Ukraine #17: Is There Life on HIMARS?

[Clueless Northman]

5 hours ago, Werthead said:

Based on the figures I could find, the estimate was that Soviet Union had fired ~30 million shells in the entirety of WWII, so firing almost a third of that in less than five months to vastly less effect seems really stupid.

There's been serious inflation since WW2, like the US dropping more bombs on Vietnam that on the Axis. I've also seen report that Russia launched more of their advanced missiles than the US during both wars against Iraq - once again, considering the results so far, not that impressive.

45 minutes ago, Werthead said:

They still likely want to take Donetsk and declare victory, but the question of what happens if Ukraine simply ignores that and counter-attacks and starts winning is an interesting one.

The key question is: if Russia is forced into defense and Ukraine counter-attacks, will it be the final move, like Russia/USSR fighting back Napoleon and the Wehrmacht, or will it go back and forth over months and months, with Ukraine eventually overextending the counterattack and Russia eventually fighting back and gaining some ground once again? Effective military manpower is limited for both countries, and sooner or later even Ukraine might run out of able would-be soldiers.

As for who comes next, that's been the main issue for a long time. Putin isn't the most extreme of his gang, he's quite in the middle actually, and other are far worse - though I suspect they're less competent as well.

[Werthead]

Oh wow. Ukraine has launched a double-pronged offensive on the end of the line in NW Kherson. As I hoped, they've targeted Vysokopillya and, after a heavy bombardment, swept in and have surrounded two BTGs. Some reports that the envelopment is not complete and hundreds of Russians fled southwards at a rate of knots. The remaining pocket is being hammered and the Russians have asked for a "green corridor" to evacuate. The Ukrainians are not minded to give it to them, suggesting instead they can surrender.

Meanwhile, Vitali Klitschko has received a special award from ESPY:

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, Werthead said:

Oh wow. Ukraine has launched a double-pronged offensive on the end of the line in NW Kherson. As I hoped, they've targeted Vysokopillya and, after a heavy bombardment, swept in and have surrounded two BTGs. Some reports that the envelopment is not complete and hundreds of Russians fled southwards at a rate of knots. The remaining pocket is being hammered and the Russians have asked for a "green corridor" to evacuate. The Ukrainians are not minded to give it to them, suggesting instead they can surrender.

Meanwhile, Vitali Klitschko has received a special award from ESPY:

 

Any map links?  Thanks in advance.

[broken one]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Any map links?  Thanks in advance.

Yeah, I believe when I see it. As for now only Ukrainians confirmed it.

[Werthead]

8 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Any map links?  Thanks in advance.

Mostly Ukrainian sources at the moment.

The UK MoD report this morning states that a Ukrainian counter-offensive is underway in the same area, but they do not give an assessment of its effectiveness. 

Russia has also bombed civilian targets in Odesa, something they normally do in "revenge" for setbacks elsewhere.

[Toth]

1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Russia has also bombed civilian targets in Odesa, something they normally do in "revenge" for setbacks elsewhere.

And note the harbor. The very day after an agreement about allowing Ukraine's grain freighters free passage.

[broken one]

26 minutes ago, Toth said:

And note the harbor. The very day after an agreement about allowing Ukraine's grain freighters free passage

That was pretty fast, I expected that they rather would break the agreement scooping up first available convoy with grain.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, broken one said:

That was pretty fast, I expected that they rather would break the agreement scooping up first available convoy with grain.

It is at least consistent for the Russians to give the world the middle finger and break the international agreement they signed inside of 24 hours of signing it.  The Russian’s just don’t give a shit about any agreement they sign… which highlights the question… why the fuck does anyone ever sign agreements with the Russian government?

[Werthead]

6 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

It is at least consistent for the Russians to give the world the middle finger and break the international agreement they signed inside of 24 hours of signing it.  The Russian’s just don’t give a shit about any agreement they sign… which highlights the question… why the fuck does anyone ever sign agreements with the Russian government?

They are getting a taste of their own medicine though, with Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan apparently breaking the agreement they signed with Russia barely five months ago to supply energy to Europe.

[Maithanet]

This is a good thread about where the war stands for Putin politically.  Basically there is still support for the war, but it is a shallow support.  If Russians are asked to make actual sacrifices then the war could fall apart for him.  

 

 

[Wilbur]

It is interesting that several different sources are now reporting that Russia may have stripped various border areas of troops and munitions to further their war aims in Ukraine.

Here is the Ukrainian version of that report:  Day 149, July 22. Summary of Arestovych and Feygin daily broadcast • WarTranslated - Dmitri Masinski

If you are Japan or China or whomever, that could present mighty tempting target.

Particularly since Russian military motivation isn't very high at the moment:  

 

[Maithanet]

The encirclement north of Kherson seems to be less of an encirclement than a threatened pocket.  There are some Russian soldiers surrounded on three sides, and they have difficulty getting supplies in from the south.  But unless Ukraine can bring in more reinforcements, they cannot fully cut off these troops.  It's something to keep an eye on, but not a big win like we'd hoped.

[Werthead]

Looks like a concerted artillery bombardment is underway of Russian positions all along the Inhulets River. The bridge at Dar'ivka took a heavy pounding. Looks like Ukraine is disrupting the movement of reinforcements and resupply to the front in Kherson.

There's been a lot of heavy fighting not far NW of Donetsk City, and during one exchange the Russians seem to have inadvertently dropped magnesium on the city, which is under DPR control (and is their capital). It does look like nobody was hurt, which is good as that is a civilian area. However, it is interesting that the Ukrainians seem to be fighting fairly close to the capital of the DPR. Losing Donetsk City would be a fairly big deal (although the Ukrainians don't seem to be pushing for it yet).

The BBC catches two Ukrainian Su-25s attacking a Russian position near Slovyansk:

Keystone Kops moment:

 

[Wilbur]

Hierarchical war tactics versus distributed, democratic war efforts:  Inside Ukraine’s open-source war | Financial Times (ft.com)

[Wilbur]

Mark Hertling talking about the Russian forces and that "85%" number.

 

[Wilbur]

The atmosphere in Kherson is pretty lousy for the occupiers.

 

[SeanF]

I see Russia is going to try 92 Ukrainian prisoners for “war crimes”, ie shooting back at them.

They want to establish an “independent tribunal” with representatives from Iran, Syria, and Bolivia 

[broken one]

Poland passed to Ukraine unknown number of PT-91 tanks, which are Polish modification of T-72. The tank was up to date in the 90's, now it is obsolete, generally adequate to the situation on the battlefield (inferior to many Russian tanks, equals some and after all it is a tank)

First 3 AA Gepard guns from Germany arrived to Ukraine, meow! It is said the system can shoot at  infantry and light armoured vehicles too, imagine being the target 

[Werthead]

Interesting. An "Asians of Russia" organisation has been founded within Russia and has called upon the war to end. The organisation cites several greivances, including that the Kremlin is paying three times as much compensation to the families of dead soldiers from Moscow than from the provinces. Tuva and Buryatia have seen protests and complaints from families as casualties among their soldiers continue to mount.

All three bridges leading into Kherson City have been bombarded. In each case Ukraine has destroyed or badly damaged one lane of traffic, leaving one open. According to Ukraine, this is to allow civilian traffic to leave, trucks carrying food and drink to enter, but heavy tanks and heavy transport vehicles can't use the bridges.

Russian offensives on the Donbas front have stalled. An attack on Bohordychne was repulsed and no significant gains in the last few days.

Russia has conducted a limited "volunteer mobilisation" campaign in Russian territory. Murmansk, Tyumen, Vologda and Kirov Oblasts are all raising fresh troops, but apparently volunteer uptake in all territories is low. Some questions about how "volunteering" the volunteers are being.  The Wagner Group is apparently recruiting new personnel and has also transferred significant forces from Syria and Libya (however, recall that Wagner's total strength is only around 10,000 in total). Some soldiers and officers formerly "blacklisted" after being kicked out of the army for infractions have been forgiven and taken back into service on condition they redeploy to Ukraine.

Construction personnel from across Russia are being offered lucrative contracts to work in Donbas on 30-60 day contracts to help repair infrastructure.

[Kalbear]

51 minutes ago, Werthead said:

All three bridges leading into Kherson City have been bombarded. In each case Ukraine has destroyed or badly damaged one lane of traffic, leaving one open. According to Ukraine, this is to allow civilian traffic to leave, trucks carrying food and drink to enter, but heavy tanks and heavy transport vehicles can't use the bridges.

 

It is remarkable to me that this is even possible; destroying at that level of precision is remarkable.