The Fellowship of the Prince that was Promised

[corbon]

1 minute ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I completely agree with your comments RE: Ned and Wylla.  Let me explain why it is less so.  Not only do we have these comments made to Arya, we also have:

And we also have:

And:

And:

So, while you are correct we have no direct evidence, we have an abundance of speculation from Barristan, Catelyn, Cersei, Meera Reed, in addition to the gossip previously mentioned.  Together, it certainly makes the case for a mutual affection.  

 

See post #9 where I covered this in some detail for @TheBlackDragonWillReturn
GRRM sets up the case, yes, although it is called into question by Ned's complete lack of thoughts or memories involving Ashara. But in ADwD GRRM destroys the case and we look back and see how weak it really was, and how well he manipulated us.

[Lady Rhodes]

@corbon I had just written a fairly long post and accidently deleted it I saw that long post after I initially replied. 

In short, I don't think that Barristan's comments in Dance actually dismiss the notion of mutual affection between them.  But truthfully, it does not matter for this theory to work. We have enough to know that Ned was interested and enough people witnessed that at least Ned was interested. Marriages at this time were not arranged due to love, but politics, and there would have been enough political capital involved on Rickard's part to have made it a match worth making.  The only thing that could have stopped it was Ashara's family not agreeing.  The only reason that I can think of that Ashara requested it to be halted (possible, but unlikely), Arthur supported it (plausible, but still may not be enough to prevent a betrothal) OR the Crown Prince himself requested it.  Now, rightfully so, you may be thinking that there are a ton of potential marriage alliances in Westeros and no one is going to suggest an alliance simply because their son thought there daughter was pretty at a tourney one time...  

and you are correct! But GRRM specifically weaves this story of multiple people noticing them, enough to cause speculation on the maternity and paternity of Jon and the stillborn daughter. And he specifically has a character mention that there was no pledge of marriage after the tournament. I think that means that it should be interesting enough to be worth noting.

Regarding the timeline, I don't think Ashara nor Lyanna were pregnant at the tourney.  I think Ashara was aware of the overall plan, but that it had not yet come to fruition.  So, I don't think that it negates the timeline.  I have gotten into this with people in the past, and I will try to find my old timeline, but I think the Tourney of Harrenhal is further away from Lyanna's disappearance than we are led to believe. I can go into more detail with this if you would like.

Regarding Elia - I do not think that she was 2-3 months away from giving birth to Aegon at the tourney of Harrenhal.  All the evidence we have been given suggests that pregnancies were incredibly difficult on her, that this was not new to her health (Oberyn suggests that she was always frail), and that she had sustained bedrests or bedridden recoveries with both. No maester would send a highborn noblewoman, ESPECIALLY the Crown Prince's WIFE, to a tourney with that kind of medical history. Hence why I am inclined to think that she wasn't aware she was pregnant yet or was very, very early in her pregnancy.

Dragonstone - I will readily admit this needs to be fleshed out more. Here are my key beliefs: I am a firm believer in lemongate. I think Dany was raised in Dorne and that when Oberyn and Willem Darry signed the pact in Braavos, that is when Viserys and Dany were ushered across the Narrow Sea.  I know that I said before that I didn't think Oberyn and Doran were in the FEllowship. I don't.  But I do think they knew about hidden Targaryen's being in Dorne. Viserys is not a reliable character and would have been a young boy that had been kept sheltered by his paranoid father.  I don't think it is a stretch to suggest that he would notice the difference between two babies, or that he would know if he was in Dorne or elsewhere.  I suspect that Daenerys' Stormborn moniker derives from the "Storm" of swords that occurred during the fight at the Tower of Joy.  Which yes, would had to have been a crowded place. 

 

[Lady Rhodes]

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

As I've raised in the R+L+J discussion, I think there is reason to believe Rhaegar consulted the Ghost of High Heart, and I keep putting out the idea that Marwyn might have also been a part of this. 

The latter because of not only his expertise in the study of magic and prophecy, but also I've long believed that Rhaegar would want a maester he could trust to be with Lyanna during her childbirth. If you want my candidates for members of Rhaegar's innermost circle in which prophecy was discussed, then I would propose Ashara and Marwyn as the only two survivors.

As a side note on this, I find it exceedingly interesting that Marwyn is absent from Westeros in what looks like the immediate aftermath of Robert's Rebellion. His study abroad, including a trip to Asshai seems a great way to get out of Dodge.

Very interested in this. Do you have more?  I particularly like the point on Marwyn.

[Lady Rhodes]

@corbon  I went digging and found an old post of mine from December 2018. Copied below:

Quote

 

Brandon was on his way to Riverrun to wed Catelyn when he heard of Lyanna's disappearance.  If the Tourney was when most people believe (late 281), it lasted a fortnight (about 2 weeks), and we know that Lyanna was taken the following year (282), we can ascertain that there is at least some form of a gap.

Rickard was marching south to Riverrun for Brandon and Catelyn's wedding.  After Brandon was jailed in King's Landing, he then redirected course with his group to head to King's Landing to free Brandon after Aerys summoned him. Multiple questions- Why did Rickard not head to King's Landing himself when he heard about Lyanna's disappearance?  Why did Ned not leave the Eyrie? His brother's wedding was a big enough of an event that Rickard and 200+ Northmen are coming down, why isn't Ned attending? Furthermore, why didn't Ned go after Lyanna himself, with Robert?

I am thinking that Barbrey Dustin's remark about Rickard's Southron Ambitions (which I know has been discussed ad nauseum on other threads and forums) bears more fruit.  The only things we really hear about the tourney of Harrenhal are Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna, The Knight of the Laughing Tree, Jaime's appointment to the Kingsguard, and a bit about Ashara dancing with some people.  We also know that Aerys attended because he thought that Rhaegar was plotting to depose of him.  We also know that Howland Reed (through Meera Reed) that Howland was on the isle of faces for sometime prior to the tourney of Harrenhal and met with the green men.

In short - I am wondering if more "great council" talk occurred, even if we were not privy to it. I wonder if Rickard thought, rightly, that Brandon is too rash when he reacts, rather than thinking things through and did not confide in him certain parts of the plan.  I think Lyanna was doing some things in the Riverlands on the behest of Rickard during the gap, which is why she was by Harrenhal. 
Other thoughts, if Rhaegar was very into the PtwP prophecy, could it not be a possibility that Rhaegar and Rickard discussed this? Perhaps Benjen went to the Wall to be "eyes and ears" of happenings going on up there.  Perhaps Rickard and Jon Arryn had discussing breaking Lyanna's betrothal to Robert to wed her to Rhaegar to complete the prophecy but plans had not been set in stone.  Jon, perhaps, did not share the information to Robert and Ned as to what was happening until all hell broke loose when Brandon found out and caused a ruckus in King's Landing.

These are just some errant thoughts on the topic, but given the little information we have above, I think it is something worth considering - that Lyanna was doing Rickard's bidding in the Riverlands after the tourney of Harrenhal and before her disappearance.

 

Okay, present day me again.  That thread became more fleshed out (as these things often do!) and I think it is likely that Rhaegar playing a song that made the wolf maid cry and then a black brother imploring people to join the Night's Watch, along with Lady Whent having a soft spot for the Watch, add up to more than a Grand Council to depose of Aerys. Perhaps this song was what brought Lyanna into the Fellowship.  (I was calling it an inner circle then, but I just finished watching LOTR again and feel the fellowship term is more correct.)  I cannot take credit for all of that, as other posters helped flesh out the theory. 

Now, what was Lyanna doing in the Riverlands? This I have changed since my original post. I don't think she was doing something on the behest of Rickard, but now, I believe that she was doing something for the Fellowship.  Why would she be alone in the Riverlands - going to the Isle of Faces perhaps? I wonder if you have to have blood of the First Men to visit, though that would have allowed Ashara and Arthur to have visited as well.  Could Howland Reed have given her some secret knowledge? Possible. But this is not fully developed, this is just me spouting some possibilities that I can think of off of the top of my head. 

I will work on a more fleshed out timeline for you.

[corbon]

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

@corbon I had just written a fairly long post and accidently deleted it I saw that long post after I initially replied. 

Yeah, I hate it when that happens!

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

In short, I don't think that Barristan's comments in Dance actually dismiss the notion of mutual affection between them.  But truthfully, it does not matter for this theory to work. We have enough to know that Ned was interested and enough people witnessed that at least Ned was interested.

No, These were not witnesses. 
Cat wasn't there. Cersei wasn't there. Allyria almost certainly wasn't there. Harwin doubts it (I'm not sure if he was there or not either). 
Barristan is pretty much a witness but he doesn't indicate N+A, only that she looked to Stark (not which one or what for) and his evidence is pretty strong in two different ways that it wasn't N+A, even if you don't think it dismisses the possibility.

That leaves... nothing but Meera's story.

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

and you are correct! But GRRM specifically weaves this story of multiple people noticing them,

No, these were not people "noticing". None of them were present, all of them are 'distant' from the people and events in question events and are themselves speculating with the knowledge of these relevant facts:
 - Ned visited Ashara after the war in Starfall
 - Ned came back from the South with a bastard
 - Ashara supposedly killed herself around the time Ned left Starfall.
in other words, they weren't around and didn't witness and don't know, but 'facts' separately available to them provide a logical and reasonable reason for speculation of N+A.

No one who was there speculates in this direction. Not Jaime, not Barristan. Only Meera's story, which can be read multiple ways and doesn't actually say there was anything between Ned and Ashara more than a single dance instigated by Brandon, is from what might be called a 'witness' (Howland Reed we assume).

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

enough to cause speculation on the maternity and paternity of Jon and the stillborn daughter. And he specifically has a character mention that there was no pledge of marriage after the tournament. I think that means that it should be interesting enough to be worth noting.

Yes, its a well laid red herring by GRRM. It has to be interesting.
And you'll note, once again, that Harwin dismisses it. His quote is written such that we can easily read it and think he supports the idea, that it wouldn't be such a bad thing, that no pledges were given, but what he actually said is that he doesn't think its true.

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Regarding the timeline, I don't think Ashara nor Lyanna were pregnant at the tourney. 

Ahh, thats makes more sense, sorry, I misunderstood.

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think Ashara was aware of the overall plan, but that it had not yet come to fruition.  So, I don't think that it negates the timeline.  I have gotten into this with people in the past, and I will try to find my old timeline, but I think the Tourney of Harrenhal happens a lot closer to Lyanna's disappearance than we are led to believe. I can go into more detail with this if you would like.

Its never a bad thing entirely, but I've seen a lot of timeline discussion before, including the the Heresy threads, and I'm not much impressed by most of it. @SFDanny and a few others have done much better work IMO. Thats not to say we shouldn't, I'm just doubtful of the productive value. I feel that these are more or less settled in different camps and have been rehashed enough to have little value to redoing it.
Having said that, there is always the possibility of something new, or an angle not seen (by me) before, so if you want to, feel free. I'll be listening and trying to be open.

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Regarding Elia - I do not think that she was 2-3 months away from giving birth to Aegon at the tourney of Harrenhal.  All the evidence we have been given suggests that pregnancies were incredibly difficult on her, that this was not new to her health (Oberyn suggests that she was always frail), and that she had sustained bedrests or bedridden recoveries with both. No maester would send a highborn noblewoman, ESPECIALLY the Crown Prince's WIFE, to a tourney with that kind of medical history. Hence why I am inclined to think that she wasn't aware she was pregnant yet or was very, very early in her pregnancy.

I tend to agree, fr the same reasons within timeline limitations.

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Dragonstone - I will readily admit this needs to be fleshed out more. Here are my key beliefs: I am a firm believer in lemongate.

And I, in full honesty, am a firm believer that its quite silly and unnecessary. Hence many of the areas we disagree. Thats another area well hashed out many time and unlikely, though not impossible, to find new ways for either of us to move on.

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think Dany was raised in Dorne and that when Oberyn and Willem Darry signed the pact in Braavos, that is when Viserys and Dany were ushered across the Narrow Sea. 

Ok, for what it is. I don;t agree but I can live with that for now.

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I know that I said before that I didn't think Oberyn and Doran were in the FEllowship. I don't.  But I do think they knew about hidden Targaryen's being in Dorne.

Its possible, sure,

Though their thoughts and words and actions don;t really agree with such an idea, even if they do not rule it out.

5 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Viserys is not a reliable character and would have been a young boy that had been kept sheltered by his paranoid father.  I don't think it is a stretch to suggest that he would notice the difference between two babies, or that he would know if he was in Dorne or elsewhere.  I suspect that Daenerys' Stormborn moniker derives from the "Storm" of swords that occurred during the fight at the Tower of Joy.  Which yes, would had to have been a crowded place. 

Yeah, well, thats all fine, but its all a case of "this is not impossible" (well, I don;t necessarily agree, but) rather than 'evidence points to this'.

 

For all my words above about about timeline discussions unlikely to be fruitful, heres where I'm at so far:
 - N+A doesn't fit the data, but thats a side issue. If there is no N+A then there's less problem for your theory.
 - Why does Rhaegar need more women at all before Aegon is born?
 - Why does he need a different woman for each head?
 - If Dragons and Princes are interchangeable, where do bastards fit? Why is Rhaegar making multiple bastard heads?

 - Stannis IMO proves Rhaella's two kids fled from Dragonstone with Willem Darry. Which doesn't rule Rhaella (and Viserys) out from having been at the ToJ, ok. But I think it makes it very very very dubious a proposition that Dany wasn't born at Dragonstone.
 - Why would they substitute Ashara's Daughter as Rhaell's? Why not just cleave her as Rhaegar's? 

Most damning, it seems like there isn't any actual evidence for any of this, its mostly created by claimed certain existing evidence is false then positing a possible alternate.
I'm all for examining evidence and dismissing it as false where appropriate. But IMO you need some actual counter evidence, and a good explanation as to how/why it is false*.
 

*The N+A is a great example of this. I claim that Cat's, Cersei's and Allyria's evidence is false, but then I can walk through exactly why both their provenance for the truth is poor (they aren't actually witnesses) and also why they might believe, or at least speculate, the false things they say.  
 

[corbon]

21 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

@corbon  I went digging and found an old post of mine from December 2018. Copied below:

 

 

Okay, present day me again.  That thread became more fleshed out (as these things often do!) and I think it is likely that Rhaegar playing a song that made the wolf maid cry and then a black brother imploring people to join the Night's Watch, along with Lady Whent having a soft spot for the Watch, add up to more than a Grand Council to depose of Aerys.

heh, I don't think these things 'add up' to anything at all. They are just the observings of a single minor observer at a great tourney with 1000s of things happening to thousands of people. They are included by GRRM because each has individual relevance to his 'latter' story, but they are not a collective focuse on a single plot line.
But thats by the by, just my own observation.

21 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Perhaps this song was what brought Lyanna into the Fellowship.  (I was calling it an inner circle then, but I just finished watching LOTR again and feel the fellowship term is more correct.)  I cannot take credit for all of that, as other posters helped flesh out the theory. 

Its possible.

21 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Now, what was Lyanna doing in the Riverlands?

There are any number of reasons she might be there, but several are hinted at elsewhere.
For one, we know that she was a bit wild up in Winterfell, and with her mother dead had no proper female companionship to learn how to be a lady from. Sending her south provides that opportunity, and there's her future inlaws the Tully, or even better, the Watch-friendly/family-of-family (Tully/Whent link) Whents who have a politicall active and suitable mother figure as well as an elder sister figure.

For another, its simply a long long way to go back North and then come back down again within a few months for Brandon's wedding.

For another (kinda similar to the first), she's planned to be First Lady of the Stormlands. She needs to get to know Southron ways at least a little.

21 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This I have changed since my original post. I don't think she was doing something on the behest of Rickard, but now, I believe that she was doing something for the Fellowship.  Why would she be alone in the Riverlands - going to the Isle of Faces perhaps?

She's a 14 year old girl - and one with wild blood at that. Why the heck would Rickard be using her (independently) for deep and complex games? That makes no sense at all.

21 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I wonder if you have to have blood of the First Men to visit, though that would have allowed Ashara and Arthur to have visited as well.  Could Howland Reed have given her some secret knowledge? Possible. But this is not fully developed, this is just me spouting some possibilities that I can think of off of the top of my head. 

I will work on a more fleshed out timeline for you.

Cool.

Sorry again I misunderstood your initial timeline implications. I guess doing it as a timeline helps with that sort of misunderstanding - even if we get trapped into arguing the details. 

[Mithras]

The most glaring problem about this theory is that it is too much of a story that is integral to ASOIAF's resolution. Either GRRM will need to write a Robert's Rebellion prequel or he will need to reveal too much exposition in the main series despite there is a very significant space problem in the overly complex story at hand right now. Both options are unacceptable. ASOIAF should be able to stand on its own without relying on side materials.

[Lady Rhodes]

@corbon Love a good discussion.  To address some of your points and ask some questions to you:

1. I don't think you and I are as far off on Ned and Ashara as it seems.  For all the reasons that you pointed out, I firmly believe Ashara is not Jon's mother.  However, I think you are dismissing collective gossip as meaningless simply because its gossip.  As you mentioned, Catelyn was not there, Cersei was not there.  These are two people who I highly doubt were exchanging letters like pen pals, and while both highborn, I doubt that they traveled in similar circles (i.e. for the most part, they are not attending the same events as one another or having the same handmaidens, etc.) So how did both of them come to the same conclusion that Jon must be Ashara's?  I agree with you that Brandon is most likely the culprit for the dishonored by Stark thoughts that appear in Barristan's chapter, but that is dubious as well.  That is one man's speculation, from a jilted suitor's perspective at that.  Hardly unbiased. 

2. RE: Lemongate.  You are right; people have formed their opinions on this and it is very hard to change opinions once formed.  However, how do you reconcile your position with GRRM own words that there is more to the Red Door and lemons that don't grow in Braavos than meets the eye?  I believe that is in a so spaketh Martin section elsewhere.

3. Rhaegar needs more women before Aegon was born because of expediency - (this may have been lost in the original post that I accidently deleted, I thought I had answered this already)  Whatever he read that made him believe that he or his children were the Prince that was Promised had to have made clear that this was an situation that required urgency.  Given the Other threat that we are aware of, clearly he wasn't far off.  He doesn't need multiple women, again, it is expediency.  And bastards versus royals - I am not ruling out that Rhaegar practiced polygamy. 

4. I am sure someone fled to Dragonstone, but I think it may have been a ploy or a decoy.  I could concede that it is possible that instead of fleeing to Braavos after leaving Dragonstone, they may have fled to Dorne from there.  I still think Viserys is unreliable and young enough in this theory to be presented with a baby and it be called his sister without him questioning it too much.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

10 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Regarding Elia - I do not think that she was 2-3 months away from giving birth to Aegon at the tourney of Harrenhal.  All the evidence we have been given suggests that pregnancies were incredibly difficult on her, that this was not new to her health (Oberyn suggests that she was always frail), and that she had sustained bedrests or bedridden recoveries with both. No maester would send a highborn noblewoman, ESPECIALLY the Crown Prince's WIFE, to a tourney with that kind of medical history. Hence why I am inclined to think that she wasn't aware she was pregnant yet or was very, very early in her pregnancy.

Except that she did give birth at the end of 281 or very very early 282, which means she was at the very least at the very end of her 2nd, entering or into her 3rd trimester. 

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of t he year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.

As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however, nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. (TWoIaF)

And as far as Elia goes, yes, it was hammered away to us that she was frail. But she did not have any problems getting pregnant and she still got pregnant very easily, even after she was left bedridden by the birth of Rhaenys. It was Aegon's birth that messed her up. 

A bride for our bright prince. Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar's wedding all too well. Elia was never worthy of him. She was frail and sickly from the first, and childbirth only left her weaker. After the birth of Princess Rhaenys, her mother had been bedridden for half a year, and Prince Aegon's birth had almost been the death of her. She would bear no more children, the maesters told Prince Rhaegar afterward. (The Griffin Reborn, ADwD 61)

The vision of the HotU comes after Rhaegar is told Elia can't have anymore children.  

[Lady Rhodes]

30 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

even after she was left bedridden by the birth of Rhaenys. It was Aegon's birth that messed her up. 

Emphatically, I disagree. Bedridden most certainly means that she was messed up. Aegon's birth was worse, but that does not mean that Rhaenys was much better.

A few notes on Harrenhal:

It was announced in the year 280 AC, after Oswell Whent visited his brother, the Lord of Harrenhal.  The pretext given for the tourney is to celebrate Whent’s maiden daughter’s nameday. The Tourney of Harrenhal occurred during the Year of the False Spring, but, crucially, it only lasted two months.  [To be fair, this information is only gleaned from the Worldbook, which is not to be taken as unbiased history.  That being said, as with all history, while much is up to debate and this is certainly tailored to fit a narrative that would appease the Baratheon’s and Lannister’s, some facts simply cannot be disputed. Everyone would know when winter started again. Thus, I think we can take at face value that the false spring lasted ~2 months, give or take a fortnight.]

Why do I think there is a longer gap between the Tourney of Harrenhal and Lyanna’s disappearance? First, the gap accounts for Elia’s pregnancy, which I have expounded on previously. I find it hard to believe that, given that medical history, maester’s would have allowed her to travel. Given that Rhaenys was born at the end of 280 AC (Oct-Nov) and the tourney was announced in late 280 AC, I think it is likely that the tourney was planned to occur after her six-month bedridden state. This would make sense if, as is widely assumed, Rhaegar was bankrolling the whole event as an informal grand council. [To be clear, I am proposing that this tournament had multiple schemes. One was the issue of Aerys, the other the issue of the Prince that was Promised.]  Thus, the tourney would take place in April-May 281 AC, Elia being very early in her pregnancy or not even pregnant yet, to deliver Aegon in December 281 AC – January 282 AC (it is said that Aegon was born “near” the new year, so we have some flexibility as to which direction “near” actually is.)

Second, the tourney occurred during the narrow approximate two months of the false spring. But then winter returned. Everyone traveling would not be traveling on summer roads. Brandon was at Riverrun when the wedding date to Catelyn was announced, he dueled Littlefinger, and then headed North to join his father’s wedding party of ~200 men. This is said to have occurred in 282 AC. Brandon most certainly could travel quickly, but 200 northmen in the middle of winter would not travel well.  In addition, Robert, Ned, and Jon were visiting from the Eyrie.  Everything we have heard about the Eyrie and the Mountains of the Moon indicates that travel during winter months would be hazardous. If Harrenhal and Catelyn-Brandon wedding were to occur close together, why would Ned not have traveled to his brother’s wedding? Why would he have returned to the Vale? If not for Brandon, but to see his father Rickard, who was not at Harrenhal. The only reason that seems plausible to me is that the events are much further apart than they lead us to appear and that Ned had no reason to be in the riverlands for 9+ months.

A more complete timeline is forthcoming   I had not planned on it, but my theory has brought up some discussion about the timeline, so I am going to provide what I believe is an accurate timeline to better facilitate our discussion! It, too, is open for critique.

 

 

[St Daga]

Hi   Since you tagged me, I will come play over here, even though we have discussed some of this before.

22 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

As a general premise: I think that there was a fellowship created to help bring forth the prince that was promised prophecy. It is clear that there were some interesting, suspicious, possibly nefarious things going on around the time of the Tourney of Harrenhal, Lyanna's disappearance, and in the Red Mountains of Dorne.  There are still many unanswered questions that we all have towards these events and people involved in them, even by tangent, that I think a fully fleshed out theory could clear up. As a homage to Tolkien, I am guessing that this fellowship has nine members.  

The Fellowship: Rhaegar Targaryen, Elia Martell, Lyanna Stark, Arthur Dayne, Ashara Dayne, Oswell Whent.  

The following three I am unsure of, but I am guessing Queen Rhaella, Willem Darry, and Llweyn Martell.

To contrast Tolkien, where most of his Fellowship lived (RIP Boromir), most of this fellowship died.  I am thinking that there may be a direct inversion and one of this fellowship lived. 

It's hard to deny that GRRM is a fan of LotR,  or that he certainly is capable of homages, although I am not sure he would reuse the Fellowship, or if he did, it would have the same amount of numbers. We already discussed that most of Tolkien's Fellowship lived, except Boromir, and then Gandolf who is thought to die but comes back as a super charged version of himself in white. If we want to look at an inversion, then does that include someone in your Fellowship linked to black? 

 

22 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

We know that Elia was very frail after the birth of Rhaenys and was told after the birth of Aegon that she could not have any more children. Thus, I think the fellowship was created to bring about the 3rd head of the dragon.  

Only, when the fellowship was created, Elia did not yet know she was pregnant with Aegon.  The Tourney of Harrenhal was arranged by Oswell Whent and is widely considered to be a chance for Rhaegar to form a great council.

I can see this has already been discussed in this thread, but I think that Elia had to not only have known she was pregnant at Harrenhal, but would have been in the later states of her pregnancy. Which does make Rhaegar's crowing of another woman seem even more callous. Still, this doesn't mean that Rhaegar might not have used Harrenhal to scout some prospective females since there was no guarantee that Elia would survive her second pregnancy. But when she does, I don't see any reason that he and Elia would not want to create the third head themselves. Especially if Elia was as invested as Rheagar, which your theory hints at. Of course, as we have discussed, I think Elia did have a third pregnancy and gave birth to a living child, even though this resulted in Elia's death. I think that child was Dany. 

However, at this point, I don't see why Rhaegar thinks making two or three children is in his best benefit. After all, if he has two or three more living children, how does he decide which is his third head? Now he has four or five heads. It makes more sense to me that he would want to have his three heads come from the same father/mother dynamic, he and Elia.

 

22 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think Ashara was already involved in the fellowship and she could not risk bringing more attention to the Starks, because Lyanna was also recruited.  I think Rhaegar impregnated both Ashara and Lyanna, not knowing the Elia was already pregnant with Aegon.  This is not a terrible idea, even if he did know about Aegon, because stillbirth and dying in childbirth are not uncommon occurences in the time period that this story is set. 

As I mentioned above, what if all these children survive? Then how does Rhaegar distinguish what child is his third head? It seems like he could have been hoping for a girl, hinted at the names he chose for his children, Rhaenys, then Aegon, then Visenya makes sense, since this is the inverse birth order of Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters. What if all those children turn out to be boys, what does Rhaegar do? Maybe the sex of the child would not matter to Rhaegar?

Also, what would Ashara and Lyanna have been thinking that made them accept they should both be impregnated by a married man, a man whose wife was currently pregnant, and then both shack up together? Granted, GRRM did seem to love the 60's, but this is a leap for me to think that either Ashara or Lyanna would buy this concept. We don't know much about Ashara, but we know a little more about Lyanna, and if she was judging Robert for his lovers and bastards, why would she get herself tangled up with Rhaegar, who would be doing the same thing? Now, perhaps if Lyanna was unwilling to be a part of this plan, then Rhaegar would have seen a kidnapping and rape as his only option, but it's always felt odd to think of Rhaegar as a rapist, no matter how strongly Robert feels about it. 

 

Perhaps your Fellowship concept works as something Rhaegar set up, but I don't know if it was to create his third head. I think he and Elia had that handled, but he might have set up something to make sure that all three of his heads (his three children) were safe long after his death. Tolkein's Fellowship was also set up around the goal of taking a cursed item on a journey to be destroyed, which seems like an important concept that GRRM might like to maintain, if he was going to do a Fellowship homage, so perhaps a Fellowship charged with keeping these children safe as well as trying to reunite them at the correct time is something to consider.

 

[corbon]

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

@corbon Love a good discussion.  To address some of your points and ask some questions to you:

1. I don't think you and I are as far off on Ned and Ashara as it seems.  For all the reasons that you pointed out, I firmly believe Ashara is not Jon's mother.  However, I think you are dismissing collective gossip as meaningless simply because its gossip.  As you mentioned, Catelyn was not there, Cersei was not there.  These are two people who I highly doubt were exchanging letters like pen pals, and while both highborn, I doubt that they traveled in similar circles (i.e. for the most part, they are not attending the same events as one another or having the same handmaidens, etc.) So how did both of them come to the same conclusion that Jon must be Ashara's?  I agree with you that Brandon is most likely the culprit for the dishonored by Stark thoughts that appear in Barristan's chapter, but that is dubious as well.  That is one man's speculation, from a jilted suitor's perspective at that.  Hardly unbiased. 

Like I said, I used to be  fairly accepting of a N+A romance at Harrenhal, even if not N+A=J. Until the data from ADwD expanded the picture.
I'm not dismissing gossip as meaningless because its gossip - gossip tends to have some foundation, even if its often warped from the truth. Where there's smoke there's fire (or a smoke generator! ... or maybe its steam ... or a low cloud, or... but there's something, nearly always (even if only a motivation of pure hate)) sort of thing.
I'm dismissing the gossip because I know that these particular gossipers don't actually know anything, don't have good provenance for their ideas, weren't present and don't have first hand information from 'participants'. Plus I can see a clear and independent (but incorrect) logic trail that leads to their gossip, plus the gossip doesn't actually fit with the data we have from those who were actually around and involved (Ned, Barristan).

I showed how they come to that conclusion - the three points that are irrelevant to Harrenhal, but that appear widely known after the war.
 - Ned visited Ashara (well, visited Starfall to return Dawn) after the war in Starfall
 - Ned came back from the South with a bastard
 - Ashara supposedly killed herself around the time Ned left Starfall.

These three data points are more than enough for widely disassociated people to independently come to the conclusion that perhaps Ned's bastard Jon was borne by Ashara - especially when there is virtually no other information out there.

Also worth noting - neither Catelyn or Cersei reference Harrenhal or an old/resurrected love affair, they both refer to Jon's birth, a much later (much more than 9 months later) event. 

I don't think its at all fair or reasonable to dismiss Barristan's thoughts.
First, he was never jilted, has no bitterness against anyone (no one did him wrong or blocked his choices) is merely sad at how it all panned out. He never gave her any indication of his suit.
Second, what makes you think its speculation? He was there, around her, paying attention. That particular part, about her dishonour and looking to Stark clearly reads more as a memory and he was there at Harrenhal. Later, when thinking about her death, thats clearly speculation, both the way it reads and because he wasn't around her anymore by then.
Third, there's no reason for bias for him. None. At all. He's in his own head, he's thinking about the past, which can't be changed, he's got no complaint about anybody involved. He demonstrates ill feelings towards any involved.

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

2. RE: Lemongate.  You are right; people have formed their opinions on this and it is very hard to change opinions once formed.  However, how do you reconcile your position with GRRM own words that there is more to the Red Door and lemons that don't grow in Braavos than meets the eye?  I believe that is in a so spaketh Martin section elsewhere.

I would be interested if you can find that, to see exactly what he said. In all the discussions I've seen on it I've never heard of such an SSM.
Using the custom SSM search engine for Red Door gives nothing. Likewise with lemon. Perhaps I'm bad at using it.

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

3. Rhaegar needs more women before Aegon was born because of expediency - (this may have been lost in the original post that I accidently deleted, I thought I had answered this already)  Whatever he read that made him believe that he or his children were the Prince that was Promised had to have made clear that this was an situation that required urgency.  Given the Other threat that we are aware of, clearly he wasn't far off.  He doesn't need multiple women, again, it is expediency. 

Ahhh, sorry, that doesn't work for me. Expediency? Urgency? We are talking generational timespans here. The three heads have to grow up. I can't see any reason why things would suddenly require an immediate, defined, short timespan. Certainly there is nothing to indicate that any prophecy is ever so well defined.

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

And bastards versus royals - I am not ruling out that Rhaegar practiced polygamy. 

Ok. Thats a fairly well established idea, even if much argued (and easy for me to accept, I think the arguments against it are very badly constructed).

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

4. I am sure someone fled to Dragonstone, but I think it may have been a ploy or a decoy. 

Umm, so now we have a fake Rhaella and kid (maybe the real Viserys?, or he came later and the various extra travels with his mother or even more, with a fake mother, slipped his mind when telling tales to Dany? - ahhhhh, no.) at Dragonstone? Who escaped with Willem Darry just before Stannis got there?
To be honest, its getting stretchier and stretchier, and still no evidence provided for the stretchy bits other than "I like this idea and I want to keep it" (actually, so do I - well, parts of it -  its interesting, or I wouldn't be discussing it).

7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I could concede that it is possible that instead of fleeing to Braavos after leaving Dragonstone, they may have fled to Dorne from there.  I still think Viserys is unreliable and young enough in this theory to be presented with a baby and it be called his sister without him questioning it too much.

But haven't explained why thats necessary. Why do the conspirators even need a fake Dany? It would be significantly easier just to do a second Aegon, or keep the Aegon and the Dany together even.

[corbon]

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

A few notes on Harrenhal:

It was announced in the year 280 AC, after Oswell Whent visited his brother, the Lord of Harrenhal.  The pretext given for the tourney is to celebrate Whent’s maiden daughter’s nameday. The Tourney of Harrenhal occurred during the Year of the False Spring, but, crucially, it only lasted two months.  [To be fair, this information is only gleaned from the Worldbook, which is not to be taken as unbiased history.  That being said, as with all history, while much is up to debate and this is certainly tailored to fit a narrative that would appease the Baratheon’s and Lannister’s, some facts simply cannot be disputed. Everyone would know when winter started again. Thus, I think we can take at face value that the false spring lasted ~2 months, give or take a fortnight.]

Err, I know I'm rather foolishly pointing out the obvious, but this is relevant - the relevance will come lower down.

The Year of the False Spring still had 12 months. The False Spring itself was only 2 months long.

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Why do I think there is a longer gap between the Tourney of Harrenhal and Lyanna’s disappearance? First, the gap accounts for Elia’s pregnancy, which I have expounded on previously. I find it hard to believe that, given that medical history, maester’s would have allowed her to travel. Given that Rhaenys was born at the end of 280 AC (Oct-Nov) and the tourney was announced in late 280 AC, I think it is likely that the tourney was planned to occur after her six-month bedridden state. This would make sense if, as is widely assumed, Rhaegar was bankrolling the whole event as an informal grand council. [To be clear, I am proposing that this tournament had multiple schemes. One was the issue of Aerys, the other the issue of the Prince that was Promised.]  Thus, the tourney would take place in April-May 281 AC, Elia being very early in her pregnancy or not even pregnant yet, to deliver Aegon in December 281 AC – January 282 AC (it is said that Aegon was born “near” the new year, so we have some flexibility as to which direction “near” actually is.)

Second, the tourney occurred during the narrow approximate two months of the false spring.

Everyone assumes this, but this makes no sense at all. Well, it still might of but doesn't have to.

Nowhere I can find says the Tourney was during the two month long False Spring, only during the 12 month long year of the false spring. If someone can point to where this is stated, great.

First relevant point.
"Winter" (as in the years long version) is not the same everywhere in Westeros. Its nasty in the far north, yes, and colder than usual elsewhere but that doesn't halt everything everywhere. So the Blackwater froze when winter returned (with a vengeance). So at the worse times (veangeance) in "winter" the climate in KL might be akin to north europe - Amsterdam with frozen canals for example. Further south its gentler.  Point is, "winter" is not the end of the world in westeros, except perhaps in the far North, up Winterfell way. Even "Winter" has its own variations at the same location, with nasty cold stormy periods and relatively fine somewhat warmer periods.

Second relevant point.
The tourney was announced in 280. That means it was announced, in winter - before they knew when (if!) Spring was coming. So its not clear that the tournament was 'aimed' at Spring at all.

Third relevant point.
When the tourney was announced, in "winter", that followed a visit to Harrenhal by Oswell Whent. Which would also have been in "winter". So clearly, "winter" does not make travel around Harrenhal impossible, nor necessarily, particularly onerous. Sure, its a nightmare up north, and not as easy as during the summer, but its clearly not impractical.

Fourth relevant point
A tourney this big, with people coming from all over westeros, some with weeks and even months of travel required, doesn't happen overnight. Or even over-week, or over-month. It needs planety of prep time, both for the hosts and also for the invitees to get the word prepare, and travel.
It might be possible that the tourney was 'announced' for " X weeks after spring is declared" and happened within the 2 month span, but that seems dubious to me. You'd need a much more complex set of plans and communications, and the retelling is pretty simple. I think its much more likely that a date was just picked, winter or no, and maybe they got lucky with the false spring. Or maybe it even happened before the false spring.
As a side note, the 'urgency' idea, would rule out a 'wait for spring' approach. That could be years away yet.

Counterpoint
Ned recalls warm days and cool nights. 
Counter-counterpoint
For Northerners like Ned, especially Ned, who has a particular affinity for cold, its all warm days down south, even in winter.

Summary
I can't see any real restriction on the timing of Harrenhal in terms of the weather/false spring things.
I am happy to be proved wrong. I don't have anything riding on this at all, just pointing out what appears to be a common false assumption.

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

But then winter returned. Everyone traveling would not be traveling on summer roads. Brandon was at Riverrun when the wedding date to Catelyn was announced, he dueled Littlefinger, and then headed North to join his father’s wedding party of ~200 men. This is said to have occurred in 282 AC. Brandon most certainly could travel quickly, but 200 northmen in the middle of winter would not travel well. 

I agree with the general idea, but I'm not so sure that its being applied correctly.
Just because its "winter" doesn't mean all travel is restricted. And if anyone knows how to travel in winter, its the northmen. Who are heading south, so its getting easier and easier.

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

In addition, Robert, Ned, and Jon were visiting from the Eyrie. 

The Eyrie, or the Vale?
The Eyrie isn't even always occupied during colder times.

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Everything we have heard about the Eyrie and the Mountains of the Moon indicates that travel during winter months would be hazardous.

They don't need to travel through the Mountains of the Moon. 

3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

If Harrenhal and Catelyn-Brandon wedding were to occur close together, why would Ned not have traveled to his brother’s wedding? Why would he have returned to the Vale? If not for Brandon, but to see his father Rickard, who was not at Harrenhal. The only reason that seems plausible to me is that the events are much further apart than they lead us to appear and that Ned had no reason to be in the riverlands for 9+ months.

I agree. It makes more sense if there is a larger gap between Harrenhal and the wedding/abduction. Closer to the 'about a year' that was the early timeframe, until more data got added in and compressed things in various amounts according to various people.

 

[corbon]

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

I can see this has already been discussed in this thread, but I think that Elia had to not only have known she was pregnant at Harrenhal, but would have been in the later states of her pregnancy. Which does make Rhaegar's crowing of another woman seem even more callous.

Not if she knew in advance.

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

Still, this doesn't mean that Rhaegar might not have used Harrenhal to scout some prospective females since there was no guarantee that Elia would survive her second pregnancy. But when she does, I don't see any reason that he and Elia would not want to create the third head themselves. Especially if Elia was as invested as Rheagar, which your theory hints at.

Agreed.

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

However, at this point, I don't see why Rhaegar thinks making two or three children is in his best benefit. After all, if he has two or three more living children, how does he decide which is his third head? Now he has four or five heads. It makes more sense to me that he would want to have his three heads come from the same father/mother dynamic, he and Elia.

Agreed.

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

As I mentioned above, what if all these children survive? Then how does Rhaegar distinguish what child is his third head? It seems like he could have been hoping for a girl, hinted at the names he chose for his children, Rhaenys, then Aegon, then Visenya makes sense, since this is the inverse birth order of Aegon the Conqueror and his sisters. What if all those children turn out to be boys, what does Rhaegar do? Maybe the sex of the child would not matter to Rhaegar?

Also, what would Ashara and Lyanna have been thinking that made them accept they should both be impregnated by a married man, a man whose wife was currently pregnant, and then both shack up together? Granted, GRRM did seem to love the 60's, but this is a leap for me to think that either Ashara or Lyanna would buy this concept. We don't know much about Ashara, but we know a little more about Lyanna, and if she was judging Robert for his lovers and bastards, why would she get herself tangled up with Rhaegar, who would be doing the same thing? Now, perhaps if Lyanna was unwilling to be a part of this plan, then Rhaegar would have seen a kidnapping and rape as his only option, but it's always felt odd to think of Rhaegar as a rapist, no matter how strongly Robert feels about it. 

Ok, I'll cut teh breaking up, all agreed!

1 hour ago, St Daga said:

Perhaps your Fellowship concept works as something Rhaegar set up, but I don't know if it was to create his third head. I think he and Elia had that handled, but he might have set up something to make sure that all three of his heads (his three children) were safe long after his death. Tolkein's Fellowship was also set up around the goal of taking a cursed item on a journey to be destroyed, which seems like an important concept that GRRM might like to maintain, if he was going to do a Fellowship homage, so perhaps a Fellowship charged with keeping these children safe as well as trying to reunite them at the correct time is something to consider.

I think this works the idea much better.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

24 minutes ago, corbon said:

Everyone assumes this, but this makes no sense at all. Well, it still might of but doesn't have to.

Nowhere I can find says the Tourney was during the two month long False Spring, only during the 12 month long year of the false spring. If someone can point to where this is stated, great.

Ned's thoughts;

He could no longer tell the difference between waking and sleeping. The memory came creeping on him in the darkness, as vivid as a dream. It was the year of the false spring, and he was eighteen again, down from the Eyrie to the tourney at Harrenhal. He could see the deep green of the grass, and smell the pollen on the wind. Warm days and cool nights and the sweet taste of wine.  (Eddard XV, AGoT 58)

Meera's story;

"Sometimes the knights are the monsters, Bran. The little crannogman was walking across the field, enjoying the warm spring day and harming none, when he was set upon by three squires. They were none older than fifteen, yet even so they were bigger than him, all three. This was their world, as they saw it, and he had no right to be there. They snatched away his spear and knocked him to the ground, cursing him for a frog eater." (Bran II, ASoS 24)

This is from The World of Ice and Fire;

In the annals of westeros, 281 AC is known as the Year of the False Spring. Winter had held the land in its icy grip for close on two years, but now at last the snows were melting, the woods were greening, the days were growing longer. Though the white ravens had not yet flown, there were many even at the Citadel of Oldtown who believed that winter's end was nigh.

As warm winds blew from the south, lords and knights from throughout the Seven Kingdoms made their way toward Harrenhal to compete in Lord Whent's great tournament on the shore of the Gods Eye, which promised to be the largest and most magnificent competition since the time of Aegon the Unlikely.

[corbon]

15 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Ned's thoughts;

He could no longer tell the difference between waking and sleeping. The memory came creeping on him in the darkness, as vivid as a dream. It was the year of the false spring, and he was eighteen again, down from the Eyrie to the tourney at Harrenhal. He could see the deep green of the grass, and smell the pollen on the wind. Warm days and cool nights and the sweet taste of wine.  (Eddard XV, AGoT 58)

Yep. That doesn't preclude it being "winter", though the pollen reference is much stronger.

15 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Meera's story;

"Sometimes the knights are the monsters, Bran. The little crannogman was walking across the field, enjoying the warm spring day and harming none, when he was set upon by three squires. They were none older than fifteen, yet even so they were bigger than him, all three. This was their world, as they saw it, and he had no right to be there. They snatched away his spear and knocked him to the ground, cursing him for a frog eater." (Bran II, ASoS 24)

Ok. So it was spring, at least in story-telling terms.

15 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

This is from The World of Ice and Fire;

In the annals of westeros, 281 AC is known as the Year of the False Spring. Winter had held the land in its icy grip for close on two years, but now at last the snows were melting, the woods were greening, the days were growing longer. Though the white ravens had not yet flown, there were many even at the Citadel of Oldtown who believed that winter's end was nigh.

As warm winds blew from the south, lords and knights from throughout the Seven Kingdoms made their way toward Harrenhal to compete in Lord Whent's great tournament on the shore of the Gods Eye, which promised to be the largest and most magnificent competition since the time of Aegon the Unlikely.

Yep. But much of that is overwrought prose. Its clear that "winter" and "summer" and therefore "spring" have internal 'seasons' - or at least are not blanket same-same except perhaps in the more extreme regions.

Note that the snows melted, woods greened, days lengthened etc etc before "winter" had ended. The white ravens had not flown and the Maester's were thinking that winter's end was 'nigh', not past.

Thats pretty much my point.
Much is made of the difference between "winter" and "spring" in the year of the False Spring, but I don't think there is a lot of difference (at least on the front end). Only the 'return' of winter (with a vengeance) is significant near the end of the year.

I don't see anything more than the casual use of 'spring' to signify pleasant warmth relative to the grip of full icy full winter that places the tourney within the 2 month "Spring" period - and we know it was planned and announced in "winter". 

 

[St Daga]

15 hours ago, corbon said:

Not if she knew in advance.

I wasn't specific. Sorry. Not callous towards Elia (if she knew what he was up to), but callous in appearance to all the people who witnessed the action. Rhaegar might not have cared, but perception is important. It sounds like the general population of the tourney attendees was already shocked by the appearance and decline of Aerys, and then to watch his heir act in a way that could be a perceived insult towards his pregnant wife, might have combined to make more people doubt the Targaryen's than support them. 

 

[St Daga]

On 4/20/2020 at 3:32 PM, kissdbyfire said:

I don't think Allyria is a very reliable source irt a possible romance between Ashara and Ned. Ned Dayne heard what he heard when he was a small kid, many years after the Tourney. And when we hear this, it's through Ned telling Arya he and Jon Snow are milk brothers and that Wylla is Jon's mum. And we also get Harwin telling Arya he didn't believe there was anything to it. 

My impression upon hearing Meera tell Bran about the Tourney has always been that it was Brandon who had a thing w/ Ashara.

My gut instinct is it was Brandon that was perhaps interested in Ashara at Harrenhal, but I do wonder if perhaps Robert didn't get drunk and past frisky and overstep himself with Ashara.

As to the information from Allyria via Ned Dayne, I find myself torn. While I think it's questionable to take a story told by a child (since we don't know how old Edric and Allyria were at the time she told him) to another child as being correct in details, even broad ones. If this was my real life, I would have some doubt and want to confirm with an adult who had some information before deciding if it's true or not. On the other hand, GRRM does use his characters to give us hints about the past, so it's possible that GRRM is using Allyria via Ned to give us some valuable information. I sometimes chase my thoughts around in circles over these kinds of questions in regards to the text. 

[St Daga]

On 4/20/2020 at 2:07 PM, Lady Rhodes said:

The Fellowship: Rhaegar Targaryen, Elia Martell, Lyanna Stark, Arthur Dayne, Ashara Dayne, Oswell Whent.  

The following three I am unsure of, but I am guessing Queen Rhaella, Willem Darry, and Llweyn Martell.

Another thought I had on your Fellowship members is how it would seem they should include Rhaegar, as well as the people whom he "had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants"  which would then already makes seve of nine. It's possible that Ashara could have been one of these riders, but Elia would not have been, since she was back on Dragonstone with Prince Aegon. If Lyanna makes one more, then we are only missing one person to make the total of nine. Do you think that at this time three of the kingsguard (Dayne, Whent, Martell) would have been traveling with Rhaegar? Also hard to imagine that the Red Keep's Master at Arms, Willem Darry, would have been allowed to ride out with Rhaegar. I am just trying to feel out/fit the proposed members of your Fellowship fit into what we know of this world. Perhaps I am mistaken to think that Rhaegar and his half dozen "closest friends and confidants" would be included in this Fellowship?

And just because I was looking at that quote from The World Book, I again question were Princess Rhaenys was, because she is not mentioned as being on Dragonstone with Elia and Aegon. Where is their two year old daughter, and did that have something to do with Rhaegar's mission?

[Lady Anna]

What would be Lyanna's and Ashara's motivations to go along with this. Cause it seems a risky situation, to say the least. They're two highborn ladies who decide to serve as incubators on the off chance one of them gives birth to a prophetic prince? What would happen after? Even if one of them was succesful the other would be an unmarried mother whose reputation would have been destroyed. The only option is if they were forced to do it, which just makes this story sinister and honestly evil.