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Fragile Bird

US Politics: Don't Panic - Organize

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WTF is "consensual rape?"

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Posted (edited)

"consensual rape?"

that guy says it was misspoken.

Edited by sologdin

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Did he mis-speak or was he suggesting statutory rape is consensual? There are people who think age should not be relevant, as long as the child consents it should be legal. :stillsick::ack:

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Well he did also say that a lot of abortions are due to date rape. I think he's paying attention to the wrong thing in that instance.

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6 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Consensual rape is when you are working class and pull the lever for Republicans.

Hahaha, I want that on a tshirt.

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new Gulag Archipelago in the making - in the US.  Figure it'll only be a matter of time till the more able bodied sorts are loaned to prison factory's. One wonders if women convicted of having an abortion will be sent to these camps or others.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/trump-administration-prepares-to-release-central-american-migrants-across-the-entire-nation/ar-AABvRIH?ocid=ob-fb-enus-580&fbclid=IwAR2u6hlyd3hd-qMAjYZxUa6rwyA5zM4f0yokF2JXq_3d9FXXAUVdMpHMpSI

 

The Trump administration is preparing to send Central American migrants caught along the southern border to Border Patrol stations "across the entire nation," according to a senior Border Patrol official who confirmed the plans Friday.

With more than 4,500 people being caught each day crossing the U.S.-Mexico border, the agency has run out of room at its Border Patrol facilities in the four border states. The agency has started looking at its facilities around the country, which are mostly along the northern border with Canada and coastal states.

That means states from Oregon to North Dakota to Maine may begin receiving planeloads of migrant families in the weeks to come. On Tuesday, Customs and Border Protection sent its first plane full of migrants from Texas to San Diego. 

The official confirmed reports on Thursday that the Florida counties of Broward and Palm Beach are under consideration given the size and capabilities of Border Patrol stations in the South Florida region. But he did not say if the decision is final or when the flights would start.

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new Gulag Archipelago in the making - in the US

an appropriate term for it.  the US already has the largest carceral system in the world, both in absolute and per capita terms, and it is laden with crypto-political offenses.

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Posted (edited)

The following seems to go naturally with my personal, purely anecdotal experience of eavesdropping on young women talking with each other in the street.  One example, a perhaps 23-ish year old mixed race woman, talking with an Asian woman who seems the same age -- talking about Alabama's new abortion laws.  A second one, a perhaps 23-ish year old again woman, white, talking on her phone to a friend in another state, starting with, "Do you know what they did in Alabama?"

Quote

"Does Anyone Actually Want Joe Biden For President?"

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/opinion/joe-biden-president.html?

Quote

 

... polling is more reflective of name recognition than anything else; the two leading candidates for 2020, Mr. Biden and Bernie Sanders, are recognized by 98 percent of Democratic primary voters. This also makes early polls a poor barometer for electoral success. At this point in the lead-up to 2016, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker were the top contenders for the Republican nomination.

The case that people make for Mr. Biden’s electability is not that any one group of people is particularly excited by him, but that he stands the best chance of getting independents and perhaps even some moderate Republicans to cross over and vote Democratic; unenthusiastic lefties will nevertheless vote for him because this is an emergency and Donald Trump is so much worse. It’s Politics 101: The candidate closest to the median voter will scoop up the biggest share.

But getting elected is not about appealing to the bland median. It’s about appealing to the people who actually feel motivated to turn out and vote.

The Democratic Party of 2019 does not look much like Joe Biden. Women, African-American, Latino and Asian voters are all much more likely to say they support Democratic candidates than Republican ones. White voters, male voters and especially white male voters generally support Republicans.

Statistics on who votes Democratic also suggest that the Democratic Party is more diverse than the experts deciding who is electable.

Those assumptions about electability reflect entrenched biases more than political science, and have a dash of arrogance to boot. An electable candidate, the thinking goes, has to be authentic and broadly appealing. But authenticity itself is coded as white and male when it’s defined by white men.

This perpetual reading of the white working-class tea leaves (or beer hops?) only makes sense if those voters are actually more influential than all the others. In the Democratic Party, they’re not. Just under a third of white men without college degrees said they voted for a Democrat in the 2018 midterms. And Democrats don’t need anywhere near a majority of these men to win. Women vote in larger numbers than men; voters with college and post-graduate degrees turn out in larger shares than those without. These high-turnout groups are the same ones that are trending Democratic. If they're motivated to turn out to vote, a Democrat will wind up in the White House. . . .

 

 

Edited by Zorral

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2 hours ago, sologdin said:

new Gulag Archipelago in the making - in the US

an appropriate term for it.  the US already has the largest carceral system in the world, both in absolute and per capita terms, and it is laden with crypto-political offenses.

Not to mention that US prisoners arenoften used as cheap/free labour that (essentially) can't be refused.

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Decriminalized abortion -- no backlash; purely political (and anti-woman -- remember this war that has been going on since Nixon in particular, the War on Women?) politics.

https://twitter.com/HC_Richardson/status/1092882948465086465

When Roe V Wade became law, fewer Dems supported abortion than republicans.  Read the twitter feed link above to find out what happened . . . .

 

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3 hours ago, Zorral said:

The following seems to go naturally with my personal, purely anecdotal experience of eavesdropping on young women talking with each other in the street.  One example, a perhaps 23-ish year old mixed race woman, talking with an Asian woman who seems the same age -- talking about Alabama's new abortion laws.  A second one, a perhaps 23-ish year old again woman, white, talking on her phone to a friend in another state, starting with, "Do you know what they did in Alabama?"

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/17/opinion/joe-biden-president.html?

 

I think this article touched on the big question right now:

Is Biden's appeal this deep or is it just a name recognition thing that will fade as things get going a la Rudy G in 2008.  I do not know the answer.  

I loved a moment on Bill Maher last night with Fran Lebowitz who likes Warren as I do who said she's always disliked Biden (I think she actually said "hated") but also conceded she'd vote or him in a heartbeat if he's the nominee.

I really, really hope that this attitude reigns supreme amongst all non Trump people.  Let's have the primary process and figure out who the best nominee is, but whoever it is, no staying home and no making excuses.  Everyone need to rally around the eventual nominee whether it's Biden, Sanders, Warren, Harris, or other and get the monstrous joke of a President out of here.  

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Every time I see a lead line like “polling is just name recognition” I get more irritated. That rhetorical framing is naked motivated reasoning.

Reporters, wonks and analysts need a story so they take a conclusion that allows them to unilaterally invalidate the data so they can write their think pieces

maybe Biden’s enduring majorities and pluralities in literally every fucking poll taken since November 2016 is not actually reflective of what “insert issue article here” and rando journalist wants to write that day, but maybe just maybe that consistent trove of data in fact shows exactly what it proports to show: people really want Biden.

nothing more complicated, nothing less, if you think otherwise you’re just deluding yourself with what you already want to believe.

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

People really want Biden?  Which people? 

Nobody's polled me.

I don't want him.

 

Honestly? Probably lower-information voters who like his association with Obama. And to be clear, while they might be low-information voters they vote just as often (if not moreso) than the high-information ones, and there are a whole lot of them. 

They probably aren't on twitter all that much, and probably aren't out there at massive rallies (though Biden's rallies have done well so far). But they exist, and ignoring their existence is going to result in a lot of uncomfortable reality checking in the future. 

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But why is my existence being ignored and not even polled hmmmmmmmmmm?

And I've actively disliked Biden and his policies and those who have owned him for years, long before he was Obama's vp.  And I'm far from the only one.

Beyond that, one of those so-called low info voters you mention: I heard a lengthy interview with one of them on an NPR program this week.  He hates Biden too, blames him -- and the Dems -- for his misfortunes from the crash in which he lost his job and his house and had to live in his truck.  He blames Biden for actively protecting the banks and corps that did this to him, and the Dems generally for not regulating and not stopping them.  And then not helping him in his time of need.

He's doing brilliantly now, with his own construction biz in a small community north of Detroit.  He voted for T***p and loves him.  Thinks he's the best thing to happen to this country in a long time.  Everything he does wrong is what is to be expected and he doesn't care -- especially business wise, because that's what a person does to get ahead.  He wouldn't do biz with T***p himself because he's too smart, known his record of burning everyone he's worked with.  And if what he's doing now hurts others, he doesn't care because he's suffered and it's time others feel what he's suffered, especially the farmers who are always getting bail outs and subsidies.  He hates everyone, really, and feels T***p does too, and he likes that.  He wants us all to burn.

Yet he thinks the tariffs aren't going to hurt him at all -- his nails and all that steel he uses?  So what if it comes from China.  We'll make 'em here.

 

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I don't care if Jesus or Satan wins the Dem primary; I'm pulling the lever for them regardless in November 2020, without even having to hold my nose, because either will be better than Trump.

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2 hours ago, lokisnow said:

Reporters, wonks and analysts need a story so they take a conclusion that allows them to unilaterally invalidate the data so they can write their think pieces

Or maybe they're just properly interpreting the recent history of the data:

Quote

CBS began polling among Democratic primary voters in September 2003 — shortly after retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark entered the race. Clark (12 percent) was the frontrunner in that poll, followed by Congressman Dick Gephardt (10 percent) in second place and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (9 percent) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (9 percent) tied for third. The eventual nominee — Sen. John Kerry — came in fifth (8 percent). [...]

In March 2007, 36 percent of Democratic primary voters preferred Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee, ahead of Barack Obama (28 percent) and John Edwards (18 percent). Clinton would retain this frontrunner status right up until January 2008. [...]

In 2008, CBS News Republican primary polling began in May with former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (36 percent) in the lead — a lead he held through the remainder of 2007. Sen. John McCain (22 percent) came in second – ahead of Mitt Romney (15 percent) — but as other candidates entered the fray, in December he found himself tying for fourth place with Fred Thompson at just 7 percent. [...]

CBS primary polling for the 2012 election began in September 2011 with Rick Perry (23 percent) in the lead and Mitt Romney (16 percent) in second place.

It's not deluding oneself to to be suspect of polls this early, and it's perfectly fine to point to name recognition.  I'd venture to say suggesting it points to "people really [wanting] Biden" is a far more delusional statement.

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if Jesus or Satan wins

either over anyone else, really.  though we've read these literary experiments; it never goes over well.

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looks like at least one Republican congressman thinks Trump is guilty of impeachable offenses:

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gop-rep-president-trump-has-engaged-in-impeachable-conduct/ar-AABylVn?ocid=ob-fb-enus-580&fbclid=IwAR0d5wY1kBBXeFF6txiIDuZ7Qxqph_lgIwVUIvjGfEB8XdGrTX1muutD3OY

 

Congressman Justin Amash of Michigan penned a lengthy Twitter thread on Saturday afternoon, concluding that — after having read the full report from Special Counsel Robert Mueller — "President Trump has engaged in impeachable conduct," and "Attorney General [William] Barr has deliberately misrepresented Mueller’s report."

These were the top two of of four "principal conclusions" listed by Amash after what he described as a careful and compete reading of the full, but redacted 448-page Mueller report on the special counsel's investigation into Russian election interference and allegations the president obstructed justice.

Amash's two other topline conclusions were that "Partisanship has eroded our system of checks and balances," and "Few members of Congress have read the report."

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