Catelyn Stark was right, about basically everything

[csuszka1948]

45 minutes ago, sifth said:

Robb would have to be a complete idiot to trade Jamie for only Sansa and a few sons of his bannermen. The point stills stands, Tywin had no one of Jamie's worth to trade. He even says as much at the end of the first book, when he's angry over Cersei and Joffrey killing Ned. He knows he no longer has anyone to trade who's of Jamie's worth and therefore peacefully trading someone for Jamie is now impossible.

 

Yes, this was at the end of AGOT. After the deaths of Rickon and Bran, Sansa became Robb's heir, which greatly changes the calculations.

[csuszka1948]

I also think that trusting Littlefinger about the knife was correct, I would have done the same in her position.

 

The idea that LF would lie about the ownership of the knife is preposterous. If Tyrion was arrested by Ned upon his arrival or the lie of LF otherwise discovered, he would turn both the Starks and the Lannisters against him and lose his position and perhaps even his life. What does he gain by lying? Increasing the Stark-Lannister animosity? There is just no obvious motive for him to do so, it looks an insane gamble.

 

I think a large problem of Cat is that she is being played by both Lysa and LF, and what LF (kickstarting a war and chaos so that he might rise higher and have his revenge, risking his high position) and Lysa (killing her husband, betraying her family) are doing is insanity by Westerosi feudal and political standards. Nobody in Cat's position would assume that LF and Lysa are scheming against her.

Edited July 11, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Craving Peaches]

31 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Nobody in Cat's position would assume that LF and Lysa are scheming against her.

At the same time, there was no reason to blindly trust them either. Catelyn tells Ned that he shouldn't assume things about Robert just because he knew him before, but by the same token Catelyn should not be making assumptions about Petyr and Lysa, given she hasn't seen them for years either.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

Yes, this was at the end of AGOT. After the deaths of Rickon and Bran, Sansa became Robb's heir, which greatly changes the calculations.

If only she was able to convince Robb of this instead of breaking Jamie out of prison. 

[Bendric Dayne]

I think Cat gets some unfair smack for releasing Jaime. Trading Jaime for Sansa seems like a pretty stupid move when we ignore everything else. But she is in a situation in which she is convinced the Karstarks are going to kill Jaime for vengeance. We only have Cat's perspective here so maybe she was exaggerating and the Karstarks weren't going to do that, but I highly doubt that. First off, no one around her, not even Robb told her she was crazy for believing the Karstarks were going to kill Jaime, it seems like everyone knew that was going to happen. Second, the fact that the Karstarks go on to kill two innocent Lannister boys, tells us that they would have definitely murdered Jaime. So if you are in Cat's position, you have no reason to just let them kill Jaime since that gives her a 0% chance of getting her daughters back, and like a 99% chance that the Lannisters kill her daughters. So that wouldn't accomplish anything, and would also hurt Robb the same amount as letting Jaime go because either way he just loses his bargaining chip. Her best option at that point was to let Jaime go because it could be in no way worse than letting someone kill him; even if she believed that chances of him keeping his word and bringing his daughters back was 1%, it was better than the 0% of him doing that if he got killed. Idk why everyone acts as though the options were keeping him locked up as their prisoners until there came a good chance of them leveraging him, or letting him go. Her options were to let him die (in which case the Lannisters would likely kill Sansa) or let him go and hope that there is still a shred of good in him so that she can at least get her daughters back. 

[Groo]

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

Tyrion has recognized her and she reasonably believed that Tyrion would tell his siblings that Catelyn and Ned are 'onto them' (because she was heading north and tried to hide herself)

So, to hide the fact that she was in the Riverlands, she publicly arrests Tyrion in the middle of the Riverlands? Sure.

Arresting Tyrion was nothing but rash. The danger this put Ned and her daughters in wasn't even the biggest issue. Hoster Tully's daughter arrests Tywin Lannister's son in the middle of the Riverlands using Tully bannermen. She then takes Tywin Lannister's son to Hoster Tully's other daughter, who puts him on trial for his life. Catelyn started an obvious war between the Lannisters and Tullys.

She wasn't trying to protect Ned. She could have accomplished that by sending Rodrick Cassel riding back to King's Landing to warn Ned that she'd been spotted by Tyrion. No, the future Lady Stoneheart wanted to get her hands on the man she believed tried to kill her son. Consequences be damned.

[Castellan]

It is a horrible sadness and a great bit of plotting by GRRM that her decision to release jaime causes her own death and that of Robb and his bannermen because it was only Jaime's incarceration that was holding up Tywin from giving the go-ahead for the Red Wedding.

[Alester Florent]

12 minutes ago, Bendric Dayne said:

I think Cat gets some unfair smack for releasing Jaime.

To be clear, I get why Cat did it, even if I don't agree, and I don't hate her for it or anything. I just think it's an example of her getting one of the big calls wrong, even if for understandable reasons, and thus a counterexample to the OP's premise that Cat is always right.

[Groo]

4 hours ago, Tradecraft said:

-Catelyn was right to tell Robb to keep his direwolf close at all times and to not trust people that Greywind didn't like. 

-She sensed the red wedding as coming and slapped Edwyn Frey for his deception (wearing armor under his silks).  

 

Didn't listen to her own advice, did she? She threw her body in front of Greywind to protect the Freys.

Does it require much insight or wit to realize that a hostile person wearing hidden armor at a wedding is a threat?

[sifth]

A prison break is not a prisoner exchange. I'm sorry, but if you literally have to bust someone out of jail, then that person was never your prisoner to begin with.

[SaffronLady]

Regarding Cat and Tyrion, should we take the imp's own ideas into account?

Quote

All his life Tyrion had prided himself on his cunning, the only gift the gods had seen fit to give him, yet this seven-times-damned she-wolf Catelyn Stark had outwitted him at every turn. The knowledge was more galling than the bare fact of his abduction.

A Game of Thrones, Chapter 31, Tyrion IV.

[Corvo the Crow]

13 hours ago, Tradecraft said:

Robb should have kept his marriage pact with the Freys (cost him everything at the Red Wedding) like Cat wanted. 

Catelyn also thinks he should’ve fallen for Margaery and I think she made a very bad call of immediately running back to Riverlands after Renly died when in fact she should’ve immediately rushed off to Renly’s infantry where Margaery was to arrange a betrothal between her and Robb and also Sansa and Willas. Freys can be handled through other means. 

 

13 hours ago, Tradecraft said:

Releasing Jaime Lannister wasn't the worst call. He lost his hand in the Riverlands and so he's no longer a fighter (something she couldn't have foreseen?). He might have gotten Sansa Stark released if he had the chance in KL. I'd call this a wash/ neutral decision on cat's part. 

No, it was worst call ever. Also Jaime only lost his hand upon his recapture.

 

13 hours ago, Tradecraft said:

Robb sends Catelyn to Renly against her wishes. When she returns, Robb is married to Jeyne Westerling. She would have objected to the marriage if she was there, she couldn't afterwards. She thought as much when she met Jeyne. 

Sending her was one of the best calls he made, marrying to Jeyne wasn’t.

 

13 hours ago, Tradecraft said:

We're biased against female POV Chapters and, GRRM uses it against us 

Umm what? Whatever flaws you’ve listed below, plenty of male characters also share them, if anything it’s GRRM’s bias that many female povs are worse than male povs when in fact there are plenty of non pov male characters that are far worse than female povs and plenty of non pov female characters that are far better than female pov characters exist.

Seriously, how many outright evil, mad or dumb( or several together) male pov characters we have out of total male povs, compared to female ones?

Cersei for example is dumb, mad and evil all put together, no male pov to match her that I can think of.

[Corvo the Crow]

11 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

Cat's being in the Riverlands might be surprising but isn't necessarily suspicious. It's her home country; she has legitimate reasons to visit,

Yes, but not clandestinely with a single old knight who also happens to be Winterfell’s master-at-arms also unless she is visiting her distant relative lady Whent she has no reason to visit that particular area of RL where they chanced upon Tyrion.

[csuszka1948]

10 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

At the same time, there was no reason to blindly trust them either. Catelyn tells Ned that he shouldn't assume things about Robert just because he knew him before, but by the same token Catelyn should not be making assumptions about Petyr and Lysa, given she hasn't seen them for years either.

 

 

 

She doesn't need to blindly trust them to believe them. Cat thought Lysa has taken great risk sending this message which shows that it's serious, while LF has absolutely no reason to lie.

(Her advice for Ned to trust LF was the real mistake.)

Edited July 12, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

1 hour ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Catelyn also thinks he should’ve fallen for Margaery and I think she made a very bad call of immediately running back to Riverlands after Renly died when in fact she should’ve immediately rushed off to Renly’s infantry where Margaery was to arrange a betrothal between her and Robb and also Sansa and Willas. Freys can be handled through other means. 

 

 

 

Yes, it's funny that people ignore Cat's possibly biggest political mistake, which is running away with Brienne after Renly's death, implicating herself in the act. 

I completely understand why Cat did it - she didn't want an innocent woman to die - but it lost any chance of getting the Tyrells' loyalty. Frame the death on Brienne and the Lannisters and they have lost the war.

 

That said, a marriage between Robb and Margaery isn't very likely. Robb wants Northern independence, while the Tyrells desire an united Seven Kingdoms where the Tyrells (as overlords of the largest region) wield the largest influence. Robb is an old god follower, while Marg and the Reach is insistent on the Faith.

Edited July 12, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

10 hours ago, Groo said:

So, to hide the fact that she was in the Riverlands, she publicly arrests Tyrion in the middle of the Riverlands? Sure.

 

 

 

 

 

No, to hide the fact that she was hidden and came from KL. It would signal Cersei and Jaime that Ned is aware of their plotting and the role they played in Bran's fall and possibly even the investigation.

Taking Tyrion hostage would also guarantee that they wouldn't try to take Ned away the same way they did Jon Arryn.

10 hours ago, Groo said:

Arresting Tyrion was nothing but rash. The danger this put Ned and her daughters in wasn't even the biggest issue. Hoster Tully's daughter arrests Tywin Lannister's son in the middle of the Riverlands using Tully bannermen. She then takes Tywin Lannister's son to Hoster Tully's other daughter, who puts him on trial for his life. Catelyn started an obvious war between the Lannisters and Tullys.

 

 

 

 

 

No, the war started after Robert's death. Catelyn only made a semi-legal arrest and Tywin responded with sending secretly men to raid the Riverlands, but Hoster didn't fall for his trap and attacked the Lannisters.

 

Also, Tywin starting a war against a possible Tully-Arryn-Stark alliance isn't particularly clever on his part.

Finally, using Tully bannermen isn't such a mistake that you point it out to be. Without the kidnapping accident, I am pretty sure that the Riverlords would have been divided after Robert's death, with some of them backing the legal king Joffrey, it was Tywin's invasion that united them.

10 hours ago, Groo said:

She wasn't trying to protect Ned. She could have accomplished that by sending Rodrick Cassel riding back to King's Landing to warn Ned that she'd been spotted by Tyrion. No, the future Lady Stoneheart wanted to get her hands on the man she believed tried to kill her son. Consequences be damned.

 

 

Sending Rodrik to KL and travel completely alone in the roads? What prevents Tyrion from sending his men to KL or hiring men (in a similar manner to Cat) to capture Tyrion discreetly? Yes, we know that Tyrion wouldn't do that, but Cat didn't, as far as she was aware, the three Lannister siblings were already waging a shadow war (poisoning the Hand, pushing Bran out of the window, sending an assassin to kill him) against Starks and Arryns.

 

Also, the text makes it fucking clear that Catelyn wanted to hide and only ordered the capture of Tyrion after he discovered her.

 

Edited July 12, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Corvo the Crow]

1 minute ago, csuszka1948 said:

Yes, it's funny that people ignore Cat's biggest political mistake, which is running away with Brienne after Renly's death, implicating herself in the act. 

No, running away in the heat of the moment wasn’t a bad decision, I’d not say the only right one but just look at what Loras did and also even Loras kept calm, things were uncertain and it’s a miracle no fight broke out like in Bitterbridge. Where she should’ve ran off was to Margaery, if she is able to do it together with Loras it’s all the better.

 

6 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

That said, a marriage between Robb and Margaery isn't very likely. Robb wants Northern independence, while the Tyrells desire an united Seven Kingdoms where the Tyrells (as overlords of the largest region) wield the largest influence. Robb is an old god follower, while Marg and the Reach is insistent on the Faith.

Robb already has 2 kingdoms in his new kingdom and Tyrells marrying Starks could join it too, not much difference than staying in 7K and in fact it would make them the largest in a smaller kingdom. After Renly, Robb getting Iron Chair isn’t too out of the Question either, he’d have 3 kingdoms already with a 4th belonging to his cousin. No one wants Stannis on the throne and almost everyone hates Lannisters. Hand Tywin to Martells and he has Dorne After the Lannisters are utterly defeated he can depose them to install a sympathetic Westerman house or even do as Tywin planned with Sansa-Tyrion marriage. A Robb married to Margaery is actually the best option to keep the kingdom united.

[csuszka1948]

10 hours ago, Castellan said:

It is a horrible sadness and a great bit of plotting by GRRM that her decision to release jaime causes her own death and that of Robb and his bannermen because it was only Jaime's incarceration that was holding up Tywin from giving the go-ahead for the Red Wedding.

 

 

 

I am sorry, but this idea is ridiculous. Would Tywin really let Robb go back North because he has Jaime hostage? Even the last ACOK chapter (before news of Jaime's release became public) shows Roose plotting with the Lannisters against Robb.

Tywin doesn't allow hostages to intimidate him. He was seriously risking Jaime's life when he betrayed Aerys and sacked KL, but he hoped he will somehow survive. He would have done the same with the RW, taking Edmure and Catelyn hostage and trading them for Jaime. It's reasonable to believe that the Blackfish (or the very least, the defenders of Riverrun) would have obliged, but there is always a small risk that he doesn't and Jaime dies. It's still better than Robb surviving and keeping Jaime as his hostage forever.

There is a small chance that Tywin would have offered peace to Robb in exchange for returning Jaime, but Robb wasn't willing to sue for peace with the Lannisters at the beginning of ASOS even though it was clear he is in the losing position.

Edited July 12, 2023 by csuszka1948

[astarkchoice]

7 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Yes, it's funny that people ignore Cat's biggest political mistake, which is running away with Brienne after Renly's death, implicating herself in the act. 

I completely understand why Cat did it - she didn't want an innocent woman to die - but it lost any chance of getting the Tyrells' loyalty.

That said, a marriage between Robb and Margaery isn't very likely. Robb wants Northern independence, while the Tyrells desire an united Seven Kingdoms where the Tyrells (as overlords of the largest region) wield the largest influence. Robb is an old god follower, while Marg and the Reach is insistent on the Faith.

Yeah again just like with releasing jamie id say all the recent family  deaths and the stress of her oldest going into combat affected her mentaly then add in seeing an actual shadow kill a man.

She should have stood her ground and shouted to brienne to do the same , npw there is still the issue with loras comming in hot. The guys fast and lethal with that sword but if enough of the rainbow guard are there hopefully he simmers before someone is gutted.

With catlyn there openly declaring renly was killed by dark magic (stannis is known to have a witch at his side)maybe fewer men switch to his banner. Cat can then quickly act to help seal an allaince eith the tyrells , now robb  is pledged to a frey so maybe sansa to willas and edmure to margery!

Or  if she cant get brienne to stop running stay and blame her (a few seconds thought and shel know how the shadow story sounds thus letting briene take the blame over herself is the least shitty option) then ride to stannis! 

[csuszka1948]

10 hours ago, sifth said:

If only she was able to convince Robb of this instead of breaking Jamie out of prison. 

 

Robb was far away and she had no way to communicate with him.