The Ned, Brandon, and Ashara timeline doesn't make sense.

[Corvo the Crow]

5 minutes ago, Arrow of the Morning said:

Brandon might be dead, but thething about Ned's honor is that it is not just about his personal conduct and public image, but also about the honor of the ones he love and he goes in great lenght to protect their honor even if he has to sacrifice his own. He for sure did it for Lyanna at the point of taking her child and saying he is his bastard son, something really dishonorable for him and that cause strain on his marriage. He might have done the same for Brandon, he for sure know about his brother sexual escapades, but he for sure never told Cat elyn about it. AnNed might have done the same for Ashara, the woman he loved, and hded the fact she was having a bastard.

 

Lyanna's case is irrelevant as it is entirely different. It is the safety of his nephew and a newborn babe that is the issue there, not the honor of Lyanna. If Aegon's head wasn't bashed in, if Rhaenys wasn't stabbed half a hundred times, then Ned may very well have declared Jon to be the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar. Ned sacrificed his honor not for someone else's honor but someone else's life. He sacrificed his honor two more times by not outright declaring Joff is a bastard and accepting the crime of treason, do you think he did it to protect the honor of Cersei? He did the first to protect the lives of Cersei's children and the second to protect his own children. 

[Arrow of the Morning]

58 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Lyanna's case is irrelevant as it is entirely different. It is the safety of his nephew and a newborn babe that is the issue there, not the honor of Lyanna. If Aegon's head wasn't bashed in, if Rhaenys wasn't stabbed half a hundred times, then Ned may very well have declared Jon to be the son of Lyanna and Rhaegar. Ned sacrificed his honor not for someone else's honor but someone else's life. He sacrificed his honor two more times by not outright declaring Joff is a bastard and accepting the crime of treason, do you think he did it to protect the honor of Cersei? He did the first to protect the lives of Cersei's children and the second to protect his own children. 

I agree that protecting Jon's life was also really important and with the death of the other Rhaegar's children still so fresh it would had impacted Ned's decision. But honor also plays a role in it. And Ned cares about the honor of the ones he love, so no, he was not protecting Cersei's honor and he meant to tell Robert about Cersei's treason and her children true parentage, but Robert' death prevented it.

[Corvo the Crow]

18 minutes ago, Arrow of the Morning said:

and he meant to tell Robert about Cersei's treason and her children true parentage, but Robert' death prevented it.

Planned, yes. Didn't immediately send word, which may have prevented his death by the way as Robert would rush back in a fury and don't have that encounter. He delayed it to give Cersei time to protect her children. Children play a huge part in Ned's decisions he sacrifices his own honor for the safety of children, not just his own children or even his relatives but all children, even bastards of incests like the Lanincester trio, even claimants like Dany. I don't recall anything in the text to even remotely suggest that Ned cares about the honor of his loved ones, nor would impregnating a random girl and a highborn lady at that, few short months before his marriage is honorable. So no, Ned's decisions has nothing to do with honor of his loved ones, especially Brandon's honor. In fact, his decisions also bring dishonor to his family at times, by accepting being a traitor, his children are all marked as gets of a traitor and in both Jon and Sansa chapters they are faced with the results of this numerous times. 

[Kal-L]

3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Literally the household of Starks, you know the house Brandon is part of, think of Ashara and Ned and not the other way around. Some of the household would definitely be in Harrenhal unless you suggest Starks had no escort travelling to Harrenhal, which won’t be happening. 

Quote. I'm eager to read which character you concocted to have enough proximity with the Lord Rickard's sons to know exactly what took place in the secrecy of Harrenhal. Please entertain me.

3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Allyria and Edric not being born also means nothing. Edric’s father was alive, many of their guards and servants would be alive and serving them at the time too.

Again speculation about people nowhere close to the protagonists of the discussion, I see.

3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Umm… did you read the part where I mentioned how Ashara and Brandon are dead? Literally no reason to cover for dead Brandon who was dead for a year even when Ashara died and both Ashara and Brandon are dead for over a decade when Edric would learn of this story so no Brandon isn’t the soon-to-wed heir, that needs his identity to be covered-and why would Daynes even cover for him in the first place?- he’s the long dead brother of the alive and wed Lord Ned who would suffer and could use cover more than Brandon. 

Yes that sounds exactly like Ned to bring on the fact it was actually his brutally murdered brother that had impregnated another noble lady just before marrying Cat. Sure that's Ned in a nutshell.

Who say the Daynes would be doing it for Brandon's sake ? The tragic love story of the dutiful second son and the fair lady of Starfall is definitely more "honorable" than the mindless fling of the soon-to-wed Stark and and some maid of Harrenhal. There was also no reason to correct the rumours, if this was the version that had been chosen before the Rebellion.

I remark that you conveniently omitted the part about Robert and Wylla. I see you cherry-pick whatever suit your narrative.

[Corvo the Crow]

2 hours ago, Kal-L said:

Quote. I'm eager to read which character you concocted to have enough proximity with the Lord Rickard's sons to know exactly what took place in the secrecy of Harrenhal. Please entertain me.

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Oh no, quotes from you first please as I'm more eager than you can be since we actually have at least three quotes that connect Ashara and Ned in an affair and to my knowledge exactly zero that connect Brandon in that way.

 

Quote

Again speculation about people nowhere close to the protagonists of the discussion, I see.

 

Not as speculative as you going on exactly nothing. These two are members of the Dayne family, unless you are going to suggest that they were told about the story by Bran warging a raven
and telling his version to save the honor of his namesake, they were told by a member of their family or household.

 

Quote

Yes that sounds exactly like Ned to bring on the fact it was actually his brutally murdered brother that had impregnated another noble lady just before marrying Cat. Sure that's Ned in a nutshell.

And it's exactly like Ned to come forward and say "oh hey it's me who was with Ashara" , especially considering his brother is now dead and that it  will be marrying her and spending a life with her? Sure, great logic there, would love to see you put that logic in numerous other mysteries of the books.

 

Quote

Who say the Daynes would be doing it for Brandon's sake ? The tragic love story of the dutiful second son and the fair lady of Starfall is definitely more "honorable" than the mindless fling of the soon-to-wed Stark and and some maid of Harrenhal. There was also no reason to correct the rumours, if this was the version that had been chosen before the Rebellion.

Chosen? Ok.  And why would they even choose this in the first place, and why would Ned even go with it? If Brandon is named, nothing will happen, he'll still be marrying to Cat, we see how Robert having a bastard was no problem for the marriage where as for Ned it may have caused serious problems, like having to marry to the girl that his brother impregnated. Surely not a situation that he'd have joy to be in and it gets worse since  how would he even be sure if his brother and wife would not keep on their affair now with the safe cover of Ned as a husband?

 

 

Quote

I remark that you conveniently omitted the part about Robert and Wylla. I see you cherry-pick whatever suit your narrative.

Yeah, you bet. I forgot it but here it is now.

 

 

Quote

Robert, Ned's best friend who grew with him and was there at Harrenhal spoke of Wylla -the mother of Ned's bastard- as someone special for making Lord Stark "forget about his honor for a hour". Wylla, Ashara there seem to be quite a lot of women turning the head of the supposed very honorable Ned... Unless the King (unlike random people like his wife) actually knew the rumours about Ashara Dayne were bullshit and simply ignored them.

Is this the same Robert that noticed how his future wife was tilting as KotLT? Or the one that noticed how his betrothed was swooning over Rhaegar when he was singing? Or the Robert that masterfully connected the dots when his bestie returned with the bones of his betrothed, you know the girl that everyone assumes to be raped hundreds of times by Rhaegar, Lyanna, and the infant that Ned conveniently procured out of nowhere when he was returning from Dorne, the place he found Lyanna? Surely it must be, Nothing escapes from this Robert's most perceptive eyes it seems. Since he hates it so much he should stop being a king and open Westeros' first PI agency perhaps. He sure is a great dick as we all know. 

Robert most likely pushed Ned with his questions and he gave the name of the milkmaid or even saw the milkmaid and assumed/was told by Ned that Wylla was the mother. 

 

Oh how you must've thought that I've omitted the dumbest part of your argument because of how solid it was 

Edited July 26, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On 6/8/2023 at 6:37 PM, James Arryn said:

I’m not sure Ned’s memories of Brandon are all that monochromatic. I detect notes of bitterness, envy and slight disapproval along with older brother crush stuff. 

I may be wrong ,but I feel the bitterness toward Brandon was due to his dying , and Ned force to live Brandon's life .

[John Suburbs]

On 6/8/2023 at 4:24 PM, maesternewton said:

Whether or not it's Ned or Brandon, the problem with theories that state the father of Ashara's baby was a Stark is that the timelines don't make sense.

Most of the theories state that Ashara's babe was conceived during the Tourney of Harrenhal, which happens in 281 AC. Since this is where Barristan states she was dishonored by a Stark.

But part of the reason why Ashara dies by suicide is because she has a stillborn daughter. If her daughter was conceived during the Tourney, then it does not make sense for that to be the cause that makes her jump off a tower since by 283 AC, the year Ashara dies, the baby would have been already dead.

If then the baby was not conceived during the tourney in Harrenhal, then it could not be Brandon since after the Tourney he dies and could not be Ned, since he spends most of his time fighting a war.

Looking at the wiki, it seems like the Tourney of Harrenhal occured close to the end of the year, since it happens in 281 AC but it is stated Brandon dies in 282 AC. And after leaving the Tourney Brandon goes to Riverrun.

There's all kinds of wiggle room here.

Is the man who dishonored her at Harrenhal the Stark that Selmy mentions a moment later? Or did she turn to Stark after being dishonored by another?

Is the Stark necessarily Ned or Brandon? There was a third Stark there too, and his whereabouts are unaccounted for after the tourney. Heck, there was a fourth Stark as well, if we want to get really weird.

Does Selmy know the reason Ashara killed herself? He wasn't there, so this is just what he's been told. But by whom? Is she really even dead? Was she ever really pregnant?

And since Ashara's death is bound up in the RLJ cover-up, there is every reason to believe that Selmy does not know the real truth.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On 6/8/2023 at 4:24 PM, maesternewton said:

Whether or not it's Ned or Brandon, the problem with theories that state the father of Ashara's baby was a Stark is that the timelines don't make sense.

Most of the theories state that Ashara's babe was conceived during the Tourney of Harrenhal, which happens in 281 AC. Since this is where Barristan states she was dishonored by a Stark.

But part of the reason why Ashara dies by suicide is because she has a stillborn daughter. If her daughter was conceived during the Tourney, then it does not make sense for that to be the cause that makes her jump off a tower since by 283 AC, the year Ashara dies, the baby would have been already dead.

If then the baby was not conceived during the tourney in Harrenhal, then it could not be Brandon since after the Tourney he dies and could not be Ned, since he spends most of his time fighting a war.

Looking at the wiki, it seems like the Tourney of Harrenhal occured close to the end of the year, since it happens in 281 AC but it is stated Brandon dies in 282 AC. And after leaving the Tourney Brandon goes to Riverrun.

It fits . Ned and Ashara fell in love at the Tourney of Harrenhal . Ashara was not nail to the floor nor was Ned . And Brandon there is no evidence that , outside of introducing Ned to Ashara he had an intimate relationship with her .

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

On 7/25/2023 at 6:47 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

Oh no, quotes from you first please as I'm more eager than you can be since we actually have at least three quotes that connect Ashara and Ned in an affair and to my knowledge exactly zero that connect Brandon in that way.

Apologies for bumping an old thread, I haven’t posted here much in a while and have been sifting through threads from prior months and I find this debate interesting so I hope my late comment is alright.

I’m personally in the camp that thinks Brandon got Ashara pregnant, and the Ned rumors are meant to be a red herring for R + L and Brandon is the twist on what the actual truth was with Ashara. I’m first going to lay out reasons why I don’t find the evidence for Ned in the early books convincing, and then why I think Barristan’s POV points to Brandon.

In the 3 quotes (Catelyn, Cersei, Ned Dayne) about Ned and Ashara having something romantic (I’m not counting Meera’s story since it doesn’t confirm anything romantic beyond a dance), there are 3 claims made about Ned Stark’s love life: 1) He and Ashara conceived Jon together (the story Catelyn heard and one of the accusations Cersei flings) 2) Ned conceived Jon with Wylla (what Ned Dayne was told) 3) Ned and Ashara fell in love at Harrenhal (what Ned Dayne was told by Allyria). If you accept that R + L = J then we know that the specific claim being made about Ned’s love life in these stories is false at a minimum for all except the Harrenhal story. That doesn’t mean the Harrenhal story must be false too but I think it does give a reason to be skeptical of what we are being told in these stories.

On 7/25/2023 at 6:47 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

Not as speculative as you going on exactly nothing. These two are members of the Dayne family, unless you are going to suggest that they were told about the story by Bran warging a raven
and telling his version to save the honor of his namesake, they were told by a member of their family or household.

I don’t think we can confidently say that Allyria’s source is reliable when we literally do not know who it is or whether that person had first hand knowledge themselves. Ashara was at Harrenhal as Elia’s companion, other Arthur (there as a KG) we don’t know if any other Daynes or their household members were there so it’s entirely possible that the rumor just caught on there the same as it did elsewhere. Doesn’t automatically mean it’s true. It’s also possible that the person who told Allyria this thought a story about Ashara having a chivalrous romance with the honorable Ned Stark before he was promised to anyone is a nicer story to tell than that she got knocked up by his playboy brother who was betrothed to Catelyn Tully. We know Ned Dayne has been told one lie about Ned Stark’s love life, absent more info it’s not crazy to think Allyria was told another.

 

 

This example is illustrative of the broader pattern of these stories about Ned and Ashara where the credibility becomes more and more questionable the more you scrutinize. Hearing it from a Dayne citing Ashara’s sister and it seems like a slam dunk confirmation but then you put the pieces together and realize Allyria is almost certainly too young to have firsthand knowledge.

You’ve argued that Winterfell household members are a reliable source, but at the end of the day Catelyn’s story involves third hand rumors that originated from anonymous soldiers who cited not the tourney at Harrenhal but his trip to Starfall as the basis for Ashara Dayne being Jon’s mother. We know that no soldiers besides Howland were with Ned by that point so they’re gossiping about something they don’t have firsthand knowledge of, and as established we know the specific rumor here is false. We also know from Sansa that in the present people at Winterfell whisper about Jon’s mother being a commoner. There’s a lot of reason to be dubious about credibility here.

Cersei’s accusation also reflects this. At first it seems like more support as it shows the rumor about Jon being their son wasn’t limited to Winterfell. But then you have to consider a) Cersei’s reliability (lol) b) the fact that she says it in the same breath as two wild and baseless accusations that Ned fathered Jon on a whore or a Dornish peasant he raped.  Perhaps a hint that the third accusation is no more credible? C) R + L = J means once again that we know the specific claim made here is false d) Ned has zero reaction to Cersei throwing Ashara’s name in his face, the only mention she gets in Ned’s POV. It’s hard enough for me to buy that Ned never thinks of Ashara once (despite repeatedly lingering on painful memories around Lyanna and others), it’s harder to buy that he has no reaction to Cersei bringing her up like this, and it’s even more difficult to buy when we get to Barristan’s POV and see that if Ned was Ashara’s lover that they conceived a child and Ned drove her to suicide. 
 

That brings me to Barristan’s POV. I see you believe that she did get pregnant by “Stark” and that Allyria is their child so I won’t spend any time here critiquing the arguments against “Stark” being the man who “dishonored her” or that this language isn’t referring to anything sexual. I can go either way on Allyria being Ashara’s daughter and I don’t think it changes the argument here much.

I think Brandon fits better here at a broad level because a) Barristan seems to like and respect Ned in a way that I don’t think he would if he thought Ned dishonored the woman he loved and drove her to suicide b) Barristan thinks Ashara committed suicide out of “grief” for the stillborn child and perhaps the man who dishonored her. I’m not saying grief can never be used outside of the context of mourning loss due to death, but that is the most common usage and is clearly how it’s being used in that sentence with regards to the child, so I think there’s a good chance this line is meant to imply the man was dead by that time. Brandon is the only Stark male at Harrenhal who fits that parameter. c) Brandon seems much more the type to get a highborn maiden pregnant out of wedlock. I think Barbey’s story and GRRM’s comments establish that Brandon was promiscuous and Ned certainly isn’t. Part of what makes the R+L twist work so well IMO is the realization that Ned wouldn’t father a bastard, but he would lie about it in order to protect his dead sister’s son. If Ned was in fact the kind of guy to father a bastard, but it just wasn’t Jon, then this doesn’t work so neatly. 
 
Going off the last part about Ned and Brandon’s natures, there’s a passage elsewhere in Barristan’s POV that is about Dany and Quentyn, but IMO is close to a smoking gun indicating that Brandon is “Stark.” 
 

Quote

That one is his father's son. Short and stocky, plain-faced, he seemed a decent lad, sober, sensible, dutiful … but not the sort to make a young girl's heart beat faster. And Daenerys Targaryen, whatever else she might be, was still a young girl, as she herself would claim when it pleased her to play the innocent. Like all good queens she put her people first—else she would never have wed Hizdahr zo Loraq—but the girl in her still yearned for poetry, passion, and laughter. She wants fire, and Dorne sent her mud.

You could make a poultice out of mud to cool a fever. You could plant seeds in mud and grow a crop to feed your children. Mud would nourish you, where fire would only consume you, but fools and children and young girls would choose fire every time.

Barristan describes Quentyn in terms that match Ned Stark perfectly - sober, sensible, dutiful. Ned wasn’t said to be stocky or particularly short, but we know from Catelyn’s POV that he was shorter than Brandon and also plain-faced, at least compared to his older brother. Ned is the archetypical “mud” man, and Brandon, the good-looking, cocky, hot-headed playboy, was definitely a “fire” man. Barristan’s view that young girls will pick “fire” over “mud” every time makes little sense if the one woman he ever loved hooked up with Ned Stark of all people despite being basically the most beautiful maiden in the realm at the time.

I know this is long just wanted to get as many of thoughts out there as I could. Respond as much or as little as you’d like and anyone else reading this feel free to chime in.

Edited December 14, 2023 by ATaleofSalt&Onions

[Hippocras]

Looked "to" and looked "at" do not mean the same thing.

Looked "to" Stark, a small thought in B.S.'s head, connected as it was to his thoughts about Ashara being dishonoured, is literally the ONLY thing that makes people think Ashara's pregnancy was from relations with a Stark, be it Ned or Brandon. But it is a mis-reading of English. If there is any kind of red herring in the Ashara story, that deliberate use of misleading language by GRRM is the clue.

Furthermore, everything we know about Brandon's playboy persona comes from very late in the series. In the early books all we get is that he was a bit hot tempered but had a sense of honour (taking off his armour when Petyr had none for their duel for example). If GRRM wanted to suggest that Brandon was the father, then hints about Brandon's sex life would have come earlier. Ned would have not remembered his brother so fondly if he got the girl Ned had a crush on pregnant while he was already betrothed, and while knowing full well about Ned's infatuation since it was Brandon who arranged for them to dance in the first place.

So no. I really do not buy the Brandon theory.

Edited December 14, 2023 by Hippocras

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

11 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Looked "to" and looked "at" do not mean the same thing.

In context I don’t buy the idea that Barristan is referring to something unrelated to sex/romance. Let’s review the full quote:

Quote

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?

The entire lead up to “might she have looked to me instead of Stark?” is about how she died never knowing how Barristan felt because no good could come of telling her due to his vow of celibacy. He then ponders that nothing good came of staying silent and wonders if things would have been different if he hadn’t. In that context I think the most natural reading by far is that he’s wondering if she would have hooked up with him instead of “Stark” if he had told her. Why else reference the vow of celibacy and how nothing good could have come from telling her?

 

12 hours ago, Hippocras said:

is literally the ONLY thing that makes people think Ashara's pregnancy was from relations with a Stark, be it Ned or Brandon.

I don’t think that’s true. The only man Ashara is ever suggested to have slept with or fell in love with before this passage is Ned Stark.

12 hours ago, Hippocras said:

If there is any kind of red herring in the Ashara story, that deliberate use of misleading language by GRRM is the clue.

I think the ambiguous language by GRRM is very deliberate but IMO it’s because he’s trying to set up the twist that it was Brandon without giving it away, when up to this point we’ve been told Ned is the Stark Ashara had a thing with. If “looked to” is really meant to be a red herring itself and doesn’t have anything to do with her getting pregnant, why not just have Barristan specify which Stark he’s referring to?

 

12 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Furthermore, everything we know about Brandon's playboy persona comes from very late in the series

I don’t see how bringing up Brandon’s history in the same book that we get this passage about Ashara getting pregnant and “looking to” Stark is a point against the theory being right. Book 5 out of 7 is not the very end of the series and while Ashara has an outsized presence in fan theorizing this is ultimately a fairly minor mystery in the grand scheme of things about a character who has been mentioned a half dozen times in 5 books. Establishing that Brandon was a playboy in book 5 and hinting that he fathered her child (with her pregnancy also being established in the same book) and then revealing it in the next book is perfectly fine writing.

12 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Ned would have not remembered his brother so fondly if he got the girl Ned had a crush on pregnant while he was already betrothed, and while knowing full well about Ned's infatuation since it was Brandon who arranged for them to dance in the first place.

I don’t think Ned recalls Brandon in a particularly fond manner and Brandon getting brutally murdered might just have dampened any enmity Ned felt over Ashara. Furthermore, I don’t think it’s at all clear that Ned did have a crush on Ashara. The story says Ned was “too shy to leave his bench.” That’s commonly interpreted as “Ned was crushing on Ashara but was too scared to ask her” and that’s a plausible reading but I think it very well may mean that he was too shy in general to dance and socialize and so his more outgoing older brother asked a pretty girl to do him a favor and dance with his square little brother. If Ned really did love Ashara I find his complete lack of reaction when Cersei brings her up or her absence from his memory of Harrenhal to be puzzling.

[Hippocras]

There are no answers here until GRRM finishes the books. Because of that I feel like this debate is endless, so will not engage beyond this post. 

16 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

In context I don’t buy the idea that Barristan is referring to something unrelated to sex/romance. Let’s review the full quote:

Starting here. In a society such as Westeros there are really not very many roles available to women. Basically she can be one thing and maintain status in her later life: a wife. Yet having a bastard, even in Dorne, can somewhat complicate the husband search.

Looked "to" in English means either simply a destination/direction (like "looked to the East") or it implies a need for help or answers. A GOAL, as opposed to an object of interest. Outside of this endless circular Ashara debate I don't think I have ever seen it written that way to imply sexual interest. Even if an example does exist it is odd and rare. So while the rest of the quote does seem to lead in the direction of sexual interest, I would agree, to me it is that added context that is where GRRM is deliberately misleading. It is Barristan's private thoughts, and he makes assumptions.  Since "looked to Stark" could mean any Stark (Ned, Brandon, even Lyanna), choosing to believe GRRM intended to indicated Brandon instead of Ned simply does not at all answer why he chose to use "looked to" instead of "looked at".

If you assume that Ashara wanted some kind of help, not sex, the most obvious (though not only) possibility is that she was already pregnant (which B.S. was not aware of). That child needed a cover story because of who the father was, because someone (probably Aerys) would be angered to know that child's true identity. So Ashara needed a husband/lover who might be persuaded to pretend that child was his. 

If this proposal is true (Ashara was already pregnant), who are the candidates for secret father:

1. Rhaegar. Elia of Dorne might die if she has another child. But Rhaegar is absolutely certain that he needs to have 3 children who will become the 3 heads of the dragon. Ashara, being Elia's companion, is both determined to spare Elia the threat to her life of bearing more children, and is less squeamish about bastards than someone not from Dorne might be. But the problem is that paranoid King Aerys cannot know. 

2. Llewyn Martell. He is known to have had a paramour. One who came with him and Elia from Dorne is not an unlikely hypothesis. Ashara fits. And, as a Kingsguard, the true father of his child would very much need to be kept secret.

3. Aerys himself. The explanation here is more complicated and speculative, so I will just leave it here as an option without starting a side debate.

In short, what Barristan THINKS happened, and what actually happened are not the same thing. Noone actually tells BS anything or trusts him with their complicated or dirty secrets. As a guy from a Marcher Lord House he would actually be the LAST person any of the Dornish characters in this story would confide their secrets to. You can't take what B.S. thinks at face value, no matter how honourable and earnest the man is (in fact BECAUSE of those things). Maybe that is why his initials are B.S.

 

16 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

The only man Ashara is ever suggested to have slept with or fell in love with before this passage is Ned Stark.

The only people who believe Ned and Ashara ever had sex are people who have no reason at all to believe it except for the fact that there are pregnancies/bastards that require an explanation. Noone has any EVIDENCE. They are just trying, long after the fact, to piece together how Ned ended up with a bastard, and Ashara a pregnancy.

 

16 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

If “looked to” is really meant to be a red herring itself and doesn’t have anything to do with her getting pregnant, why not just have Barristan specify which Stark he’s referring to?

GRRM is very careful with his misdirection. He wants you to speculate on ambiguity, but also speculate in entirely the wrong direction. He doesn't want us, in the end, to find it too obvious how and why he is misleading us. This is why he added Lady Dustin's sex life in the later books. Of course he wants you to think it might be Brandon! That does not mean it is.
 

16 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

... while Ashara has an outsized presence in fan theorizing this is ultimately a fairly minor mystery in the grand scheme of things

Is it? I am not so sure. Let's say Rhaegar or Aerys was the father. That would mean her child was a "dragon".  I would say that would be pretty important.

Or even if your theory is correct. That would mean that Ashara's child, if in fact alive, might be able to contest the right of Ned's children to Winterfell. Also not at all insignificant.

 

16 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don’t think Ned recalls Brandon in a particularly fond manner

Ned buried Brandon in the crypts even though he was never a Lord of Winterfell or King of Winter. It specifically says he did this because he was so fond of him. In his memories, Ned thinks Brandon always knew the right thing to do. Ned would not think that of someone who, although already betrothed and soon to be married to Catelyn, decided to get another girl pregnant just because he could. We know who Ned was, and we know what would happen to any respect he had for his brother if he had done that. He would CERTAINLY not have then gone out of his way to give Brandon a place of honour in the crypts.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Hippocras

[Springwatch]

22 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

If Ned really did love Ashara I find his complete lack of reaction when Cersei brings her up or her absence from his memory of Harrenhal to be puzzling.

Ned is a puzzling guy - we know he suppresses his inner life, otherwise thoughts of Lyanna would automatically lead to Jon, and vice versa. But his part in the story is dishonourable (the lies), so he shies away.

His part in Ashara's story is dishonourable too, as the rumoured father of her child, the one who killed her brother and drove her to suicide when he abandoned her for another. Honourable Ned would find this almost unbearable. And if Ashara was his first true love (I think so), he'd be frantic with rage and shame - and it shows, when his innocent teenage bride very reasonably asks for the truth of the rumour, Ned loses control and behaves like a shit: That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. “Never ask me about Jon,” he said, cold as ice. Totally out of character.

Over the years, he's learned to deal with it better.

Thanks for reviving the thread by the way, so many good points on all sides. I agree Brandon sounds more fire than Ned, but I don't think he went after Ashara.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

10 hours ago, Hippocras said:

choosing to believe GRRM intended to indicated Brandon instead of Ned simply does not at all answer why he chose to use "looked to" instead of "looked at".

To put it simply, I don't think the semantic difference here is nearly as important as you're making it out to be. He could be saying "looked to me instead of Stark" for sex, romance, etc. and it would make just as much sense as "looked to me for help on some problem she had that is never established or hinted at in this passage and is completely unrelated to Barristan's musing about how no good could have come from telling her due to his vow of celibacy." I think her already being pregnant is unlikely, nothing suggests it elsewhere (the only child she's rumored to have been the mother of was born around 2 years later) and line about the man who dishonored her at Harrenhal, while ambiguous enough to not be conclusive, lends the most support to the notion that she got pregnant there.

10 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The only people who believe Ned and Ashara ever had sex are people who have no reason at all to believe it except for the fact that there are pregnancies/bastards that require an explanation. Noone has any EVIDENCE. They are just trying, long after the fact, to piece together how Ned ended up with a bastard, and Ashara a pregnancy.

I don't think Ned had sex with Ashara (obviously), I'm just pointing out that people would clearly speculate about at least one Stark being the father of the stillborn child if the line about "looked to Stark" was excluded. Furthermore, do you not see a double standard in how you're measuring evidence for Ashara + a Stark compared to the alternatives you lay out? Whether you think the evidence is strong or not, literally every time Ashara is mentioned in the story contains one of the following: a) an assertion that she had a child with Ned Stark b) an assertion that she fell in love with Ned Stark at Harrenhal c) a story that she shared a dance with Ned at Harrenhal after Brandon asked or d) an ambiguous story that references her having a stillborn child, being dishonored at Harrenhal, and "looking to" "Stark." Not a single Ashara mention in the story lacks a reference to a Stark man in some form. By contrast, Rhaegar, Lewyn, and Aerys are literally never mentioned in any context having to do with her, and the evidence for them is purely based on speculation. Rhaegar didn't know Elia couldn't have more children until after Harrenhal, Lewyn's lover could have been literally anyone, and that Aerys is a rapist doesn't mean he raped Ashara, who he's never connected to in any way by the text.

10 hours ago, Hippocras said:

GRRM is very careful with his misdirection. He wants you to speculate on ambiguity, but also speculate in entirely the wrong direction. He doesn't want us, in the end, to find it too obvious how and why he is misleading us. This is why he added Lady Dustin's sex life in the later books. Of course he wants you to think it might be Brandon! That does not mean it is.

Up to this point in the story he's had multiple characters explicitly state that Ned and Ashara had a child together or fell in love. Those stories were not ambiguous at all, it was plainly stated. If the entire story of her and Ned being in love is a fakeout from Ned helping her out with something else, why not just specify him in this passage? What is the point of cryptically hinting at Brandon when Ned is already a red herring that the reader had already been primed to believe was involved with Ashara?

10 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Is it? I am not so sure. Let's say Rhaegar or Aerys was the father. That would mean her child was a "dragon".  I would say that would be pretty important.

Or even if your theory is correct. That would mean that Ashara's child, if in fact alive, might be able to contest the right of Ned's children to Winterfell. Also not at all insignificant.

You can speculate whatever you want, but if we're just going off of what we know from the text so far, she is a character briefly mentioned half a dozen times across five books. Could she theoretically grow a lot in importance? Sure, but there's no reason her story has to play a huge part in the resolution of the books given what we have so far. In addition, there's no evidence beyond speculation that she had a kid by Rhaegar or Aerys, and a bastard of Brandon or Ned's raised in Dorne would not be any serious threat to Ned's kids inheriting Winterfell, even if the truth was revealed publicly (which I doubt it would be) and there was enough room in the story for such a plotline to unfold (which I doubt there is given how much work that would entail and how much GRRM already needs to write in two books).

10 hours ago, Hippocras said:

In his memories, Ned thinks Brandon always knew the right thing to do.

No, he says that in this context from Catelyn's POV:

Quote

And I was only twelve when my father promised me to your brother Brandon.

That brought a bitter twist to Ned's mouth. "Brandon. Yes. Brandon would know what to do. He always did. It was all meant for Brandon. You, Winterfell, everything. He was born to be a King's Hand and a father to queens. I never asked for this cup to pass to me."

 This does not sound like Ned sincerely saying Brandon always knew what the right thing to do was, he's reacting bitterly to Catelyn bringing up his name. There are multiple reasons for him to react that way, and I'm not saying it proves he hated him or that Brandon swooped on his crush, just that it goes against the idea that Brandon clearly brings up nothing but fond memories in Ned's head. As I said, I'm skeptical Ned even had a crush, and if he did then Brandon hooking up with a girl Ned barely knew probably seemed unimportant after he was brutally murdered along with their father.

[Ser Arthurs Dawn]

11 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Maybe that is why his initials are B.S.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

Ned is a puzzling guy - we know he suppresses his inner life, otherwise thoughts of Lyanna would automatically lead to Jon, and vice versa. But his part in the story is dishonourable (the lies), so he shies away.

I think Lyanna is actually a revealing comparison for the exact opposite reason - it shows that Ned can repeatedly think about painful memories involving a lost loved one that hint at important mysteries in the story without explicitly revealing any twists. Lyanna is mentioned 22 times in Ned's POV, Ashara only once when Cersei brings her up. It would have been very easy for GRRM to write a vague, ambiguous line about that name making him sad or hurt without giving away why and I think it's telling that he didn't.

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

and it shows, when his innocent teenage bride very reasonably asks for the truth of the rumour, Ned loses control and behaves like a shit: That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. “Never ask me about Jon,” he said, cold as ice. Totally out of character.

I think this memory from Catelyn is part of the N + A red herring in AGOT that's meant to distract from R + L. At the surface it seems like Catelyn's suspicion is valid, or at least hitting at some sore spot in Ned's past relating to Ashara, but let's keep in mind two things: 1) Ned's immediate reaction is to demand she never ask about Jon, and only after firmly addressing that does he ask where she heard Ashara's name 2) An observant reader can uncover the truth in AGOT that Jon is actually the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, which explains why Ned would react so sternly to Catelyn bringing this topic up the way she did. IMO it reflects him wanting to shut down any inquiry by Catelyn into Jon's parentage and quash the rumors going around Winterfell, not necessarily any love he had for Ashara (though I also think an honorable guy like Ned would not want people to be spreading false gossip about a dead woman in his castle).

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

To put it simply, I don't think the semantic difference here is nearly as important as you're making it out to be

I agree. More than that, actually. I think in this context, in this sentence, “at” would be a very strange choice tbh; “to” works much better imo.

[Hippocras]

15 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I agree. More than that, actually. I think in this context, in this sentence, “at” would be a very strange choice tbh; “to” works much better imo.

Examples:

"Bran looked to his lord father for rescue, but got only a frown, a furrowed brow. "Hullen speaks truly, son. Better a swift death than a hard one from cold and starvation."

Bran needed something.

""She knows," Catelyn said. "Lysa is impulsive, yes, but this message was carefully planned, cleverly hidden. She knew it meant death if her letter fell into the wrong hands. To risk so much, she must have had more than mere suspicion." Catelyn looked to her husband. "Now we truly have no choice. You must be Robert's Hand. You must go south with him and learn the truth."" 

Catelyn needed Ned to accept becoming Hand.

"Myrcella blinked at her and looked to her ladies for guidance. But if she was uncertain, Septa Mordane was not. "Just where do you think you are going, Arya?" the septa demanded."

Myrcella needed guidance.

"Grand Maester Pycelle looked to Littlefinger and asked, "Will the treasury bear the expense?""

Pycelle needed LF to find money.

"Jon shook off Pyp's hand. "Halder, enough."

Halder looked to Ser Alliser."

 

Halder needed Ser Alliser's authority.

 

"Littlefinger was the last. As Ned looked to him, Lord Petyr stifled a yawn. "When you find yourself in bed with an ugly woman, the best thing to do is close your eyes and get on with it," he declared. "Waiting won't make the maid any prettier. Kiss her and be done with it.""

 

Ned needed someone else on the small council to agree with him that murdering children is not ok.

 

"A low murmuring filled the High Hall. He had her, Tyrion knew. He was highborn, the son of the most powerful lord in the realm, the brother of the queen. He could not be denied a trial. Guardsmen in sky-blue cloaks had started toward Tyrion, but Ser Vardis bid them halt and looked to Lady Lysa."

 

Vardis needed Lysa's authority.

 

"The queen looked to her husband. "If any man had dared speak to a Targaryen as he has spoken to you—""

Cersei needed Robert to be provoked so that she would get her way.

 

"Catelyn looked to Ser Rodrik. Her master-at-arms gave a curt shake of his head. "He wants to make Ser Vardis chase him. The weight of armor and shield will tire even the strongest man.""

 

Catelyn needed Ser Rodrik to explain the fight strategy, not being a fighter herself.

 

"What Eddard Stark was doing sitting there he would never comprehend, yet there he sat, and these people looked to him for justice."

Explains itself.

 

I could keep going through the entire series in this way. Plenty of examples of "looked to", and yet the instance we are discussing is the only one where there is the slightest hint of sexual interest, and that is misdirection created by the text that follows. Read on its own, "If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark?" does not read as sexual at all. She wasn't some slut who was looking to hook up with anyone who fancied her. Random casual sex is not a goal it is a desire. Even that statement makes it very clear that Ashara needed something. So even if what is implied is that she needed a man, and a fighter, clearly someone sexy to hook up with who could never possibly marry her is NOT what we are talking about here. Every single person present at that tournament knew that Brandon was about to marry Catelyn Tully including Ashara.

 

I am not making something out of nothing. Reading "looked to" as a desire for a hookup with no possible marriage prospects is simply sloppy. That would be without a goal, and "looked to" always implies there is a goal.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Hippocras

[kissdbyfire]

From Oxford Languages on Google:

4. 

rely on to do or provide something.

"she will look to you for help"

I think you’re considering “look to” only in its literal sense, as in, to look directly at something/someone. And that’s not what Martin meant in the sentence. 

[Hippocras]

28 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I think you’re considering “look to” only in its literal sense, as in, to look directly at something/someone. And that’s not what Martin meant in the sentence. 

Who is?

This definition is exactly what I am trying to explain, and why I provided a large list of examples. "Looked to" implies there is a goal, something the person doing the looking needs from someone else. Random sexual hookups are not a need. A husband could be, but Brandon could never be that.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Hippocras