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Ser Scot A Ellison

Coronavirus (COVID-19)

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This is getting to the point that I thought it deserved its own thread.  
 

The BBC is reporting the first death outside of China:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-51345855

CNN is reporting 14,800 cases worldwide with 300 dead:

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-02-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Earlier CNN reported the PRC is seeking beds from the EU as it is running out of beds to care for those who are ill:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/01/us/coronavirus-us-massachusetts/index.html

From the article:

Quote

China asks EU for help

China has asked the European Union for help in buying medical supplies, the Chinese government said, as the country is running out of beds and supplies. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang spoke with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, according to a government statement, and is hoping to buy supplies through "commercial channels" from EU countries.
 
 
China asking for help from the EU to provide beds and medical supplies is what really got my attention.


China asking for help from the EU to provide beds and medical supplies is what really caught my attention.

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison

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Thank you!

I kept on thinking about starting this thread, but then I didn't feel like doing all the research and pulling all the links together.

 

Weird to think that less than 100 days ago, this virus didn't even exist in humans yet.

Edited by A True Kaniggit

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1 minute ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Thank you!

I kept on thinking about starting this thread, but then I didn't feel like doing all the research and pulling all the links together.

Have you read Station Eleven?

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1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Have you read Station Eleven?

Negative. Would you recommend?

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3 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Negative. Would you recommend?

Yes.  Post-Apocalyptic without going supernatural.  It speaks to the need to do more than merely survive and the importance of art in that context.
 

I enjoyed it.

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Just saw this graphic this morning.  The current outbreak appears to have a higher morbidity (infection) rate than SARS but, potentially a lower mortality rate.  Unfortunately, mortality js a trailing indicator:

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-02-20-intl-hnk/h_7c179ea62f273795ea3e7aed212689ee

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I was reading today the flu is more dangerous (though not to dismiss this). I suppose it is scary for people like me with auto-immune conditions. 

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China today reported +2,875 additional lab-confirmed cases, bringing the lab-confirmed total, in China to 17,206.   The 281 cases outside China brings the overall lab-confirmed total to 17,487

China confirmed an additional +57 deaths today, bringing China's death total to 361,  With the death in the Philippines, that brings the confirmed death total to 362.   

I expect the daily death rate to continue to accelerate.

I also doubt that the death total is complete, or that China is being completely forthright about its numbers.  For instance, I doubt that everyone who dies of pneumonia in Wuhan or elsewhere is being immediately tested and added to China's totals (even assuming that samples are being taken for testing, which I suppose they probably are).  Some days ago, it was reported that authorities in Wuhan were offering free cremation to those whose relatives died of pneumonia-like conditions.

China is scrubbing Chinese social media in order to maintain tight control of the flow of information.  

Of the  281 confirmed cases outside of China, many are in first-world nations whose health authorities are responding vigorously to track and isolate patients.   It is not in these countries that I would expect the next major outbreak outside of China.  I am a bit worried about Brazil, where not a single case has yet been confirmed.

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2 hours ago, Simon Steele said:

I was reading today the flu is more dangerous (though not to dismiss this). I suppose it is scary for people like me with auto-immune conditions. 

The good news, for people with good immune systems, is that if they get it, they probably will survive.  But the idea that it is no more dangerous than the flu is wishful thinking, and almost certainly nonsense, given the little we know. 

China, by its own actions, is taking a huge economic hit.  They would not be doing this for something no more dangerous than the flu. 

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21 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Just saw this graphic this morning.  The current outbreak appears to have a higher morbidity (infection) rate than SARS but, potentially a lower mortality rate.  Unfortunately, mortality js a trailing indicator:

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-02-20-intl-hnk/h_7c179ea62f273795ea3e7aed212689ee

Don't conflate infection (presence of a microorganism in a host) with morbidity (symptoms and signs of disease). This excudes asymptomatic cases, carriers, those who have existing immunity etc.

Since we don't know that much about Wuhan Coronavirus at the moment we cannot honestly compare it to other similar infections (e.g. flu) at this point - in terms of 'how bad is it?'. We can draw those conclusions afterwards.

Edited by Isis

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23 minutes ago, Isis said:

Don't conflate infection (presence of a microorganism in a host) with morbidity (symptoms and signs of disease). This excudes asymptomatic cases, carriers, those who have existing immunity etc.

Since we don't know that much about Wuhan Coronavirus at the moment we cannot honestly compare it to other similar infections (e.g. flu) at this point - in terms of 'how bad is it?'. We can draw those conclusions afterwards.

Fair enough.

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11 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

CNN reporting the count of infected as of tonight 16,500.  So, no exponential increase this time.  That’s good news.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/02/us/coronavirus-us-travel-restrictions/index.html

These numbers were already out of date at the time you posted them.  See the numbers I gave above.   Moreover, a plateau in lab-confirmed cases does not necessarily mean the virus is leveling off.  It could well mean that China is conserving it's limited supply of testing kits.

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Quote from our director in the NYT

My one wish is that people would learn about aseptic technique and about NOT contaminating things.

Don't sneeze into your hands.

Do wash your hands after you do anything dirty and remember that 'dirt' isn't always visible.

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10 minutes ago, Isis said:

Quote from our director in the NYT

My one wish is that people would learn about aseptic technique and about NOT contaminating things.

Don't sneeze into your hands.

Do wash your hands after you do anything dirty and remember that 'dirt' isn't always visible.

I traveled to San Diego for work last week and saw lots of people wearing masks while I was waiting in Atlanta for my flight.  I made a point to wash my hands religiously.  Are the masks everyone was wearing helpful at all?

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4 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I traveled to San Diego for work last week and saw lots of people wearing masks while I was waiting in Atlanta for my flight.  I made a point to wash my hands religiously.  Are the masks everyone was wearing helpful at all?

I think the biggest help for healthy people wearing them,  it stops you touching your face.

 

they are most useful with sick people as they help stop them spreading it, rather than stop you catching it.

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3 minutes ago, Pebble thats Stubby said:

I think the biggest help for healthy people wearing them,  it stops you touching your face.

they are most useful with sick people as they help stop them spreading it, rather than stop you catching it.

By my understanding, this is 100% correct. 

To go into a bit more detail, you contract the virus by absorbing it into your soft tissues, aka mouth, nose and eyes.  So if someone sneezes right in front of you, you'll still be likely to contract it through your eyes unless you are also wearing googles.  Likewise if someone sneezes and then touches a doorknob, which you then touch, you could easily then contract it if you touch your eyes or eat anything prior to (thoroughly) washing your hands.

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3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I traveled to San Diego for work last week and saw lots of people wearing masks while I was waiting in Atlanta for my flight.  I made a point to wash my hands religiously.  Are the masks everyone was wearing helpful at all?

As a former hospital worker we had to go through mask fit testing every 2 years to be certified that we knew how to wear a mask properly. I very much doubt the average person knows how. Judging from the photos I see with upside down and badly fitted masks I have grave doubts about the future of the human race.

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Sigh.

I don't want to say Canterbury* is the racism capital of New Zealand but some of its people seem to be doing a good job of making it appear that way all by themselves.

Quote

multiple parents at a school in Rolleston received an email telling them to keep their kids at home - because "you Asians are virus spreaders".

"Our Kiwi kids don't want to be in the same class as your disgusting virus spreaders!" the email says.

The message - which has caused upset and disgust in the community - was from Protect Rolleston.

 

 

*Rolleston is in Canterbury, Christchurch is also in Canterbury, which is where the Mosque shootings happened last year.

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56 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Sigh.

I don't want to say Canterbury* is the racism capital of New Zealand but some of its people seem to be doing a good job of making it appear that way all by themselves.

 

 

*Rolleston is in Canterbury, Christchurch is also in Canterbury, which is where the Mosque shootings happened last year.

So … what you are trying to tell is that somewhere in this world of 7 billion people, some troll (or frightened person) said something racist.

And you felt it was important to point this out so that you could make sweeping, unflattering, generalizations about entire groups of people.

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