Mace Tyrell is a fool

[frenin]

6 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

The term "unprecedented" is commonly used to indicate something being unlikely.

Something being unlikely and something being impossible are two different things, there's always someone that creates a new precedent.

 

6 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Actually, he complains about how the prestigious families are NOT willing to marry into his. Tytos Lannister atypically doing so is held as a mark against him. Robb Stark only agrees because Walder won't let him cross to fight the Lannisters otherwise, and Edmure has to be ordered by Robb against his will.

His blood is married into the Royces or are you only meaning not great houses?? 

 

 

6 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I'm arguing that it makes more sense if they do know so that any potential kids of that betrothal are removed as potential heirs along with Joffrey & Tommen.

But you're arguing that because you believe that their only purpose is getting the throne. Which it may not be, especially if they do not believe it possible, in such circumstances, setting Marg up to queenship is a fair deal for the Tyrells.

 

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Within Westeros, those were polygamous First Men kings. The Faith of the Seven has its own marriage customs.

And we see people asking kings to set aside marriages.

Daemon asked his brother to do so, Viserys answer was that he didn't want to not that he could not.

 

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The fact that it was never good in the first place means the state of things at the end of Robert's reign isn't that different. Robert never removed Stannis from his Small Council, nor did he assign Dragonstone to someone else. Stannis was his eldest brother, and that was sufficient to make him heir. Ned notes this on Robert's death, leaving LF to suggest supporting Joffrey even if they know he's a bastard, with the option of replacing him with Renly later. Renly himself acknowledges to Catelyn before preparing to battle (and kill) Stannis that he's the lawful heir "While he lives".

Why would he?? None of that makes him his heir anymore and he actually needs Stannis around,  Stannis was his eldest brother 15 years ago, when his only offspring was a bastard little girl from the Vale, Stannis was quite literally the only option available, this isn't so true 15 years later. Stannis was made heir presumptive, meaning he wasn't heir anymore. Yet 15 years before Robert made a gesture to name him heir presumptive and years later he would rather have Jaime as Warden of the East than Stannis. Dragonstone was mere lordship after Cersei's kids were born, why would Robert take it from him?? Stannis is lord, not prince.

And ofc Stannis is Robert's heir, Robert died believing his illegitimate children were his, that makes Stannis's heir by default and Ned already had already decided who was going to be his heir when he decided not to tell Robert the truth. Robert never had a proper say on his will because he never got to know the truth.

Had Robb died before fixing his will so Sansa couldn't inherit, Sansa would have been his heir by default on his loyalist's eyes, regardless on whether Robb wanted it or not.

 

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Does Robert even remember that Edric exists at any time other than when Varys relays the thanks for gifts Varys attributes to Robert? Robert at least relies on Stannis, even if he doesn't like him.

He doesn't care, but he didn't care either for his trueborn children (there's legit not a sibgle interaction between him and Myrce or Tommen) and he relied on Stannis, that doesn't mean he wants Stannis to inherit before them. One of the advantages  of acknowledged bastards are this.

Bear in mind that this isn't me saying that Robert def was going to do it but that he could have and that no one knows what could have happened through his head. Saying that Stannis stood to benefit the most is simply having priviledged info from Martin.

 

 

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Unlike Stannis, who fled the capital after the death of Jon Arryn, Renly doesn't act frightened at all until Robert dies. And he could have potentially found anyone to be Robert's new wife. Using his own logic, he should have sought out someone who resembles Lyanna as Robert would remember her... but Margaery isn't that. Instead she's the only sister of Renly's boyfriend, whom Renly himself goes on to marry.

1. Stannis doesn't flee the capital, nor does he ever act frightened, the only reason he leaves the capital is because he is not named Hand of the King and he's waiting for Robert (and Renly) to die.
2. Well, for one we only see Renly in public and he is not going to show panic for obvious reasons. Two, Renly (unlike Stannis) doesn't know about the impending doom so he has no reason to fear for his inmediate life,  the moment Robert dies the man is panicking over the idea of Cersei and the Lannisters taking over...
3. I mean, Margaery is the best possible bride.
4. He doesn't know how Lyanna looks like, which is why he asks Ned, what he does know is that Margaery's family are rich and powerful enough to replace the Lannisters... which leads us to
5. That's the reason why he marries her.

 

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He never actually fought Joffrey at all.

 By naming himself king, he's declaring war to Joffrey, ie fighting him.

 

 

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I agree that its truth doesn't matter to RENLY one bit, as I'm arguing Renly knew it was true and refuses to accept Stannis' claim anyway! But Catelyn obviously disagrees and thinks a Great Council of Lords should hash out the claims. Renly gives no credence to that idea, instead figuring he can end Stannis' claim by killing him in battle.

It doesn't matter to anyone one bit. Which is why Stannis has the men he has prior Renly's death and why he has the men he has after the Blackwater. No one was rushing to him after the birds were sent, no one cared about his "truth".

Cat doesn't disagree, obviously or otherwise, Cat simply doesn't want the brothers to fight while the Lannisters are on the field because she saw them as potential allies. She's simply giving an option that she believe could potentially calm both brothers and it calms neither. Had the Baratheon bros been fighting after the Lannisters were dead Cat would have looked at them once, turned around and left.

The Lords of the Trident were content enough to throw his lot with Renly and even when Robb doesn't like the idea, he never considers the idea of bending the knee to Stannis even after the rumour of the twincest is out, Doran allies with the Lannisters, Lysa doesn't care and the Stormlords and Reach lords had already pledged their swords to Renly.

How indifference counts as support?

 

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Ned didn't ask whether Stannis was making a bid for the throne when he said the incest made Stannis heir. Renly himself acknowledges that simply follows from it while Stannis lives.

Yes, Ned was planning on making Stannis king. It is a bit irrelevant because Ned died and what transpired in the Red Keep didn't get out, no one knew about the incest.

I'll ask you again. 

What's better. Whether usurping three legitimate candidates or whether usurping only one heavily disliked candidate??

Stannis was never going to get support to his bid to the throne, Joffrey was supported by the Crownlands and Tywin... Who do you think needed to be discredited? The one with  zero support or the one with 60k swords behind him?

 

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but here I'll make an additional point: Renly & Stannis could get rid of Cersei together if they didn't waste time fighting each other (and Stannis besieging Storm's End for Edric). 

True but the only reason there was a fight was because Stannis forced it, Stannis was the one going to Storm's End to see Renly dead.

 

 

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Renly won't go along with that, even opportunistically (assuming, as others argue, that he believes Joffrey is legitimate), because he wants to be king instead of Stannis.

Come on, and Stannis can't go along with Renly even opportunistically (he's the guy with the 100k army), doesn't sound biased at all. Renly does not need Stannis's help to destroy the Lannisters, he and his army can do it quite well. Stannis is the one who needs Renly or more specifically his army, and he's the one set on having it one way or the other.

Stannis is the one besieging Storm's End to get Renly killed and leaving no room but to fight, he's the one saying, kneel or i'll destroy you.

 

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Wrong, Tywin explicitly cites Stannis spreading his "disgusting slander" as a reason to get Cersei married as soon as possible. And that's even after he lost at the Blackwater! And while Tyrion argues that trying to suppress the talk of incest would backfire (perhaps partly because he likes seeing her angry reaction to such talk), he inwardly admits that LF's plan of fighting fire with fire has promise.

Fair enough, none of the candidates that would have gone for Stannis cared for the twincest or made the twincest a factor. This goes even after the purple wedding happens.

 

 

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You didn't cite an example, nor does the link ever use the word "easily".

I've passed you a link where it explains it, haven't you read it?

 

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Tywin reacted to Tyrion's arrest by raiding the Riverlands while Robert was alive (albeit via vassals who weren't flying banners to identify them).

I would not say that sending raiders in the night without banners especifically so you can't be hanged for treason  is the most daring defiance in history, there's a good difference between that and what you propose.

 

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And when Robert heard about Lannisters reacting to news of said arrest with violence (here it was Jaime ordering Ned & his men to be attacked in the street), his order was to release Tyrion.

Is that so?? We are never told that "Lannisters reacting to news of said arrest with violence" was the driving force behind his decision.

Fact is that Robert considered a kidnapping (which it kinda was), Cersei had no power to "arrest him", so far Robert could tell he was innocent of whatever he was accused,  and he is Robert's brother in law. Everyone of those reasons should warrant the order he gives wothout him fearing the Lannister wrath...

 

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 Everyone knows Tywin reacts violently to perceived slights to his house, and Robert tries to avoid political conflict. Tywin has a quite defensible seat in Casterly Rock, so even if Robert tried he would have a hard time destroying Tywin quickly. Is Robert going to do that for a woman when he already goes through them at an easy clip?

Everyone knows that Tywin is a lot of things but not an idiot,  which is why he put up with Aerys slight to his house, to him, to his wife... for a decade.  Better that to start a war you cannot win and be decimated. Robert may or may not destroy Tywin quickly but it's a matter of "when" not "if".

When asked whether the raiders who attacked the Riverlands wore Tywin's color the answer is obvious. 

“Even Lannisters are not so blind stupid as that,”

Is Tywin going to start a war he cannot win and that would end him and his nearest relatives over such slight? I can't tell whether Robert would or wouldn't, Tywin has never stricken me of a suicidal type, so he def wouldn't. 

 

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It's a slight to his house, and he wouldn't trust any new bride & her family.

So why didn't he rebel the first 50 times Aerys slighted his house? I would agree if we were talking about show Tywin but staring wars one cannot win is not his style.

It's likelier that he would have had Robert killed via assasin tho, but he would not have risked his house over that.

 

 

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It says he lacks affection and is distant from her. That's not the same thing as "loathing" her.

If you say so.

 

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A shadow did that while Stannis slept, Stannis was expecting him to attack in the morning. And he'd offered to make Renly his heir and confirm him as lord of Storm's End prior to that in order to avoid battle and killing him.

And a shadow killed Penrose while Stannis slept.  That shadow was casted by Stannis and ordered by Stannis. And Stannis dreams about places an events that he could only have known if he actually was there killing Renly.

Come on now, even Davos can tell Stannis's story is sketchy and he's Stannis's biggest cheerleader, he expected him to attack in the morning yet was sleeping while everyone else was already armored?? Either he was lying through his teeth or he was on clear denial.

Stannis was told that Renly died and how he'd do it, in fact Cressen calls the act "fratricide" right away. He's told that the only way to get Renly's army is with him dead and soon enough Renly's dead.

And Renly offered him Storm's End in addition to Dragonstone (how could Stannis confirm him over a seat he has hold for 13 years?), yet neither of them were going to agree and Stannis knew he wouldn't win without magic so he killed Renly via shadowbaby.

 

6 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

He swore he would not treat with his younger brother while the latter still called himself a king... but he did it anyway. Because he wanted to avoid killing him.

So noble of him, it would have been more noble had we have not not known that his only reason to be in Storm's End in the first was to see Renly dead and take his army.

Stannis would not have gotten Renly killed if he gotten his fealty but if he had to choose between seeing Renly dead or watching that beautiful army of his to get away. We know the what he chose, it was quite clear since the prologue.

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

He might've been smitten right there, but soon the claws would come out. 

 

Melisandre says that she did not come across the narrow sea to seat another vain king on a throne. And we also hear that "Stannis is building ships,  Stannis is bringing a shadowbinder from Asshai"

Maybe, someday, but it's highly unlikely. What happened to Sansa happened for reasons that are specific to Sansa, none of which apply to Margaery. To say that Joffrey will beat Margaery just because he beat Sansa is just as silly as saying he is going to execute Mace just because he executed Ned. Joff just does not go around beating and killing people for no reason, and Margaery has already shown how easily she can manipulate him.

And if the claws do come out, someday, this will be long after Margaery has delivered an heir, or two, or three, to the throne. Then, regardless of whether he is a threat or not, they can off him in any number of ways that don't involve literally a thousand witnesses looking on, and then Margaery gets to be regent for the next decade or more. This is a far, far better outcome for the Tyrells than waiting five years for Tommen, during which time the "marriage" can be set aside at any time, for any reason, by Cersei, who will remain as regent rather than be shipped off to her next husband -- and in the end, all Margaery gets is the relatively powerless role of queen consort. So any way you look at it, Joffrey's death was a huge setback for House Tyrell, and it was done to avoid a problem that doesn't exist and probably won't for years. And in the final analysis, what's a few bruises and black eyes compared to the power of the Iron Throne? Plenty of queens have suffered far worse for their crowns.

 

So Stannis fled the capital after Jon Arryn's death, built a bunch of ships, travelled to Asshai on literally the other end of the world, found Melisandre, and brought her back to Dragonstone? Nah, much more likely that Mel, guided by her fire visions, wormed her way to his side, first through Axell, then Selyse.

[Jaenara Belarys]

I did not say that Stannis brought her himself. His men could've done it. And Varys says that Selyse has taken up with a red "priest". I don't know if it means much, but they generally differentiate between the two. 

[Universal Sword Donor]

2 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Maybe, someday, but it's highly unlikely. What happened to Sansa happened for reasons that are specific to Sansa, none of which apply to Margaery. To say that Joffrey will beat Margaery just because he beat Sansa is just as silly as saying he is going to execute Mace just because he executed Ned. Joff just does not go around beating and killing people for no reason, and Margaery has already shown how easily she can manipulate him.

Joff absolutely beats and kills people for no reason. In no particular order He:

• has Sansa beat because he's mad
• it's implied he use to beat Tommen
• kills Tommen's kitten because he could
• shot a crossbow at rabbits in the courtyard for hours
• Killed people asking for food
• Ordered people be killed for throwing shit at him

Just because Marg can easily manipulate doesn't mean she's safe from a violent psychopath. Just as Rhaella

[Jaenara Belarys]

8 minutes ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Joff absolutely beats and kills people for no reason. In no particular order He:

• has Sansa beat because he's mad
• it's implied he use to beat Tommen
• kills Tommen's kitten because he could
• shot a crossbow at rabbits in the courtyard for hours
• Killed people asking for food
• Ordered people be killed for throwing shit at him

Just because Marg can easily manipulate doesn't mean she's safe from a violent psychopath. Just as Rhaella

Thank you! Except he didn't kill Tommen's kitten, he killed Tommen's deer.

[Universal Sword Donor]

5 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Thank you! Except he didn't kill Tommen's kitten, he killed Tommen's deer.

Correct. I conflated the fawn and the time Joffrey cut open the pregnant cat. So it's actually ... twice as bad.

[Jaenara Belarys]

I forgot about that poor damned kitchen cat.

[John Suburbs]

14 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

She doesn't "discover" it, she'd already heard it and squeezes Sansa until she confirms it.

I don't think she expected LF to nab Sansa. Him being absent may have made her think he wouldn't be able to interfere like that.

Not "her happiness" but instead a "kingslayer stew". LF even suggests that Margaery herself may not want "her queenly crown and her maidenhead", both of which she'll keep while married to Tommen.

I hope that doesn't mean you're going to turn this into a ? + L = J thread.

Her family are the ones already at risk of the kingslayer stew. They're not doing this as a favor for LF, him providing the poison is a favor to them.

We didn't get to see their actual conversations.

Why would GRRM's "careful reader" ignore "all the facts"!!!!!!!????? It's fine if you want to argue a reveal could come out of nowhere in the future, but GRRM is characterizing the existing text in a completely different manner.

The page I linked to doesn't have GRRM discussing Tyrion at all. LF was the one arranging for conflict between him & Joffrey, not the Tyrells.

Why would it be more difficult to poison a huge chalice? A small object can be more easily hidden inside it, and it would fully dissolve in a larger quantity of wine.

Are you asking why GRRM would spend a lot of words on a feast rather than just tersely hitting the essential plot points?

He was joking, laughing while denying it was murder.

LF had nothing to do with that, the Tyrells did, and specifically because it helped rather than hurt their poisoning plot.

I have no idea what you're talking about, so yes you'll need to explain.

He comes across as a psychopath, which is precisely why Sansa is afraid for Margaery.

He kills smallfolk & Tommen's animals for fun. He orders men to fight to the death for fun. He sent a woman to the dungeons after she pled on behalf of her lover and enjoyed that, but gets bored with the actual work of doing justice. He launches debtors into the sea for fun. It's entirely consistent behavior for him to abuse people for fun. Tommen also has a powerful family, but he's scared of Joffrey.

He may not do publicly what he does privately.

Is Olenna going to rely on that happening before Loras kills him?

"She"? Again, Olenna doesn't have to do that herself. She has a taller, more athletic member of her family right there.

It was already explained to you that we know Garlan got out of his seat.

Is there any indication Stannis believes that? He sends Melisandre on a mission to deal with Cortnay Penrose, which suggests he figured out her magic was responsible.

How so?

It's not "no danger". If Joffrey does anything to Margaery then Loras is likely to kill him, and Olenna isn't taking that chance.

Tywin was expected to be in charge.

She's getting a confirmation before embarking on the actual assassination.

The connection is that Olenna fiddled with the hairnet and a stone went missing... just as LF said. He only knew because he was in cahoots with her.

LF had sought Sansa's hand in the first book. And by having Dontos spy on Sansa he's able to hear about & disrupt the Tyrell plot to marry her off. That's separate from the assassination scheme.

She comes across as a completely guile-less young girl.

I don't think one reference to the Florents having a better claim suffices for that.

He went apeshit and killed two of his comrades among the Rainbow Guards.

No, you are just using your own opinion as "any rational assessment". Sansa foresees that eventuality, and can't understand why the Tyrells don't. LF gives the kingslayer stew as a motive, confirming Sansa's suspicion. And in the link I've given GRRM says "She certainly had good reasons to remove Joffrey. Everything she’d heard about him, he was wildly unstable, and he was about to marry her beloved granddaughter. The Queen of Thorns had studied Joffrey well enough that she knew that at some point he would get bored with Margaery, and Margaery would be maltreated, the same way that Sansa had been. Whereas if she removed him then her granddaughter might still get the crown but without all of the danger."

How is Tyrion a "clear and present danger to [...] Highgarden"?

Ilyn doesn't just execute nobles on Joffrey's whim. There's a process for people to face judgement at all.

No, there are men who swear off any titles, marriages & inheritances. I would instead say "all lords" rather than "all men".

That's true, but not widely known.

Lady O doesn't need to "confirm" anything. She has multiple witnesses, including her own grandsons, who can tell her that they saw these things with their own eyes. plus she supposedly has Littlefinger's confession that he lied to begin with. There is no reason why she would need to confirm anything from a complete stranger like Sansa, whom she has absolutely no reason to trust.

Maybe she did know about Sansa's escape, maybe she didn't. But the fact remains that Lady Olenna would have to be dumber than a bag of rocks for her to trust the man whose lie got her into this fix in the first place, and maintain complete faith in him with this plan that has her risking practically her entire family while he is safe and sound somewhere far away.

There is no reason to think Margaery is any any danger from Joffrey whatsoever. Joffrey is completely smitten with her, and she has shown all the skills needed to manipulate him in all sorts of ways. It's Joffrey who should be afraid of Margaery.

I'm just pointing out the fallacy of your argument. If the app says wine and this is proof of the wine, then if the app says Jon is Ned's bastard then that must be proof of that truth as well.

Almost all the Tyrells will be gone within a fortnight after the wedding, Lady O back to Highgarden, Garlan and Mace off to war. The only ones left will be Margaery and Loras, and Margaery has all the means necessary to keep Loras at bay until she bears the heir to the throne. Surely, Loras can see the sense in trading a few bruises for unlimited power over the entire realm.

So in your mind, Littlefinger negotiated this betrothal with blustering Mace, not Lady Olenna, and told them all up front the Joffrey was a mad little monkey and would beat Margaery to a pulp, and Mace just went ahead anyway because he doesn't care one whit about his daughter and doesn't even comprehend that without her his alliance goes up in smoke? LF lied about Joffrey, and Lady O knows that he's lying but he could not be expected to do anything else since he is representing the crown. And nothing that Joffrey has done makes him a danger to Margaery; in fact, it makes him the ideal piece because he can be so easily manipulated and they don't even have to suffer his existence for very long.

Lol, I assume you consider yourself a careful reader and yet you are ignoring all the facts. This is how Martin often does it, "the conclusion the careful reader draws . . ." And here is the full quote if you would care to read it carefully:

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In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

Did you carefully read the part where he makes no promises for the books? And how on earth is anyone going to spot a tiny missing crystal on a hairnet and connect that to a dead king on the floor? And since the hairnet leads directly back to Lady Olenna, this idea is absurd to begin with.

The whole plan is supposed to hinge on Joffrey dying and Tyrion being accused of his murder. So the contradictions are: how could they expect the dwarf joust to result in Tyrion pouring Joffrey's wine?; why would they use a poison that is supposed to seem like choking if they intend to frame someone for murder?; why would they intentionally give a giant chalice to make poisoning more difficult and risk Margaery as well? . . . I could go on and on because the contradictions are endless.

As I explained, the rim of the chalice is now three feet above the table rather than a few inches. It is also a golden, bejeweled spectacle that draws the eye like a giant fishing lure. It will also undoubtedly be shared by both Joffrey and Margaery at this moment in the feast when toasts are inevitable. And according to some wine theorists, the greater quantity of wine can only serve to weaken the poison, perhaps to the point that it won't kick in for minutes, or hours or maybe never. The difficulty has nothing to do with the size of the poison, but getting the poison into the chalice and then making sure that Joffrey and only Joffrey drinks it.

No, I'm asking why Martin would add this completely superfluous, unnecessary and extraneous half-page of text? And careful reader that you are, you would see that this included the bit about the pie being dry and "It's kof the pie, kof, noth, pie." I don't know if you're familiar with the publishing industry, but a half-page worth of ink and paper can push costs up by thousands on a million-copy print run, and this book is already nearly twice as long as the other two. So the only way this should have made it through is if there was a reason for it, which will be revealed later, just like all that seemingly meaningless talk about Sweetrobin's fostering.

Joking or not, Dontos would not even mention the pie if the plan was to poison the wine. He would say choked on wine (which is impossible), oh tasty, tasty wine . . ."

Again, I ask you to stand a ruler and a yardstick straight up on your kitchen table and tell me which one is easier to put your finger on? The chalice is many, many times more challenging for the reasons I stated. To ignore this simple fact is just grasping at straws to maintain your head canon.

Sansa is afraid for Margaery, but Margaery is not afraid for herself and neither is Lady "that's a pity" Olenna. There is absolutely no evidence, zero, that Margaery is in any danger, nor that she or Margery or anyone else but Sansa thinks she is. Sansa is naive and does not comprehend what's going on around her, as usual. It's actually why her chapters are so interesting; you have to delve really deep into the subtext to get to the real truth.

Yes, Joffrey does all of these things to people that give him reasons to do so. The cat was when he was what, eight? Has he been slaughtering animals left and right since then, laughing with glee? I doubt anyone knows what happened between him and Tommen, so that is not an issue. The antler men were traitors who were going to open the gates to Stannis who was then going to cut not just Joffrey's head off, but Cersei's, Tyrion's, Tommen's and any other Lannister he could find. Nobody batted an eye when Ned chopped off the head of a NW deserter. This is what happens to traitors. There has been no "fighting to the death" in King's Landing. This is just teen-boy bluster, and it's probably fairly effective because no one is going to risk death over a mill or a dam so they are likely to work these problems out between themselves rather than bring them to Joffrey. And as I've already pointed out, none of this applies to Margaery. She is more than capable to staying on his good side long enough to bear his son, after which Joff is expendable.

Public or private, Joff is not going to beat Margaery. Not only will he run afoul of his Tyrell allies, the only thing keeping him on the throne, but he will also get a right good smashing from Uncle Jaime and Grandpa Tywin. Margaery is in absolutely no danger. Joffrey adores her.

If Lady Olenna is even the slightest bit worried about what Loras will do, she and Margaery will sit down and have a good talk with him. Loras is not an idiot. Rash, maybe, but not an idiot. There will be no blood spilling in the streets because Joffrey is not going to beat Margaery, and Loras is not going to loose his marbles like he did with Renly. That was a completely different situation.

Everybody stood as the pie was being wheeled in and remained standing for the ceremony, at their seats. Garlan did not suddenly switch places with Tyrion. That would be ridiculous, and would be seen as highly suspicious afterward. Even if he was right next to Sansa, you're talking about within the span of a second he has to go from arms at his side to reaching up to the chalice, three feet above the table and an arm's length in, then back down, all without not a single one of the thousands who can see the chalice sitting in plain sight seeing the sudden, rapid movement, least of all Sansa who is standing right there. Plus, we now have to reject Garlan as the noble, honorable, brave knight that he appears to be because he is actually a sniveling, dishonorable coward who uses poison, a weapon for women, cowards and eunuchs, to kill not only his king, making him a you-know-what, but also a skinny, weakling boy untrained in even the most rudimentary weapons skills. So once again, this wine theory just produces conflict after conflict after conflict with the text.

The relevant pieces of the Stannis-Davos conversation:

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"I dream of it sometimes. Of Renly dying. A green tent, candles, a woman screaming. And blood." Stannis looked down at his hands. "I was still abed when he died. Your Devan will tell you. He tried to wake me. Dawn was nigh and my lords were waiting, fretting. I should have been ahorse, armored. I knew Renly would attack at break of day. Devan says I thrashed and cried out, but what does it matter? It was a dream. I was in my tent when Renly died, and when I woke my hands were clean."

And before that, at the parley:

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"Enough," Stannis said. "The Lord of Light willed that my brother die for his treason. Who did the deed matters not."

And then finally, his instructions to Davos:

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"Stubborn or craven, what does it matter? Ser Cortnay Penrose seemed hale and hearty to me."

"So did my brother, the day before his death. The night is dark and full of terrors, Davos."

"My lord, I do not understand you."

"I do not require your understanding. Only your service. Ser Cortnay will be dead within the day. Melisandre has seen it in the flames of the future. His death and the manner of it. He will not die in knightly combat, needless to say. Her flames do not lie. She saw Renly's doom as well. On Dragonstone she saw it, and told Selyse. Lord Velaryon and your friend Salladhor Saan would have had me sail against Joffrey, but Melisandre told me that if I went to Storm's End, I would win the best part of my brother's power, and she was right."

. . .

"I . . . I am yours to command. What would you have me do?"

"Nothing you have not done before. Only land a boat beneath the castle, unseen, in the black of night. Can you do that?"

"Yes. Tonight?"

The king gave a curt nod. "You will need a small boat. Not Black Betha. No one must know what you do."

So is Stannis rationalizing here? Big time. But in his mind this is all being done by the will of the LoL. He does not know what Mel is up to, nor does he care because "who did the deed matters not." His hands are clean.

And if you'll note, this is the exact same attitude that Renly had adopted toward Stannis. Loras or one of the other knights was going to kill Stannis on the battlefield. Renly would be innocent as a little lamb.

 

As I explained, Joffrey should fear Margaery because once he has fathered a son the Tyrells don't need him anymore. At that point, they gain far more from his death than his life. He is expendable. At the wedding they still need him, so he is safe.

Again, this idea of Loras killing Joffrey is absurd. They can easily circumvent that by simply telling him to keep his cool. You don't think Loras will obey his grandmother, the Queen of Thorns? She's really that utterly helpless in all this? Can't you tell that LF is simply lying to Sansa in order to maintain his hold over her? It's the kind of thing that makes sense to a naive 13yo girl, but completely falls apart with just a modicum of scrutiny. Joffrey is not going to harm Margaery, and Loras is not going to kill Joffrey.

Yes, Tywin is in charge, but he will be off to war in a few weeks and then will likely return to Casterly Rock. Jaime will be there, Lord Commander of the Kingsguard and likely regent for the next several years. Jaime is not going to allow Joffrey to beat up Margaery. It's just not going to happen.

Yes, LF knows Olenna fiddled with the hairnet. That was the plan. In no way does this imply that she was then going to poison the wine, and the LF never says this. She was going to put it in Tyrion's pie, which she can easily do all by herself and which was all but guaranteed to be eaten by Tyrion and no one else.

And just because the hairnet was delivered after the battle doesn't mean all the details of this plan have been worked out. Remember his line about "putting the pieces in place?" The hairnet was a piece. He knows at this point that he needs to keep the poison in a safe place where he can be sure that Sansa, the poison and the eventual poisoner and target are in the same place at the same time, and this will most likely be at the wedding. But it is just as huge a leap in logic to assume that he had Olenna all lined up as the poisoner back then as it is to say they were in cahoots way back when he first made contact with Sansa to meet in the godswood when this plan really started. And again, I'll point out that if LO is already on board with this plan to kill Joffrey, then there is really no need to "confirm" anything with Sansa at the dinner because LO has already determined that Joffrey is a menace and she is planning to kill him. Conflicts, conflicts and more conflicts.

No, disrupting the Willas plot had direct bearing on the assassination scheme. Now, instead of just killing Joffrey and making off with maiden Sansa free and clear, he has to kill Joffrey, somehow maneuver Tyrion into framing himself for it, and then snatch a now-married, no-longer-a-maid Sansa. He intentionally turned a simple plan into a convoluted one that requires the two targets to behave exactly as he wants them to at multiple points in order to make it all work in the end. And he did this despite the fact that the Willas plan was not going to happen until after the wedding, after he had already taken Sansa. So, yes, he had to make sure that Sansa wore the hairnet, and she was wavering, but that could have easily been overcome in exactly the way Dontos was doing it: sowing distrust for the Tyrell's motives, which she already has because they are "pretending" not to be concerned about Joffrey. By ratting out the Willas plan, he nearly scotched his own.

Seen through the lens of the pie, however, it all makes perfect sense. The plan to kill Tyrion has no bearing on the original lie about Joffrey, nor does it require him to once again double-cross Lady Olenna. But it does create the situation in which her motivation to kill Tyrion is just as strong as his. Now there is a level of trust between them because they are both desirous of the same thing and she doesn't have to swallow some nonsense about LF committing regicide just to help Margaery out of the jam that he himself put her into.

Yes, Sansa comes across as completely guileless. And the first time anyone meets Cersei they are dazzled by her grace and beauty. People are not always what they seem, especially at court, and Lady O is supremely aware of this because she is not really the daft old grandma that she pretends to be. But I'll explain all of this in another post because it's rather involved.

The Florents are an ancient house that dates back to Garth Greenhand. They have been intermarrying with the ruling family for literally centuries. They have a better claim than a bunch of upjumped stewards.

Yes, Loras killed three men when he ran into the tent and saw his king and lover lying in a pool of blood. This is a far cry from a black eye and a bloody lip that he can be told well in advance to expect and not to overreact to.

Again, Martin leading you to believe one thing when in reality he says nothing definite. And I believe that quote was in reference to the show anyway, which cannot even remotely explain the book that Martin also says he "makes no promises for." And no, Sansa does not "perceive" anything. She doesn't even perceive how utterly impossible her Alayne cover story is right from the start. Like I said, this is the kind of thing that can dupe a young girl, but it falls apart with just the slightest critical thought. Joffrey has given no reason for anybody to even slightly suspect he is upset with Margaery. And waiting until he does so actually benefits the Tyrells because it allows them time to get Margaery a real crown, with full dictatorial powers, not just a queen consort's crown. And this can all happen in half the time it takes to secure her marriage to Tommen. Surely, a few bumps and bruises is well worth the awesome power of the Iron Thone. These are the facts, and again to deny them would require us to believe Lady Olenna's daft old grandma routine is real and that she hasn't the slightest clue how to play the Game of Thrones.

I will explain the danger Tyrion poses to House Tyrell in another post, because it is also quite involved.

Joffrey said "bring me his head" and Illyn did so. That was the process. He did this to Ned, so obviously he's going to do this to Mace, just for fun. That's how this works, right?

Even crofters want sons. Sons produce while daughters consume.

Uh, everybody knows Catelyn Stark is Ned's Stark's wife, and everybody knows that Ned claimed Joffrey was not the true king, and by default neither was Tommen. That means Stannis is king.

 

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

I have no idea what you're talking about, so yes you'll need to explain.

The mistake you're making is that you assume that Lady O knows Sansa as closely as we do. But this is clearly not the case. She has never met Sansa, never met her father, mother, brothers, sister. The only Stark Lady O knew was Rickard many years ago, and not very well.

There is also no direct contact between Highgarden and Winterfell. They don't meet up for harvest balls, they don't go hunting or hawking or sailing together . . . Their castles are a thousand leagues apart. At best, Mace met Ned and Brandon and Lyanna at Harrenhal, most likely, and then Ned again at Lannisport after the Greyjoy Rebellion, but none of the Tyrells have ever met Sansa, nor is it likely that they've ever met anyone who's ever met her. At best, all they know about her is whatever official pronouncements came out of Winterfell over the year about name days and such, or possibly second-, third-, or fourth-hand information from a Royce and maybe a Blackwood.

Suddenly, however, Sansa is tapped to become queen, and she arrives at court where she is presented as the pretty, polite, dutiful daughter of Lord Eddard Stark, all full of practiced courtesies and shadowed by her septa wherever she goes. But like I said, Lady Olenna is the first to know that the persona presented at court is not necessarily the real person -- in fact it rarely is. Now, Lady O is also thinking of making Sansa the next Lady of Highgarden. This is an important position that has the potential to do great good or great harm to House Tyrell. So before she commits, Lady O has to find out a few things about Sansa, not from other people, not from rumors or reports, but a real, candid, first-hand assessment of her character.

By asking Sansa these difficult questions about Joffrey, to which she already knows the answers, Lady O is attempting to get past the pretense, if there is any, and see for herself who is the real Sansa Stark. She is in fact using one of the oldest rhetorical tricks in the book: get the other person angry or upset or afraid or into some other emotional state so their their emotional brain takes over their rational brain and the true person is exposed. Tyrion does the same thing with Aegon, and Oberyn does the same thing with Tyrion.

In this way, Lady can see first hand:

• Is she a good liar? No, she's terrible, but that's not a bad thing
• Is she smart? Not particularly, but again, that's not a bad thing
• Is she brave? Yes, she told the truth despite being frightened, and remember, this is the only time you can be brave.
• Does she have a good heart? Yes, she alerted a complete stranger to danger despite putting herself at risk.

She can also see that Sansa is not a conniver, not a schemer, not a gold-digger, or a tramp. She can see all of these things for herself and now she can confidently offer Willas' hand to her, which she does.

That's what this conversation was really about. She already knows the truth about Joffrey.

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

How is Tyrion a "clear and present danger to [...] Highgarden"?

To understand this part of it, you have to look back over the long history of Highgarden, first under the Gardeners then the Tyrells.

Have you ever wondered why the Riverlands has been the scene of so many rising and falling petty kings, invasions and warfare? The Riverlands at least have rivers to offer it some means of natural protection, like the deserts do for Dorne and the mountains for the Vale. The Reach has only one main river and the rest is just league upon league of open farmland and gently rolling hills, terrain that should be ripe for constant invasion and conquest.

The reason is that the Gardeners were the first organize themselves into a kingdom and then leverage the only advantage they had: their population. The Reach is by far the most populated realm, and as such it has the ability to field the largest army, and navy -- easily doubling or even tripling the levies of any other kingdom. But this advantage can only be applied if there is political stability among the Reach houses, and the best way to maintain that stability is through marriage.

This is why first the Gardeners then the Tyrells made it a point to maintain solid marriage ties with all the principal houses, but the Redwynes and Hightowers in particular. They are, in fact, one large extended family. Lady Olenna is a Redwyne, Allerie is a Hightower, and so on.

This is also why all the other kingdoms entered the Reach rarely, and with caution. They will swallow up your army before you get anywhere near Highgarden. And if you'll note, the only time Highgarden has ever fallen is when the Gardener king at the time made a series of unwise marriages, which led to conflict among the banners, and the Reach was invaded simultaneously by the westerlands, stormlands and Dorne, with the Dornish sacking Highgarden and destroying the Oakenseat. Every single highborn in the Reach would know this story and its implications.

Now, all the other kings married into their banners as well, in order to maintain their own political stability, but as long as the Reach remained the most populous their status as top dog was secure. Suddenly, however, in the run-up to Robert's Rebellion, all this began to change. Instead of Starks marrying Locks or even Royce's, you had Starks marrying Tullys and Baratheons, Lannisters talking marriage with Tullys and (horror of horrors) Martells. Now there is the very real possibility that these houses could unite to form a power bloc that could challenge not just the might of the Iron Throne but Highgarden as well. This is why the Tyrells supported Aerys, not through any sense of loyalty but because they had as much to fear from a Stark-Tully-Arryn-Baratheon-Lannister alliance as he did.

Of course it didn't work out exactly as it appeared at the outset, but when the fighting was done you still had the Starks, Tullys and Arryns all married to one another. But the big setback for the Tyrells was Robert's marriage to Cersei. In one stroke, Tywin expanded his reach beyond the westerlands to ensnare the crownlands, stormlands and the Iron Throne itself. And I don't think I need to tell you that Tywin Lannister is no ordinary lord. He is the most ruthless warlord to come along in a generation, utterly without mercy, has no problem exterminating any house who dares defy him (exterminating, for all time, not just defeating and then raising up again like most lords do), nor does he have any compunction about feigning his friendship, getting inside your cities, then sacking them and slaughtering smallfolk by the tens of thousands. When he invades your lands he doesn't just fight battles and then win or lose on the field of honor, he burns the countryside from horizon to horizon, demolishing every town, village, holdfast and castle he comes across and leaves body upon body upon body dead where they fell to rot and become a feast for crows.

At the moment, however, Tywin is still too weak the challenge Highgarden even with his recent acquisitions. But now let's flash forward to the present to see that he now has taken over the Riverland (after burning it to the ground), and is now poised to seat his sister in the ruling chair, and with Tyrion's marriage to Sansa is ready to do the same thing in the North. Now, Tywin controls well more than half the kingdom, in the exact same way that the Tyrells maintain control in the Reach, and can easily raise levies that could dwarf the Tyrells unless they do exactly as they are told, forever after. And we should also note that the Reach and the westerlands share a thousand-league, ill-defined border that is ripe for conflict over mills, dams, hunting grounds etc., just like we saw in the Sworn Sword and what Jaime is dealing with in the Riverlands. Piece by piece, Tywin will be able to winkle the Reach away from the Tyrells through his control of the crown, and if the Tyrells rebel he'll serve them with fire and blood.

This is what keeps Lady Olenna up at night. Not Margaery getting a few knocks from Joffrey. That's kid stuff. But the Reach on fire, tens of thousands of dead, Highgarden razed to the ground, every last Tyrell, all she holds near and dear, dead, her line extinguished, for all time  . . . This is what she will commit murder to prevent. This is why Tyrion had to go, and this was the only opportunity she would have to get him.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Universal Sword Donor said:

Joff absolutely beats and kills people for no reason. In no particular order He:

• has Sansa beat because he's mad
• it's implied he use to beat Tommen
• kills Tommen's kitten because he could
• shot a crossbow at rabbits in the courtyard for hours
• Killed people asking for food
• Ordered people be killed for throwing shit at him

Just because Marg can easily manipulate doesn't mean she's safe from a violent psychopath. Just as Rhaella

No, he did not beat Sansa because he's mad. He beat her because she is his hostage and her brother is rebelling against the crown and winning, killing Lannisters on Lannister soil. Read:

Quote

"Kneeling won't save you now. Stand up. You're here to answer for your brother's crimes."

He may have molested Tommen, but there is no suggestion that he beat him. And nobody knows about this, except probably Cersei, and maybe Varys, but he would have no reason to whisper this to anyone, especially a Tyrell.

He killed the kitchen cat because he was curious. And he was all of what, eight? Has he killed any cats since?

Who cares about rabbits? They're vermin, they get into gardens and eat vegetables. And they are good eatin' themselves. This is a feudal society where animals are killed every day for food, furs, elixirs and all other reasons. Stop pretending they're all a bunch of Park Avenue socialites.

They were attempting to storm the keep. Ned executed a man just because he was scared.

He's the king. Throw shit at the king and see what happens. I wonder what Lady Olenna would do if someone threw shit on Margaery?

None of this has anything to do with Margaery, and Joffrey doesn't just go around beating up highborn maidens at random. What happened to Sansa happened for reasons that are unique to Sansa. If you read carefully, you'll see that Joffrey is over the moon for Margaery, tickled pink to be marrying her rather than dreary mopey Sansa. It will be long, long years before Margaery has to worry about a cross word from Joffrey, let alone a beating. And by then she will be mother to the next king and they can get rid of Joffrey any time so that Margaery becomes regent, with all the powers of the crown at her disposal. Joffrey's death was a huge setback for the Tyrells, and there is no way they would want to take such a valuable, malleable piece off the board right now.

 

[Universal Sword Donor]

1 minute ago, John Suburbs said:

No, he did not beat Sansa because he's mad. He beat her because she is his hostage and her brother is rebelling against the crown and winning, killing Lannisters on Lannister soil. Read:

He may have molested Tommen, but there is no suggestion that he beat him. And nobody knows about this, except probably Cersei, and maybe Varys, but he would have no reason to whisper this to anyone, especially a Tyrell.

He killed the kitchen cat because he was curious. And he was all of what, eight? Has he killed any cats since?

Who cares about rabbits? They're vermin, they get into gardens and eat vegetables. And they are good eatin' themselves. This is a feudal society where animals are killed every day for food, furs, elixirs and all other reasons. Stop pretending they're all a bunch of Park Avenue socialites.

They were attempting to storm the keep. Ned executed a man just because he was scared.

He's the king. Throw shit at the king and see what happens. I wonder what Lady Olenna would do if someone threw shit on Margaery?

None of this has anything to do with Margaery, and Joffrey doesn't just go around beating up highborn maidens at random. What happened to Sansa happened for reasons that are unique to Sansa. If you read carefully, you'll see that Joffrey is over the moon for Margaery, tickled pink to be marrying her rather than dreary mopey Sansa. It will be long, long years before Margaery has to worry about a cross word from Joffrey, let alone a beating. And by then she will be mother to the next king and they can get rid of Joffrey any time so that Margaery becomes regent, with all the powers of the crown at her disposal. Joffrey's death was a huge setback for the Tyrells, and there is no way they would want to take such a valuable, malleable piece off the board right now.

This is certainly a take. I'd think a king would be angry from treason though. I get mad when people commit treason

[Jaenara Belarys]

29 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

offrey's death was a huge setback for the Tyrells, and there is no way they would want to take such a valuable, malleable piece off the board right now.

This is untrue. Like LF said, they needed a king for Margaery to be a queen, but they did not need Joffrey. Plus, the Tyrells don't want Margaery to be beaten up, so bim, you kill Joffrey and marry her to Tommen who is guarenteed to not beat up Margaery.

 

29 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

He's the king. Throw shit at the king and see what happens. I wonder what Lady Olenna would do if someone threw shit on Margaery?

She wouldn't order the whole crowd killed because of one person, I think that's obvious.

[FictionIsntReal]

23 hours ago, frenin said:

Daemon asked his brother to do so

Daemon had no children and lived apart from his wife, so claiming he hadn't consummated the marriage so it could be annulled would not be a facially obvious lie.

he would rather have Jaime as Warden of the East than Stannis

Robert dislikes Jaime and only likes having him around when Jaime's losing in a tourney. The fact that Jaime looks like Robert's hated wife and the two are so close is probably involved in it. Not having to look at Jaime's smug face would be a very petty reason for such an important decision (not needing to replace a Master of Ships would also appeal to him), but it's in keeping with Robert's character if he doesn't have someone around to check him.

Bear in mind that this isn't me saying that Robert def was going to do it but that he could have and that no one knows what could have happened through his head. Saying that Stannis stood to benefit the most is simply having priviledged info from Martin.

Stannis recounts that he went to Jon Arryn because the accusation of incest coming from him would sound "self-serving". Stannis would be the presumptive heir by default, and Robert hasn't legitimized any bastards (the closest he came to it was some talk about bringing Mya to court). So, as things stood, Stannis was the one who would expect to benefit the most.

Stannis doesn't flee the capital, nor does he ever act frightened, the only reason he leaves the capital is because he is not named Hand of the King

Stannis went to Robert's previous Hand because he knew Robert trusted Jon Arryn and would be more likely to believe him than Stannis. If Robert had chosen Stannis as Hand, that would mean Robert was similarly entrusting him and Stannis would be empowered to act directly. We never got to see Stannis while he was in KL, instead we meet him on Dragonstone which he has locked down, so it makes sense he wouldn't be that afraid of the Lannisters there.

he's waiting for Robert (and Renly) to die

What is your basis for claiming that? He believes Jon Arryn was killed by the Lannisters (though he turns out to be incorrect about that) because of his investigation of the incest (that part is at least true when it comes to Pycelle acting on their behalf). Stannis had not gone to Renly or Robert, so neither of them are similarly marked.

we only see Renly in public and he is not going to show panic for obvious reasons

He does a masterful job of acting like a carefree man with "easy smiles", even when he's just privately talking to Ned about Margaery.

Renly (unlike Stannis) doesn't know about the impending doom

The incest bit is what we started arguing about in the first place, but are you referring to something else by "doom"? You've said that "he knows Cersei wants him dead", but I don't know what the basis for that knowledge is supposed to be.

he has no reason to fear for his inmediate life

Even though his fear that Cersei wants him dead is supposed to be his motivation for the Margaery plot?

the moment Robert dies the man is panicking over the idea of Cersei and the Lannisters taking over

He sounded more opportunistic than fearful. He begins by talking about how seizing Joffrey means controlling the kingdom, and only after Ned refuses does he say Ned should fear Cersei.

I mean, Margaery is the best possible bride

A widow of proven fertility would actually be better for most quickly providing an heir once Cersei's kids are removed. The most important thing about Margaery is that she's the only daughter of a large & powerful noble family, which is the sort of political consideration used to push a reluctant Robert into his current unhappy marriage.

He doesn't know how Lyanna looks like, which is why he asks Ned

Renly responds to Ned by saying "there were those who said she looked like Lyanna". Renly had an answer he wanted and was hoping Ned would provide it (though he still declines after Renly says that). He didn't start with a woman who actually looked like Lyanna. And he's just been talking up Margaery's looks to Robert, rather than actually showing him the picture he showed Ned.

what he does know is that Margaery's family are rich and powerful enough to replace the Lannisters

I agree that's more of his actual reasoning, even if Robert himself wouldn't necessarily start thinking along those lines.

By naming himself king, he's declaring war to Joffrey, ie fighting him.

Balon Greyjoy declared himself king, but fought Robb instead of Joffrey without any actual alliance. The Lannisters never actually fight the Greyjoys either, leaving that to other people.

No one was rushing to him after the birds were sent, no one cared about his "truth".

Varys reported that "The master of the King's Galley White Hart plots to slip anchor three days hence to offer his sword and ship to Lord Stannis". The timing regarding the letters is somewhat ambiguous though.

Cat doesn't disagree, obviously or otherwise

She responds to Stannis' allegation of incest by noting that it makes Stannis the heir. After Renly dies, Catelyn still thinks he could be the rightful king despite murdering his own brother. Brienne argues Renly's line that might makes right and kings, but Catelyn disagrees.

The Lords of the Trident were content enough to throw his lot with Renly and even when Robb doesn't like the idea

Are you referring to Jonos Bracken proposing that as an alternative to Tytos Blackwood's plan? That was before Stannis declared himself king (as Catelyn and others in the North expected).

he never considers the idea of bending the knee to Stannis even after the rumour of the twincest is out

He's already declared himself king of the North (plus the Riverlands), and hasn't come into any conflict with Stannis. He can continue fighting the Lannisters (and the Ironborn) without addressing the issue of who belongs on the Iron Throne.

Doran allies with the Lannisters

We know he's actually planning to get revenge on them.

Stannis was never going to get support to his bid to the throne

Tywin says "I have felt from the beginning that Stannis was a greater danger than all the others combined". Is Tywin supposed to be an idiot as well because none of GRRM's characters understand anything about war?

Who do you think needed to be discredited?

The closest substitute, his nearest rival.

True but the only reason there was a fight was because Stannis forced it, Stannis was the one going to Storm's End to see Renly dead.

Renly wasn't at Storm's End at the time. Stannis went there to claim his ancestral seat and the Stormlands. Renly then rushed to meet him and Stannis made his offer. It was Renly who was going to attack Stannis' forces at dawn.

Come on, and Stannis can't go along with Renly even opportunistically (he's the guy with the 100k army), doesn't sound biased at all.

I never argued that Stannis was primarily motivated by the need to get rid of Cersei by hook or by crook. Instead it's the legal implications of the incest that have set him on his course. He's not going to acclaim Renly or Joffrey as king: the former is below him in succession and the latter is a bastard. And he expects Renly to do his duty by his older brother just as Stannis had by Robert.

Renly does not need Stannis's help to destroy the Lannisters, he and his army can do it quite well

Catelyn overheard his battle plans against Stannis and even she realized Renly was making a series of errors. That's why Tywin never feared him.

This goes even after the purple wedding happens.

Stannis is trying to recover from the Blackwater at that point and not even mounting any operations against the Lannisters. The people who flock to his banner after that are all in the North, where Stannis is active.

I've passed you a link where it explains it, haven't you read it?

Reading it is how I know it doesn't contain the word "easily", even though it's a user-edited wiki and you could have added it (easily!). You still haven't cited an example of them being easily dissolved either, nor does that link provide one.

the most daring defiance in history

Since I added that caveat starting with "albeit", there's no point in denying a superlative I never claimed.

Fact is that Robert considered a kidnapping (which it kinda was)

Yes, even a not very legalistic mind like Robert's cares what the law actually is rather than thinking the King/Hand can do as they choose and everyone else must simply deal with it.

Everyone knows that Tywin is a lot of things but not an idiot,  which is why he put up with Aerys slight to his house, to him, to his wife... for a decade.

I suggest you read A Positive Account of Property Rights to understand why even animals will recognize certain things as belonging to them and will fight harder for them than that which they don't already possess. Cersei not being invited to marry Rhaegar is completely different from a marriage alliance Robert had agreed to and which had persisted for years being tossed by fiat.

Tywin has never stricken me of a suicidal type

It's not that he's suicidal, but instead that he must be able to credibly commit to taking even very risky actions when someone threatens his power.

If you say so.

I wouldn't say I have any particular affection for you, but do you think that implies I must loathe you?

The answer is no.

he expected him to attack in the morning yet was sleeping

Devan was supposed to wake him, but could not. This is not because Stannis didn't plan on being awake.

Stannis was told that Renly died and how he'd do it

Melisandre said she saw Renly's death in her flames, although she also saw Renly's army smashing his at KL, thus indicating (to Stannis, though not the reader) different possibilities. She did not say HOW Renly would die, nor did she say how the three kings for three leeches would.

Stannis knew he wouldn't win without magic

Perhaps the magic light from Lightbringer. Even aside from that, all the conditions of the battle are at Stannis' choosing to maximize his own advantage over Renly. Most of Renly's host is not yet arrived, and Renly is banking it all on an initial charge from his vanguard let by Loras (into the sun, over Randyll Tarly's objections), at a time specified in advance so that Stannis is prepared for it.

So noble of him, it would have been more noble had we have not not known that his only reason to be in Storm's End in the first was to see Renly dead and take his army.

He gets frank with Catelyn and tells he came there for the allegiance of Renly and his lords. That's why he has that meeting even though he swore that he wouldn't and hates it.

11 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

To say that Joffrey will beat Margaery just because he beat Sansa is just as silly as saying he is going to execute Mace just because he executed Ned.

Joffrey plays no part in Ned getting arrested and confessing to treason. He just gives a different sentence than the one planned. Executing someone the rest of the regime wants untouched is a completely different story. Wife-beatings are much more common than executions, and don't require anyone else's cooperation.

7 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

She has multiple witnesses, including her own grandsons, who can tell her that they saw these things with their own eyes.

Sansa has seen a lot more of Joffrey than her grandchildren have.

Lady Olenna would have to be dumber than a bag of rocks for her to trust the man whose lie got her into this fix in the first place

He was sent as an emissary of the Lannisters to propose a marriage alliance, and he did his job (at least overtly, he had discreetly arranged to badmouth Joffrey at the same meeting). It's not like she previously had trust in him which he betrayed. And he's proposing a solution which can maintain the desired marriage alliance without the risks from Joffrey specifically.

I'm just pointing out the fallacy of your argument. If the app says wine and this is proof of the wine, then if the app says Jon is Ned's bastard then that must be proof of that truth as well.

I'm not sure what bit you're referring to because of your non-standard way of quoting. And you haven't actually provided evidence that the app said Jon is Ned's bastard, instead just that you don't have it, nor further whether GRRM himself was sent that bit for approval.

Surely, Loras can see the sense in trading a few bruises for unlimited power over the entire realm.

Loras is good at knocking men off their horses with a stick, that does not imply any farsightedness on his part.

and told them all up front the Joffrey was a mad little monkey and would beat Margaery to a pulp

No, he explicitly said he pubicly praised Joffrey while having his servants spread awful rumors about him.

I assume you consider yourself a careful reader

The question is not whether I consider myself a careful reader, but whether GRRM would.

Did you carefully read the part where he makes no promises for the books?

That's why I said "It's fine if you want to argue a reveal could come out of nowhere in the future".

And how on earth is anyone going to spot a tiny missing crystal on a hairnet and connect that to a dead king on the floor?

The Strangler already appeared in the prologue. Dontos tells Sansa her hairnet has magic that will help her escape. Thus the reader can make the connection.

The whole plan is supposed to hinge on Joffrey dying and Tyrion being accused of his murder. So the contradictions are: how could they expect the dwarf joust to result in Tyrion pouring Joffrey's wine?

LF arranged for the dwarf joust, the Tyrells didn't need to be involved with that. They just needed to wait for Margaery to take an initial drink so they look like potential victims rather than suspects, then an opportune time to slip the crystal in the cup.

why would they intentionally give a giant chalice to make poisoning more difficult

You still haven't explained why the giant chalice would be more rather than less difficult for someone other than Olenna to poison.

And according to some wine theorists, the greater quantity of wine can only serve to weaken the poison, perhaps to the point that it won't kick in for minutes, or hours

They can easily afford extra minutes or hours. And since the chalice & poison were both prepared by conspirators ahead of time, they can arrange in advance not to use a combination that wouldn't work.

making sure that Joffrey and only Joffrey drinks it

The gift of the chalice was itself intended to ensure Joffrey drinks it. And it wouldn't require that much coordination to signal to Margaery that it had been poisoned, or even just to plan that she will only drink from it initially while the poisoning would happen later.

No, I'm asking why Martin would add this completely superfluous, unnecessary and extraneous half-page of text?

GRRM likes writing about food. A lot. He doesn't think of such material in those terms, instead they are what give the flavor of fantasy. And he wrote this series after feeling constrained by writing for TV where the budgets could never support the expansiveness of his vision. This feast in particular is both a depiction of royal excess as the two wealthiest paramound lords combine houses, and a distraction prior to the twist of Joffrey choking. Tyrion himself (whose POV we see that from) blames the pigeon pie, because he doesn't know what readers know.

Joking or not, Dontos would not even mention the pie if the plan was to poison the wine.

Why not? And Dontos doesn't even have to know which bit was poisoned. His job was to get the hairnet on Sansa, then to get Sansa to the ship after Joffrey was poisoned.

a yardstick straight up on your kitchen table

Still easy to put my finger on.

Sansa is afraid for Margaery, but Margaery is not afraid for herself and neither is Lady "that's a pity" Olenna

Precisely. They know that just means they're going to go ahead and poison him. The whole point of grilling Sansa was to be sure of that. Not because they never actually cared.

Has he been slaughtering animals left and right since then, laughing with glee

Yeah, he killed Tommen's just to upset him.

The antler men were traitors

They might have been, but they also owed the crown money which isn't going to be repaid now.

Nobody batted an eye when Ned chopped off the head of a NW deserter

Ned wasn't using siege equipment to do that in the middle of a battle.

This is just teen-boy bluster, and it's probably fairly effective because no one is going to risk death over a mill or a dam so they are likely to work these problems out between themselves rather than bring them to Joffrey

They ALREADY brought it to Joffrey and he DECREED that they should duel the next day to the death. Joffrey doesn't get the distinction between "bluster" and royal commands, which is why he persists in insisting that Sansa be served Robb's head.

Public or private, Joff is not going to beat Margaery

He's a vicious fool. You can't rely on him sensibly restraining his sadistic impulses.

Loras is not an idiot. Rash, maybe, but not an idiot

Certainly, compared to Joffrey

least of all Sansa who is standing right there

Is she looking at Garlan & the chalice while the pie is being brought out?

Plus, we now have to reject Garlan as the noble, honorable, brave knight that he appears to be because he is actually a sniveling, dishonorable coward who uses poison, a weapon for women, cowards and eunuchs, to kill not only his king, making him a you-know-what, but also a skinny, weakling boy untrained in even the most rudimentary weapons skills.

Loras cheated in his joust with Gregor by using a mare in heat... but that doesn't mean he's not a knight. The Tyrells aclaimed Renly as their king (based on no legal argument at all), then switched to the Lannisters, in each case because they stood to get rewarded. The Tyrells are pragmatic. Garlan drawing his sword to kill Joffrey at the feast would not be pragmatic.

But in his mind this is all being done by the will of the LoL. He does not know what Mel is up to, nor does he care because "who did the deed matters not." His hands are clean.

In this case he is specifically ordering a boat containing Mel to be landed by Davos so as to ensure her magic kills Penrose. I think that's much more deliberate and aware.

They can easily circumvent that by simply telling him to keep his cool.

Cersei didn't think she could just tell Jaime that. Instead she thought she had to hide it when Robert hit her. And Joffrey doesn't have the shame over hitting women than Robert has.

Can't you tell that LF is simply lying to Sansa in order to maintain his hold over her?

No, what he said about Olenna fiddling with the hairnet checks out. There would be no way for him to know that unless it was coordinated in advance. There's probably more to the story he still hasn't told Sansa, but what he does say matches the facts.

Jaime will be there, Lord Commander of the Kingsguard and likely regent for the next several years. Jaime is not going to allow Joffrey to beat up Margaery. It's just not going to happen.

All of Joffrey's KG allowed him to beat Sansa repeatedly. Olenna isn't going to rely on the Kingslayer to prevent that. She is going to rely on the adult Lannisters not to try to annull the marriage, because that would stupidly destroy their alliance.

Yes, LF knows Olenna fiddled with the hairnet. That was the plan.

HOW would he know about Olenna's plan unless she conspired with him, which you have repeatedly said she "would have to be dumber than a bag of rocks" to do!?

and the LF never says this

So what is it you think he lied to Sansa about in that conversation?

She was going to put it in Tyrion's pie

There is no reson to think the crystal would dissolve in the pie and not be noticeable. Whereas we already know it dissolves in wine.

And again, I'll point out that if LO is already on board with this plan to kill Joffrey, then there is really no need to "confirm" anything with Sansa at the dinner because LO has already determined that Joffrey is a menace and she is planning to kill him

It's a contingency plan.

No, disrupting the Willas plot had direct bearing on the assassination scheme. Now, instead of just killing Joffrey and making off with maiden Sansa free and clear

Delivering the info got LF cred with the Lannisters (just as his part in the poisoning helped him with the Tyrells), and ensured the Lannisters would be guarding against any designs from the Tyrells (whom Dontos had said to distrust) on Sansa. I don't know that LF was able to predict that the Lannisters would react by quickly marrying Sansa to Tyrion rather than just prohibiting her from visiting Highgarden.

which she already has because they are "pretending" not to be concerned about Joffrey

Sansa doesn't think they're "pretending". She's just confused and thinks she must be missing something (which turns out to be the assassination scheme).

Seen through the lens of the pie, however, it all makes perfect sense. The plan to kill Tyrion

Why was Olenna grilling Sansa about Joffrey at all if her plan was just to kill Tyrion? And why would she be scheming with LF to kill Tyrion so far in advance of the decision to wed Sansa to him? Recall also that Dontos gave her the hairnet in the previous book and said she would escape during Joffrey's wedding, well before LF heard about the Tyrell's marriage plot which would be disrupted by Tyrion wedding her.

But it does create the situation in which her motivation to kill Tyrion is just as strong as his

LF already blamed Tyrion for the dagger, and Tyrion has figured that out. It makes no sense that Tyrion does nothing with that knowledge, but it's still a reason for LF to kill Tyrion. The same is not true of Olenna.

Now there is a level of trust between them because they are both desirous of the same thing and she doesn't have to swallow some nonsense about LF committing regicide just to help Margaery out of the jam that he himself put her into.

Tyrion isn't nearly as protected as Joff. If they wanted to kill him, they wouldn't have to resort to a poisoning during Joffrey's wedding.

This is a far cry from a black eye and a bloody lip that he can be told well in advance to expect and not to overreact to.

No one knows the specifics of what Joffrey might do. Cersei didn't think she could just tell Jaime in advance "not to overreact".

And I believe that quote was in reference to the show anyway

He's quite explicit saying "In the books" and referring to "the careful reader". Entertainment Weekly was interviewing him because of the show, but he's discussing the books.

She doesn't even perceive how utterly impossible her Alayne cover story is right from the start

Who has seen through it?

Joffrey has given no reason for anybody to even slightly suspect he is upset with Margaery

He wasn't upset with Sansa at first, but her seeing him humiliated changed things. You can't rely on him to stay nice to anyone.

would require us to believe Lady Olenna's daft old grandma routine is real and that she hasn't the slightest clue how to play the Game of Thrones

I think she's a lot more sensible than you are.

I will explain the danger Tyrion poses to House Tyrell in another post, because it is also quite involved.

There are so many things you have to explain because they make no sense and aren't supported by anything from GRRM... in contrast to his explanation of the Purple Wedding and why Olenna wanted Joffrey dead.

Joffrey said "bring me his head" and Illyn did so. That was the process. He did this to Ned, so obviously he's going to do this to Mace, just for fun. That's how this works, right?

No, Ned had already been brought to the sept of Baelor and agreed to "confess" in advance of Joffrey doing any of that. No one thought that Janos Slynt or Ilyn Payne were out of place there, because there was supposed to be a sentencing (with the sentence to be one already arranged). And Janos Slynt had been bribed in advance to assist in Ned's execution (despite that being contrary to the rest of the Council's plan), though he wouldn't say by who (we can guess it was LF). These same things obviously wouldn't apply to Mace being executed on a whim.

Even crofters want sons. Sons produce while daughters consume.

Everyone on a farm produces. But in a patrilineal society, the elderly are more likely to rely on their sons than daughters (who would have married into another family).

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

She can also see that Sansa is not a conniver, not a schemer, not a gold-digger, or a tramp

There is no reason to expect a girl of Sansa's age to be those things. Young noble girls are likely to have their parents arrange for an appropriate marriage, so there's no need for them to personally be a "gold-digger". And Sansa's not in any position to be a conniver/schemer in KL.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Have you ever wondered why the Riverlands has been the scene of so many rising and falling petty kings, invasions and warfare?

It's low-lying fertile land with other kingdoms on all sides of it. The Reach has coasts to the west and south.

Instead of Starks marrying Locks

Did you mean to refer to House Locke, of Oldcastle in the North?

Now there is the very real possibility that these houses could unite to form a power bloc that could challenge not just the might of the Iron Throne but Highgarden as well

Why would they need to "challenge" Highgarden after taking the Iron Throne?

is now poised to seat his sister in the ruling chair

What are you talking about?

Now, Tywin controls well more than half the kingdom, in the exact same way that the Tyrells maintain control in the Reach

No, the Tyrells have been in charge of the Reach for a much longer amount of time. They're much more solidly in place despite their "dodgy" claim.

forever after

The conditions arising from a civil war are not going to last "forever after".

Tywin will be able to winkle the Reach away from the Tyrells through his control of the crown, and if the Tyrells rebel he'll serve them with fire and blood.

The North doesn't have any border with the Reach, nor does it have a large population or a lot of resources. And the vassals there are not going to be eager to go down to the Reach because Tyrion Lannister wants it. Sansa marrying Tyrion isn't that much of a threat.

6 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He beat her because she is his hostage and her brother is rebelling against the crown and winning, killing Lannisters on Lannister soil

Hostages are not for beatings that won't have any affect on Robb's actions.

He may have molested Tommen

I don't believe that. He just enjoys making Tommen miserable.

They were attempting to storm the keep.

No, they were calling for bread rather than Joffrey's head.

He's the king. Throw shit at the king and see what happens. I wonder what Lady Olenna would do if someone threw shit on Margaery?

Probably not start a riot, which is why Tyrion starts hitting him.

It will be long, long years before Margaery has to worry about a cross word from Joffrey

You are really overconfident in your ability to predict his behavior. Cersei wasn't able to predict how he'd behave when he became king, and she's known him all his life!

[frenin]

On 3/25/2021 at 2:56 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

Daemon had no children and lived apart from his wife, so claiming he hadn't consummated the marriage so it could be annulled would not be a facially obvious lie.

Well it would be an obvious lie unless only goats were their witnesses for the bedding.

 

On 3/25/2021 at 2:56 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

Robert dislikes Jaime and only likes having him around when Jaime's losing in a tourney. The fact that Jaime looks like Robert's hated wife and the two are so close is probably involved in it. Not having to look at Jaime's smug face would be a very petty reason for such an important decision (not needing to replace a Master of Ships would also appeal to him), but it's in keeping with Robert's character if he doesn't have someone around to check him.

Because as we all know,the only way to not have Jaime around is granting him one of the most important titles in the entire Realm.

Why should he replace the Master of the Ships?? Jaime got the title and he didn't go anywhere, the title only means that Jaime held the nominal command over all the troops of the East, it didn't mean Jaime had to go to the Vale.

 

 

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Stannis recounts that he went to Jon Arryn because the accusation of incest coming from him would sound "self-serving". Stannis would be the presumptive heir by default, and Robert hasn't legitimized any bastards (the closest he came to it was some talk about bringing Mya to court). So, as things stood, Stannis was the one who would expect to benefit the most.

Yes, this accounts tell us what Stannis believes, what it absolutely doesn't  is telling us what Robert  might have done, Robert hasn't legitimized any bastard because he believed his trueborn children would inherit and that's muddying the waters.

As things stood Stannis was only one of the many people who could benefit or not from Robert's decision, unless Stannis believed that Robert would die childless soon after. Unless either you or Stannis could tell with 100% accuracy that Robert would not marry and father children right away or simply legitimize Edric because he wants his blood on the throne.

 

 

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Stannis went to Robert's previous Hand because he knew Robert trusted Jon Arryn and would be more likely to believe him than Stannis. If Robert had chosen Stannis as Hand, that would mean Robert was similarly entrusting him and Stannis would be empowered to act directly. We never got to see Stannis while he was in KL, instead we meet him on Dragonstone which he has locked down, so it makes sense he wouldn't be that afraid of the Lannisters there.

He chose Ned Stark and Eddard is loyal to Robert to the bone, he also has a notoriously stormy relationship with the Lannisters.  Yet... He becomes jealous, resents Robert and abandon him to die.

It's not that he is not "that" afraid, he doesn't once mention or hints to be afraid of them. 

 

 

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What is your basis for claiming that? He believes Jon Arryn was killed by the Lannisters (though he turns out to be incorrect about that) because of his investigation of the incest (that part is at least true when it comes to Pycelle acting on their behalf). Stannis had not gone to Renly or Robert, so neither of them are similarly marked.

How the Baratheons are not marked?? Someone who has commited high treason by killing the Hand of the King is not going to stop just like that and the sooner their biggest reason for concern is dead (Robert) the better, else someone else might discover the truth  and tell Robert and Robert kills them. The Lannisters also hate Renly. 

Hemakes no efforts to contact with Ned, he even ignore Med's summonings to King's Landing, he steals the Royal Fleet and he starts hiring sellswords the moment he arrives in Dragonstone. 

Stannis was preparing himself for a war a good year before anyone else got wind that trouble was coming...

 

 

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He does a masterful job of acting like a carefree man with "easy smiles", even when he's just privately talking to Ned about Margaery.

Indeed, that'shis character and persona and he was playing the game when he was talking with Ned, nor he was in a panic attack.

 

 

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The incest bit is what we started arguing about in the first place, but are you referring to something else by "doom"? You've said that "he knows Cersei wants him dead", but I don't know what the basis for that knowledge is supposed to be.

Well, Cersei for one made it clear, just as Joffrey. Renly or one implicitly made it clear to Ned and would later explicitly say it so to Cat.

What's the reason of their feud?? No one can say for now, we're lacking 13 years of Robert's reign worth of info.

By doom i mean the war that would soon start with Robert's death.

 

 

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Even though his fear that Cersei wants him dead is supposed to be his motivation for the Margaery plot?

He knows that Cersei wants him dead, he doesn't know that Cersei is going to move against him now, nor he has any reason to believe that Arryn's death wasn't natural.

 

 

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He sounded more opportunistic than fearful. He begins by talking about how seizing Joffrey means controlling the kingdom, and only after Ned refuses does he say Ned should fear Cersei.

 There is a wat to measure it?? Because those two go intertwined and putting one before the other doesn't mean he is any less feaurful. 

What he says about the Lannisters is not to convince Ned, as he has given up pn him by that point.

 

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A widow of proven fertility would actually be better for most quickly providing an heir once Cersei's kids are removed. The most important thing about Margaery is that she's the only daughter of a large & powerful noble family, which is the sort of political consideration used to push a reluctant Robert into his current unhappy marriage.

A widow of proven feritility, with the right age and the right house?? That's not easy to come by.

If Robert doesn't want more political marriages he should legitimize a bastard and be done with it abdicate. All marriages have a sort of political consideration in them. And whether he was going to be unhappy or not, he could only start telling that after knowing Margaery, it's not that she doesn't know how to win people over.

 

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Renly responds to Ned by saying "there were those who said she looked like Lyanna". Renly had an answer he wanted and was hoping Ned would provide it (though he still declines after Renly says that). He didn't start with a woman who actually looked like Lyanna. And he's just been talking up Margaery's looks to Robert, rather than actually showing him the picture he showed Ned.

Fair enough.

 

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Balon Greyjoy declared himself king, but fought Robb instead of Joffrey without any actual alliance. The Lannisters never actually fight the Greyjoys either, leaving that to other people.

Yeah and he was bound to fight them. Renly was heading to King's Landing, unlike Balon and declared himsekf the King of the seven kingdoms.

Or are you saying that when Balon declared himsel king the first time... he was  not bound to clash with Robert?

 

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Varys reported that "The master of the King's Galley White Hart plots to slip anchor three days hence to offer his sword and ship to Lord Stannis". The timing regarding the letters is somewhat ambiguous though.

Oh my bad,  the Master if the King's Galley White Hart does  want to  serve him.

Any other Lord??

 

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She responds to Stannis' allegation of incest by noting that it makes Stannis the heir. After Renly dies, Catelyn still thinks he could be the rightful king despite murdering his own brother. Brienne argues Renly's line that might makes right and kings, but Catelyn disagrees.

1. She does, that doesn't mean she cares. Renly says as much and he doesn't care either.
2. Cat knows the truth from Jaime's own lips in ACOK yet she advises Robb to bend the knee to Joffrey a book later all the same, not to Stannis, to someone he knew was a bastard and illegitimate.

 

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Are you referring to Jonos Bracken proposing that as an alternative to Tytos Blackwood's plan? That was before Stannis declared himself king (as Catelyn and others in the North expected).

And how would  that change his views at that moment?? No one in the North same inclined to support Stannis and he lacked Renly's appeal and Joffrey's legitimity.

Marq Piper put into question Stannis's claim over Renly's army just the same.

 

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He's already declared himself king of the North (plus the Riverlands), and hasn't come into any conflict with Stannis. He can continue fighting the Lannisters (and the Ironborn) without addressing the issue of who belongs on the Iron Throne.

And the Reach and Stormlands had already declared for Renly and weren't seeing a conflict with Stannis likely.

He can continue to fight the Lannisters without addresing the issu of who belongs onthe Iron Throne but he cannot do it without addresing the issue of to whom his loyalty belong to and who is the real soverign of the North. Which is why even when he tried to reach for help to Renly (and Stannis by proxy) the negotiations went so bad as either would want  Robb's fealty.

Yet if the twincest was such a dealbreaker... There should be a movement of Lords flocking to Stannis right away.

 

 

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We know he's actually planning to get revenge on them.

And he was planning to get revenge on Robert yet he bent the knee and religiously paid his taxes till Robert died.

The official story is that the Martell allied the Lannisters however, not Stannis.

 

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Tywin says "I have felt from the beginning that Stannis was a greater danger than all the others combined". Is Tywin supposed to be an idiot as well because none of GRRM's characters understand anything about war?

Tywin is making an assestment based on character, nothing else. Tywin himself doesn't know the support Stannis might have.

We actually get to see what the support of the greater Baratheon danger is  and what his prospects before murdering Renly really are!!! Are you basing your entire argument on a single hype line instead of the rest of the books? In the prologue he is supported by no one, which is what pushes him to Melisandre and to kill Renly, after the Blackwater he is again supported by no on, which is what pushes him to decide to murder his nephews.

Is Tywin an idiot?? No, i think he's simply overestimating a dangerous foe, he believed Stannis might have had a chance to rally the Dornish to his cause... 

 

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The closest substitute, his nearest rival.

Tommen?? He doesn't once gives credit to the rumours anyway.  Why doesn't he try to discredit Joffrey, the one who at his lowest point counted with more swords and resources than Stannis had ever had at any point of the books, in the months  before Stannis pushes his claim forth?? At that point Joffy was "the closest substitute, his nearest rival".

 

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Renly wasn't at Storm's End at the time. Stannis went there to claim his ancestral seat and the Stormlands. Renly then rushed to meet him and Stannis made his offer. It was Renly who was going to attack Stannis' forces at dawn.

1. Why the fact that Renly wasn't at Storm's End means that he's not bound to answer an attack on his castle??
2. Stannis has no ancentral seat nor was he owed the Stormlords's support. Robert gave Storm's End and the Stormlands to Renly and Stannis knew that. Believing Storm's End belonged to Stannis is as baffling as believing Lady Forlom belongs to Lyonel Corbray and not Lyn, a pure act of entitlement. Fact is, neither the Stormlands, nor Storm's End acknowledged Stannis had right  to anything so long Renly lived. And Stannis laid siege to the castle,which is an aggresion.
3. Both made offers.
4. Stannis said come at dawn. And ofc Renly had to attack his forces, how would he break the siege otherwise??

 

 

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I never argued that Stannis was primarily motivated by the need to get rid of Cersei by hook or by crook. Instead it's the legal implications of the incest that have set him on his course. He's not going to acclaim Renly or Joffrey as king: the former is below him in succession and the latter is a bastard. And he expects Renly to do his duty by his older brother just as Stannis had by Robert.

No, you're arguing that the fact that Renly doesn't bend the knee to Stanni when he has zero to gain from it means that he never wanted to get rid of Cersei, which is simply silly. Renly has a massive advantage over any pretender in the war and Stannis (bar shadowabies) was the least of his concerns. Renly has a 100k army and is already starving King's Landing off from afar, he doesn't need Stannis.

Stannis was not primarily motivated by the need to get rid of Cersei by hook or by crook, Stannis was primarily motivated to get Renly's army by hook (Renly bending the knee to him) or by  crook (him murdering Renly). As Cressen told him, his real enemy were the Lannisters, he should have made common cause with Renly. One could say that the fact that Stannis chose the path that guaranteed Renly's death instead of considering to approach the Arryns or the Starks is because he wanted him dead, one could have a far easier time defending that, it's in the books.

 

 

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Catelyn overheard his battle plans against Stannis and even she realized Renly was making a series of errors. That's why Tywin never feared him.

She doesn't call it errors but rashness and admits that Renly is a lot like Robert and Robert was noted for his leadership, even when he didn't have Ned with him.

Still with the Tywin line huh??

 

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Stannis is trying to recover from the Blackwater at that point and not even mounting any operations against the Lannisters. The people who flock to his banner after that are all in the North, where Stannis is active.

The people who flock to his banner do so after Tywin dies.  Leaving yet another power vacuum to fill in the Realm, the only one Stannis could count before that was a Karstark that was already planning of backstabbing him.

Without Tywin dying, Stannis would have rotten either on the Wall or on Dragronstone.

 

 

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Reading it is how I know it doesn't contain the word "easily", even though it's a user-edited wiki and you could have added it (easily!). You still haven't cited an example of them being easily dissolved either, nor does that link provide one.

Fair enough, can't be done easily, can be done regardless.

 

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Since I added that caveat starting with "albeit", there's no point in denying a superlative I never claimed.

I know you did and why did it. I'm stating that what he does do not account for open rebellion so actually trying to argue he would kickstar an open rebellion by using an instance in which he does not do that is baffling.

 

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Yes, even a not very legalistic mind like Robert's cares what the law actually is rather than thinking the King/Hand can do as they choose and everyone else must simply deal with it.

That and that the kidnapped one was his brother in law.

Yet, the king sill can set aside a marriage.

 

 

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I suggest you read A Positive Account of Property Rights to understand why even animals will recognize certain things as belonging to them and will fight harder for them than that which they don't already possess. Cersei not being invited to marry Rhaegar is completely different from a marriage alliance Robert had agreed to and which had persisted for years being tossed by fiat.

Aerys publicly insulted and humiliated him for a decade, made him the butt of jokes (something he really dislikes), humiliated him in front of his vassals, rob him of his heir, molested his wife, mocked his wife's death etc etc etc. Yet Tywin doesn't rebel... Sounds about right. 

Whether they will fight or not depends entirely on how desperate they are and how weak is the king. Aegon V and Jaeharys I implemented laws that took rights nobles considered were their god given rights. One encountered fierce resistance, the other didn't. Why do you think it was? 

Do you think Tywin would have risen against a dragonrider King??

 

 

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It's not that he's suicidal, but instead that he must be able to credibly commit to taking even very risky actions when someone threatens his power.

His power is not threatened since his grandsons are set to inherit regardless, starting a war he cannot win and that would likely end with his and his  nearest relative's heads on a pike does seem something that would... threaten his power.

 

 

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I wouldn't say I have any particular affection for you, but do you think that implies I must loathe you?

Fair enough.

 

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Devan was supposed to wake him, but could not. This is not because Stannis didn't plan on being awake.

Unless Stannis was in a comatose sleep this sounds as unlike, especially when that day his fate was being decided. He was on that moment viewing with the ghost'seyes how he killed his own brother, which is why he "thrashed and cried out". Killing your own brother can make you cry, evenif you're Stannis.

 

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Melisandre said she saw Renly's death in her flames, although she also saw Renly's army smashing his at KL, thus indicating (to Stannis, though not the reader) different possibilities. She did not say HOW Renly would die, nor did she say how the three kings for three leeches would.

Melisandre says that if Stannis goes to Storm's End, Renly would come to him and he'll die, Cressen who is neither stupid nor delusional, understands right away the meaning behind those words and calls it fratricide, even when Stannis hears this he's open to know how his brother can be killed.

History would repeat itself with Penrose,  Stannis would tell Davos that "Melisandre had seen his death in the flames", but Davos would get right away that what he's saying is "Melisandre is going to kill him,  I want you to assist her". Come on now, this is not a Shelocknian detuction. Stannis even remarks that it doesn't matter how healthy Penrose is, Renly also was healthy the day he was killed.

 

 

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Perhaps the magic light from Lightbringer. Even aside from that, all the conditions of the battle are at Stannis' choosing to maximize his own advantage over Renly. Most of Renly's host is not yet arrived, and Renly is banking it all on an initial charge from his vanguard let by Loras (into the sun, over Randyll Tarly's objections), at a time specified in advance so that Stannis is prepared for it.

I have read all those theories several times and none have convinced me in the least, Stannis should have the accurate precision of a fortune teller. Besides that, the most important factor is that Stannis never mentions such plans,  those are all fan made theories made to exonerate him based on nothing Stannis says and do, perfect example, Stannis drawing his sword on a fit o anger after his brother implies that he is being cuckolded by a buffoon is transformed into Stannis carefully testing the effects of his swords on horses. That and the fact that it treats Stannis's word as gospel, Davos himself can tell that Stannis is hiding something and Stannis would later say to his closest confidant that he would seek justice for Ned Stark... And we know how truly Stannis feels about Ned. Or that some of Renly's supporters would defect to Stannis if Renly retreats... The idea that  the vanguard would be trampled enough time to allow Stannis a swift victory is also ludicrous, as Renly notes, this would not continue forever. Or that Stannis has hidden knights... There was a sizable garrison on Storm's End that would have fallen on his rear anyway, making most of the plan moot.

I don't really see the problem with Loras, Stannis has Ser Guyard leading his van at the Blackwater andLoras actually is one of the ones leading Tywin's relieve forces.

Stannis cannot know how many men would ride with Renly and so on. And also it makes up secret traps that Stannis made for Renly that aren't mentioned in four books and counting.

 

 

On 3/25/2021 at 2:56 AM, FictionIsntReal said:

Perhaps the magic light from Lightbringer. Even aside from that, all the conditions of the battle are at Stannis' choosing to maximize his own advantage over Renly. Most of Renly's host is not yet arrived, and Renly is banking it all on an initial charge from his vanguard let by Loras (into the sun, over Randyll Tarly's objections), at a time specified in advance so that Stannis is prepared for it.

He gets frank with Catelyn but not all the frank he should be. The only way he was getting said allegiance was Renly bending the knee (preferable outcome), Renly dying (not preferable but he'd still go through it).

It's not like he wasn't in Storm's End because he was told his brother would die there or something.

 

[SeanF]

On 3/8/2021 at 12:21 PM, saltedmalted said:

Why does he go around crowning other would-be-kings when he could reap rewards by simply staying out?

Mace could crown himself if that is what his pride demands. Many people say that he couldn't do so because he had no "claim" but what claim did Renly have?

Crowning Joffrey also makes little sense from a rational cost-benefit point of view. The Lannisters were facing certain defeat unless Mace chose to bail them out.

Why should Mace save the Lannisters when he could get great leverage by just sitting at home?

There are advantages to being the man behind the man.  The Tyrells have manouvered themselves into a position of great power.  Of course, they may now be heading for a fall.

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

This is untrue. Like LF said, they needed a king for Margaery to be a queen, but they did not need Joffrey. Plus, the Tyrells don't want Margaery to be beaten up, so bim, you kill Joffrey and marry her to Tommen who is guarenteed to not beat up Margaery.

 

She wouldn't order the whole crowd killed because of one person, I think that's obvious.

Again, "LF said . . ." LF is the biggest liar in the book and Sansa is the most gullible. We can see this lie for what it is because it is full of holes. The Tyrell object is not just to make Margaery a queen but to put her son on the Iron Throne so that they control the kingdom just like Tywin does now. For this, they need Joffrey. For one thing, Joffrey is ready to consummate right now, and Margaery can deliver her first child within a year. With Tommen, they have to wait five years or more, during which time the "marriage" can be set aside for any reason that Cersei chooses. You see, with Tommen as king, Cersei remains regent, whereas if Joffrey lived she would have been packed off to her next husband in a fortnight. Once Margaery has delivered an heir or two or three, they can get rid of Joffrey at any time regardless of whether he is beating Margy or not. And then Margaery serves as Queen Regent until her son comes of age, probably 10 years or more. Think about that. Margaery is the ultimate authority in the kingdom, able to make laws at a whim. Even if her marriage to Tommen lasts, the best she will be is queen consort, which offers virtually zero authority over anything.

Of course the Tyrells don't want Margaery beaten up. But there is zero evidence, absolutely none, that this is even a remote possibility at this point. Look at them at the wedding: Joffrey is over the moon at marrying her rather than mopey, dreary Sansa. "Come, my lady, it's the pie," and he grabs her hand and whisks her to the floor. After the cutting, he twirls her around "merrily." The boy is simply ecstatic.

And we can also see how easily Margaery is able to manipulate him, getting him to overrule the mighty Lord Tywin over what sword to use to cut the pie. It's a minor thing, sure, but it shows you how Margaery will operate going forward. Instead of saying "No, you can't" or belittling his knowledge or authority the way Sansa, Tyrion, Tywin, Cersei and pretty much everyone else does, she lays a gentle hand on his shoulder and, "Widows Wail was not meant for cutting pies, Your Grace." And then Joffrey makes the decision to use Illyn's sword himself. And can't you just hear the sexual innuendo dripping off this one line, basically "Oh mighty king, what a large and powerful sword you have." This is how we can tell that Margaery is a master seductress. She is going to take Joffrey into that bedding chamber and do things for him and to him that he can't even imagine right now. It will be a long, long time before she has to worry about a cross word from Joffrey, let alone violence. And as I said, by then she can get rid of him in all sorts of ways that don't require poisoning him directly in front of a thousand witnesses, and then she rules the kingdom.

And this whole idea that Joffrey just strolls around all day beating on maidens just for fun is nonsense. What happened to Sansa happened for reasons that are unique to Sansa, namely:

• she is completely alone in the capital, with no father, brothers, guards, soldiers etc. to protect her. Margaery has the full might of Highgarden at her back;
• Joffrey has a personal dislike for Sansa, not just because she saw him cry like a baby on the Trident, but she goes out of her way to insult him, belittle him, order him about, correct him and anything else to get on his bad side. Margaery, as I showed, plays him like a fiddle.
• Sansa's family is in open rebellion to the crown, and her brother is raiding through the westerlands killing Lannisters on Lannister soil. The beating in the lower bailey was specifically because "You are here to answer for your brother's crimes." Realize that Sansa might be Joffrey's betrothed, but she is also the crown's hostage, and this is what happens to hostages when their lords rebel. If Balon Greyjoy had started up again, nobody would think Ned was a mad tyrant if he beat, tortured or even executed Theon. In fact, most of his bannermen, and probably Robert as well, would question his fitness as lord and Warden of the North, if he didn't.

So the idea that Joffrey is going to start beating Margaery just because he beat Sansa is as ludicrous as that he will execute Mace just because he executed Ned. Different people, different circumstances, different relationships with Joffrey, different results.

Plus, we have the fact that Margaery is key to the alliance that keeps Joffrey on the throne. If Joffrey doesn't realize this, grandpa Tywin will be sure to explain it, and Jaime is already on his way back to resume his post as Lord Commander of the King's Guard. There will be no mistreatment of Margaery on his watch, you can count on that. She's too important.

And even if the worst happens and Joffrey does start to knock Margaery around. So what? What's a few bumps and bruises when the prize is the Iron Throne? Plenty of queens have suffered far worse for their crowns. And if it does become a problem, well, like I said, Joffrey will be expendable by then. And you can bet your boots that this will all be explained to Loras as well, so there will be no blood spilling in the streets because Loras is such a berserker. Look at how easily Jaime had him back down from Brienne. The guy is not a raving maniac, despite the shock of finding his king and lover lying in his own blood unexpectedly.

So there is absolutely no upside in trading Joffrey for Tommen at this point, and there is a huge downside. Not only do you come away with less if you are successful, but the odds of getting caught are extraordinarily high (the chalice is literally in plain view of a thousand people) and the consequences are not just for Lady Olenna but virtually the entire Tyrell family. Everyone she holds nearest and dearest to her heart, save for Willas, is in that throne room surrounded by Lannister guards who will drag them all down to the black cells if just one person sees this reach up to the chalice, all glittering and golden like a giant fishing lure.

 

She might. She's pretty ruthless. She wouldn't just let it slide (sorry).

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Joffrey plays no part in Ned getting arrested and confessing to treason. He just gives a different sentence than the one planned. Executing someone the rest of the regime wants untouched is a completely different story. Wife-beatings are much more common than executions, and don't require anyone else's cooperation.

Sansa has seen a lot more of Joffrey than her grandchildren have.

 

He was sent as an emissary of the Lannisters to propose a marriage alliance, and he did his job (at least overtly, he had discreetly arranged to badmouth Joffrey at the same meeting). It's not like she previously had trust in him which he betrayed. And he's proposing a solution which can maintain the desired marriage alliance without the risks from Joffrey specifically.

 

I'm not sure what bit you're referring to because of your non-standard way of quoting. And you haven't actually provided evidence that the app said Jon is Ned's bastard, instead just that you don't have it, nor further whether GRRM himself was sent that bit for approval.

 

Loras is good at knocking men off their horses with a stick, that does not imply any farsightedness on his part.

 

No, he explicitly said he pubicly praised Joffrey while having his servants spread awful rumors about him.

 

The question is not whether I consider myself a careful reader, but whether GRRM would.

 

That's why I said "It's fine if you want to argue a reveal could come out of nowhere in the future".

 

The Strangler already appeared in the prologue. Dontos tells Sansa her hairnet has magic that will help her escape. Thus the reader can make the connection.

 

LF arranged for the dwarf joust, the Tyrells didn't need to be involved with that. They just needed to wait for Margaery to take an initial drink so they look like potential victims rather than suspects, then an opportune time to slip the crystal in the cup.

 

You still haven't explained why the giant chalice would be more rather than less difficult for someone other than Olenna to poison.

 

They can easily afford extra minutes or hours. And since the chalice & poison were both prepared by conspirators ahead of time, they can arrange in advance not to use a combination that wouldn't work.

 

The gift of the chalice was itself intended to ensure Joffrey drinks it. And it wouldn't require that much coordination to signal to Margaery that it had been poisoned, or even just to plan that she will only drink from it initially while the poisoning would happen later.

 

GRRM likes writing about food. A lot. He doesn't think of such material in those terms, instead they are what give the flavor of fantasy. And he wrote this series after feeling constrained by writing for TV where the budgets could never support the expansiveness of his vision. This feast in particular is both a depiction of royal excess as the two wealthiest paramound lords combine houses, and a distraction prior to the twist of Joffrey choking. Tyrion himself (whose POV we see that from) blames the pigeon pie, because he doesn't know what readers know.

 

Why not? And Dontos doesn't even have to know which bit was poisoned. His job was to get the hairnet on Sansa, then to get Sansa to the ship after Joffrey was poisoned.

 

Still easy to put my finger on.

 

Precisely. They know that just means they're going to go ahead and poison him. The whole point of grilling Sansa was to be sure of that. Not because they never actually cared.

 

Yeah, he killed Tommen's just to upset him.

 

They might have been, but they also owed the crown money which isn't going to be repaid now.

 

Ned wasn't using siege equipment to do that in the middle of a battle.

 

They ALREADY brought it to Joffrey and he DECREED that they should duel the next day to the death. Joffrey doesn't get the distinction between "bluster" and royal commands, which is why he persists in insisting that Sansa be served Robb's head.

 

He's a vicious fool. You can't rely on him sensibly restraining his sadistic impulses.

 

Certainly, compared to Joffrey

 

Is she looking at Garlan & the chalice while the pie is being brought out?

 

Loras cheated in his joust with Gregor by using a mare in heat... but that doesn't mean he's not a knight. The Tyrells aclaimed Renly as their king (based on no legal argument at all), then switched to the Lannisters, in each case because they stood to get rewarded. The Tyrells are pragmatic. Garlan drawing his sword to kill Joffrey at the feast would not be pragmatic.

 

In this case he is specifically ordering a boat containing Mel to be landed by Davos so as to ensure her magic kills Penrose. I think that's much more deliberate and aware.

 

Cersei didn't think she could just tell Jaime that. Instead she thought she had to hide it when Robert hit her. And Joffrey doesn't have the shame over hitting women than Robert has.

 

No, what he said about Olenna fiddling with the hairnet checks out. There would be no way for him to know that unless it was coordinated in advance. There's probably more to the story he still hasn't told Sansa, but what he does say matches the facts.

 

All of Joffrey's KG allowed him to beat Sansa repeatedly. Olenna isn't going to rely on the Kingslayer to prevent that. She is going to rely on the adult Lannisters not to try to annull the marriage, because that would stupidly destroy their alliance.

 

HOW would he know about Olenna's plan unless she conspired with him, which you have repeatedly said she "would have to be dumber than a bag of rocks" to do!?

 

So what is it you think he lied to Sansa about in that conversation?

 

There is no reson to think the crystal would dissolve in the pie and not be noticeable. Whereas we already know it dissolves in wine.

 

It's a contingency plan.

 

Delivering the info got LF cred with the Lannisters (just as his part in the poisoning helped him with the Tyrells), and ensured the Lannisters would be guarding against any designs from the Tyrells (whom Dontos had said to distrust) on Sansa. I don't know that LF was able to predict that the Lannisters would react by quickly marrying Sansa to Tyrion rather than just prohibiting her from visiting Highgarden.

 

Sansa doesn't think they're "pretending". She's just confused and thinks she must be missing something (which turns out to be the assassination scheme).

 

Why was Olenna grilling Sansa about Joffrey at all if her plan was just to kill Tyrion? And why would she be scheming with LF to kill Tyrion so far in advance of the decision to wed Sansa to him? Recall also that Dontos gave her the hairnet in the previous book and said she would escape during Joffrey's wedding, well before LF heard about the Tyrell's marriage plot which would be disrupted by Tyrion wedding her.

 

LF already blamed Tyrion for the dagger, and Tyrion has figured that out. It makes no sense that Tyrion does nothing with that knowledge, but it's still a reason for LF to kill Tyrion. The same is not true of Olenna.

 

Tyrion isn't nearly as protected as Joff. If they wanted to kill him, they wouldn't have to resort to a poisoning during Joffrey's wedding.

 

No one knows the specifics of what Joffrey might do. Cersei didn't think she could just tell Jaime in advance "not to overreact".

 

He's quite explicit saying "In the books" and referring to "the careful reader". Entertainment Weekly was interviewing him because of the show, but he's discussing the books.

 

Who has seen through it?

 

He wasn't upset with Sansa at first, but her seeing him humiliated changed things. You can't rely on him to stay nice to anyone.

 

I think she's a lot more sensible than you are.

 

There are so many things you have to explain because they make no sense and aren't supported by anything from GRRM... in contrast to his explanation of the Purple Wedding and why Olenna wanted Joffrey dead.

 

No, Ned had already been brought to the sept of Baelor and agreed to "confess" in advance of Joffrey doing any of that. No one thought that Janos Slynt or Ilyn Payne were out of place there, because there was supposed to be a sentencing (with the sentence to be one already arranged). And Janos Slynt had been bribed in advance to assist in Ned's execution (despite that being contrary to the rest of the Council's plan), though he wouldn't say by who (we can guess it was LF). These same things obviously wouldn't apply to Mace being executed on a whim.

 

Everyone on a farm produces. But in a patrilineal society, the elderly are more likely to rely on their sons than daughters (who would have married into another family).

There is no reason to expect a girl of Sansa's age to be those things. Young noble girls are likely to have their parents arrange for an appropriate marriage, so there's no need for them to personally be a "gold-digger". And Sansa's not in any position to be a conniver/schemer in KL.

It's low-lying fertile land with other kingdoms on all sides of it. The Reach has coasts to the west and south.

 

Did you mean to refer to House Locke, of Oldcastle in the North?

 

Why would they need to "challenge" Highgarden after taking the Iron Throne?

 

What are you talking about?

 

No, the Tyrells have been in charge of the Reach for a much longer amount of time. They're much more solidly in place despite their "dodgy" claim.

 

The conditions arising from a civil war are not going to last "forever after".

 

The North doesn't have any border with the Reach, nor does it have a large population or a lot of resources. And the vassals there are not going to be eager to go down to the Reach because Tyrion Lannister wants it. Sansa marrying Tyrion isn't that much of a threat.

Hostages are not for beatings that won't have any affect on Robb's actions.

 

I don't believe that. He just enjoys making Tommen miserable.

 

No, they were calling for bread rather than Joffrey's head.

 

Probably not start a riot, which is why Tyrion starts hitting him.

 

You are really overconfident in your ability to predict his behavior. Cersei wasn't able to predict how he'd behave when he became king, and she's known him all his life!

I didn't say arrestedfor forced to confess (although he did make that a requirement, in open court, in front of everybody). I said executed. That was all Joffrey, and he publicly stated that it was against the wishes of his mother and his betrothed. So Lady O can see just from this that not only is he rash, but he is a liar and an idiot, because anyone with half a brain can see what a dumb thing this was to do.

Horace and Hobber have seen enough to give Olenna the full picture. The lie about mercy, the execution, the singer's tongue removed, Sansa's beatings . . . Read the whole chapter again. Sansa reveals nothing that Lady Olenna shouldn't already have had from many direct eyewitnesses.

So Littlefinger goes to Highgarden, lies about Joffrey. Then immediately confesses his lie and says they have to kill him. And Lady O is powerless to change Mace's mind, even when she has LF right there saying he lied? Sorry, keep trying.

No, I don't have the app. Tried it once, but it kept jamming, but that was a few phones ago, so maybe I'll try again. But you have it. Does it say Jon is Ned's bastard or not? If so, should we not accept this is the unvarnished truth as well, or is it likely that Martin chooses not to reveal such major plot points in a silly thing like an app instead of the book?

Jaime de-escalated Loras in two seconds when he wanted to ice Brienne. Jaime is Lord Commander of the Kingsguard and Loras is a member of that Kingsguard, answerable to Jaime. Loras is not going to attack Joffrey just because Margaery has a bruise, if it ever even comes to that, which is highly unlikely. And Jaime will give the KG the same instructions for Joffrey that he gave for Tommen: if he commands you to saddle his horse, do it. If he commands you to kill a man, come to me. I think they would have the sense to know that if they command them to strip and beat Margaery in public or private, they go to Jaime.

Yes, LF praised Joffrey, told them what an honorable, noble young man he was and how he would honor and cherish Margaery all her days and blah, blah, blah. And he is the only person to ever describe him in this way, so it was based on this lie and this lie alone that you say Mace agreed to this match. And now you say that LF immediately turns around and tells the truth to Lady Olenna, and rather than just telling this to Mace, you say she instead enters into this plot with the man who lied to get Margaery into this fix, and then for some reason has to then confirm all of this from another complete stranger despite the confession of the man who lied and the multiple trusted people who saw it all as well, and then she continues to trust him as she literally puts the lives of her entire family on the line while the liar and double-crosser remains safe and sound. Good grief, what an unbelievably poor understanding of Lady Olenna Tyrell.

Yes, the strangler appeared in the prologue. And it killed Cressen in as little as five seconds after a half-swallow of unremarkable-looking wine. Then, Joffrey takes multiple huge chugs of wine that is supposed to be so thoroughly poisoned that it has turned "deep purple," he yet he shows no reaction, not a squeak, for five seconds, then ten, 15, 20 seconds or so later we get the first little kof. Then he drinks wine to wash the pie down his throat and, viola, five seconds later he starts choking, just like Cressen. All just a huge coincidence, I know, because Martin is such a lazy writer who doesn't pay attention to details. That's why he is able to crank out his books so quickly.

Yes, LF arranged the joust. And from this, LF is absolutely certain that

• the joust will produce a spat between Joff and Tyrion. Not a bad assumption, provided Tyrion is even in the room at the time and not off to the privy;
• the spat will involve the chalice. Not a terrible assumption, but far from certain. Joff's favorite toy is his new sword, which he is wearing, so he could just as easily have grabbed that;
• the spat devolves to the point where Tyrion is made cup-bearer and has any reason at all to even touch the chalice. Now we are starting to stretch things a bit;
• that Joffrey will conveniently place the chalice in the exact spot where it can be poisoned, not a foot to the left or to the right.

If any one of these things does not happen, the whole plan is bust and Margaery is dragged off to be defiled by little worm-lips, forever ineligible to marry another king again (and where people get that notion I have no idea). And Lady Olenna, being the complete idiot that she is, sees absolutely nothing wrong with this plan. So again, the wine creates more conflicts with the text, at each and every step, one after another. It just doesn't fit.

I've explained the problems with the chalice at least three times. Last time: the chalice is three feet tall. Instead of reaching six inches above the table to a goblet that hardly anybody can see, they have to get to a rim that is three feet above the table. And this has to be done within a second or two, so the arm movement must be very fast, which draws the eye, right to the giant three foot chalice all golden and bejeweled like a giant fishing lure that is sitting in plain sight to a thousand people, not to mention the two people who are standing right in front of it. And, this chalice is to be shared by the bride and groom during toasts, which are inevitable at this formal pie-cutting ceremony ("Lord Buckler wants to toast us."). So in virtually every way imaginable, giving this particular gift to the couple and then using it to murder just Joffrey is utterly insane. But again, dimwitted Lady Olenna is to stupid to even consider this.

No, they do not have extra hours or minutes. The longer it takes between drinking and dying, the less likely it is that Tyrion will be framed. Plus, the night is growing long. Someone could call for the bedding at any time. If M&J are in the room alone and suddenly Joffrey drops dead, guess who the prime suspect is? Not Tyrion. I'm not even going to go into the scientific reasons why greater dilution will not affect the timing of the poisoning anyway, just the intensity. But no, more wine in the chalice will not slow the poison down, it will only make it less effective.

No, the conspirators did not create the chalice or the poison. Where is your evidence for that? The poison was created either in Lys, Braavos or maybe in Oldtown. It is extremely difficult to make and extremely rare and expensive. You don't need to inform either the alchemist or the jeweler what you need them for.

I'm not talking about the descriptions of the feast before the poisoning. I'm talking about the half page of completely unnecessary action and dialog that follows. It has absolutely no bearing on the story if the poison was in the wine. Joff could, and should, have just drunk one gulp, grabbed his throat and dropped. The only reason for adding the subsequent text is to show you clearly and plainly, that the poison was in the pie. Literally, Joffrey tells you, with his dying breath, "It's kof, the pie, kof, noth, pie." Do you think he's lying here? He's dying, but he wants to screw with everybody by making it seem like the poison was in Tyrion's pie? This is like Sherlock Holmes walking into the parlor to find the lord of the manor dying with a knife in his back, and with his dying breath the lord says "it was the maid," but instead you insist that it was the butler despite any and all evidence.

If Dontos doesn't know which bit was poisoned, why does he specifically reference the pie? Everybody else instantly suspects the wine, even Sansa (and I think Allerie?). Why would they use a poison called the strangler if they didn't mean for it to look like a choking? You can't choke on liquid. And why would they want it to look like a choking if their intent was to frame Tyrion for murder? Again, none of this adds up. You need to stop just accepting what people say is the truth and start applying some critical thinking to ascertain what is the actual truth.

And if for some reason Sansa does not tell the truth about Joffrey and maintains the bit about how comely and polite he is? What then? Now is Lady Olenna going to back out of the deal? And did LF part ways with her and say, check it out with Sansa, but if you decide not to go ahead, please don't tell the queen, or the hand, or the king, because surely that will cost me my head? LF is not going to broach this subject unless and until he is absolutely sure she will be on board. The idea that they would leave it as contingent upon confirmation by Sansa is utterly ludicrous.

Um, no, the antler men were most definitely traitors, conspiring to get Joffrey killed. Nobody thinks their punishment was harsh or cruel. Nobody gives them a second thought. This is what happens when you play the game of thrones and lose.

These duels to the death never take place. No one ever mentions them. No one laments poor lord whatever who died for Joffrey's amusement. This is all 13yo bluster.

Joffrey does not go around all day beating and tormenting people at random just for fun. Every cruel act had a reason behind it.

The chalice is "practically in her lap" according to Tyrion. She is standing right in front of it. Utterly impossible for her not to see Garlan or anyone else suddenly reaching up to it and then back down. In this case, absence of evidence is evidence of absence. It didn't happen.

Garlan using poison to kill his king, a weak 13yo boy would not be honorable, and Garlan is as honorable a knight as they come. This is the man who donned Renly's armor and waded into the thickest part of the battle to slay countless foes. Does this sound like a coward? He is not a poisoner. Lady Olenna is, but she can only do the pie, which is right where she happens to be standing.

Yes, Stannis is in big-time denial. What's your point?

Cersei and Robert and Jaime are not Joffrey and Margy and Loras.

Of course Olenna fiddling with the hairnet checks out. What doesn't check out is that this means Olenna then went and poisoned the wine. LF never says this. So yes, he knows she fiddled with the hairnet because she was then going to poison the pie,  because getting rid of Tyrion furthered both of their GoT goals while killing Joffrey only deprived them both of their most valuable piece on the board. Please explain how LF knowing Lady O fiddled with the hairnet proves that she poisoned the wine but not the pie.

Yes, Olenna is going to rely on the kingslayer to prevent that because she knows, and he knows, and Margary knows and literally everybody knows, even Joffrey knows, that if anything happens to Margaery the alliance is shattered and Joffrey, Jaime, Cersei and anyone else named Lannister will eventually lose their heads. Jaime has just as much at stake in keep Margaery safe as Lady O does. But again, this is not an issue because Margaery is in absolutely no danger.

Lol, how does LF know about Olenna's plan? Because it's his plan, that's how. She would be dumber than a bag of rocks to follow this cockamamie wine plan, but the pie plan is elegant, simple and has virtually no risk of capture or failure. And unlike the wine, success with the pie actually brings tangible benefits to their dynastic ambitions, while the wine, even if successful, sets them back. 

LF lied about the plan being to poison Joffrey. It is beyond abundantly clear that the plan was to kill Tyrion, but he can't tell her that because he needs her full faith and trust in order to carry out the Alayne charade, which is an extremely difficult thing to do even under the best of circumstances. You don't gain trust by saying, Gee Sansa, we tried to kill your husband but killed the king instead. Now the whole world thinks you're a kingslayer and the queen has set a price on your head that would choke an aurochs. But don't worry, sweetling, everything is going according to plan . . .

There is every reason to think the strangler dissolves in pie. It breaks apart near instantly in wine, so like any crystal it will break up more slowly in hot, moist pie filling, just like a crystal of salt of sugar would. We even see the smudge in the setting afterward, meaning it started to dissolve just with the heat from Sansa's head and the oils in her hair. But even if you insist there must be wine, just read the text. Joffery starts choking after washing the pie down with wine, so there's it is, right in his mouth. And five seconds after this, he starts choking, just like Cressen.

And there is no way a purple poison would be detected in the filling of pigeon pie. Pigeon pie is not chicken pot pie, all white meat and creamy yellow gravy. It's dark brown to purplish to begin with, full of dark, oily pigeon meat. It's really quite disgusting. And since there is a top layer of crust, the victim would not even see the filling, which, BTW, would not be all that stained anyway because of the time it would take to dissolve the whole crystal.

Now let's look at the facts of the wine: Joffrey's one crystal was enough to turn the contents of the chalice "deep purple" and it still took Joff some 25 seconds to drop. Cressen's "flake" of a crystal worked five times faster, so going by the logic of the wine theory, it had enough poison to turn that half-cup of wine five times deeper than deep purple. So even if you hold to the unlikely assertion that Cressen just didn't see this, despite being in a well-lit room and looking into a normal-sized goblet, then anybody who is trying to kill a high target victim with this stuff would have to count on them not looking into their cup at all, because it would surely a full crystal in a half-cup would turn it pitch black. And in that case, nobody would use this poison in crystal form, they would crush it up into a fine powder, and the delivery medium most certainly would not be wine because it is too easily detectable. Conflict, conflict, conflict, conflict.

The contingency plan? What's the contingency, Olenna backs out and rats Littlefinger out to the queen?

Of course LF would know that Sansa would be married off to a Lannister, immediately. He's not an idiot. So all while he is getting this "cred", which he already has since they just made him Lord Paramount of River and Vale, he is jeopardizing the plan that he has spent months preparing? Um, no. This is what provided Olenna with the motive to kill Tyrion, all orchestrated intentionally by LF. And I suspect it's because his first choice of poisoner has been asking to attend the feast for weeks now, but Tyrion won't let her.

Sansa is highly suspicious of the Tyrells. She doesn't understand why they don't fear Joffrey the way she does, so either they are intentionally deceiving her or they are idiots. Either way, they are not people she should trust her life with. So yes, she is confused, which LF could have taken advantage of if he didn't have another very good reason to wed her to a Lannister.

I explained the questioning about Joffrey in another post. Read that and get back to me.

She is not scheming with LF at the time of the dinner with Sansa. That's just your head canon. As I explained several times now, the delivery of the hairnet in no way suggests that Lady O was part of this plot at this time any more than the delivery of the letter to Sansa's room suggests she was in on it way back then.

Not only does Tyrion know LF lied about the dagger, but he is Master of Coin now. He is on the path to unravel all of LF's embezzlement schemes that has half or more of the crown's debt sitting in his own account at the IB. Tyrion is perhaps the one person in the entire capital with the wits to figure this all out. He has to go. I explained Lady O's rationale in another post. Read that and get back to me.

At the time the poison was delivered, Tyrion was probably not the target. Nobody even thinks he's still alive, let alone will be wed to Sansa soon. So the hairnet, as I said, was merely to ensure that Sansa, the poison and the eventual poisoner and target will be at the same place at the same time, most likely the wedding. So by the time Tyrion and Lady O fill in the last two places, the plan is put in motion. Remember, they don't just need to kill Tyrion, they need to create a diversion to get Sansa out without little birds seeing. This can't happen if they just kill Tyrion in his apartments.

No one knows the specifics of what anyone might do. But they do know that Joffrey does not just go around hurting and torturing people for no reason. Cross him and you'll get it, but Margaery is smart enough not to cross him. Joff will be surrounded by flatterers and fools, and she will be the top flatterer. She will laugh at all his jokes, smile at all his cruelties (just like she did at the wedding when he dumped the wine on Tyrion), and whisper sweet little conspiracies in his ear to replace all his support in King's Landing with her own, so that when the time comes to remove him she can do it safely, with no witnesses and no suspicions. She's a tough chick, and smart.

He quite explicitly says "I make no promises because I have two more books to write." No promises means no promises. Get ready to have your head spun around.

The Lords Declarant saw through the Alayne story the moment they asked her how old she is. Her whole backstory is a blatant, obvious lie, and everybody, LF included, knows it, except Sansa.

Margaery is more than capable of staying on Joffrey's good side for as long as it takes. Joffrey's hatred of Sansa started on the Trident, but it continued all through Kings when she mocked him and belittled him practically every time she opened her mouth, because she is so naïve that she has no idea what she's doing or what's she's saying until it's too late. Let's play a little game. Read this passage and tell me why the crowd laughs at the end:

Quote

The older man in white spoke to Sansa gently. "Ofttimes, Ser Ilyn frightens me as well, sweet lady. He has a fearsome aspect."

"As well he should." The queen had descended from the wheelhouse. The spectators parted to make way for her. "If the wicked do not fear the King's Justice, you have put the wrong man in the office."

Sansa finally found her words. "Then surely you have chosen the right one, Your Grace," she said, and a gale of laughter erupted all around her.

 

Um, no, Joffrey said "bring me his head" and everyone was caught completely off guard, save perhaps for Slynt. This was not the plan. The plan was for Joffrey to pardon Ned and let him take the black. You are most certainly entitled to your own opinions but not your own facts. The facts are that Joffrey was supposed to issue a pardon.

Sansa as Lady of Highgarden can do all kinds of things to screw with House Tyrell, just like Cersei screws with House Baratheon and the ruling Baratheon dynasty. Just like Lady Olenna most likely killed her own husband to take control and berates and hectors her son into doing what she wants.

Yes, the Reach is a low-lying fertile (meaning rich) area with kingdoms on all sides, wide open of invasion and conquest. And yet virtually all of the invasions and warfare and rising/falling petty kings took place in the Riverlands. Why do you suppose that is?

All the great houses are in competition with each other, both for the favor of the king and, in certain times, with each other militarily. The mere fact that there is a bloc of intermarried great houses that could swamp the Reach's levies if push came to shove is cause for extreme concern, given that this situation has not existed for, well, ever. Think of it as if Russia were to suddenly gain control of Mexico, Canada, Western Europe and Japan. Would the United States just shrug and say, there's no reason why anyone would attack us? This is the kind of shift to the balance of power that has just taken place on Westeros, disrupting a system that had favored Highgarden for 5,000 years or more.

Genna Lannister is married to Emmon Frey, who's being tapped to become the next Lord of Riverrun, which makes Genna the next Lady, and Lyonel, Tywin's nephew, is heir. This puts Tywin's family on the high seats of Casterly Rock, Winterfell, Riverrun, Storm's End and the Iron Throne -- more than enough to dominate the Tyrells.

The Tyrells have ruled the Reach for 300 years. That's a brief moment compared to the other great houses whose legacies date back to the dawn age. They have cemented their hold the same way the Gardeners did, through marriage. But they've been marginalizing the Florents in order to prevent them from winkling their way to Highgarden. Look at the family tree: Tyrells married to Redwynes, Hightowers, Tarleys, Fossoways, Beesburies . . . but no Florents. This is one of the reasons they oppose Stannis: his Florent wife would use her authority as queen to undo all of this. She can do that as queen, just like Queen Alysanne did.

If future Lannisters are smart, they will reinforce these marriage alliances generation after generation, just like the Tyrells and Gardeners have done. Yes, this power bloc has the potential to "last forever" as far as Lady O is concerned.

The north will become part of the Lannister power bloc. Tyrion, and later his son, will most definitely march to defend this bloc because they are all family. And the north is chock full of wood, ore, stone, furs and all the other things needed to support a war machine, not to mention it can field an army of 20,000 if necessary, and it has a port on the Narrow Sea directly across from the wealthiest, most active trading port in Essos -- something that neither the Reach nor the westerlands has but has the capability to dramatically expand the wealth and power of whomever controls it.

Hostages are for ensuring the good behavior of your lords. It is literally the reason why feudal houses foster their children with each other. Why do you think Theon was brought to Winterfell? For his good company? Why do you think Dany has the children of the Meereen great masters? Did you miss all that discussion about what to do with them if the Sons of the Harpy don't stand down? This is what hostages are for.

The implication is that Joffrey molested Tommen. That's why he had to "go away inside." That's not necessary with simple bullying.

Bread or head, it doesn't matter. They were storming the gate. And the only reason they were starving is because the Tyrells were blocking their food. So much for them being so caring and benevolent to the smallfolk.

Neither Tyrion nor Lady O are a 13yo boy suddenly thrust into a position of supreme authority with armies marching across the land intent on smashing down your city and putting your head on a spike. And it was more than just a shit-throwing. Sandor hadn't even made a move before the crowd surged forward. It was actually Bywater and the goldcloaks who made the first move in response, and they were quickly overwhelmed.

You can predict future behavior from past behavior. Joffrey has never harmed a highborn maid other than Sansa, and he had reasons for Sansa. There is no reason to think he will harm Margaery, no suggestion that anybody thinks he will harm Margaery (other than Sansa, who misinterprets everything), and no reason why they should kill him even if he does start harming Margaery. This is a theory with absolutely nothing to support it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ran]

Interesting thread.

I will say that Joffrey's abusive nature was not just expressed in Sansa, but also in what Tommen hinted at when speaking with Jaime. I think it highly unlikely to suppose he would not be capable of abusing Margaery. He was let loose on Sansa, in a way Joffrey would not be on Margaery to begin with... but the fact that as age and accrued power brought fewer and fewer restraints, who's to say? What is quite clear was that he was given to cruelty and sadism and he practiced those things when there was little to nothing to oppose him. 

As to Mace, I think he was not open to hearing a narrative that spoke against marrying Margaery to Joffrey. To the degree that Littlefinger gilded the lily, it was because it hastened the alliance moreso than that it was necessary to acquire the alliance, IMO. Though, it's true, if he just told them how horrible Joffrey was all the time, that would have thrown a kink in the works. But it's not like Littlefinger could do that openly, nor did he want to, since the whole point of his duplicity was to affect the alliance while finding a secret ally to help him sow more chaos down the line.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Interesting thread.

I will say that Joffrey's abusive nature was not just expressed in Sansa, but also in what Tommen hinted at when speaking with Jaime. I think it highly unlikely to suppose he would not be capable of abusing Margaery. He was let loose on Sansa, in a way Joffrey would not be on Margaery to begin with... but the fact that as age and accrued power brought fewer and fewer restraints, who's to say? What is quite clear was that he was given to cruelty and sadism and he practiced those things when there was little to nothing to oppose him. 

As to Mace, I think he was not open to hearing a narrative that spoke against marrying Margaery to Joffrey. To the degree that Littlefinger gilded the lily, it was because it hastened the alliance moreso than that it was necessary to acquire the alliance, IMO. Though, it's true, if he just told them how horrible Joffrey was all the time, that would have thrown a kink in the works. But it's not like Littlefinger could do that openly, nor did he want to, since the whole point of his duplicity was to affect the alliance while finding a secret ally to help him sow more chaos down the line.

Over time, I think Joffrey and Margaery would have become a reprise of Aerys and Rhaella.