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U.S. Politics: You Didn't Think It Would Be So Easy, Did You?


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45 minutes ago, Triskele said:

So even more points for Warren then?  

Well, I lean Harris. I was somewhat concerned about Warren falling prey to Trump's bullshit. I would definitely consider voting for her though and she has great policy ideas. I stared out though leaning Warren.

I will vote against anyone going on Fox News though. Much as I would vote against anyone that decided to purposely detail Pence's cars and iron his shirts.

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Perhaps the same question could be asked of you, based on your responses, particularly the incredibly racist and lame bit about there aren't that many black women who vote.  You know nothing about this country and who is getting things done everywhere to say such a stupid thing.

I never said that.  I said that there aren't that many of them.  Black women make up 6-7% of the electorate and 6-7% of the population. 

 

This strongly suggests your contention is about her interpretation of the primary electorate - which she did also mention quite a bit (and was clear about bringing up the contrast between the 2018 midterm electorate, btw).  In terms of attacking that op-ed because she's saying the Democratic electorate is getting more diverse?  That's actually reading the statistics perfectly fine, and there's no legitimate reason to criticize that point.  Again (I posted this links earlier in the week), In terms of trends, the Dem primary electorate

IS becoming more diverse and educated, especially when you just focus on the early states:

 

This is just a deeply bad misreading of things.  The arguments in the op-ed are about being electable in the general presidential election of 2020.   She makes the case that Biden doesn't look like the party by citing voting percentages rather than overall numbers which is just dumb.

 

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2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Warren is the candidate that if humans were worth saving would be the best choice. 

Meh, you know how many policy shops have cooked up what she's selling?  It's not like she's mining gold, all this shit is available to any candidate.

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23 minutes ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

Black women make up 6-7% of the electorate and 6-7% of the population.

Oh, sorry didn't realize this was a response to me.  Um, k, you're probably right there.  So?  I already explained why I think it's important to recognize the increasing diversity in the Dem electorate.  If you'd like to have an adult conversation about that, great.  But this?  No.

26 minutes ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

This is just a deeply bad misreading of things.  The arguments in the op-ed are about being electable in the general presidential election of 2020.   She makes the case that Biden doesn't look like the party by citing voting percentages rather than overall numbers which is just dumb.

No, it's not.  I am fairly highly trained in statistics and I don't know what you mean by "voting percentages" as opposed to "overall numbers."  They're all percentages, unless you wanna talk about the actual count, which no one does.  Again, the point she was making was that the Dem primary electorate is becoming more diverse.  Can you refute that?  Does the data refute that?

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10 hours ago, DMC said:

Oh, sorry didn't realize this was a response to me.  Um, k, you're probably right there.  So?  I already explained why I think it's important to recognize the increasing diversity in the Dem electorate.  If you'd like to have an adult conversation about that, great.  But this?  No.

Why would me responding to Zorral have anything to do with you?  You are shockingly good at misreading things. 

10 hours ago, DMC said:

No, it's not.  I am fairly highly trained in statistics and I don't know what you mean by "voting percentages" as opposed to "overall numbers."  They're all percentages, unless you wanna talk about the actual count, which no one does.  Again, the point she was making was that the Dem primary electorate is becoming more diverse.  Can you refute that?  Does the data refute that?

No, you're reading comprehension is terrible.  Jill Filipovic doesn't mention primary voters in that piece.  Not once. Not ever.  Never.

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15 hours ago, DMC said:

Meh, you know how many policy shops have cooked up what she's selling?  It's not like she's mining gold, all this shit is available to any candidate.

Oh, I'm sure - though she seems to be the only person out there routinely actually looking into policy shops and looking into concrete solutions. I think she does care about the details and about getting workable, sane policy done. 

I agree with you entirely that policy doesn't matter as far as getting elected. Vision does, charisma does, the economy does - but the actual "I want to change this and this is precisely how"? No, it doesn't matter. It really should matter to good governance - we should have policy ideas well before we run, and know how we're going to at least think about things - but it doesn't. 

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There doesn't seem to be much talk of Andrew Yang on here. He seems centristy, which goes against the grain of almost everyone here, but at the same time he seems like he's on board with the major issue of our time (climate change) and has made positive noises about the Green New Deal.

He also has a very calming voice and demeanour, which might be a velvet glove hiding a set of knuckle dusters, or he might actually be trying to change the nature of political discourse.

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10 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

There doesn't seem to be much talk of Andrew Yang on here. He seems centristy, which goes against the grain of almost everyone here, but at the same time he seems like he's on board with the major issue of our time (climate change) and has made positive noises about the Green New Deal.

He also has a very calming voice and demeanour, which might be a velvet glove hiding a set of knuckle dusters, or he might actually be trying to change the nature of political discourse.

People don't talk about him because he has no chance of winning, or even lasting very long. His ceiling is a cabinet position, at best.

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Just now, Tywin et al. said:

People don't talk about him because he has no chance of winning, or even lasting very long. His ceiling is a cabinet position, at best.

Oscar Wilde's quote comes to mind. The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about. If people talked about him more he might have a chance, but since people don't think he has a chance people aren't talking about him, so he has no chance.

People thought Trump had no chance, but they (the media in particular) couldn't stop talking about his ridiculousness and gave his core campaign elements free airtime everywhere and whenever they could, which somehow attracted a constituency. And we ended up here.

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16 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Oscar Wilde's quote comes to mind. The only thing worse than being talked about is not being talked about. If people talked about him more he might have a chance, but since people don't think he has a chance people aren't talking about him, so he has no chance.

I think you'd have a point if eight people were running, but the number is over 20 now and he's among the least qualified candidates. There's just nothing to talk about, and that's before you consider Trump and how much attention he eats up.

Quote

People thought Trump had no chance, but they (the media in particular) couldn't stop talking about his ridiculousness and gave his core campaign elements free airtime everywhere and whenever they could, which somehow attracted a constituency. And we ended up here.

I said he had a chance the moment his polling jumped from nothing to the teens in the beginning. And I warned people very loudly that he was a terrible match up for someone like Hillary.

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6 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

Why would me responding to Zorral have anything to do with you?  You are shockingly good at misreading things. 

Or, maybe I was just trying to advance the discussion?

6 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

No, you're reading comprehension is terrible.  Jill Filipovic doesn't mention primary voters in that piece.  Not once. Not ever.  Never.

Uh, what the fuck are you talking about?  Yes she does, over and over:  

Quote

It is true that Mr. Biden is polling ahead of the other Democrats in the field by a large margin, including with women and voters of color. This early in the race, though, polling is more reflective of name recognition than anything else; the two leading candidates for 2020, Mr. Biden and Bernie Sanders, are recognized by 98 percent of Democratic primary voters. [..]

Statistics on who votes Democratic also suggest that the Democratic Party is more diverse than the experts deciding who is electable.

That you can't comprehend when she shifts the discussion from primary to general electorate, that's on you, my lord.

3 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Oh, I'm sure - though she seems to be the only person out there routinely actually looking into policy shops and looking into concrete solutions. I think she does care about the details and about getting workable, sane policy done. 

Agreed.  I can't deny her credit there.  I just think she's a bad politician.  And she's demonstrated as much.

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Though I don't agree with her thinking on impeachment -- I think I don't? -- still Pelosi is really good at goading and getting the ignorant's goat: I paraphrase:  "He's just not up to the meeting the challenge of an infrastructure deal.  He's not able to make those great deals that other presidents like Eisenhower made about infrastructrure."

Oooooo that's got to be like itching powder in the jock. :laugh:

hy is the media not even mentioning the total staged temper tantrum? He walks into a meeting, makes his pre-planned speech about infrastructure  Nobody else had said anything before he moment he walked in, and certainly not about infrastructure.  Then he storms out, to the already set-up podium with stats stapled to the front, in the Rose Garden and yelled out his wholly made-up bs of what happened.  Entirely staged.  So why aren't the media saying that?  They just blither on as though they are puzzled.

He's been holding up everything, and particularly infrastructure, first to get his wall, then calling the wall infrastructure, but mostly to obstruct investigation into his multitude of crimes past, present and future.

He's digging, digging, digging his holes, even down into China, and that's not helping either.  they aren't bolt holes as he seems to think they are, they are his grave.  Or, one can hope, his prison cell.

 

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3 hours ago, Zorral said:

Annette Gordon-Reed gets frisky on twitter:

 

It didn’t end anywhere near the 18th century. My grandfather was a fairly high ranking military officer in WW2, and he was part of the leadership units that went to Nagasaki after the bomb dropped. His descriptions of what he saw were horrific. But anyways, he was changed with leading the roundup of weapons in all the surrounding villages. At each location he would meet with the town’s Chief of Police (top Japanese official in the area) and collect all the munitions. One CoP asked him how many girls he and his soldiers would require. Horrified, he declined, but curiosity got the best of him and he asked how he could even make that happen given the extensive damage the island had taken? The CoP told him he’d go to the noble families and demand their daughters.

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Talk about losing on multiple fronts. New York has passed legislation making it easier to get Trump’s state taxes while at the same time a judge has ruled that Deutsche Bank and Capital One can give the House Trump’s financial records.  

The walls are closing in.

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One thing I (or rather it seems the USA in general) have against Biden, Sanders and Warren is that the country seems to only ever elect under 60s Democrats as president.

Wilson - 56

Roosevelt - 51

Kennedy - 43

LBJ - 55

Carter - 52

Clinton  - 46

Obama - 47

Average of age of Democratic presidents when first taking office over the last century: 50

Really, if you're over 60 and you want to be president you need to be a Republican, it would seem.

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9 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Hey guys, if any of you need a good pair of running shoes, time is running out. A $150 pair is going to be $210 or $220 after the tariffs hit. I understand good work boots go up even more.

Sounds like China is digging in for the long haul, too.

The trade war is forcing China to ‘rethink economic ties’ to the US

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/22/trade-war-forcing-china-to-rethink-economic-ties-with-the-us.html

Quote

 

While China is open to resuming trade talks, “government advisers are now highlighting the risk of sourcing critical supplies from an increasingly hostile US...and are exploring ways for the country to cut its exposure to the US,” the paper said, citing Chinese researchers. The article was titled, “Donald Trump’s trade war and Huawei ban push China to rethink economic ties with US.”

And China is considering cutting natural gas purchases from the U.S. as part of this movement, the paper said.

“The idea that China should buy large amounts of natural gas from the U.S. must be revisited,” Wang Yongzhong, a senior fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a governmental think tank, told the Hong Kong-based newspaper Monday.

The move came after President Donald Trump’s latest action to blacklist Huawei, effectively halting its ability to buy American-made parts and components. China is now threatening to stop funding an industry that the two countries have done sizable deals in. In 2017, China agreed to fund a natural gas project in Alaska worth $43 billion, the South China Morning Post said.

 

 

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