Was Doran smart or did he just wasted a oportunity?

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

6 hours ago, sifth said:

Pretty sure I made myself clear on Tywin; you honestly think I could like a guy who killed two children and used their bodies as peace offerings?

Tywin is my favorite villain in the series. He's also a horrible, person. A man who lacks any humanity and decency. Gregor is his enforcer, and possibly the worst human in the series; a monster in human flesh.

I'm a bit conflicted on Stannis and Renly. I use to like both, but both come off worse and worse on rereads. Stannis at the very least gets a few bonus points for helping the Night's Watch, something no other king in this series has done, but even considering murdering Edric Storm was rotten; something Stannis himself seemed to realize, though Mel was clearly wearing him down. So Stannis is a bit of a grey character for me, not as bad as Tywin or Roose, but not as good as Ned or Davos.

Then I will give to you that you are consistent, lol. And we agree about Tywin. However, I am 100% behind Renly (Renly for King!). I am glad we can agree that the Edric Storm thing was no good. Later Stannis is definitely better than early Stannis. I basically viewed Stannis as a villain in ACoK, however, saw him as semi-redeemed (in some ways) towards the end of ASoS and in ADwD. 

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

5 hours ago, SaffronLady said:

So is Doran smart or did he just waste a good opportunity watching the 5 kings kill each other?

If he wants precision, I don't see why: with a Dornish queen, surely there were more Dornish at court who were killed when Tywin sacked KL? Why not join the war and avenge them all? Why want to precisely take vengeance on Tywin and his immediate family?

Honestly, I can't decide. On one hand, I think the person who has the right of it is Ellaria Sand, and her speech is spectacular on revenge. However, if Doran's plan was always to go against House Lannister, I think the way he plays it...probably didn't save any Dornish lives at all. He is going to get tied up with (f)Aegon almost certainly, and (f)Aegon is not going to be the winner of the game of thrones, i.e. Dornish lives are going to be lost in mass. Honestly, I am not sure how much better it would be for Dorne to join another party, but who knows? Maybe Dornish troops help Stannis take King's Landing quicker, and so Stannis wins. Maybe Dornish troops would have made the difference for Robb, or distracted Tywin from going to King's Landing, therefore Stannis wins in King's Landing and Tywin ends up trapped between Robb and said Dornish troops (probably led by Oberyn?). 

I mean though, honestly, if we talk about the biggest what if...it's if Lysa had let some of her bannerman support Robb. The Vale troops 100% could have led to a huge change in how the war ends up. I know this is barely related, but the idea of a province joining the war that didn't, just makes me think about how ridiculous it is that no one tries harder to get the Vale on their side. No marriage offers or titles, or honors, or whatever offered to Lysa basically at all from Robb or Stannis (or Renly for that matter). 

[frenin]

Doran should have allied with Renly or should wait for Daenerys to come, since they are the only sure bets in this game.

He did not ally himself with Renly because he was too cautious and Doran only ever moves if he knows for certain he'll win or when he's hand is forced (which btw speaks poorly of his compromise to aid Viserys against Robert's coalition), he will not wait for Dany because Dorne has gotten out of control and is marching towards another doom regardless of him so might as well throw their lot with Aegon, bad choice Dany will come for a throne.

He also should have told Arryn to fuck off and keep the war going, honestly Jon Arryn making peace with Dorne however fragile was a goat move for an otherwise failure of a Hand.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 minutes ago, frenin said:

Doran only ever moves if he knows for certain he'll win

There was no guarantee that Dany was going to accept Quentyn's marriage proposal, though. That was quite a risky move.

[frenin]

1 minute ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

There was no guarantee that Dany was going to accept Quentyn's marriage proposal, though. That was quite a risky move.

He did not march to war there tho.

[KingAerys_II]

The alliance between Renly and Doran was almost impossible, he never considered Baratheons the rightful monarchs, then Renly doesn't care about Elia and her children, he did well by doing nothing during the war, Tully, Stark, Lannister, Baratheon, they had a role in the downfall of the Targaryens and death of Elia, Aegon was the rightful monarch, so it was good watching them killing each other. 

We must tell the truth, Renly had the weakest claim

Edited October 9, 2023 by KingAerys_II

[Arthur Peres]

7 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

The alliance between Renly and Doran was almost impossible, he never considered Baratheons the rightful monarchs, then Renly doesn't care about Elia and her children, he did well by doing nothing during the war, Tully, Stark, Lannister, Baratheon, they had a role in the downfall of the Targaryens, so it was good watching them killing each other. 

We must tell the truth, Renly had the weakest claim

Targs are more to blame for the demise of Elia and her kids, than Stark, Tully or Baratheon.

It was Rhaegar that started the mess and public humiliated his wife, Aerys that started the war, Aerys that brought Elia to KL to use her as hostage and Tywin that killed them. 

Renly was 6 when everything was going down and trapped in Storms End. Blaming him for what happened is not diferent from blaming Viserys or Daenerys.

[frenin]

50 minutes ago, KingAerys_II said:

The alliance between Renly and Doran was almost impossible

Yet he still nominally thre his lot with the Lannisters. What a man you are Doran Martell.

[KingAerys_II]

The Lannisters brutalized Aegon and Rhaenys, the heirs, they were the kids of a dornish princess and Targaryens , the Baratheons took the benefit from their deaths. 

Targaryens kids are the victims and their mother, Rhaegar died, trying to protect them

Edited October 9, 2023 by KingAerys_II

[sifth]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Yet he still nominally thre his lot with the Lannisters. What a man you are Doran Martell.

Yet another reason, why Doran's master plan feels like a retcon.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Yet he still nominally thre his lot with the Lannisters.

To be fair, I don't think he threw his lot with them. He was simply trying not to offend the most powerful family in the realm, especially given that Tywin was alive at that point.

[frenin]

29 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

To be fair, I don't think he threw his lot with them. He was simply trying not to offend the most powerful family in the realm, especially given that Tywin was alive at that point.

I said nominally.

And please, there's absolutely nothing Tywin could have done to the Martells, Tywin knows that and so should Doran.

For a quick example, since Robert and Ned's death the Vale has yet to pay taxes to the Crown, they have told the Lannisters to fuck off while Tywin was alive and now that he's dead without a single peep from the Lannisters, obviously with or without the Tyrells invading the Vale doesn't sound like a great idea. In fact Tywin's way of dealing with them was simply acting as if the Vale wasn't de facto rebelling and send Petyr to bang Lysa into the fold.

And btw, the alliance with Dorne happened at the beginning of ACOK at a time where the Lannisters were completely isolated.

The ways of Doran are truly inscrutable. He plants seeds that much is true but instead of watering them he leaves them to the mercy of tornados because he can't actually commit (cause he's too cautious). No wonder Dorne is fed up with him.

He's the opposite of Balon, both dumb for similarly yet opposite reasons.

[sifth]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

 

He's the opposite of Balon, both dumb for similarly yet opposite reasons.

At least Doran seems to honestly care about his people and his living family members. He doesn't just waist them in hopeless rebellions, the way Balon does.

[Lee-Sensei]

6 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

To be fair, I don't think he threw his lot with them. He was simply trying not to offend the most powerful family in the realm, especially given that Tywin was alive at that point.

Most powerful family? You mean the Tyrells?

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

1 hour ago, Lee-Sensei said:

Most powerful family? You mean the Tyrells?

That is the weirdest thing. Let’s be honest, whoever the Tyrells sided with would have won the war of 5 kings, yet we never really talk about them that way. If Renly had marched on King’s Landing and ignored Stannis, he would have taken it. If the Tyrells had joined Stannis, he woulf have taken King’s Landing. If the Tyrells and formed an alliance with Robb,well they would win, but I don’t know who would be king in King’s Landing. (Crackpot theory : They grab Edric Storm in this scenario and declare him Robert’s true heir through legitimization. He marries Margerry when he comes of age. Sansa marries Willas to seal the pact between Tyrell and Stark). If…somehow the Greyjoys make common cause with the Tyrells (very unlikely) but still…that coalition probably wins the war. 

[Lord of Raventree Hall]

12 hours ago, KingAerys_II said:

We must tell the truth, Renly had the weakest claim

Let’s give a what if. Melisandre doesn’t have magic shadow babies, or the shadow baby magic goes wrong. Renly doesn’t die. Stannis gets slaughtered below Storm’s End, which takes Stannis out of the line of succession. Renly marches on King’s Landing and takes it. During the fighting, I think the deaths of Joffrey and Cersei are basically garunteed, and Cersei might try to burn down half the city also. Let’s say Myrcella and Tommen are still out of the city though. So at this point, Renly is (from some viewpoints) 4th in line, after Myrcella, Tommen, and Shireen. From other viewpoints, ie the truth, he is 2nd in like after Shireen EXCEPT after the Dance or Dragons, basiclaly female contenders from the throne were ignored ans there is a precedent ro choose a brother over a daughter legitimately (including great councils or whatever that chose the heirs). So I would argue, based on precedent, at this point Renly is either first in line (uf you believe Tommen is a bastard) or secnd in line (if he is not). Honestly wasn’t there other times in the Targaryen dynasty in which children were overlooked for adult contenders (ie Aerion’s child and Daeron’s child). So, actually given that the war plays out, Renly’s claim by the end of war would be fine. 

Also if Renly is worried, he can have a baby with Margerry, and marry that baby to Shireen or Myrcella. If he chooses Shireen, force Myrcella to be a Septa and force Tommen to take the black or become a Maester. If he chooses Myrcella, same thing but Shireen as a Septa. He doesn’t eveb have to kill them to disinherit them. Westeros already has plenty of ways to disinherit.

But honestly he could probably disinherit Tommen and Myrcella easily by just going with them being bastards. Still force them to be septas or maesters respectibely, matry his heir to Shireen and call it good. I read the World book and there are so many examples of people inheriting in weird ways, potential bastards actually inheriting (like Tommen), cousins or something inheriting, inheritence squables, etc. Renly could easily be fine with the right moves and everyone acting like he wouldn’t are missing how easy it is to legitimize yourself as heir once you take the throne. 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

10 hours ago, frenin said:

And please, there's absolutely nothing Tywin could have done to the Martells, Tywin knows that and so should Doran.

Doran himself says that Dorne is incapable of winning a war on their own, which is why he has been so cautious all this time.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Takiedevushkikakzvezdy

[Lee-Sensei]

13 hours ago, frenin said:

I said nominally.

And please, there's absolutely nothing Tywin could have done to the Martells, Tywin knows that and so should Doran.

For a quick example, since Robert and Ned's death the Vale has yet to pay taxes to the Crown, they have told the Lannisters to fuck off while Tywin was alive and now that he's dead without a single peep from the Lannisters, obviously with or without the Tyrells invading the Vale doesn't sound like a great idea. In fact Tywin's way of dealing with them was simply acting as if the Vale wasn't de facto rebelling and send Petyr to bang Lysa into the fold.

And btw, the alliance with Dorne happened at the beginning of ACOK at a time where the Lannisters were completely isolated.

The ways of Doran are truly inscrutable. He plants seeds that much is true but instead of watering them he leaves them to the mercy of tornados because he can't actually commit (cause he's too cautious). No wonder Dorne is fed up with him.

He's the opposite of Balon, both dumb for similarly yet opposite reasons.

At least with Balon, I'm pretty sure that George wants us to see him as a failed conqueror. He's sort of like Dalton Greyjoy 2.0. An Old Way adherent that leads his house to destruction. George seems to want us to see Doran as a master schemer. Someone that's respected by even Tywin Lannister. That's not how he comes across though. His plans keep on failing.

5 hours ago, Lord of Raventree Hall said:

That is the weirdest thing. Let’s be honest, whoever the Tyrells sided with would have won the war of 5 kings, yet we never really talk about them that way. If Renly had marched on King’s Landing and ignored Stannis, he would have taken it. If the Tyrells had joined Stannis, he woulf have taken King’s Landing. If the Tyrells and formed an alliance with Robb,well they would win, but I don’t know who would be king in King’s Landing. (Crackpot theory : They grab Edric Storm in this scenario and declare him Robert’s true heir through legitimization. He marries Margerry when he comes of age. Sansa marries Willas to seal the pact between Tyrell and Stark). If…somehow the Greyjoys make common cause with the Tyrells (very unlikely) but still…that coalition probably wins the war. 

Yes. The Tyrells were the kingmakers. They're the reason that Renly was the most powerful person in Westeros briefly. They're the reason that Stannis was utterly crushed at the Blackwater. They're the reasons that Robb's campaign was hopeless.

I do think that trying to crown Edric would have been the best move to get rid of the Lannisters (aside from Stannis telling Robert, Renly, Ned and/or Barristan what he knew). Stannis couldn't bring himself to bend the knee to his younger brother. The Tyrells would never work with Stannis, because he's infamous for being merciless and they starved him during Roberts Rebellion. Edric is highborn on both sides, looks like Robert and Renly, was acknowledged, educated, trained, grew up at Storms End and has their charm. He's also merciful, unlike Stannis. I think he'll be the Lord of Storms End in the TWOW or ADOS. Then Robb could join forces with the Baratheons and Tyrells, the Lannisters would be crushed and he could go back North to clear out the Greyjoys. But then the story would be a lot shorter.

Edited October 10, 2023 by Lee-Sensei

[frenin]

4 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Doran himself says that Dorne is incapable of winning a war on their own, which is why he has been so cautious all this time.

That's why he  allied himself with the Lannisters at their weakest? Or did he know Renly would die and the Reach would deflect to Joffrey?

Regardless, Tywin would have never dared crossing the Martells.

 

Quote

"Did you turn into an utter fool when Tyrion shaved your beard? This is Stannis Baratheon. The man will fight to the bitter end and then some. If he is gone, it can only mean he intends to resume the war. Most likely he will land at Storm's End and try and rouse the storm lords. If so, he's finished. But a bolder man might roll the dice for Dorne. If he should win Sunspear to his cause, he might prolong this war for years. So we will not offend the Martells any further, for any reason. The Dornishmen are free to go, and you will heal Ser Gregor."

And everyone and their mother knows that marching to Dorne is akin to Vietnam. Doran simply had other plans we are not aware of.

[Lee-Sensei]

2 hours ago, frenin said:

That's why he  allied himself with the Lannisters at their weakest? Or did he know Renly would die and the Reach would deflect to Joffrey?

Regardless, Tywin would have never dared crossing the Martells.

And everyone and their mother knows that marching to Dorne is akin to Vietnam. Doran simply had other plans we are not aware of.

Tywin's respect for Doran indicates to me that he's supposed to be a great schemer. I just wish that his accomplishments backed that up. He's a good ruler though. He's very wise. I'll give him that much. This is still one of my favourite quotes in asoiaf.

Quote

“Aye," the prince said. "I told the story to Ser Balon, but not all of it. As the children splashed in the pools, Daenerys watched from amongst the orange trees, and a realization came to her. She could not tell the highborn from the low. Naked, they were only children. All innocent, all vulnerable, all deserving of long life, love, protection. "There is your realm," she told her son and heir, "remember them, on everything you do." My own mother said those same words to me when I was old enough to leave the pools. It is an easy thing for a prince to call the spears, but in the end the children pay the price. For their sake, the wise prince will wage non war without good cause, nor any war he cannot hope to win."