Ran Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 39 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Does anyone else feel like the Democrats are missing a real opportunity to pick up a senate seat in Texas? There was a poll that came out today with Cornyn up just one 47/46. And that's with Hegar still getting virtually no national support and being (relatively) unknown in Texas. Biden's campaign threw $6-some million there just the other day. A week ago Hegar announced having raised $13.5 million in the third quarter, more than Ted Cruz did to fend off Beto two years ago. There is definitely an active effort from the Democrats to boost the chances of flipping Texas and unseating Cornyn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 538 just came out with their "House forecast." They have the Dems on pace to win 236.7 seats, or a gain of...1.7 seats. Sounds pretty boring. In other news Cook moved the South Carolina Senate race to tossup. Now don't get the vapors, but my word it's getting interesting Lindsey! 45 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Not sure if it has been posted here yet, but Facebook is officially banning all QAnon platforms from its site. ...Again: Quote Facebook said in a Tuesday press release that it “will remove any Facebook Pages, Groups and Instagram accounts representing QAnon” from its platforms. Although it’s unclear how Facebook is defining affiliations with QAnon accounts, this announcement appears to be one of the broadest bans Facebook has ever imposed. The new ban expands on the social network’s previous actions against the conspiracy theory and its followers. In August, Facebook announced that it had removed hundreds of QAnon Facebook groups and pages for “discussions of potential violence.” The company now says it will remove such pages and groups “even if they contain no violent content.” The announcement also comes after Facebook’s announcement last week that will promote credible information about child safety, after QAnon hijacked related hashtags like #SaveTheChildren. 36 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Does anyone else feel like the Democrats are missing a real opportunity to pick up a senate seat in Texas? Not really, no. I mean, if you're asking me should they invest in beating Cornyn over beating McConnell..um, sure, but like Ran said they're investing there, and I don't think either is actually gonna happen unless Biden really does win by double digits - or maybe even the teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 minute ago, Ran said: Biden's campaign threw $6-some million there just the other day. A week ago Hegar announced having raised $13.5 million in the third quarter, more than Ted Cruz did to fend of Beto two years ago. There is definitely an active effort from the Democrats to boost the chances of flipping Texas and unseating Cornyn. Yeah, I know. But for a campaign in as big a state as Texas, $13.5 million isn't that much. In all likelihood, I am just putting too much emphasis on the state legislature races, because I really, really want to see the Dems make some progress in the big states like TX, FL, NC, PA, MI and AZ. It is ridiculous that the Democrats have so little power at the state level. If the dems could flip even half of those, then the 2022-2030 House map will be relatively fair, and the state redistricting will potentially allow further progress. Not to mention the many things they could potentially do at the state level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Lets not get carried away with +15 talk. The current state of the race is probably closer to +9/10 in the sweet afterglow of the debates and the dexamethasone fueled weekend at Walter Reed. I wouldnt place too much stock in the stimulus package stuff either because this is a well known Trump tactic (I know the Art of the Deal, ghostwritten as it was, made a big deal about being ready to walk away from any negotiations). The next few days will be back to negotiations is my take on it. There is still time for it to come down to a +7 race where the situation is more ambiguous. My somewhat modest hopes are to regain the Presidency and get close to a Senate majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said: My somewhat modest hopes are to regain the Presidency and get close to a Senate majority. I do not in any way think that Biden will win by 15, my hope is that Biden holds steady like he has and finishes with +9. In that scenario, Dems probably win 51-53 Senate seats and flipping some of the important state legislatures like Texas (which has outgrown its 2010 gerrymander) is definitely on the table. As for what I expect, I vacillate between Biden +8 that looks super close for a while, but in the end isn't, and Biden +5 that is preposterously close in the electoral college which allows a four week nightmare scenario after election day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 11 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Lets not get carried away with +15 talk. Don't think anyone was. It's very unlikely Biden nor anyone could win by double digits in a presidential contest in this climate (NOT just due to Trump), let alone 15. That was kinda that point. I'd say the realistic BCS is something like 2008 - Biden wins by 7-8 and they pickup all the tossups in the Senate, so +7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 The spin coming out of the Biden/Harris camp to tamp down expectations tonight is kind of hilarious in how utterly unbelievable it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 17 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Lets not get carried away with +15 talk. Of course. But it can be fun to dream. I do think Biden +15 is more likely than Trump winning the popular vote though, which speaks to the overall state of the race. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 8 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: Pence, for all his toadiness, is a really good debater. He definitely beat Tim Kaine in the VP debate in 2016. Oh, I agree. But he'll be having to dig the ticket out of a much deeper hole than in 2016 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Rasmussen has Biden up 12. Just FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 23 minutes ago, Chataya de Fleury said: Pence, for all his toadiness, is a really good debater. He definitely beat Tim Kaine in the VP debate in 2016. To be fair, Kamala Harris is also a much better debater than Tim Kaine. I know the VP candidates matter more than anytime in living memory right now, but I still have a hard time imagining this debate mattering in any way. Harris is inherently gonna play it safe, which leaves it up to Pence to rock the boat. In that vein, I echo what Rakich said in the 538 slack chat: "But has Pence ever driven the news cycle?" –> No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Rasmussen has Biden up 12. Just FYI. Saw that, but my immediate reaction is this is their sandbagging period. They put Biden up 12 now to gain credibility, and then over the next few weeks there's a Trump surge to the point he's leading on the eve of the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Some of that is from what I believe the technical term is 'nonresponse bias' (i.e, Trumpies being too depressed to take polls) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 1 minute ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Some of that is from what I believe the technical term is 'nonresponse bias' (i.e, Trumpies being too depressed to take polls) Yeah 52-40 could very easily actually be 52-45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ran Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 The nonresponse thing had me wondering about that. I feel like an outcome of the election is that Trump supporters get so depressed -- by the odds stacking against them, by Trump's antics -- that they just can't bring themselves to take the time to actually vote. Which would have a deleterious effect down ballot, to say the least. Do any pollsters reveal data on nonresponse rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, DMC said: Saw that, but my immediate reaction is this is their sandbagging period. They put Biden up 12 now to gain credibility, and then over the next few weeks there's a Trump surge to the point he's leading on the eve of the election. I feel like Rasmussen operates the opposite way. They generally keep Republicans up all summer and early fall, and then in October they start mirroring other pollsters to maintain their credibility for the next election cycle. 8 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Some of that is from what I believe the technical term is 'nonresponse bias' (i.e, Trumpies being too depressed to take polls) Possible for sure. At least one of the polls yesterday though, Monmouth's PA one, included a generic D. vs. generic R question. And it was far closer than Biden vs. Trump. Which suggests that it's not nonresponse bias, but rather people who would vote generic R are voting Biden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 10 minutes ago, Ran said: The nonresponse thing had me wondering about that. I feel like an outcome of the election is that Trump supporters get so depressed -- by the odds stacking against them, by Trump's antics -- that they just can't bring themselves to take the time to actually vote. Which would have a deleterious effect down ballot, to say the least. Do any pollsters reveal data on nonresponse rates? I think pollsters do give data on nonresponse rates (Pew Research for instance has gone into this in some detail). Regarding correlation to actual voting, who knows? I think the root cause variable for everything we see (polls, voting etc.) is actually enthusiasm, so if anyone is keeping track of that, it may give us some insight into how turnout may occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 4 minutes ago, Fez said: I feel like Rasmussen operates the opposite way. They generally keep Republicans up all summer and early fall, and then in October they start mirroring other pollsters to maintain their credibility for the next election cycle. I dunno, I seem to recall them doing the sandbagging thing in multiple previous cycles, but I don't know for sure (maybe it's just my antipathy towards Rasmussen) - and don't really care to try and look it up. 4 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: so if anyone is keeping track of that, it may give us some insight into how turnout may occur. Gallup actually just came out with their enthusiasm numbers, and both parties are pretty standard in their enthusiasm. Perhaps a bit of a downturn for independents. Of course, the timeframe for their most recent poll was September 14-28: Quote Gallup's long-used "thought given to the election" question suggests that 2020 will be a fairly typical year in overall turnout (around 55%, where it was in 2012 and 2016) if Americans' level of election attention continues to increase over the next month, as it normally would. That is also assuming voters -- particularly Republicans, who as of now are far more likely than Democrats to plan on voting in person -- ultimately activate on their propensity to vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sologdin Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 the likes of the Proud Boys and Oath Keepers should start busting heads. *leathermen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted October 7, 2020 Share Posted October 7, 2020 Poor Senator Collins. She is frustrated by all the cash flooding the election. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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