. Once enacted, it proved to be a powerful tool at sweeping away the last vestiges of Jim Crow and ensuring that states where it once thrived would not relapse into past deprivations. Measured by its impact, it ranks among the most effective pieces of human-rights legislation passed in the twentieth century.

 

How the Roberts Court Caused Georgia’s Election Mess
Thanks to a 2013 ruling, Southern states are free to pass restrictive laws without government scrutiny.

https://newrepublic.com/article/152012/roberts-court-caused-georgias-election-mess

[lokisnow]

I’m a pessimist so I don’t believe this poll from Usc  and the la times which shows a 15 point D advantage and a MOE of 2%.

 

the article says an alternate measure makes it a 10 point D advantage also MOE of 2%. They’re testing both to see which is more accurate for forecasting.

 

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20181105-story.html

 

[Fez]

28 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Well, while NBC's poll shows Trump's approval at 46%, an increase over their previous polling, CNN's, which was done over the same three days (Nov.1-3) shows him at only 39%, definitely the lowest they've had him in a while. 538's aggregate has him at 41.9% today, down from 43.1% on October 23, which I would think is probably closer to the truth than any individual poll. 

It was fascinating to be going back and forth between MSNBC and CNN this morning and to see both of them touting their Trump approval polls while making no mention of the fact that their latest polls are both "outliers", in opposite directions. 

I agree that CNN is an outlier (though hopefully a correct one!), as they also have a generic ballot of D+13. However NBC is mostly backed up by ABC, which had Trump at 44%.

Again, could be nothing, there's a whole bunch of state and district polls that came out this morning that almost all look great. But I'd feel better if every indicator looked great instead of just most of them.

There's also Rasmussen, totally off in their own world, showing a generic ballot of R+1 this morning. But I find it best to just ignore them; there's no sign this is going to be the 2014 electorate, which is what they're modeling after.

[Maithanet]

6 minutes ago, Fez said:

I agree that CNN is an outlier (though hopefully a correct one!), as they also have a generic ballot of D+13. However NBC is mostly backed up by ABC, which had Trump at 44%.

Again, could be nothing, there's a whole bunch of state and district polls that came out this morning that almost all look great. But I'd feel better if every indicator looked great instead of just most of them.

There's also Rasmussen, totally off in their own world, showing a generic ballot of R+1 this morning. But I find it best to just ignore them; there's no sign this is going to be the 2014 electorate, which is what they're modeling after.

I agree that it is hard to reconcile what Rasmussen is doing. 

I'm not super worried about Trump's approval rating, on the whole it hasn't been particularly good, and right before an election those polls often show improvement.  Obama's went up in the weeks before 2010 and see all that good that did. 

I feel like the polls have actually been pretty steady in the past week.  Maybe a little erosion in Senate support in IN and MO, but on the whole we are seeing a relatively stable picture.  I hope Jon Ralston is right about Nevada, because if Democrats can take down Heller, they're probably in for at least an OK night in the Senate and a House win. 

[SweetPea]

50 minutes ago, Fez said:

I could be jumping at shadows, but I suspect I'm permanently scarred by 2016. If Democrats come up short in the House, things are going to get so much worse.

Not necessarily. I think the Democrats winning the House would help Trump's re-election chances in 2020, mainly because he would be able to blame all of his broken promises on the Dems obstruction, and also Nancy Pelosi would be a great punching bag for him.

There's an article on The Washington Post that agrees with this.

[Mexal]

15 minutes ago, Fez said:

I agree that CNN is an outlier (though hopefully a correct one!), as they also have a generic ballot of D+13. However NBC is mostly backed up by ABC, which had Trump at 44%.

Again, could be nothing, there's a whole bunch of state and district polls that came out this morning that almost all look great. But I'd feel better if every indicator looked great instead of just most of them.

There's also Rasmussen, totally off in their own world, showing a generic ballot of R+1 this morning. But I find it best to just ignore them; there's no sign this is going to be the 2014 electorate, which is what they're modeling after.

I'm trying not to panic too much. A day before the VA Gov race, CBS had Gillespie up by 3 pts. In 2012, all the polls the day before had the race tightening with Obama. Basically what I take away from all this is it's impossible to know, especially with ~37 million people already voting and we'll just have to wait and see what the returns are tomorrow. The battleground House polls have actually moved in the direction of Dems and don't seem aligned with the generic ballot/approval rating last minute movements. Just don't think there is any over analyzing every last minute poll which is pretty much what the media will do non stop for the next 24 hours.

[Mexal]

8 minutes ago, SweetPea said:

Not necessarily. I think the Democrats winning the House would help Trump's re-election chances in 2020, mainly because he would be able to blame all of his broken promises on the Dems obstruction, and also Nancy Pelosi would be a great punching bag for him.

There's an article on The Washington Post that agrees with this.

Two points.

1. He already does that now. He has blamed the Dems for literally every failure even though the Republicans own the House, Senate, Executive and soon to be Judiciary. So don't really think that'll matter much.

2. No telling what will be dug up from House investigations. Maybe it helps with the white, no college group that is his base but it'll likely continue to turn off college educated Republicans in the suburbs. 

[Maithanet]

Plus, a hypothetical Republican Congress in 2018 will be far more beholden to Trump than the 2016 Congress was.  Most of the most anti-Trump voices in the party are gone.  The damage that could be done in two years with 54 Republican Senators and 225 Republicans in the House is immense. 

[Fez]

23 minutes ago, SweetPea said:

Not necessarily. I think the Democrats winning the House would help Trump's re-election chances in 2020, mainly because he would be able to blame all of his broken promises on the Dems obstruction, and also Nancy Pelosi would be a great punching bag for him.

There's an article on The Washington Post that agrees with this.

Two years is a long time in politics, and I'm more concerned about what happens during those two years rather than afterwards.

If Republicans win, with the kind of campaigns they've been running this year, they are going to double down even further on hatred and fear.

If Republicans win, there will continue to be no congressional oversight of this administration.

If Republicans win a tiny House majority, the chamber will be truly ungovernable and I really believe we'll break the debt ceiling next time it comes up and go through multiple, prolonged shutdowns.

[Relic]

Fuck the polls, we won;t know anything till tomorrow evening. if you are worried do some canvasing. 

 

a good resource - https://votesaveamerica.com/dosomething

[SweetPea]

18 minutes ago, Fez said:

Two years is a long time in politics, and I'm more concerned about what happens during those two years rather than afterwards.

If Republicans win, with the kind of campaigns they've been running this year, they are going to double down even further on hatred and fear.

If Republicans win, there will continue to be no congressional oversight of this administration.

If Republicans win a tiny House majority, the chamber will be truly ungovernable and I really believe we'll break the debt ceiling next time it comes up and go through multiple, prolonged shutdowns.

Well yeah, it's not looking good for the Dems either way.

[Relic]

Just now, SweetPea said:

Well yeah, it's not looking good for the Dems either way.

or for future generations, for that matter. 

[Martell Spy]

20 minutes ago, Fez said:

Two years is a long time in politics, and I'm more concerned about what happens during those two years rather than afterwards.

If Republicans win, with the kind of campaigns they've been running this year, they are going to double down even further on hatred and fear.

If Republicans win, there will continue to be no congressional oversight of this administration.

If Republicans win a tiny House majority, the chamber will be truly ungovernable and I really believe we'll break the debt ceiling next time it comes up and go through multiple, prolonged shutdowns.

If the Republicans win, with the kind of campaigns they have been running this year, there are going to be massive cuts to healthcare and perhaps more. They have been baldly lying about their healthcare stances and if they win on that the lesson they will take is that voters are stupid and they can do whatever they want then lie about it later. Zombie Ryancare/Obmacare repeal will return with a vengeance.