US Politics: The Motorcade of Madness

[Durckad]

Carry on.

If you think my thread title sucks, kindly suggest a new one.

Also @Tywin et al. you need to get over your Amy K crush. There was no way McTurtle was going to confirm anyone Obama nominated during that time. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

As you were.

Ah fuck.  Feel free to delete, ninjaed.

This is the real school, not the book-reading school.

[Fez]

Here's the 11-dimensional hindsight chess: Obama nominates McConnell for the SCOTUS seat in an unprecedented show of bipartisanship. He does less damage there filling Scalia's seat then he does as majority leader the rest of the year. And then, without the incentive of filling that seat, Clinton  narrowly wins in 2016 (even with everything else happening as it did), carrying Katie McGinty and Russ Feingold across the finish line and getting the senate majority. Democrats then pack the court, end the filibuster, and make DC and PR states in 2017.

[argonak]

11 minutes ago, Fez said:

Here's the 11-dimensional hindsight chess: Obama nominates McConnell for the SCOTUS seat in an unprecedented show of bipartisanship. He does less damage there filling Scalia's seat then he does as majority leader the rest of the year. And then, without the incentive of filling that seat, Clinton  narrowly wins in 2016 (even with everything else happening as it did), carrying Katie McGinty and Russ Feingold across the finish line and getting the senate majority. Democrats then pack the court, end the filibuster, and make DC and PR states in 2017.

I really wanted to see Joe put Obama on the SC.

[ants]

Any updates on the Dem’s Senate chances?  Is Biden’s bigger polling lead translating to down ticket strength?

[Ran]

4 minutes ago, ants said:

Any updates on the Dem’s Senate chances?  Is Biden’s bigger polling lead translating to down ticket strength?

I saw something, somewhere, suggesting that the Democrats look to net seats right now, but can't find it. But yes, the Biden campaign is pulling along those down ballot.

Also, Monmouth came out with its PA poll. +8 or +11, depending on which model you use. Biden was +1 to +3 back in August, IIRC.

Nate Cohn noted that if the polls are as off on Biden as they were on Clinton in 2016 in the last weeks of the election, he'd still appear likely to win over 300 electoral votes, and the presidency, if the election was held today.

[IheartIheartTesla]

As of now, the most likely outcome is for Dems to lose Alabama, but pick up Maine, Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina. Iowa is a tossup. Hopefully they will defend Michigan.

[Fez]

. Was misreading something. Still, it's a real good poll.

[Zorral]

The balcony stunt is now being compared to Mussolini by many with alarm and digust, and  favorably by the rightwingnutrepubs.

Others remember the musical, Evita, which he saw 6 times.

https://www.vulture.com/2020/10/patti-lupone-compares-trumps-balcony-speech-to-evita-scene.html

 

 

 

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

As of now, the most likely outcome is for Dems to lose Alabama, but pick up Maine, Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina. Iowa is a tossup. Hopefully they will defend Michigan.

Michigan is the only even halfway shaky Dem seat though (outside AL), whereas the Republicans are defending a bunch of seats that ought to be safe, but aren't.  In more or less descending order, I would rate it as: Montana, South Carolina, Kansas, Georgia (Ossoff), Alaska.  In every one of those there has been at least one poll showing a tied/Dem lead.  And if Dems win even one of those, their Senate majority is virtually assured (since ME, AZ and CO look very safe).  Only NC worries me, since Cunningham is in the middle of a sexting scandal, and his polls have been the weakest of the four anyway. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Yeah, I forgot to put probably in front of NC. I am being bearish about the other senate races because I fear the partisan lean of those states would prove a bit too much to overcome. Georgia, South Carolina and Montana might be squeakers though.

Iowa is also a chance for a real pickup.

[Maithanet]

As someone who checks polling far more often than is healthy, I have developed a system of looking at polls:

Good (for Trump) polls - Head to head margin within 1% of the 2016 result, or better.

Mediocre (for Trump) polls - Head to head margin between 1-5% worse than the 2016 result.

Terrible (for Trump) - Head to head margin more than 5% worse than the 2016 result.

 

On the best days for Trump early in the campaign, it would be about an even mix of good and mediocre polls, with just a smattering of terrible results.  In the height of the George Floyd protests, it was almost entirely terrible polls, with only an occasional mediocre result.  In most of September, it was about 50/50 between mediocre and terrible results.  But these days, it is leaning more and more towards terrible, rather than merely mediocre. 

4 weeks till election day, although plenty of people have voted already. 

[Fez]

I'd probably rank the Democratic chances in the senate pick-up opportunities as:

Arizona

Colorado

Maine

North Carolina

Iowa

Alaska

Montana

South Carolina

Georgia (Ossoff)

Kansas

Georgia (Warnock)

Michigan (DEM held)

Texas

Alabama (DEM held)

 

It's hard to guess exactly how well Democrats do; though I think at least a net +4 looks likely. And if Biden really is up close to +16, there's a good chance Democrats net +9 from that list.

 

[Jaxom 1974]

Vote like you're down ten points in the polls, not up, they say. 

Vote like you want to beat a poll that's up by ten by having that margin be more like plus 15 when all is said and done. 

[Kalbear]

Even barring Republican fuckery, I think the biggest gotcha as far as polls vs. results is the mail ballots. There is a lot of room for chaos and unpredictability there. Especially in places like Penn, which are increasing the volume of mail ballots for the first time by a factor of TEN. 

This software engineer knows that launch day is going to suck serious ass for a lot of people. 

[IheartIheartTesla]

Meanwhile, top military people are quarantining and working from home (including Mark Milley). All from the Coast Guard guy testing positive.

Not sure how they run their meeting, but here at work we have cut down significantly on in-person meetings and have conference room chairs spread out (usual protocol is to run online meetings). I expect sloppiness from the WH, but is the military being more cautious or not?

[Fragile Bird]

I was just going to post about the generals having to self-isolate or quarantine. What a great look! More winning!

I was catching up on reading yesterday and I saw that when Trump called Fox last Thursday to talk about Hope Hicks he blamed the police or the military as being the ones who gave Hicks Covid-19. He said something like, “when they come up to you to talk to you because they’re such great supporters you can’t say no!”

[Fragile Bird]

Lol, the Dow just did a 500 point swing in 2 minutes because Trump tweeted he didn’t want stimulus negotiated until after the election. Up 150 points, now down 233, so a bit of a recovery.

Oops, now down about 300.

[Kalbear]

Some reasonable optimism for Kavanaugh deciding to be relatively lax on legal ballot challenges

Quote

 

That’s bad news for President Trump, as Republicans have filed several lawsuits seeking to block state laws making it easer to vote, including a Nevada law providing for vote by mail, and guaranteeing that many ballots that arrive up to three days after Election Day will still be counted.

To be clear, Kavanaugh’s opinion is hardly good news for voting rights advocates, as it makes it clear that Kavanaugh will do nothing to block many laws that disenfranchise voters during the pandemic. With Republicans about to gain a 6-3 majority on the Supreme Court — and with three justices taking an extreme anti-voting stance in Andino — voting rights advocates will likely need Kavanaugh and Roberts’s votes to prevail in any case that reaches the Supreme Court.

But Kavanaugh’s opinion does suggest that the Supreme Court is more likely to take a position of indifference towards voting rights during the November election, rather than actively trying to sabotage Democrats at every possible turn.

 

 

[Kalbear]

Just now, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, the Dow just did a 500 point swing in 2 minutes because Trump tweeted he didn’t want stimulus negotiated until after the election. Up 150 points, now down 233, so a bit of a recovery.

It is amazingly remarkable how stupid that is in my mind. Giving people money is usually a positive thing. Making people suffer when you're the incumbent is, well, not.