The fall of King's Landing

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

My theory is a simple one about how King's Landing will ultimately fall, and it won't be from Dragons or the Others, but because Cersei is an incompetent ruler who will cause a famine. We know that before Tyrell help, King's Landing was nearly starved. We have the bread riots and general discontent from the commons. One of the reasons they were able to survive was because they had assistance from two major Crown's land houses, The Stokeworths and the Rosbys.

"Lord Gyles kept them well supplied in the castle. Half of the food they ate these days came from his lands or Lady Tanda's. Rosby and Stokeworth lay near the city to the north, and were yet untouched by war."

Cerise's mishandling of trying to kill Bronn and also making his wife Lollys the new lady Stokeworth has effectively made this house, and potential source of food, hostile. They may not be in open rebellion, but they certainly don't seem likely to provide any assistance in the future. Cersei lord treasurer, Gyles Rosby has also died, and Cerise is herself suspicious of the cause of death. You know who may also be suspicious and possibly even suspect Cersei? The unnamed ward of Rosby, theorized by many to be Olyvar Frey, Robb Stark's former and highly loyal, squire. Maybe this one isn't Cersei fault, but it wouldn't have been a problem if Cersei had not impulsively added him to her council.

I think the destruction of Baelor's Sept will happen much as it did in the show, or if not, I think Cersei will be outplayed by the Tyrells and facing defeat will make a similar act of evert hostility that will permanently make the Tyrells and the Reach her enemy, because at the end of the day Cersei is spiteful and dumb enough to do that. 

So we have very little promise of food coming into the city, and Winter is Coming.

Also she can't borrow any money for food because she alienated the Iron bank.

Hopefully there isn't some entity capable of raising a million dead people or anything, am I right?

[Rondo]

Greyscale is coming.  The religious nutters running around will provoke Cersei into further violence.  

[Fool Stands On Giant’s Toe]

Oh my! A new thought.  

Made me think of all the excessive foraging that went on. Especially from the Mountain and his men.  Was this hoarding of food done with another purpose then feeding armies? Financial gain? An increase in sales of “Bowls of Brown”? A starvation siege tactic of a region? To allow someone to put “food on the table”of King’s Landing therefore making a hospitality issue? 

[The Commentator]

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

My theory is a simple one about how King's Landing will ultimately fall, and it won't be from Dragons or the Others, but because Cersei is an incompetent ruler who will cause a famine. We know that before Tyrell help, King's Landing was nearly starved. We have the bread riots and general discontent from the commons. One of the reasons they were able to survive was because they had assistance from two major Crown's land houses, The Stokeworths and the Rosbys.

"Lord Gyles kept them well supplied in the castle. Half of the food they ate these days came from his lands or Lady Tanda's. Rosby and Stokeworth lay near the city to the north, and were yet untouched by war."

Cerise's mishandling of trying to kill Bronn and also making his wife Lollys the new lady Stokeworth has effectively made this house, and potential source of food, hostile. They may not be in open rebellion, but they certainly don't seem likely to provide any assistance in the future. Cersei lord treasurer, Gyles Rosby has also died, and Cerise is herself suspicious of the cause of death. You know who may also be suspicious and possibly even suspect Cersei? The unnamed ward of Rosby, theorized by many to be Olyvar Frey, Robb Stark's former and highly loyal, squire. Maybe this one isn't Cersei fault, but it wouldn't have been a problem if Cersei had not impulsively added him to her council.

I think the destruction of Baelor's Sept will happen much as it did in the show, or if not, I think Cersei will be outplayed by the Tyrells and facing defeat will make a similar act of evert hostility that will permanently make the Tyrells and the Reach her enemy, because at the end of the day Cersei is spiteful and dumb enough to do that. 

So we have very little promise of food coming into the city, and Winter is Coming.

Also she can't borrow any money for food because she alienated the Iron bank.

Hopefully there isn't some entity capable of raising a million dead people or anything, am I right?

The Tyrells are important allies but that ends if Marge dies.  Cersei will fall into the same mental hiccup that felled Roob when he alienated the Freys.   

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

My theory is a simple one about how King's Landing will ultimately fall, and it won't be from Dragons or the Others, but because Cersei is an incompetent ruler who will cause a famine. We know that before Tyrell help, King's Landing was nearly starved. We have the bread riots and general discontent from the commons. One of the reasons they were able to survive was because they had assistance from two major Crown's land houses, The Stokeworths and the Rosbys.

"Lord Gyles kept them well supplied in the castle. Half of the food they ate these days came from his lands or Lady Tanda's. Rosby and Stokeworth lay near the city to the north, and were yet untouched by war."

Cerise's mishandling of trying to kill Bronn and also making his wife Lollys the new lady Stokeworth has effectively made this house, and potential source of food, hostile. They may not be in open rebellion, but they certainly don't seem likely to provide any assistance in the future. Cersei lord treasurer, Gyles Rosby has also died, and Cerise is herself suspicious of the cause of death. You know who may also be suspicious and possibly even suspect Cersei? The unnamed ward of Rosby, theorized by many to be Olyvar Frey, Robb Stark's former and highly loyal, squire. Maybe this one isn't Cersei fault, but it wouldn't have been a problem if Cersei had not impulsively added him to her council.

I think the destruction of Baelor's Sept will happen much as it did in the show, or if not, I think Cersei will be outplayed by the Tyrells and facing defeat will make a similar act of evert hostility that will permanently make the Tyrells and the Reach her enemy, because at the end of the day Cersei is spiteful and dumb enough to do that. 

So we have very little promise of food coming into the city, and Winter is Coming.

Also she can't borrow any money for food because she alienated the Iron bank.

Hopefully there isn't some entity capable of raising a million dead people or anything, am I right?

I can easily see Aegon taking King's Landing now that the Tyrells are preoccupied with the ironmen. But there is also the possibility that the raiding up the Mander is a feint and Euron means to strike for KL as well, which should set up an interesting confrontation. It seems to me that all of this will come to a head long before Cersei has fouled things up with the Tyrells to the point where they cut off the food supply again.

And I agree that we probably haven't heard the last of our lovable rogue sellsword, but I think his influence will extend beyond just Stokeworth. Rosby is up for grabs, and the Stokeworths have some kind of claim there as well. Plus there is little widowed Ermesande Hayford, who has some very nice lands and a castle untouched by the war. If he plays it right, Bronn could wind up with a nifty little fiefdom that could have great influence over who sits the Iron Throne.

[Rose of Red Lake]

I think Cersei survives Aegon and JonCon (she is more ruthless than either). The Golden Co switching sides and breaking a contract for the first time in forever makes me think they'll switch to Cersei after Aegon is dead. They won't want to join Dany if she kills Aegon and what better way to piss Dany off than to have these so-called dragon loyalists oppose her? It's juicy betrayal.

[Mister Smikes]

King's Landing is going to explode.  It's got a ticking time bomb underneath it in the form of Aerys' hidden wildfyre caches, which Jaime did not bother to warn anyone about.   A dragon battle will probably be the trigger.  Or maybe Cersei will deliberately set off one wildfyre cache, and accidentally set off the entire city.

[Loose Bolt]

10 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I think Cersei survives Aegon and JonCon (she is more ruthless than either). The Golden Co switching sides and breaking a contract for the first time in forever makes me think they'll switch to Cersei after Aegon is dead. They won't want to join Dany if she kills Aegon and what better way to piss Dany off than to have these so-called dragon loyalists oppose her? It's juicy betrayal.

Main problem is that Cersei had made Iron Bank as her enemy. Or GC should know that her regime will have huge problems and she has tendency not to pay her bills. After all mercenaries do not work for free and I assume that they would not want to make suicide by dragon either.

[Rose of Red Lake]

16 minutes ago, Loose Bolt said:

Main problem is that Cersei had made Iron Bank as her enemy. Or GC should know that her regime will have huge problems and she has tendency not to pay her bills. After all mercenaries do not work for free and I assume that they would not want to make suicide by dragon either.

I think they might care more about restored titles  and lands in Westeros than gold. They're already fighting on the side without a dragon when they decided to follow Aegon's plan to leave Dany in the dust. 

[Loose Bolt]

2 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I think they might care more about restored titles  and lands in Westeros than gold. They're already fighting on the side without a dragon when they decided to follow Aegon's plan to leave Dany in the dust. 

Members of GC would gain titles and lands if their candidate could either gain or keep his/her crown so almost certainly they would not support Cersei who has 0 dragons and lost support of Tyrells and many of her other nominal bannermen, like Freys and Boltons, are not very trustworthy. Besides Cersei had gained bad reputation of being a ruler who does not pay back his debts. Or her chances of winning war against invading Dany would be very low and Cersei cannot be trusted to keep her promises.

 In fact I assume that when Dany comes to Westeros with her dragons Golden Company either turn their cloaks and kneel to her or they run back to Essos without trying to fight against her dragons. Naturally assuming that they do not have somehow gained their "own" dragon.

[Rose of Red Lake]

7 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

Members of GC would gain titles and lands if their candidate could either gain or keep his/her crown so almost certainly they would not support Cersei who has 0 dragons and lost support of Tyrells and many of her other nominal bannermen, like Freys and Boltons, are not very trustworthy. Besides Cersei had gained bad reputation of being a ruler who does not pay back his debts. Or her chances of winning war against invading Dany would be very low and Cersei cannot be trusted to keep her promises.

 In fact I assume that when Dany comes to Westeros with her dragons Golden Company either turn their cloaks and kneel to her or they run back to Essos without trying to fight against her dragons. Naturally assuming that they do not have somehow gained their "own" dragon.

Dany also has a reputation for not keeping her word and she will have a reputation for abandoning cities and leaving projects unfinished. But what would really make them switch sides is if Danny kills Aegon. They're not going to kneel to her after that. Dany won't be getting a free army easy peasy again, those days are over and now things are going to get harder for her because she made the choice to pull out prematurely in Meereen and go to Westeros. If she's going to burn down King's Landing she needs betrayals and one great way to do that is have people, and the most reputable sellsword company in the world, choosing Cersei over her.

[Loose Bolt]

1 hour ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

Dany also has a reputation for not keeping her word and she will have a reputation for abandoning cities and leaving projects unfinished. But what would really make them switch sides is if Danny kills Aegon. They're not going to kneel to her after that. Dany won't be getting a free army easy peasy again, those days are over and now things are going to get harder for her because she made the choice to pull out prematurely in Meereen and go to Westeros. If she's going to burn down King's Landing she needs betrayals and one great way to do that is have people, and the most reputable sellsword company in the world, choosing Cersei over her.

Mercenaries almost certainly would not accept suicide missions and supporting Cersei would mean that they would have to engage with 3 dragons and whatever other forces Dany could bring to Westeros.

So assuming that leaders of Golden Company are sane they would not take so huge risk. After all mercs are not mythical samurai who would die to avenge their dead masters. But I see them as veteran warriors who understand when to fight and when to run. Or if Golden Company want to stay in business they would not challenge Dany and her dragons.

[Hippocras]

Would have been likely, except Euron is going to save her (heroic guy that he is, I know).

Yes, Cersei will lose the Tyrells, but in the meantime the Tyrells are busy losing the Reach. Euron has secured the end of the Mander. He is about to take Oldtown and destroy the Redwyne fleet. Once that is done he is free to raid up the Mander and all over the Westerlands without substantial opposition. Except he won't raid the Westerlands. Instead he will use that threat and his stranglehold on food from the Reach (with the Riverlands in ruin and the Stormlands in enemy hands) to force Cersei to marry him. She won't be all that against it really because he is her type: She likes mean, bold and sexy, and will be thrilled that he basically destroyed the Tyrell power base. I don't know if this would happen before or after Tommen's death but my guess would be after. Euron is Cersei's ticket to continuing her illegitimate reign of terror.

[SeanF]

Actually, I could see both Cersei and the surviving Tyrells gravitating into Dany's camp, not because of any great affection for her, but because of what fAegon/Arianne, Jon Connington and the Dornish have done to them.  I'm expecting Tommen, Myrcella, Margaery and her cousins to all fall victim to Connington's and the Sand Snakes' desire for revenge and/or Varys's machinations.  Connington is very much of the view that only the murder of Robert's children can make up for the murder of Rhaegar's.  The Sands can't wait to get their hands on Tommen, either.