Covid-19 #16: Not Waving, Loop-de-Looping

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

The US went from 150,000 dead to 170,000 dead in 17 days.

#1! USA! YAY!  #1!  So much #Winning we are tired of the Winning!

[Altherion]

The US only looks bad if you look at it from the perspective of people with neither money nor influence. It's quite a different story for the rich:

Quote

So what are these elite tech founders doing with their wealth? Mostly living life as they did before coronavirus. I’ve spoken to numerous people who’ve described countless billionaires hitting the road, flying around the country to wherever case numbers are lowest. One investor worth several billion who has several homes told a friend—who then parlayed the information to me in tones of shock and awe and more than a tinge of jealousy—that he was in Miami when the numbers were lowest at the start of the pandemic; hopped over to Los Angeles when Florida got a bit dicey; and now that California is a hotbed, is in New York enjoying the season’s outdoor dining. Another billionaire in Los Angeles has been hosting lavish dinner parties (no social media allowed) where an on-site nurse administers 15-minute coronavirus tests outside as guests drink cocktails, and allows them in to dine once their test comes back negative. And yet another investor told me about some of his colleagues who chipped in for a massive $50,000-a-month compound in Palm Springs that’s being used as a group party house. (I’ve heard about similar setups in Los Angeles and Silicon Valley.)

...

But the area in which the rich have perhaps most distinguished themselves from the other 99 percent is their kids’ education. One California government official told me that some public school teachers are being enticed away to teach a single child in more affluent areas, like Beverly Hills and Palo Alto—a scenario this person called “fucked up,” and one that’s proving to be a real problem for school systems. Others who can’t afford a single teacher are creating pods. As a doctor recently told me, “Coronavirus is a poor person’s virus. We’re seeing it spread in poor neighborhoods, to poor families who have to go to work and live in close proximity to each other, and poor kids are the ones who will not get a proper education.”

In other news, the unemployment rate in New York City is a little over 20%. As with most shocks to the economy, the virus exacerbated existing trends rather than changing the nature of the system.

[Week]

2 hours ago, Altherion said:

The US only looks bad if you look at it from the perspective of people with neither money nor influence. It's quite a different story for the rich:

I'd argue that looks pretty bad for the rich as well. Sociopathic. "Let them eat cake" level of empathy and awareness.

[Clueless Northman]

57 minutes ago, Week said:

I'd argue that looks pretty bad for the rich as well. Sociopathic. "Let them eat cake" level of empathy and awareness.

It'll look pretty bad for them when American people will use their guns and shoot them on the spot as if they were the hated elite during the Russian revolution. Until this happens, I stick with my opinion that they have a far kinder and nicer fate than they deserve. I wish they would be named so that they maybe could face the wrath of the people they've abused, robbed and left to die.

So I'm not surprised at all by this happening. I mean, this is basically what's portrayed in the introduction to the Decameron.

[The Anti-Targ]

4 hours ago, Altherion said:

Another billionaire in Los Angeles has been hosting lavish dinner parties (no social media allowed)

I mean that says it all really. In this age of instant self-promotion of how well connected one is with the rich and famous, banning of social media at these soirees means they are fully aware that this would cause people to scream bloody murder.

Y'know I wouldn't begrudge the mega-rich living according to the manner they are accustomed if they also did some helpful stuff for us plebs at the same time. Maybe something like adopting a public school or two (esp in poor areas) and donating a [decent] laptop to every student so they can continue with their education, to some degree, at home. And maybe try to set up some free community wi-fi. And how about setting up some of those 15-minute testing stations in work-places (and giving people paid sick leave if the test comes back positive and the worker has to go home) given it's taking several days for the regular test to provide results, by which time the test result becomes useless as a mechanism to help control the spread?

There might be the occasional person to hocks off their laptop to by drugs (according to the media, but more likely it will be for food or to pay the power bill), but the vast majority will keep it and use it for the purpose it was given (and for watching cat videos on Tik Tok during spare time).

Also this: I wonder how many people know that mink farming happens in the USA? I've been told by a colleague that mink farms were being phased out in EU member states, but the COVID epidemic sweeping through mink farms there has accelerated the phase out timetable, one nanometre thin silver lining to COVID I guess.  I assume there isn't a phase out intended for the USA.

But please, can we all spare a thought for the poor rich who have to resort to teaching pods because they can't afford a teacher of their own. They are putting their children's lives at risk, you know.

Quote

Washington, D.C., August 17, 2020 -- The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) National Veterinary Services Laboratories (NVSL) today announced the first confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID-19 in humans) in mink at two farms in Utah. These are the first confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 in mink in the United States. The affected farms also reported positive cases of COVID-19 in people who had contact with the mink. 

After unusually large numbers of mink died at the farms, the Utah Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory completed necropsies on several of the affected animals.  Samples were forwarded and tested presumptive positive for SARS-CoV-2 at the Washington Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory. Both laboratories are members of the National Animal Health Laboratory Network.  The presumptive positive samples were then sent to NVSL for confirmatory testing. 

Mink were known to be susceptible to SARS-CoV-2, as the virus was discovered in mink on multiple farms in the Netherlands. Those affected farms also experienced an increase in mink deaths.  Affected mink farms have also been identified in Spain and Denmark. USDA has closely monitored these outbreaks and recently issued a document containing guidance for farmed mink in the United States.

There is currently no evidence that animals, including mink, play a significant role in spreading the virus to humans. Based on the limited information available to date, the risk of animals spreading SARS-CoV-2 to people is considered to be low.  More studies are needed to understand how different species may be affected by the virus that causes COVID-19, and whether animals may play a role in the spread of the virus.

 

[Zorral]

 I am swearing.  I really am swearing.  I swear I do NOT understand the homo sap at all.

A very good friend has had breast cancer.  She had a mastectomy, chemo, radiation, and she's survived.

This weekend she had lunch (outdoors) with her neighbor. Their household and my friend and her husband make a pod so to speak with her neighbor, her husband and their 5 year-old daughter.  Friend babysits often for the child, takes her to school when husband is away for work and mom has to get to work, and so on.

Husband returned home in PA, from New Mexico at the end of last week.  He's been having bad congestion, cough, a temperature, though the tests said he doesn't have the flu (but nobody tested for covid).  He's sort of isolating their house's basement.  But his wife went and had lunch with friend whose immune system must be some what compromised from her breast cancer treatments, five years ago.

As of today, a routine check-up show my friend's cancer has returned and spread.

Meanwhile child's mom is unhappy that the school where the child is supposed to return, with 10 kids, a Montessori school, next week -- they don't want her to come back if there is covid in her household.  "But we don't know whether there is or not!" wails mom.  "So why can't she go to school?" In the meantime she doesn't yet know that her back-up baby-sitter may not be able to do it anymore.

Moreover friend can't get a covid test, which she must have, until her new blood test appointment is confirmed.

Worse than nothing is what this country WINS at!

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

58 minutes ago, Zorral said:

 I am swearing.  I really am swearing.  I swear I do NOT understand the homo sap at all.

A very good friend has had breast cancer.  She had a mastectomy, chemo, radiation, and she's survived.

This weekend she had lunch (outdoors) with her neighbor. Their household and my friend and her husband make a pod so to speak with her neighbor, her husband and their 5 year-old daughter.  Friend babysits often for the child, takes her to school when husband is away for work and mom has to get to work, and so on.

Husband returned home in PA, from New Mexico at the end of last week.  He's been having bad congestion, cough, a temperature, though the tests said he doesn't have the flu (but nobody tested for covid).  He's sort of isolating their house's basement.  But his wife went and had lunch with friend whose immune system must be some what compromised from her breast cancer treatments, five years ago.

As of today, a routine check-up show my friend's cancer has returned and spread.

Meanwhile child's mom is unhappy that the school where the child is supposed to return, with 10 kids, a Montessori school, next week -- they don't want her to come back if there is covid in her household.  "But we don't know whether there is or not!" wails mom.  "So why can't she go to school?" In the meantime she doesn't yet know that her back-up baby-sitter may not be able to do it anymore.

Moreover friend can't get a covid test, which she must have, until her new blood test appointment is confirmed.

Worse than nothing is what this country WINS at!

 

 

The key understanding to get across to people is if you have symptoms consistent with COVID-19 you should assume, and act, as if you have COVID-19 until you have a test that confirms you don't have it.

According to Donald Trump New Zealand is having a terrible surge in the disease. It's possibly worth noting that the current daily peak in confirmed cases is 13, which is the equivalent of 850 cases per day in the USA. Though strictly speaking all those cases are in Auckland a city of 1.3 million people. So if you translate that to the USA equivalent it increases to a daily case confirmation rate of 3,270 for the USA. A terrible surge indeed. Imagine how life would be in the USA if it was only getting 3,500 new confirmed cases a day across the country? The last time the USA had less than 10,000 cases confirmed in a day was 22 March.

[The Anti-Targ]

On 8/13/2020 at 9:43 PM, rotting sea cow said:

Well, contaminated frozen food/packaging was also my working hypothesis for that strange outbreak at the Argentinian ship.

I tend to believe that the probabilities are still low, but I wouldn't dismiss it completely. Here, as with the other samples detected frozen food markets, we urgently need studies about the virus viability. That's they aren't just detecting RNA pieces. If they do it in NZ, please keep us updated. It's the only way to be sure.

As for tracing back to contaminated food. I think, it's generally hard to prove amid a bigger outbreak, when chances from other ways seem higher.

It might even be that the Wuhan market outbreak started in a similar way?

Latest press conference says the testing at the Americold facility is done and a report is being compiled (my Ministry did this work). There is no official conclusion yet, but the DG of health said all indications are that the investigation will rule out goods contamination as the pathway for this current outbreak into the country.

[Guy Kilmore]

Well, one case already noted at Sturgis.  https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/08/18/south-dakota-tallies-460000-vehicles-during-sturgis-rally

[The Anti-Targ]

Let's just hope there wasn't a super-spreader present in any of the crowded events at Sturgis. Bad enough that there is almost certainly going to be several normal spreader people there.

I realised comparing our present second wave to the USA is not really apples to apples. So maybe a comparison to what's happening in Victoria for a sense of proportion.

The most apples to apples comparison is Auckland cf Melbourne. Current cases in Melbourne is roughly 200 per day. Current cases in Auckland is roughly 10 per day. If Melbourne was seeing a comparable rate of cases as Auckland it would be seeing about 38 cases per day. Melbourne at the peak of this wave was seeing, what 650 cases per day? If things get out of control in Auckland a comparable peak would be 170 cases per day. This would be considerably worse than the national peak in the first wave which was about 100 cases in a single day. If the Ministry of Health / Police etc can keep this wave to a 50 case per day peak and all in Auckland that would be a success in controlling this wave. The only failing being letting it in in the first place, but even then no one should be expecting control measures to be 100% effective.

If Covid was an STD and NZ is (was) an STD free person, then our border control measures are like having sex with multiple partners known to have STDs and using antibiotic / antiviral creams and lotions and frequent testing at STD clinics as protection. If we wanted to use the border control equivalent of condoms then we would require all travelers to have undergone full quarantine and testing before leaving the country of departure, and still remain in managed isolation for 7 days and have a final clearing test before being let out into the country. And all product packaging would need to be anti-viral treated before clearing the border. the problem with the people movement controls would mean cooperation by the departing country health and security authorities. And they are likely to respond with a middle finger. Which would leave us with sealing off the border for all but the most essential travel.

[The Anti-Targ]

The USA is headed to 200,000 deaths some time in September. To stay below 200,00 deaths before the end of September the USA needs to average less than 595 deaths per day from now on. That seems unlikely. But if the USA can get daily case numbers down into the low 20,000s indications from the last time the US was seeing those numbers is daily death count could be somewhere around 520 deaths per day.

[Zorral]

John M. Barry advises if we don't do what is necessary here, right now, the economy for this country is trashed for any foreseeable future.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/18/opinion/coronavirus-economy.html

Quote

 

[....]
Bad as the virus has been this summer, it actually spreads better in low temperatures, and when temperatures fall, more people will be inside in poorly ventilated areas where transmission is also more likely. If the U.S. goes into the fall with new daily cases in the tens of thousands, as they are now, then the numbers could explode and the Morgan Stanley prediction could come true. Considering our containment efforts to date, there is little reason for optimism.

But containment, and the confidence that goes with it, is not remotely where we are at the moment. Among developed nations, the U.S. ranks first in categories one would prefer to be last in: number of cases and number of deaths. It lags well behind in economic recovery as well. As of this writing, the European Union and Britain combined have a population of about 510 million, and 1,924,569 Covid-19 cases. They have had around 8,000 cases for the latest daily count. The United States, population 328 million, just passed 5.4 million cases, with 42,303 the latest daily case count.
[....]

 

But, way back after feminist and anti-racism moves were being put in place at the end of the 1960's, the blue collar Dem voters already decided they preferred the end of their economic well-being to accepting social change, and the rethugs RAN deliberately with that and fostered it in every way -- Reaganlandia by Rick Perlstein p. 33, within the chapter titled "What Is An Orin Hatch?"

[Zorral]

Sorry for double posting, but this could be of use to any one of us -- the order of appearance in symptoms indicating c19 infection:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2020-08-19/the-order-covid-19-symptoms-present/12571116

Quote

 

The researchers found the initial symptoms often appear in the following specific order:

1.Fever

2.Cough

3.Nausea and/or vomiting

4.Diarrhoea

 

 

[Fragile Bird]

Anyone else deeply suspicious that US (lol, not IS) numbers are being manufactured to help Trump’s re-election campaign? Test numbers are slowly dropping.

[Altherion]

18 hours ago, Zorral said:

John M. Barry advises if we don't do what is necessary here, right now, the economy for this country is trashed for any foreseeable future.

It rather depends on what you mean by "the economy". For example, the S&P 500 has just exceeded pre-virus levels and hit an all-time high. There will undoubtedly be some redistribution, but the people who make all of the decisions should be fine in nearly all cases.

[Fragile Bird]

24 minutes ago, Altherion said:

It rather depends on what you mean by "the economy". For example, the S&P 500 has just exceeded pre-virus levels and hit an all-time high. There will undoubtedly be some redistribution, but the people who make all of the decisions should be fine in nearly all cases.

How many thousands of times do you have to hear or read that the stock market is not the economy before it sinks in?

[Altherion]

10 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

How many thousands of times do you have to hear or read that the stock market is not the economy before it sinks in?

I am fully aware that the stock market is not the economy. However, as things currently stand, a lot of people are in serious trouble... but a lot of other people are actually better off in most respects than they were before and a third group is about the same. "The economy" is some impossible to fully define or comprehend average of all of these which we try to grasp with a long list of indicators (of which the stock market is just one). The linked article is about getting back to the pre-viral status quo which indeed looks quite unlikely, but that does not mean that "the economy" will be "trashed", it just means significant redistribution (e.g. tech companies get richer while the hospitality industry gets poorer).

The stock market is usually (but not always) a leading indicator. Of course, there has never been anything quite like this so it can be seriously confused and collapse again tomorrow, but it appears that investors believe they've sorted out the winners and losers by now. Again, this does not at all help the people whose jobs depend on tourism and the like, but the people making decisions will probably be fine.

[Zorral]

4 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Anyone else deeply suspicious that IS numbers are being manufactured to help Trump’s re-election campaign? Test numbers are slowly dropping.

They've been changing all the rules of reportage and data gathering since weeks ago already.  So, yah, they are playing silly buggers-and-disappear-numbers for quite some time.  

Honestly, I'm suspicious that something like this is going on in NYC and the region for that matter. with so many Young and Rich from everywhere in the City and other states (ignoring the quarantine regulations) gathering in masses every night drinking and partying like no tomorrow -- inside and outside.  

De Blasio at least, has shown himself determined to ignore facts since this thing began -- as with insisting on physical classroom teaching, when, just for starters, all the schools are death traps, with no windows, or windows that don't open, narrow hallways, no cross ventilation, etc.

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

It rather depends on what you mean by "the economy". For example, the S&P 500 has just exceeded pre-virus levels and hit an all-time high. There will undoubtedly be some redistribution, but the people who make all of the decisions should be fine in nearly all cases.

John M. Barry is fully knowledgable that that isn't the national economy per se.   It is a point competition in which the internationally plutocratically obese obscenities entertain each other.

As, of course, are ourselves and many others:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/08/18/business/economy/coronavirus-economic-recovery-states.html?

 

[felice]

50 minutes ago, Altherion said:

However, as things currently stand, a lot of people are in serious trouble... but a lot of other people are actually better off in most respects than they were before and a third group is about the same.

That sounds reasonable enough, except the better off group is several orders of magnitude smaller than the worse off group, and consists mostly of people who were already excessively well off to start with.

50 minutes ago, Altherion said:

but the people making decisions will probably be fine.

Oh, well, that's ok then!