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[Week]

4 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

Week -- thanks for your concern, but there's no confusion here about what free speech means to me re to the God Emperor. Correspondigly, I don't want to see my ideological opponents marginalized.

As Lindy wrote on Twitter, "Don't leave...Don't cede...This is our ... town square, too."

I'd love to have my cake and eat it to -- unfortunately reality comes fast. You don't seem to grasp the hypocrisies of your positions. Or don't care as long as you're getting the outcome perceived as most beneficial to your ideological brethren.

[Wade1865]

2 minutes ago, Week said:

I'd love to have my cake and eat it to -- unfortunately reality comes fast. You don't seem to grasp the hypocrisies of your positions. Or don't care as long as you're getting the outcome perceived as most beneficial to your ideological brethren.

Week -- I just reviewed my position and found no hypocrisy. And yes, reality comes fast, as Parag and Ned have recently experienced.

[DireWolfSpirit]

I currently wouldnt view Twitter as a strong buy.

On average, Wall Street analysts predict that Twitter's share price could fall to $46.37 by Oct 6, 2023. The average Twitter stock price prediction forecasts a potential downside of 12.15% from the current TWTR share price of $52.78. What is TWTR's Earnings Per Share (EPS) forecast for 2022-2024?

I have no shits to give over it as a platform, have never used it or Meta/FB.

[Kalnestk Oblast]

It's not going to be a strong buy because it's going private. I believe right now it's delisted. 

[Paxter]

Haha this thread went in an interesting direction.

Back to the broader market, we continue to get a nice Fall bounce, notwithstanding some poor individual Tech performances. I’d expect this surge to continue through the end of the year, particular after the Rs likely success in the Midterms. Next year will likely see us test the ‘22 market lows again as the economy starts to stutter on the back of a higher real interest rate.

ETA: Surprised at no comments on the Meta horror show.

Edited October 28, 2022 by Paxter

[maarsen]

21 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Haha this thread went in an interesting direction.

Back to the broader market, we continue to get a nice Fall bounce, notwithstanding some poor individual Tech performances. I’d expect this surge to continue through the end of the year, particular after the Rs likely success in the Midterms. Next year will likely see us test the ‘22 market lows again as the economy starts to stutter on the back of a higher real interest rate.

ETA: Surprised at no comments on the Meta horror show.

I don't use or invest in Meta or Twitter. Their business model involves pleasing advertisers and users. Considering the users of both, neither would be a buy at any price. I think  Elon just managed to set fire to 44 billion dollars. Twitter was barely profitable with decent moderation of content. 

[Wade1865]

3 hours ago, Paxter said:

Haha this thread went in an interesting direction.

Back to the broader market, we continue to get a nice Fall bounce, notwithstanding some poor individual Tech performances. I’d expect this surge to continue through the end of the year, particular after the Rs likely success in the Midterms. Next year will likely see us test the ‘22 market lows again as the economy starts to stutter on the back of a higher real interest rate.

ETA: Surprised at no comments on the Meta horror show.

Paxter -- it's been fascinating to watch this nightmare in real time. Not just Meta, but the financials; and yet the market keeps going up, which was not what I expected. There's a game being played, but I don't know what it is or who is playing it. Although I'm confident you're right that we're seeing a bounce, the process is unnerving (but in a good way, like watching The Ring).

***

These past two weeks have turned my current stock market holdings from a low of -14% to +1%, with a cumulative time-weighted return of +18%. This wasn't anticipated, wasn't ideal, and wasn't rational! Worse, greed found me and I dipped my toes into tech for the first time -- AMZN, up by +6% and still increasing after hours -- when I noticed it drop into the low-90s. I'm not sure how long I'll hold it; I'll probably ride the inevitable downtrend for as long as needed, then double- or triple-down into it before it recovers again.

My worry was this market would leave me behind before I could liquidate all real estate holdings, but this bounce gives me additional time to relocate capital into the stock market before it reaches its actual bottom. I cannot emphasize enough just how exciting it's been.

[Wade1865]

4 hours ago, maarsen said:

I don't use or invest in Meta or Twitter. Their business model involves pleasing advertisers and users. Considering the users of both, neither would be a buy at any price. I think  Elon just managed to set fire to 44 billion dollars. Twitter was barely profitable with decent moderation of content. 

maarsen -- Mark watched Meta drop from a stock price high of $382.76 USD on 01AUG21 to $97.94. And according to Morningstar, the company was worth over $1 trillion as of last September, but is now at $263 billion in valuation. This nightmare goes beyond the current market selloff, and he's unlikely to recover unless he back off his Metaverse idea.

[Jeor]

Market bounce will depend on Fed easing the rhetoric on the December meeting. I don't think that will happen - they'll commit to staying the course and won't hint about easing back to a 0.5 rate - but even so, I think the market bounce is locked in for the rest of the year, it depends on whether it takes a pause and flattens out or whether it keeps going up and up.

Traditionally when the real economy hits the lowest point is when the market has already begun to take off on the next bull run, so I wouldn't be surprised if it stays choppy but then starts heading back up on the next bull run over the next 6 months.

I've continued drip feeding into stocks which I have done the last couple of months, cash is back down to about 15-20% of my portfolio and the cash I deployed has worked out well. But I might take another pause until we get a confirmation of direction.

[Paxter]

2 hours ago, Jeor said:

Market bounce will depend on Fed easing the rhetoric on the December meeting. I don't think that will happen - they'll commit to staying the course and won't hint about easing back to a 0.5 rate - but even so, I think the market bounce is locked in for the rest of the year, it depends on whether it takes a pause and flattens out or whether it keeps going up and up.

Traditionally when the real economy hits the lowest point is when the market has already begun to take off on the next bull run, so I wouldn't be surprised if it stays choppy but then starts heading back up on the next bull run over the next 6 months.

I don’t foresee the start of an extended bull run until central banks start cutting rates again. Hard to predict when that will happen, but I wouldn’t assume a 6-month window given the terrible starting point of sky-high inflation and ultra loose fiscal and monetary policy.

Perhaps a year from now? Until then, I’d expect us to stay within this year’s second-half trading range, with short-term fluctuations largely driven by technicals and sentiment. Certainly the current bounce has some legs to it as there aren’t many negative catalysts likely to be priced in this year.

But hey, great time to be invested. Peleton at $170 last year (!) was not. 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Paxter

[Jeor]

17 hours ago, Paxter said:

I don’t foresee the start of an extended bull run until central banks start cutting rates again. Hard to predict when that will happen, but I wouldn’t assume a 6-month window given the terrible starting point of sky-high inflation and ultra loose fiscal and monetary policy.

Perhaps a year from now? Until then, I’d expect us to stay within this year’s second-half trading range, with short-term fluctuations largely driven by technicals and sentiment. Certainly the current bounce has some legs to it as there aren’t many negative catalysts likely to be priced in this year.

But hey, great time to be invested. Peleton at $170 last year (!) was not. 

I think a central bank will blink in mid-2023, and this will probably start a chaotic period for central bankers worldwide which might be recognised in hindsight as the start of the next bull run. Of course, some think the more likely course is an overtightening mistake, potential financial crisis and further pain for equities. No one knows for sure and I guess that's why investing is a form of white-collar gambling!

I do think however that the speed and magnitude of the COVID recovery in the second half of 2020 has shown that markets and investors are now very quick to react to good news, so when the tide turns it's going to be pretty sharp. Choppy and chaotic, to be sure, big daily moves up and down, but probably in a more condensed time period than previously.

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Jeor

[Paxter]

I guess it all turns on inflation data and the potential re-emergence of the Fed put. I don’t see any blinking so long as prices are roaring along like this and financial markets are orderly (which they have largely been so far, sans gilts and some dodgy crypto).

But I’m just as likely to be wrong on this, as I was in 2020 when I predicted a long-lasting recession.

 

Edited October 31, 2022 by Paxter

[Wade1865]

On 10/5/2022 at 6:09 PM, Wade1865 said:

TOTAL. Lower, from -9% to -14%.

TOTAL. Higher, -14% to -2%. I absolutely loved the last two weeks of volatility, but none of it made any sense given my lack of development here. The chaos won't last forever, so I'm taking as much joy from the situation as I can. Until this point, I was buying for the long-term, as an investor. Now that I'm retired with more time than I need, I'm transitioning into an investor-trader. It genuinely isn't about money, but mastery over a new game that replaced an old game, hahaha.

AMZN. Lower; +6% to -6%. After holding for a short period, I considered scalping an easy gain, but decided to hold and ride the decline. When it feels right, I'll double- or triple-down as it recovers, which I'm confident will take years from wherever it bottoms out.

T. Higher; -16% to -2%.

KHC. Higher; -6%. to +6%.

WBD. Higher; -58% to -32%. This gain wasn't due to a jump in stock price but a triple-down, which reduced my losses. It can't go much lower; and with David as CEO, who's making big changes including reorienting CNN's outlook, it should imporove.

***

Time-Weighted Return (TWR). Lower; from an all-time high of +25% to +19%; DJIA, -7%; S&P, -15%; and Nasdaq, -30%. Apparently, it's a true representation of performance. I never had time to understand the stock market, so when I recently learned about the TWR, it seems I've been beating the market since 2008; based on a reckless proto-macro strategy.

[Wade1865]

On 10/30/2022 at 8:08 PM, Jeor said:

Market bounce will depend on Fed easing the rhetoric on the December meeting.

Jeor -- today's rate hike of 75 BPS resulted in the DJIA jumping by 300 before ending with a drop of 500! In the past few days I've been getting a feel of potential moderation, and Jerome said he'd contemplate something lower for December. If executed, he'd follow this up with additional hikes. Thus, he'd keep the same Sooo ... the end-state will be higher than expected, and over a longer period of time? Confusing!

Edited November 3, 2022 by Wade1865
edits in red

[Wade1865]

On 10/30/2022 at 9:55 PM, Paxter said:

I don’t foresee the start of an extended bull run until central banks start cutting rates again...

Perhaps a year from now?...

Paxter -- that's what I'm feeling, and I hope I'm right. 6 months before cuts would be good, 9-12 months would be great.

[Jeor]

On 11/3/2022 at 2:11 PM, Wade1865 said:

Jeor -- today's rate hike of 75 BPS resulted in the DJIA jumping by 300 before ending with a drop of 500! In the past few days I've been getting a feel of potential moderation, and Jerome said he'd contemplate something lower for December. If executed, he'd follow this up with additional hikes. Thus, he'd keep the same Sooo ... the end-state will be higher than expected, and over a longer period of time? Confusing!

I think Powell's trying to walk a fine line between showing he's serious about inflation while also realising these monthly super-sized rates can't go on forever. I guess the compromise is that he might think of shrinking the size of the increases while keeping up the consistency of increases over a longer period of time to get to a higher terminal rate. This second phase of rate increases would allow more visibility over the effects of the initial phase of shock and awe increases.

The stubbornly low (from an economist's point of view, not from a general public point of view!) unemployment rate is posing a problem for central banks worldwide. An economic slowdown is not going to really be achieved if unemployment continues to stay that low, so it will be interesting to see how much they push back over that.

Meanwhile, I'm thanking my lucky stars I held onto enough of my downtrending energy utility stock which has just received a takeover offer at a 50% premium to yesterday's closing price. Happy days!

 

[Wade1865]

1 hour ago, Jeor said:

I think Powell's trying to walk a fine line between showing he's serious about inflation while also realising these monthly super-sized rates can't go on forever. I guess the compromise is that he might think of shrinking the size of the increases while keeping up the consistency of increases over a longer period of time to get to a higher terminal rate. This second phase of rate increases would allow more visibility over the effects of the initial phase of shock and awe increases.

The stubbornly low (from an economist's point of view, not from a general public point of view!) unemployment rate is posing a problem for central banks worldwide. An economic slowdown is not going to really be achieved if unemployment continues to stay that low, so it will be interesting to see how much they push back over that.

Meanwhile, I'm thanking my lucky stars I held onto enough of my downtrending energy utility stock which has just received a takeover offer at a 50% premium to yesterday's closing price. Happy days!

 

Jeor -- that was helpful, thanks; cleared up some of my confusion over Jerome’s intent.

It was interesting to see how the market reacted to the mid-terms, dropping significantly. And it will be more interesting to see how it reacts to the CPI tomorrow.

I don’t understand the action-reaction patterns yet, maybe there isn’t any, hahaha.

[Paxter]

I have to say I take perverse pleasure in watching these central bankers squirm. I’ve spent my entire career dealing with smug economists at the RBA and Bank of Canada…now they are looking a little foolish: first pumping too much liquidity into a roaring economy, now potentially tightening too hard, too fast in the inevitable overheating phase. 

[Jeor]

I think the US CPI print tonight will be relatively benign. CPI is usually reported as a year-on-year thing, and last year's October reading was the first of the high readings - so mathematically this CPI figure is likely to be the first smaller number we've seen in a while. Markets might like that.

Then again, month-to-month inflation readings have been notoriously difficult to predict recently.

[Paxter]

8 hours ago, Jeor said:

I think the US CPI print tonight will be relatively benign. CPI is usually reported as a year-on-year thing, and last year's October reading was the first of the high readings - so mathematically this CPI figure is likely to be the first smaller number we've seen in a while. Markets might like that.

Then again, month-to-month inflation readings have been notoriously difficult to predict recently.

Yeah it's difficult to predict. Analysts have been talking about inflation "peaking" and the "transience" of inflation for a loooooong time now (the latter was always odd as any economic condition can be viewed as "transient" in hindsight).

What actually matters for interest rates is the level of inflation as much as how much it is rising or falling over time. And the levels of both headline and core inflation remain well outside of appetite. So, no return of the Fed put for now. 

Edited November 10, 2022 by Paxter