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MLB 2022: No Pitchers Allowed


Myshkin
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3 hours ago, Argonath Diver said:

What a world it is where a baseball player turns down a $440 million contract.

And everyone agrees it would have been an underpay.

Idk if giving him half a billion dollars would be an underpay given the length of the contract. Frankly I don't get why teams offer anything more than five or six years.

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It was a 15 year contract. That's insane to me. In theory snapping him up at under 30m yearly until he's 38 would he a steal, as he's a Boras client, and if he continues his magnificent short career he'll command 40m+ a year as a free agent. 

440 over 15 years is just bonkers.  Think about Griffey Jr, who was similarly awe-inspiring in his early 20s, then suffered career-limiting injury. Or currently Kris Bryant who immediately put up superb numbers before age 25, but has been merely Pretty Darn Good since Chicago ditched him. 

I don't know whats crazier, that they'd over a colossal contract over such a stupidly long period, or that every pundit seems to agree that it was a disservice due backloading and deferring, making his AAV 20th in the league (not top 5 as befits his talent). 

He's making a huge gamble on his health and production. 

In other news, Cardinal SS prospect Mason Wynn threw a 100.5mph ball at the Futures Game tonight - to throw out a runner at first. Wow.

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1 hour ago, Argonath Diver said:

Think about Griffey Jr, who was similarly awe-inspiring in his early 20s, then suffered career-limiting injury.

Soto is 23.  Checking out Griffrey's stats for the 15 years after his age 23 season and..I mean, yeah, he had quite a few years there where he didn't play a lot of games.  But controlling for today's market value?  The contract Soto was offered totally woulda been worth what Griffey produced those next 15 years.  It woulda been a bargain, even.

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I just can't imagine being an owner having to put up all that money upfront in escrow. That's a scary investment. 

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Kumar Rocker goes to the Rangers at no. 3? Guess the Rangers ain’t too worried about his medicals. Hope he turns into a stud, just because that would be such a Mets thing to happen.

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Some meandering thoughts on Soto in the early morning because I can't sleep.

Soto is a pretty incredible hitter, but he brings no real defensive value and he can't run. I got downvoted to oblivion once on Reddit for pointing that out, but it's true. Nonetheless, the baseball world is in hysterics right now at the idea of a blockbuster trade and my Mariners are one of the few teams with the assets to make a major play for him, and I suppose they should. It would be like having a better, left-handed version of Edgar in the lineup again. But I think I might like the idea of 2+ years of Soto better than the idea of signing him long term for the 12+ years it would likely take to get a deal done. Time catches up with all of us and when I look at Soto, I don't see a body type that's likely to age all that well. I imagine he'll be a dedicated DH by age 30.

I've heard media types call him a "transcendent" player, and I'm just not sure I agree with that. I think ARod was that type of player, and Trout is now, though I think he's begun his decline. But Soto is almost certainly the best pure hitter in the game right now.

For what it's worth, the teams I think will be in the bidding are the Dodgers, Mets, and Mariners. The MLB draft started yesterday and there was some speculation that the Mets might be drafting with the Nationals specifically in mind, or even getting suggestions from them, but maybe that's BS.

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36 minutes ago, Pecan said:

Soto is a pretty incredible hitter, but he brings no real defensive value and he can't run.

Yeah I was looking up his defensive metrics yesterday and was quite surprised how poor he's been for his career - especially considering how young he is.  The Yanks probably have the ability to trade for him in terms of prospects, but that really soured me on giving up Volpe for him.

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7 hours ago, DMC said:

Yeah I was looking up his defensive metrics yesterday and was quite surprised how poor he's been for his career - especially considering how young he is.  The Yanks probably have the ability to trade for him in terms of prospects, but that really soured me on giving up Volpe for him.

They don't really, at least in my opinion. Yanks farm system doesn't have that much.

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2 hours ago, Pecan said:

They don't really, at least in my opinion. Yanks farm system doesn't have that much.

On MLB pipeline they currently have the 8th, 38th, 39th, 71st, and 72nd ranked prospects among their Top 100 - Volpe, Pereza, Dominguez, Wells, and Waldichuk, respectively.  Kiley McDaniel - admittedly someone that always favors the Yankees' system more than the other big names - had their farm system ranked 7th in February and in his updated ratings published a week ago as part of ESPN's draft guide (ESPN+ link), he had the Yanks system at 3rd, behind Cleveland and Baltimore.

If the Yanks don't have enough, then almost no team does.  Admittedly, if the Nats are looking for something like what the Tigers traded for Miggy Cabrera (and a Dontrelle Willis contract dump) - two top ten prospects in Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin - then..the only teams that have enough are the Orioles and maybe the Dbacks.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

On MLB pipeline they currently have the 8th, 38th, 39th, 71st, and 72nd ranked prospects among their Top 100 - Volpe, Pereza, Dominguez, Wells, and Waldichuk, respectively.  Kiley McDaniel - admittedly someone that always favors the Yankees' system more than the other big names - had their farm system ranked 7th in February and in his updated ratings published a week ago as part of ESPN's draft guide (ESPN+ link), he had the Yanks system at 3rd, behind Cleveland and Baltimore.

If the Yanks don't have enough, then almost no team does.  Admittedly, if the Nats are looking for something like what the Tigers traded for Miggy Cabrera (and a Dontrelle Willis contract dump) - two top ten prospects in Andrew Miller and Cameron Maybin - then..the only teams that have enough are the Orioles and maybe the Dbacks.

 

This is simply my own opinion, but I tend to discount MLB Pipeline. For the Top 100, I give more credit to Baseball America, which right now has Anthony Volpe at #16 and Oswald Peraza at #79.

You could also look at Fangraphs, where they rate prospects in each system by Future Value, or FV. In their rating they give Volpe an FV of 60 and then 50's to Peraza, Luis Medina, Jasson Dominguez, and Alexander Vargas. 

 

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8 minutes ago, Pecan said:

This is simply my own opinion, but I tend to discount MLB Pipeline. For the Top 100, I give more credit to Baseball America, which right now has Anthony Volpe at #16 and Oswald Peraza at #79.

You could also look at Fangraphs, where they rate prospects in each system by Future Value, or FV. In their rating they give Volpe an FV of 60 and then 50's to Peraza, Luis Medina, Jasson Dominguez, and Alexander Vargas. 

I don't have access to Baseball America, although I'd say they're just as biased against the Yanks as McDaniel is for the Yanks historically. 

Fangraphs haven't updated the Yanks' prospects since January.  Even then, they still had the five guys you mentioned in the top 100 with Volpe at 12, Pereza at 39, and Dominguez at 73.  I strongly suspect when those guys do an update on the top 100 the Yanks will look much better (Medina has also had a solid season, other than walks, Vargas is the only Yanks top prospect that's been a letdown this year).

As for Pipeline, I mean we all have our tastes, but I wouldn't say they're particularly biased towards the Yanks.

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