US Politics: He's so indicted, he just can't abide by it...

[Kalbear]

4 minutes ago, Ormond said:

I'm sorry, but it makes no sense to me to say that split-ticket voting "happened more than people expected" when it happened less than it had in decades. Most political experts thought the trend for a decrease in split ticket voting would be even larger than it was? That seems rather unlikely to me. 

Most people thought that partisanship would dominate in this more than anything else AND they thought that Trump would carry those voters along with him, much like he did in 2016. That didn't happen. And an explanation was that Trump weighed down his party. 

This is kind of an important deal because it is definitely not what Trump is saying and also coincides with some behaviors we saw in 2022 with candidates Trump supported, along with the supposed red wave that didn't materialize. Two important things are in play here - that partisanship is a Big Deal, and people hate Trump. The former means that having blue candidates in red areas (and vice versa) are going to become increasingly uncommon if not absolutely nonexistent, and the latter means that there are opportunities to exploit Trump's recommendations - or to be wary of success if the candidate running in a split area is not endorsed by Trump. 

[Tywin et al.]

42 minutes ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

Minnesota (a swing state)

A "swing state" that has voted for a Democrat for president more consistently than any other state, has two Democratic senators and been run by a Democratic governor for a decade and a half. The state legislature is gerrymandered to high hell, sure, but both chambers are controlled by the DFL. The only reason it's not more consistent is because half the state's population lives in or around the Twin Cities and because of stupid reasons Northern MN has flipped from blue to red. We are in no way a swing state. 

 

Edited August 28, 2023 by Tywin et al.

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

A "swing state" that has voted for a Democrat for president more consistently than any other state, has two Democratic senators and been run by a Democratic governor for a decade and a half. The state legislature is gerrymandered to high hell, sure, but both chambers are controlled by the DFL. The only reason it's not more consistent is because half the state's population lives in or around the Twin Cities and because of stupid reasons Northern MN has flipped from blue to red. We are in no way a swing state. 

Certainly you're more swing than, say, Nebraska. 

And yes, I'm gonna call a state that went Dem by 1.5% in 2016 a swing state. Sorry! Eat more cheese and feel bad about it

[Tywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

Certainly you're more swing than, say, Nebraska. 

And yes, I'm gonna call a state that went Dem by 1.5% in 2016 a swing state. Sorry! Eat more cheese and feel bad about it

You can't call a state a swing state when they have the longest streak of voting for one party at the presidential level and have had both senate seats and the governors office in the hands of the same party for a decade and a half. The Republicans have not won a single statewide office since I was in college and if the state maps were drawn up in a fairer way they'd almost never win either state legislative bodies again. Have the margins gotten closer? Sure, but that's literally do to two reasons. Younger people from the North and South are moving to the Twin Cities with the maps not reflecting this change and the shitheads up North are angry about environmental policies and Republicans are exploiting that. There are certain state legislature and congressional races you can't always predict, but statewide it's a wrap. 

And you tell people from WI to eat cheese, not MN. Get it together man. This would be like me saying Scotland is a fictional land thinking I was talking about Wales. 

[Week]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And you tell people from WI to eat cheese, not MN. Get it together man. This would be like me saying Scotland is a fictional land thinking I was talking about Wales. 

Still in the top 6 of cheese producing states. 

[Tywin et al.]

16 minutes ago, Week said:

Still in the top 6 of cheese producing states. 

Top 6? Just say the sixth largest, which btw puts us behind NY. It's simply not an insult that would register to anyone here. Everyone would just wonder if you were confusing us with WI much like saying the same thing about corn when that's Iowa's calling card. Tell someone from MN to go jump in a lake or better yet, mock our cursed sports history. 

[Week]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Top 6? Just say the sixth largest, which btw puts us behind NY. It's simply not an insult that would register to anyone here. Everyone would just wonder if you were confusing us with WI much like saying the same thing about corn when that's Iowa's calling card. Tell someone from MN to go jump in a lake or better yet, mock our cursed sports history. 

I'm sorry, everything between Worcester and the Pacific Ocean is a bit of a blur. 

[Mindwalker]

Even the Pope finds US conservatives too right-wing!

Pope Francis has blasted the “backwardness” of some conservatives in the U.S. Catholic Church, saying they have replaced faith with ideology and that a correct understanding of Catholic doctrine allows for change over time.

Francis’ comments were an acknowledgment of the divisions in the U.S. Catholic Church, which has been split between progressives and conservatives who long found support in the doctrinaire papacies of St. John Paul II and Benedict XVI, particularly on issues of abortion and same-sex marriage.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/8/28/2190133/-Pope-says-backward-U-S-conservatives-have-replaced-faith-with-ideology

In other news, Meadows has, to the surprise of everyone, decided to take the stand in his hearing.

Meadows, who was charged earlier this month along with former President Donald Trump and 17 other people, was questioned by both his lawyers and prosecutors — with a couple of Trump’s attorneys sitting in the courtroom listening in. Cross-examination was set to continue after a lunch break. After the defense finishes its case, it will be the prosecution’s turn to call witnesses.

...

https://apnews.com/article/trump-meadows-georgia-election-indictment-2020-5667470abe4aadabb16f4a4b781a3e1c

Edited August 28, 2023 by Mindwalker

[LongRider]

44 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Everyone would just wonder if you were confusing us with WI much like saying the same thing about corn when that's Iowa's calling card.

I thought it was soybeans in Iowa, but what do I know?

Edited August 28, 2023 by LongRider

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

You can't call a state a swing state when they have the longest streak of voting for one party at the presidential level and have had both senate seats and the governors office in the hands of the same party for a decade and a half.

And yet I did. I'm so naughty

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Republicans have not won a single statewide office since I was in college and if the state maps were drawn up in a fairer way they'd almost never win either state legislative bodies again.  Have the margins gotten closer? Sure, but that's literally do to two reasons.

So...it's a swing state then. Gotcha. Georgia is in precisely the same boat, mind you - hadn't voted for a dem POTUS since 1992, elections were getting closer and closer...and now this.

Things change and the important thing to note is not the  Storied History of Democrats and instead the actual margins. 

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

And you tell people from WI to eat cheese, not MN. Get it together man. This would be like me saying Scotland is a fictional land thinking I was talking about Wales. 

So you've gotten the feel bad about it down pat

[Underfoot]

11 minutes ago, LongRider said:

I thought it was soybeans in Iowa, but what do I know?

Corn, soybeans, and pork are Iowa's thing. And, surprisingly, wind turbines? Always weird to go back home and see how many there are. 

[Mindwalker]

Oh, remember when I said they'd remove Willis? Well, they've started the process.

(Sorry, couldn't find another source just yet.)

Edited August 28, 2023 by Mindwalker

[Tywin et al.]

45 minutes ago, Week said:

I'm sorry, everything between Worcester and the Pacific Ocean is a bit of a blur. 

Well you're a Masshole so all is forgiven. It's sad @DanteGabriel is exposing poor sweet Dante Jr. to that life.

11 minutes ago, LongRider said:

I thought it was soybeans in Iowa, but what do I know?

https://stacker.com/iowa/most-valuable-crops-grown-iowa

11 minutes ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

And yet I did. I'm so naughty

So...it's a swing state then. Gotcha. Georgia is in precisely the same boat, mind you - hadn't voted for a dem POTUS since 1992, elections were getting closer and closer...and now this.

I don't think you understand the term then. In the last 90 years only two Republicans have won the state in the presidential election and the last was Nixon over 50 years ago (and Eisenhower wasn't really a Republican anyways). No state over the last century has been more consistently blue. The DFL has comfortably controlled the state. Like I said the margins are closing because of mining issues in the Iron Range, but that doesn't make us a swing state.

Maybe listen to the person with the most experience on the forum working in MN politics...

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I don't think you understand the term then.

Is the state possibly going to go Republican within a 5% margin for any of the major elections?

It's a swing state. Doesn't matter about history. 

By comparison I think we can agree that Florida right now is NOT a swing state despite it being historically quite important. 

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Maybe listen to the person with the most experience on the forum working in MN politics...

Who, DMC?

[Tywin et al.]

1 minute ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

Is the state possibly going to go Republican within a 5% margin for any of the major elections?

It's a swing state. Doesn't matter about history. 

It literally hasn't happened in recent history. This conversation is insane. The only people that call Minny a swing state are Republican talking heads trying to give a Stephen A. Smith type of hot take. You cannot call the state that has literally voted for Democratic presidential candidates the most over the last 50 years a swing state. Go home buddy, you're drunk. 

[Gaston de Foix]

So while you guys are arguing about Minnesota's cheese-eating quotient, Mark Meadow's legal team has pulled off a bit of a blinder by getting him to testify. 

While legal Twitter (particularly Ryan Goodman) are trying to poke holes in his testimony, the fate of his motion of removal will ultimately rest in the hands of the SC and he's done everything humanly possible to maximize his chances there. 

And because this motion will be decided discretely and doesn't have an immediately understandable partisan valence (like say his immunity defense), he can run out the clock and has a pretty reasonable chance of winning.  

If he can show that his activities somewhat fall within his role-responsibilities as CoS, "team player Kavanaugh" may well ride to his rescue.  The Hatch Act is not the slam-dunk people think it is because of a widespread view that it is unconstitutional under the First Amendment.  

[Kalbear]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

It literally hasn't happened in recent history.

Minnesota went Dem by 2% in 2016. Are you the kind of person that believes that QB wins are a valuable stat too? 

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

This conversation is insane. The only people that call Minny a swing state are Republican talking heads trying to give a Stephen A. Smith type of hot take. You cannot call the state that has literally voted for Democratic presidential candidates the most over the last 50 years a swing state. 

I can, I did, and it is. 

I am not the only one either! In 2016 it was one of the thirteen most competitive states:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swing_state#:~:text=According to a pre-election,%2C North Carolina%2C and Maine.

US News called it a swing state in 2020:

https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/the-2020-swing-states-minnesota-who-votes-past-results-and-why-it-matters

And then we get this awesome quote:

Quote

Notes:
- Although states such as Arizona and Minnesota have sided with one party or the other for most of the past 40 years, their results have historically been less consistent. As such, they are still considered swing states by most sources.

 

[Mindwalker]

@Gaston de Foix Stop this nonsense about politics and stuff!

Edited August 28, 2023 by Mindwalker

[Gaston de Foix]

22 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

So while you guys are arguing about Minnesota's cheese-eating quotient, Mark Meadow's legal team has pulled off a bit of a blinder by getting him to testify. 

While legal Twitter (particularly Ryan Goodman) are trying to poke holes in his testimony, the fate of his motion of removal will ultimately rest in the hands of the SC and he's done everything humanly possible to maximize his chances there. 

And because this motion will be decided discretely and doesn't have an immediately understandable partisan valence (like say his immunity defense), he can run out the clock and has a pretty reasonable chance of winning.  

If he can show that his activities somewhat fall within his role-responsibilities as CoS, "team player Kavanaugh" may well ride to his rescue.  The Hatch Act is not the slam-dunk people think it is because of a widespread view that it is unconstitutional under the First Amendment.  

In particular winning on this, strengthens his hand on the immunity motion.  And Meadows was the defendant best-placed to bring this motion and his winning strengthens every other defendant's hand.   And he's caught the prosecutors on the hop - the cross didn't go as well as Legal Twitter is convincing itself it did.  Sure, they poked holes.  But they didn't discredit his testimony completely which they could probably have done with greater preparation.  

This is excellent lawyering against difficult odds by Team Evil.  Sigh.  

[Tywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Kalnak the Magnificent said:

Minnesota went Dem by 2% in 2016.

And 7% in 2020 which is close to what it was in 2012. Trump won Texas by a smaller margin than that in the same year. Is Texas a swing state? Of course not. One dip cycle does not make a state a swing state when again it's gone for the same party for over 50 years and almost no one here is worried about it in 2024.