Climate Change III - The Power of Chaos

[Rippounet]

6 hours ago, Ran said:

It's ridiculous because it requires magical thinking to suppose it can and will happen.

An accurate description of your belief that we will reach 80-90% renewables without degrowth.

Political and social realities will always be easier to bend to our will than the laws of physics. In fact, sooner or later, we will be forced to stop magical thinking and adapt to the grim nature of physical reality. The choice is between believing we will be able to perform this technological and philosophical transition in a civilized manner, and assuming we won't and will be witnesses to a form of civilizational collapse - since human rights at least will progressively disappear*.
There's no fatality to this, we'll have the choice until the very end. The one position that deserves no respect is the one advocating for business-as-usual, which requires a level of denial that somehow makes me think of Galileo.

*arguably, they've already disappeared for refugees.

6 hours ago, Ran said:

Rippounet's argument is that the world  has not really acted at all, hence time for some mild(?) eco-terrorism to put fear into the hearts of people.

Strawmanning again, uh*?  
I guess when science is not on your side it must be difficult not to play dirty in order to convince yourself you are still on the right side of history.
Part of me is in awe at how far deniers will go to protect their fragile dogmas. Pretty much anything but admit that our Western way of life is and has always been the main problem and to face the logical implications of that.
Loss aversion will be a powerful force against progress. The more you have, and the worse it is...

*I can't resist a bit of pedantry here...
In How to blow up a pipeline (a misleading title), Andreas Malm begins by presenting the absence of actual eco-terrorism as an enigma. Why do people not in fact blow up stuff to save our civilization form itself?
The answer is quite simply that there is no need to do anything to "put fear into the hears of people" because reality itself is what's terrifying. It would be absurd to seek to create fear through action, when the scientific truth and daily news are enough to achieve that. Communicating is enough to be an "eco-terrorist": just watching the news and spreading information. Thus the only thing left to discuss is the possibility of non-violent blockage. This Malm condones, by noting that it can influence value - that non-violent protests can affect the value of the shares of specific companies for instance, and that environmental activism has in fact achieved some minor victories through it.
The second reason is suggested by Malm in Fossil Capital: it is the link between technological power ("machines") and fascism. The link is well-known in leftist thought, as it is made between structures of socio-economic power, technological power, the patriarchy, and colonialism. What this means though, is that an attack against the dominant ideology and its dogmas might result in the structures of power reinforcing themselves through forms of authoritarianism. To put it bluntly, environmental activists (even those merely spreading information) would be labeled as "eco-terrorists," censored, and jailed. This we are already seeing in the developed world: the use of a baseless and ridiculous accusation to attempt to discredit and persecute. This isn't some abstract possibility: the French government has been arresting dozens of environmental activists these past few weeks and trying to disband their organizations. It's an unprecedented attack of a "democratic" government against freedom of expression, freedom of protest, and freedom of assembly.
Because, again, it's difficult not to play dirty when science is not on your side.
 

[Kalbear]

I'd more strawman @Rippounet's argument that regardless of what has been done and what is projected, it is both not remotely sufficient to meet anything resembling a good goal AND in many cases is incredibly unrealistic without magical thinking about scientific breakthroughs and finding resources. Therefore, if you want to actually get to a world that isn't hideously broken (especially in the developing world) you will need to step up your game and make people understand the urgency of acting now, and not just gloss over it with 'it'll be fine in 20 years'.

I'm not sure I entirely agree with it, but I think that's a more fair characterization. 

In a nice digest Ars Technica came out with a good summary of some of the major issues that are happening right now:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/07/june-extremes-suggest-parts-of-climate-system-are-reaching-tipping-points/

Quote

 

“These extraordinary extremes could be an early warning of tipping points towards different weather or sea ice or fire regimes,” said University of Exeter climate researcher Tim Lenton. “We call it ‘flickering’ when a complex system starts to briefly sample a new regime before tipping into it. Let’s hope I’m wrong on that.”

In the meantime, the tropical Pacific Ocean is shifting into the warm El Niño phase of a two- to seven-year Pacific Ocean cycle that can boost the average global temperature by 0.2° Celsius, enough to stoke the planet’s fever to a dangerous new high.

“The onset of El Niño will greatly increase the likelihood of breaking temperature records and triggering more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean,” said World Meteorological Organization Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “Early warnings and anticipatory action of extreme weather events associated with this major climate phenomenon are vital to save lives and livelihoods.”

 

This also addresses a point @Ran made earlier that bugged me - saying how many countries are getting better. It's great that many countries are getting better, but every country is not equivalent - and if China and India aren't the ones that are improving it hardly matters what Sierra Leone and Mauritius do:

Quote

 

The El Niño temperature nudge comes against a backdrop of record-high carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, he said, adding that the rate of increase is as high as it has ever been and continues to accelerate.

“In other words, there is no bending down of the CO2 record, as should happen with all the new actions being taken in the US and elsewhere,” he said. “The problem is that China and India are accelerating their coal-fired power stations and overwhelming all other cuts.”

 

They also point out that while the country's artificial carbon emissions may be decreasing in some places this is likely going to be offset by 'natural' emissions that are increasing - things like wildfires, methane releases from siberia and the like. 

[Conflicting Thought]

2 hours ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

and if China and India aren't the ones that are improving it hardly matters what Sierra Leone and Mauritius do:

and the USA

[Spockydog]

17 hours ago, Ran said:

It's ridiculous because it requires magical thinking to suppose it can and will happen.

I'll tell you what's magical thinking. The notion that we can have infinite growth on a planet with finite resources.

 

[Ran]

5 hours ago, Spockydog said:

I'll tell you what's magical thinking. The notion that we can have infinite growth on a planet with finite resources.

 

We have the materials and energy (especially, there is essentially unlimited energy) available for centuries more of growth. Deciding that today that stops while a substantial portion of the world lives in poverty is cruel at worst, deluded at best.

[Corvinus85]

Well this might be a game changer if it can be proven sustainable https://www.space.com/space-solar-power-satellite-beams-energy-1st-time

Quote

The Space Solar Power Demonstrator's MAPLE experiment was able to wirelessly transfer collected solar power to receivers in space and direct energy to Earth.

A space solar power prototype has demonstrated its ability to wirelessly beam power through space and direct a detectable amount of energy toward Earth for the first time. The experiment proves the viability of tapping into a near-limitless supply of power in the form of energy from the sun from space.

 

[Week]

2 hours ago, Corvinus85 said:

Well this might be a game changer if it can be proven sustainable https://www.space.com/space-solar-power-satellite-beams-energy-1st-time

 

Ooh, daddy wants an Icarus Array pronto!

https://rifters.com/real/Blindsight.htm

[Rippounet]

15 hours ago, Ran said:

Deciding that today that stops while a substantial portion of the world lives in poverty is cruel at worst, deluded at best.

If you had some intellectual honesty, you'd have realized that, given the way I have consistently distinguished the developed world from the developing world and evoked colonialism, it is highly unlikely that anything I was saying was directed at people living in poverty - who, by definition, shouldn't be able to read us.
You'd also have read what I posted about the way the degrowth movement approaches production and realized that pretty much nothing in the agenda applies to developing countries or poor people.

Funny thing though... It's an actual coincidence, but last night I watched an interview of Olivier De Schutter on one of my favorite youtube channels. Mr De Schutter is the United Nations Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights. If you're curious you can read his bio here and watch the interview here (it's in French, but perhaps youtube can generate English subtitles?).
This is someone who has dedicated his life to fighting against poverty and for human rights... So after reading Ran's posts, I was in fact mildy surprised when Mr De Schutter fully aligned himself with the degrowth movement. His interview was full of perfect echoes of my posts here. His most interesting argument (in a nutshell) was that it is no longer possible to say that growth reduces poverty ; due to neo-liberal ideology and reforms, growth now increases inequality and thus poverty (he actually blamed neo-liberalism for the recent return of poverty).
He unambiguously said that degrowth is the only rational way forward.
In all honesty he sounded even more radical than I am at times , but he was clearly using the same information that I have.

If you're sincerely worried about poverty, this is what degrowth says about it:

 

Quote

 

3.3.7. Inequality

Degrowth seeks to (1) reduce inequality by focusing on redistribution within and between countries. To eradicate extreme wealth, the agenda discusses maximum wages, highly progressive income taxes, reparations for ecological debt, as well as taxes on inheritance, wealth, and luxury consumption. To (2) eradicate poverty degrowth seeks to guarantee the universal provisioning of fundamental human needs, calling for various forms of basic incomes, minimum living wages, and free access to a selection of public services like healthcare, housing, electricity, education, public transport and water. Addressing inequality also requires (3) transformative justice, often in the form of new principles of non-discrimination and equality in human rights law (e.g. redefine the obligations of international assistance and cooperation), alternatives to incarceration (e.g. rehabilitation programs following the principle of restorative justice), and guaranteed access to free legal services.

 

And yep, Mr De Schutter said he was working on this kind of policy with his team. His main objective is now to figure out how to eradicate poverty without growth.

There's a lot of noise about such approaches in academia and environmental circles and, at least in France, it's seeping into the mainstream. Which is kinda odd since we've moved to the right in so many ways... Strange times I guess.
I have to confess I believe it is because the scientific basis for degrowth is unassailable.

15 hours ago, Ran said:

We have the materials and energy (especially, there is essentially unlimited energy) available for centuries more of growth.

Meanwhile, in the real world: World breaks hottest-day record for third time this week - U.S. agency (Reuters)

Edit: As a footnote,  degrowth doesn't have to be permanent. In the long run, I think we might very well be able to have "cheap" and abudant green energy - there's lots of encouraging ideas. The thing is... it won't happen within the time window that we need it to happen - that's wishful thinking.
How crazy is it to pause things and try to figure out what we're doing wrong (because, quite obviously, we are doing something very wrong)... And what does it mean that we don't seem to be able to do this rational thing... ?

On 7/6/2023 at 9:41 PM, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

I'd more strawman @Rippounet's argument that regardless of what has been done and what is projected, it is both not remotely sufficient to meet anything resembling a good goal AND in many cases is incredibly unrealistic without magical thinking about scientific breakthroughs and finding resources. Therefore, if you want to actually get to a world that isn't hideously broken (especially in the developing world) you will need to step up your game and make people understand the urgency of acting now, and not just gloss over it with 'it'll be fine in 20 years'.

I'm not sure I entirely agree with it, but I think that's a more fair characterization.

Thanks, that is in fact a very fair characterization.

Edited July 7, 2023 by Rippounet

[The Anti-Targ]

I just think that "degrowth", like a lot of terminology that the left / progressives adopt, is a dumb word that is not descriptive at all of the fundamentals of what is meant and it actively contributes to a reflexive rejection by people who can't or don't want to read the detail behind the slogans. It's about as bad as "defund the police" in conveying completely the wrong first impression.

Why couldn't they call it "regrowth"? An equally vague word that also does not really describe what is trying to be achieved, but way more attractive to the low information masses. After all, isn't part of what people with this mindset want to achieve is a re-orientation of what growth should mean and a re-balancing of the distribution of wealth.

Degrowth sounds scary, regrowth sounds hopeful. The left / progressives are so shit at basic messaging and soundbites.

[Rippounet]

11 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Why couldn't they call it "regrowth"?

You know, that's actually a great idea. Mind if I steal it?

I believe (but I'm not sure) that "degrowth" is a translation of the French "décroissance." It's not uncommon to attribute the concept to French philosopher André Gorz. At any rate, it's linked to Gorz, Baudrillard, Georgescu-Roegen, and Illich, so it's more of a European thing. These days, lots of folks (including De Schutter) also mention "post-growth," which is perhaps more optimistic in outlook - more Anglo-Saxon. I guess "post-growth" makes it clearer that it's a new stage in economic and social development, once a society has reached certain standards of living.
Thing is, I don't think folks like Gorz and Baudrillard were too concerned about communication strategy - back in the day. It's more of a recent problem - which says something in itself imho.

[ThinkerX]

A new study warming of 'climate doom loops' in as little as fifteen years. Most climate studies focus on a single driving catastrophe, while this one wrestles with multiple factors. To me, though...it still looks overly simplistic.

Catastrophic climate 'doom loops' could start in just 15 years, new study warns (msn.com)

[The Anti-Targ]

On 7/9/2023 at 12:44 AM, Rippounet said:

You know, that's actually a great idea. Mind if I steal it?

I believe (but I'm not sure) that "degrowth" is a translation of the French "décroissance." It's not uncommon to attribute the concept to French philosopher André Gorz. At any rate, it's linked to Gorz, Baudrillard, Georgescu-Roegen, and Illich, so it's more of a European thing. These days, lots of folks (including De Schutter) also mention "post-growth," which is perhaps more optimistic in outlook - more Anglo-Saxon. I guess "post-growth" makes it clearer that it's a new stage in economic and social development, once a society has reached certain standards of living.
Thing is, I don't think folks like Gorz and Baudrillard were too concerned about communication strategy - back in the day. It's more of a recent problem - which says something in itself imho.

I make no claims as to ownership.

See this is the sort of thing that happens when wonkish philosophers (academics in general) let ideas and concepts out into the wild unfiltered for public consumption. "Post-growth" is more neutral.

Interesting video basically looking at Europe as a post-growth continent, albeit not using that term, even though most people in Europe probably still operate in a growth mindset.

The problem, as I see it but not really framed as such, in this video is that low growth in Europe has not been a deliberate policy choice, but is a consequence of factors many of which are seen as objective negatives. But in the end Europe could be unconsciously leading the way as an example of sustaining quality of life with limited bean counting-type economic growth. Measure economic performance not by gross growth metrics but by population well-being. I don't know if European population well-being is better / improving more than the USA, but it is conceivable that well-being and growth rate dissociate once a certain level of social and economic development is reached.

[Rippounet]

8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The problem, as I see it but not really framed as such, in this video is that low growth in Europe has not been a deliberate policy choice, but is a consequence of factors many of which are seen as objective negatives. But in the end Europe could be unconsciously leading the way as an example of sustaining quality of life with limited bean counting-type economic growth. Measure economic performance not by gross growth metrics but by population well-being. I don't know if European population well-being is better / improving more than the USA, but it is conceivable that well-being and growth rate dissociate once a certain level of social and economic development is reached.

It's not so much that Europe is doing good... More that the US is degrading fast.

The problem with European countries is that they seem determined to stick with the bean-counting, even when they could do it differently. Deficits and debts have been used throughout the continent to attack public services and workers' rights, while tax cuts are still seen (erroneously) as a means to stimulate growth. As a result of such policies, inequality has been rising and population well-being steadily decreasing in many developed European nations - though not as fast as in the US.
It honestly makes little sense. For instance, even orthodox economists now admit that tax cuts are unlikely to have a lasting positive influence on growth so it's a bit baffling when the French ministry of finances relentlessly promotes that kind of policy.

For many years I assumed stupidity and greed were enough to explain why so many governments would cling to the neo-liberal agenda, despite it having been proved a complete failure. Only recently did I realize that promoting competition (between individuals and between nations) does make sense in a world facing an environmental crisis and dwindling resources (failing supply chains, to be accurate): if you keep assuming that growth is indispensable for population well-being, you'd rather have ruthless economic competition than open conflict.

To simplify: the problem is that Europeans (broadly speaking) still believe that well-being is tied to growth, and ironically, this belief is the main obstacle preventing governments from implementing policies that would promote well-being first and foremost - and adapt to the coming world. It's quite mind-boggling, unless you realize that the ideology of growth is what legitimates wealth and inequality... In other words, we're no longer talking about a rational economic system, but about a power structure.

8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

it is conceivable that well-being and growth rate dissociate once a certain level of social and economic development is reached.

It's been argued for quite some time - by any person being rational I would say.

 

Quote

 

3.3.6. Indicators

This theme is short and simple: (1) abandon GDP as a measure of social progress and replace it with a dashboard of indicators of social ecological health. If GDP is dominant in governance today, degrowth seeks to balance the importance given to economic indicators (e.g. GDP, profits, income, purchasing power) in comparison to social (e.g., happiness, health, inequality, political participation, leisure time) and ecological indicators (e.g. ecological and material footprint, biodiversity loss, global warming, deforestation, pollution). Examples of alternative indicators include the Genuine Progress Indicator (5 indicators), Gross National Happiness from Bhutan (33 indicators) or the Wellbeing Budgets adopted by Iceland (39 indicators), New Zealand (65 indicators) or Scotland (81 indicators).

 

 

[ThinkerX]

Climate activism coming under increasing official attack, complete with violence. The article is disturbing enough in its own right. The comments are downright terrifying as many of the posters whole heartedly support the violence.

The War on Climate Activism Is Reaching Dangerous New Heights (msn.com)

This past January, environmental activist Manuel Páez Terán, also known as Tortuguita, was shot dead by Georgia state troopers while protesting the construction of the $90 million Atlanta police and firefighter training facility known as Cop City.

Autopsies would later show that police had left 57 bullet wounds in Tortuguita’s body and that the victim had their hands up when officers began shooting them. Their killing would be important to remember, regardless of what they were fighting for, but it had an added significance: According to multiple reports, Tortuguita was the first person in modern US history to have been shot and killed by police in connection with climate activism.

Tortuguita’s death cannot be viewed in isolation. Their killing occurred just over a month after five Stop Cop City protesters were arrested and charged with domestic terrorism. Both incidents are part of a growing trend of state-sanctioned violence and repression against climate activists in the United States and other countries, such as the United Kingdom and France.

[The Anti-Targ]

Quote

“The right kind of resistance is peaceful, because that’s where we win,” they told me. “We’re not going to beat them at violence. They’re very, very good at violence. We’re not. We win through nonviolence. That’s really the only way we can win. We don’t want more people to die. We don’t want Atlanta to turn into a war zone.” - attributed to Manuel Páez Terán

Sadly it appears someone(s) at that forest occupation shot a cop, so someone other than a cop had a gun and did not ascribe to this doctrine of non-violence. And it was possibly Terán himself who's words differed from his deeds.

 

[Derfel Cadarn]

Southern Europe getting fucked by record heat. A region in Spain has a land temperature of 60c (140f)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66183069.amp

 

[Larry of the Lawn]

It's a dry heat though

[JGP]

1 hour ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

Southern Europe getting fucked by record heat. A region in Spain has a land temperature of 60c (140f)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66183069.amp

 

'But scientists can use the bubbles of air trapped in ancient Antarctic ice to estimate temperatures going back more than a million years.'

Measured by particulate composition, I suppose? That's neato.

 

'That data suggests that that last week was the hottest week for some 125,000 years.'

Not neato.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

1 hour ago, JGP said:

'But scientists can use the bubbles of air trapped in ancient Antarctic ice to estimate temperatures going back more than a million years.'

Measured by particulate composition, I suppose? That's neato.

 

'That data suggests that that last week was the hottest week for some 125,000 years.'

Not neato.

 

Meaningless fake news for those who believe (or say they believe) the Earth has only existed for less than 1/10th of that time.

[Corvinus85]

On 7/14/2023 at 2:17 PM, Larry of the Lake said:

It's a dry heat though

So is fire.