Ukraine 18: Pump up the S-300’s… Dance Dance…

[broken one]

20 minutes ago, Matrim Fox Cauthon said:

I'm not sure it matters. I suspect for Russian propagandists, it will be used to drum up support for the war against Ukraine by depicting them as terrorists attacking civilians on their home soil. 

Some suggest it might have been done by FSB, for the purpose you mentioned. This would mean Russian propagandists are used for making propaganda up till total wear down 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Former Russian MP claims the bombing was the doing of Russian Partizans/Reistance/Terrorists (pick the word of your choice here).

[Clueless Northman]

7 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Thought, she and her dad are clearly crisis actors. Probably from the same agency that found the guys that played dead in Bucha, or the women from that Ukrainian maternity ward earlier in the war.

Where is Alex Jones when you really need him?

[Wade1865]

24 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Where is Alex Jones when you really need him?

Clueless Northman -- somewhere being punished, impoverished, marginalized for his crimes. That, and making videos. He's too much for me, but what a fascinating story.

[Wade1865]

Clearly, Russia miscalculated -- political and military failures. I'm doubting Vladimir can even hold the current lines. Now consider the economic front. Uncle Joe claims his use of (severe) sanctioning has "cratered" the Russian economy. Wounded, certainly, and will likely worsen; though, sanctions aren't as effective as they're intended to be. Nevertheless, the situation looks bleak.

+ The ruble has increased, higher than pre-invasion.

+ Unemployment hasn't spiked.

+ Energy revenues collected.

+ Retail shopping and dining shows strength.

 

- Manufacturing and transportation have crumbled.

- Corporate relocations (but some local adaptation; Stars Coffee).

- Some brain drain.

- et al.

[Werthead]

The Russian internal aviation industry is becoming increasingly alarmed at not being able to import replacement parts for their aircraft. For example, pilots are now being told to "land more gently," not to brake hard and use the entire runway when landing, because replacement brake parts and even tyres are running out quickly. The Russian airlines are going to have to start grounding aircraft towards the end of this year and the start of next.

[ThinkerX]

49 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The Russian internal aviation industry is becoming increasingly alarmed at not being able to import replacement parts for their aircraft. For example, pilots are now being told to "land more gently," not to brake hard and use the entire runway when landing, because replacement brake parts and even tyres are running out quickly. The Russian airlines are going to have to start grounding aircraft towards the end of this year and the start of next.

fast forward a year on that. A major nation with an immense geographic spread with little or no commercial airline travel - freight or passenger. And possibly military as well. Add this to essentially unavailable parts for trains and vehicles and...

...my suspicion that the breakup of Russia being a major story next year or the year after is seeming 'more possible.

[Wade1865]

28 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The Russian internal aviation industry is becoming increasingly alarmed at not being able to import replacement parts for their aircraft. For example, pilots are now being told to "land more gently," not to brake hard and use the entire runway when landing, because replacement brake parts and even tyres are running out quickly. The Russian airlines are going to have to start grounding aircraft towards the end of this year and the start of next.

Werthead -- amusing, in an ominous way. I vaguely recall my father and his colleagues (USAF, vic SEA) reminiscing on how the Soviet mindset favored simplified / ruggedized equipment and doctrine, which may explain the AK-47 and Soviet aircraft required to land on substandard runways. Nowadays, it's dazed / crippled.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I'd be surprised if they can keep their planes airworthy for that long.

Use the entire runway, don't brake so hard, land more gently? 

WTAF? Tyres and parts are per manufacturer good (certified) for that many landings. Yes, they are super conservative with their numbers. But once shit is beyond the shelf-life insurance coverage is gone, too. So suddenly Airlines are on the hook for any accident caused. But the message is pretty clear to pilots and passengers alike, fly at your own peril.

 

[Wade1865]

1 minute ago, ThinkerX said:

fast forward a year on that. A major nation with an immense geographic spread with little or no commercial airline travel - freight or passenger. And possibly military as well. Add this to essentially unavailable parts for trains and vehicles and...

...my suspicion that the breakup of Russia being a major story next year or the year after is seeming 'more possible.

ThinkerX -- I recalled your point while reading the article on the economic situation in Russia. If the country does fracture (albeit improbably, though the lack of support from former Soviet breakaways indicates ... potential) it'll be due to economic (geographic) factors. Interesting, insightful.

[Maithanet]

There are a lot of industries in Russia that are grinding to a halt as a result of sanctions.  The airline industry is one of the easiest to grasp, but virtually the entire manufacturing sector is collapsing, and much of the service sector as well.  Russia's two biggest industries (energy+mineral extraction) are still going strong because they aren't really affected by sanctions, but Russia can't get by on those alone.  The standard of living could crater just like it did in the 1990s, and that is perhaps what Putin fears most of all. 

[Werthead]

The USA is planning a new $3 billion supply order for Ukraine. This is critically different from previous support arrangements in that US military companies will now switch to building weapons, vehicles and ammo specifically for Ukraine, rather than the US sending items from stock and backfilling. Stuff from this new order will not arrive for months, but when it does it will be coming off the production line and rolling straight into Ukrainian hands.

The rest of the USA's immense military commitment (of which around half has been delivered) from stocks will continue in the meantime.

There's been a big uptick in Ukrainian Air Force operations over Donbas, with more and more attacks being carried out by Ukrainian fighters and bombers with increasingly limited fear of counter-attack. It appears that the Russian Air Force has basically given up operating outside of areas heavily defended by AA fire and out of AA range of the Ukrainian side, and increasingly Russian AA defences appear to have been destroyed or are not available even in the Donbas.

It looks like another massive Russian ammo dump has been destroyed near Rozdol'ne. This was apparently one of the largest ammo dumps meant to resupply the Luhansk military.

The US and several other countries have advised their nationals not to travel to Ukraine and to leave if they are already there and not on absolutely essential business. They fear Russia may attempt symbolic attacks on civilian buildings in the next few days, which will make the anniversary of Ukraine's independence and also six months since the war began.

[Wade1865]

10 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The USA is planning a new $3 billion supply order for Ukraine. This is critically different from previous support arrangements in that US military companies will now switch to building weapons, vehicles and ammo specifically for Ukraine, rather than the US sending items from stock and backfilling. Stuff from this new order will not arrive for months, but when it does it will be coming off the production line and rolling straight into Ukrainian hands.

The rest of the USA's immense military commitment (of which around half has been delivered) from stocks will continue in the meantime.

There's been a big uptick in Ukrainian Air Force operations over Donbas, with more and more attacks being carried out by Ukrainian fighters and bombers with increasingly limited fear of counter-attack. It appears that the Russian Air Force has basically given up operating outside of areas heavily defended by AA fire and out of AA range of the Ukrainian side, and increasingly Russian AA defences appear to have been destroyed or are not available even in the Donbas.

It looks like another massive Russian ammo dump has been destroyed near Rozdol'ne. This was apparently one of the largest ammo dumps meant to resupply the Luhansk military.

The US and several other countries have advised their nationals not to travel to Ukraine and to leave if they are already there and not on absolutely essential business. They fear Russia may attempt symbolic attacks on civilian buildings in the next few days, which will make the anniversary of Ukraine's independence and also six months since the war began.

Werthead -- and so the momentum tilts against RUS. And, unlike RUS, UKR's economy seems to be stabilizing. Credit to Uncle Joe, where credit is due. Everybody loves a winner.

[Jace, Extat]

3 minutes ago, Wade1865 said:

Werthead -- and so the momentum tilts against RUS. And, unlike RUS, UKR's economy seems to be stabilizing. Credit to Uncle Joe, where credit is due. Everybody loves a winner.

We the fucking megastore of democracy motherfuckers!

What was Biden, like sixty or seventy when the Lusitania went down? He knows the retail price of freedom.

[Wade1865]

9 minutes ago, Firebrand Jace said:

We the fucking megastore of democracy motherfuckers!

What was Biden, like sixty or seventy when the Lusitania went down? He knows the retail price of freedom.

Uncle Joe, what was Jesus like?

[Wilbur]

What does the future look like for Belarussia as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Russia’s war on Ukraine is becoming a battle for Belarus as well – EURACTIV.com

[Maithanet]

This is the first statement of its kind that I've seen that Russia is looking for a way to wind down the war in Ukraine.  Unfortunately, that can be interpreted two ways.  Either Russia is looking to end the war (which would be good) or Russia is looking to make an excuse for why they aren't advancing anymore (which seems more likely).  I think that Russia's main strategy at this point is just stalemate, and hoping that they can establish the current front line as the "new normal" just like they did in the Donbas in 2014. 

[Maithanet]

This is a good (long) thread about what a debacle this has been for Russia.  Consider the goals Russia stated at the start of the war.

1.  Confront NATO expansion into Eastern Europe/Ukraine.  Total failure, Ukraine is far more pro-west and reliant on western military than ever before.  Finland and Sweden have joined NATO.  NATO is reinvigorated in a way it has been been since 1991.  

2. Protect the Russian minority within Ukraine.  Total failure, the Russian areas with the largest Russian speakers have seen the worst of the fighting and experienced indescribable hardship.  In addition, the "Russian minority" within Ukraine has mostly sought to divorce themselves from Russia and embrace the Ukrainian national identity.  Many Russian speakers have sought to learn Ukrainian so as not to use the tongue of the "invaders".

3. Maintain influence in former Soviet Republics.  Total failure, most former Soviet Republics have refused to support the war.  Even the Kazak govt, which Russia propped up in January of this year, has sought to distance themselves from Russia.

4. Strengthen Russian position on the Black Sea.  The only success of this campaign for Russia, and even that is extremely shaky.  At the moment the Russian Black Sea Fleet is increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian missiles.  Crimean military bases keep getting bombed.  The only success is the seizure of much of the southern coast of Ukraine, including important cities like Kherson and Mariupol.  But can Russia hold them?

5. Demonstrate Russian military power to the world.  Perhaps the biggest failure of all.  Russia had done an extremely effective PR campaign on the effectiveness of its military modernization, highlighting structural changes and cutting edge planes and missiles.  But once the war started, Russia was revealed to be an utterly hollow military, unable to perform tasks the US military demonstrated in the first Gulf War 30 years ago.  Combined air/ground operations have been a disaster.  The logistical system is collapsing.  Corruption is endemic at every level.  The Russian military is relying on vast stocks of tanks, artillery and shells from the 1980s (and even 1970s) to make any gains at all.  No modern military fears such tactics, and only Russia's massive size difference allows it to (sort of) work in Ukraine. 

In summary, it is inarguable that Russia's political, military and economic position are far worse now than they were 6 months ago. 

[Werthead]

Lukashenko has congratulated Ukraine on its independence day.

Ukrainian officials suggested that maybe Belarus could get rid of him and Ukraine and Belarus could celebrate their independence day together.

Ukrainian forces have hit Russian positions around the Nova Kakhovka dam. Some indications of a combined HIMARS/air assault. We are seeing a lot more coordinated strikes involving artillery, aircraft and drones, sometimes accompanied by closer-ranged ground fire, all along the Kherson front.

According to UK MoD intercepts from Russian sources, Russia apparently believes "major" counter-offensives are imminent and they don't entirely know where. Whether that's true or Ukraine wants to scare the shit out of Russia is unclear.

There does seem to be a feeling that Ukraine really now must launch a concerted counter-offensive operation somewhere along the front, if not at Kherson then further north-east along the river or south-eastwards from Dnipro. If it does not do so in the next few weeks, the question of how the war can be resolved overall will become pressing. Ukraine really needs to start showing it can launch counter-offensives to seize and hold territory on a reasonably large scale.

[Wade1865]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

Lukashenko has congratulated Ukraine on its independence day.

Ukrainian officials suggested that maybe Belarus could get rid of him and Ukraine and Belarus could celebrate their independence day together.

Ukrainian forces have hit Russian positions around the Nova Kakhovka dam. Some indications of a combined HIMARS/air assault. We are seeing a lot more coordinated strikes involving artillery, aircraft and drones, sometimes accompanied by closer-ranged ground fire, all along the Kherson front.

According to UK MoD intercepts from Russian sources, Russia apparently believes "major" counter-offensives are imminent and they don't entirely know where. Whether that's true or Ukraine wants to scare the shit out of Russia is unclear.

There does seem to be a feeling that Ukraine really now must launch a concerted counter-offensive operation somewhere along the front, if not at Kherson then further north-east along the river or south-eastwards from Dnipro. If it does not do so in the next few weeks, the question of how the war can be resolved overall will become pressing. Ukraine really needs to start showing it can launch counter-offensives to seize and hold territory on a reasonably large scale.

Werthead -- yes; and, excepting feints, along one portion of the field to maximize concentration; like, I dunno ... a blitzkrieg ... type operation in order to maximize operational success. UKR really doesn't have a choice in this; the clock is moving toward another annexation as a [political] shaping operation, which will buy RUS space and time for future [military] operations.