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Tyrion1991

Is Young Griffs invasion filler?

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10 hours ago, Karneol said:

What if Viserys was the filler? We see in ADwD how hard they try to hide Aegon. Illyrio and Varys could have used him as a red herring for Robert and his loyalist. While Robert is doing every thing to get rid of the  aparent male heir meanwhile Illyrio could use his name for contracts he is making for Aegon like the GC. 

But Tristan Rivers believes the Golden Company was supposed to join Viserys III and his Dothraki - just as they later believe they were supposed to join Daenerys Targaryen and her dragons (in addition to Aegon).

If the Golden Company were specifically for Aegon then one should have expected that Viserys III would have gone to Westeros only with his Dothraki whereas Aegon and the Golden Company would come later to restore order after the civil war and Viserys III's invasion had only created chaos.

But this was apparently never the plan.

On 5/11/2019 at 7:08 PM, NonoNono said:

I could see him and Arianne getting married, at Storm's End, and Euron bringing the place down like in the story of the storm gods, and him surviving thanks to her. Could be a nice way for Euron to woo Dany or Cersei, depending on how either react to Aegon. It could push Aegon north, where he could meet Sansa, especially if she has reclaimed Winterfell's seat.

 I doubt Storm's End can be taken easily, even with magic. I could see Euron destroying Sunspear before he moved up the Narrow Sea to try to take KL, but Aegon should be there long before Euron even moves his ass out of the Summer Sea.

Sansa might indeed end up in team Aegon if the Vale were to declare for him. Then she certainly could become a rival of Arianne, and possibly even Aegon's second wife.

On 5/11/2019 at 7:46 PM, Loose Bolt said:

Why Aerys II trusted Varys enough to hire him? After all I am certain that he would not have hired a Blackfyre :(

That is an important question. Aerys II was already very paranoid when Varys came to court, so chances are very low he would have hired some foreign eunuch without good recommendations. But then - Jaehaerys I also just hired Rego Draz because of his reputation, so there is always a possibility. However, the Master of Whisperers should be a person you trust implicitly - especially if you use him mostly to spy on you court/people rather than foreign enemies.

23 hours ago, Crona said:

That’s my whole issue with the Blackfyre theory, they didn’t have a claimant when Varys came to KL so there was no reason for him to make Aerys paranoid or anything of the sort. I think he was simply doing his job.

I'd think the fact that FaB implies that Dany's three dragon eggs may be the ones Elissa Farman stole also strengthen this idea. Because this actually means that Illyrio threw three genuine dragon eggs - the only ones he had - on Daenerys Targaryen. That's something a Targaryen loyalist/supporter would do, not something a Blackfyre descendant hellbent on revenge would even consider. Because, seriously - if you set up this people to fail and/or exploit them for your own shady plans you are not likely to give them wealth and legitimacy and standing by giving them dragon eggs.

23 hours ago, Crona said:

On a re-read I came to the conclusion that Aegon is real. If you read the part where Varys killed Pycelle, the way he killed is very reminiscent of Aegon’s death and a very personal way to kill him. The only motivation I could think of that Varys would hate Pycelle that much is because Varys was trying to not open the gates but Pycelle vouched for Tywin causing Rhaenys and Elia’s deaths. That to me is Varys’ motivation, to have have revenge for those children.

I also think the Sack would be the main personal reason why Varys killed Pycelle. One has to keep in mind that Varys pointing to various (treasonous) courtiers and nobles isn't even remotely the same as butchering thousands or tens of thousands of Kingslanders during a brutal sack. A couple of dozen or scores - or even hundreds - of lords burning alive isn't even remotely in the same league as what Tywin did when he sacked KL.

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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

That is an important question. Aerys II was already very paranoid when Varys came to court, so chances are very low he would have hired some foreign eunuch without good recommendations. But then - Jaehaerys I also just hired Rego Draz because of his reputation, so there is always a possibility. However, the Master of Whisperers should be a person you trust implicitly - especially if you use him mostly to spy on you court/people rather than foreign enemies.

I do think Varys was hired as a recommendation in KL but I’m not sure who recommended him. I tend to lean toward the Dornish in court since Doran’s mother seemed to have a good relationship with Rhaella. Also Elia was proposed to Rhaegar one year after Varys came and Aerys stopped listening to Varys after he thought the Dornish betrayed him too.

Edited by Crona

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On 5/5/2019 at 8:24 PM, Tyrion1991 said:

In Crows and Dragons there is a definite shift towards the coming Targaryen invasion. Two of the great houses conspire to ally with Dany. Indeed if you read these chapters they act as if Dany is already a part of the Westeros storyline.

However Dany is clearly not setup to move towards Westeros. She’s locked in the struggles of Slavers Bay and has her whole deal with the Dothraki. She’s not getting to Westeros anytime soon. I would be amazed if she was there before mid ADOS. Even if Dany doesn’t conquer Essos and just rides off into the sunset towards Westeros. Too many plot lines, too many characters and too many meetings. GRRM can’t have failed to notice this issue. He clearly wants to pivot the plot towards Danys invasion; but can’t. Perhaps he simply wishes to add gravitas to it.

So, he creates another Targaryen claimant who gets there before Dany. This prevents Cersei tapping her foot waiting for Daenerys to show up for a whole book in TWOW. GRRM could have just done Eurons invasion or a Tyrell war but he wants to pivot the story so he had to make it about the Targaryens. 

I don’t think Aegon has been set up to take Kings Landing and displace the Lannister’s in the south. Not that you couldn’t make a story out of that. But he won’t for the same reason Stannis didn’t win the Blackwater. He would want to keep the Stark vs Lannister dimension and that goes away if Aegon wins.

The Stark vs Lannister dimension is over.  The Lannisters beat the crap out of the Starks.  It's only Arya, Jon, and Catelyn who are still carrying out the war.  Arya and Catelyn are both too obsessed with revenge.  Jon's judgment is too clouded with bias to properly carry out his duties at the Wall. 

Aegon is an important player.  He is the dragon on the cyvasse board.  Arrianne will use him but do it poorly.  She's too impatient.  She brings out the dragon too soon and that can get them both killed.  But perhaps not.  Cyvasse is real-world chess and the most powerful piece on the board is the queen.  The king is the most vulnerable piece.

Dany started out with one reason to go back to westeros.  Take back her family's kingdom from the usurpers and his allies.  It is Aegon who will certainly try to do that and judge the guilty.  It is obvious to me that George decided to keep Dany in Essos to stop slavery.  

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1 hour ago, Tour De Force said:

The Stark vs Lannister dimension is over.  The Lannisters beat the crap out of the Starks.  It's only Arya, Jon, and Catelyn who are still carrying out the war.  Arya and Catelyn are both too obsessed with revenge.  Jon's judgment is too clouded with bias to properly carry out his duties at the Wall. 

Aegon is an important player.  He is the dragon on the cyvasse board.  Arrianne will use him but do it poorly.  She's too impatient.  She brings out the dragon too soon and that can get them both killed.  But perhaps not.  Cyvasse is real-world chess and the most powerful piece on the board is the queen.  The king is the most vulnerable piece.

Dany started out with one reason to go back to westeros.  Take back her family's kingdom from the usurpers and his allies.  It is Aegon who will certainly try to do that and judge the guilty.  It is obvious to me that George decided to keep Dany in Essos to stop slavery.  

 

I don’t believe GRRM intends to keep Dany in Essos for the entire series. 

Dany can free the slaves and be the first to cross the Narrow Sea. The two are not mutually exclusive. Aegon could simply have been in Dorne this whole time.

Having him invade Westeros with a suspiciously similar sized army as Dany without Dragons is IMO subtle commentary on the wisdom of Dany waiting in Essos. Which is a theme of her story ever since the first book with Viserys. The longer she waits the stronger she gets, even if for no other reason than the dragons getting bigger. Aegon is doing exactly what Daenerys chose not to do in ASOS. So it’s up to GRRM to see whether he rewards this venture and makes Dany look foolish or if he vindicates her decision to stay in Essos.

Its filler because Aegons War will not have a major impact on the plot. The Lannister Tyrell alliance is already imploding. Him kicking in the door isn’t necessary except to turn a political crisis into a military one. His challenge to Dany as the mummers dragon doesn’t have to take the form of a war. GRRM has done that to have more action in the story (finally). If he conquers the south, he simply replaces the Lannister coalition, if he fails the Lannister coalition remains, if he achieves a stalemate; neither side should be strong enough to oppose Daenerys. And Winter is Coming.

I think GRRM wanted another war while we wait for Dany.

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4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If the Golden Company were specifically for Aegon then one should have expected that Viserys III would have gone to Westeros only with his Dothraki whereas Aegon and the Golden Company would come later to restore order after the civil war and Viserys III's invasion had only created chaos.

No one shouldn't expect that because it's a nonsensical theory completely plucked out of the air without any grounding in the text, at all. That the GC were to join with Viserys and the dothraki he would be heading does not imply they intended to sit Viserys on the throne, ever.

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21 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

No one shouldn't expect that because it's a nonsensical theory completely plucked out of the air without any grounding in the text, at all. That the GC were to join with Viserys and the dothraki he would be heading does not imply they intended to sit Viserys on the throne, ever.

Sorry, but the text states nowhere that the Golden Company was supposed to join Connington's dead prince. What Tristan Rivers states is that they were supposed to be joined by Viserys III and his Dothraki.

I was referring to the idea that Varys/Illyrio's endgame was to have Aegon and the Golden Company come in an the very end, after Viserys III and his Dothraki failed. And this was never anyone's plan. The plan was to have the Golden Company join Viserys III and his Dothraki - whether this means Aegon was supposed to join Viserys III is unclear at this point.

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5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Sorry, but the text states nowhere that the Golden Company was supposed to join Connington's dead prince. What Tristan Rivers states is that they were supposed to be joined by Viserys III and his Dothraki.

Nowhere does the text state the GC ever intended to crown Viserys or that they were ever for anyone other than Aegon. It is clear they knew about Aegon and that they intend to crown him. That if they were always for Aegon then there should have been a plan to sweep in after the dothraki ran amok over Westeros is a complete nonsense.

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2 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Nowhere does the text state the GC ever intended to crown Viserys or that they were ever for anyone other than Aegon. It is clear they knew about Aegon and that they intend to crown him. That if they were always for Aegon then there should have been a plan to sweep in after the dothraki ran amok over Westeros is a complete nonsense.

You are wrong:

Quote

"Which plan?" said Tristan Rivers. "The fat man's plan? The one that changes every time the moon turns? First Viserys Targaryen was to join us with fifty thousand Dothraki screamers at his back. Then the Beggar King was dead, and it was to be the sister, a pliable young child queen who was on her way to Pentos with three new-hatched dragons. Instead the girl turns up on Slaver's Bay and leaves a string of burning cities in her wake, and the fat man decides we should meet her by Volantis. Now that plan is in ruins as well.

This is all we know about the purpose of the Golden Company. Bringing Aegon alone to the Golden Company, before they have secured Dany and the dragons, is not the plan. That's why Lemore is wary when Connington decides to do that after they learn that Dany doesn't seem to be coming.

But if the Golden Company - not Aegon and the Golden Company, just the Golden Company - were originally supposed to join with Viserys III then they clearly were part of a plan/movement to seat that guy on the Iron Throne.

After all, while Viserys III was still alive he was the king, not 'Prince Aegon' - who still isn't a king. If Aegon would have joined with Viserys III and the Golden Company - which may have been the plan, or not, we don't know yet - then he would have been as responsible for the civil war and the Dothraki butchery, etc. as Viserys III, Drogo, and the Golden Company.

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On 5/6/2019 at 6:03 PM, chrisdaw said:

As far as showing anyone anything, no-one will know Varys orchestrated or just helped along the Faith and Tyrell conflict, and Aegon will appear a peacemaker and friend of the Faith. As to Varys's conscience, Varys intended(s) to bring over a horde of dothraki to put his boy on the throne. He wants a just and competent ruler and he's prepared to accept the damage bill that comes with bringing it about as he considers that the lesser evil.

he wants a blackfyre

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2 hours ago, Tyrion1991 said:

I think GRRM wanted another war while we wait for Dany.

The books will have two land battles.  The Battle of Fire in Slaver's Bay and the Battle of Ice in the north.  The third battle will be naval.  Asha's fleet takes on Euron's in the biggest sea battle since Blackwater.  It will be big.  Aurane, the Redwynes, and the Manderly fleet might get involved.  George is not going to fill the last two books with battles.  

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3 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You are wrong:

This is all we know about the purpose of the Golden Company. Bringing Aegon alone to the Golden Company, before they have secured Dany and the dragons, is not the plan. That's why Lemore is wary when Connington decides to do that after they learn that Dany doesn't seem to be coming.

But if the Golden Company - not Aegon and the Golden Company, just the Golden Company - were originally supposed to join with Viserys III then they clearly were part of a plan/movement to seat that guy on the Iron Throne.

After all, while Viserys III was still alive he was the king, not 'Prince Aegon' - who still isn't a king. If Aegon would have joined with Viserys III and the Golden Company - which may have been the plan, or not, we don't know yet - then he would have been as responsible for the civil war and the Dothraki butchery, etc. as Viserys III, Drogo, and the Golden Company.

Viserys was already crowned  and named King Viserys III.  And I have to disagree with those who believe Westeros will not be receptive to a Targaryen restoration.  Most will want the dragons back after what the Starks and the Lannisters did to Westeros.  Westeros is worse off now than it ever was during the 300 years of Targaryen rule.  The Baratheons proved themselves unable to hold the kingdom together.  Robert failed to keep the Starks and the Lannisters under control.  

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18 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

You are wrong:

This is all we know about the purpose of the Golden Company. Bringing Aegon alone to the Golden Company, before they have secured Dany and the dragons, is not the plan. That's why Lemore is wary when Connington decides to do that after they learn that Dany doesn't seem to be coming.

But if the Golden Company - not Aegon and the Golden Company, just the Golden Company - were originally supposed to join with Viserys III then they clearly were part of a plan/movement to seat that guy on the Iron Throne.

After all, while Viserys III was still alive he was the king, not 'Prince Aegon' - who still isn't a king. If Aegon would have joined with Viserys III and the Golden Company - which may have been the plan, or not, we don't know yet - then he would have been as responsible for the civil war and the Dothraki butchery, etc. as Viserys III, Drogo, and the Golden Company.

No I'm not wrong. It is exactly as I said, you're implying what isn't in the text and what causes the text to make no sense. He says the plan was to join with Viserys and his dothraki, not that they ever meant to crown Viserys. It is not at all implied there would be no Aegon in this scenario, the GC leaders don't need to say it's all for the purpose of crowning Aegon because that's just a given to them. And everything fits. In contrast for there to have been a plan with no Aegon but to crown Viserys makes a contradictory mess out of Illyrio and Varys.

Viserys is known as the beggar king, that's meaningless.

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15 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

No I'm not wrong. It is exactly as I said, you're implying what isn't in the text and what causes the text to make no sense. He says the plan was to join with Viserys and his dothraki, not that they ever meant to crown Viserys. It is not at all implied there would be no Aegon in this scenario, the GC leaders don't need to say it's all for the purpose of crowning Aegon because that's just a given to them. And everything fits. In contrast for there to have been a plan with no Aegon but to crown Viserys makes a contradictory mess out of Illyrio and Varys.

Viserys is known as the beggar king, that's meaningless.

Can you point out textual evidence that the Golden Company intended to take Aegon with them when they went to Westeros with Viserys III and his Dothraki? If not, then you cannot claim they would have done that. In fact, we don't even know whether the Golden Company knew that they were working with Jon Connington. Strickland knew, and it is implied that he told his officers when they decided to break that contract to go to Volantis, but this doesn't mean anybody in the Golden Company ever knew they were working with some Aegon after the death of Myles Toyne.

There is no need to crown Viserys III, he has been crowned on Dragonstone.

But I'm not sure whether you even understand my point: If Viserys III's Dothraki and the Golden Company were to drag Aegon with them to Westeros, then Aegon would be as 'impressive' a potential savior and hero as Viserys III himself - because he would be part of the Dothraki/Golden Company invasion, and of all of his uncle's decisions.

This basically destroys the idea that Aegon was some sort of clever endgame, the guy who is supposed to bring the peace and clean up the mess. He would have been part of the destructive war and part of the mess.

It is certainly possible that Varys/Illyrio planned to murder Viserys III after he had publicly acknowledged Prince Aegon as his presumptive heir, etc. But that wouldn't have made Aegon look brighter and more savior-like if he came to prominence and power as a member of Viserys III's restoration war - assuming Viserys III's war would have been very bloody and cruel. Which we have no way of knowing at this point.

It is also rather laughable to assume that the Golden Company would have had much influence with Viserys III. He had made that bargain with Drogo, and Drogo promised him at least 10,000 Dothraki, something that was expanded after the attempt on Dany to Drogo's entire khalasar - 40,000 men cavalry, about 100,000 people in total.

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40 minutes ago, Damsel in Distress said:

Viserys was already crowned  and named King Viserys III.  And I have to disagree with those who believe Westeros will not be receptive to a Targaryen restoration.  Most will want the dragons back after what the Starks and the Lannisters did to Westeros.  Westeros is worse off now than it ever was during the 300 years of Targaryen rule.  The Baratheons proved themselves unable to hold the kingdom together.  Robert failed to keep the Starks and the Lannisters under control.  

See above. We do indeed not know how much success Viserys III would have had had he invaded Westeros, say, in the middle of the War of the Five Kings with 40,000 Dothraki and 10,000 men from the Golden Company. Could have been a very short campaign with everybody falling over themselves to do him homage. He would have had Dorne, he would have had Targaryen loyalists in the Reach (especially after Renly's sudden death), and there would have been Riverlords pushing Robb to bent the knee to the Targaryen king. Even the Vale may have declared for Viserys III.

After all, with the Targaryens it is not so much their ability or anything - it is the magical name, the magical looks, and the history that comes with that. 

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7 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Can you point out textual evidence that the Golden Company intended to take Aegon with them when they went to Westeros with Viserys III and his Dothraki?

Only that everything makes sense that way. On the other hand you can't point to anything in the text suggesting they would make Viserys king of Westeros, and that line of thinking also makes no sense out of a bunch of shit. 

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3 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Only that everything makes sense that way. On the other hand you can't point to anything in the text suggesting they would make Viserys king of Westeros, and that line of thinking also makes no sense out of a bunch of shit. 

Everything we have indicates that seating Viserys III on the Iron Throne was part of the plan. After all, he was the one with the Dothraki deal. Do you think for a second that Drogo and his screamers would have replaced Dany's brother (or Drogo's own son) with some blue-haired boy nobody could prove was even a Targaryen?

It also seems likely Varys/Illyrio eventually wanted to replace Viserys III with his alleged nephew, Prince Aegon. But we have no evidence for that at this point, nor any indication when this was supposed to happen. However, it seems to be clear that it was not supposed to happen before they had gone to Westeros. That can be drawn from the Tristan Rivers quote I gave you above.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, silverwolf22 said:

he wants a blackfyre

That's not proven.  It is a nice theory but very far from proven.  Young Griff can be anybody who had the right look.  He's not filler material, true born or not.  Most of the action from here on out will take place in Essos, South of Westeros, and the Wall.  Daenerys is the protagonists in Essos.  Stannis and Jon are the main people at the Wall.  The South needs its own hero.  Enter Young Griff.  Each protagonists will fight her or his battle.  

Edited by Mordred

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I think in order to try to work out what Illyrio & Varys may have been planning from the start it is best to go right back to AGOT and look at what we are told by the author. 

I'm gonna start with this one from 

AGOT: Arya III

Quote

Arya peered over the edge and felt the cold black breath on her face. Far below, she saw the light of a single torch, small as the flame of a candle. Two men, she made out. Their shadows writhed against the sides of the well, tall as giants. She could hear their voices, echoing up the shaft.

"… found one bastard," one said. "The rest will come soon. A day, two days, a fortnight …"

"And when he learns the truth, what will he do?" a second voice asked in the liquid accents of the Free Cities.

"The gods alone know," the first voice said. Arya could see a wisp of grey smoke drifting up off the torch, writhing like a snake as it rose. "The fools tried to kill his son, and what's worse, they made a mummer's farce of it. He's not a man to put that aside. I warn you, the wolf and lion will soon be at each other's throats, whether we will it or no."

"Too soon, too soon," the voice with the accent complained. "What good is war now? We are not ready. Delay."

"As well bid me stop time. Do you take me for a wizard?"

The other chuckled. "No less." Flames licked at the cold air. The tall shadows were almost on top of her. An instant later the man holding the torch climbed into her sight, his companion beside him. Arya crept back away from the well, dropped to her stomach, and flattened herself against the wall. She held her breath as the men reached the top of the steps.

"What would you have me do?" asked the torchbearer, a stout man in a leather half cape. Even in heavy boots, his feet seemed to glide soundlessly over the ground. A round scarred face and a stubble of dark beard showed under his steel cap, and he wore mail over boiled leather, and a dirk and shortsword at his belt. It seemed to Arya there was something oddly familiar about him.

"If one Hand can die, why not a second?" replied the man with the accent and the forked yellow beard. "You have danced the dance before, my friend." He was no one Arya had ever seen before, she was certain of it. Grossly fat, yet he seemed to walk lightly, carrying his weight on the balls of his feet as a water dancer might. His rings glimmered in the torchlight, red-gold and pale silver, crusted with rubies, sapphires, slitted yellow tiger eyes. Every finger wore a ring; some had two.

"Before is not now, and this Hand is not the other," the scarred man said as they stepped out into the hall. Still as stone, Arya told herself, quiet as a shadow. Blinded by the blaze of their own torch, they did not see her pressed flat against the stone, only a few feet away.

"Perhaps so," the forked beard replied, pausing to catch his breath after the long climb. "Nonetheless, we must have time. The princess is with child. The khal will not bestir himself until his son is born. You know how they are, these savages."

The man with the torch pushed at something. Arya heard a deep rumbling. A huge slab of rock, red in the torchlight, slid down out of the ceiling with a resounding crash that almost made her cry out. Where the entry to the well had been was nothing but stone, solid and unbroken.

"If he does not bestir himself soon, it may be too late," the stout man in the steel cap said. "This is no longer a game for two players, if ever it was. Stannis Baratheon and Lysa Arryn have fled beyond my reach, and the whispers say they are gathering swords around them. The Knight of Flowers writes Highgarden, urging his lord father to send his sister to court. The girl is a maid of fourteen, sweet and beautiful and tractable, and Lord Renly and Ser Loras intend that Robert should bed her, wed her, and make a new queen. Littlefinger … the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing. Yet Lord Stark's the one who troubles my sleep. He has the bastard, he has the book, and soon enough he'll have the truth. And now his wife has abducted Tyrion Lannister, thanks to Littlefinger's meddling. Lord Tywin will take that for an outrage, and Jaime has a queer affection for the Imp. If the Lannisters move north, that will bring the Tullys in as well. Delay, you say. Make haste, I reply. Even the finest of jugglers cannot keep a hundred balls in the air forever."

"You are more than a juggler, old friend. You are a true sorcerer. All I ask is that you work your magic awhile longer." They started down the hall in the direction Arya had come, past the room with the monsters.

"What I can do, I will," the one with the torch said softly. "I must have gold, and another fifty birds."

She let them get a long way ahead, then went creeping after them. Quiet as a shadow.

So many?" The voices were fainter as the light dwindled ahead of her. "The ones you need are hard to find … so young, to know their letters … perhaps older … not die so easy …"

"No. The younger are safer … treat them gently …"

"… if they kept their tongues …"

"… the risk …"

Long after their voices had faded away, Arya could still see the light of the torch, a smoking star that bid her follow.

Here Varys & Illyrio discuss the fact that Ned is on the way to discovering the twincest. And Illyrio is panicking that it is too soon.  What good is war now. So their plan obviously does include a civil war in Westeros Prior to the arrival of Viserys, the Dothraki, and the Golden Company - with or without fAegon in tow.

But they want that civil war to only happen when they are ready to swoop in and take advantage of the depleted armies and the inevitable taste for regime change the waring will bring amongst the smallfolk and the Faith, the Maesters, & the lower nobility who have no real power of their own and are forced to go along with their liege lords whims.  

As much as we have always assumed the Dothraki will cause resentment of Viserys' arrival. I'm not sure we can absolutely count on it. It rather depends on what they do with the Dothraki and how much control Drogo is able to keep over them. 

Illyrio thinks that Varys could try to swing Ned over to their side. The hand they discuss as "Dying" is not Jon Arryn as the reader assumes; we later learn it was not Varys but LF who orchestrated his death. But Jon Connington who Varys helped to fake the death of in order to bring him over to their cause via persuading him fAegon was Rhaegars son. 

You have danced this dance before suggests that Varys has staved off some conflict of something before because they were not yet ready. My guess is that that was the rebellion and the fact that Illyrio's son was not ready yet. Either because he was not yet born or perhaps just born and not old enough for their plan. Varys wanted to hold off the overthrowing of Aerys and both tried to prevent Rhaegars usurpation and urged Aerys to keep the gates closed when Tywin came a knocking. This all makes sense, Varys is trying to play a careful game balancing the increasing unhappiness with Aerys as a king with the waiting game for their boy to be old enough to be welcomed as a viable alternative. A genuine "Blackfyre" rebellion was the original plan in my view. Varys knew Rhaegar de-throning his father and taking the IT would screw up the plan as he was a much loved and far different man. Hence why he warned Aerys of the council set to happen at Harrenhall.  If fAegon is a year or two older than Aegon would have been as Tyrion guestimates his age then he would have been an infant at this time. 

Then the following year Rhaegar does the unexpected and ultimately war results. Rhaegar is dead ridding Varys and Illyrio of the heir who would stand in their boys way. And Varys thinks if he can hold KL they are in with a chance of averting the overthrowing of the dynasty by Jon Arryn and his two wards.  But Pycelle screws it all up by getting Aerys to open the gates and that's the end of that. in the after math though a new plan emerges one which takes advantage of the fact that Rhaegars baby boy was murdered in the sack. And that plan is to pass their boy the son of Illyrio & Serra off as that baby. Varys approaches Jon Conningto who is exiled and tells him of the Piss Water Prince, hands over Illyrio's young son and they set about teaching him everything they believe a man needs to know to be a great king. 

After biding their time the plan involving Drogo is born, just as fAegon has hit the right age for people to see him as a viable King.  But disaster! First Jon Arryn and now Ned Stark are in danger of discovering the twincest, which undoubtedly was the pairs plan for rocking the Baratheon dynasty to it's knees.  And they are not yet ready for the inevitable Baratheon-Lannister civil war that will result from Robert discovering his Queen's betrayals.  Varys knows Ned though and Ned is not Jon Connington. Ned won't side with Rhaegars boy because Robert is as a brother to him and the Lannisters have tried to kill his son, causing an inevitable hatred and desire for revenge upon them.  If Ned discovers the twincest he will do the right thing and go straight to Robert. No matter what Varys tries offering him. 

Illyrio insists they must have time because of Danaerys's pregnancy and the fact Drogo will not agree to move on Westeros until after the baby is born. So their plan involves moving pretty quickly once the incest is out. A pregnancy only lasts 9/10 months and one would expect the civil war to rage at least that long. But I suppose that may still be long enough for a decisive win by one side or the other? I think it might be helpful to try to work out how far on Dany is at this point. 

Varys basically tells Illyrio next that he will try his best but that too many people are acting outside of his influence and doing things which will cause war. Stannis & Lysa have both left court and are gathering swords. There is a plot to remove the incestuous unfaithful Queen who they are planning on using to cause war when they want it. That would kick things off too soon potentially too as Tywin is unlikely to take it lying down, and Cat has acted in a way which will also provoke Tywin. Whilst Ned is about to discover the secret before they are ready for it to be out. War is coming. Illyrio tries to assure Varys he will manage it and then the conversation shifts.  

Here I have set out both what we learn from the excerpt and my own feelings about what the two of them were up to behind the scenes all this time. 

I'm still unsure about what the plan was with Viserys though and think we will have to delve into Dany's early AGOT chapters to guess. 

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Having had a brief look into Dany's earliest AGOT chapters a few things strike me. 

Firstly the plan seems to hinge entirely upon Drogo wishing to wed Dany and giving ten thousand Dothraki over to Viserys to invade Westeros. There is no implication that Dany will travel with them to do so. But ordinarily a wife would be expecting to join her husbands household and live his life. So realistically Dany was never going home. She would live in Pentos in Drogo's mance after the return journey.  But from the Arya chapter we know Illyrio was expecting Drogo to participate and lead his men, and that he won't do so until after his son is born. Dany is dressed up to look every inch the Valyrian princess and taken to be viewed by Drogo. Viserys answers her questions about why Illyrio is helping them and he naively thinks that it is because he will have the power to bestow gifts or some other benefit on the man.  But Illyrio has no need of gifts. We see in that chapter and in subsequent ones from Tyrion that Illyrio has wealth greater than anyone could imagine. His speech to Tyrion doesn't add up one little bit either. What use has he of being master of coin, he tells the dwarf that he dislikes Westerosi culture with their silly little animal badges etc. It is clear Illyrio has personal reasons for what he does.

Dany whose instincts are more well honed than Viserys' tells us she does not trust Illyrio one bit and when Viserys talks of personally killing the Usurper Robert Baratheon Illyrio gives a sly smile. That Dany spots. This rather implies Illyrio has no intention that Viserys should ever get the chance to kill Robert. 

At the mance Jorah swears fealty to Viserys and joins them, and that night Dany has her first dragon dream; the eggs are undoubtedly in the vicinity awaiting the wedding, she is ungainly; pregnant, and her thighs slick with blood, that is the birth of Rhaego which will lead to the birth of dragons. Ignore viserys kicking her he is irrelevant here it is all about bringing the phrase wake dragons into the dream. And into association with Danaerys.  Dany is a Targaryen who now has Dragon Dreams. And those continue throughout. This one is prophesising what will befall her.

Illyrio has no use of Viserys and has ignored him his whole life. Leaving him to beg but as soon as Dany becomes a valuable commodity he shows an interest. Here Dany can buy him 10,000 Dothraki to supplement the GC. And he has no qualms about selling her off. In the very same chapter she describes how Illyrio is known to have never had a friend he would not sell to benefit himself.  

So here GRRM has introduced Dany and Viserys, made it clear Viserys is a dickhead and she is the protagonist here. Introduced Illyrio who he has shown us is both immensely rich and not to be trusted. And given him a motivation for what he is doing - to gain 10,000 dothraki warriors. Not to help Viserys at all but for his own means. He's sold Dany to Drogo to get them, and clearly has no intention of seeing Viserys realise his dream to kill Robert. Viserys will I think have always died at some point in the war. Or soon after.  fAegon is and always has been his play.

My guess is that logically Illyrio would have approached Drogo to buy the Dothraki, perhaps even offering the three dragon eggs as payment/gifts.  But that Drogo wanted a price beyond gold and riches. he wanted flesh. A beautiful young woman of the most noble birth is a valuable commodity.  It is made clear that Drogo is unusual for a Khal and this is why he desires Dany as a bride. And so I think this was the only reason Illyrio ever approached Viserys.  Viserys is a device to have looked after Dany all this time. And he isn't needed going forward so the author is going to have to kill him off somehow and the road to Vas Dothrak is the method. So the author introduces a new personal body guard for her in the form of Jorah. The brother can not be the one to keep her safe after Drogo dies and she hatches her dragons as he would want to go straight to Westeros and she as his younger sister would do as he asked. She needs to become autonomous. With no influences to sway her path. Jorah is her devoted sworn shield, he advises but she isn't obliged to take his advice.  

So my best guess is that whilst GRRM had Illyrio initially plan on Viserys invading with the GC and the Dothraki he was not going to be allowed to sit the IT and would have been disposed of the minute the Dothraki had done their job.  With his brother in law dead Drogo would be inclined to take his Dothraki back to Pentos and return to his bride and child.  And fAegon would then be lined up for the IT. 

Imagine it. The GC and the Dothraki invade, many lords pledge allegiance to Targaryen restoration and join him. they win against the fractured Lannister and Baratheon forces who have been split by the revelation of the Twincest.   All the while Varys has been letting slip to the westerosi lords that Rhaegars son lives and is fighting on the front line in the GC's ranks; Whilst Viserys has inevitably been shirking it at the back of the armies on a horse surrounded by guards. That whips up respect and chunterings of who would make the better king. A few whispers of being too like his father etc and you have a plot emerging from the jaws of what Viserys views as his victory.  But Illyrio can not risk Dany sending her husband to avenge poor Viserys so chances are high that he would have found his death via treachery on the battle field once enough lords are liking the notion of Aegon VI.  With Viserys gone and the war all but over Drogo takes his warriors back to Pentos and fAegon is crowned. 

I think that was the plan as it stood at the start of AGOT. Do I think Illyrio foolish to imagine the Dothraki would behave in Westeros and not cause huge disapproval amongst the Lords there? not sure. But if Viserys brought the Dothraki and that happens surely it only plays better into the plan to turn the lords against him at the final hour with tales of how his nephew has fought bravely, selflessly; no ambitions to take the IT for himself, and always disapproved of the use of Dothraki screamers. 

Bringing me to the final why on earth?? why did Illyrio give Dany the dragon eggs. Well maybe they were simply part of her bride price. If as I suggested above Illyrio tried to buy dothraki swords first by the means of what he already had in his possession, then those eggs would surely have been offered. Drogo's counter might well have been, throw in the eggs too but what I desire is a bride with silver hair and violet eyes.  Find me one and you will have the swords. Dany notes that Illyrio is paid a fortune in horses and slaves for his part in arranging the marriage. So that means Illyrio is being paid twice. Once at the wedding and again when those Dothraki do his bidding and invade. Not that it worked out like that. But this is a deposit on the debt owed for his bride and those eggs.  

Or if not simply more payment for drogo, perhaps as something else. Such as a genuine gift to Dany from Illyrio. Her beauty struck him so much he had to prevent himself taking her for himself. Perhaps as investment in anticipation that Drogo can die and she would make the perfect bride for fAegon in a year or two or three. Once they've seated him on the IT. Drogo after all if it is planned as it sounds in the Arya chapter will lead the dothraki. Could he simply die in Westeros? or on the way home poisoned with say the tears of lys  to look like nothing more than a bad sea stomach. Varys & Illyrio can plan all sorts of things and this is not beyond reason. if one needs explanation to accept things which are on the page. 

But in my view it really isn't that important to work out why Illyrio gave her them, because it is GRRM giving her them and we see that when we examine her bride gifts from Illyrio, Viserys, and Jorah. Each is something to help her survive the dothraki and become capable of taking westeros . 

Books about the 7 kingdoms

slaves to teach her how to please her khal and how to fit in with the dothraki. One to teach her to ride, one the language, and another in the arts of love. 

and finally the dragon eggs. 

These are Georges gifts to her.  

 

  

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