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U.S. Politics: End Testing, Make Schools Safe Again!


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13 minutes ago, DMC said:

I don't know what this means.  Biden's 538 average is 3 points, that's why the lead is eye popping compared to other polls.  Plus Cooper up by 20.  I'd say Cunningham's margin is surprising too, but actually quite a few polls lately have shown him up by that much

Most of the state by state polling is pretty heavily leaning towards Biden right now. It has been for a bit, and it's unlikely it will change. However, as I've said time and again, it doesn't matter until we have a clear understanding of what the voting situation will be. 

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Another failed attempt at humor I see.  And I don't teach children.  Well, they're not legally children.  Either way, I'm the one who's unemployed right now so I'd say I have a vested interest.

Lol, I'd love to watch you try and be a camp councilor for a day, given it's the summer time.

And we're both relying on that government money bro, and neither of us is necessarily hireable to our standards. 

(Also, I thought you would laugh at the idea of teaching kids how to sell cigs. Don't act like you didn't do it when you were young)

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So much wrong going on in this article, but a white nationalist, Miller, guiding our Coronavirus response is pretty galling. I mean given the vast inequalities already at play having our federal response be racially tinged is an especially bad idea.

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“The best thing that we can do to set our economy up for success and rebounding from the last few months is making sure our outbreak is in a good place,” said Caitlin Rivers, epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “People are not going to feel comfortable returning to activities in the community — even if it’s allowed from a policy perspective — if they don’t feel the outbreak is under control.”

Some aides and outside advisers have, in fact, tried to stress to Trump and others in his orbit that before he could move on to reopening the economy and getting the country back to work — and life — he needed to grapple with the reality of the virus.

But until recently, the president was largely unreceptive to that message, they said, not fully grasping the magnitude of the pandemic — and overly preoccupied with his own sense of grievance, beginning many conversations casting himself as the blameless victim of the crisis.

In the past couple of weeks, senior advisers began presenting Trump with maps and data showing spikes in coronavirus cases among “our people” in Republican states, a senior administration official said. They also shared projections predicting that virus surges could soon hit politically important states in the Midwest — including Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin, the official said.

This new approach seemed to resonate, as he hewed closely to pre-scripted remarks in a trio of coronavirus briefings last week.

“This could have been stopped. It could have been stopped quickly and easily. But for some reason, it wasn’t, and we’ll figure out what that reason was,” Trump said Thursday, seemingly to simultaneously acknowledge his predicament while also trying to assign blame elsewhere.

In addition to Birx and Kushner, the new coronavirus group guiding Trump includes Kushner advisers Adam Boehler and Brad Smith, according to two administration officials. Marc Short, chief of staff to Vice President Pence, also attends, along with Alyssa Farah, the White House director of strategic communications, and Stephen Miller, Trump’s senior policy adviser.

 

One question still dogs Trump: Why not try harder to solve the coronavirus crisis?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-not-solve-coronavirus-crisis/2020/07/26/7fca9a92-cdb0-11ea-91f1-28aca4d833a0_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_trumpfix-650am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Most of the state by state polling is pretty heavily leaning towards Biden right now.

Except, most haven't shown Biden up by 7 in NC, usually it's around half of that.  That's way it's definitionally eye-popping.

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Lol, I'd love to watch you try and be a camp councilor for a day, given it's the summer time.

And we're both relying on that government money bro, and neither of us is necessarily hireable to our standards. 

(Also, I thought you would laugh at the idea of teaching kids how to sell cigs. Don't act like you didn't do it when you were young)

I've had some (distant) family and friends suggest - over the years not just now - that I should teach high school.  My response is I do not think I'd be good with kids.  What I like about teaching college is I can reasonably expect students to act like adults.  I don't think I'd do well without that expectation.  So, I suppose I share your sentiment.

Didn't know you were unemployed as well, sorry.

Umm...I don't think I ever bought cigarettes for anyone but myself.  That was certainly not the substance I made money off of.  Also, how do you "teach" anyone how to sell cigarettes?  Isn't that kind of intuitive?

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4 minutes ago, DMC said:

Except, most haven't shown Biden up by 7 in NC, usually it's around half of that.  That's way it's definitionally eye-popping.

I've had some (distant) family and friends suggest - over the years not just now - that I should teach high school.  My response is I do not think I'd be good with kids.  What I like about teaching college is I can reasonably expect students to act like adults.  I don't think I'd do well without that expectation.  So, I suppose I share your sentiment.

Is your school not doing online classes or do you abhorr them too much to engage?

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Well, I know the university I just got my phd from, or at least the poly sci department, is planning a hybrid format.  I'm not sure of the details - because obviously since I'm done they're no longer hiring me for anything.  I'd be willing to teach online classes just about anywhere, and have applied to do so many many places.  The market just sucks right now.

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2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Except, most haven't shown Biden up by 7 in NC, usually it's around half of that.  That's way it's definitionally eye-popping.

Biden sometimes polls ahead of Trump in Texas. TEXAS!!! The Holy Grail. A dream that was still a long time in the making. And Biden is holding serve. NC is still a state that must be flipped, but if we get the golden goose, nothing else matters. 

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I've had some (distant) family and friends suggest - over the years not just now - that I should teach high school.  My response is I do not think I'd be good with kids.  What I like about teaching college is I can reasonably expect students to act like adults.  I don't think I'd do well without that expectation.  So, I suppose I share your sentiment.

You might do better with kids, but we're friends right? I can be honest? You'd probably suck at both. I think you'd be much better at teaching graduate level courses, both because you'd be happier there and because it suits you. 

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Didn't know you were unemployed as well, sorry.

No biggy. I make more staying home, and I am actually furloughed so I still get health insurance. Man would that have been awful if I lost it before I found myself in the hospital for a few days. That shit is really expensive before the write everything off. 
 

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Umm...I don't think I ever bought cigarettes for anyone but myself.  That was certainly not the substance I made money off of.  Also, how do you "teach" anyone how to sell cigarettes?  Isn't that kind of intuitive?

Well I specifically cited a low level narcotic for a reason....

And you teach people how not to get caught, which no, is far from intuitive. 

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9 minutes ago, DMC said:

Well, I know the university I just got my phd from, or at least the poly sci department, is planning a hybrid format.  I'm not sure of the details - because obviously since I'm done they're no longer hiring me for anything.  I'd be willing to teach online classes just about anywhere, and have applied to do so many many places.  The market just sucks right now.

Plus side, you got your doctorate which you've been chasing for a while. This isn't the worst time to relax a bit. Everything is next to fucked until next spring.  

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38 minutes ago, Fez said:

Marist still isn't weighting by education (though they claim to be doing other stuff to keep their polls accurate).

Sorry, I wanna come back to this.  I know a lot of people are now questioning polls that don't weight by education, but that shouldn't necessarily be the case as many times it's a valid - even the correct - methodological decision.  Education, obviously, has multicollinearity with a number of other demos.  The more variables you "weight," the more you're potentially skewing the hard numbers the other way, or overcorrecting.

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Biden sometimes polls ahead of Trump in Texas. TEXAS!!! The Holy Grail. A dream that was still a long time in the making. And Biden is holding serve. NC is still a state that must be flipped, but if we get the golden goose, nothing else matters. 

What does this have to do with anything I said?

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You might do better with kids, but we're friends right? I can be honest? You'd probably suck at both. I think you'd be much better at teaching graduate level courses, both because you'd be happier there and because it suits you. 

Eh, I like teaching undergrads, and I get great evaluations - plus plenty of students that seek my advice for career/academic advancement (which I find ironic right now) - so empirical evidence suggests I'm pretty good at it.  Besides, you can only teach grad-level courses if you have a tenure-track position.  That's not happening anytime soon (and wasn't even before covid).

If kids can't figure out how not to get caught buying/selling cigarettes all by themselves, then they deserve to get caught.

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9 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

This isn't the worst time to relax a bit.

It'd be great if I haven't already significantly eaten into my savings as a decade-long grad student/adjunct!  Saw a report the other day that 39% of young people have had to dip in their savings, and on average they've already spent 33% of their savings.  I'm right there.

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28 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And Biden is holding serve.

Surely if this is a tennis metaphor, Trump is holding serve, and keeps double-faulting?

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17 minutes ago, DMC said:

What does this have to do with anything I said?

Because who gives a flying fuck about NC when TX is in play?
 

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Eh, I like teaching undergrads, and I get great evaluations - plus plenty of students that seek my advice for career/academic advancement (which I find ironic right now) - so empirical evidence suggests I'm pretty good at it.  Besides, you can only teach grad-level courses if you have a tenure-track position.  That's not happening anytime soon (and wasn't even before covid).

You know, I always could see you behaving like this.

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If kids can't figure out how not to get caught buying/selling cigarettes all by themselves, then they deserve to get caught.

No, they just need a bit of helpful guidance. Sometimes kids just need to be thrown into a lake so they can learn how to swim.

14 minutes ago, DMC said:

It'd be great if I haven't already significantly eaten into my savings as a decade-long grad student/adjunct!  Saw a report the other day that 39% of young people have had to dip in their savings, and on average they've already spent 33% of their savings.  I'm right there.

Young people have actual savings these days?

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3 minutes ago, mormont said:

Surely if this is a tennis metaphor, Trump is holding serve, and keeps double-faulting?

Pretty sure holding serve means winning those games. Trump is getting broken.

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6 minutes ago, mormont said:

Surely if this is a tennis metaphor, Trump is holding serve, and keeps double-faulting?

Then he's not holding serve, is he? Biden just needs to avoid mistakes, as he's doing just that. Trump is double-faulting left and right. 

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3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

Young people have actual savings these days?

That was my initial reaction. I don't consider myself young anymore, and barely people besides, but color me surprised that they even have savings to tap.

 

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Texas is even, and I'd suggest that Trump will outperform his poll numbers there, it seems too big a leap to go from a leans red state to a blue state in one cycle. NC on the other hand, Biden is on the edge of the polling error. Since NC has gone for Democratic candidates in the recent past, if I were a betting man with finite resources I'd go for NC,

Not to mention Cunningham appears to be outperforming Biden, so that senate seat may be a pick up. On the other hand, Biden is outperforming Hagen (?), so the Texas senate seat will not be a pick up.

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1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Texas is even, and I'd suggest that Trump will outperform his poll numbers there, it seems too big a leap to go from a leans red state to a blue state in one cycle. NC on the other hand, Biden is on the edge of the polling error. Since NC has gone for Democratic candidates in the recent past, if I were a betting man with finite resources I'd go for NC,

Not to mention Cunningham appears to be outperforming Biden, so that senate seat may be a pick up. On the other hand, Biden is outperforming Hagen (?), so the Texas senate seat will not be a pick up.

Exactly.  I'd much rather Biden focus on winning NC than on almost winning Texas. 

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1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Exactly.  I'd much rather Biden focus on winning NC than on almost winning Texas. 

I find myself in this camp as well. The fact that Trump will need to devote resources there is already a huge win. Too bad Beto turned out to be such a Beta.

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Just now, Maithanet said:

Exactly.  I'd much rather Biden focus on winning NC than on almost winning Texas. 

Win CA, NY, FL and TX, game over. NC is a nice prize, but it's not the ball game.

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13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Because who gives a flying fuck about NC when TX is in play?

Because NC is much more achievable than TX.  Strange things happen at the one-two point.  There's a (remote) possibility NC is the tipping point state.  There's no possibility Texas will be.

15 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

You know, I always could see you behaving like this.

Ew, no.  Beyond the creepiness, I'd never want to hang out with students.

16 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

No, they just need a bit of helpful guidance. Sometimes kids just need to be thrown into a lake so they can learn how to swim.

Fuck that, Darwinism!

10 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

That was my initial reaction. I don't consider myself young anymore, and barely people besides, but color me surprised that they even have savings to tap.

I don't know for sure, but I think by "young people" they mean anyone under 40.  Or maybe 35.  My sister is 32 and her and her husband have shitloads of savings, even after buying a house.

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