Ukraine #17: Is There Life on HIMARS?

[broken one]

7 hours ago, Padraig said:

The Baltic and Slavic languages are part of the Baltic-Slavic branch of languages.

 

Yes, I know. And Baltic - Slavic branch, together with Germanic one, belong to Indoeuropean language family, still Balts are  separate. Nazis could have known much on linguistics, unlike genetics I think. I see the "logic" mostly as a mixture of historical resentment and pragmatism, poorly proped up with anthropometric abracadabra. Those who we want to deprive of land and property are, of course, inexcusably inferior. The rest may be left alone as useful, prone to assimilation, honorary aryan etc. Turkic Waffen SS units? No problem.

 

 

[Gorn]

10 hours ago, Wilbur said:

And to relate the Barbarossa campaign to Putin's invasion of Ukraine, I want to point out that it seems incredibly short-sighted for the Russians to expend a lot of their munitions bombing civilian installations (schools, churches, hospitals, apartments, shopping centers, etc.).

Much like Hitler COULD have made smarter choices than to try to exterminate most of the population of Eastern Europe who had a predisposition to dislike the Soviets, Putin COULD have made better decisions than flattening entire cities and engaging in terror bombings across Ukraine, and particularly Russian-speaking regions of Ukraine.

There is a strong argument to be made that targeting civilians is a waste of ammo from a purely pragmatic standpoint. With the major exception of atomic bombs on Japan, it never actually produced the desired effect in history. To quote Tom Cooper (who is a great source of analysis on this war btw):

Quote

 

Moreover, they are asking such questions like, why not use precious and rare missiles (which Russia is increasingly unable to replace) for at least trying to strike some of railway knots, or bridges, or some HQs closer to the frontline? Nope, instead, the Keystone Cops wasted them to massacre yet more Ukrainian civilians…

Now, sure: this is unlikely to make Ukrainian civilians happy. But, the last I recall, far more massive aerial campaigns targeting civilians over the last 110 years have all failed. See those of the First World War, see the British and French ‘Air Policing’ in Iraq and Syria of the 1920s, see Italians bombing and gasing Ethiopians of 1936, see all the massive onslaughts on civilians in the UK, Nazi Germany, Italy, Japan and so many other places during the Second World War…see Vietnam, even Iraq, if nothing else. Did any of that work…?

 

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-14-15-july-2022-bfea868cb7f8

[broken one]

No one has taken responsibility yet, but Antonovskiy Bridge in Kherson was attacked with artillery. It is burning.

[Corvinus85]

So Russia's latest excuse for their failings is that Ukrainian soldiers have been mutated into killing machines in secret American-run biolabs.

[Rippounet]

1 minute ago, Corvinus85 said:

So Russia's latest excuse for their failings is that Ukrainian soldiers have been mutated into killing machines in secret American-run biolabs.

Damn, you ninja'd me, I was just about to post this:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-says-losing-because-ukraine-104546288.html?guccounter=1

[Derfel Cadarn]

14 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

So Russia's latest excuse for their failings is that Ukrainian soldiers have been mutated into killing machines in secret American-run biolabs.

Just wait until America gives Ukraine a bunch of Iron Man suits.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

20 minutes ago, broken one said:

No one has taken responsibility yet, but Antonovskiy Bridge in Kherson was attacked with artillery. It is burning.

Curious, I could make an argument for either side blowing it up.

For Ukraine to cut off Kherson from Russian supply lines, thus making the recapture easier.

For Russia an admittance that they can't hold, and to make Ukrainian advances past Kherson more difficult (without the bridge).  Ofc, that's accepting that Kherson would fall back into Ukrainian hands one way or another.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

22 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

So Russia's latest excuse for their failings is that Ukrainian soldiers have been mutated into killing machines in secret American-run biolabs.

Do the Russians think anyone anywhere who isn’t already a conspiracy wacko is going to believe this? 

[Corvinus85]

1 minute ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Do the Russians think anyone anywhere who isn’t already a conspiracy wacko is going to believe this? 

Incompetent people trying to save face and add more fuel to the false flag fires.

[broken one]

16 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Curious, I could make an argument for either side blowing it up.

For Ukraine to cut off Kherson from Russian supply lines, thus making the recapture easier.

For Russia an admittance that they can't hold, and to make Ukrainian advances past Kherson more difficult (without the bridge).  Ofc, that's accepting that Kherson would fall back into Ukrainian hands one way or another.

Yeah, it is a bit silly, 99,9% these were Ukrainians.

[Maithanet]

The Antonovskiy Bridge in Kherson is going to be hard to destroy with long range artillery.  You can damage a bridge fairly easily, but actually bringing it down will require knocking down one of the supports, and that is hard to do without a lot of explosives.  If Ukraine can lob shell after shell with medium range artillery, then yes, they can bring it down eventually.

As for who did it, it was the Ukrainians.  It would make no sense whatsoever for Russia to destroy the bridge at this time, with thousands of their troops on the north side of the Dnieper. Destroying the bridge is actually a key indication that the Ukrainians are about to start their counteroffensive, and want to interfere with Russian reinforcement in the area. 

[broken one]

6 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Destroying the bridge is actually a key indication that the Ukrainians are about to start their counteroffensive,

Or that they want Russians to believe so. Make them run there and back, and make some mistakes along the way.

[Werthead]

Russia mined the bridge back in March, which is interesting.

Azerbaijan has agreed to supply Europe with gas, bypassing Russia via the new Turkey-Greece-Albania pipeline. Rumours that Kazakhstan could be on the verge of defecting from the Russian camp as well and selling energy to Europe. Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan previously agreed not to supply fuel to Europe, but both now seem to be openly defiant of Moscow.

[broken one]

16 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Azerbaijan has agreed to supply Europe with gas, bypassing Russia via the new Turkey-Greece-Albania pipeline. Rumours that Kazakhstan could be on the verge of defecting from the Russian camp as well and selling energy to Europe. Both Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan previously agreed not to supply fuel to Europe, but both now seem to be openly defiant of Moscow.

I remember reading an analysis in March, anticipating things like defiance of states from Russian zone of influence to happen if Ukraine does well. It also anticipated that Russia, sooner or later, would punish the rascals with full force 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

13 minutes ago, broken one said:

I remember reading an analysis in March, anticipating things like defiance of states from Russian zone of influence to happen if Ukraine does well. It also anticipated that Russia, sooner or later, would punish the rascals with full force 

With what spare military force?  Would creating an alliance of former Soviet States… against Russia be something that helps the Russian dictator?

[Maithanet]

Article about the impending collapse of the Russian logistics and military.

Take this with a ton of salt, but it's making the argument that Russia's logistical system has been gradually degrading since the war started, and that it is nearing the point of collapse.  This occurred outside Kyiv in March, where Russian forces couldn't get enough supplies to sustain them, and thus were basically inert, hoarding their remaining stockpiles of fuel and ammo to protect themselves from attack, but unable to act in any meaningful way. 

I hope that's right, but I think it is overstating the case.  Yes, Russia has a huge corruption problem, and has had it for decades.  When they seek to use Soviet era equipment, they find that much of it has not been maintained, has been raided by thieves and is mostly junk.  You know what other country has a huge corruption problem and found that most of it's Soviet era equipment unusable?  Ukraine.  There is some indication that since 2014 the Ukrainian military reforms have been very effective, but you cannot completely rebuild your military in eight years, particularly with Ukraine's limited budget. 

Nonetheless, an interesting read. 

[Maithanet]

Kazakhstan's GDP in 2017 (163 billion) was actually higher than Ukraine's (112 billion).  I would not have expected that. 

[horangi]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Do the Russians think anyone anywhere who isn’t already a conspiracy wacko is going to believe this? 

Reading the article, the evidence presented was that a captured soldier had Hep A antibodies and a Ukrainian minister had previously petitioned and received aid to combat Hep A with vaccines.  Even taking those statements at face value, I would hope that even the slowest of individuals would conclude that the soldier either 1) had Hep A or 2) had been vaccinated against Hep A?  But no it must be Hydra's Supersoldaten program coming to fruition.  Its like if I declared that I will screw in a light bulb in my dining room so I can have light to eat dinner, proceed to do so, and then someone else declaring the sudden appearance of light to indicate I had established a demonic pact to stop night vision goggles from working.  What I find surprising isn't that they are employing propaganda and conspiracies to shore up the effort, but that they are so incredibly lazy about it. 

[broken one]

8 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

With what spare military force?  Would creating an alliance of former Soviet States… against Russia be something that helps the Russian dictator?

Not that I want to defend that opinion, but I think what remains would be more than enough for Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has friends, incuding Turkey, but not so many as Ukraine.

[Werthead]

Apparently a Ukrainian bill to recognise Chechnya's declaration of independence (from July 1992!) is currently under debate in the Ukrainian parliament.

11 minutes ago, broken one said:

Not that I want to defend that opinion, but I think what remains would be more than enough for Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has friends, incuding Turkey, but not so many as Ukraine.

Kazakhstan has been building stronger ties with China in recent years, although cautiously. China might not welcome a Russian invasion of Kazakhstan, but it would be hesitant to get too involved.