NBA Playoffs 2019 - Kawhi So Serious?!

[James Arryn]

11 minutes ago, SkynJay said:

That is fine.  You can dismiss dissenting opinions here but realize officiating is human.  And the article you linked drives to the point of your original question.  Refs don't like to be duped, and constant flops and manipulation WILL lead to non-calls in close situations down the line.  Especially in the playoffs.  I am an analytic geek but officiating will always be more art than science.  It will be wrong multiple times in a game.  And you'll have to forgive me if I don't take the Rockets word when they claim to be screwed by it the most.

Sorry, to clarify again, it’s not the Rockets’ word. It’s the league’s own data. All the Rockets have done is release it. And as mentioned, I knew the thrust of the article, if you’d like a different slant I could have linked any of several others, say https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2019/4/29/18521875/james-harden-fouls-three-pointers-referees-nba-playoffs

but the point wasn’t the interpretation, just the data link. Which, again, 93 pts/series, 18 pts in game 7. 

And, again you are pushing this ‘this is the result of refs being duped’, but there are several issues with that premise. First, it assumes that they are being duped. Second, it assumes that they somehow continue to be duped all regular season but somehow congregate on payback just vs. the Warriors in back to back years, which would be odd. Why not against the Jazz? Etc. Third, it would not explain why the officials themselves are admitting to error in real time. There is more, but to reiterate, 18 points in game 7, according to the official league data. This isn’t the Rockets’ ‘side’ of the argument, this is a tabulation according to the league’s own records which accounts for errors made either way and which when tabulated comes up with things like game 7 +18 GSW. As if the Warriors need help. 

[SkynJay]

18 points in game 7, according to the Rocket's interpretation of the data; an interpretation arrived at by methodology the league disagrees with.

Some stat wonks disagree with other stat wonks.

"The point totals were deduced by the Rockets after their own research based on data by given the league."

All this, once again, arguing about human error and the emotional element.  In a sport where terms like 'superstar whistle' and 'playoff whistle' already prove a flawed system.  

I am not pushing a 'refs are dupped'  naritive, mearly pointing out that they probably know the story of a boy who called wolf.  That they probably talk during timeouts and point out to each other when fouls (or flops) are miscalled so they can watch for them again.

It is not incumbent on me to disprove a negative.  I see no reason the refs are working for, or against, any specific team through multiple crews and an entire series.  And without the Rockets releasing all their methodology for arriving at their conclusions I am going to let my bias doubt their conclusions.  

 

 

[David Selig]

On 4/30/2019 at 5:41 PM, Tywin et al. said:

I think the huge difference is that Denver is completely different from OKC. OKC has two superstars and not much else, and in that series one was hurt and the other was super inefficient. That’s something you can contain. Denver, OTOH, has one superstar who is super atypical and a lot of guys around him he can kick it out to. Portland is going to struggle unless Dame goes berserk for four games, and I suspect that won’t happen.

This version of Westbrook was pretty much a perfect matchup for Kanter - his jumpshot is broken and he lacks the athleticism of his prime years to just blow by Kanter and finish at the rim no matter how much Kanter sagged off him. And when Paul George tried to run the pick and roll, the rest of OKC's team was so lacking in shooting that the Blazers could just swarm him and live with the wide open shots by the likes of Westbrook, Schroder and Ferguson they conceded.

But Jamal Murray is an excellent midrange shooter so you can't just give him a wide open look and live with it, and Denver have a lot more good shooters than OKC. I just don't see how Portland would be able to defend the Murray-Jokic duo effectively with their currently available players.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, David Selig said:

he (Westbrook) lacks the athleticism of his prime years

Does he? I’ve been debating this one with myself and I’m not so sure that he has lost that much athletically, at least in terms of explosiveness. I think it’s his stamina that’s taking a toll. One thing that’s always stood out to me about Westbrook is that he never seems to tire despite being the most explosive player in the league. But lately I have seen him noticeably tired late in games. OKC is going to have to roll back is regular season usage rate if they want him to still have his legs in the post season.

[David Selig]

54 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Does he? I’ve been debating this one with myself and I’m not so sure that he has lost that much athletically, at least in terms of explosiveness. I think it’s his stamina that’s taking a toll. One thing that’s always stood out to me about Westbrook is that he never seems to tire despite being the most explosive player in the league. But lately I have seen him noticeably tired late in games. OKC is going to have to roll back is regular season usage rate if they want him to still have his legs in the post season.

His explosiveness is still great on most nights, but sometimes he seems to have lost half a step compared to his prime. His lift though seems to have declined more significantly, all season I've seen him pass to a teammate who is not in a great position in situations where he'd would have certainly attacked the rim earlier in his career, and I think that's part of the reason his jump shot has declined - he doesn't get the same elevation on it as he used to.

His stamina was always somewhat overrated IMO, I've seen him tired plenty of times over the years towards the end of games, and he only had 3 seasons where he's been Top 20 in minutes per game, and his highest MPG seasons were actually the two most recent ones. I haven't noticed a decline in stamina at all, if anything that's one part of his game which seems the same, he often seemed the most fresh player on his team down the stretch in many games this season.

[SkynJay]

12 points in the second quarter.  Heard today on the radio the Nuggets were 1 for 12 on OPEN 3 point attempts from Jokic passes alone.  The man should have had 20 assists, instead had 7.  He read the double teams and made the right passes, his team didn't come through. 

Not sure what to think.  The defense and rebounds were there and it is hard to see the Nuggets shooting 33% again, they have always been streaky.  It was a two posession game with a minute to go despite the horrible shooting performance.

On the other hand Murry is legitimately hurting, this scares me going forward.  Still think the Nuggets win this series if they take one in Portland, but damn it this could go seven games.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 hours ago, SkynJay said:

12 points in the second quarter.  Heard today on the radio the Nuggets were 1 for 12 on OPEN 3 point attempts from Jokic passes alone.  The man should have had 20 assists, instead had 7.  He read the double teams and made the right passes, his team didn't come through. 

20? They weren't going to make them all dude.

Quote

Not sure what to think. 

He's the thing, Denver is more talented, but Portland is more consistent and seasoned. If Denver makes their shots, they will win the series. If the don't, Portland wins in 6. What should have you worried though is Dame didn't play well last night and Portland still won. 

[Proudfeet]

That's the thing with 3 point shots though. You are less likely to consistently hit your season average percentage and when you aren't making the shots the results are pretty bad. It feels like it is harder to get offensive rebounds off misses too. The ball usually bounces high and teams will start running back to prevent a fast break rather than contest the rebound.

[SkynJay]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

20? They weren't going to make them all dude.

He's the thing, Denver is more talented, but Portland is more consistent and seasoned. If Denver makes their shots, they will win the series. If the don't, Portland wins in 6. What should have you worried though is Dame didn't play well last night and Portland still won. 

A bit exaggerated I know.  But it wasn't just the 12 open 3s, he hit people for what should have been layups, jumpers, and even what should have been a highlight dunk.  No one could get the ball in the basket.  And since they couldn't Portland ignored everyone but him in pick and roll situations and on the block. 

Dame doesn't worry me as great as he is because I think you have the right of it; this series is completely about Denver making or missing shots.  Dame dropped 39 in game 1 and that really was a blowout that had a touch of excitement at the end but was still never close.  But I don't know if Denver will make those shots.  Murry is obviously hurting, Morris hasn't hit a 3 in the playoffs, Craig is now playing with a face mask, and Barton is so far in his own head I am not sure he will ever be right.

19 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Is Denver really that talented of a Roster? 

Yes, but young and very much reliant on Jokic.  And they should have been the 3 seed, that is on Houston's horrible start.  Like you said, Jokic is part of that and the roster works well with his style.  Two guards that can cut to the basket on DHO or pop to the weak side for threes.  A bench that carried them through injuries for half the season (at one point Jokic and Murry were the only starters left, for like a 15 game period).  But if you haven't watched them all season I can see why they are confusing some people.

-The talented bench hit a wall.  30 games into the season Juancho was third in the league in 3 point percentage, he fell apart and has about 2 junk minutes in the playoffs.  Lyles fell off the cliff even worse.  It is a good thing the bench shrinks in the playoffs, but we have no 3s or 4s for situations like when Craig broke his nose and had to leave for a half.

-Plumlee is a regular season player, plain and simple.  His game kills the offense now and tightened defenses take away his alley opp opportunities.  He could bang with a talented classic center...but we are not facing one.

-Will Barton.  Supposed to be the starting 3 and a major contributor.  He just can not play anymore.   He was never 100% after his injury but he was one of those who could go off for 25 every three games.  No longer, he has gone no show in the playoffs.  He is now good for some rebounds, a few bad shots, and a god awful turnover.  But, the lack of forwards means he has to get 20 minutes or so.

BUT.  Murry is a player that could be an all-star someday though I doubt he will ever be a top 3 pg type.  He has a lot of Dame in his game too, if he heats up Denver is pretty unstoppable.  He just lacks the consistency and of course is still young.  When the season started I wanted them to move him back to shooting guard, but year end he had grown enough that I like him in PG.  Fear him if shots start going in.

Gary Harris and Milsap are solid.  Not stars but very reliable.  Exactly the type of people you want as your third and forth best player if your team isn't attracting a group of big-three max contract players.  Beasly is going to make a lot of money in this league, probably starting as a gunner for someone else in a few years.

And of course, Jokic.  He is now an allstar, mentioned as a MVP vote getter, and getting articles on national news sites.  And he is STILL UNDERRATED.  Without him the Nuggets are not even a playoff team.  But when people talk about how talented Denver is, they are thinking of Jokic and anyone making easy shots because of him.  

 

[KingintheNorth4]

What a dumb move by Siakam tripping Embiid on purpose.

[David Selig]

Raptors are attempting to break the record for the most useless playoff bench in the last 30 years.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

D’Angelo Russell was busted with that sticky icky in an airport.

Rookie

[DanteGabriel]

19 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

D’Angelo Russell was busted with that sticky icky in an airport.

Rookie

And who tipped off the cops that he had concealed some weed in a secret compartment in a can of iced tea? Somewhere Nick Young is steepling his fingers and murmuring "Excellent."

[SkynJay]

Does Iggy bail Russell out as a belated thank you then?

What a way to kill a comeback season.

[ESPOMAN]

Man I hope the WCF isn't Denver or Portland vs Warriors. Every game will start so late. Please Houston. 

[Argonath Diver]

I hear you. For the past ten years, I've worked night shifts at bars or been a 3am-to-bed type regardless, so living in New York it let me have some live sports to watch late night. I liked it. Now I'm back into a much earlier schedule, and often and going to bed right at tip-off. Sucks, as the Denver Portland series is the one I want to watch every game for over the rest of the matchups that generally have teams I dislike in one way or another.

Also, welcome to the forum! 

[Relic]

4 hours ago, ESPOMAN said:

Man I hope the WCF isn't Denver or Portland vs Warriors. Every game will start so late. Please Houston. 

imagine having to watch the game from central europe. 430am start times ftl

[Relic]

christ, what a game....

[ESPOMAN]

Four OTs is crazy. Game 4 will probably start off pretty slow. I remember the 6 OT Syracuse game ahh Jonny Flynn.

[SkynJay]

That may be a tide turner.  Denver only needs one win in Portland but they just ran Jokic to the ground.  Plumlee is unplayable, so I get it, but this game could haunt them.  According to the Ringer Jokic just played the forth most minutes ever.

The only good news was Barton coming back from the dead.  If he could hit a shot in the first half maybe Denver can actually maintain a lead when the bench comes out.