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FILM AWARDS SEASON 2022/2023 (Update: Guilds' Winners, Oscar week)


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7 hours ago, Myrddin said:

Makes you wonder: do we remember him from Shannara because he did such a poor job or because he was a light in the muddled mess of a show?

From what I remember to call his performance in Shannara wooden would be an insult to trees, although to be fair he didn't have much of a script to work with.

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Producers Guild Of America (PGA) WINNERS

 

The Award for Outstanding Producer of a Feature Theatrical Motion Picture
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red

The Award For Outstanding Producer Of Documentary Motion Pictures 
All That Breathes
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Nothing Compares
Retrograde
The Territory

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SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS - WINNERS

 

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE
Babylon
The Banshees Of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Fabelmans
Women Talking

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Cate Blanchett – TAR
Viola Davis – The Woman King
Ana de Armas – Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler – Till
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Austin Butler – Elvis
Colin Farrell – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser – The Whale
Bill Nighy – Living
Adam Sandler – Hustle

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Angela Bassett – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau – The Whale
Kerry Condon – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once

OUTSTANDING PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan – The Banshees Of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Eddie Redmayne – The Good Nurse

OUTSTANDING ACTION PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Avatar: The Way Of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
The Woman King

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The Film Independent Spirit Awards - WINNERS

 

BEST FEATURE
Bones and All
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Our Father, the Devil
TÁR
Women Talking

BEST FIRST FEATURE
Aftersun
Emily the Criminal
The Inspection
Murina
Palm Trees and Power Lines

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
The African Desperate
A Love Song
The Cathedral
Holy Emy
Something in the Dirt

BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Field – TÁR
Kogonada – After Yang
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Sarah Polley – Women Talking
Halina Reijn – Bodies Bodies Bodies

BEST SCREENPLAY
Lena Dunham – Catherine Called Birdy
Todd Field – TÁR
Kogonada – After Yang
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Sarah Polley – Women Talking

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Joel Kim Booster – Fire Island
Jamie Dack, Audrey Findlay, Story by Jamie Dack – Palm Trees and Power Lines
K.D. Dávila – Emergency
Sarah DeLappe, Story by Kristen Roupenian – Bodies Bodies Bodies
John Patton Ford – Emily the Criminal

BEST LEAD PERFORMANCE
Cate Blanchett – TÁR
Dale Dickey – A Love Song
Mia Goth – Pearl
Regina Hall – Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.
Paul Mescal – Aftersun
Aubrey Plaza – Emily the Criminal
Jeremy Pope – The Inspection
Andrea Riseborough – To Leslie
Taylor Russell – Bones and All
Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once

BEST SUPPORTING PERFORMANCE
Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Brian Tyree Henry – Causeway
Nina Hoss – TÁR
Brian d’Arcy James – The Cathedral
Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Trevante Rhodes – Bruiser
Theo Rossi – Emily the Criminal
Mark Rylance – Bones and All
Jonathan Tucker – Palm Trees and Power Lines
Gabrielle Union – The Inspection

BEST BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE
Frankie Corio – Aftersun
Gracija Filipović – Murina
Stephanie Hsu – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Lily McInerny – Palm Trees and Power Lines
Daniel Zolghadri – Funny Pages

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Florian Hoffmeister – TÁR

Hélène Louvart – Murina
Gregory Oke – Aftersun
Eliot Rockett – Pearl
Anisia Uzeyman – Neptune Frost

BEST EDITING
Ricky D’Ambrose – The Cathedral
Dean Fleischer Camp & Nick Paley – Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Blair McClendon – Aftersun
Paul Rogers – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Monika Willi – TÁR

BEST DOCUMENTARY
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
A House Made of Splinters
Midwives
Riotsville, U.S.A.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
Corsage
Joyland
Leonor Will Never Die
Return to Seoul
Saint Omer

PRODUCERS AWARD
Liz Cardenas
Tory Lenosky
David Grove Churchill Viste

SOMEONE TO WATCH AWARD
Adamma Ebo – Honk for Jesus. Save Your Soul.
Nikyatu Jusu – Nanny
Araceli Lemos – Holy Emy

TRUER THAN FICTION AWARD
Isabel Castro – Mija
Reid Davenport – I Didn’t See You There
Rebeca Huntt – Beba

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD
Women Talking
Director: Sarah Polley
Casting Directors: John Buchan, Jason Knight
Ensemble Cast: Shayla Brown, Jessie Buckley, Claire Foy, Kira Guloien, Kate Hallett, Judith Ivey, Rooney Mara, Sheila McCarthy, Frances McDormand, Michelle McLeod, Liv McNeil, Ben Whishaw, August Winter

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On 3/5/2023 at 7:55 AM, Tywin et al. said:

:agree:

:lmao:

 

Nearly done watching every serious nominee for Best Picture (not bothering with Avatar 2), after having seen Women Talking. I am a bit divided on it. I think the very opening section and then the last 20-30 minutes are very powerful. But everything in between is, IMO, pretty shaky. The blunt, obvious didacticism of the script is not helped by the odd diction often used, a strange poeticism that maybe is meant to capture something of the Low German of the Mennonites, but just seems jarringly strange for a group of women who are completely illiterate and don't even know what lies beyond the boundaries of their colony. It's Sarah Polley (and Towes, the original author of the novel being adapted, I'd guess) speaking, not these Mennonite women, is the sense I get.

It also lacks any real sense of urgency in a lot of it. It's a very "dead" movie in a lot of ways, which is a shame. The way any moment of drama just ends in quiet and moving on to something else felt so strange. I remember reading the news pieces about it years ago when it first came out, and after finishing the movie I decided to read a long Vice report following-up a couple of years later, and I feel like the film doesn't live up to the potential of the horror of what happened.

Even the performers are largely flat for me, and yet it's a terrific list of performers on paper. Ben Whishaw stands out as the soft-spoken teacher who's invited to record the minutes of the women's meeting to discuss what to do, he's incredibly expressive and for me the most emotional scene in the film turned on him, which I feel like Polley could never possibly have intended.

Only Tár left, which I hope to see this week.

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3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Do not watch it in bed or on a oomphy coach unless you're pining for a great nap. 

It most certainly is not the most dynamic movie, but I was glued to the screen for whole 2,5 hours. Simply, what Cate did in that movie... A league of her own...

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1 hour ago, Mladen said:

It most certainly is not the most dynamic movie, but I was glued to the screen for whole 2,5 hours. Simply, what Cate did in that movie... A league of her own...

Blanchett was great in it though overall the movie was kind of boring. I'd recommend it, but it's not a movie that will be remembered five years from now. 

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The everything everywhere movie

And Whiplash 

Everything else is whatever 

Did Matrix 4 count? I don't care give it something something for "best first and second acts and ending but c'mon just DON'T DO THE MARVEL THING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" 

 

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10 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Blanchett was great in it though overall the movie was kind of boring. I'd recommend it, but it's not a movie that will be remembered five years from now. 

I am not so sure. I think that its open ending, the fact that we have been debating separation of art from the artist for decades now, that cancel culture is in full swing, the fact that movie can be interpreted differently. I suppose wide public across the world will not remember it, but I don't think it will die as some people think it will. 

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Producers Guild Of America (PGA) Nominations

 

The Award for Outstanding Producer of a Feature Theatrical Motion Picture
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale

The Award for Outstanding Producer of Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Minions: The Rise of Gru
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red

The Award For Outstanding Producer Of Documentary Motion Pictures 
All That Breathes
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Nothing Compares
Retrograde
The Territory

 

Directors Guild Of America (DGA) Feature Film Nominations

 

NARRATIVE FEATURE FILM
Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once
Todd Field – Tár
Joseph Kosinski – Top Gun: Maverick
Martin McDonagh – The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

FIRST TIME NARRATIVE FEATURE FILM
Alice Diop – Saint Omer
Audrey Diwan – Happening
John Patton Ford – Emily The Criminal
Antoneta Alamat Kusijanović – Murina
Charlotte Wells – Aftersun

OUTSTANDING DIRECTORIAL ACHIEVEMENT IN DOCUMENTARY
Sara Dosa – Fire of Love
Matthew Heineman – Retrograde
Laura Poitras – All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
David Rohde – Navalny
Shaunak Sen – All That Breathes

 

Writers Guild Of America (WGA) Winners

 

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Everything Everywhere All At Once – Written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert; A24
The Fabelmans – Written by Steven Spielberg & Tony Kushner; Universal Pictures
The Menu – Written by Seth Reiss & Will Tracy; Searchlight Pictures
Nope – Written by Jordan Peele; Universal Pictures
Tár – Written by Todd Field; Focus Features

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever – Screenplay by Ryan Coogler & Joe Robert Cole, Story by Ryan Coogler, Based on the Marvel Comics; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Written by Rian Johnson; Netflix
She Said – Screenplay by Rebecca Lenkiewicz, Based on the New York Times Investigation by Jodi Kantor, Megan Twohey and Rebecca Corbett and the Book She Said by Jodi Kantor and Megan Twohey; Universal Pictures
Top Gun: Maverick – Screenplay by Ehren Kruger and Eric Warren Singer and Christopher McQuarrie, Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks, Based on Characters Created by Jim Cash & Jack Epps, Jr.; Paramount Pictures
Women Talking – Screenplay by Sarah Polley, Based upon the Book by Miriam Toews; Orion Pictures/MGM

DOCUMENTARY SCREENPLAY
2nd Chance – Written by Ramin Bahrani; Showtime Documentary Films
Downfall: The Case Against Boeing – Written by Mark Bailey & Keven McAlester; Netflix
Last Flight Home – Written by Ondi Timoner; MTV Documentary Films
Moonage Daydream – Written by Brett Morgen; Neon
¡Viva Maestro! – Written by Theodore Braun; Greenwich Entertainment

 

American Society Of Cinematographers (ASC) Winners

 

Feature
Roger Deakins, ASC, BSC for “Empire of Light” (Searchlight Pictures)
Greig Fraser, ASC, ACS for “The Batman” (Warner Bros.)
Darius Khondji, ASC, AFC for “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” (Netflix)
Claudio Miranda, ASC for “Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount Pictures)
Mandy Walker, ASC, ACS for “Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

Spotlight
Sturla Brandth Grøvlen, DFF for “War Sailor” (DCM Film)

Kate McCullough, ISC for “The Quiet Girl” (Super)
Andrew Wheeler for “God’s Country” (IFC Films)

Documentary
Ben Bernhard and Riju Das for “All That Breathes” (HBO/HBO Max)

Adam Bricker for “Chef’s Table: Pizza” – “Franco Pepe” (Netflix)
Wolfgang Held, ASC for “This Stolen Country of Mine”

 

American Cinema Editors (ACE) Eddie Awards Winners

 

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (Drama, Theatrical)
All Quiet on the Western Front – Sven Budelmann, BFS
Elvis – Matt Villa, ACE ASE & Jonathan Redmond
Tár – Monika Willi
Top Gun: Maverick – Eddie Hamilton, ACE
The Woman King – Terilyn A. Shropshire, ACE

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (Comedy, Theatrical)
The Banshees of Inisherin – Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, ACE
Everything Everywhere All at Once – Paul Rogers
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery – Bob Ducsay, ACE
The Menu – Christopher Tellefsen, ACE
Triangle of Sadness – Ruben Östlund & Mikel Cee Karlsson

BEST EDITED ANIMATED FEATURE FILM (Theatrical or Non-Theatrical)
The Bad Guys – John Venzon, ACE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio – Ken Schretzmann, ACE & Holly Klein
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On – Dean Fleischer-Camp & Nick Paley
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – James Ryan, ACE
Turning Red – Nicholas C. Smith, ACE

BEST EDITED DOCUMENTARY (Theatrical)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed – Amy Foote, Joe Bini & Brian A. Kates, ACE
Fire of Love – Erin Casper & Jocelyne Chaput
Good Night Oppy – Helen Kearns, ACE & Rejh Cabrera
Moonage Daydream – Brett Morgen
Navalny – Langdon Page & Maya Hawke

 

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Have seen 6 of the 10 Best Picture Oscar nominees.

Not bowled over by any of them this year. Dont regret having seen them once, but nothing compelling where Im longing to have a 2nd viewing or where the story lead to a lot of reminiscing.

I believe the only one I rewatched was AQotWF and even that pales compared with Dunkirk or 1917 for instance.

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So, we are in Oscar week and it's time for one mega-post about the categories, frontrunners etc. 

There are movies I really liked this year, but as @DireWolfSpirit said, I am not bawled over any of them. It is more parts, or certain aspects of those movies that fascinate me more than finishing product. Somewhere it is acting, somewhere script, somewhere cinematography... 

A lot can be said about Oscar movies and the fact many of them failed at Box office. But then you have two biggest movies of 2022 being nominated for Best Picture: Avatar 2 and Maverick, you have Elvis and EEAAO, not to mention Wakanda Forever and The Batman also being present in other categories, so the criticism of Oscars being too niche, at least this year, doesn't stand. Simply, the Best Picture category is a nice balance between populist hits and niche arthouse movies. 

EEAAO has been sweeping the guilds awards like no one before them. It broke SAG record, it tied with Gravity as the most accolated movie in the guilds award season. It got holy trifecta - DGA, PGA, WGA. Naturally, that is our Best Picture winner. But will it have unprecedented sweep in above-the-line categories is yet to be seen. Since expansion to 10 Best Picture nominated movies, Academy has been known for "spreading the wealth". To have movie winning Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing is unheard of. And EEAAO is locked or frontrunner in most of those categories. 

That said, BAFTA and AACTA, as also some other international awarding bodies show us different picture. EEAAO has strong American support, but will international votes (20% of AMPAS) be able to sway votes in some of these categories, remains to be seen. What helps EEAAO is the fact that it doesn't have strong competitor - simply, there is no number 2. All possible contenders showed weaknesses in some areas - Banshees losing BAFTA, All Quiet on Western Front not being nominated at the guilds, Maverick not winning anything substantial or securing above-the-line nominations, TAR not existing outside Cate Blanchett etc. Not to mention that international body is divided between Elvis, TAR, Triangle of Sadness, Banshees and All Quiet on the Western Front. Simply, there are no alternatives in Picture, Director, Original Screenplay but EEAAO. 

However, acting categories are basically a mess. In Actress, Blanchett and Yeoh are in a coin-tossup situation. Yeoh certainly has the momentum with SAG and Spirit wins, but it should be noted that difference in voting bodies is quite substantial. Yeoh's biggest trump card is that her movie is sweeping through the guilds. Blanchett's is that TAR seems like a movie Academy would not leave without at least one award. And since Venice, she has been that award. However, Blanchett getting her third Oscar against first open-Asian POC actress in this category who is in Best Picture... People say they don't want to talk about race. However, it is inevitable. Yeoh has a rather strong narrative and push from Film Twitter. We'll see how it goes. The fact is no one knows whose name will be called once that envelope is opened.

Similarly confusing situation is in Lead Actor category. Colin Farrell was an early frontrunner having won Volpi Cup at Venice and starting to amass critics awards. He then won Globe - Comedy/Musical. But fighting against the narrative of Brandan Fraser and the adoration of music biopics that pushed Austin Butler for "Elvis" proved to be insurmountable obstacle for Farrell. Butler won Globe and BAFTA, Fraser won CCA and SAG. Likelier to win is Butler as "Elvis" is a strong Best Picture contender with 8 Oscar nominations. But, Fraser has been quite strong in reminding people why they love him and want to award him. 

In Best Supporting Actor, I doubt anyone else can win Ke Huy Quan from EEAAO. He has not swept the precursors, but Globe, CCA and SAG make undeniable claim. Especially since his 2 biggest rivals are from the same movie, thus splitting the votes. But the real clusterfu*k is Best Supporting Actress category. To say that we have entire lineup that is not nominated and more deserving than frontrunners in this category would be understatement of the year. Angela Bassett won Globe and CCA but failed at BAFTA and SAG. Kelly Condon won BAFTA and AACTA, but then SAG created a chaos and awarded Jamie Lee Curtis, propelling her as one of the three possible winners in this category.

The fact that EEAAO is win-competitive in 3 acting categories in 2023 is practically madness. Only 2 movies have managed to win 3 acting Oscars, the last being Network (1976). To win 3 acting awards would be a true madness that is equal to Emmys going nuts for some contenders like "Game of Thrones" and nominating everyone they could have in last season. Needless to say, that would not age well. So, there is hope that Kerry Condon will win for Banshees, securing at least one award for the movie. But JLC has been campaigning like there is no tomorrow, and she is Hollywood nepo baby, so you do the math. 

If EEAAO sweeps in acting categories and above-the-line (Picture, Director, Screenplay), it would leave 4 Best Picture nominated movies without an award - The Fabelmans, Banshees of Inisherin, TAR and Triangle of Sadness (all 4 nominated for Picture, Director, Original Screenplay). 

Women Talking seems certain to take Best Adapted Screenplay after winning WGA, but the news from LA is that Netflix finally came to senses and started campaigning hard for All Quiet. 

Which leaves us with below-the-line categories. Cinematography became a race when Claudio Miranda was not nominated for Oscar, All Quiet won at BAFTA, but then yesterday Elvis won at ASC. Honestly, I would adore if Florian Hoffmeister would win for TAR, but Academy doesn't award that kind of cinematography very often. In Editing, again we have EEAAO facting Top Gun Maverick, but Paul Rogers for EEAAO has also won BAFTA so it also seems like Editing will be part of EEAAO sweep. Sound is usually tied with Editing, but I expect Maverick to take it. Elvis seems destined to take Costumes and Hair and Makeup. Production design is between Babylon and Elvis. And score seems like it is Justin Hurwitz's to lose. Visual effects are expected to go to AVATAR and song to RRR. The animated feature seems to be reserved for GDT's Pinocchio, and foreign feature for All Quiet on the Western front. Documentary is most likely for Navalny, due to its relevant topic. Possible spoiler: Fire of Love. Don't ask me for shorts. The only thing I have watched is "The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse" and it is amazing. I really hope it wins! 

The voting for Oscars ends on March, 7th. Ceremony will be on ABC on March, 12th. Host is Jimmy Kimmel. 

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Personal Best Picture Nominees Ranking:

1. Triangle of Sadness 10/10 (3rd act strongest)

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once 10/10 (3rd act strongest)

3. Women Talking 9/10 (3rd act strongest)

4. Tar 9/10 (3rd act strongest)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin 9/10 (1st act strongest)

6. All Quiet on the Western Front 8/10 (2nd act strongest)

7. Top Gun: Maverick 8/10 (3rd act strongest)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water 7/10 (2nd act strongest)

9. The Fablemans 5/10 (3rd act strongest)

10. Elvis 4/10 (1st act strongest)

 

Oscar Winner Predictions (what my ballot would look like):

Picture: EEAAO (runner-up: Banshees)

Director: Spielberg (runner-up: the Daniels)

Actor: Brendan Fraser (runner-up: Austin Butler)

Actress: Michelle Yeoh (runner-up: Cate Blanchett)

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan (runner-up: Brendan Gleeson)

Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett (runner-up: Kerry Condon)

Original Screenplay: Banshees (runner-up: EEAAO)

Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking (runner-up: Living)

Animated: Pinocchio (runner-up: Puss in Boots)

International: All Quiet (runner-up: Argentina, 1985)

Documentary: Fire of Love (runner-up: Navalny)

Doc Short: The Elephant Whisperers 

Short: Le pupille 

Animated Short: Ice Merchants

Score: Babylon

Song: Naatu Naatu

Sound: Top Gun

Production Design: Babylon

Cinematography: All Quiet

Makeup: Elvis

Costume: Black Panther

Editing: Top Gun

Visual Effects: Avatar

Notes: I'm not giving much to Tar, however Cate will likely beat Michelle Yeoh so Tar will be covered. I tried to spread the love as much as possible, and I hope the Oscars do as well. Tar was a perfect rebuttal to those who think cancel culture has gone too far, expertly showing that you can both have empathy for people who have done terrible things and still hold them accountable for those terrible things. 

 

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On 3/7/2023 at 3:55 AM, GZ Bloodraven said:

Personal Best Picture Nominees Ranking:

1. Triangle of Sadness 10/10 (3rd act strongest)

2. Everything Everywhere All At Once 10/10 (3rd act strongest)

3. Women Talking 7/10 (3rd act strongest)

4. Tar 9/10 (3rd act strongest)

5. The Banshees of Inisherin 9/10 (1st act strongest)

6. All Quiet on the Western Front 8/10 (2nd act strongest)

7. Top Gun: Maverick 8/10 (3rd act strongest)

8. Avatar: The Way of Water 7/10 (2nd act strongest)

9. The Fablemans 5/10 (3rd act strongest)

10. Elvis 4/10 (1st act strongest)

 

Oscar Winner Predictions (what my ballot would look like):

Picture: EEAAO (runner-up: Banshees)

Director: Spielberg (runner-up: the Daniels)

Actor: Brendan Fraser (runner-up: Austin Butler)

Actress: Michelle Yeoh (runner-up: Cate Blanchett)

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan (runner-up: Brendan Gleeson)

Supporting Actress: Angela Bassett (runner-up: Kerry Condon)

Original Screenplay: Banshees (runner-up: EEAAO)

Adapted Screenplay: Women Talking (runner-up: Living)

Animated: Pinocchio (runner-up: Puss in Boots)

International: All Quiet (runner-up: Argentina, 1985)

Documentary: Fire of Love (runner-up: Navalny)

Doc Short: The Elephant Whisperers 

Short: Le pupille 

Animated Short: Ice Merchants

Score: Babylon

Song: Naatu Naatu

Sound: Top Gun

Production Design: Babylon

Cinematography: All Quiet

Makeup: Elvis

Costume: Black Panther

Editing: Top Gun

Visual Effects: Avatar

Notes: I'm not giving much to Tar, however Cate will likely beat Michelle Yeoh so Tar will be covered. I tried to spread the love as much as possible, and I hope the Oscars do as well. Tar was a perfect rebuttal to those who think cancel culture has gone too far, expertly showing that you can both have empathy for people who have done terrible things and still hold them accountable for those terrible things. 

 

Agree with everything except song and cinematography, the latter imho should go to Deakins or Khondji (of late the genre of war is influencing audience more than actual camerawork brilliance much like the dance in Naatu Naatu than the actual music)

I fear RRR winning will do to Indo-Asian cinema what CT,HD or Oldboy did to Eastern cinema (not including the already broke out Japanese scene). Following the attention, barring the few great films from Korea and Co, nothing of note. The authentic voice here may get into a western pandering outlook (market reversal) look at K-Pop. Lesser said about the so called dramas the better. Already watching inaccurate brown inclusion for woke tokens making me cringe...

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Going to borrow from @GZ Bloodraven and rank the films and then discuss individual awards, now that I've finally seen Tár which I found completely riveting thanks to Blanchett's performance and  Field's direction.

Personal Best Picture Nominees Ranking:

Tár 10/10

The Banshees of Inisherin 10/10

To me, those are the only films I'd consider flawless from those that have been nominated. There's literally nothing I can critique about either of them. Tár takes first place by a hair purely because the direction and cinematography is a little bit more complicated and challenging.

Everything Everywhere All at Once 8/10

All Quiet on the Western Front 8/10

I've voiced my critiques about EEAaO and the "maximalism" of the Daniels (which I see more as lack of discipline moreso than anything laudable), and think the movie's too long for its own good to boot, but end of the day the themes it touches on and the performances (especially Ke Huy Quan) that strung a real, human chord with me despite some of the nonsense around it. All Quiet is a very accomplished film with some real empathetic acting, but its flaws strike me as serious errors of judgment rather than simply being the result of deliberate style. 

Triangle of Sadness 7/10

Elvis 7/10

Women Talking 7/10

The Fabelmans 7/10

Triangle was a bit disappointing, as the individual parts of it were generally fun and entertaining critiques of the wealthy and especially of "influencers", but I didn't feel it hang together too well. The Square was much stronger. The rest... I feel like Fabelmans was interesting for what it was, a somewhat hagiographic semi-autobiography, and the best bits for me had to do with young Spielberg's -- err, Fabelmans -- budding obsession with films and filmmaking. As to Elvis and Women Talking... I'm vacilliating a bit, but basically Elvis is certainly a more directorially complex film, and Austin Butler did manage to stand out in his performance. Combine it with the production design and editing and I'll just put that over Women Talking, which I was bit underwhelmed by. Especially because of the cast -- Roonie Mara? Jessie Buckley? Francis McDormand? Claire Foy? That's a list of heavy-hitters, and yet they couldn't breathe life into a film that to me felt strangely inert.

Top Gun: Maverick 6/10

Didn't see it in a theatre, much less IMAX, so I know that is part of the issue. But other than Cruise's undeniable charm and the excellent action cinematography, plus the very touching appearance of Val Kilmer's Iceman, it's a deeply mediocre script and story.Definitely think 

 

Oscar Winner Predictions (what my ballot would look like PLUS who I think will actually win):

Picture: Tár (runner-up: The Banshees of Inisherin) (Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once)

Director: Todd Field (runner-up: Martin McDonagh) (Will win: The Daniels) (That said, never count Spielberg out. Won't shock me if he wins.)

Actor: Paul Mescal (runner-up: Colin Farrell) (Will win: Brendan Fraser) (This is a tough category. I thought for sure it was Farrell, up until I saw Aftersun. Just heartbreaking, shattering performance from Mescal, but Farrell brings all of his considerable charm and talent to bear... this probably the most toss-up category for me

Actress: Cate Blanchett (runner-up: Andrea Riseborough -- I don't mind Yeoh getting a lifetime achievement type of award here, but having just seen To Leslie, Riseborough's performance is completely lived-in and impeccable.) (Will win: Michelle Yeoh)

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan (runner-up: Brendan Gleeson) (Will win: Ke Huy Quan, what a lovely, humane performance, and what a great story)

Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon (runner-up: Jamie Lee Curtis -- this one may be movie apostasy, but she was more memorable than Hsu for me, particularly in the alternate universe sequences where she had those sausage fingers and we see her tragic love affair) (Will win: Angela Basset -- more a lifetime achievement award  than anything, but I love Bassett so I wouldn't be mad.)

Original Screenplay: The Banshees of Inisherin (runner-up: Tár) (Will win: EEAaO)

Adapted Screenplay: Wish I had seen Living to better judge this. Without that, I guess it'd be All Quiet on the Western Front followed by Women Talking, and I'm guessing Women Talking will win.

Cinematography: Florian Hoffmeister (Tár) (runner-up: Roger Deakins, Empire of Light) (Will win: Deakins, because I think he's now entered the perennial winner zone after being a perennial also-ran for decades. Plus I just saw he's on the press circuit:

 

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