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Gendarrion

The aftermath of Others invasion

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I can't find any discussion regarding this questions, but If there are, please send the link here.

1. How many lords and houses will remain?, I'm actually thinking more than half of them will go extinct, or maybe I'm just exaggerating the power of Others.
2. Next is about the Political system, Any political system that the future king will change will be easy to impose since there will be a little opposition from the weakened noble houses, I'm actually imagining a more centralize westeros.
3. Type of government in the end.
will we see a
A. democratic westeros? The chances in this for me is slim to none since there are no groundwork for this except at the wall.
B. divided westeros? this will create more war in the future and North and the riverlands will not survive alone if they are divided, it will succumb to disease and famine, the amount of destruction cause by the war and Others invasion will be too much for them to handle.
C. absolute monarch/centralize? since there will be too few lords to oppose and the common folk are too exhausted in war, it is possible. 

Edited by Gendarrion

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I am betting on a 80% to 95% population cull in the coming winter with most of the killing done by hunger, cold and men. When it is over Westeros would probably be back to the time of the 100 petty kingdoms

Edited by Tucu

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If you look at what happened in England after the Black Plague, many of the peasants and lower classes gained rights and wages from the opportunity and lack of work force. The lords couldn’t force them to remain on the land with no pay or bad pay because the workers could just go somewhere else and find a better deal. So I think the survivors will be better off than with the last system and have an opportunity to set up something more democratic like the constitutional monarchy of the UK. It’s not like there is going to be much loss to technology or knowledge, and Essos seems isolated from the threat, at this point anyway. They definitely have a better chance to improve their situation and move up, if they were originally a peasant, even if they won’t be starting some kind of democracy.

As an aside, I think the last time the Others invaded and were successful with the Long Night, there was climate change, the sea level went down and ice went up, and that’s why there was a land bridge from Westeros to Essos. The Shivering Sea and the northern region of the planet would’ve had way more ice so Westeros would have more land exposed. As men pushed the Others back and gained territory, the ice melted and submerged the Arm of Dorne. As they lost more and more territory the same could’ve happened with the Neck. I don’t think ‘the Children used magic powers to call up the sea’ is an accurate description of events in any case. Although it would be related to the Children using magic and creating the Others, which then created that side effect of sea level change. *shrug*

Edited by Redhands

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I think, that GRRM's basis for ASOIAF (amongst others, such as The Lord of the Rings, and The War of Roses, etc.) is the Bible.

Spoiler

First war between angels and Lucifer is First Long Night, second war between Jesus and Antichrist is Second Long Night.

Jesus, who in the Book of Revelation was named King of kings and Lord of lords, and was leading an army of horsemen on white horses, is GRRM's basis for Rhaego, the Stallion that mounts the world, who is Khal of khals.

Dany, Rhaego and Jon are a parallel to The Holy Trinity - The Mother, The Son, and The Holy Ghost. All three of them were also writen as parallels to Biblical Jesus - Jon will be resurrected; according to Dothraki prophecy, all people of the world will be Rhaego's herd (in the Bible Jesus was named the great shepherd, that will unite and lead all nations); following the Bleeding Star comet, three wisemen from the east came to Dany, same as in the Bible three eastern wisemen came to Jesus and Mother Mary; etc.

fAegon/mummer's dragon is a parallel to Antichrist, The Beast of the Sea, and a scarlet Beast. Varys, Illyrio and Littlefinger are his false prophets, and parallels to the Beast of the Earth, and the Dragon. Margaery Tyrell is a parallel to the great Harlot/Babylon. Dany is a parallel to the Woman Clothed with the Sun. Weirwood is a parallel to Biblical Wormwood.

Here's a short summary of Biblical Apocalypse - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Book_of_Revelation#Structure_and_content

Doesn't this look similar to fAegon's cover story? -

"A Beast (with seven heads, ten horns, and ten crowns on his horns and on his heads names of blasphemy) emerges from the Sea, having one mortally wounded head that is then healed. The people of the world wonder and follow the Beast. The Dragon grants him power and authority for forty-two months. (13:1–5)

The Beast of the Sea blasphemes God's name (along with God's tabernacle and His kingdom and all who dwell in Heaven), wages war against the Saints, and overcomes them. (13:6–10)

Then, a Beast emerges from the Earth having two horns like a lamb, speaking like a dragon. He directs people to make an image of the Beast of the Sea who was wounded yet lives, breathing life into it, and forcing all people to bear "the mark of the Beast"."

The beast from the Earth is a basis for Littlefinger, because LF is (possibly) a descendant of Falena Stokeworth, who's House sigil is a lamb, and a descendant of Aegon IV Targaryen, so he is a lamb and a dragon (descendant of the Bastard of Harrenhal, who was secret son of Aegon IV and Jeyne Lothston (daughter of Falena Stokeworth and Aegon IV)).

If Biblical Apocalypse is really GRRM's main basis for ASOIAF's end game, then during Second Long Night will die more than half of Planetos' population.

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9 hours ago, Tucu said:

I am betting on a 80% to 95% population cull in the coming winter with most of the killing done by hunger, cold and men. When it is over Westeros would probably be back to the time of the 100 petty kingdoms

100 Kingdoms - I agree.

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13 hours ago, Gendarrion said:

I can't find any discussion regarding this questions, but If there are, please send the link here.

1. How many lords and houses will remain?, I'm actually thinking more than half of them will go extinct, or maybe I'm just exaggerating the power of Others.
2. Next is about the Political system, Any political system that the future king will change will be easy to impose since there will be a little opposition from the weakened noble houses, I'm actually imagining a more centralize westeros.
3. Type of government in the end.
will we see a
A. democratic westeros? The chances in this for me is slim to none since there are no groundwork for this except at the wall.
B. divided westeros? this will create more war in the future and North and the riverlands will not survive alone if they are divided, it will succumb to disease and famine, the amount of destruction cause by the war and Others invasion will be too much for them to handle.
C. absolute monarch/centralize? since there will be too few lords to oppose and the common folk are too exhausted in war, it is possible. 

There will not be a central government and feudalism will not survive.   There is little incentive for the common folk to share part of what they reap to an overlord when they are living in hunting and gathering system.  

Mr. Martin has said, winter is when people die.  There will definitely be a population cull.  The north will suffer the most and perhaps all of the castles and noble families of the north will fall.  Winterfell should fall.  The cull will reach down as far as the ice blanket.  The survivors will migrate to the south and encounter resistance from the people of Dorne and the Reach, who will protect what they have from the refugees.  

12 hours ago, Tucu said:

I am betting on a 80% to 95% population cull in the coming winter with most of the killing done by hunger, cold and men. When it is over Westeros would probably be back to the time of the 100 petty kingdoms

I think so too.  History will sort of repeat itself when Daenerys and her dragons conquer these petty kingdoms and rebuild Westeros as soon as the ice thaws.   Daenerys is the female Aegon The Conqueror.  

Edited by Bowen 747

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19 hours ago, Bowen 747 said:

Mr. Martin has said, winter is when people die.  There will definitely be a population cull.  The north will suffer the most and perhaps all of the castles and noble families of the north will fall.  Winterfell should fall. 

I think it would be kind of the opposite, with the people of the north faring better than the south, because they are used to harsh winters and are more capable in those conditions. They are more prepared for winter and their main House has the sole purpose of warning that ‘Winter is Coming.’ 

The southron (with the exception of Dorne) kingdoms, however, aren’t going to do very well. They are coming out of an over decade long summer and are living in war torn kingdoms. Their main source of food is the Reach and once winter comes they will be very screwed. None of them really know how to survive a harsh winter like the people of the north. With Cersei in charge down there it’s going to be every man for himself. 

Edited by Redhands

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On 11/20/2018 at 11:10 AM, Gendarrion said:

I can't find any discussion regarding this questions, but If there are, please send the link here.

1. How many lords and houses will remain?, I'm actually thinking more than half of them will go extinct, or maybe I'm just exaggerating the power of Others.
2. Next is about the Political system, Any political system that the future king will change will be easy to impose since there will be a little opposition from the weakened noble houses, I'm actually imagining a more centralize westeros.
3. Type of government in the end.
will we see a
A. democratic westeros? The chances in this for me is slim to none since there are no groundwork for this except at the wall.
B. divided westeros? this will create more war in the future and North and the riverlands will not survive alone if they are divided, it will succumb to disease and famine, the amount of destruction cause by the war and Others invasion will be too much for them to handle.
C. absolute monarch/centralize? since there will be too few lords to oppose and the common folk are too exhausted in war, it is possible. 

This is a topic that fascinates me and hope that that GRRM gives us some hints of what will happen afterwards. Of course I have my speculations, influenced in not small part by my wishes, but many of them are quite plausible given the circumstances and parallels with historic events.

Whilst the Others invasion will be catastrophic in not a small part by the Winter they bring, it is not the only problem that Westeros will face. Winter famine will be exacerbated by the years of civil war. War in itself will continue (Dany, Euron, Aegon, etc will take care of that) and produce large additional casualties. It is possible we will see other calamities. Grey Plague in the Stormlands, King's Landing being nuked, whatever forces or beings awakened by Euron, etc. Also, Dany's Essos revolution may imply that little help or refuge can be found in Essos.

Regarding your questions

1) I expect that nobility will be severely diminished in number, power and prestige, with many houses disappearing or at the verge of that. It is unlikely they will recover their former power and prestige as their carelessness for the small folk will come to bite them in the back. 

2) & 3)   I think Westeros will divide and different regions may try a different sort of government. It is possible that in the North, things will continue in a similar fashion, although with adjustments. Difficult to say in other regions. It is possible that some places, specially those with large influx of Essosi may experiment with republic-like governments. Despite the exhaustion after the Apocalypse, I'm pessimist that peace will endure, instead fighting may continue for different reasons, see below.

Other things I envision:

- The maester order will cease to exist. It is hinted that they are already declining, but the final blow will be brought by Euron when he invides Oldtown. After the destruction of the Citadel, it will become hard to centralize the knowledge again and surviving maesters may attempt to create different place of learning (hint: universities) maybe with the help of some Essosi too. Unnecessary to say that a lot of knowledge will be lost, also with the destruction of castles, etc.

- There will be likely conflicts between the Faith of the Seven and the R'hllorists. We see that the follower of the Red God are growing in the Riverlands and also to a lesser extend in the North. Contrary to the followers of the Old Gods, the R'hllorists are more aggressive in their faith. We also need to consider that a large influx of Essosi is possible too.

- I expect that many Esssosi will follow Dany in her journey to Westeros, they will be mostly freedmen and Dothraki. The former may be skilled in different arts and thus will become an important addition to the economy of Westeros and thus its future social order. The later however... I don't know what to expect. I think they will take their own spaces and will be difficult to handle. 

The world will not be necessary better, but it will be saved from a total destruction, it will be. It is possible that one of  greatest evil of mankind - slavery - will be rooted out of a big chunk of Essos, but it doesn't mean that people will live peacefully. This is a list of minor things that I expect to happen and sshow that things won't be rosy.

- Whatever remains of Meeren and Slaver's Bay will be ruled by the Shavepate. Not the nicest man in town.

- The relatively peaceful and quite developed administration of the magisters in Pentos, will be replaced by the despotic rule of the Tattered Prince.

- In Volantis, the anti-slavery revolution will likely be savage and bring to the top the Widow of the Waterfront. I don't think she will be nice with her enemies.

- A lot of cities will be sacked and destroyed by the Dothraki in Dany's Essos march of conquest.

- In Westeros we will have people like Brown Ben Plumm, Big Walder and Bronn in positions of power.

- The Vale will be sacked by the Mountain Clans. 

- In the south the Dothraki will roam quite freely. 

- Conflicts will continue between the Free Folk and the Northmen, maybe mitigated by the alliance against the Others, but with the Fall of the Wall there won't be a hard border to stop the most extreme cases.

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On 11/20/2018 at 5:10 AM, Gendarrion said:

I can't find any discussion regarding this questions, but If there are, please send the link here.

1. How many lords and houses will remain?, I'm actually thinking more than half of them will go extinct, or maybe I'm just exaggerating the power of Others.
2. Next is about the Political system, Any political system that the future king will change will be easy to impose since there will be a little opposition from the weakened noble houses, I'm actually imagining a more centralize westeros.
3. Type of government in the end.
will we see a
A. democratic westeros? The chances in this for me is slim to none since there are no groundwork for this except at the wall.
B. divided westeros? this will create more war in the future and North and the riverlands will not survive alone if they are divided, it will succumb to disease and famine, the amount of destruction cause by the war and Others invasion will be too much for them to handle.
C. absolute monarch/centralize? since there will be too few lords to oppose and the common folk are too exhausted in war, it is possible. 

The Others will be repelled but the people who have been turned to wights cannot be saved.  Daenery, the Targaryen armies, and her dragons will burn them.  Many of the cities and castle will have to be torched to get rid of all of the wights within.  

Westeros will be covered with ice in what will be like the Ice Age.  The Starks will have turned to direwolves by this time.  The north will be desolate and devoid of human life.  I don't know where the boundary will be between the living and the dead.  Perhaps near The Trident.  

Many of the sensible people will migrate to Essos.  Sea levels will undoubtedly lower because some of the water will be frozen on land.  They can cross the step stones to Essos.  

Slavery will be outlawed throughout most of Essos.  Places like Vaes Tolloro and the other empty cities will be peopled.  The refugees from Essos will have new homes.  

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On 11/20/2018 at 11:10 AM, Gendarrion said:

1. How many lords and houses will remain?, I'm actually thinking more than half of them will go extinct, or maybe I'm just exaggerating the power of Others.

For what we can read during 5 books, for the moment, lords and houses are just the first contributors to their own extinction. Making war each other, they don't need Others at all.

Plus, knowing how GRRM likes to put down some litterature's cliche, we could bet that there will never be an Other's invasion : at the end of ADWD, a very hard winter is already on Winterfell, and the snow arrives in the south (Riverlands, King's Landing...), though the Others didn't pass the Wall, so...

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I think Westeros will simply plummet into disorder until another King or Queen rises to unify them again. Over the centuries, they'll rebuild and encounter all the same problems their ancestors had. The whole thing just sorta happens all over again. Their world is a bit f*cked as it's intruded upon by magic users. For so long as magic prevails on Planetos, the people will favour myths and legends over scientific study. 

But all of this makes me think that Westeros needs a clean slate. Every facet of every institution has been corrupted. Perhaps starting from scratch is the only real hope Westeros has? This is where I think the story will end. And I don't think we'll know for sure what the future holds. At best, they'll still have the major roads and some sturdy castles. Maybe the citadel, or some of it's knowledge will survive? 

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On 11/22/2018 at 7:27 PM, Enuma Elish said:

The Others will be repelled but the people who have been turned to wights cannot be saved.  Daenery, the Targaryen armies, and her dragons will burn them.  Many of the cities and castle will have to be torched to get rid of all of the wights within.  

Westeros will be covered with ice in what will be like the Ice Age.  The Starks will have turned to direwolves by this time.  The north will be desolate and devoid of human life.  I don't know where the boundary will be between the living and the dead.  Perhaps near The Trident.  

Many of the sensible people will migrate to Essos.  Sea levels will undoubtedly lower because some of the water will be frozen on land.  They can cross the step stones to Essos.  

Slavery will be outlawed throughout most of Essos.  Places like Vaes Tolloro and the other empty cities will be peopled.  The refugees from Essos will have new homes.  

I had the same idea for the land bridge and posted it here.  

I also wrote that Daenerys is the Moses of ASOIAF and she will lead the slaves out of bondage.  Mereen is the analogue for Egypt.  My theory is the slaves will go to the empty cities of the Red Waste.  Vaes Toloro is one.  

GRRM might flip the plot though and have people come eastwards instead.  Daenerys the Moses may stay put in Mereen and accept the refugees from Westeros.  I'm totally fine with it.  

On 11/23/2018 at 9:36 AM, TheThreeEyedCow said:

I think Westeros will simply plummet into disorder until another King or Queen rises to unify them again. Over the centuries, they'll rebuild and encounter all the same problems their ancestors had. The whole thing just sorta happens all over again. Their world is a bit f*cked as it's intruded upon by magic users. For so long as magic prevails on Planetos, the people will favour myths and legends over scientific study. 

But all of this makes me think that Westeros needs a clean slate. Every facet of every institution has been corrupted. Perhaps starting from scratch is the only real hope Westeros has? This is where I think the story will end. And I don't think we'll know for sure what the future holds. At best, they'll still have the major roads and some sturdy castles. Maybe the citadel, or some of it's knowledge will survive? 

An extreme form of interregnum.  All social order will fall apart when people's bellies start growling for food.  The nobles themselves will have trouble convincing their peasants to share the fruits of their labor with them when they can't do anything to benefit their smallfolk.  Westeros will time warp back to a tribal system.  Surely we know which people live this style?  The free folk.  The nobility will fall on its face and the survivors will live in tribes with each having a chieftain.  Civilization will be preserved somewhere in the east.  Many with the means to do so will migrate to the East. 

 

52 minutes ago, Sophia [email protected] said:

Well it made the Children (Race) almost extinct and Giants are on out also.

Man did that.  

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On 11/21/2018 at 2:04 PM, Redhands said:

I think it would be kind of the opposite, with the people of the north faring better than the south, because they are used to harsh winters and are more capable in those conditions. They are more prepared for winter and their main House has the sole purpose of warning that ‘Winter is Coming.’ 

The southron (with the exception of Dorne) kingdoms, however, aren’t going to do very well. They are coming out of an over decade long summer and are living in war torn kingdoms. Their main source of food is the Reach and once winter comes they will be very screwed. None of them really know how to survive a harsh winter like the people of the north. With Cersei in charge down there it’s going to be every man for himself. 

Being used to harsh winters is not going to make them better survivors.  They will face death with more acceptance but it's all the same.

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