Heresy 230 and die Herren von Winterfell

[alienarea]

23 hours ago, LynnS said:

Further to the left on the map, near the river and inlet.  Too far east on the enlarged map to see.

Here's an interactive map that shows the tower of joy on a ridge.

https://quartermaester.info/

 

22 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I think LynnS meant far west. It's near the mouth of a river emptying into the sea. You can barely make out High Hermitage to the north of it along the same river.

 

22 hours ago, LynnS said:

Yes, that's what I meant.  I included a link to an interactive map so you can move around the map.

Thank you.

That fuels up my crackpot that Elia and Aegon escaped to Essos via Sunspear. Aerys is mad and paranoid, but not stupid.

After Rhaegar's death at the Trident he knows he has lost, but House Targaryen must survive. He sends his pregnant wife to Dragonstone and Elia and Aegon to Dorne (I think Ned's line to Cersei to flee to Essos is a hint). This is a task for the White Bull.

And the order to the three KG at the ToJ. Hold up whoever comes as long as possible. And the ToJ is a strategic spot for it. If Lyanna was in Starfall with Rhaegar, the home his best friend Arthur Dayne, and still is there, and Elia and Aegon in Sunspear, then Ned has a choice after the ToJ: go to Starfall for Lyanna, or to Sunspear for Elia and Aegon. The three KG at the ToJ are buying time for Elia and Aegon to escape.

That also explains the Mountain's confession when killing Oberyn. Confessing a lie to make it a truth - in case Aegon returns, who conveniently is introduced a book later.

Then we have the tragedy that the last two Targaryen's will fight against each other believing the other one is a fake.

Bonus plot: Aerys could make an educated guess he were to be executed after the fall of KL, and maybe an imprisonment would feel worse, so he ordered Jaime to kill him. To taint him as a revenge to Tywin?

 

[LynnS]

19 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

That's my suspicion as well.  The only other possibility is Marwyn.  What makes me dubious about Marwyn is that he seems to have only learned about Dany late in the game.  If he had a glass candle and was communicating with Dany, you would think that he would have set forth to find her much earlier.  

Quaithe in fact does travel to Dany much earlier in the game.

Also proof that my memory does not improve with age.  Of course Dany's dream of waking the dragon is part of her own awakening.  The great dragon sings to her possibly giving her immunity to fire, the temporary immunity that GRRM speaks about. This may also be the source of her 'intuition' about the ritual for hatching dragon eggs.   And it may be where Melisandre was going with the business of waking the stone dragon.  

 

[LynnS]

17 hours ago, alienarea said:

And the order to the three KG at the ToJ. Hold up whoever comes as long as possible. And the ToJ is a strategic spot for it. If Lyanna was in Starfall with Rhaegar, the home 

I just don't think Elia escaped from KL.  Rhaegar went to battle thinking he was going to win but was killed.  I think it's this point where baby Aegon was replaced and hidden.  I'm guessing with Varys' help.  So potentially hidden at Starfall along with Jon, and later moved to Pentos with Lady Ashera.  

If the KG were playing for time at the toj; it seems more likely to me that they were protecting Aegon rather than Jon or Lyanna.  It's after Ned arrives at Starfall that we hear the story of Ashera's suicide off a cliff into the sea.  I think it's a fabrication and I think Ned helps her to escape with Aegon and we get the story of the fisherman's daughter.

The is may or may not have had something to do with what transpired between Ser Arthur and Ned before he died.  My tinfoil says that Arthur extracted an oath from Ned to protect Aegon in exchange for the service he did for Ned in protecting Jon. 

[LynnS]

22 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Minnesota is a large producer of turkeys and pork and nearly all the plants are closed due to internal outbreaks. My district's Congressman Colin Peterson is head of the federal Ag Committee. He stated yesterday that we are three weeks away from no pork in grocery stores, but it's already scarce at my local Walmart. The kid that loaded my vehicle yesterday said that it's pretty "picked over" and their stock is really low. Personally, I think eating less meat would actually improve the health of a lot of people, and if everybody were forced into planting their own gardens, we could theoretically see a decrease in heart diseases and cancer. 

In Canada, beef, pork and chicken producers have been compromised and that scares me somewhat.  I am not a big consumer of beef or pork although I do like the occasional ribs or ham.  I can do a lot with a chicken so that concerns me.  It's dairy that is in short supply because of the huge drop in demand.  That seems counter-intuitive but dairy suppliers have been dumping their excess; a practice that confounds me.  We're also being told to stuff our faces with French fries because there is a glut of them.  At least potato producers are not dumping them.   

[dialt]

I just said this elsewhere... but imo, Ashara Dayne and the Martells as well, are far more involved in the plot that lead to Robert's Rebellion than it looks like. And not in a good way. The point being, that things blew up in their hands or took a different directions (especially for the Martells).

And I feel... that what happened at Starfall is more similar to what happened at King's Landing between Ned and Cersei. He offered Ashara... to go into exile, instead of paying for something she had caused.

 

[dialt]

On 4/30/2020 at 5:34 PM, Melifeather said:

2) Someone is whispering instructions to Daenerys while she sleeps via the use of a glass candle.

 

Looks like some of us, agree: Quaithe. via dragonglass candles. Probably since day one.

[LynnS]

3 hours ago, lalt said:

And I feel... that what happened at Starfall is more similar to what happened at King's Landing between Ned and Cersei. He offered Ashara... to go into exile, instead of paying for something she had caused.

Yes that seems like something that Ned might have done before.  Not forgetting that Cersei also wanted to disguise Tommen and hide him with another Lord (I forget who) to get him out of harm's way.   

[alienarea]

What do you think Ashara caused?

I don't think she is in a position to cause anything significant unless she seduces Rhaegar and carries his child.

[dialt]

If she was pregnant, I’d bet on Brandon. And Brandon was about to marry Cat.

He was actually on his way to Riverrun when the news of Lyanna disappearance spread. And he dramatically changed his path, towards King’s Landing.

Bare in mind that Brandon’s reaction at Harrenal, when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna, was noticed. He went mad, more than Robert. 

So to me, it wasn’t that difficult to imagine what his reaction could have been had Lyanna disappeared.

However the first consequence of Lyanna Stark going missing,  was that Brandon didn’t marry Catlyn. Can it be that this is what Ashara wanted? 
If so, I can see her being used (by Varys, or even by the Martells themselves) to lure Lyanna in the trap. And in any case by someone who wanted that war. 

About the Martells, the point is that... Elia was married into the Royal Family so that her son (and half Martell) would have become king one day. But having had only two children and not chance of having more, her position and the chances of reaching that goal, became fragile. Very fragile. To secure the ascension not having to deal with Aerys any longer was...  key. They didn’t want the overthrow of the entire dynasty of course. No dynasty no half Targaryen/half Martell King. But... without Aerys and a Rhaegar on the throne the scenario would have been better. And if Rhaegar had to die... they would have had control of the King. Sure there was Viserys, but Aegon in any case had a better claim and given the context... chances to win. 

Instead of a peaceful agreement between Rhaegar and Elia, about him having another child from someone else, that I consider impossible just because theirs was a political match not a romantic or friendly affair, I see far more plausible the Martells trying to get rid of him, before it was too late.

[alienarea]

On 5/2/2020 at 6:54 PM, lalt said:

If she was pregnant, I’d bet on Brandon. And Brandon was about to marry Cat.

He was actually on his way to Riverrun when the news of Lyanna disappearance spread. And he dramatically changed his path, towards King’s Landing.

Bare in mind that Brandon’s reaction at Harrenal, when Rhaegar crowned Lyanna, was noticed. He went mad, more than Robert. 

So to me, it wasn’t that difficult to imagine what his reaction could have been had Lyanna disappeared.

However the first consequence of Lyanna Stark going missing,  was that Brandon didn’t marry Catlyn. Can it be that this is what Ashara wanted? 
If so, I can see her being used (by Varys, or even by the Martells themselves) to lure Lyanna in the trap. And in any case by someone who wanted that war. 

About the Martells, the point is that... Elia was married into the Royal Family so that her son (and half Martell) would have become king one day. But having had only two children and not chance of having more, her position and the chances of reaching that goal, became fragile. Very fragile. To secure the ascension not having to deal with Aerys any longer was...  key. They didn’t want the overthrow of the entire dynasty of course. No dynasty no half Targaryen/half Martell King. But... without Aerys and a Rhaegar on the throne the scenario would have been better. And if Rhaegar had to die... they would have had control of the King. Sure there was Viserys, but Aegon in any case had a better claim and given the context... chances to win. 

Instead of a peaceful agreement between Rhaegar and Elia, about him having another child from someone else, that I consider impossible just because theirs was a political match not a romantic or friendly affair, I see far more plausible the Martells trying to get rid of him, before it was too late.

Apologies, that is too constructed for my understanding. The first part reads as if Ashara had the hots for Brandon and didn't want him to marry Catelyn, and I understan the second part as if the Martells wanted to overthrow Aerys and Rhaegar so Aegon would be king. That doesn't make sense to me, and starting a rebellion seems like the wrong way to get there. First, you would kill Aerys so Rhaegar becomes king, not Viserys, than you dispose Rhaegar.

Everyone knew Brandon was hotblooded and would act before thinking, and Lyanna was his younger sister, so it was obvious what her abduction would cause.

If Ashara wanted Brandon, claiming he seduced her would have been more efficient, wouldn't it? 

Additionally, marriages of Lords and Ladies in Westeros are arranged for power and heirs, not necessarily for love. The whole idea of Ashara wanting Brandon and causing a rebellion because of this is not really there.

[Melifeather]

10 hours ago, alienarea said:

Everyone knew Brandon was hotblooded and would act before thinking, and Lyanna was his younger sister, so it was obvious what her abduction would cause.

Bingo. This is why I support the theory that the Rebellion was master-minded by Tywin Lannister.

[dialt]

On 5/4/2020 at 7:32 AM, alienarea said:

Additionally, marriages of Lords and Ladies in Westeros are arranged for power and heirs, not necessarily for love. The whole idea of Ashara wanting Brandon and causing a rebellion because of this is not really there

In fact that was not the point I was trying to make.

I said "maybe" she was used by whoever wanted the rebellion/war to occur. Not that she wanted the rebellion/war to occur.

Same as Lysa. She didn't know or care about Littlefinger's long term plan, yet she was used by him not only to kill Jon Arryn, but to convince the Starks that the Lannisters did it. Which was Littlefinger's true goal. 

And yes, sure: marriages are arranged for power. Absolutely. In fact... it's because of that (power) that Brandon was supposed to marry Cat, not her or lady Dustin.

For the same reason, to break a political betrothal is particularly difficult: because it's equal to breaking a political alliance.

Robb did that - and beside the fact that it costed his life - was that the norm or the exception? I'd say the latter.

Plus, even if we entertain the idea that Ahsara had something (and a child) with someone else... time had passed and she wasn't about to marry anyone. Why? Because to claim that something happened is not enough in that world to arrange a marriage. 

And accoring to Barristan, Ashara was dishonored. That's it.

If we go with that... given the little we know about the events that lead to the rebellion (I mean all the events: we don't even know where Lyanna was, etc.. ) and about Ashara... it's a scenario that we should not rule out.

Is it possible that she wanted something silly like having the chance to talk with Brandon personally or maybe revenge, or whatever else in between? Why not? Who knows. That's really all I am saying.

It's not that I have a specific theory. It's just that I am willing to consider this chance too.

As I do with the Martells (regardless what I am saying about Ashara: the two things don't have to tied).

I simply don't buy the idea that they were perfectly fine with Rhaegar impregnating another woman. With him producing an heir (second/third in line or even a bastard... doesn't matter if history had taught them anything) and possibly more than one had he lived longer.

But that's me. I know that I am in a minority when it comes to this... but to me, it sound impalusible. 

@Melifeather That too. But can I ask you something? The Martells hate the Lannnisters because they killed Elia and the children. That's a good enough reason. No doubt.

However, have you ever considered the chance that the Martells and the Lannisters were plotting together since day one but the Lannisters switched side at the very last moment? 

Again, not saying that was the case. But to me is fascinating to consider this chance too.

[Melifeather]

5 hours ago, lalt said:

And accoring to Barristan, Ashara was dishonored. That's it.

Part of Ashara's story is that she jumped off the Palestone Tower after the loss of a child, so it only makes sense that the dishonor included a pregnancy.

5 hours ago, lalt said:

But can I ask you something? The Martells hate the Lannnisters because they killed Elia and the children. That's a good enough reason. No doubt.

However, have you ever considered the chance that the Martells and the Lannisters were plotting together since day one but the Lannisters switched side at the very last moment? 

Again, not saying that was the case. But to me is fascinating to consider this chance too.

Personally I do think Tywin strung Rhaegar along. How else would Rhaegar believe that Tywin would answer his father's summons?

[Tyryan Lannister]

Maybe I'm missing something, but what evidence is there that Ashara and Brandon ever met, let alone had an affair?

[Melifeather]

3 minutes ago, Tyryan Lannister said:

Maybe I'm missing something, but what evidence is there that Ashara and Brandon ever met, let alone had an affair?

Just the story that Meera told Bran about the Knight of the Laughing Tree. In that story Brandon talked to Ashara on behalf of Ned.

[Tyryan Lannister]

1 minute ago, Melifeather said:

Just the story that Meera told Bran about the Knight of the Laughing Tree. In that story Brandon talked to Ashara on behalf of Ned.

That's it, been a while for me.

[dialt]

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Part of Ashara's story is that she jumped off the Palestone Tower after the loss of a child, so it only makes sense that the dishonor included a pregnancy.

I am not saying that she wasn't pregnant.

To clarify: I am saying that she wasn't about to marry the father or anyone else snd that the idea that the war broke out and she didn't have the chance/enough time to inform the father doesn't hold. Imo, obviously... 

Between Harrenal and the disappearance of Lyanna there's not a too short time gap: Elia wasn't heavely pregnant - if pregnant at all - during the tourney and Rhaegar was still with her when Aegon was born. It has to be -at least - of more than 3 mothes. Therefore, Ashara had enough time to find out about her pregnancy and eventually tell the father (whoever he was). So to me, the father didn't want or wasn't in the position to marry her.

Which is something that doesn't surprise me, because marriages between noble houses are a political matter.

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Personally I do think Tywin strung Rhaegar along. How else would Rhaegar believe that Tywin would answer his father's summons?

I'd say that whatever Rhaegar believed, it was what Tywin wanted him to believe.  But it goes like that in any case.

To quote the Godfather "keep your friends close but your enemies closer". That's a trick someone like Tywin would probably use.

[dialt]

4 minutes ago, lalt said:

I am not saying that she wasn't pregnant.

To clarify: I am saying that she wasn't about to marry the father or anyone else and that the idea that the war broke out and she didn't have the chance/enough time to inform the father doesn't hold. Imo, obviously... 

Between Harrenal and the disappearance of Lyanna there's not a too short time gap: Elia wasn't heavely pregnant - if pregnant at all - during the tourney and Rhaegar was still with her when Aegon was born. It has to be -at least - of more than 3 mothes. Therefore, Ashara had enough time to find out about her pregnancy and eventually tell the father (whoever he was). So to me, the father didn't want or wasn't in the position to marry her.

Which is something that doesn't surprise me, because marriages between noble houses are a political matter.

I'd say that whatever Rhaegar believed, it was what Tywin wanted him to believe. 

But it goes like that in any case, whatever Tywin's plan was (so not necessarly with Rhaegar)

To quote the Godfather "keep your friends close but your enemies closer". That's a trick someone like Tywin would probably use.

 

[Lady Dyanna]

On 5/4/2020 at 12:32 PM, Melifeather said:

Bingo. This is why I support the theory that the Rebellion was master-minded by Tywin Lannister.

I agree with you on this one I think. If not masterminding he seems to at least potentially have been involved. The amount of hatred that Ned displays towards the Lannisters has always seemed disproportionately higher in opposition to that which he holds for the Targaryens. I mean the Targs killed both his father and brother in extraordinarily cruel ways. On a personal level you would think that might matter more to him than betrayal of the king who did it. Not to mention that we have a great parallel in Cat taking Tyrion. 

[Melifeather]

14 hours ago, lalt said:

Between Harrenal and the disappearance of Lyanna there's not a too short time gap: Elia wasn't heavely pregnant - if pregnant at all - during the tourney and Rhaegar was still with her when Aegon was born. It has to be -at least - of more than 3 mothes. Therefore, Ashara had enough time to find out about her pregnancy and eventually tell the father (whoever he was). So to me, the father didn't want or wasn't in the position to marry her.

I think Robb Stark repeated his father's "story", except in a more dishonorable way that cost him his life and lost his own rebellion. Breaking down Robb's story he:

1) promised himself in marriage to the Freys in order to cross at the Twins and gain Frey soldiers

2) slept with (dishonored) Jeyne Westerling while he was recovering from injuries, and then married her

3) his Frey/Bolton/Manderly allies turned against him and killed him

4) ultimately, Robb's rebellion was put down

Now lets look at Ned's story:

1) slept with Ashara (dishonored) at the Harrenhal tourney

2) promised himself in marriage to the Tullys in order to save Robert and married Catelyn

3) Ashara gave birth to a bastard

4) Robert's Rebellion was successful

Ned and Robb had similar paths in life. Ned chose to honor his political marriage at the expense of love while Robb dishonored his political match and married for love.