Climate Change III - The Power of Chaos

[Rippounet]

On 5/8/2023 at 7:10 AM, The Anti-Targ said:

I'm not going to say whether or not Oliver Stone is a bit kooky, believes in some crazy conspiracy theories or has some questionable associations. But it seems like his latest documentary should be on everyone who is concerned about climate change's watch list.

It's always a good idea to question our negative perception of nuclear energy, though I dunno if Stone is the best person to do that. The same job is being done here in France by the guy who's widely seen as the leading expert on the environmental crisis ; though I must say, said guy is also very clear about the fact that nuclear energy does not change the fact that that de-growth is ineluctable.
Having kinda joined the team at some point, communication is truly a bitch. The more you know about the environmental crisis, the more you realize what the root cause is, but to communicate on that invites strong resistance. So -when you're actually preaching- you're always down to being extremely factual about the issues and what adaptations are possible and letting people make up their own mind, which means many simply refuse to accept the broader implications - it's just to much to take in.
In a nutshell you know some kind of revolution is necessary, but you can only suggest it. It's intensely frustrating.

On a different note, I'm sure you've seen Spain has some serious water problems, but this little tidbit struck me:

Quote

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/11/spain-approves-unprecedented-drought-recovery-plan

The measures, described as unprecedented by the government, were signed off by the cabinet on Thursday. They include €1.4bn of funds from the environment ministry to tackle the drought and increase the availability of water, and €784m from the agriculture ministry to help farmers maintain production and avoid food shortages.

The plan came a day after the Socialist-led coalition government announced legislation that will mean outdoor workers such as refuse collectors, street sweepers and builders will not have to work when the Spanish meteorological office issues high temperature alerts. The move follows the deaths of a street sweeper and a leaflet delivery man during last July’s heatwave in the Madrid region.

 

It's quite likely these alerts have existed for decades in Spain, but I can't help seeing an aspect of our future. Such alerts are likely to become increasingly common in a lot of countries.

[The Anti-Targ]

I can see more outside work normally done during the day shifting to being night work in the summer months. Street sweeping and rubbish collection are not things that need to be done during the day, and often aren't in a lot of countries already. Building work can proceed at night too, though the cost of providing good quality lighting can't be dismissed.

I think some of the right people to question negative perceptions of nuclear energy are the people who quit Greenpeace because of its unrepentantly dogmatic stance opposing all fission-based nuclear energy.

I don't necessarily accept that de-growth is necessary to deal with climate change. I think de-emphasis on endless and increasing growth as the metric for country economic prosperity and in particular the capitalist perspective on it is necessary. There is no need for any human alive today to struggle for survival. We have the capability and resources for everyone to have adequate food, clothing, education, health, housing and recreation. That some people do not is a collective choice not an inevitability. 100 years ago grinding poverty was an unavoidable fact of human society and had been so for thousands of years. That historic unavoidability still persists in the minds of so many today, but it is no longer true. The previously immutable law of the struggle for existence has now been mutableised, it now just needs to be realised.

[Rippounet]

9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I don't necessarily accept that de-growth is necessary to deal with climate change.

De-growth isn't a choice, it's going to happen wether we want it or not.

9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I don't necessarily accept that de-growth is necessary to deal with climate change. I think de-emphasis on endless and increasing growth as the metric for country economic prosperity and in particular the capitalist perspective on it is necessary. There is no need for any human alive today to struggle for survival.

Ah, semantics then. "De-growth" is one of these words that don't exactly mean what you'd think at a glance (like "collapse").
What "de-growth" means is a shift in value, which equals to de-growth within the current framework. It doesn't mean less human activity, but a re-focus on "essential" or "socially useful" activities.
For instance, useless or harmful activites that today have great value will progressively vanish: finance, luxury, mass tourism... etc. Conversely, more time and value will be given to activities that are poorly valued within a capitalist/neo-liberal framework: the "care" sector, culture (art, music, literature... etc), all social activities (gaming, hobbies, all sports... etc), craftmanship (rather than industrial mass production)... etc. Also, many activities will be so essential that they won't be able to operate for-profit: health and insurance for instance.
In terms of development, I was just reading last night that it would correspond roughly to the level reached in the 1970s by developed societies, so long as there is both a minimum revenue (UBI) and also a maximum for everyone.
1970s may be a bit optimistic imho, but generally speaking it's understood that the target is somewhere around post-WW2 economic development, with the added benefits of current technology and knowledge.
It would be very wrong to assume this would be a "struggle," despite the catastrophes that are sure to come.

Such a shift will happen one way or another, because stuff like finance and luxury will eventually disappear in a burning world.
If it's a controled process, we can get lots of stuff in exchange: a care and convivialist society. OTOH, if we continue to fuck things up, we'll not only lose lots of the stuff we have today, but get nothing in exchange, i.e. we'll get some kind of fascist dystopia in a devastated world.
Right now we're headed for the dystopia. But I find it hard to believe humanity will remain trapped in an absurd value system. Especially since I observe that environmental awareness affects one's value system. In a burning world, most people will choose de-growth of their own volition ; only psychopaths would cling to activities that are obviously problematic.
And right now, we may be governed by psychopaths, but that's also something that I find hard to believe will last much longer. Oh sure, it might yet take a couple of decades to overthrow the corrupt fuckers currently in power (they're persistent parasites all right), but they're already losing popular support so unless they go for authoritarianism, they'll be kicked out.
 

[The Anti-Targ]

The researched word on livestock methane and achieving net zero.

Quote

While net zero for CO2 is pivotal, modelling of future mitigation pathways anticipates that the 1.5oC Paris target is possible through zero net CO2 with only a 38% reduction in livestock CH4 emissions (Popp et al 2017; Reisinger et al 2021). This reflects the shorter atmospheric lifetime of methane, meaning the warming due to past CH4 emission diminishes quicker than it does for CO2. This is important as it identifies scope for sustaining ruminant livestock as a basis of global food security despite a net zero CO2 target.

(PDF) Ameliorating the contribution of livestock to global greenhouse gas production: dream or deliverable? (researchgate.net)

Most of that 38% can be achieved with changing farming practices, increased efficiency and improving animal health, without substantially decreasing meat or dairy production.

People can reduce red meat and dairy consumption to decrease their personal carbon footprint, but elimination is unnecessary and the most important thing for reaching net zero is eliminating fossil fuel emissions.

If you want to be vegan to save the climate fine. But if you like to eat real cheeseburgers politely tell any righteous vegans trying to guilt trip you to check their facts. There might be other good reasons to be vegan, but climate change isn't one of them.

[ThinkerX]

Odd warming trend kicked in over the past couple of months. Given the nice crimson shades for Greenland and Antarctica, I have to wonder about increased glacial melting in those areas.

The global oceans experience two unprecedented months: “It is extraordinarily unusual” (msn.com)

 

An “extraordinarily unusual” situation is taking place in the oceans for which experts do not know the origin. During the first days of March, from the 1st to the 5th, the global oceans recorded their highest temperature since satellite data is available. Since then, it has maintained unprecedented levels for this time of the year. “We still don’t know why it is happening,” says Raquel Somavilla, a researcher at the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO-CSIC), in statements collected by ABC.

Everything lies in El Niño, one of the two meteorological cycles that are part of the El Niño Phenomenon. This cycle is characterized by warm temperatures that cause the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean to warm more than usual. When this happens, low pressures occur in the atmosphere, which translates into abundant precipitation on the western coasts of America.

Well, this phenomenon, according to experts, has not yet shown its full effects in 2023. However, the ocean has reached its highest-ever temperature ever reported since records have been kept. What awaits us then? “The El Niño event has not yet developed, so there is no explanation for such a pronounced increase in the surface temperature of the sea,” explains Somavilla.

[Luzifer's right hand]

On 5/19/2023 at 4:11 AM, The Anti-Targ said:

The researched word on livestock methane and achieving net zero.

(PDF) Ameliorating the contribution of livestock to global greenhouse gas production: dream or deliverable? (researchgate.net)

Most of that 38% can be achieved with changing farming practices, increased efficiency and improving animal health, without substantially decreasing meat or dairy production.

People can reduce red meat and dairy consumption to decrease their personal carbon footprint, but elimination is unnecessary and the most important thing for reaching net zero is eliminating fossil fuel emissions.

If you want to be vegan to save the climate fine. But if you like to eat real cheeseburgers politely tell any righteous vegans trying to guilt trip you to check their facts. There might be other good reasons to be vegan, but climate change isn't one of them.

You mean if you ignore feedstock production and only focus on ruminant methane? I guess the food we feed to animals just appears out of nowhere and requires neither land, fertilizers nor transportation. The last time I looked we used 80% of the planets farmland that way.

Animal agriculture is incredible inefficient outside of ruminants that only graze an land that has not recently been acquired by destroying natural forests(burn jungle burn) which is a only very small part of global animal agriculture.

Edited May 21, 2023 by Luzifer's right hand

[Zorral]

Click on google translate and you are in English.  The translation is fairly good, though it messes with pronouns and tenses more than less, so one must re-translate, so to speak.

These are our friends, so the personal connection  to this piece of climate refugees from the United States is very strong.

Art and anthropology against the ecosocial crisis: "We are climate refugees and that will be normal"
The artist Courtney D. Morris and the musician and leader of Antibalas Martín Perna have been homeless since February after a flood in California and now seek to settle in Córdoba, where their work is exhibited

https://cordopolis.eldiario.es/cultura/arte-antropologia-crisis-ecosocial-refugiados-climaticos-normal_1_10198553.html

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The grandmother of African-American artist and anthropologist Courtney D. Morris passed away in 2019 shortly before telling her [Courtney] that she was going to have [be] a mother. She and her partner, the musician and leader of the group Antibalas Martín Perna, had already had an unsuccessful pregnancy and they took the omen as a joke. But it happened. In the midst of the pandemic, Courtney became pregnant and what should have been a moment of happiness and celebration turned into a period of fear, fueled by the televised death of George Floyd, who died calling for his mother under the knee of a police officer. which is supposed to protect him.

This mixture of sensations is found in the work that Thyssen-Bornemisza Art Contemporary (TBA21) exhibits at the Center for Contemporary Creation of Andalusia (C3A), in Córdoba, the city where Morris and Perna are planning to move because, since February this year, they are homeless, as a flood washed away their home. "Now we are climate refugees, but that will be the most normal thing," says the artist and anthropologist in an interview with Cordópolis .  ....

... The couple has been collaborating together for years, since both are very interested in the cultural intersection between what is African - he is the leader of Antibalas -, what is North American and what is Anglo-Saxon. Being parents in a world in crisis, however, was something that caught them with no score to hold on to.

“The thing is, when Courtney got pregnant, it should have been a very happy time, and yet it was kind of scary because, in the US at least, pregnant black women have a much higher mortality rate during pregnancy. higher than the rest. I had to sit in the car waiting while she was seen by the doctors, wondering if she was getting the care she needed. We didn't know if we were going to survive this situation and what should be a celebration of life turned into a very precarious stage. All this until the girl arrived and everything changed”, explains Perna, while Courtney points out that motherhood is usually approached socially “in a very reductionist way”, without taking into account issues that go beyond mere skills to be a mother.

Morris considered from the beginning what it means to be a mother at a time like the present. “What does it take to raise children who can survive in these conditions?” she wondered then and still does. Because in February 2023, in the same California that has been experiencing a plague of fires that has devastated the state for years, a flood left them homeless. ....

 

 

[ThinkerX]

In the time-honored tradition of 'shoot the messenger,' meteorologists across the globe are now the subject of death threats. There seems to be a growing belief that they are the public faces behind a deliberate, malicious campaign of forcing climate change. I figure it is only a matter of time - couple years tops - before this is a central plank in political parties.

 

Meteorologists are the new targets in global social media misinformation - ABC News

 

 

[Zorral]

Our medical network sent us messages today to stay inside as much as possible at least through tomorrow night.  When venturing outdoors we should wear high quality masks.

We are experiencing a dreadful level of toxic/pollution in NYC's air quality, such as never quite been seen before, all due to the Canadian wildfires. And they seem to be all over Canada.  First it was in Alberta, then Nova Scotia, now Quebec.  The smoke and particulate funnels directly like through a chimney down to the Atlantic Coast.  Further north, as upstate, it's actually dark.  Here, the haze is palpable; the air looks funny, discolored, sort of yellow/brownish.

This has been going on for days, but today's the worst so far.

Trying to imaqine what it's like in Ontario, judging by the maps of this.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Zorral

[Kalbear]

One of the things we invested in last year was a heat pump for the house because of the wildfires and the increasing heat of the Seattle area. Prior to this the notion of needing AC was ridiculous - even when it got 'hot' (about 80-85) we could just use box fans and open windows.

But the heat is getting far worse AND opening the house up means breathing in the smoke. So we went for more efficient that also cools the house and lets us not get asthma.

But we're well-off, and we're one of the very small percentages of households in the Seattle area that have AC. Most everyone cannot remotely afford this - either in adding this to houses or renting a place that has it (if it's even available). This will only exacerbate the housing issues here.

[Larry of the Lawn]

10 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Our medical network sent us messages today to stay inside as much as possible at least through tomorrow night.  When venturing outdoors we should wear high quality masks.

We are experiencing a dreadful level of toxic/pollution in NYC's air quality, such as never quite been seen before, all due to the Canadian wildfires. And they seem to be all over Canada.  First it was in Alberta, then Nova Scotia, now Quebec.  The smoke and particulate funnels directly like through a chimney down to the Atlantic Coast.  Further north, as upstate, it's actually dark.  Here, the haze is palpable; the air looks funny, discolored, sort of yellow/brownish.

This has been going on for days, but today's the worst so far.

Trying to imaqine what it's like in Ontario, judging by the maps of this.

Yeah, hope our Canadian boarders are ok.  I'm in the Catskills and coming across the Rip Van Winkle bridge from Hudson about an hour ago visibility was under a half mile best as I can tell.  Strong smoke smell, I worked outside until about 1:30 when the air got lousy enough I didn't feel like being out in it anymore.  

[Zorral]

1 minute ago, Larry of the Lake said:

Strong smoke smell, I worked outside until about 1:30 when the air got lousy enough I didn't feel like being out in it anymore

Glad you are able to be inside now.

With all this going on I forgot that we also have smoke/[particulate from the New Jersey wildfire.

Last West Coast wildfire season a  lot of it blew right over the Rockies and ended up here too.

Edited June 6, 2023 by Zorral

[Zorral]

BTW -- 9/11, for weeks was this bad* with more 'stuff' in it, and it did a number on our respiratory systems.  However, that was quite contained within particular perimeters.  This wildfire-smoke-particulate hazard is affecting far more people than downtown NYC.

* Plus remember, Bush and his environmental team LIED to us about what the situation was.  At least this time we know and we can wear masks and know about staying inside.  The library at least has a terrific air filter system, a quite new installation.

 

Edited June 6, 2023 by Zorral

[Zorral]

Photo of NYC from the river opens the article.  

Canada wildfire smoke threatens health of millions

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65828469

 

[ThinkerX]

Economic effects of a declining population. Seems that the entire 'First World' is below replacement numbers by quite a bit.

 

Opinion: Population decline is a ticking time bomb (msn.com)

 

Either the population continues to grow and living standards rise, or the population shrinks, living standards stagnate and humans eventually disappear, he said. Once fertility descends below the replacement rate, he said, the condition is hard to reverse. In recent decades, governments the world over have sought to reverse declining fertility through various incentives and programs. The results have been mixed at best.

Jones and others point out that a dwindling population would result in less innovation. The Economist describes the brains of younger people as possessing what psychologists call “fluid intelligence,” or the ability to approach problems in creative and unique ways.

Similarly, population growth and the environment is misunderstood, Jones said. “The bulk of history suggests that adding more people has made things better rather than worse,” he said. A good bit of that improvement comes from the competitive nature of the modern economy.

[Zorral]

Pretty interesting meteorological writing, and so on our situation.

When Is the Smoke Apocalypse in New York Going to End

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/06/how-long-is-this-smoke-in-new-york-going-to-last.html

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.... What we have going on right now is called an Omega block. That is, you have a low that is in the Gulf of Maine to Nova Scotia, you have a big high-pressure ridge over Canada, southward across the central U.S., and you have a low-pressure system that is just off the coast of California west of Los Angeles. So the jet stream wraps around that — it comes around the base of the low out west, comes up northward into Canada around the big high-pressure ridge, then comes back around the bottom of the low that is in the Gulf of Maine. The jet stream looks like a giant Omega symbol: thus the Omega block.

And the key word is block. It blocks everything, this kind of setup. You have high pressure well out into the Atlantic that blocks the low from leaving and sort of backs it in a little bit toward the U.S. coast. So this low that is sitting there, it spins counterclockwise. The prevailing winds are out of the north and northwest. And the fires are up in central Ontario and Quebec and around Nova Scotia and so that low, the winds around that pull the smoke farther south.

How and when is it going to end?
What gets this to stop is the low-pressure system dissipating, weakening, and then the winds stop or change direction to push the smoke out into the Atlantic. And that’s what we’re expecting to happen as we go into Thursday and Friday. We’ll have more of a wind out of the north, and the low will be weakening and backing into Maine. Eventually, the system will go north into Canada on Thursday night and Friday. Saturday it will finally get out of here and take the smoke with it.

So we’re ultimately waiting on this low-pressure system to move out rather than waiting for the fires to be extinguished?
That’s right, it’s all dependent on this low that’s stuck there. Had it not been, you would have had high pressure coming in that would have pushed the smoke out into the Atlantic. But this pattern has everything kind of stuck in place.  ....

 

 

[Rippounet]

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

Economic effects of a declining population. Seems that the entire 'First World' is below replacement numbers by quite a bit.

Good. Finally, some actual good news.

[Larry of the Lawn]

2 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Economic effects of a declining population. Seems that the entire 'First World' is below replacement numbers by quite a bit.

 

Opinion: Population decline is a ticking time bomb (msn.com)

 

Either the population continues to grow and living standards rise, or the population shrinks, living standards stagnate and humans eventually disappear, he said. Once fertility descends below the replacement rate, he said, the condition is hard to reverse. In recent decades, governments the world over have sought to reverse declining fertility through various incentives and programs. The results have been mixed at best.

Jones and others point out that a dwindling population would result in less innovation. The Economist describes the brains of younger people as possessing what psychologists call “fluid intelligence,” or the ability to approach problems in creative and unique ways.

Similarly, population growth and the environment is misunderstood, Jones said. “The bulk of history suggests that adding more people has made things better rather than worse,” he said. A good bit of that improvement comes from the competitive nature of the modern economy.

I'm trying to do my part, yesterday I had a consult for a vasectomy and was able to schedule it for next month.  

[DMC]

The air quality caused tonight's Yankees game to be postponed.  NOW I'm pissed!

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, ThinkerX said:

Economic effects of a declining population. Seems that the entire 'First World' is below replacement numbers by quite a bit.

 

Opinion: Population decline is a ticking time bomb (msn.com)

 

Either the population continues to grow and living standards rise, or the population shrinks, living standards stagnate and humans eventually disappear, he said. Once fertility descends below the replacement rate, he said, the condition is hard to reverse. In recent decades, governments the world over have sought to reverse declining fertility through various incentives and programs. The results have been mixed at best.

 

That's catastrophising to a ridiculous degree. 

There are four main reasons people are having fewer babies: the perception that it's bad for the environment; the perception that human society is shit and people don't want to bring children into such a shit world; it's too bloody expensive to have kids; and women are being educated and realising they are so much more than baby factories.

If you deal with the first three of those four factors then fertility will almost certainly return to replacement rates over time.

Having children is not the environmental problem, the problem remains the sources of energy we use to raise those children. Climate change is and will always be about ridding ourselves of reliance on fossil fuels. Can a period of declining population help to transition to that? Yes, since it will allow transitions to non-fossil fuel energy sources with a slower rate of demand growth meaning decommissioning of current oil/gas/coal electricity plants sooner.

Meanwhile to no one's surprise our May was the warmest May on record. The report also said 5 of the warmest Mays on record have occurred since 2011, which means at least half of the warmest 10 Mays have occurred since 2011. It's also been exceptionally wet, and I wonder if wetter autumns are going to become standard here as part of the climate change.