Ukraine 18: Pump up the S-300’s… Dance Dance…

[broken one]

2 hours ago, mnedel said:

You do realize that they won’t be confined to Russia. This just means the Russian tourists won’t be able to travel to EU but they can still travel everywhere else. To other countries with fabulous beaches, amazing cities and sights to see and all the electronics they could ever want to buy. 

 

As for the tourists/shoppers. If they want to go to Egypt (or Serbia) to buy a washing machine, then bon voyage, but not here.

Russian oligarchy teaches the plebs it parasites on to fear and hate the rotten West, but it is the rotten West where it sends its children for studies  and invests its money. Paradox.

Quote

This proposed visa ban and the other stuff that already happened like banning Russian music, great composer, writers,

Where have it happened, except for Ukraine? Hard to blame them btw.

 

[Wade1865]

46 minutes ago, mnedel said:

Just my two cents.

mnedel — phenomenal analysis on the social and economic impacts on Russia and the EU.

[mnedel]

1 hour ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If this is really such a nothingburger please do explain the harsh and over the top reaction by Russian politicians to the possibility of an EU visas ban?

Or is the Brutal and unjustified Russian invasion of Ukraine really nothing to get excited about?  Given the actions of the Russian State is the real issue here European bullying of “Russian culture”?

Its not Russian politicians or Kremlin, it is a Russian politician – Medvedev. He has been spewing incendiary speech for months now threatening to nuke everyone for every minor thing. Wert explained this in one of his previous posts. And of course, the Kremlin allows this, they want to galvanize the anti-west sentiment in the population. So yes, it is a nothingburger.

I never wrote that the invasion of Ukraine is nothing to get excited about. All I wrote is that visa bans and similar measures will achieve exactly the opposite of what the West wants to achieve and provided some reasoning for my claims, nothing more.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

18 minutes ago, mnedel said:

Its not Russian politicians or Kremlin, it is a Russian politician – Medvedev. He has been spewing incendiary speech for months now threatening to nuke everyone for every minor thing. Wert explained this in one of his previous posts. And of course, the Kremlin allows this, they want to galvanize the anti-west sentiment in the population. So yes, it is a nothingburger.

I never wrote that the invasion of Ukraine is nothing to get excited about. All I wrote is that visa bans and similar measures will achieve exactly the opposite of what the West wants to achieve and provided some reasoning for my claims, nothing more.

The repeated Russian harrassment and physical attacks upon Ukrainian refugees in Europe… those are nothing to worry about either?

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

19 minutes ago, mnedel said:

Its not Russian politicians or Kremlin, it is a Russian politician – Medvedev. He has been spewing incendiary speech for months now threatening to nuke everyone for every minor thing. Wert explained this in one of his previous posts. And of course, the Kremlin allows this, they want to galvanize the anti-west sentiment in the population. So yes, it is a nothingburger.

I never wrote that the invasion of Ukraine is nothing to get excited about. All I wrote is that visa bans and similar measures will achieve exactly the opposite of what the West wants to achieve and provided some reasoning for my claims, nothing more.

Here’s another:

 

[kiko]

3 hours ago, mnedel said:

If someone is bulling you and demeaning things that are important to you, you will respond with anger and defiance. For example, this is exactly what happened in Serbia. Now, we generally do think about Russia as our friend and protector, but even so, lots of people where on the fence at the start of the war. Many thought Russia was exaggerating and that invading Ukraine was wrong. And then EU started pressuring Serbia, started using ever harder rhetoric, started blackmailing and basically threatening Serbia and the net result was that the support for joining EU plummeted to all time low and support for Russia skyrocketed to all time high.

Situations of crisis usually brings out your true colours. Serbia maybe needs to resolve their own past before they are a good fit for the European community. 

Out of interest, could you share some examples of this bullying? I'm sure it is definitely perceived as bullying in Serbia, but we didn't really hear of it in our media.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

2 hours ago, mnedel said:

Its not Russian politicians or Kremlin, it is a Russian politician – Medvedev. He has been spewing incendiary speech for months now threatening to nuke everyone for every minor thing. Wert explained this in one of his previous posts. And of course, the Kremlin allows this, they want to galvanize the anti-west sentiment in the population. So yes, it is a nothingburger.

I never wrote that the invasion of Ukraine is nothing to get excited about. All I wrote is that visa bans and similar measures will achieve exactly the opposite of what the West wants to achieve and provided some reasoning for my claims, nothing more.

Let’s make sure to invite this fine gentleman to the EU with a tourist visa:

 

[Wilbur]

7 hours ago, Werthead said:

They've tried that but it's not really worked. Thousands of Ukrainians deported to Russia have been simply getting train tickets to St. Petersburg and crossing the borders into Estonia, and going to third countries or even returning to Ukraine. Russia, it will shock you, did not set up any kind of infrastructure or process to actually keep track of deportees.

The family that I am helping here did something similar.  They lived in Kherson, so when the invasion happened, they escaped south through Crimea to Russia and then to freedom in Georgia.  From Georgia they were able to escape through Asia to the States via the Uniting for Ukraine visa program.

The Russian authorities had not put any protections in place to prevent this sort of escape, and similar second- and third-country escape routes were available to a couple of other families who found themselves in occupied territory at the end of February.

[Padraig]

8 hours ago, mnedel said:

You do realize that they won’t be confined to Russia. This just means the Russian tourists won’t be able to travel to EU but they can still travel everywhere else. To other countries with fabulous beaches, amazing cities and sights to see and all the electronics they could ever want to buy.  This visa ban will lead to two things:
One - Some of the Russian tourists will stay in Russia, which means their money will also stay in Russia which is a good thing for Russia. Most will just vacation elsewhere. This ban will only negatively impact EU economy. Now, I don’t think its going to be much of a negative impact as a whole but some places that had lots of Russian tourists will probably have a hard time for a while.
Two - It will increase support for Putin. Economic sanctions make sense mainly because it makes it more difficult to equip and finance the military. If the quality of life of the population is significantly impacted then the resentment towards the government will increase but, to my knowledge, this by itself has never actually caused a regime change anywhere. All the other small stuff is merely annoying and it has the opposite result, it increases support for Putin and the war. This proposed visa ban and the other stuff that already happened like banning Russian music, great composer, writers, banning Russian traditional instruments, individual athletes, changing the names of foods etc. just shows to the Russian people the West is against them, against their culture and identity. This feeds well into the narrative coming from Kremlin that the West hates and wants to destroy Russia and that they are defending themselves in Ukraine. Also, this is basic human psychology. If someone is bulling you and demeaning things that are important to you, you will respond with anger and defiance. For example, this is exactly what happened in Serbia. Now, we generally do think about Russia as our friend and protector, but even so, lots of people where on the fence at the start of the war. Many thought Russia was exaggerating and that invading Ukraine was wrong. And then EU started pressuring Serbia, started using ever harder rhetoric, started blackmailing and basically threatening Serbia and the net result was that the support for joining EU plummeted to all time low and support for Russia skyrocketed to all time high.
 Just my two cents.

An interesting alternative viewpoint but I do think its more complicated than that.

It has to be expected that countries will disagree on certain topics.  But war?  The EU viewed Russia's attack on Ukraine as a fundamental attack on its basic principles (i.e. the end of war in Europe).  The EU required a binary response from countries.  You are with us or against us.  Serbia's fence sitting did it no favours, especially as it wants to join the EU.  You might be indignant about that situation but from an EU perspective, it makes a lot of sense.  If Serbia can't get on board on even a fundamental issue like that, then what can we expect from it?

If Serbia doesn't want to join the EU, fair enough.  Nobody needs another Hungary in the EU.  (Although, I would have thought Kosovo would have a lot more impact on Serbia than Russia, but I could be wrong).

And that is the unfair part.  The EU did respond to Serbia far more negatively than it did Hungary but that only exposes a fundamental problem with the EU's structure.  Once you have joined, the EU can't force Hungary to agree to something, even if every other member wants it (although Orban is clever enough to allow certain proposals through).

It doesn't help things that Vucic is viewed quite negatively in the EU.  He is in the same bucket as Orban, although i'm sure that misses some nuance.

Quote

If the quality of life of the population is significantly impacted then the resentment towards the government will increase but, to my knowledge, this by itself has never actually caused a regime change anywhere.

On its own.  No.  But there are lots of cases where sanctions have added more pressure to regimes and they have relented in the end.  South Africa is probably the classic example (but it is never one thing) and there are plenty other examples in Africa.

Quote

This proposed visa ban and the other stuff that already happened like banning Russian music, great composer, writers, banning Russian traditional instruments, individual athletes, changing the names of foods etc. just shows to the Russian people the West is against them, against their culture and identity.

Generally that hasn't happened though.  Sure, Wimbledon banned tennis players but I think a lot of the above is exaggerated.

Besides, this whole argument is silly.  The Russian government keeps saying that the West's actions are very provocative.  Compared to what exactly?  Like, an actual invasion? 

If Russian's don't think the West has a fair reason to be angry with Russia then your list is just an excuse to justify their pre-determined viewpoint.  If not "tourism", then it will be something else.  If doesn't even have to be true since Russian propaganda can make up what it wants.

Anyhow, the ban on Russian tourists hasn't happened, as far as I am aware.  The EU may decide it wouldn't be effective.  I have no firm views on it.  I can see an argument for it though.

Quote

Many supported secession (or joining Russia) in 2014 already (and many of those who did not left in the meantime, I guess), the 8 years of Russian government and propaganda did its job too. During the years many men fought against Ukraine with weapons in their hands.

This came from @broken one in the old thread.  I meant to respond then.  I'm quite skeptical about any firm statistics on the people living under Russian rule in the Donbas.   Maybe they love all things Russian.  Maybe not.  Up to the invasion, i'm sure they got a lot of info from the rest of Ukraine though (given family and friends are bound to have remained there).  I'm sure Russian propaganda plays a role but it can only do so much.  I'm sure the armed forces in the Russian Donbas are very pro-Russian but even here, they don't seem to have been treated with a lot of respect by the Russian army.

And the people in the Donbas can see what Russia is actually doing on the ground.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  I just have a sense that its more complicated than any neat narrative.

Where I am skeptical is on the war itself.  It seems Russia is being trounced except in one way, it holds a lot of Ukrainian land and Ukraine hasn't regained anything much recently.

[maarsen]

21 minutes ago, Padraig said:

An interesting alternative viewpoint but I do think its more complicated than that.

It has to be expected that countries will disagree on certain topics.  But war?  The EU viewed Russia's attack on Ukraine as a fundamental attack on its basic principles (i.e. the end of war in Europe).  The EU required a binary response from countries.  You are with us or against us.  Serbia's fence sitting did it no favours, especially as it wants to join the EU.  You might be indignant about that situation but from an EU perspective, it makes a lot of sense.  If Serbia can't get on board on even a fundamental issue like that, then what can we expect from it?

If Serbia doesn't want to join the EU, fair enough.  Nobody needs another Hungary in the EU.  (Although, I would have thought Kosovo would have a lot more impact on Serbia than Russia, but I could be wrong).

And that is the unfair part.  The EU did respond to Serbia far more negatively than it did Hungary but that only exposes a fundamental problem with the EU's structure.  Once you have joined, the EU can't force Hungary to agree to something, even if every other member wants it (although Orban is clever enough to allow certain proposals through).

It doesn't help things that Vucic is viewed quite negatively in the EU.  He is in the same bucket as Orban, although i'm sure that misses some nuance.

On its own.  No.  But there are lots of cases where sanctions have added more pressure to regimes and they have relented in the end.  South Africa is probably the classic example (but it is never one thing) and there are plenty other examples in Africa.

Generally that hasn't happened though.  Sure, Wimbledon banned tennis players but I think a lot of the above is exaggerated.

Besides, this whole argument is silly.  The Russian government keeps saying that the West's actions are very provocative.  Compared to what exactly?  Like, an actual invasion? 

If Russian's don't think the West has a fair reason to be angry with Russia then your list is just an excuse to justify their pre-determined viewpoint.  If not "tourism", then it will be something else.  If doesn't even have to be true since Russian propaganda can make up what it wants.

Anyhow, the ban on Russian tourists hasn't happened, as far as I am aware.  The EU may decide it wouldn't be effective.  I have no firm views on it.  I can see an argument for it though.

This came from @broken one in the old thread.  I meant to respond then.  I'm quite skeptical about any firm statistics on the people living under Russian rule in the Donbas.   Maybe they love all things Russian.  Maybe not.  Up to the invasion, i'm sure they got a lot of info from the rest of Ukraine though (given family and friends are bound to have remained there).  I'm sure Russian propaganda plays a role but it can only do so much.  I'm sure the armed forces in the Russian Donbas are very pro-Russian but even here, they don't seem to have been treated with a lot of respect by the Russian army.

And the people in the Donbas can see what Russia is actually doing on the ground.  Does that matter?  I don't know.  I just have a sense that its more complicated than any neat narrative.

Where I am skeptical is on the war itself.  It seems Russia is being trounced except in one way, it holds a lot of Ukrainian land and Ukraine hasn't regained anything much recently.

Read your history. Armies once welcomed as liberators routinely end up being hated as foreign occupiers. 

[Werthead]

Dzhankoya in Crimea has been hit by two attacks. It looks like an electrical station was destroyed in the first hit and a Russian military warehouse in the second.

Interestingly, this is right on the E105-E97 route leading from the Kerch Bridge to Donetsk Oblast via Crimea. Ukraine bombed their way down the road to the north over the border a few days ago.

Some speculation that Ukraine had been hoarding its stockpile of Tochka-U missiles before getting HIMARS and other western artillery, so are now free to use their Tochka-U stockpile up (because they're clearly not getting refills from Russia). The Tochka-U's range is very borderline from Ukrainian territory to eastern Crimea though. They may have used them to distract air defences instead.

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

This came from @broken one in the old thread.  I meant to respond then.  I'm quite skeptical about any firm statistics on the people living under Russian rule in the Donbas.   Maybe they love all things Russian.  Maybe not.  Up to the invasion, i'm sure they got a lot of info from the rest of Ukraine though (given family and friends are bound to have remained there).  I'm sure Russian propaganda plays a role but it can only do so much.  I'm sure the armed forces in the Russian Donbas are very pro-Russian but even here, they don't seem to have been treated with a lot of respect by the Russian army.

Polling on the ground by various agencies seems to show that the DPR and LPR civilian population preferred living under Ukrainian rule but in some kind of federated or devolved arrangement (i.e. a Scottish solution). There seemed to be an agreement that Russian rule or proxy rule had left them far worse off than they had been prior to 2014.

Of course, it's irrelevant because the DPR and LPR were founded as bandit kingdoms with the aggrandisement of their leadership, most of them have left for Russia and been replaced by actual Russian personnel loyal to the Kremlin. And that still hasn't stopped them being treated like cannon fodder. The death toll among the DPR and LPR troops so far has been utterly horrific, trouncing both Ukrainian and regular Russian losses as a percentage of their forces. The LPR has refused to send troops to fight in Donetsk for that reason, as the losses they sustained taking most of the territory of Luhansk Oblast were unsustainable, and DPR troops refused to fight in Luhansk because the losses they'd sustained in Mariupol had been absurd, and there's a reluctance by the DPR troops to fight to even take the rest of Donetsk Oblast.

[Padraig]

2 hours ago, maarsen said:

Read your history. Armies once welcomed as liberators routinely end up being hated as foreign occupiers. 

Thanks.  And this is in response to what exactly?

[maarsen]

48 minutes ago, Padraig said:

Thanks.  And this is in response to what exactly?

I read your comment as speculation on the future of Russian troops in the contested regions of Ukraine, where a good portion of the inhabitants are Russian speaking or Russian sympathizers. If I misunderstood  the meaning I apologize.

 

 

[Padraig]

10 minutes ago, maarsen said:

I read your comment as speculation on the future of Russian troops in the contested regions of Ukraine, where a good portion of the inhabitants are Russian speaking or Russian sympathizers. If I misunderstood  the meaning I apologize.

My main point was that I didn't know what the local people in the Russian controlled Donbas are thinking (in response to broken one suggesting that they would have been brainwashed by now in favour of Russia).  I don't think anyone can be sure given the current situation.  Although Wert does have good info to think about.

I will say that while it would be comforting to suggest that the local armies from the LPR and DPR were actually full of real Russians in 2014 or today, I don't think that is true.  But they may not reflect the broader wishes of the population.  Its complicated.

[broken one]

7 hours ago, Padraig said:

My main point was that I didn't know what the local people in the Russian controlled Donbas are thinking (in response to broken one suggesting that they would have been brainwashed by now in favour of Russia). 

There was a bit more of what I said than just that. In general - I am sceptical as for possibility of reintegration for all the reasons I have mentioned (and more). And I do not claim I know what they are thinking. I just witness how public TV propaganda works on Russian speaking people who have no real alternative. Same with present Polish state TV propaganda in rural areas, it is pretty similar really.

I do not know any up to date statistics, just two polls from 1991 - initially 90% of Donbas inhabitants were against dissolving Soviet Union and later that year 70% were for joining Ukraine. Later moods changed, not in favour of Ukraine, judging by what happened in 2014. I do not have time now but I want to elaborate later on what I have learned about Donbas identity. 

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Another kind, decent, and gentle Russian tourist.  This time in Estonia:

 

[Werthead]

12 hours ago, maarsen said:

I read your comment as speculation on the future of Russian troops in the contested regions of Ukraine, where a good portion of the inhabitants are Russian speaking or Russian sympathizers. If I misunderstood  the meaning I apologize.

If you mean in the territories held by the DPR and LPR since 2014, that's a reasonable concern, although polling shows even in those regions the majority of people would prefer to remain part of Ukraine (albeit with autonomous powers) rather than join Russia.

If you mean in the areas of the Donbas seized since February, then very firmly no. Those areas were broadly split 50/50 prior to the 2014 invasion, but since then have followed the rest of Ukraine in preferring Ukraine to remain an independent country with closer ties with the west. Russian aggression actually drove those areas, which had been more swing areas, much more firmly into the Ukrainian camp. That's why the DPR and LPR were never able to muster the popular support needed to take the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk by themselves and why Mariupol, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk held out as long as they did, and are hotbeds of partisan activity resisting Russian military control.

The idea that "these people speak Russia ergo they are Russian" is the kind of absurdist logical fantasy Putin engages in.

[kiko]

31 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Another kind, decent, and gentle Russian tourist.  This time in Estonia:

 

From the translation he seems to be an Estonian. What now?

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

9 minutes ago, kiko said:

From the translation he seems to be an Estonian. What now?

I was wrong.   Not the first time.  Highly unlikely to be the last.   

Here are some lovely Russian Tourists hard at work on their vacation in Canada:

 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

@kiko

Do you speak Russian?  If not is there an app that will quickly translate spoken Russian?