All about Investments!

[Tears of Lys]

13 hours ago, mcbigski said:

No time like the present, if you're secure enough now.  It's human nature to think the grass may have been greener elsewise, but if you're in a solid place now because you followed your values and better judgement, then enjoy the blessings.  

A large portion of investing success comes down to timing, which is basically luck.  Not talking about day trading, but just that someone retiring in 1999 or 2006 thinking they were set for life based on the standard rules of thumb got punched in their equity.  If you didn't have to weather the worst, then did you really save too much?  I'd argue no.

Cheers either way!

I always say, If you have the time, you don't have the money; if you have the money, usually you don't have the time.  I could add another one:  If you have the time AND the money, sometimes you don't have your health, and that's the case with my husband.  He's had six - SIX - back operations, and traveling very far is off the table.  Sigh.  

[mcbigski]

On 7/22/2023 at 1:18 PM, Tears of Lys said:

 traveling very far is off the table.  Sigh.  

Sorry to hear that's the sticking point.  I misunderstood and thought your post wasn't about health at all, just working longer than needed building wealth.

All the best to you both.

 

 

[timmett]

Just bought another CD yesterday, mostly to get the money out of a dormant checking account in a regional bank ("We're fine! Everything is fine!!"). I can't make sense of the yield spreads on these things, tho. It's a 6-month CD at 4.75% APY; the same credit union's 1- and 2-year CDs are offering, like, 1.25%. And their basic savings accounts (had to open one at $5, to join the credit union and purchase the CD) continue at 0.25%.

[Jeor]

Global markets look like they are at a fork in the road here. China's unexpected weakness (and the authorities' unwillingness to provide any major stimulus) is causing a few jitters. Evergrande declaring bankruptcy and Country Garden teetering is bad news for consumer confidence in China.

This isn't good news for the Australian share market (where the three iron ore majors make up a huge component of the index) though other markets might be a bit more isolated given a lot of Chinese debt is held internally.

But with the big run up in stocks this year, it does feel like it won't take much for some of the air to come out of the balloon. I think the rest of the calendar year is going to be a bit choppy though it might turn around again in December when the market decides the Fed really is done with rate rises.

[Jeor]

Bump...!

Rocky couple of months but the real economy is still bumbling its way along. Global interest rates look like they're roughly at their peaks but cuts are probably still a long way away. Personally I'm a bit torn; I have a bit of cash sitting on the sidelines but I'm just not convinced now is a great time to put it to work. I may regret that in a few months' time...

[Jeor]

Markets are at another turning point. Lots of comparisons to 2007 GFC with bond yields soaring, rate cuts looking less likely and everyone holding their breath to see if something breaks. The US government shutdown will possibly come into it too if it goes on longer than a couple of weeks - apparently the military won't get paid.

[Paxter]

My post from April has aged pretty well, though cash was probably the better bet than bonds:

Quote

I’m still sticking with my hypothesis from January - bounce to start the year and then hopes of a soft landing dissipating. Market P/Es aren’t looking that attractive right now. Cash/bonds look good (especially if in a tax-free or concessional position).

I don't buy into the 2007 hypothesis but I still wouldn't be surprised to see a recession and a stagnant period of earnings (bad for equities).

[Kalbear]

It's a bit confusing to me to see how cash is doing well given the high rates of inflation, especially outside the US. Is the hypothesis that it's simply doing better than being in the market at all? 

[Gorn]

High-yield savings accounts are the best investment right now. More than 5% APY, with basically zero risk (as long as you invest less than $250,000).

Edited October 5 by Gorn

[Jeor]

On 10/6/2023 at 8:52 AM, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

It's a bit confusing to me to see how cash is doing well given the high rates of inflation, especially outside the US. Is the hypothesis that it's simply doing better than being in the market at all? 

Yes, ordinarily cash would be a bad investment during a period of inflation. But when equities are vulnerable, property (particularly commercial property) is also weak, and bonds are tanking, I guess it's the best of a bad lot.

On 10/6/2023 at 7:26 AM, Paxter said:

My post from April has aged pretty well, though cash was probably the better bet than bonds:

I don't buy into the 2007 hypothesis but I still wouldn't be surprised to see a recession and a stagnant period of earnings (bad for equities).

Well picked, @Paxter!

There are definitely some headwinds coming up. The odds of a US government shutdown are still very high given the Speaker shenanigans, we now have more geopolitical instability (Middle East) and with bonds going down the toilet, I wouldn't be half surprised if there's another banking failure or financial crisis around the corner.

Currently my share portfolio is very conservative and I don't intend on changing it too much in the coming months. 40% in cash (bearing 5% interest), 20% in a global ETF. The remaining 40% is split evenly between a telco, oil/gas, bank and major rare earths miner. I'm comfortable with the first two companies, though I'm watching the bank and the mining company carefully.

[Iskaral Pust]

I’ve decided it’s time to sell my holdings of the TBT ETF (a double short exposure to long-dated US Tsy Bonds).  Yields could definitely go higher yet but it would only take some growth anxiety to pull yields back down again.  Also the daily reset mechanic of those leveraged ETFs makes it better to sell rather than hold after a period of strong momentum.

Otherwise my long term assets are all in stocks and my short term holdings have been all in cash this year.

[Paxter]

3 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

I’ve decided it’s time to sell my holdings of the TBT ETF (a double short exposure to long-dated US Tsy Bonds).  Yields could definitely go higher yet but it would only take some growth anxiety to pull yields back down again.  Also the daily reset mechanic of those leveraged ETFs makes it better to sell rather than hold after a period of strong momentum.

Otherwise my long term assets are all in stocks and my short term holdings have been all in cash this year.

Short long-dated bonds? Trade of the year contender. 

[Jeor]

With stocks they always say to hold onto your winners and let them run, but bonds and fixed income is a different game - you need to anticipate changes and make movements accordingly. Sounds like a good idea!

[Paxter]

One of those "stars align" weeks with the Fed on hold, long-term rates tanking and a lower new jobs figure. But I think this will be short lived and we will start to see the economy roll over in the next 12 months. We are at about the point now that the lagged effects of monetary policy start kicking in. 

[Jeor]

18 hours ago, Paxter said:

One of those "stars align" weeks with the Fed on hold, long-term rates tanking and a lower new jobs figure. But I think this will be short lived and we will start to see the economy roll over in the next 12 months. We are at about the point now that the lagged effects of monetary policy start kicking in. 

I agree. I think the "bad news is good news" vibe is going to come off the boil pretty soon. Yes, the jobs numbers mean that the Fed probably won't raise rates again, but conversely it also sounds like the real economy is going to start tanking soon and that's not good for anyone - and the bad news will be bad news.

[Jeor]

Oil price is really coming off the boil (which is a pity, given one of my positions is in an oil and gas producer). It seems that between geopolitical tensions which would support a high oil price, and the worsening economic outlook and demand issues which would point towards a lower oil price, the latter is winning. If this keeps up, I think it may be the canary in the coalmine that the next 12 months is not going to be a fun time.